I'm starting to collect SpaceX(SPCX) and open a new position because I feel the stock may have reached its near-term bottom. After the post-IPO hype pushed SpaceX above $225, the stock went through a painful correction, falling to around $105 in early August. The combination of valuation concerns, heavy AI spending, earnings uncertainty and the IPO lock-up expiration created a perfect storm of selling pressure. But after that sharp reset, the risk-reward profile is starting to look much more attractive to me.

More importantly, the underlying business is still growing at an impressive pace. SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of about $7.8 billion, up roughly 92% year over year, while Starlink continues to expand rapidly. The market initially focused heavily on the huge AI-related capital expenditure and punished the stock, but I see that spending differently: SpaceX is effectively positioning itself for the next major AI infrastructure opportunity. The company has also been expanding its AI compute ambitions aggressively, which could potentially create a much larger business beyond rockets and Starlink.

From a trading perspective, the rebound from roughly $105 to above the $135 IPO price is another reason I'm becoming more confident. The stock has already absorbed a major earnings shock and the first large lock-up expiration without the massive selling wave many investors feared. That tells me some of the worst near-term selling pressure may have already been priced in. SpaceX has since reclaimed its IPO price, and momentum has clearly improved, although I still expect volatility because additional unlocked shares and the enormous valuation remain important risks.

For me, this is therefore not about chasing the recent rebound, but about gradually building exposure after a major correction. I don't expect SpaceX to move higher in a straight line, so I prefer to collect in batches and leave room to average in if another pullback comes. My thesis is that the near-term bottom around the $105 area could hold, while the combination of Starlink growth, space infrastructure and potentially huge AI demand gives SpaceX multiple engines for future growth. If the market continues to recognize the long-term AI opportunity, I believe today's volatility could eventually look like an attractive entry point.

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