🔥 #Memory Supercycle Over? I -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

🔥 #Memory Supercycle Over? I Don’t Think So.

Friday looked like a clean memory breakout — then today exposed the real battle. ⚔️

SK Hynix +4.83% 🚀

Micron -1.61% 📉

SanDisk -0.12% 😐

Same memory trade, completely different reactions. So what changed?

👉 The shortage hasn’t disappeared. It’s spreading.

HBM is already tight, but now conventional DRAM + NAND are being pulled into the squeeze. Reports of Samsung and SK Hynix inventories falling below 10 days are hard to ignore. 🧨

But here’s the catch: Kioxia.

If Kioxia is signalling that it wants to cool price increases, that challenges the cleanest bull thesis. Because in a shortage, the biggest enemy isn’t always weak demand — sometimes it’s your competitor deciding not to let prices run away. 👀

Still, I see this as a speed bump, not the end of the cycle.

AI infrastructure keeps consuming enormous amounts of memory, while meaningful new capacity takes time. If inventories continue falling while pricing remains firm, the market may eventually realise that the shortage is much deeper than one company’s pricing strategy.

🎯 My read: Memory supercycle = NOT OVER.

It’s entering the “prove the pricing power” phase.

Watch SK Hynix → inventory & HBM demand 📊

Watch Kioxia → NAND pricing 👁️

Watch Micron → DRAM pricing & margins 💰

Watch SNDK → whether NAND tightness translates into actual pricing power 🚀

If those four continue confirming tight supply, today’s divergence could look less like a top…

…and more like the market shaking out the weak hands before the next leg higher. 🔥📈

CXMT DRAM Breakthrough Hammers Memory and Optical Stocks — Panic or Repricing?

AI hardware sold off hard Monday: SanDisk -5.97%, Lumentum -9.78%, Micron -3.88%, SK Hynix -4.02%. Trigger: CXMT's president announced a 4F² DRAM architecture breakthrough at a weekend conference, targeting server memory by end-2026 — reviving fears of Chinese competition on pricing. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan warned capital, not chips, is now AI's primary bottleneck. Bulls say CXMT still faces major yield hurdles before any volume ramp; bears say once markets price in Chinese DRAM competition, fundamentals can't stop the re-rating. Has this changed your conviction in memory stocks?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

cheezzy
09-09
cheezzy
Sub-10 day inventory only matters if that is true end demand, not channel stuffing. If Kioxia is already leaning against pricing, the clean bull case gets shaky fast

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