What a drama! Just when we thought we could relax during the Spring Festival, the options market keeps delivering surprises. Since most people in our community are involved in the NVIDIA trade, it's crucial to understand the new wealthy players entering the market and market makers' responses.Before diving into today's story, here's some background:The NVIDIA procurement guy is back, choosing to buy $300 million in straddle optionsOn Monday, January 27th, NVIDIA plunged 16.97% to close at 118.42 due to the impact of Deepseek's algorithm optimization. The next day, institutions released reports stating Deepseek had no impact on NVIDIA, and the stock rebounded 8.9% to 128.99, though still at relatively low levels.On Wedne

After the January FOMC meeting ended, there was no rate hike as expected. Powell maintained his previous stance on controlling inflation, but during the Q&A session, he mentioned he hadn't communicated with Trump, leaving uncertainty about whether his attitude might change after such communication. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ According to Wednesday's options opening details, this week's bullish top positions exceeded bearish ones, maintaining the original judgment above 120, with the upper limit raised to 130.Long-term outlook remains bearish, with strike prices down to 100, with positions extending to June. This is understandable - January's Deepseek incident suggests companies will continue to enhance computing power this year, leading to ongoing questio

Happy New Year everyone, wishing you prosperity in the Year of the Snake.I was stunned by Tuesday's options activity, please look at the screenshot:Buy to Open:$NVDA 20250221 119.0 CALL$  , bought 29.1K contracts, transaction value $23.99M.$GLW 20250321 55.0 CALL$  , bought 25K contracts, transaction value $2.6M.$KWEB 20250516 37.0 CALL$  , bought 19.3K contracts, transaction value $1.36M.$QQQ 20250221 535.0 CALL$  , bought 19K contracts, transaction value $8.98M.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ On Monday, NVIDIA's options trading volume ranked first in US stocks, reaching 10.18 million, triple the average volume!The data is very rich but relatively concentrated. Based on Monday's options opening details, the estimated near-term fluctuation range is 110-130. Whether it tends upward or downward depends on tech companies' earnings calls in the coming days and whether management's outlook on AI capital support has changed. The expectation gap could reach 100.Institutional sell call rollovers occurred in four ranges: 129-134, 127-132, 131-136, and 130-135. This week's upper limit is seen at 127.Based on this week's options opening situation, closing around 120 on Friday would be appropriate, though earnings report interference

Pure panic selling and deleveraging market conditions - time to buy the dip. We might see several such opportunities this year. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ It's now confirmed that this major drop was mainly triggered by DeepSeek. Why did DeepSeek, released earlier, cause today's drop?Because today DeepSeek topped Apple's App Store free app download rankings in both China and US regions, surpassing ChatGPT in US downloads.DeepSeek R1's significantly reduced AI training and inference costs, and this top ranking symbolizes global recognition of this advantage, directly competing with and outperforming US AI.QiMai Data screenshotActually, DeepSeek's progress isn't negative for the AI industry; rather, it accelerates the entire sector. Industry upgrade and scale ex

The current market situation shows Trump officially taking office, and S&P 500 Q4 earnings per share beating expectations, largely eliminating downward trend risks. No need to worry about major pullbacks before next week's tech earnings; selling puts carries lower risk. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Not much to say here - just maintain the bullish outlook.After the CES conference in early January, institutions set a target price of 160. The stock price will likely align with this before earnings disclosure, with minimal pullback risk.Wednesday's options activity shows long-term bullish sentiment with some pullback trend this week - sell puts on dips. Friday closing >140.Institutional sell calls got squeezed again, they've rolled positions to next week's 1

$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple recently faced two negative factors: first, Pelosi disclosed selling 31,600 Apple shares on Tuesday; second, TSMC's earnings report last week showed a quarter-over-quarter revenue decline due to seasonal factors in smartphone demand.The stock price has pulled back from its peak of 260 to 220, returning to levels before Trump's presidential campaign success.Considering Pelosi sold her shares on the 14th, after Tuesday's pullback, it might seem like a good opportunity to buy the dip or sell puts, but what's the actual situation?According to options trading details, put option positions show strong bearish signals, with downside targets at 210, 200, and 180:This time, sorting by open interest is more telling since Apple's downward

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$ After the rebound in the past two days, institutions have been eagerly entering long positions.On Tuesday, $FXI 20250221 31.0 CALL$  saw new positions of 66,600 contracts, showing strong bullish sentiment.The 66,600 new contracts consist of two large orders: a single-leg call and a call spread:Buy $FXI 20250221 31.0 CALL$ , volume 20,000 contractsBuy $FXI 20250221 31.0 CALL$ , volume 30,000 contractsSell $FXI 20250221 34.0 CALL$ , volume 30,000 co

In December, we summarized the bullish positioning in Chinese stocks, with two large orders particularly noteworthy: 98,000 contracts of $YINN 20260116 27.0 CALL$  traded in one day, and 210,000 contracts of $CHAU 20250516 15.0 CALL$ .These two large orders were positioned just before the December 9th surge, becoming highly visible in the market, with various media speculating about the source of the funds. After a month of volatility, on January 10th evening, Yinn plunged 8.69% and CHAU dropped 4.44%, finally forcing these large positions to close at a loss.According to Monday's updated open interest data,

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Morgan Stanley's new Tesla report title blinded my dog's eyes: "Revisiting our Tesla Robotaxi and Mobility Model: Target to $430, Bull Case $800"What's the main driver for Tesla's stock price increase? It's physical AI!However, for such an important driving force, the article didn't provide specific quantitative data - those who know, know.The article ends with three price targets: base case $430, bull case $800, and bear case $200.After reading, I'm at a loss for words - can only say it's invincible, though I won't specify in what way.Also, institutions' sell call 405 from yesterday got squeezed. Well, let's wait for earnings. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ &

