Markets see roughly a 40% prob-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

Two Rounds of Treasury Buybacks, and Long-End Yields Still Hit a New High?

The Treasury bought 20- to 30-year debt again Wednesday, capped at $6B — second round in two weeks; the first filled only $5.2B. The bid came, yields didn't fall: the 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15bp and the highest since 2007, as was the 30-year. October Fed hike odds hit 69.7%. Stocks fell: Nasdaq -1.13% to 26,936.04, erasing Tuesday's record; QQQ -0.84% to $741.21; S&P 500 -0.75% to 7,706.03; Dow -0.68% to 51,511.59. Bulls say firm data, not weak demand, is lifting yields; bears say two buybacks and a new high prove the bid can't absorb supply. At what yield do you redo the math on stocks?

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