Reward 500 Tiger-coinsWith Trump restarting “TACO”, coupled with rampant rumors that he might visit China in April, global financial markets have once again entered the absolute-dominance zone of the “US stock first principles: just follow Trump’s calls.” $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
1. Macro strategists’ “Ragnarok”: Trump becomes the only right one
Remember those highly praised strategists at Deutsche Bank, Citi, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley? Now in the face of absolute power, technical analysis turns into mysticism.
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100% bottom-fishing success rate: Trump tells you to buy, ignore the earnings report.
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100% crude oil short success rate: Trump says oil is too high — even if the Middle East is on fire, the shorts have to retreat.
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Middle East chaos: Even if the war worsens, if Trump says talks are coming, the market obeys.
The current market logic is simple: the world’s best macro analysts are at Mar-a-Lago.
2. Stock market joke: Why always a “five-day negotiation cycle”?
Why does he always set a “five-day” negotiation window? Because there are five trading days in a week.
Friday close: Shouting, threatening, extreme pressure — leaving everyone anxious over the weekend.
Before Monday open: Another TACO. Due to time zones, East Asian markets (A-shares, HK, Nikkei) often take the first hit.
Repeat cycle: Last night he claims an agreement, market surges; an hour later the other side denies it, gains evaporate. Targeting newly entered, nervous retail investors.
3. Oil Prices & CPI: Is stagflation really coming?
Although Trump is trying to suppress expectations, the fundamental tug-of-war remains brutal. Right now, focus on the Strait of Hormuz dynamics:
Key warning: every 10% rise in oil prices pushes U.S. CPI up by roughly 0.2–0.3 points.
No matter when the war ends, as long as $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2606(BZmain)$ stays high, Fed rate cuts will be delayed. Low labor growth versus sticky wages — the shadow of “stagflation” is looming overhead.
Additionally, with April China visit rumors, if it happens, short-term sentiment swings could be huge. Follow the call rhythm closely. Beware of Trump “fake moves” — like the repeated Iran agreement flips, his good news often comes with a reverse blow, so take profits fast.
Since rate cuts are blocked, be cautious with bonds and equities.
💬 Discussion Questions:
How do you view Trump’s first-principle logic?
Will stagflation actually arrive?
Has the market finished falling, or is more downside still ahead?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Comments
Thanks to Trump & the Iran war, oil has skyrocketed over USD 100, tariffs are back, hiring is slowing & consumers are feeling the pinch. Trump's rhythm - unpredictable, loud & dramatic keeps markets on their toes.
How should investors invest if the stag decides to visit?
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@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
On stagflation, I think it’s a risk, not the base case. If Brent crude oil stays high while growth slows, the Fed gets stuck — that’s the real concern. But demand destruction or policy moves could still cap oil, so I’m watching energy closely rather than positioning aggressively for stagflation.
As for the market, I don’t see a clean bottom yet — more of a headline-driven range. Rallies can be fast but fragile, so I’m trading tactically, taking profits quicker, and staying flexible.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub
Current market sentiment as of March 2026 is dominated by fears of "stagflation lite"—a period of slowing growth paired with stubbornly high inflation. Specific downside remains a subject of intense debate, the interplay between aggressive trade policies and geopolitical shocks has created a high-volatility environment for investors.
The administration’s logic is rooted in a "transactional nationalist" framework, prioritizing direct US leverage over traditional rules-based systems.
Protectionism as Growth: First-principles logic here suggests that by raising tariffs US can force local production & reduce trade deficits.
Will Stagflation Arrive?
Experts believe it is already here, though may be less severe than the 1970s variety.
Bottomed or More Downside?
Markets are currently in a "risk-off" holding pattern.
Actionable Outlook: Sentiment remains fragile. Investors are rotating into defensive assets like gold, energy commodities, short-duration cash to hedge against further downside.
Stagflation is no longer a distant threat; it is our current reality. With Brent crude hovering stubbornly above $110, input costs are surging while global GDP growth forecasts are being slashed. This creates a toxic environment where central banks cannot easily cut rates to save the stock market without fueling inflation further. The data shows a clear divergence: while tech stocks attempt a "TACO" bounce, the underlying bond market is pricing in long-term inflationary pressure. We are firmly in a cycle where cash and hard assets outperform traditional growth-oriented portfolios.
Stagflation has materialized from theoretical risk. Energy price shocks, persistent inflation, and slowing activity create textbook conditions mirroring 1971-1973 and 1979-1981 oil crises 324. This environment favors defensive assets while punishing equities.
The S&P 500 (SPY at $653.18) faces technical support versus fundamental deterioration. Testing critical $655.32 support with 25% short volume, capital outflows (-$166.58M), and stagflation risks suggest technical bounces may be temporary. The market needs sustained recovery above $670 resistance amid persistent inflation and slowing growth.
Repeat cycle: Last night he claims an agreement, market surges; an hour later the other side denies it, gains evaporate. Targeting newly entered, nervous retail investors.