Lanceljx
03-23

The conflict has shifted from military targets to energy infrastructure, which is extremely serious for global markets.


Why oil and gas are surging


Several major developments happened:


Strikes on oil refineries, gas fields, LNG facilities


Threat to close the Strait of Hormuz


About 20% of global oil and LNG supply passes through Hormuz


Damage to gas infrastructure and LNG exports already reducing supply



This is why oil moved above $110 and gas surged. The situation is being described by analysts as the biggest energy disruption since the 1970s oil crisis. 


This is not a normal geopolitical event anymore.

This is becoming an energy war.



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Macro impact on markets (very important)


This situation affects all asset classes:


Asset Impact


Oil Up

Natural Gas Up

Inflation Up

Interest rates Stay high

Stocks Down

Gold Short-term down

USD Up

Energy stocks Up



So the market is currently pricing stagflation risk.


This is why:


Stocks falling


Gold falling


Oil rising


VIX rising


Bond yields rising



Very unusual combination, but typical during energy shocks.



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The most important variable now


Everything depends on Strait of Hormuz.


If Hormuz:


Reopens → Oil drops → Stocks rally → Gold rally


Partially blocked → Oil $110–130 → Stocks correction


Fully blocked → Oil $150+ → Global recession risk



This single location controls ~20% of world oil supply.



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Market scenario framework now


Think of markets like this:


Scenario Oil S&P 500


De-escalation $90 6800

Current tension $110 6300

Hormuz disruption $130 6000

Full energy crisis $150+ 5400



So earlier when you asked about 6300 or 6000, that is actually consistent with oil scenarios.



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My macro view now


We are entering a period similar to:


1973 oil crisis


1990 Gulf War


2022 Ukraine energy shock



In these environments:


Energy stocks outperform


Commodities outperform


Gold volatile but eventually rises


Growth stocks underperform


Markets very volatile




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Very important conclusion


Right now the global market is no longer driven by:


> Earnings, AI, tech, Fed




It is driven by:


> Oil, war, inflation, interest rates




So to predict stocks now, watch oil, not Nvidia.


If oil stays above $110, equities likely continue correcting.

Oil Pullback While Banks See $120: Is the War Risk Still On The Table?
Iran is implementing a “targeted strategy”: instead of indiscriminately blocking all shipping lanes, it is allowing only vessels from specific countries to pass. Analysts warn that the global oil market is severely underestimating the disruptive impact of this strategy. Due to the extreme lack of transparency in passage criteria, war risk premiums have not declined—instead, they continue to surge because of unpredictable risks. Although oil prices have recently pulled back, Has the risk ended? Will Brent crude break above Citi’s projected $120 ceiling and surge toward $140?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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