Treasury Buybacks, Rising Yields — When Do Stocks Need a Rethink? Two weeks of larger Treasury buybacks, yet long-term yields are still climbing. That matters for stocks because the risk-free rate is moving higher at the same time equity valuations are already elevated. The Treasury expanded its long-end buyback operations to at least $4B per operation, with a $6B 20–30 year operation on September 24. The program is primarily intended to improve liquidity in older Treasury securities — it isn’t a tool that can directly control long-term yields. And the bond market is making that distinction clear. The key move The U.S. 10-year yield jumped roughly 15bp to 5.11%, its highest close since 2007. The 30-year yield also reached multi-year highs. At the same time, October Fed hike expectations mo

I will wait for next opportunity

$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$   $Micron Technology(MU)$   $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   High-beta stocks are doing exactly what they are designed to do when risk appetite returns: move faster than the market. But that creates a dangerous psychological trap. The stronger the rally becomes, the easier it is to believe that waiting means missing out. I see it differently. Beta tells me how fast a stock may move. It does not tell me whether the price is worth paying. So I am not asking which hig

Is quantitive easing not already happening? The deal INTC and the us govt in Aug 2025 for 10% stake, back when INTC was $20. Has the same thing been happening on other scales we aren't aware of?

If you’ve been watching the markets lately, you must heard of Rate Hike. So what is the next? On October 2, we are getting the latest U.S. Unemployment Rate. Source from Trading Economics What is the Fed Actually Looking At? When the Federal Reserve sits down to decide on interest rates, they look at two main things : Inflation: Are prices of everyday goods and services getting too expensive too fast? Employment: Are people keeping their jobs, and is the labor market healthy? Lately, the Fed’s challenge has been elevated inflation alongside a relatively resilient job market. Even with higher interest rates weighing on parts of the economy, employment has continued to grow while wage growth has stayed positive. Resilient household incomes and consumer spending can support demand, making it

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ With yields continue to climb, no ease in political tensions between US and the rest of world, the consistant high prices of oil and diesel, the market seem to be resilent and still holding strong. Let’s see how long this bottleneck can hold before it breaks. We are heading into the “traditional” bear market period of the year. And with two more Fed announcements coming up, who knows which direction this market is going to swing? @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]

Everyone's Waiting For QE. Warsh Won't Print. Here's The Lever I'd Watch Instead. Mathematical Money | September 25, 2026 The Treasury went into the market on Wednesday and bought back its own long bonds. Up to $6 billion of 20- to 30-year paper. Second time in a fortnight. The 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15 basis points, the highest it's been since 2007. The 30-year did the same. Think about what that means for a second. The single largest issuer of long-duration debt on the planet showed up as a buyer of its own paper, twice, and the yield went up. That's not a liquidity problem you fix with six billion dollars. That's the market telling you something about who's willing to own thirty-year duration at these levels, and the answer is fewer people than there used to be. Scott Bessent said

🌟🌟🌟The Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE report is scheduled to be released on September 30 2026.  The 10 year US Treasury yield has just violently broken through 5.5%, carving out a fresh multi year decade high.  This sudden spike signals that institutional bond investors are completely losing faith that inflation is under control. The New York Fed President John Williams warned that it is entirely reasonable to expect another interest rate hike by the end of the year.    This hawkish stance, arriving right on the heels of the Fed lifting its benchmark rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, has sent the 10 Year Treasury yield violently ripping past 5.5%. How 5.5% Yields Crush High Valuations  When government bond yields break out to multi decade high of 5.5%, it triggers

I’d go with C — tech and semiconductors staying strong. If the leaders keep holding up and participation broadens, that would look more convincing than a rally driven purely by falling yields. 👀

The Fed raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16th, which is not the end of the interest rate hike cycle, but more like the prelude. The first rate hike by new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh is likely just an appetizer.