$NVDA$After TSM's earnings report on Thursday showing long-term AI benefits, I expected to see large bullish options positions in NVIDIA. I was stunned to see 22,800 new June contracts with a $5 strike price! $NVDA 20250620 5.0 CALL$  With NVIDIA trading around $135, a $5 strike means deep in-the-money options, with prices approximately equal to stock price minus strike price. Each contract cost around $13,000, making the 22,800 contracts worth about $296 million.Deep in-the-money options have poor liquidity, and since this large order wasn't executed on-exchange, it took considerable time to fill.While the strike price may not provide much directional guidance, a $300 million purchase representing 2.28 million shares upon

I deeply miss the washout from August 5th last year. It's so difficult now.$NVDA$Let me first review last Friday - Wall Street was particularly crafty and didn't follow the usual playbook.Last Friday January 10th, due to large opening positions in 125 put $NVDA 20250117 125.0 PUT$ , considering time decay's impact on option value, I thought there might be a short squeeze in the opposite direction - a sharp drop Friday followed by a gap down Monday, so I bought 125 puts waiting for intraday decline.However, shortly after market open there was a deep V-shaped recovery. The rebound caused call volume to disperse put volume - option trading didn't become one-sided. At 12PM I saw no opportunity for the second half, so I closed

A moment of tranquility that needs no words, feeling very peaceful. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Expected price range next week is 140-150. Friday's pullback is normal, no need to worry. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla has earnings next week. Looking at institutional strike prices sold, there seems to be intentionally high pricing, even possibility of post-earnings rise.Could also be to avoid hurting short sellers after earnings when selling calls, though I don't see many short positions.Main institutional selling ranges are 440-480, 435-472.5, and 437.5-475.Next week's earnings will mainly depend on Musk's future promises. Tesla's current high valuation mainly comes from FSD iterations, Cybercab/Robotaxi deployment milesto

Following up on "Seizing Opportunities: 2000% Earnings from Earnings Reports," where we discussed Friday's short squeeze during earnings week. Today, we'll further explore non-event-triggered Friday short squeezes.Last Friday, January 3rd, NVIDIA opened high and continued climbing, starting at 140 and reaching 143-143.9 between 10:30 AM and noon. Having observed intentional bullish positions in NVIDIA's weekly call options over the previous days, and considering the possibility of a short squeeze triggered by overnight margin checks, I bought calls expiring on the 10th $NVDA 20250110 150.0 CALL$  to further test the squeeze theory.While same-day options would have been more fitting for a "doomsday" trade with better-look

$TSM$Like Tesla, TSM publishes monthly reports, so earnings focus on Q1 outlook and overall 2025 expectations.Overall revenue in 2025 is expected to grow 20% to $113 billion. Q1 2025 sales are projected at $25-25.8 billion. Capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to increase to $38-42 billion.Regarding revenue growth, institutions believe annual growth will exceed TSM's expectations, projecting 26-30%.Earnings data generally meets analyst expectations, with institutional price targets at 250, so continue bullish on NVIDIA!TSM is also good, but considering margin efficiency and implied volatility, NVIDIA offers better value.$ASHR$The large single-leg call position of 66,400 contracts traded on December 10-11 $ASHR 20250221 29.0 CA

Two additional large orders for Chinese concept stocks:$KWEB 20250919 32.0 CALL$  September-expiring 32 call, exchange-traded, opened 46,000 lots, total transaction value approximately 11 million. $ASHR 20250321 26.0 CALL$  26 call expiring in March, opened 32,000 lots, with a total transaction value of approximately 3.48 million. The trading direction is relatively neutral. Although the direction label is bearish, the transaction price is 1.09, which is not far from the difference between the bid and ask prices, 0.02 and 0.03 respectively. It can be interpreted in either way.

Bears are retreating step by step, with the expected crash delayed to January-February. So for now, continue with normal strategies - back to regular sell put + sell call daily tactics. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Comparing call and put options' expiry dates and strike prices, the setup is clear - expecting a correction in January-February.Top positions show puts far exceeding calls. Top call positions focus on this week, while puts are positioned around January-February next year. The previously mentioned March 565 put large position remains open $SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ For NVIDIA, the CES electronics show starts Ja

TL;DR: Next week's SPY trading range: 590-580.The title is a joke - I think it's unfair to blame Powell for the plunge.Wall Street is playing innocent by putting all blame on the old man. This plunge wasn't exactly unexpected; it had been brewing for a while. Institutions had been selling NVIDIA calls for two weeks at 140, waiting for a pullback since early December - they just needed an excuse for the plunge.The upcoming president's preferences are crystal clear - whoever triggers a stock market crash would be seen as opposing the future president.As usual, the FOMC meeting became the convenient trigger for the market selloff. Wall Street is using this opportunity for market correction, and after the adjustment, growth will resume its normal pattern.Regarding specific policies, the dot pl

Unexpectedly, after six months, we witnessed another earnings report squeeze on Friday with $AVGO$. With two cases now in hand, let's analyze and summarize the characteristics of this special trading pattern for future reference.Why should we master identifying this pattern? Because of the massive profits. The Friday closing末日call $AVGO 20241213 215.0 CALL$  saw a 3489% increase - this is true small-bet-big-return trading.The beauty of this pattern is that after Friday's surge, the stock continues to rise on Monday. If you missed Friday's rally, don't worry - you can enter at any time during trading hours, as the stock price will continue to rise next week.What is an Earnings Report Friday Squeeze?This is my informal nam