A 100% Win Rate？ Learn Two Proven Strategies from CNBC's "Markets in Turmoil"

Two Proven Strategies from CNBC's "Markets in Turmoil"

Can you really time the market with a 100% win rate? According to CNBC's own history, maybe yes.

Let's look at two simple strategies.

Strategy #1: The "Markets in Turmoil" Effect

Whenever CNBC airs a special episode called "Markets in Turmoil" (usually during extreme panic)…

One year later, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is ALWAYS higher.

Average gain: +40%

That's a 100% win rate. Not a single loss.

Why?

When everyone is terrified, it's often the best time to buy.

Strategy #2: The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ 35/15 Rule

The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ is called the "fear index." It measures how scared the market is.

Simple rule:

Buy the $S&P 500 when $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ > 35 (very scared)

Sell when $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ < 15 (very calm)

Win rate: 95.8%

Why?

Extreme fear = good time to buy. Extreme calm = good time to sell.

Questions for Consideration

Do you consider these strategies to be trustworthy? Please explain your reasoning.
Would you follow or reference these strategies in your own investment approach? Why or why not?

We invite you to share your perspective in the comments section below.

S&P, Dow Break Records: Would January Effect Last?

S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed at record highs. As January goes, so goes the year. When January closes positive, the S&P 500 is higher 89% of the time, with an average gain of 17% and an average maximum drawdown of 10.5%. When January is negative, average returns fall to -1.8%, with only a 50% hit rate and deeper market drawdowns. How do you see 2026 unfolding? Will U.S. equities continue to deliver double-digit gains, or lag behind other global markets? Will AI leadership rotate toward memory stocks or SaaS companies?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Shyon
04-07
Shyon
I find both strategies interesting, but I wouldn’t take the “100% win rate” literally. CNBC’s “Markets in Turmoil” makes sense psychologically — extreme fear often marks a bottom — but it’s based on limited historical context. Similarly, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ being higher a year later reflects long-term upward bias, not a guaranteed signal.

The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ 35/15 rule feels more practical since it measures market sentiment. High VIX shows panic, low VIX shows complacency, but I see it as a guideline rather than a strict rule — markets can stay fearful or calm longer than expected.

I wouldn’t rely on these strategies alone, but I’d use them as a sentiment overlay. For me, it’s about scaling in during fear, staying disciplined, and avoiding emotional moves, rather than trying to time the market perfectly.

@Tiger_chat @TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_comments
highhand
04-07
highhand
yes. companies keep growing revenue and earnings. war will end. index keep pushing out lousy companies and bringing in profit making ones. index always go up long term. war and news are short term. inflation is real from money printing. money needs to go or held where. where better than the stock market which is more liquid than property for example.
ECLC
04-14
ECLC
These strategies are somewhat useful lately with high market volatilities. Yet to experience 100% win rate due to stock selections and timing but still good.