FAITHFULLY
08-14

July CPI: no surprises, but the market still found something to chew on

Headline landed at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Core came in at 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — the slowest annual core print since February. Shelter and food each added 0.1%; energy was the drag, down on the month even as gasoline is still running +24.6% y/y.

The "in-line" read is actually the story: it's the second straight month of cooling core inflation, which is why traders leaned harder into a September hold rather than a hike. Future now price meaningfully lower hike odds than a week ago — the fourth straight downward revision.

Equities shrugged it off calmly (S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%), but gold's +2% move to $4,471 says someone's still hedging. That's the tension: a "boring" CPI print that both confirms disinflation *and* keeps a safe-haven bid alive.

So — is gold pricing in a hold that never comes, or is it front-running something the equity market hasn't priced yet?

Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Both Target S&P 8000 — But Index Falls?
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan both lifted their S&P 500 targets to 8,000, on earnings upgrades rather than multiple expansion. Monday disagreed: S&P 500 −0.52% to 7,745.06, Dow −0.51%, Nasdaq −0.32%. August consumer confidence weakened, and a sell-side note titled "Three Bubbles, One Liquidity Problem" flagged narrowing upside and extreme investor leverage. Worth noting: 8,000 is 3.3% from here. The week's variable is July FOMC minutes, Thursday 2 a.m. Beijing, from the meeting that held at 3.50–3.75% with three hike votes. Long AI and semis, rotate to financials and consumer, or wait?
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Comments

  • ZOE011
    08-14
    ZOE011
    I added a bit of GLD before the print — not for one CPI, more for tail risk. Gold at +2% feels like it's sniffing out growth stress before equities admit it
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