The market pricing of AI infrastructure implies an extremely optimistic assumption: data centers can be built at a pace that matches the speed of capital investment. The reality is that capital can be put into place overnight, but transformers cannot. When the four tech giants lavish 650 billion dollars in annual capital expenditures, investors must ask the uncomfortable but inevitable question: Will the money be spent? If nearly half of the data centers are delayed, that means that conversion efficiency of capital expenditures is greatly reduced, AI expansion will be significantly slower than market expectations, and those valuation multiples based on the "exponential growth" narrative will eventually face the gravity of the physical world.
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