$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ On June 5th, during market hours, Donald Trump and Elon Musk engaged in a heated argument across social media platforms, with their bickering continuing until the U.S. stock market closed.The way the two argued resembled a childish spat, almost like grade-school banter. However, upon reviewing the content of their exchange, it became clear that their political ideologies are fundamentally incompatible. This public clash left no room for ambiguity, fully exposing their differences. As a result, Tesla's stock plummeted by 14.26%.Both onlookers and institutional investors have tried to mediate, as such uncertainty has a significant market impact. Although the broader market was relatively stable, with the S&P 500 closing down

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ AVGO's earnings report looks good, at least from the perspective of institutions. The data might drive AI concept stocks higher, which has led institutions to roll over their sell calls on NVIDIA to next week and even raise the sell call strike price to 148.However, similar to NVIDIA's earnings report, it's better not to chase the rally after AVGO's earnings. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The bearish exposure looks bad. As expected earlier, there may be a pullback in the near term.

AI Stocks Receive Unexpected Tailwinds This WeekTSMC’s CEO spoke at the annual shareholders’ meeting, highlighting strong demand for AI hardware and announcing that humanoid robot chip contributions will arrive in 2025, a year earlier than expected.Meta signed a 20-year nuclear energy procurement agreement with Constellation Energy to meet the growing power demands of its data centers.Broadcom (AVGO) announced the official launch of its latest data center switch chip, Tomahawk 6, ahead of its earnings report.NVIDIA (NVDA) is set to attend next week’s Paris AI Day event.The most significant pending catalyst is Broadcom’s earnings report, scheduled for release after the close on Thursday, June 5th. Broadcom’s stock price has already begun to rise in anticipation of the report. Broadcom is ex

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The post-earnings pullback didn’t wait a single day—it started immediately. The target for this pullback is $120, which corresponds to the May 9th negotiation gap. However, it’s uncertain whether the pullback to $120 or $130 will occur during the week of June 6th.Overall, it seems reasonable to expect a return to pre-negotiation levels. After all, Trump’s sudden reversal today, accusing China of breaching the agreement, essentially nullifies the progress of the past two weeks.Some notable large orders:"200 Million Guy" rolls his position:Closed the June 20th $120 call and rolled into the September 19th $130 call:Sell to close $NVDA 20250620 120.0 CALL$ , buy

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Conclusion:NVIDIA's Q1 performance could have supported a stock price of $150, but it stalled at $143, primarily due to a lack of broader macroeconomic confidence. NVIDIA's fundamentals remain solid, making it one of the best stocks to hold. However, considering the upcoming triple witching day in June, it’s not advisable to take aggressive bullish positions in the short term.Earnings Data:NVIDIA’s Q1 revenue reached $44 billion. If we include the $2.5 billion lost due to recent restrictions, total revenue would have been close to $46.5 billion. Adjusting for the restriction, Q2 guidance ($8 billion) would translate to a total of $53 billion, reflecting a 14% quarter-over-quarter growth.Currently, four major factors are driving dema

$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ Unlike other large orders expiring in 2027, $ARM 20270617 130.0 CALL$  continues to see daily, consistent opening of 2,000 contracts, with a transaction value exceeding $10 million.From a fundamentals perspective, growth is moderate. FY26 revenue growth is expected to slow to 18% YoY, down from 24% in FY25. For now, it’s worth continuing to observe. $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ At the $100 price level, there is considerable divergence in opinions. Bulls are buying long-term at-the-money call options, while bears are buying short-term at-the-money put options. Essentially, the market sentiment is bearish for July and August b

Conclusion First:145 is a relatively important threshold. Options large orders betting on the earnings report primarily revolve around strategies targeting whether the stock will exceed 145 or stay below 145.For the week of June 6th (next week’s expiration week), implied volatility might surpass this week’s levels, and there could be significant price swings.The earnings expectations are relatively transparent. If the disclosed earnings match the known information, the stock price is likely to rise post-earnings but will most likely pull back afterward. A sell put strategy remains the most stable.Earnings OverviewThe earnings data this time is fairly ordinary, with bullish and bearish factors being relatively transparent. Revenue is expected to meet forecasts, but there may not be a notabl

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ The earnings report this time caused a drop far exceeding market expectations, with the price falling below 100—an unexpected event. From a bottom-fishing perspective, 90 is widely recognized as a support level. However, considering the recent overall weak performance of Chinese stocks, it’s better to observe for two more days before executing large trades.Why was the drop worse than expected? Before this earnings report, the bearish large orders mainly consisted of two types: hedging-based bearish positions and single-leg sell calls. These showed a somewhat negative outlook for the stock price but not a fully bearish stance. Among them, the single-leg sell call involved selling the

In the past few days, Bloomberg published an article titled Mystery Options Buyer Bets Some $3 Billion on US Stock Rally. The Chinese translation reads: A mysterious options buyer bets about $3 billion on a U.S. stock market rally.The article highlights that Nomura strategists have identified substantial open interest in long-dated call options on several tech stocks over the past month. How long-dated? Specifically, options expiring in June 2027. According to their calculations, the total premium paid for these options amounts to nearly $3 billion.In their client report, Nomura's cross-asset strategists provided examples of three stocks: Amazon, Salesforce, and ARM Holdings. The options buyer spent $316 million on at-the-money options for Amazon, $159 million for Salesforce, and $878 mill

