News and my thoughts from the past week (28Sep2026) Benson's selected items (drafted from his inputs, his fact-check notes applied): 1. Weather and natural disasters across Asia. Typhoon Dujuan swept Japan's Kanto region around 21–23 September, bringing record rainfall, landslides and flooding with a rising death toll, and another storm was intensifying near Okinawa by week's end. Vietnam is still recovering from heavy rain and flooding across its northern and north-central provinces from mid-September, with homes inundated and crops damaged. In Thailand, all 50 Bangkok districts were declared disaster areas after severe rainfall, school closures and disruption to government travel — continued rain raises the risk of worse. In the Pacific, Hurricane Polo is real but its near-term threat is

Two-Thirds of Future Capacity Sold — Is Memory Becoming Less Cyclical? Memory stocks surged Tuesday, but the more interesting story may be happening underneath the share prices. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$   SanDisk says roughly two-thirds of its FY2028 bits are already covered by new business-model agreements. That is significant because memory has historically been one of the most cyclical parts of semiconductors. What changed? SanDisk says its new agreements with eight customers cover approximately 50% of FY2027 bits and two-thirds of FY2028 bits. The contracts include committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and pricing mechanisms.  That gives SanDisk something memory companies traditionally haven’t had: greater visibility into

Preview of the week starting 28Sep2026 - Payrolls, PCE and a coin-flip in Sydney Economic Calendar (28Sep2026) Economic calendar for the week (source: Investing.com, via Benson) A genuinely live week: two US prints that can move the rates path, one central-bank decision that is too close to call, and China going quiet for Golden Week from Thursday. 1. The RBA decides — and the market has not made up its mind (Tuesday 29 September, 2:30 pm AEST). The cash rate sits at 4.35%. Pricing is roughly 55/45 between a 25 bp rise to 4.60% and a hold; NAB expects the rise this week, ANZ, CBA and Westpac lean to November. The awkward part: August CPI lands on Wednesday, after the vote, so the board decides with July's 3.5% headline (3.6% trimmed mean) as its freshest read. Whichever way it goes, the st

The global semiconductor memory market in 2026 is experiencing an unprecedented structural squeeze. While Big Tech hyperscalers, GPU titans, and cloud providers aggressively absorb massive volumes of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise-grade DDR5, persistent shortages continue to plague the electronics ecosystem. In this article, we would like to offer a comprehensive financial analysis of High-Bandwidth Memory deficits, supply chain bottlenecks, and equity options execution. 1. The Paradox of Abundance: Why Memory Remains Constrained The contemporary artificial intelligence infrastructure boom has fundamentally re-architected the semiconductor demand curve. Hyperscale cloud providers and AI accelerator developers are procuring record volumes of memory silicon. Yet, persistent suppl

I don't think the market suddenly discovered dilution a day late. The shares were being sold through an ATM programme, so the dilution was happening gradually and was already known. What changed when the raise was completed was certainty: 29.3 million new shares had actually been issued, raising US$1.94B. That's roughly 5% dilution against Rocket Lab's previous common-share count. Thursday's rally may therefore have been relief that the Iridium financing was secured and the US$3.6B bridge facility could be cancelled. Friday then looked more like the market digesting the other side of that trade: a stronger balance sheet, but more shares dividing the future upside. So I wouldn't say dilution was priced exactly one day late. The market first rewarded financing certainty, then reconsidered w

I find the memory strength interesting because $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ , $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ all moved higher while the broader chip chain also remained positive. To me, this looks more like money staying within the AI semiconductor theme rather than a simple rotation away from chips. For Micron, the September 30 earnings will be important. I want to see whether margins and guidance can support the current memory-cycle optimism. A strong report could reinforce the thesis, while weaker guidance would make me more cautious. I am still bullish on semiconductors over the longer term, but I prefer to accumulate gradually during pullbacks rather t

I am leaning toward the view that AI has strengthened the memory cycle, but it has not eliminated the cycle completely. HBM and server DRAM demand are structurally stronger because AI servers are consuming much more memory, so I think this upcycle can last longer than a traditional cycle. At the same time, I understand Burry’s argument. Strong pricing will attract more capacity, and if supply catches up with AI demand, memory margins can compress quickly. For me, the key risk is the timing of the supply response, especially from new capacity and improving technology. I am still constructive on $Micron Technology(MU)$ for the mid to long term, but I prefer watching pricing, inventory and supply data rather than simply following the bullish narrative

