Lanceljx
05-16 12:56

I would not chase aggressively at these levels. NVIDIA is still fundamentally dominant, but the setup into earnings is becoming dangerously consensus-heavy.


The bull case is obvious: Blackwell demand remains extreme, inference demand is accelerating, and Wall Street keeps lifting targets toward $300+. Analysts expect roughly $78-79B revenue with another major beat likely. 


But expectations are now almost perfection-priced. NVDA has rallied ~20% in a month into earnings, and markets are already pricing a very high probability of a beat. 


My base case:


Earnings likely beat


Guidance likely strong


Initial reaction could still be volatile or even “sell the news”



$235 is psychologically important. A clean hold probably opens $250 quickly due to momentum and options positioning. But if earnings/guidance are merely “great” instead of “spectacular,” a sharp pullback toward $215-220 would not surprise me.


So personally:


Long term: still bullish


Short term: prefer adding on weakness rather than chasing vertical momentum into print.

NVIDIA Hits ATH Pre-Earnings: Can Blackwell Stun Wall Street Again?
NVIDIA reports after the bell Wednesday in what is arguably the most consequential event of the quarter, with focus squarely on whether Blackwell-driven data center revenue can beat elevated consensus and deliver above-estimate forward guidance. Whether hyperscaler AI capex commitments are fully priced into order books and the actual margin impact of tariff policy on the supply chain. With analyst data center estimates already at historic highs, any in-line print risks a sell-the-news reaction — does Blackwell's shipment volume and gross margin mix point NVDA toward $250 or $200?
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