Short answer first

Very realistically, the key levels now are:

6520 first support

6300 correction level

6000 strong support / panic zone

5400 worst-case oil shock scenario

So yes, 6300 is very possible. 6000 is not impossible if oil stays high and war escalates.

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What is driving this selloff

The market is currently being hit by three macro shocks at the same time:

1. Oil above $100 → inflation risk

2. Fed delaying rate cuts → higher rates longer

3. Middle East war → geopolitical risk

This combination creates stagflation risk, which is historically one of the worst environments for equities. 

That is why VIX is spiking and markets are selling off.

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Important technical levels (very important)

From multiple banks and technical analysts:

Level Meaning

6600 Major support (already breaking)

6520 Short-term floor

6300 Correction level (~10% drop)

6200 Strong support

6000 Panic / oil shock scenario

5400 Severe oil crisis scenario

Analysts warn that if 6600 fails, the S&P 500 could drop toward 6000. 

JP Morgan also expects a correction toward around 6270. 

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How much further this week?

Realistic scenarios:

Scenario 1 – War stabilises

Market drops to 6400–6500, then rebounds.

Scenario 2 – Oil stays > $100

Market drops to 6300.

Scenario 3 – Hormuz closes / escalation

Market drops to 6000.

Scenario 4 – Severe oil shock

Extreme case 5400 (Goldman scenario). 

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My macro view

Personally, I think the market is entering a correction, not a crash.

Typical bull market correction:

Usually 10–15%

From 7000 high → correction target 6300–6000

That fits perfectly with current projections

So the most logical range:

> Likely bottom zone: 6000 – 6300

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Strategy (important)

If you are investing, not trading:

I would scale like this:

Small buy: 6400

Add: 6300

Bigger add: 6100

Heavy buy: 6000 or below

Trying to catch the exact bottom is impossible.

But buying during VIX spikes historically works very well.

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Big picture

This is the key thing most people miss:

The market is not falling because earnings collapsed.

It is falling because:

> Oil → Inflation → No rate cuts → Valuation compression

So this is a macro correction, not a company fundamentals collapse.

That usually means:

> When oil stabilises, the market will rally very fast.