Crude’s surge to ~$81 WTI is largely a geopolitical risk premium, not yet a structural supply shock. The key variable is still the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of global oil flows move through that chokepoint, so even the perception of disruption can add $10–$20 to prices quickly.

Bull case for $100+:

Any partial disruption to Hormuz tanker traffic.

Insurance premiums spike and shipping slows.

OPEC spare capacity cannot respond fast enough.

Speculative flows pile into energy as a hedge.

In that scenario, $95–$105 Brent is very plausible short term.

Bear case toward $73:

No physical disruption actually occurs.

The U.S. releases barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

War risk premium fades like previous Middle East spikes.

Macro demand concerns re-emerge.

Historically, geopolitical spikes often mean-revert once supply keeps flowing.

My view:

Unless Hormuz is physically disrupted, this looks more like a risk premium spike than a supply crisis. That means oil may trade $75–$90 rather than sustaining $100.

The real signal to watch is tanker flow through Hormuz, not headlines. If shipping slows, $100 oil becomes very realistic. If not, the market may indeed “gap fill” back toward the mid-$70s.