Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in July. Sticky inflation and cooling employment coexisted, leaving the Federal Reserve caught between the dilemma of “rate hikes amplifying a recession” and “rate cuts undermining the fight against inflation.” Geopolitical premiums flowed into energy and safe-haven assets, while macroeconomic uncertainty constrained broad-based valuation expansion in equities. Together, these two forces shaped the week’s market pattern: “crude oil and gold led gains, equities diverged, and copper and aluminum hesitated.”
1. Asset Performance and Key Divergences
Based on Wind data, the weekly performance of key assets as of the close on August 14, 2026, was as follows:
Crude oil rose 5.17%, gold gained 2.81%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.36%, copper increased 0.14%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.14%. Silver and aluminum were broadly unchanged, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.56%.
Figure 1. Weekly performance of key assets (red indicates gains; green indicates losses).
The latest week showed clear divergence across major asset classes. Crude oil led commodities with a 5.17% gain, followed by gold at 2.81%. The S&P 500 rose 0.36%, while copper and the Nasdaq posted modest gains of 0.14% each. Silver and aluminum were broadly flat, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.56%. Overall gains in equities were limited: the Dow weakened while the Nasdaq edged higher, suggesting that capital had not moved into equities on a broad-based basis.
$标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2606(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2606(MYMmain)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $道琼斯ETF(DIA)$ $纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ $NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2606(MNQmain)$ $微型10年美债收益率主连 2605(10Ymain)$ $10年美债主连 2606(ZNmain)$
When prices are considered alongside inventories, three directional divergences stand out. First, crude oil posted the strongest gain. U.S. commercial inventories were in the lower-middle part of the five-year range, while Cushing inventories were clearly below their historical average; however, a relatively high geopolitical risk premium was embedded in the gain. Second, copper prices were broadly unchanged: inventories in Shanghai declined, but COMEX inventories accumulated significantly, and a genuine drawdown in global inventories has yet to be confirmed. Third, aluminum inventories continued to decline, yet prices remained stagnant, indicating that lower visible inventories had not translated into physical tightness.
Against a backdrop of repeatedly shifting macro expectations, price movements alone are no longer sufficient to identify the main drivers of asset performance. It is therefore useful to examine the latest changes in U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, gold, and silver through the combined lenses of inventories and capital flows.
2. Equity and Bond Flows and Interest Rates
Front-end yields decline, long-end yields remain elevated, and capital flows are selective
According to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI):
The Investment Company Institute, or ICI, was established in 1940 and is one of the most important industry associations for the U.S. fund industry. Its statistics cover approximately 98% of the assets of U.S. funds registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Its fund-flow data are widely regarded as an authoritative source for tracking subscription and redemption activity in U.S. publicly offered funds. The ICI has long published statistics on the assets and flows of regulated funds in the United States and globally. Its consistent methodology and broad coverage have led brokerages, research institutions, and financial media to cite its data extensively.
Among risk assets, capital continued to favor precious metals and energy during the week. Equity-market gains were limited overall, with the Dow weakening and the Nasdaq rising only modestly. This indicates that investors had not broadly increased their equity allocations.
The latest data on the U.S. Treasury yield curve show the 10-year Treasury yield at approximately 4.68% and the 3-month yield at approximately 3.86%. Compared with the preceding period, front-end yields have continued to decline, while long-end yields remain elevated. The spread between the 10-year and 3-month yields is approximately 82 basis points, indicating that the yield curve has clearly returned to a positive slope.
This shift reflects stronger market expectations for further declines in short-term policy rates, while long-term yields remain constrained by inflation, Treasury supply, and economic resilience. For major asset classes, lower front-end rates are supportive of gold and growth-stock valuations, but elevated long-end yields limit broad-based expansion in equity valuations. As a result, capital flows during the week were more selective than indicative of a broad recovery in risk appetite.
Figure 2. U.S. fund net flows (equity and bond funds; source: ICI).
Figure 3. U.S. 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields (source: U.S. Department of the Treasury).
$标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
3. Crude Oil: Low Inventories, with Gains Containing a Risk Premium
According to the latest weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have recently stood at approximately 420 million barrels. Relative to the five-year range, the 2026 inventory level is below the historical average and near the lower-middle portion of the range, although it is not at an extreme low. Inventories rose significantly from the beginning of the year through the spring, then gradually declined and have recently moved sideways at low levels.
Figure 4. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (five-year range comparison; 2026 shown in orange; source: EIA).
