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avatarOptionsDelta
04-16 23:49

Two Large Bearish Orders

ASML and TSMC earnings have essentially set the tone for this earnings season: solid results, but the stock opens lower. A couple of days ago, I mentioned that shorts were stepping in. On Wednesday, the bearish flow intensified, with two large orders in particular catching my attention. $NVDA Buy $NVDA 20260424 182.5 PUT$  — 50k contracts, notional ~$3M. As shown in the chart, institutions were actively buying these 182.5 puts expiring next week in the final minutes of yesterday's session. The implication: unless nothing happens over the weekend, something will. Not necessarily Iran — could be something else. Given how ASML has traded lower post-earnings, the expectation of a pullback to key moving averages seems increasi
Two Large Bearish Orders
avatarOptionsDelta
04-15 23:49

After the Bounce, Shorts Step Back In

$VIX$ A large VIX call order hit Tuesday: the 28 strike $VIX 20260519 28.0 CALL$  — 119.6k contracts, $11.48M in premium. A bet of this size implies a sharp, gap-filling move lower in the broader market. In theory, regional conflicts are winding down. The only thing Trump might be missing this time around — compared to 2025 — is that he never got to shout "buy" before the market did it on its own. But triggering a selloff just so he can make a speech? That sounds ridiculous. I'd rather believe someone else has an unknown reason to hedge with volatility. Another less clear VIX call: the 24 strike $VIX 20260722 24.0 CALL$ . The print landed right in the bid-
After the Bounce, Shorts Step Back In
avatarMcMillan Daily
04-16 16:57

Cheap Butterflies As Speculative Trades (Preview)

By Lawrence G. McMillan One doesn’t often consider butterfly spreads or condors, say, as short-term speculative strategies. However, they can be, if you set them up that way. The main problem with butterflies, in particular, is that they don’t reach their profit potential until very near expiration (unless the strikes are extremely far apart). Typically a butterfly spread is constructed in this manner: Example:Buy 1 XYZ May 50 call @ 6 Sell 2 XYZ May 60 calls @ 2 Buy 1 XYZ May 70 call @ 1 Net debit : 3 points, or $300 The spread has limited loss and limited profit. The maximum loss is equal to the initial debit of $300 paid for the spread. The maximum loss would be incurred if XYZ were below 50 or above 70 at expiration. The maximum profit occurs at the middle strike at expiration, and in
Cheap Butterflies As Speculative Trades (Preview)

Positioning for Earnings Season

The whole world now believes Trump won't keep fighting, so stocks keep rallying. There's a big difference between actually wanting war and pretending to fight while wanting a deal. As a result, some well-placed insider short positions that were heavily positioned for a crash this week are getting crushed — like the 31.3k contracts of the SMH 405 put for this week $SMH 20260417 405.0 PUT$ . Of course, something else could still happen this week. But looking at the lifecycle of these weekly options, this large order is likely headed to zero — unless Trump drops another "obliteration" tweet. Even then, I think the market would keep rallying. At today's open, a large bullish order hit: the software ETF IGV 90 call
Positioning for Earnings Season

TRADE PLAN for Thursday 📈

TRADE PLAN for Thursday 📈 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ printed a new all time high today. Bears are in shambles. SPX to 7700 possible this year if SPX starts to form a new base above 7k over the next 2 weeks. SPX April 17 7050C is best above 7000 $Microsoft(MSFT)$ big breakout above 400.. MSFT to 420-425 in play by Friday. MSFT April 27 420C is best above 410 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ keep an eye on 637 tomorrow if it gets through... 650 comes quickly. QQQ to 700 in play this year QQQ April 17 640C can work above 637 Good luck tmrw everyone!! 🫡
TRADE PLAN for Thursday 📈

Option Strategies: ASML& CAR

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you! 1 Looking at $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ for an optionselling earnings trade. Writing a May 15 expiry 1080/1000 put credit spread. The 1080P strike sits just below the gap and close enough to strong volume support (point-of-control). 2 At this point, how can you not want to short $Avis Budget(CAR)$. It has no business being in the $400s.
Option Strategies: ASML& CAR

