I don't see a world where $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ or $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ don't end up ~2x from where they are today. -> Nvidia: We have a supply constrained business growing ~90% in FY27 and +70% in FY28 with 55% net income margins meaning we're trading ~13.5x FY28 EPS. 13.5x FY28 EPS is literally sub 0.2x PEG (for FY28). -> Amazon Further down the road but AWS likely reaches $1T in revenue in the next 9 years as per my model. At $2.75T MC today with digital ads on track for being a $800B business, e-comm ~$800B, Anthropic stakes, Prime, and everything else. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ likely has a lot more than 2x in the next

1. I own a small amount of $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ 2. $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ is a volatile stock. 3. I think $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ about 10-20% lower is where the r/r becomes too good to ignore. Here's a few reasons why that is true: -> Should do +$6.50 in EPS in FY27 and ~$10 in EPS in FY28 which is 70% CAGR. If we trade at ~$130 that means we're trading sub 15x FY28 EPS which considering would be a bargain at 70% growth. Back when $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ traded at sub $100 it

Seems like a big battle now between macro (10Y, Oil, PCE etc) and the AI narrative which is only trending in one direction: 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: Forecasted 2028 revenue growth at +70% vs Street estimates of 44%. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ forecasts $1.3T in hyperscaler CapEx spend for 2027. 3. $SHKY CEO: "We expect the shortage (on storage) to persist until the end of 2030." 4. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$: "We see structurally massive demand for NAND until 2030." 5. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ giving $Alphabet(GOOGL)$

Tell me how these $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ forecasts don't work out: 1. $530B in AWS revenue in 2030 in line with MS forecasts. -> At 30% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $3.18T business. -> At 25% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $2.65T business. 2. E-Commerce ARR is ~$550B today. -> At 10% CAGR growth we have a $833B revenue business in 2030. -> At a conservative 1x sales that's $833B in value. 3. Digital Ads ha revenue heading towards $80B with 50% operating margins. -> 20x EBIT values the business today in the $800B range. This should be a $1T business by 2030. That's a $4.5T business EXCLUDING: -> Amazon Leo -> Zoox -> One Medical -> Prime Video -> Equity stakes (If An

The more I research $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$, the more excited I get about the potential IF: 1. They can 20x their throughput in a year. 2. They can bring costs down instead of relying on customers paying a huge premium. 3. IF they can expand beyond a handful of frontier customers to become the default for anyone who needs fast tokens at scale. I'm still not convinced that given the above, I'd be happy paying 25x NTM sales for it though. But there's no argument what they've developed is market leading. -> 43 petabytes/second of on chip memory bandwidth (~2,000x more than $NVIDIA(NVDA)$). -> 4,000 tokens/sec with CS-4 vs 100 on

The commodities / durable plays for the next decade: Silver | $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$, $Contango Ore, Inc.(CTGO)$, $Hecla Mining(HL)$ -> $DXY is down 2.4% this month. -> M2 money supply is up ~5% in the last 3 months. -> AI buildout relies on silver as it's got the highest electrical conductivity of any metal. -> ~80% of silver is mined as a by-product. Copper | $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$, $Trilogy Metals(TMQ)$ -> Already incredibly scarce and getting scarcer. -> Forecasted

Think about $Silver Verde May Mining Co., Inc.(SIVE)$'s valuation for a second: A reminder in Q1, $SIVE said "over the next several years, our CAGR's are expected in the 25-30% range." Now this could be on the conservative side as that only assumes ~8-10% conversion of pipeline to revenue. That's probably a base case but let's work slightly more aggressively. If we work more ~15-20% conversion range (bullish) then the numbers still don't work that nicely. 15% conversion of $1.2B pipeline -> $69M in 2029 (~40% CAGR). 20% conversion (unlikely) of $1.2B pipeline -> $84M in 2029 (~50% CAGR). That puts $Silver Verde May Mining Co., Inc.(SIVE)$ in the range of 9.8x FY29 rev

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Really like this $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ analysis just wanted to add to it. Stablecoins are a MUST in the agentic wave which makes $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ one of the more pure AI bets over the next decade. Think about the potential stablecoin numbers we have: US Treasury has cited $3T as 2031 supply estimate. USDC is currently ~26% of total supply today (likely will increase given GENIUS Act). $3T * 26% (USDC share) = $806B $806B * 25% of all USDC = $201B of USDC on $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Yield at 4% (simplified back of the napki

Here's how I model $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ post the $600M ATM offering AH on a Friday...: 1. Revenue: Still fair to assume $5.6B in FY28 revenue (probably slightly conservative excluding ELSFP contribution). I've been over these numbers a lot. 2. Margins: 22% non-GAAP net margins is a solid base case for 2028. At $5.6B revenue scale, we should see operating leverage expansion. We see $Lumentum(LITE)$ guiding towards 36%, Innolight ~31%, and Eoptolink ~37%. 22% is also currently in line with analyst estimates (who have so far been conservative on the $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ numbers but best to take a