When the 10-year treasury stabilizes by more than 5 percent, the chain effect immediately shows: the 30-year fixed rate has risen to 7.12 percent (the new two-year high), the cost of financing for enterprises and the interest rate of consumer credit are simultaneously tightening. Financial conditions are real-time tightening

For me, the 10-year Treasury at 5.1% is already a level where I start redoing the equity math. At 5.25%, I would become more selective on high-valuation growth stocks, because the risk-free alternative becomes increasingly attractive and higher discount rates put more pressure on valuations. If the 10-year approaches 5.5% without a corresponding acceleration in earnings growth, I would favour stronger cash flows, reasonable valuations and balance-sheet quality rather than chasing momentum. The key question is why yields are rising. Strong economic growth accompanied by stronger earnings is much easier for equities to absorb than a rise driven mainly by persistent inflation, Fed tightening expectations and Treasury supply. So my levels are: 5.25% = reassess; 5.5% = much higher hurdle for eq

Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have experienced persistent upward pressure, repeatedly testing multi-decade highs. This structural shift is driven by a fundamental imbalance between massive federal debt issuance and constrained private sector absorption capacity. In this article, we would like to share how we can synthesizes the core drivers (supply/demand imbalances, buyback limitations, supply-side inflation) and investment conclusions. The article would have the following Core Analysis Highlights: Supply vs. Buybacks: Explains why Treasury buybacks are liquidity-neutral operations that cannot counteract net issuance expansions. Yield Resistance: Analyzes natural macro limits including debt-servicing constraints, Treasury auction mix shifts (T-Bill reliance), and economic reflexivity. Vo

The AI Fortress Cracks — 30Y Yields at 5.44% Drag the Mag 7 into the Same Fire That Torched Everything Else One thing has held this market up for months and the legs are getting wobbly. Mega-cap Tech and AI absorbed the capital while everything rate-sensitive got crushed. NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO — the Mag 7 and the AI complex (SMCI, ARM, TSM) vacuumed up every free dollar. The rest of the tape? Rate-sensitive cyclicals, regional banks, REITs, homebuilders, small caps — all left for dead. That worked as long as AI stayed insulated from the macro. The 30Y just hit 5.44%, its highest since 2004. Nasdaq futures are down close to a point. That is not a minor tick. When the long end of the curve is screaming like this, duration gets repriced and the high-multiple growth names f

Everyone is talking about the 10-year Treasury hitting 5.11%. But I think the more interesting part is what happened after the Treasury stepped in to buy bonds. You would normally expect extra demand to help push prices higher and yields lower. Instead, yields kept climbing. That raises a different question: Is the bond market telling us something that the stock market hasn’t fully priced in yet? Maybe investors are simply demanding more yield to hold long-term debt. Maybe expectations for inflation and growth have changed. Or maybe the market is starting to worry about the sheer amount of debt that needs to be absorbed. Whatever the reason, this isn’t just a bond-market story. Higher long-term yields affect mortgages, corporate borrowing, valuations and the cost of capital across the econ

The indices: three directions the day before, one direction now All three indices closed lower on Wednesday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite fell 1.13 per cent to 26,936.04, down 308.24 points on the day, giving back the record it had set in the previous session; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.75 per cent to 7,706.03, down 58.61 points; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.68 per cent to 51,511.59, down 352.10 points. The previous session had the three running separately — the Nasdaq closing at a record, the Dow lower, the S&P 500 finishing flat to within 0.06 points. A day later they were back on the same heading, a

As the tech-heavy $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Nasdaq Composite breaches new record highs, a critical structural divergence has emerged under the market surface. While major capitalization benchmarks suggest robust equity health, participation metrics reveal a strikingly narrow advance: fewer than half of Nasdaq constituents trade above their 200-day moving average. In this article, we would like to go through these points on why Nasdaq breaches new record highs yet fewer than half of Nasdaq constituents trade above their 200-day moving average. Market Anatomy — Breakdown of index concentration, market breadth metrics (only ~48% of stocks above 200-day SMA), and structural divergence. Sectors, Stock Focus & AI Narrative — In-depth analysis of three convic

pls be B. wait wait wait till i revalue my loan in sept 2027. if it goes up. maybe is time to clear the loan. let me talk to my partner nearer the date.