Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week: Tariff Escalation? Fed Divided; U.S. Markets Enter Structural RotationTariff Escalation:Early this week, Donald Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on goods from countries including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and South Africa. The announcement on July 7 triggered immediate market panic. On July 9, Trump expanded the global trade war further by imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods and planning a similar 50% tax on copper, set to take effect on August 1. While long-term impacts remain uncertain, copper prices surged in the short term, boosting related mining and metal stocks. Data suggests that uncertainty from this cross-border trade war is gradually seeping into corporate earnings and consumer costs.Federal Reserve Div

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:“The Great and Beautiful” bill passes; conflicting employment data; U.S.-Vietnam tariff deal reached, but July 9 deadline looms?The "Great and Beautiful" Bill, championed by Trump, passed the Senate in a 50-50 tie (with Vance casting the decisive vote). The House also approved it on July 3, and it's expected to be signed into law on July 4. While markets fear it may worsen the fiscal deficit, it could provide a short-term economic boost — potentially just the beginning. In response, Elon Musk once again lashed out, threatening to form a new political force to oppose it.Employment Data Clash:June ADP report showed a drop of 33,000 jobs (vs. forecast of +98,000), pushing the probability of a July rate cut to over 27%.However, the next day, the

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeek Macro Highlights: Diverging Markets Amid Peace; Is the Fed Splitting Too?The Israel-Iran conflict appears to have reached a temporary conclusion this week. Although the U.S. launched strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, escalating tensions, a ceasefire was soon reached between Israel and Iran, easing market concerns. U.S. equities showed divergence: while the Nasdaq 100, driven by tech stocks, hit new highs, the Dow Jones, with its traditional energy sector heavyweights, remained below its peak.Fed Chair Jerome Powell is facing off directly with Trump. Regardless of Trump's accusations that he's acting “too late,” Powell remained unmoved on rate cuts. In his congressional testimony this week, he emphasized a reluctance to “take the blame” and expressed co

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly Macro Highlights: The showdown between the bigwigs With May’s CPI continuing to decline—core inflation easing even further—Trump launched a fierce attack on Powell at the White House this week, urging a rate cut and even specifying a "2 percentage point" reduction. Although his claim of saving $600 billion annually may not materialize, the reality is that with ballooning U.S. debt, government interest expenses are under significant pressure. On June 13, he went so far as to call Powell a “blockhead.” However, Powell remained committed to data-driven policy and resisting political interference, with no signs of easing tension. The market is closely watching the Fed's next moves.In macro markets, U.S. long-term bond yields fell by 6–8bps as expectations of Fed ra

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Highlights This Week: Disappointing ADP; A Springtime for Crypto? “Trump vs. Musk” EscalatesThis week’s ADP data showed employment growth slowing to a two-year low, indicating a second consecutive month of cooling labor demand. This has raised concerns about economic momentum and could influence monetary policy. While a cooler labor market might pressure the Fed toward rate cuts, steady wage growth and tariffs may limit the room for such adjustments. Attention should also be paid to the discrepancies between ADP data and BLS non-farm payrolls, as well as the potential impact of subsequent revisions. $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ successfully debuted on the U.S. stock market as the "first stablecoin stock." Its IPO price

Big-Tech’s Performance​​​This Week’s Macro Theme: A Sudden Appeal—Trump and the Courts in a Tug-of-War?​​The market rebounded so quickly due to the emergence of the "TACO" (Trump Always Chicken Out) narrative.On May 29, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that some of Trump’s tariffs and fentanyl sanctions exceeded the authority granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and ordered an immediate halt, briefly sparking market optimism (the index surged). However, Trump’s team swiftly appealed, and on May 30, the appeals court issued a "stay" order, temporarily reinstating the tariffs. The core dispute revolves around IEEPA’s applicability—the court argued that trade deficits don’t constitute a "national emergency," while Trump’s side claimed national security

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Triple Kill Across Equities, Bonds, and FX – Is Trump Quietly Backing Down?The week began with a series of "black swans": Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit outlook, Japan's government bond auctions saw weak demand, and the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction was poorly received. These were all ripple effects stemming from tariff tensions and hit the market just as the global bond market faces synchronized pressures:Persistent inflation (Japan’s core inflation has remained above the 2% target for two consecutive years),Declining ALM investor demand (as rising interest rates dampen appetite for long-dated bonds),Surging government financing needs (fiscal deficits and debt supply pressure).Rising JGB yields may push U.S. Treasury curves steeper, which

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Gold Pauses, Crypto Takes the Baton; Powell Clashes with TrumpThe May 7 FOMC meeting unsurprisingly paused rate hikes for the third consecutive time. The statement highlighted increased economic uncertainty, explicitly mentioning for the first time the "dual risks of rising unemployment and accelerating inflation." During the press conference, Powell dismissed political pressure, warning that high tariffs could lead to simultaneous increases in inflation and unemployment, hinting that rate cuts might be delayed until the second half of the year. Trump, predictably displeased, called him "Mr. Too Late," further escalating tensions between the White House and the Fed. Earlier, "New Bond King" Gundlach warned that inflation could exceed 4% by year

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Bessent Reasons Rate-CutsTariff Shock Moves Forward — U.S. consumer sectors are generally facing a downturn in sales, rising costs, and squeezed profits. This includes companies like McDonald’s, Yum! Brands (KFC/Pizza Hut), Starbucks, Domino’s, and Hershey’s. Many of these companies cater to lower- to middle-income groups, and consumption downgrades are leading these consumers to cut back on non-essential spending. Economic uncertainty is spreading.April ADP employment numbers released on Wednesday showed an increase of only 62,000 jobs, far below expectations and the lowest in nine months. The decline was primarily in education and health services, possibly due to the aftermath of the DOGE healthcare rule, while the impact of tariffs might not