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ is still wildly undervalued. Here's how I think the business should be valued over the next 12 months: DATA & APPLICATIONS -> Annualized revenue based on Q2 is currently ~$410M. Growth at a similar rate into FY27 would put us at $525M. -> This business has 73% gross margins so at 28% YoY growth and those margins it's putting up figures like a solid SaaS company. -> $525M * 10x sales = $5.3B -> $525M * 12x sales = $6.3B DIAGNOSTICS -> Generated $293.3M in Q2 alone which is $1.2B annualized. Growth at a similar rate gets us to $1.5B in FY27. -> And plus, $Tempus AI(TEM)$ recently received FDA approval on xT CDx test which brings tumor DNA

Humanoids are coming and there are three public options now. We have Unitree (688836) now public at $53B. -> 2025 revenue ~$250M (humanoids were half of that). -> 2025 humanoid shipments ~ 5,500. -> ASPs ~$24k -> Production already demonstrated in the multi-thousand unit annual output range. Nomura has already initiated a 25x (yes...25x) 2027 P/S multiple for Unitree. We have $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$ (Agility) expected to go public at $2.5B pre-money. -> Trailing annual revenue ~$37M -> Cash burn ~$100M -> 150 units but 65,000 real world hours -> ~$125k BOM with a path to $30k long0term -> $300M multi-year contracted order. And we have Optimus /

Just want to add to this $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ math: E-Commerce: ARR is currently $547B. It's likely worth anywhere between 1 -1.8x sales which puts the e-comm valuation ~$800B. Digital Ads: FY26 revs is heading towards $80B+ with operating margins likely at +50% which puts operating income +$40B. I think a conservative multiple on this is in the 20x EBIT range which values the ads business ~$800B as well. That's a total of $1.6T in e-comm and ads. Overall valuation is $2.8T which means ~$1.2T is available for: -> AWS: Likely worth +$3T by 2030 -> Amazon Leo -> Zoox -> One Medical -> Prime Video -> Equity stakes

Just some back of the napkin maths on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$from MS: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS: AWS Q2 2026 revenue came in at $42.2B. That's an annualized run rate of $169B. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ management have said it's very possible AWS reaches a $1T annual revenue business. Constraint is entirely capacity driven with a huge $496B backlog. But let's model out the path to $1T in annual revs: Capacity ~14 GW in 2025 -> 120 GW in 2035. -> ~6 GW in 2026 and then ~8 GW per year thereafter. -> Monetization rises to ~$12 revenue per incremental watt. -> Which means at $12/W, each 8 GW of new capacity adds $96B in ann

Here's my 2030 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ estimate: -> 5GW capacity is contracted by YE 26 with 1GW capacity to be deployed per year from FY 27. -> Mid-term ACV is ~$20-25M as per management (for reference it used to be ~$12M). So a BULL case model would look something like this: 5.2 GW connected capacity by 2030 on a blended ARR/MW of $14M (that's a realistic haircut on utilization, mix, and timing vs the $20-25M forecasted. 5,200 MW * $14M = $72.8B ARR With EBITDA margins forecasted to stabilize near 45%... we're then looking at ~$32.7B in EBITDA. Bull case multiple: 25x Base case multiple: 18x Bear case multiple: 13x 25x * $32.7B -> $817B 18x * $32.7B -> $588B 13x * $32.7B -> $425B Or go more conservative (which is fair) and

Here's the potential 3x opportunity for $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: 1. OPTICS SEGMENT Management are guiding for "millions and millions of units" likely giving them "multiple hundreds of millions" per annum in revs. Conservatively, I think $300M by 2029 and $400M by 2030 is the range we're talking given H2 27 is the initial ramp up with a big production ramp up in 2028. 2. PERCEPTION BUSINESS Still pre-scale but looking at ~$522M in revs as per analysts in FY29. 3. TOTAL REVS Given the risks, I think it's sensible to work ~60-80% risking factors here. 60% * $822M = $493M in revs 80% * $822M = $657 in revs 4. SHARE DILUTION ESTIMATES Current share count is at 69.7M. SBC is unavoidable at this stage. 3-4M shares per annum vesting

95% of X is focused on semis, photonics, and memory it seems? What about the AI drug discovery theme? -> $AbCellera Biologics(ABCL)$ +55% in a week. -> $Tempus AI(TEM)$ still wildly undervalued, especially post $Microsoft(MSFT)$ partnership. -> $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ as the $1.1T (future -> $4T drug discovery leader). What about the critical minerals/materials/metals theme everyone on X went crazy about last year and then forgot about? -> $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$ is likely no longer

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ risk to reward makes complete sense. Here's why: BULL CASE: The bull case is a situation where management forecasts happen. I.e. $471M/month in revenue by mid 2027 / $5.6B (likely more) in revenue by FY28. $Lumentum(LITE)$ has a current sales multiple of 13x. 20% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is attributed to this segment so 20% * 13x = 2.6x sales. Innolight and Eoptolink trade ~9x sales and this is where 80% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is likely to come from. 80% * 9x = 7.2x Blended multiple = 9.8