I’d choose ③ — DRAM can stay strong, but NAND may peak first. AI is changing memory demand, but not every segment benefits equally. HBM and server DRAM remain closely tied to AI infrastructure, with rising memory content per server helping support pricing. NAND is different. Enterprise SSD demand is strong, but NAND still has greater exposure to consumer electronics. If new capacity ramps faster than demand, NAND pricing could weaken earlier. That’s why I wouldn’t ask whether the entire memory cycle has peaked. The more important question is which segment turns first. Burry’s warning still matters: high margins eventually attract supply. But timing is everything. For MU, SNDK and SKHY, I’d watch pricing, inventories and 2027 capacity growth closely. The memory trade may not be simply bulli

For the memory trade to stop needing the next price rise, I would want Micron to show that earnings growth can increasingly come from volume, product mix and structural AI demand rather than just higher DRAM and NAND prices. Strong HBM4 shipments, sustained data-centre demand, firm long-term customer commitments and continued margin strength even as pricing growth moderates would be especially important. If Micron can demonstrate that AI-driven memory demand remains ahead of supply into 2027 while volumes expand, the thesis becomes much more durable than simply betting on another pricing cycle.

A has been still trying to stay relevant! I hope the Ai revolution just crushes this idiot from a bygone era!!!

For $MU, I think the bigger test is whether the numbers show the cycle is translating into sustainable cash generation. I’d be watching free cash flow, capex discipline and how much of future production is already committed. If Micron can grow earnings without having to keep pushing prices higher, that could be a meaningful sign that the current memory cycle has more staying power. 👀

The most interesting part of the memory rally isn’t Tuesday’s gains. It’s what the order books are starting to say. SanDisk jumped 6.82%, Micron gained 5%, and SK Hynix rose 3.45%. Rosenblatt’s new SanDisk coverage highlighted customer agreements covering roughly 65% of fiscal 2028 production — a very different setup from the classic memory cycle where companies build capacity first and hope demand follows.  That creates an unusual question: If so much future capacity is already spoken for, is the market still pricing memory like a commodity cycle? There are two ways to look at it. 📈 The bull case: Long-term commitments give manufacturers better visibility and reduce the risk of aggressive inventory swings. AI infrastructure is also creating demand for both HBM and high-performance NAND,

The funding removes a lot of financing uncertainty, but now investors have to weigh more shares against the growth Iridium could bring. The key question is whether the market has already priced that trade-off in. 👀

Interesting setup for $INTC and $ARM. I’d be watching for more firm orders and longer-term commitments to see whether the strong CPU demand is translating into sustained growth. If that starts showing up, it could make the story even more interesting. 👀

The real question for $MU on Sept 30 isn’t just whether Micron beats — it’s whether management can prove the memory pricing cycle has become structural. If margins stay elevated, HBM demand remains tight and FY2027 pricing holds up, the trade may no longer need another price spike to work. 👀

🔥 Two-Thirds of SNDK’s FY2028 Capacity Is Already Sold — This Memory Cycle Is Starting to Look Different The most important number in the memory market right now may not be NAND pricing. It may be two-thirds. SanDisk has already signed New Business Model agreements covering approximately 50% of its FY2027 bits and ~two-thirds of FY2028 bits. These aren’t simple purchase intentions — the agreements are built around committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and structured pricing mechanisms. That matters because traditional NAND has always been brutally cyclical: Demand rises → manufacturers add capacity → supply catches up → prices collapse → margins compress. But what happens when a substantial portion of future production is already spoken for? 💡 The cycle becomes much more predicta

The memory rally is real—but the next phase is about proving earnings can catch up with expectations. AI is absorbing enormous amounts of DRAM, HBM and NAND, while new capacity takes years to build. That gives $MU and $SKHY unusual pricing power. But I wouldn’t confuse “sold out” with “risk-free.” CXMT is already expanding advanced DRAM production, while memory is still a cyclical industry. For me, the real signal is simple: watch whether strong pricing translates into sustained margins and cash flow. If MU’s September 30 results confirm that, the thesis gets stronger. If demand or pricing disappoints, today’s high expectations could amplify the downside. Memory isn’t just a capacity story anymore—it’s a test of whether AI demand can permanently reshape the cycle.