Markets see roughly a 40% prob-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

Middle East Tensions Ends Market Win Streak: Time to De-Risk?

The Dow posted its worst single session since March as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities ignited risk-off sentiment, pushing oil higher and rekindling rate concerns. Compounding the pressure, AI and software leaders AVGO, CRWD, NOW, and ORCL all sold off sharply post-earnings, snapping a multi-day equity rally. ADP payrolls of just 122,000 added a fresh growth question mark. With geopolitical, rate, and earnings risks converging simultaneously, would you trim exposure here — or is this just a brief pause in the bull run?

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