SpaceX Countdown: The Biggest IPO in History! $135 Per Share, Worth It?

The countdown is on. As soon as next week (the market broadly expects around June 12), $Space Exploration Technologies Corp(SPCX)$ lists on the Nasdaq under the ticker $SPCX$. Priced at $135 per share, a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising $74.4 billion — instantly the largest IPO in history. Musk skipped the usual price range and simply named a number. If the stock pops in its first days, he could become the world's first trillionaire.

Just how big is this IPO?

- $135 a share, $1.77T valuation, $74.4B raised (ceiling up to $86B). That raise nearly exceeds the total of every US IPO of the past two years combined

- More than 40% above the company's own $1.25T self-valuation in February

- SpaceX rewrites prior record was Saudi Aramco in 2019: $1.7T valuation, raising over $29B.

- Musk controls ~50% economic stake (~$752B) plus over 85% of voting power (super-voting shares); he can't sell until certain operational targets are met

It's also a bellwether: Anthropic filed confidentially on Monday, OpenAI is expected within weeks, both valued near $1T. Three mega-listings could open the floodgates of wealth across Silicon Valley and Wall Street.

Why $1.77 trillion? Goldman is betting on AI growing 100x

Lead underwriter Goldman shared an aggressive model verbally with asset managers on the roadshow:

- AI revenue: $3.2B in 2025 → $322B in 2030, roughly 100x

- Total revenue: $18.7B last year (+33% YoY) → $474B in 2030

- AI ramp: +388% YoY to $15.6B in 2026, $34.5B in 2027

- Starlink at $144B in 2030, less than half of AI; launch business $4.1B → $8.3B

- EBITDA: $6.6B in 2025 → $352B in 2030; free cash flow expected to turn positive at $72B by 2031

The whole story rests on one assumption: xAI's total addressable market is a staggering $26.5T, far above the ~$2T combined for Starlink and space. In other words, this $1.77T isn't buying rockets — it's buying AI.

But it's a colossal cash-burn story

- Net loss of over $4.9B last year (a $791M profit in 2024), with the loss widening entirely on AI spending

- xAI lost $6.4B in 2025; Grok still trails Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google in code, security, agents, and conversational models, and paid subscriptions are nowhere near what the revenue needs

- The 300MW Colossus 1 supercomputer in Memphis runs underutilized as Grok monetization disappoints — Musk simply rented the compute to rival Anthropic

- Within two years of founding, Musk pushed out all 10 co-founders

- The cash burn is enormous: possibly $120B over this year and next, another $230B through 2030, ~$350B cumulatively over five years; free cash flow ran a $13.8B deficit last year

The optimists say it's claiming the next-gen AI gateway — AI data centers in orbit, a lunar factory, and ultimately humans on Mars. The cautious say it's a colossal cash-burn story that must be proven with real profit.

Discussion

Will you get on board next week?

The biggest IPO in history lists next week — will you buy $SPCX$ at the offering, or wait a few quarters of earnings first?

Goldman bets AI revenue grows 100x in five years, yet xAI is still deep in the red and Grok is behind — do you believe the story, or is it a valuation bubble?

Musk could become the world's first trillionaire on this — a faith premium worth paying, or risk that isn't priced in?

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