CRM is not cheap!

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ is not cheap!

Just because it trades for the lowest P/FCF multiple ever at 12, doesn't mean it's a buy!

1) Historical multiples are backward-looking. There is a reason that CRM traded for 38x P/FCF in 2018. They were growing top-line at 25%, and EBIT margin was at 4%. There was a lot of potential for growth and margin expansion.

2) P/FCF is not actually 12, because SBC is 8.5% of revenues, about the same as in 2018. It was one thing to have SBC when you are growing at 25% and completely another when you can't crack 10%.

3) Adjusting for SBC, P/FCF is actually 16. SBC eats away 23% of FCF.

4) Acquisitions are stinkers, $58B of Goodwill

- $8B for Informatica

- $15.7B for Tableau

- $27.7B for Slack

The company doesn't have a record of accretive acquisitions. Now they must figure out what to do with these companies, and there are few synergies.

Informatica management knew Benioff is a sucker who buys everything. If he didn't buy them last year, Informatica would be trading for 50% less.

Microsoft Teams ate Slack's lunch.

Tableau will get disrupted by AI, which can make dashboards in seconds.

For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now

Find out more here.

Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.

Click to access the activity

Other helpful links:

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

2

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":537220037153416,"tweetId":"537220037153416","gmtCreate":1772177776121,"gmtModify":1772177964739,"author":{"id":9000000000000725,"idStr":"9000000000000725","authorId":9000000000000725,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000725","name":"AfraSimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d30a827da942c1b0307f51e832534e","vip":8,"userType":8,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.03.01","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":759,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fc35338856e6d3ecd6b2f736b25dc98","width":"1600","height":"1133"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62e040c4d73c741662d709873cd4f330"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c1f52f0ec3a2f13f04e1a6a1b8cfcc6"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fc35338856e6d3ecd6b2f736b25dc98","width":"1600","height":"1133"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62e040c4d73c741662d709873cd4f330"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c1f52f0ec3a2f13f04e1a6a1b8cfcc6"}],"title":"CRM is not cheap!","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><a data-mention-id=\"CRM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Salesforce.com\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a> is not cheap!</p>\n<p>Just because it trades for the lowest P/FCF multiple ever at 12, doesn't mean it's a buy!</p>\n<p>1) Historical multiples are backward-looking. There is a reason that CRM traded for 38x P/FCF in 2018. They were growing top-line at 25%, and EBIT margin was at 4%. There was a lot of potential for growth and margin expansion.</p>\n<p>2) P/FCF is not actually 12, because SBC is 8.5% of revenues, about the same as in 2018. It was one thing to have SBC when you are growing at 25% and completely another when you can't crack 10%.</p>\n<p>3) Adjusting for SBC, P/FCF is actually 16. SBC eats away 23% of FCF.</p>\n<p>4) Acquisitions are stinkers, $58B of Goodwill</p>\n<p>- $8B for Informatica</p>\n<p>- $15.7B for Tableau</p>\n<p>- $27.7B for Slack</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\" \" title=\" \" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fc35338856e6d3ecd6b2f736b25dc98\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"1133\"><span> </span></p>\n<p>The company doesn't have a record of accretive acquisitions. Now they must figure out what to do with these companies, and there are few synergies.</p>\n<p>Informatica management knew Benioff is a sucker who buys everything. If he didn't buy them last year, Informatica would be trading for 50% less.</p>\n<p>Microsoft Teams ate Slack's lunch.</p>\n<p>Tableau will get disrupted by AI, which can make dashboards in seconds.</p>\n<hr>\n<h2 id=\"id_3726167488\" style=\"text-align: start;\"><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.</span></h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/507537437684112\" title=\"🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks &amp; ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks &amp; ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now</a></p>\n<h2 id=\"id_2434358027\" style=\"text-align: start;\"><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">Find out more here.</span></h2>\n<blockquote>\n <p>Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get <strong>SGD 688 stock vouchers</strong>*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account:<strong> Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.</strong></p>\n <p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/link?target=https%3A%2F%2Fsg.tigermarketw.com%2Factivity2%2Fmarket%2F2025%2Fcontra-invitation%3Flang%3Den_US%26useAnimation%3Dtrue\" title=\"Click to access the activity\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">Click to access the activity</a></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62e040c4d73c741662d709873cd4f330\"></p>\n</blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Other helpful links:</strong></p>\n<ul style=\"\">\n <li>\n  <p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/367769452580952\" title=\"💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉</a></p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/06324754?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"How to open a CBA.\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">How to open a CBA.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/how-to-link-CDP?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"How to link your CDP account.\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">How to link your CDP account.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/contra-faq?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"Other FAQs on CBA.