atehpengaday
08-27

With the 10-year Treasury sitting at 4.7% and the 30-year yield breaching 5.2%, growth stocks are facing a textbook double squeeze. Future earnings multiples are being compressed right when fiscal debt issuance is competing directly with corporate data center bonds for market liquidity.

Here is how to think about positioning ahead of Kevin Warsh’s keynote address:

Equities (Tech/QQQ): High sensitivity to long-end yields. With Nvidia's solid Q2 performance already digesting, any hawkish tone on balance sheet runoff or persistent inflation (Core PCE running at 3.3%) could trigger short-term multiple compression across high-beta tech. Keeping risk management strict on leveraged positions is key.

Gold: Acting as the clear winner in this macro environment (+0.75%). It continues to serve as an essential hedge against fiscal dominance, sticky 3%+ inflation, and mounting global debt sustainability concerns.

Bitcoin / Crypto: The high-card event of the evening. With the official symposium theme centered on Financial Innovation, Payments, and Policy, Warsh's prospective commentary on private stablecoins versus systemic payment infrastructure could drive volatile price discovery.

The Bottom Line: Don't chase the initial knee-jerk move on Warsh's opening remarks. Focus on whether the long-end yields react to the speech—that bond market reaction will dictate where equity valuations land over the coming weeks.

Two Rounds of Treasury Buybacks, and Long-End Yields Still Hit a New High?
The Treasury bought 20- to 30-year debt again Wednesday, capped at $6B — second round in two weeks; the first filled only $5.2B. The bid came, yields didn't fall: the 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15bp and the highest since 2007, as was the 30-year. October Fed hike odds hit 69.7%. Stocks fell: Nasdaq -1.13% to 26,936.04, erasing Tuesday's record; QQQ -0.84% to $741.21; S&P 500 -0.75% to 7,706.03; Dow -0.68% to 51,511.59. Bulls say firm data, not weak demand, is lifting yields; bears say two buybacks and a new high prove the bid can't absorb supply. At what yield do you redo the math on stocks?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • zinglee
    08-27
    zinglee
    Market probably priced part of the tone already. I care more about next week's Treasury issuance details since that is the cleaner liquidity stress test for QQQ and gold
  • LisaEffie
    08-27
    LisaEffie
    AI capex visibility still looks better than people admit. Even with yields up, that spend feels sticky enough to cushion QQQ a bit
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