Alva Robinson
Alva Robinson
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avatarAlva Robinson
10-12 03:43
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Positioned for the next session with spreads bought on Friday. Mixing speculative trades with high conviction setups has worked well for me across 30 years of trading.
avatarAlva Robinson
10-12 00:50
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Shorts seem quiet on green days. I was still here even when I was down well over 100k and it dropped to 650. Shorts keep telling bulls they made bad choices going long. How has that worked out so far this year? I'll be selling puts again on red days. I still have 100 shares left at 689. All the people who wanted longs to go broke are the ones going broke buying puts, selling naked calls, or shorting. September was supposed to be the worst month, and it turned out bullish. My 1200 shares got called away, and I'm currently up $44,000 since May on QQQ. Over the past 45 days, put buyers on Invesco QQQ Trust have lost 100% of their premium on contracts that expired out-of-the-money. The underlying index surged into record territo
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  At some point in the future this trend line will be tested again. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ 
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Market breadth isn't narrow anymore, it's down to one stock: AAPL. As a bull, I don't need anyone to tell me how ridiculous that is. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 
$Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.(HTZ)$ This reminds me of $Avis Budget(CAR)$  in a lot of ways. That run from 100.00 to 847.00 turned a few hundred bucks into hundreds of thousands if you were holding calls. Same setup looks to be playing out with HTZ. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  pushing toward the high of the day helps too.
Mid-term Q4 seasonality has been remarkably consistent. Since 1950: - The October closing low has typically arrived early, with the median on the 7th trading day - That low came before Election Day 19 of 19 times - Low to Election was positive 18 of 19, averaging +7.0% - Election to Q4 peak was positive 19 of 19, averaging +5.3% - The Q4 peak has most often come in December, typically around 32 trading days after the election One more interesting wrinkle: after the Q4 peak, the market finished the year lower 79% of the time. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  These gains are sick. Stacking a week's worth of profits in a day. Yes.
Staying risk-on but keeping it selective here. Technology and semis still look like the areas with clear relative strength, and I'm letting winners run. Participation is uneven though, and rates moving sharply higher, so I'm not looking to aggressively expand exposure until broader sectors and longer-term breadth improve. Keeping some cash available and using weakness in leading areas for measured entries rather than chasing new highs. Watching $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  and semiconductor leadership, market breadth, and the bond/rate move for confirmation or deterioration. If improving internals broaden into more sectors, I'd add exposure. But if tech leadership breaks, breadth rolls back over, or rising rates start pressuring the major indexes more
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ Plenty of investors were expecting Micron to wreck the market. Micron did the opposite, and it may have given the Nasdaq a reason to keep dreaming about new highs.
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  750+ tomorrow. Bulls, don't fight it, just ride with it and make money.
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  Indicators suggest a double top similar to Feb 2025, with a flash crash incoming. Gap fill under 600, then higher from there, at least in my view.
$Celestica(CLS)$ It is remarkable timing that just as AI stocks are about to break their descending tops, Dario decides to have a Jerry McGuire moment. Does he seriously think the whole world is going to slow down AI development now? $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Someone said something, and now the world market is about to tank. Historically, this kind of moment has always been a solid buying opportunity in the stock market.
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta are winning the AI race. Fearing for their survival, Elon Musk, Amodei and Sam want to slow AI development.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  LFG. Almost forgot they were on tonight with all this drama around the Anthropic employee.
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ If you think the people who control the outcome care about a 20K portfolio, you're mistaken. The US has never looked so good, and the effects should become clear shortly.
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Here we go back up because algos and some people actually contribute to their retirements. Fun fact: markets go up 7 out of 10 times.
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  The upcoming CPI release should give some direction on whether another rate hike is coming or not. If the Fed holds off, that could be the setup for all-time highs.
$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ A lot of traders have been calling for a drop to $200. From where I stand, I think this is going to gap up to 750 instead. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 

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