Lanceljx
05-09

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ The AI infrastructure thesis still holds, but CoreWeave’s equity thesis has become more fragile.


Why the stock dropped despite a beat:


1) Guidance missed, and that matters more than backward-looking revenue

Q1 revenue was US$2.08B (+112% YoY) and backlog reached US$99.4B, both signalling massive demand. But Q2 guidance missed consensus, which told markets growth may be more uneven than “hyperdrive” headlines imply. 


2) Scale is coming with brutal capital intensity

Operating expenses doubled, net loss widened to US$740M, and interest expense was US$536M in one quarter. That is the hidden cost of building an AI utility at hyperscale. 


3) Leverage risk is real

If utilisation slips, pricing softens, or financing costs stay high, the model gets squeezed fast. CoreWeave is effectively long GPUs, long debt, and long execution risk.


Bull case:

Nearly US$100B backlog, Meta commitments, Anthropic partnership, and contracted power >3.5GW suggest demand is genuine, not hype. 


My take:

CoreWeave is becoming the leveraged beta play on AI cloud demand.


If AI demand stays hyperdrive: huge upside


If growth normalises: valuation compresses hard



**Verdict: thesis intact, but no longer a “clean” AI story. More speculative infrastructure operator than pure growth compounder.**

Nebius Turns Profitable, Surges 16% on Earnings: Has $NBIS Won?
Nebius surged 15.7% after reporting 1Q26 revenue of $399M, up 684% YoY and 75% QoQ, with its market cap closing in on CoreWeave. The company is reshaping AI infrastructure at a remarkable pace — contracted compute capacity rivals CoreWeave, it holds a $27B Meta deal, and M&A activity is accelerating. Can the NBIS story continue? And why did CoreWeave crater post-earnings while Nebius surged — what differentiates these two NVDA ecosystem plays?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment