Lanceljx
05-10

I think HBM still has upside, but easy money is no longer easy.


Bull case, cycle not done


AI accelerator demand remains structurally strong, led by NVIDIA, custom ASICs from hyperscalers, and broader enterprise AI adoption.


HBM is not commodity DRAM. It is high-complexity, packaging-constrained, and qualification-heavy. Supply cannot ramp overnight.


Beneficiaries remain clear: Micron Technology, SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, plus ecosystem names like SanDisk on broader memory repricing.



Bear case, valuation is running ahead


This week’s sharp move likely pulled forward part of 2H expectations.


Once Samsung and SK hynix commit materially more wafer capacity, markets will start pricing the next oversupply phase before it arrives.


Memory stocks historically peak when sentiment is strongest.



My base case


HBM: bullish into 2027


Commodity NAND/DRAM: watchful, more cyclical


Near term: healthy consolidation would be normal after a vertical rally



My positioning call:


> Hold core, trim momentum, buy pullbacks.

Not a sector I would short, but not one I would chase blindly after a 15 to 16 per cent spike either.

Samsung Strike Flips Memory Narrative, Micron Surges to $800: Still Buy?
Micron surged 4.8% to $800, pushing its market cap toward $900B, as Samsung worker strikes reversed the prior session's bearish thesis that Korean capacity expansion would pressure prices. The supply-side shock supports a tighter HBM and DRAM outlook. Two-day volatility — down then sharply up — underscores the market's extreme sensitivity to memory supply-demand inflection points. How long the Samsung strike lasts and how negotiations unfold will determine how far this rebound can run. Do you dare to chase at $800?
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