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I suspect Trump’s premarket statement on Friday about imposing tariffs on Europe might be an attempt to buy NVIDIA at a lower price ahead of its earnings. Otherwise, why would he show support for his good buddy Musk’s earnings but turn bearish when it’s NVIDIA’s turn?On Thursday, options arbitrage institutions rolled their positions, and judging by the results, next week’s stock price may not be low. They raised the strike prices for their sell call positions to the 144–146 range while hedging with buy calls in the 157.5–162.5 range.From an analysis perspective, NVIDIA’s stock price next week could potentially hit 140, whether it’s before or after the earnings report. Post-earnings, the stock is expected to trade between 130 and 144

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ On Wednesday afternoon, a 20-year U.S. Treasury auction encountered some issues. Weak buyer demand pushed the 30-year Treasury yield above 5%, nearing its highs from Q4 2023.Notably, before the auction, at 10 a.m. EST, with TLT trading around $84.9, a large volume of $TLT 20250627 83.5 CALL$  expiring June 27 was opened. After reviewing the trade details, it was clear that this in-the-money call option was sold.Without a doubt, this is an insider-driven large order.Typically, if one expects a price decline, buying puts might seem like the better choice. However, based on TLT's price chart, the stock is already near its bottom. Comparing the

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The volatility is quite muted, with even options trading volume and open interest declining. Let’s briefly discuss NVIDIA's options expiring on the June triple witching day.On Tuesday, there was an increase in bullish open interest around the 140 strike, such as the $NVDA 20250606 140.0 CALL$ . These positions include both bullish and bearish bets, but the specific direction is less important. The key focus is on the overall open interest activity.On the bearish side, there’s a growing presence of deep out-of-the-money put options with a delta absolute value of less than 0.2, such as the $NVDA 20250530 11

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ On May 19, during the opening of the Taipei International Computer Expo, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang delivered a keynote speech. The speech did not reveal any major surprises: it mainly reiterated the company’s focus on AI communication infrastructure (e.g., NVLink Fusion) and long-term projects (e.g., robotics and Omniverse). Although the U.S. Department of Commerce's restrictions may have short-term impacts, the bearish factors are clear, and the company is expected to accelerate growth again in the second half of the year.As for next week’s earnings report, the bearish factors are also clear. Morgan Stanley analysts noted that they expect investors to anticipate a slight beat in Q2 earnings, with guidance remaining flat or slightly i

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This week’s trading range: 125–140.The upper limit of the range is based on institutional spread arbitrage strategies. Although institutions failed twice last week to roll their positions successfully, they continued rolling on Friday. For their arbitrage strategy, the sell call strike remained in the 139–141 range, while the buy call strikes were set at 145, 149, 150, and 152.5.This positioning makes sense. Unless there’s a major bullish catalyst—such as Trump promoting NVIDIA again—it will be difficult for the stock to break above 140, even if it reaches that level. The resistance above 140 remains strong.On the bearish side, the 125 put $NVDA 20250523 125.0 PUT$ 

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Next week’s target: 140.On Thursday, May 15th, $NVDA 20250516 132.0 PUT$  saw 58,000 contracts opened, with most of the activity leaning toward buying. The total transaction value was over $1.7 million, indicating that traders are expecting a pullback to 132 by Friday.From the transaction details, the 132 put was bought at NVIDIA’s intraday high. Combined with the transaction size, this suggests that the trader has high confidence in a pullback.However, since everyone is now anticipating a pullback to enter bullish positions, the market rarely aligns with such expectations. I think there’s a higher probability of the stock closing flat.Even if the stock doesn’t pul

$NVIDIA (NVDA)$Heading into earnings, NVIDIA's trading range has shifted to 130–150.Just two days ago, 130 was the upper limit, but now it has become the lower bound after a pullback—this is quite a drastic shift.Institutions have rolled their positions twice within a week, closing out spread positions between 130–137 and rolling into 140–145. Theoretically, there shouldn’t be any further short squeezes on Thursday or Friday. If the stock fails to break through 135, there’s a chance it will drop back to 130.After the roll, the strike price with the highest open interest for this week’s call options is 140. The stock price should stabilize between Thursday and Friday, so selling calls above 140 and selling puts below 130 could be viable strategies.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Feeling frustrated. On Tuesday, after institutions rolled their sell call arbitrage positions due to the short squeeze, NVIDIA’s stock price continued to rise. The primary reason seems to be the potential for another short squeeze following the roll.On Tuesday, the call option open interest was as shown in the chart: for this week’s expiration, all call options between the 132 and 139 strikes were part of institutional arbitrage strategies. When large-scale call options are opened consecutively across strike prices, regardless of whether they are bought or sold, there’s a chance it could lead to another short squeeze.The outcome will likely be one of two extremes: either the stock price shoots straight up to 140, or it pulls back be

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The Saudi order triggered a short squeeze. On Monday, the largest new open interest for this week’s expiring call options was at the 125 strike, but institutions didn’t roll their sell call positions in time. As a result, the stock price broke through the 127 hedge point and surged to 130.Based on open interest data, 130 appears to be the extreme price for this week. Institutions have rolled their sell call positions to $NVDA 20250516 132.0 CALL$ , hedging with 137 calls. I followed along to recover some losses.I must admit, Trump’s bullish comments had a surprisingly strong impact. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY co

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ As expected, some traders are taking a bullish stance early.On Friday, three different expiration dates for SPY saw significant bullish call option activity at the 580 strike price:$SPY 20250512 580.0 CALL$  with 52,000 contracts opened,$SPY 20250512 580.0 CALL$  with 29,000 contracts opened,$SPY 20250512 580.0 CALL$  with 25,000 contracts opened.These large orders were executed just before market close, as identified through unusual options activity filters.Now, you might wonder: with pre-market prices already