AMZN is One of the Safer 2x Opportunities in the Market

MMMTWealth
09-02

Tell me how these $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ forecasts don't work out:

1. $530B in AWS revenue in 2030 in line with MS forecasts.

-> At 30% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $3.18T business.

-> At 25% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $2.65T business.

2. E-Commerce ARR is ~$550B today.

-> At 10% CAGR growth we have a $833B revenue business in 2030.

-> At a conservative 1x sales that's $833B in value.

3. Digital Ads ha revenue heading towards $80B with 50% operating margins.

-> 20x EBIT values the business today in the $800B range. This should be a $1T business by 2030.

That's a $4.5T business EXCLUDING:

-> Amazon Leo

-> Zoox

-> One Medical

-> Prime Video

-> Equity stakes (If Anthropic IPO's at $2.5T,

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$'s stake will be ~20% of the entire MC today).

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is one of the safer 2x opportunities in the market over a 4-6 year period.

AI Companies and Industry DIG
AI is a marathon, not a sprint, it's a mega trend. Please share you Insights or comments on companies or technologies of AI industry.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment
2