AI funding constraints are serious, but they are ultimately cyclical. If returns on AI infrastructure improve or financing conditions ease, spending can accelerate again.

Chinese memory capacity is different. Once CXMT achieves competitive yields and scale, that supply does not simply disappear when the cycle turns. It could create persistent pricing pressure, particularly in conventional DRAM, and reduce the scarcity value enjoyed by incumbent producers.

HBM and leading-edge products provide some protection because technology, yields and customer qualification remain substantial barriers. But over time, Chinese competitors can climb that ladder too.

So I would frame it this way: AI funding determines how strong the next demand cycle is; Chinese competition could determine how profitable future memory cycles are. For long-term valuation, I think the latter is the bigger risk.