Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 11May2026)
Housing Market
Existing home sales for April are forecast at 4.05 million units, up from the previous 3.98 million. This is a useful indicator of the overall health of the real estate market.
Inflation Data
The most closely watched economic release in the coming week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). The forecast is 3.7%, compared with the previous 3.3%. If inflation rises as expected, market volatility may increase. Core CPI will also be important to watch, with a forecast of 0.3% versus the previous 0.2%.
Bond Market Signals
The bond market remains an important reference point as investors weigh opportunities in stocks versus bonds, with interest rates playing a key role in that decision. This is why the upcoming 10-year note auction and 30-year bond auction deserve close attention. If yields continue to trend higher, investors may shift more money into bonds for safety, leaving less capital flowing into stocks and equities.
Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for April is also expected, with a forecast of 0.5%. PPI reflects inflation at the producer level before those costs are passed on to consumers. For that reason, many investors view it as an early signal for upcoming CPI trends.
Consumer and Labour Indicators
Other notable releases include April’s retail sales and core retail sales, which are useful gauges of consumer strength. Initial jobless claims, forecast at 206,000, will also be an important labour-market indicator. Together, these data points will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves on inflation and interest rates.
Earnings Calendar (11May2026)
The coming week includes several notable earnings releases, including NU, Sea Limited, Alibaba, Cisco, and Applied Materials.
Alibaba
Alibaba stands out as one of the key names to watch this week ahead of earnings.
Recent performance: The stock is up 11.78% from a year ago.
Analyst view: Technical analysis points to a strong buy, and analyst sentiment also remains strongly positive.
Price target: The average analyst price target is about $185, implying upside of roughly 32% to 35% from recent levels.
Valuation: With earnings per share around 5.73 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.2, the valuation appears relatively attractive.
Financial performance
Key financial trends from 2021 to 2025 are summarised below (figures in RMB).
· Revenue increased from $717.2B in 2021 to $996.3B in 2025.
· Gross profit rose from $297.7B in 2021 to $398.0B in 2025.
· Net income declined from $150.5B in 2021 to $130.1B in 2025.
Balance sheet
The balance sheet also shows moderate growth over the same period.
· Total assets increased from $1,690.2B in 2021 to $1,804.2B in 2025.
· Total liabilities rose from $606.0B in 2021 to $714.0B in 2025.
· Total debt increased from $177.8B in 2021 to $225.5B in 2025.
Cash flow
Cash flow trends were mixed. Cash from operations fell from $231.7B in 2021 to $163.5B in 2025, which may warrant closer attention.
Cash flow from financing declined from $30.0B in 2021 to -$76.2B in 2025. This may reflect debt repayment or other financing outflows, which can be a constructive sign depending on the broader capital strategy.
News around ALIBABA (summarised by Gemini)
Alibaba’s Q1 2026 was defined by a massive pivot toward Artificial Intelligence, prioritising long-term infrastructure over immediate margins. While the company reported a “top-line miss” with revenue of approximately $34.6 billion and a 10% decline in non-GAAP EPS, markets responded positively to the underlying growth in its core segments.
Key Highlights
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Cloud & AI Surge: Alibaba Cloud revenue accelerated by 26%, fueled by triple-digit growth in AI-related products. AI now accounts for over 20% of the Cloud group’s external revenue.
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Strategic Restructuring: The company integrated Taobao, Tmall, Ele.me, and Fliggy into the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, aiming to create a comprehensive “AI-era” consumption platform.
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Innovation Breakthroughs: In early 2026, Alibaba released Qwen3.6-Plus for enterprise agentic AI and the viral “Happy Horse” text-to-video model, which topped global AI leaderboards.
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Capital Investment: To support this “AI-first” strategy, Alibaba committed RMB 380 billion over three years to cloud infrastructure, despite these costs temporarily leading to negative free cash flow this quarter.
The expected EPS and Revenue are $7.11 and $247.2B, respectively.
Given the above, I prefer to monitor ALIBABA for now.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (11May2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.40, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market.
Moving Averages
Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.
Exponential Moving Averages
The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook.
Other Technical Analysis
21 indicators recommend a “Buy” rating with none recommending a “Sell” rating. Thus, the daily interval is recommending a “Strong Buy” for the S&P500.
It has been 3 weeks of a dominant, “strong buy” for the S&P500 index.
While all indicators are showing a bullish trend, let us note that some indicators highlight a market “Overbought”. Will the bulls eventually get tired?
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The market remains in the “Greed” zone with a score of 67.
Weekly Outlook
Based on the above, the S&P500 is expected to be bullish entering into the new week with some concerns of “overbought”.
News and my thoughts from the past week (11May2026)
The CEOs of SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton, the 3 companies that run the global oil industry's infrastructure, just said the same thing on earnings calls: The Hormuz closure exposed that the global energy system is fundamentally fragile. The system wasn't broken by the war. It was already broken. "Systematically underinvested for a decade." The war just proved it. - X user Mario Nawfal
Yes, Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said exactly that in a recent interview: “They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month.” He added that lower-income consumers are seeing negative cash flows and dipping into savings. The "most people" part is a slight generalisation.
Trump admits he expected oil to hit $200-250 and says "even if it went to 200, it would have been worth it." - White House
Nearly 119,000 American families lost their homes to foreclosure in just the first 3 months of 2026. That is a six year high and it is getting worse every single month. Foreclosure starts are up 20% year over year. Bank repossessions jumped 45% compared to a year ago. Bank repossessions are the most alarming number here. - X user Bull Theory
My Investing Muse (11May2026)
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
Klarna was forced to rehire staff after an AI implementation failure. What are the lessons that we can learn? What do we need to navigate with confidence in the AI ocean. How can we avoid these mistakes during our AI deployment?
We are seeing a downward trend in job creation. We are expecting more news of layoffs, and some of them, like Amazon, will be massive.
Vibe Coding
There is mixed feedback about vibe coding. Some developers have admitted defeat when some point to an undesirable outcome. Are there more successes or failures in this domain? Are we jumping too fast into a new solution without a strong, proven track record? Is this a corporate FOMO?
US Farmers
Are we heading to a “man-made” famine? More importantly, is America self-sufficient with its food supplies?
More importantly, America needs to save this important industry that is putting food on the table. This is a strategic need of the country.
My thoughts
Is the USA in a better place following the war? There is much hype surrounding the AI and data centre boom. It is a great thing, and a robust energy infrastructure is needed to back this massive growth.
I hope that the war is not going to escalate, but it may not be within the hands of Iran and America.
With rising inflation, the Fed may need to hike its interest rates instead.
Is the market one explosion away from some correction after weeks of strong bull runs in the S&P500?
There are some concerns about natural disasters - earthquakes, El Niño-led storms, droughts, fire and more. Let us always be prepared.
While the stock market is not a reflection of the economy, overbought conditions are typically followed by oversold ones, and these are opportunities we can explore. Berkshire is sitting on over $380B in cash, and I am watching from the same sidelines while doing some small trades.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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