A move above $100 is possible, but it depends on whether the situation becomes a true supply disruption rather than only a geopolitical risk premium.

Bullish case (towards $95–$110):

1. Strait of Hormuz risk. Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the strait. Even partial disruption or tanker insurance spikes could remove several million barrels per day from the market.

2. Low spare capacity outside OPEC+. If Gulf exports slow, the market has limited short-term buffers.

3. War-risk hedging. Funds often buy crude futures aggressively during geopolitical shocks, amplifying the price spike.

Bearish case (pullback to $73–$75):

1. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release by the U.S. to stabilise energy prices.

2. Demand elasticity. Above $90, demand destruction historically appears quickly.

3. Premium unwinding. If the Hormuz closure risk fades, the geopolitical premium can disappear rapidly, causing a “gap fill”.

My base case:

Short term: $85–$95 volatility likely.

Only a real supply interruption pushes crude above $100.

If tensions cool, the market could retrace toward $73–$75 as the war premium unwinds.

In other words, oil is currently trading more on geopolitics than fundamentals, which makes the move fragile and headline-driven.