TRADE PLAN for Wednesday 📈

TRADE PLAN for Wednesday 📈 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 7000 coming fast. Once we see SPX breakout above 7000 and hold this level for at least 2 weeks... We will see a new trend emerge to 7700 this year. SPX April 16 700C can work above 6970 $Micron Technology(MU)$ setting up to test 471, once it gets through 500 comes FAST. MU April 17 480C can work above 465 tomorrow $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ looks like it finally bottomed. TSLA to 383,400 once it gets through the 369 resistance. TSLA May 1 380C is best above 369. Melt up rally coming soon. We first need to see SPX through 7k and QQQ through 637. Good luck tmrw everyone!! 🫡
TRADE PLAN for Wednesday 📈

Price Target for NBIS is $200 by the end of 2026

The easiest trade of 2026 is still $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ and most of you still don’t own it YET 📈 NBIS jumped to $150, up 100% from its February low, bringing its market cap to over $38 billion. The 200 EOY target is very much still in play. Nebius has been basing under 140 the last few months and finally broke out this week. If $NBIS can continue holding above 150 a move to 200 can come fast. Trade Plan $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ above 160 Swing: $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ 5/15 200C Day Trade: $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ 4/17 165C Updates on $NEB
Price Target for NBIS is $200 by the end of 2026

Option Strategies: .SPX, MU& TSLA

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you! 1 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Trade Idea: April 17 360C Trigger: 352 ✅ Targets: 369, 383 🎯 Stop: 336 🛑 TSLA bottomed near 336 this past week. If TSLA can reclaim 352 coupled with some news, it can set up for a run to 369, 383 again. Calls can work above 352 as a lotto. 2 $Micron Technology(MU)$ Trade Idea: April 17 440C Trigger: 424 ✅ Targets: 442, 455 🎯 Stop: 410 🛑 MU had a strong move last week from 364 to 423. If MU can breakout above 424 early this week, we can see 442-455 next. Calls can work above 424. MU through 471 can run to 500 quickly. 3 $S&P 5
Option Strategies: .SPX, MU& TSLA

Option Strategies: TSM& NFLX

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you! 1 $Netflix(NFLX)$ announces earnings after the closing bell on Thursday this week. Expected move is ~6%. Am targeting put-write trades in the 75-85 strike range ... playing the recent bottom to the gap fill level. Expiration dates from Apr 24 to May 15. Might also strangle the trade with a naked call strike at 120 or higher, Apr 10 expiration. 2 $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ announces earnings before the opening bell on Thursday this week. Expected move is between 5-6%. Gonna write a put ladder targeting the following strikes (varied expiration dates): - 300 & 290 (at volume point-of-contr
Option Strategies: TSM& NFLX

Option Strategies: .SPX, MU& META

TRADE PLAN for Tuesday 🔥 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ almost 100 pt rally from the lows. SPX setting up for the big level at 7000 this month. IF we get positive news w Iran at some point in the next 2 weeks, SPX will set up for 7200+ SPX April 15 6950C is best above 6900 $Micron Technology(MU)$ setting up to test ATH at 471, We already saw $SNDK break out above and ran an additional 250 points. SNDK to 1000 next as well. MU April 17 440C is best above 425 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ if it holds the gap above 636 overnight it can run to 650-655 next. META April 17 645C is best above 635 Good luck tmrw everyone!! 🫡
Option Strategies: .SPX, MU& META

Option Stratgies: .SPX& QQQ

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 From early February into the end of March, we watched $S&P 500(.SPX)$ drop nearly 700 points. Every week felt worse than the last. Retail kept trying to buy every dip and got chopped up. By the time we bottomed, sentiment was at max fear. No confidence, no hope. And we bottomed around the same time as 2025… in April. Now flip it. When $S&P 500(.SPX)$ reclaims 7000, you’re going to see the same emotion… just in the opposite direction. Doubt, fear mongering, people calling tops the entire way up into 7700–8000. Traders will try to short when they should be going long. And most will miss the move. Whe
Option Stratgies: .SPX& QQQ

Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 4/13/2026

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 13, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/swkoOcxjtJE$GOTU$ 
Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 4/13/2026

Option Strategies: EOSE, BE, AEHR& SEDG

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you! 1 Closed out the naked call position on $SolarEdge(SEDG)$ for an overall profitable trade (including put credit spread). Didn't have to worry too much about this trade, which is the way we like it ... essentially, set it and forget it. Could have held on a bit more to squeeze out remaining profit, but decided to free up buying power. 2 Not for the faint of heart, but shorting $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ with credit calls (or buying puts) looks enticing here. Might wait for the turn on longer timeframes before entering into a position. 3 Closed out $Bloom Energy
Option Strategies: EOSE, BE, AEHR& SEDG

