$SPY Breakdown Accelerates, $620 Test Likely, $600 in Play

Michael Esther
03-31

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is breaking down fast right now.

We topped around $690–$697 and have now lost key supports at $677, $652, and $635 today.

We’re now trading near $631…and there’s not much support below.

The next major level is $620 for me.

That’s the first real zone where buyers should step in.

Below that? $600 becomes the magnet.

Here’s how I see it:

70% chance we test $620

30–40% chance we break under $600

Right now, momentum is bearish.

But the reaction at $620 is everything.

If buyers step in strong → we bounce.

If not → this accelerates fast to $600.

Macro matters here too.

War = uncertainty

Uncertainty = volatility

Volatility = downside pressure

I still believe the market likely finds a bottom in March/April if this conflict resolves quickly.

But if this drags longer…Then $600 won’t hold.

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