EliteEquity
05-29

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

Payrolls Fell 23K Yet Stocks Hit a Record — Can Wednesday's CPI Keep It Up?
S&P 500 +0.62% to a record close Friday, Nasdaq +1.30%, Dow +0.28%. The catalyst was a jobs report bad in the right way: July payrolls fell 23,000, May and June were revised down a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2% year-over-year. September hike odds slid to around 44%, and AI and semis took the valuation room. July CPI lands Wednesday, 20:30 Beijing — with warnings it could argue the other way. Weak jobs read bullish; does inflation get the same treatment?
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