\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">Other FAQs on CBA.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/invest/cash-boost\" title=\"Cash Boost Account Website.\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">Cash Boost Account Website.</a></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c1f52f0ec3a2f13f04e1a6a1b8cfcc6\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a data-mention-id=\"CRM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Salesforce.com\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a> is not cheap!</p>\n<p>Just because it trades for the lowest P/FCF multiple ever at 12, doesn't mean it's a buy!</p>\n<p>1) Historical multiples are backward-looking. There is a reason that CRM traded for 38x P/FCF in 2018. They were growing top-line at 25%, and EBIT margin was at 4%. There was a lot of potential for growth and margin expansion.</p>\n<p>2) P/FCF is not actually 12, because SBC is 8.5% of revenues, about the same as in 2018. It was one thing to have SBC when you are growing at 25% and completely another when you can't crack 10%.</p>\n<p>3) Adjusting for SBC, P/FCF is actually 16. SBC eats away 23% of FCF.</p>\n<p>4) Acquisitions are stinkers, $58B of Goodwill</p>\n<p>- $8B for Informatica</p>\n<p>- $15.7B for Tableau</p>\n<p>- $27.7B for Slack</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\" \" title=\" \" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fc35338856e6d3ecd6b2f736b25dc98\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"1133\"><span> </span></p>\n<p>The company doesn't have a record of accretive acquisitions. Now they must figure out what to do with these companies, and there are few synergies.</p>\n<p>Informatica management knew Benioff is a sucker who buys everything. If he didn't buy them last year, Informatica would be trading for 50% less.</p>\n<p>Microsoft Teams ate Slack's lunch.</p>\n<p>Tableau will get disrupted by AI, which can make dashboards in seconds.</p>\n<hr>\n<h2 id=\"id_3726167488\" style=\"text-align: start;\"><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.</span></h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/507537437684112\" title=\"🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks &amp; ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks &amp; ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now</a></p>\n<h2 id=\"id_2434358027\" style=\"text-align: start;\"><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">Find out more here.</span></h2>\n<blockquote>\n <p>Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get <strong>SGD 688 stock vouchers</strong>*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account:<strong> Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.</strong></p>\n <p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/link?target=https%3A%2F%2Fsg.tigermarketw.com%2Factivity2%2Fmarket%2F2025%2Fcontra-invitation%3Flang%3Den_US%26useAnimation%3Dtrue\" title=\"Click to access the activity\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">Click to access the activity</a></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62e040c4d73c741662d709873cd4f330\"></p>\n</blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Other helpful links:</strong></p>\n<ul style=\"\">\n <li>\n  <p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/367769452580952\" title=\"💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉</a></p></li>\n <li>\n  <p><a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/06324754?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"How to open a CBA.\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">How to open a CBA.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/how-to-link-CDP?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"How to link your CDP account.\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">How to link your CDP account.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/contra-faq?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"Other FAQs on CBA.\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">Other FAQs on CBA.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/invest/cash-boost\" title=\"Cash Boost Account Website.\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rich-text-anchor __anchor-intercept-flag__ text-content-link\">Cash Boost Account Website.</a></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c1f52f0ec3a2f13f04e1a6a1b8cfcc6\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","text":"$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ is not cheap! Just because it trades for the lowest P/FCF multiple ever at 12, doesn't mean it's a buy! 1) Historical multiples are backward-looking. There is a reason that CRM traded for 38x P/FCF in 2018. They were growing top-line at 25%, and EBIT margin was at 4%. There was a lot of potential for growth and margin expansion. 2) P/FCF is not actually 12, because SBC is 8.5% of revenues, about the same as in 2018. It was one thing to have SBC when you are growing at 25% and completely another when you can't crack 10%. 3) Adjusting for SBC, P/FCF is actually 16. SBC eats away 23% of FCF. 4) Acquisitions are stinkers, $58B of Goodwill - $8B for Informatica - $15.7B for Tableau - $27.7B for Slack The company doesn't have a record of accretive acquisitions. Now they must figure out what to do with these companies, and there are few synergies. Informatica management knew Benioff is a sucker who buys everything. If he didn't buy them last year, Informatica would be trading for 50% less. Microsoft Teams ate Slack's lunch. Tableau will get disrupted by AI, which can make dashboards in seconds. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now Find out more here. Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP. Click to access the activity Other helpful links: 💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉 How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/537220037153416","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["CRM"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1508,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/537220037153416"}