$新傳企劃(01284)$  

How crazy the retail investors are. The triple leveraged ETF SOXL, which makes semiconductors more than $1 billion in net inflows, a record since its establishment in 2010. Cerebras went public with an initial initial public offering of $185, closing up 68% on its first day, raising more than $5.5 billion. When everyone's money is squeezed into the same leverage corner, as long as there is a slight disturbance, such as a rise in debt yields, the market will experience a tragic situation of people stepping on people. This is the end-of-the-life of crowd irrationality overrides risk pricing mechanisms.

Investment markets never believe in tears, they only reflect the extreme values of human greed and fear. We are now facing a complex time of excessive liquidity, AI belief fever, but also physical inflation backlash and geopolitical extremes. Don't miss the rising waves because of fear of bubbles, and don't lose your rationale because of greed. Stay awake and discipline is paramount.

SOXL record-setting capital inflow – retail investors at All-in Semiconductor

In human history, there has never been a company with an annual revenue of about $15.6 billion that has been valued by the market at $1.75 trillion. It's not mathematics, it's religion, it's Elon Musk.

SpaceX is expected to launch in June, with valuations keeping up to $1.75 trillion, and sales could reach 112 times. By comparison, Apple is eight times higher than Nvidia's peak in the AI craze is just 35 times higher

JD Group (09618), JD Health (06618), JD Logistics (02618), and JD Industrial (07618), announced share buybacks, totaling 2.4 billion US dollars (approximately HK$18.72 billion).

For the six consecutive weeks of rising, the index has risen by 16%. The more extreme figure is: 10 stocks contributed a 69% increase during this period, while the remaining 490 stocks together accounted for only 31%. Of those, Alphabet, NVIDIA, and Amazon contributed 15%, 10% and 8% respectively. This is not a healthy bull market structure. It's a highly concentrated capital movement driven by AI belief. As long as the AI narrative doesn't collapse, this machine will continue to operate. But once there’s a crack—whether it’s a tech titan’s performance falls short, or AI’s ability to monetize—the downside risk of the entire index is dramatically amplified because there’s no broad profit base underneath.

Only 22% of the S&P 500 outperformed the index itself—the third lowest reading since 1996. In other words, this historical high is a solo dance of a very small number of stocks

$天津建發(02515)$  

Palantir continues to have a stronghold in its government business, where its early start in the defense sector and deep relationships in Washington limit its vulnerabilities. In the first year of the second Trump administration, Palantir was awarded more than $1.1 billion in federal contracts, a 70% increase from the prior year. Palantir has become the operating system for the Defense Department. Its command-and-control Maven Smart System is set to become an official program of record, a highly desired status for defense contracts

Ddog has successfully moved beyond simple cloud monitoring to evolve into an infrastructure protection network for Agentic AI systems. Its products hit the most painful blind spot when enterprises expand AI: GPU resource health monitoring and automated security analysis. Big customers have extremely high viscosity. $Datadog(DDOG)$  

The $400 million UK fraud fee was beyond market expectations and also led to a larger-than-expected increase in credit loss (ECL) in the first quarter $滙豐控股(00005)$  

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$   That is the Palantir warning now. The Q1 report was strong. The government business is real. But that does not mean the stock is a good investment at any price. At today’s valuation, investors are not just paying for Palantir’s current business. They are paying for years of future execution that still has to happen.

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$   This has happened before. Microsoft was one of the best businesses in the world during the dot-com bubble. It was not a broken company. It had revenue, earnings, cash, and dominance. In fiscal 2000, Microsoft generated $22.96 billion of revenue, $9.42 billion of net income, and $1.70 of diluted EPS. The business was still compounding, but the stock price had already pulled too much of the future into the present. Then the valuation reset hit. In fiscal 2001, Microsoft revenue still grew to $25.30 billion, and operating income increased to $11.72 billion. The company was still printing cash. In fiscal 2002, revenue grew again to $28.37 billion, net income recovered to $7.83 billion, and cash and short-

$新傳企劃(01284)$  

As long as the upward trend of EPS (currently adjusted to $331.23) remains unchanged, every plunge due to war news is a "discount day" for quality assets.

Last night the market was not affected by oil prices of the aviation sector, but the traditional logistics leader. Amazon announced the opening of its supply chain services, which is a tantamount declaration of war on FedEx and UPS$聯合包裹(UPS)$  $聯邦快遞(FDX)$  

Watch the flow of money into the options market, and the single-day call purchase of retail investors surged to nearly 9 million contracts, up 350% since the March low. This extremely bullish derivative speculation is essentially a group's compensatory behavior towards 'FOMO'. Individual investors refuse to believe in the destructive power of the high-interest environment, trying to use the last liquidity to absorb the high valuation of technology stocks.

The investment logic in the mainland technology sector has undergone a fundamental shift, which is expected to have an impact on the market. The central government ordered the cancellation of a $2bn deal for Meta to buy Chinese AI start-up Manus, and told many AI companies including Moonshot AI and Stepfun that they are not allowed to accept US capital; and TikTok's parent company, Byte Dance， is not allowed to sell second-hand shares to US investors without government approval. There are signs that the US venture capital (primarily from pension funds and university endowments) which used to be actively involved in financing China's technology industry will be subject to more severe restrictions. The uncertainty over approval of tech companies moving from market-driven to government approv