Gu Fu Po
11-07

The real question isn’t whether payrolls beat or miss expectations — it’s what the numbers tell us about the Fed’s next move. 🎯

A weaker jobs report could ease Treasury yields and give beaten-down tech stocks some breathing room. But a stronger report could reignite inflation fears, push yields higher and put further pressure on expensive AI valuations.

I’d be watching three things:

1. Payroll growth: Is the labour market cooling without collapsing?

2. Unemployment: Is economic weakness becoming more widespread?

3. Wage growth: Is inflationary pressure finally easing?

Here’s my investment take: Don’t trade the headline — trade the reaction.

If yields fall and tech rebounds, quality AI infrastructure companies could offer attractive entry points. But I’d favour businesses with real earnings, strong cash flows and sustainable demand over speculative AI stories.

The biggest opportunity may not be predicting the next payroll number. It may be identifying which companies can thrive regardless of what that number says.

Markets reward preparation, not panic. 🚀📊

AI Earnings Lift QQQ; Will After-Hours Risk Reverse It?
QQQ rose 2.31% Wednesday as tech rebounded despite firmer October CPI. CoreWeave surged 24.71% in regular trading, alongside recoveries in memory and some chip stocks. Bulls see AI orders converting to deliveries; bears say one company’s growth and backlog don’t resolve industry financing costs, inflation, or rate risks. Nvidia’s governance report emerged only after the close, adding uncertainty for the next session. What must Nvidia’s response, Treasury yields, and CoreWeave’s deliveries show for the rebound to broaden?
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