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Trump to fire Powell? Earnings season coming with tariff desensitization!Although the Trump administration is still in the tariffs from time to time "demon", but the market after last week's volatility has been desensitized, but now trading is more "recession expectations", or the extent of the blow to corporate profits, consumer confidence.In the face of the worsening economic outlook, the European Central Bank on April 17 to complete the seventh round of interest rate cuts, and warned that the escalation of international trade tensions is a serious drag on the eurozone recovery process.The Fed showed a very different rhythm, Powell reiterated the need to judge the policy path based on sufficient data, triggering a harsh rebuke from Trump.Prev

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Recession’s back?Market volatility due to tariffs in effect has been no less than the 2020 period, in addition to the stock market's Monday plunge, identified by Trump as a "short-term sacrifice", the volatility of U.S. debt may be more concerned about the market (elevated risk of recession)?At present, after the first three days of this week's fermentation and "withdrawal", the short-term risk of tariffs has basically been cleared, and how the end of the future, basically in the current market has been Price-in the range, so it will not be too sensitive.But overall, the risk of the medium-term still can not be ignored, even if the final landing is 10% tariffs, the economic growth rate may slow down from Q2, embodied in the corporate earnings r

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Divergence on US stock marketQ1 of the US stock market experienced rain, so "whether it is a medium-term intervention point" has become a hot topic of discussion.Policies favor the real economy over capital markets, while "soft data" continues to weaken.The core differences and market focus on the direction of the market are: foreign capital flows (Goldman Sachs believes that foreign capital, especially European funds, will continue to inflow, UBS warned that the funds may return to the local market), sustainability of the rebound (Morgan based on the technical aspects of the short-term bullish, but medium-term by the impact of the policy, the Mo emphasized that the fundamentals of the rebound of the limitation of the space of the weak), positi

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: March FOMC: optimistic or pessimistic?The core of the March FOMC meeting was to ease market pressures through technical tapering adjustments, while keeping interest rates high to curb inflation.Despite the rising risk of economic stagflation, the Fed is still trying to find a balance between "premature easing" and "excessive tightening".The most over-expected move was a dramatic slowdown in tapering from April 1st.The Fed reduced the monthly redemption limit on Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion (an 80% reduction).The Fed stressed that the slowdown in tapering is not a shift in monetary policy, mainly in response to changes in the balance of the Treasury's cash account (TGA) and the debt ceiling, while optimizing the structure of the pos

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Powell work with Trump?Although Powell did not pay much attention to Trump, but Trump is repeatedly shouted Powell to cut interest rates.This week's CPI data was unexpectedly lower than expected, the super core services CPI is back to the mid-23 year level, and housing data is generally delayed, and from the industry data in the previous months, the probability of future downward movement is greater.Although the Fed mainly looks at PCE, overall inflation is trending downward, and inflation is currently an important bridge between Powell and Trump (both want to drop).But inflation now has tariffs as a variable, and Powell is not willing to take "depends on the data" this kind of rhetoric to deal with the market (because the tariffs are going to

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Exodus of "US Exceptionalism" trade. In the last two weeks, market risk appetite has taken an extreme turn, with AI-narrative chipmakers tumbling, pulling the Nasdaq back as a whole, and risk aversion rising, while the Trump administration's tariffs have continued to make waves and even become a primary focus of the market.Investors lowered their dollar longs and flocked to Europe and Asia to diversify into the U.S. market.Unlike the 2018 period, U.S. stock valuations are now at elevated levels, the market (institutional investor behavior with consistency such as CTAs) is cautious, and growth expectations are weakening (retail data from Walmart/Target/Bestbuy, etc.), overlaying not Price-in too much Trump policy uncertainty previously the marke

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline:U.S. stocks risk sentiment rose sharply, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ recorded the largest one-day decline since DeepSeek.Tariffs again, USD strengthened , but the Yen began to return to the "safe-haven" propertyConcerns about jobless claims data are starting to escalate, which could be a sign of economic problems or a consequence of the recent widespread layoffs in the DOGE sector, and it is suspected that the market is taking its anger out on the TSLA.Big techs, Nvidia's earnings report is naturally the focus, but the impact has declined, even if the data is still great, but "beautiful enough" will allow investors to take profits to step on.Since the beginning of the year, only META in the big technology reco

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline:U.S. stocks are relatively flat: Trump continues to point fingers on the "Russia-Ukraine" issue while further utilizing tariffs to scare the world, but the market is not surprised; the U.S. dollar continues to fall, U.S. stocks are hovering at new highs, and U.S. bonds are instead ushering in incremental volume due to the Fed's minutes message.Changes in non-U.S. regions gradually become the main line: China's AI main line caused by stock trading congestion; Japan's CPI exceeded expectations caused by the yen appreciation; and Europe will usher in the German election, the market is confusing; gold continues to new highs, Goldman Sachs target price raised to 3100U.S. stocks big technology, in addition to Apple's painless remedy for Greater China

Big-Tech’s PerformanceDeepSeek - Trump tariffs - tech company earnings reports, this is the main theme of trading in the U.S. stock market in the past few weeks.Market volatility has been significantly elevated so far this year, with macro-level concerns about the Fed's "rate cuts" and the strong dollar under the Trump tariffs.U.S. bond yields were unsurprisingly pulled back, even before the Fed's rate meeting, as the impact of DeepSeek unexpectedly triggered a safe-haven pullback early;Trump's tariffs are not new, in the 1.0 period, the market although mind, but more understand its significance more in the negotiation (Bargain), so also with easy to be digested;Rather, it's the earnings reports of big tech companies that have a greater guiding influence on the market.Technology companies,