Cushing crude oil inventories stood at approximately 25 million barrels, clearly below the five-year average and near the lower end of the historical range. Compared with total U.S. commercial inventories, the tightness at Cushing is more pronounced, indicating stronger support for WTI pricing from available crude supplies at the delivery point.
Figure 5. Cushing crude oil inventories (five-year range comparison; 2026 shown in orange; source: EIA).
However, crude oil rose 5.17% during the week, substantially more than can be explained by changes in inventories alone. Fundamentals provided a floor, but the acceleration in prices more likely reflected a geopolitical risk premium, expectations of supply disruptions, and position adjustments. In other words, the current rise in oil prices does not necessarily indicate a broad improvement in demand. If the geopolitical premium fades, prices may return to a trading logic dominated by inventories and refinery demand.
Assessment: Crude oil is in a state characterized by “low inventories, tighter conditions at the delivery point, and prices driven by a risk premium.” The short-term outlook remains firm, but the sustainability of the rally depends on whether supply-side disruptions materialize.
$美国原油ETF(USO)$ $WTI原油主连 2607(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2607(QMmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2607(MCLmain)$
4. Copper: Inventories Rise as Visible Global Stocks Continue to Accumulate
According to Wind data, inventories across the three major exchanges have diverged significantly. COMEX copper inventories were approximately 730,000 metric tons, having risen continuously since the second half of 2025 and reaching historically high levels. LME copper inventories were approximately 200,000 metric tons; although they had declined from a previous peak, they remained above mid-2025 levels. Shanghai copper inventories were approximately 25,000 metric tons, substantially below the high for the year and relatively low.
Figure 6. Visible copper inventories across the three major exchanges (source: Wind).
In aggregate, the increase in COMEX inventories far exceeded the declines in Shanghai and LME inventories, leaving total visible inventories across the three exchanges at relatively high levels. The decline in Shanghai inventories therefore cannot yet be directly interpreted as a genuine global drawdown. It is more likely to include inventory movements across regions, changes in delivery locations, and shifts in arbitrage positions.
Copper prices rose only 0.14% during the week, broadly consistent with the continued increase in COMEX inventories. Prices did not break out decisively, indicating that the market continued to price in pressure from elevated inventories. At the same time, lower Shanghai inventories provided some support to the domestic spot market, resulting in a regional divergence characterized by “low inventories in China and high inventories overseas.”
We therefore judge that current changes in copper inventories look more like a redistribution of global stocks than a comprehensive drawdown driven by demand. Until COMEX inventories peak and begin to decline, and global visible inventories show a sustained reduction, copper’s upside remains constrained by inventory pressure.
$铜 ETF(COPA.UK)$ $COMEX铜主连 2607(HGmain)$
Figure 7. Shanghai copper inventories (10,000 metric tons; source: Wind).
Figure 8. LME copper inventories (metric tons; source: Wind).
Figure 9. CME copper inventories (10,000 metric tons; source: Wind).
5. Aluminum: Inventories Decline, but Prices Remain Stagnant
As of August 17, according to Wind data, LME aluminum inventories were approximately 280,000 metric tons, continuing to decline from the high reached since 2024. COMEX aluminum inventories were near low levels and relatively small in scale. Shanghai aluminum inventories were approximately 27,000–28,000 metric tons, significantly lower than in the preceding period.
From an inventory perspective, aluminum inventories across all three exchanges were either declining or operating at low levels, apparently indicating reduced pressure from visible stocks. However, aluminum prices were unchanged during the week and did not rise alongside the inventory decline, creating a divergence of “declining inventories but no price increase.”
This divergence may reflect several factors. First, declining exchange inventories do not necessarily indicate an improvement in end-user consumption; they may also reflect canceled warehouse warrants, cross-market flows, and the relocation of inventories between regions. Second, aluminum prices are constrained by capacity, supply elasticity, and processing margins, and the inventory decline has not yet generated a sufficiently strong physical premium. Third, weak macroeconomic demand expectations have discouraged capital from pricing in the destocking signal.
We therefore judge that visible aluminum inventories are low, but prices lack elasticity. This suggests that destocking has not yet translated into pronounced tightness in supply and demand. Going forward, it will be necessary to monitor spot premiums and discounts, canceled warrants, and domestic consumption data, rather than interpreting inventory declines alone as evidence of a trend reversal.
Figure 11. LME aluminum inventories (metric tons; source: Wind).
Figure 12. Shanghai aluminum inventories (10,000 metric tons; source: Wind).
