From my perspective, the rate decision itself doesn’t matter — the pause is priced. What matters is whether Jerome Powell signals continuity or an exit. If he stays on as Governor, markets get stability; if he leaves entirely, that introduces uncertainty, which is far more disruptive than rates staying higher. That leadership clarity could matter more than any single data point in the near term.
On Kevin Warsh, I think the market is too optimistic. He’s not meaningfully more dovish than Powell, so if cuts don’t materialize, equities could face a sharp repricing — especially with positioning already stretched.
My bigger concern is the macro shift. With OpenAI missing expectations and yields rising, the market is moving from FOMO to FAFO. If growth and liquidity both weaken, the AI trade could see a broader de-rating rather than just a short-term pullback.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments