$RIVN / $LCID / EV Demand: A Bearish Read on the Next 12 Months

According to Cox Automotive, EV sales have dropped dramatically in the past 2 quarters (no surprise with the tax credit gone) in the U.S.

What's interesting is that $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ and $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ are increasing supply in a market that's seeing demand destruction and interest rates are rising, putting further pressure on prices and demand.

Why would buyers suddenly have interest in these EVs when they're trending to ICE vehicles already?

It's a mix I wouldn't want to own.

Disclosure: Short

RIVN via long-term puts.

I know, I know, I'm the Rivian hater.

But come on! No one buying an SUV wants rear wheel drive! This makes it unusable anywhere it snows.

Realistically, the R2 starts at $52k with AWD, just like the R1 was never really the advertised $67,500.

At the $52k price point, R2 is comparable to a BMW X3, which is a similar size. For reference, BWM wold 76,546 X3s last year...not enough to even fill Normal.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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No one buying an SUV wants rear wheel drive! This makes it unusable anywhere it snows.</p>\n<p>Realistically, the R2 starts at $52k with AWD, just like the R1 was never really the advertised $67,500.</p>\n<p>At the $52k price point, R2 is comparable to a BMW X3, which is a similar size. For reference, BWM wold 76,546 X3s last year...not enough to even fill Normal.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\" \" title=\" \" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b453c12b3914596a00967b15225cc06\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"537\"><span> </span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance.</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/554651083281352\" title=\"Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off</a></strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be0283b695178d5d32f9e254ddc1d4a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>According to Cox Automotive, EV sales have dropped dramatically in the past 2 quarters (no surprise with the tax credit gone) in the U.S.</p>\n<p>What's interesting is that <a data-mention-id=\"RIVN\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Rivian Automotive, Inc.\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> and <a data-mention-id=\"LCID\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Lucid Group Inc\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LCID\">$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$</a> are increasing supply in a market that's seeing demand destruction and interest rates are rising, putting further pressure on prices and demand.</p>\n<p>Why would buyers suddenly have interest in these EVs when they're trending to ICE vehicles already?</p>\n<p>It's a mix I wouldn't want to own.</p>\n<p>Disclosure: Short</p>\n<p>RIVN via long-term puts.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\" \" title=\" \" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a1ac65de85b0ec0bb04804358b44a0c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\"><span> </span></p>\n<p>I know, I know, I'm the Rivian hater.</p>\n<p>But come on! No one buying an SUV wants rear wheel drive! This makes it unusable anywhere it snows.</p>\n<p>Realistically, the R2 starts at $52k with AWD, just like the R1 was never really the advertised $67,500.</p>\n<p>At the $52k price point, R2 is comparable to a BMW X3, which is a similar size. For reference, BWM wold 76,546 X3s last year...not enough to even fill Normal.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\" \" title=\" \" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b453c12b3914596a00967b15225cc06\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"537\"><span> </span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance.</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/554651083281352\" title=\"Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off</a></strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be0283b695178d5d32f9e254ddc1d4a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\"></p></body></html>","text":"According to Cox Automotive, EV sales have dropped dramatically in the past 2 quarters (no surprise with the tax credit gone) in the U.S. What's interesting is that $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ and $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ are increasing supply in a market that's seeing demand destruction and interest rates are rising, putting further pressure on prices and demand. 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