Figure 13. COMEX aluminum inventories (metric tons; source: Wind).
6. Gold and Silver: Gold Inventories Continue to Decline, while Silver Inventories Stabilize at Low Levels
Figure 14. COMEX gold inventories (10,000 troy ounces).
According to the latest Wind data, COMEX gold inventories were approximately 26.649 million troy ounces, continuing to decline from the 2025 high and currently standing at a low level within the range shown in the chart. Gold prices rose 2.81% during the week, producing a combination of rising prices and declining inventories.
A decline in gold inventories generally indicates a reduction in deliverable supplies, but its impact on prices must be assessed alongside futures positioning and physical demand. Gold is currently supported by expectations of lower real interest rates, changes in expectations for the U.S. dollar and policy, central-bank purchases, and safe-haven demand. The decline in inventories has therefore reinforced market attention to tighter physical resources while also amplifying gold’s financial characteristics.
Figure 15. COMEX silver inventories (100 million troy ounces).
According to the latest Wind data, COMEX silver inventories were approximately 335 million troy ounces. After falling sharply from the 2025 high, inventories reached a low around spring 2026, then recovered modestly and stabilized. Silver prices were unchanged during the week, significantly underperforming gold.
The divergence between gold and silver indicates that the precious-metals rally is currently driven primarily by gold’s safe-haven and interest-rate dynamics. Silver has not yet benefited from synchronized support from industrial demand and speculative capital. Although silver inventories remain low, their modest recovery and stagnant prices indicate that the market has not yet formed expectations of sustained physical tightness.
With respect to CFTC non-commercial positioning, gold’s non-commercial short positions have remained at relatively low levels and recently declined further. Non-commercial long positions have fallen from their earlier highs but remain relatively substantial, indicating that speculative investors’ overall allocation preference for gold has not clearly reversed. The rise in gold prices, contraction in short positions, and relative stability in net longs together suggest that the current move is not being driven solely by a surge in futures longs; safe-haven and allocation-related capital remain important sources of support.
In silver, non-commercial short positions have remained low after a prolonged decline, while non-commercial long positions have also fallen significantly from their cyclical highs in 2024–2025, with no clear recent expansion. Thus, although silver inventories are low, speculative participation and willingness to hold long positions are both weaker than in gold. Low inventories have not yet translated into price elasticity, consistent with silver’s broadly unchanged performance during the week.
Taken together, CFTC positioning and price performance show that gold prices rose without a corresponding sharp expansion in non-commercial longs, while short positions generally declined. This suggests that the rally was not primarily driven by concentrated speculative buying; safe-haven, physical-market, and allocation-related capital appear to have played a more prominent role. Silver, by contrast, showed relatively low levels of both non-commercial longs and shorts, with insufficient long participation. This mismatch between low inventories and weak speculative positioning helps explain why silver has displayed substantially less price elasticity than gold.
Assessment: Gold is a strong-performing asset characterized by “rising prices, declining inventories, and support from macro-oriented capital.” Silver remains in a wait-and-see state characterized by “low inventories but limited price elasticity,” and continues to lag gold clearly in relative strength.
Figure 16. COMEX gold non-commercial short positions (10,000 contracts; source: CFTC).
Figure 17. COMEX gold non-commercial long positions (10,000 contracts; source: CFTC).
Figure 18. COMEX silver non-commercial short positions (10,000 contracts; source: CFTC).
Figure 19. COMEX silver non-commercial long positions (10,000 contracts; source: CFTC).
7. Key Divergences and Conclusions
The week’s market can be summarized through four main themes. First, crude oil rose 5.17%; U.S. commercial inventories were low and Cushing inventories were tight, but the gain contained a substantial geopolitical risk premium. Second, copper prices were broadly unchanged: Shanghai inventories declined, but COMEX inventories accumulated significantly, and a genuine drawdown in global inventories has yet to be confirmed. Third, aluminum inventories continued to decline without a corresponding increase in prices, indicating that lower visible inventories had not translated into physical tightness. In addition, gold rose 2.81% while COMEX inventories continued to decline, creating a resonance between its financial attributes and tighter physical resources. Silver inventories stabilized at low levels, but its price performance remained notably weak.
Overall, capital did not flow broadly back into risk assets during the week. Instead, it was concentrated more heavily in crude oil and gold. Within commodities, there was also a clear divergence: energy and gold were supported by risk premiums, interest-rate expectations, and allocation demand, while copper and aluminum still need to see inventory declines validated by end-user demand.
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