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/10/2026

$TVIX$ $UVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan After bottoming near 6300 on March 30th, $SPX has rallied strongly. The first stage was an oversold rally that carried up to resistance just above 6600. Then a temporary cease-fire was announced in the Iran war, and the market exploded with a large upside gap. That move overcame a number of resistance levels, and is now testing resistance just above 6800. There are various pockets of resistance all the way up to the all-time highs at 7000. Support is harder to quantify, because that gap extends all the way down to 6615, which should be support. Let's start with the equity-only put-call ratios. The weighted ratio (Figure 3) is clearly on a buy signal, and th
Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/10/2026

Option Strategies: .SPX, MU& SNDK

TRADE PLAN for LOTTO FRIDAY 🎲 💰 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ another strong day with SPX closing above 6800. SPX is only 175 points from the ATH at 7000. SPX to 7700 once we see SPX through 7k. SPX April 10 6860C is best above 6825 tomorrow $Micron Technology(MU)$ big breakout above 400 today. MU to 470 coming fast. Let's see if MU can run to 500 this month. MU April 17 440C is best above 420 $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ setting up for 1000. IF SNDK can hold above 830 as a higher low tomorrow we should see 900 by early next week. SNDK April 10 880C is best above 850. The market looks like it has bottomed, Good luck tmrw everyone!! 🫡
Option Strategies: .SPX, MU& SNDK

Will the Bullish Trend Continue? & Small Bets, Big Wins in Earnings Season

That's not an easy question to answer. But I checked the two perfectly timed insider large orders — $MU 20260618 400.0 CALL$  and $TSM 20260618 370.0 CALL$  — and neither has been closed. That suggests the trend could continue into earnings season. What's different between Q2 and Q1? Aside from the war, Anthropic announced $30B+ annualized revenue. Unlike OpenAI's verbal bragging, this sharp growth gives the AI sector a real shot in the arm. It won't lift all tech stocks, but it does keep the narrative alive that AI investment can generate strong returns. Anthropic's rapid rise is bad news for the software sector $IGV$, which is trending as weakly as Chin
Will the Bullish Trend Continue? & Small Bets, Big Wins in Earnings Season

Should We Bet on the Rebound?

Looking at the large option flows, after four consecutive up days, the market seems to have thrown in the towel. Sentiment can be broken into a few camps: No More Crash Camp: Short VIX $VIX 20260722 28.0 CALL$ , short SQQQ $SQQQ 20260410 76.5 CALL$ . Sideways Camp: Year-end sell puts on Intel $INTC 20261218 33.0 PUT$  and $INTC 20260918 39.0 PUT$ . Big Range-Bound Until May 1st: Sell put $NVDA 20260501 150.0 PUT$  + sell call
Should We Bet on the Rebound?

Trump Goes TACO, Market Reacts & Major Block Trades

Most of Friday's options flow was hedge-driven — nothing too notable. But two trades stood out: Sell 180 Call $XOM 20260618 180.0 CALL$  — 34.4k contracts, $12.03M notional. Buy 55 Put $XLE 20260618 55.0 PUT$  — 35k contracts, $5.04M notional. So someone was already short energy on Friday. Then Monday came, Trump rolled out TACO, and oil cratered. But here's the catch: XOM and XLE ripped higher and hit new highs anyway. Maybe that's why expiry was six months out — TACO fired the starting gun, but oil is supposed to slide over the first half. The consensus now: one more leg down. Still, early bullish flow is starting to surface. $MU$ Memory demand is struc
Trump Goes TACO, Market Reacts & Major Block Trades

Trading Stratgies: .SPX, META& MU

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you! 1 $Micron Technology(MU)$ Trade Idea: April 10 390C Trigger: 368 ✅ Targets: 400 🎯 Stop: 360 🛑 MU got caught in the Google TurboQuant compression algorithm selloff that hammered the entire memory sector. MU dropped sharply along with SNDK last week. The stock had been holding in the 380s and then flushed hard. It bounced with the sector on Tuesday and Wednesday on analyst pushback dismissing the TurboQuant threat, with Cantor Fitzgerald calling MU a top pick and Morgan Stanley maintaining a Buy with a $520 price target. The bounce was real but now we need to see follow through. If MU can break above 375-380 this week the path to 400+ opens up. Calls can work above
Trading Stratgies: .SPX, META& MU