Mid-term Q4 seasonality has been remarkably consistent.
Since 1950:
- The October closing low has typically arrived early, with the median on the 7th trading day
- That low came before Election Day 19 of 19 times
- Low to Election was positive 18 of 19, averaging +7.0%
- Election to Q4 peak was positive 19 of 19, averaging +5.3%
- The Q4 peak has most often come in December, typically around 32 trading days after the election
One more interesting wrinkle: after the Q4 peak, the market finished the year lower 79% of the time.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
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