I think the market is worried about both sides of the equation at once: future supply rising while AI demand may arrive later than expected.

Toshiba’s expansion raises the possibility that today’s HDD scarcity and pricing power eventually weaken. But analysts argue the reaction may be excessive. Morgan Stanley’s industry checks suggest Toshiba’s expansion is unlikely to eliminate the HDD shortage through 2028.

The bigger risk may actually be demand timing. Morgan Stanley estimates a sizeable US data-centre power shortfall through 2028. If data centres cannot get powered on schedule, customers could delay equipment deliveries, hitting memory, storage and optical suppliers before Nvidia or Broadcom.

That creates an awkward combination: more supply being planned for the future, but uncertainty over when demand can physically be deployed.

After the huge 2026 run in memory stocks, expectations leave little room for disappointment. I don’t think the market is saying the AI-memory cycle is over. It is asking whether current scarcity, pricing and earnings are sustainable enough to justify these valuations.

For me, power availability and AI deployment schedules matter more than Toshiba’s expansion alone. 📉📊