PeterDiCarlo
PeterDiCarlo
Quant Trader 💻 NEVER FINANCIAL ADVICE
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avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-31 07:44

$HOOD Key Level to Watch Is $70 Before Volume Gap to $40

Stopped trading $Robinhood(HOOD)$ at the end of January. It is down 40% since. Not touching it yet. Monthly chart is still showing a bear cycle. Until that flips there is nothing to do here. The level to watch is $70. If that breaks we have a volume gap all the way down to $40. I am not looking for a short term bounce. Bounces in bear cycles are traps. You buy it. It fades. You hold the bag. I am waiting for the full cycle shift back to bull before I even think about an entry. Buying dips in a bear cycle feels smart. It rarely ends that way. I will be waiting for confirmation of a rotation on the MBX For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stock
$HOOD Key Level to Watch Is $70 Before Volume Gap to $40
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-31 07:43

$PLTR Worst Case Targets $80 After Volume Gap Fill

Called the $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ trap weeks ago. Stock is now down 15% from that breakout. Here is what is happening. We are in a bear cycle. The monthly chart confirms it. In a bear cycle every bounce is a trap. Retail sees a bottom. Institutions see an exit. That bounce up to $170 I was watching did not even fully play out. The rejection last month was not a good sign. Worst case from here is another 30% down. That puts price around $80 after filling the volume gap. So what do we do? We wait. No buying. No bottom guessing. No being exit liquidity for the people selling into your confidence. When our bull cycle criteria is met again we will look to buy at a significant discount. Until then the trade is patience. For SG users only, We
$PLTR Worst Case Targets $80 After Volume Gap Fill
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-31 07:42

$NVDA Faces $140 Support as Selling Pressure Mounts

We exited $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ at the end of last month. Since then it is down 8%. Next stop should be $140. Every time price tests a liquidity zone the odds of a sweep go up. The monthly chart shows buying pressure being pulled out consistently. When institutions stop defending a stock they are not coming back to save it. So what do we do? Nothing. Yet. No shorts. No guessing the bottom. We wait for the selloff. Then we wait for our system to confirm buying pressure is rotating back in. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports
$NVDA Faces $140 Support as Selling Pressure Mounts
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-31 07:26

$TSLA Bull Cycle Ends Soon, Focus on Process, Not Outcome

In September 2025 our model flagged $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ entering a bull cycle. We were bullish from the start. At the peak the stock was up over 50%. We were targeting $550 by end of March. March is ending. The stock is up 6%. That is a miss. Now the bull cycle looks like it ends in April. Here is what I want you to understand. No system wins 100% of the time. That is not the goal. The goal is to find your edge and execute it without flinching when it does not work. I have been doing this for 11 years. I am wrong 35% to 40% of the time. The traders who blow up are not the ones who lose. They are the ones who think losing is avoidable. So they revenge trade. They size up. They abandon the rules. You take the loss. You move on. You take the next si
$TSLA Bull Cycle Ends Soon, Focus on Process, Not Outcome
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-31 07:23

$AMD Short-Term Hold, Monthly Close Will Decide

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ bull cycle is still active. Short term system still says hold. I am going to be honest though. It is not looking great. My expectation is that price fills the gap to the downside and I stop out around $160. I am still holding because the system says hold. Not because I feel good about it. When the monthly chart closes red I am out. If it bounces before that I will take the profit happily. But I am not jumping ahead of the signal. The goal was never to predict. The goal is to follow a system long enough for the edge to play out. That is it. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
$AMD Short-Term Hold, Monthly Close Will Decide
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-31 07:22

$MU Near-Term Bounce Signal vs Broader Bearish Trend

$Micron Technology(MU)$ $MU spent 2 months distributing to retail. Big players don't sell into panic. They sell into your confidence. This is why we said buying $MU wasn't a great idea Been bearish on $MU for a month. Called the pullback to $320. Now our short term signal is showing a re-entry. Historically this setup has a 70% win rate. If $MU is going to bounce, it's right now That said, I am not taking it. Here is why: I did not profit on the previous bull cycle. Taking the bounce now means I am chasing the tail end of a move I already missed. That is not how you trade a system. You take every signal or you take none. The moment you start picking which ones feel right you are no longer trading rules. You are trading emotions. We have no idea whic
$MU Near-Term Bounce Signal vs Broader Bearish Trend

$SPY, $QQQ, $NVDA, $MSFT Highlight Selling Pressure as Key Levels Break

Markets remain under heavy selling pressure. $SPY and $QQQ struggle near key volume gaps, $NVDA tests critical support with $140 as a potential target, and names like $ZETA, $SOUN, and $HOOD reverse sharply after prior rallies. Even $MSFT faces pressure, though long-term support zones hold. Disciplined exits and respect for technical levels are essential. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Expected a bounce on $SPY before $600 but this selling pressure is relentless. Still a chance some weekend news gives $SPY / $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ a short term lift, but my eye is on that volume gap filling to the downside. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $NVDA testing key liquidity support rig
$SPY, $QQQ, $NVDA, $MSFT Highlight Selling Pressure as Key Levels Break

Momentum Fades: $META $MSFT $QQQ Signal Traps, Not Dips to Chase

This week’s tech market highlights key traps and pullbacks. $META’s earnings breakout turned into a 25%+ drop, $MSFT continues its post-peak decline, and $QQQ signals caution when buying pressure fades. The focus isn’t chasing every rally, but avoiding catastrophic losses while staying positioned for parabolic winners. 1. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $META trap was set and executed to perfection This is why we don't chase pumps while Monthly BX is red We said the $META breakout on earnings looked like a trap ❌ Since then it’s dropped 25%+. 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ They would have said the same thing in 2022 and in 2008. The model is not magic. When buying pressure and relative strength fade, it is rare for th
Momentum Fades: $META $MSFT $QQQ Signal Traps, Not Dips to Chase

Mixed Signals | $PLTR $NVDA Lose Momentum, $NBIS Delivers +20% as $TSLA Holds Trend

Momentum across key tech names is starting to diverge. While leaders like $PLTR and $NVDA show signs of exhaustion or stalled trends, select names such as $NBIS continue to deliver, and $TSLA is still holding its bullish structure—for now. 1. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $PLTR 2‑year bull run is over My system flagged the end of the bull cycle back in January. Since then: 2 months of dead money and a classic bull trap setup. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I sold all my $NVDA at the end of Feb 🔻 Since then $NVDA has gone nowhere. Both of my systems are no longer bullish: trend still up, but BX buy-pressure flipped dark red. 3. $Micron Technology(MU)$ I’m still not buying $
Mixed Signals | $PLTR $NVDA Lose Momentum, $NBIS Delivers +20% as $TSLA Holds Trend

$SPY Holding Support, But $650–$600 Gap Looms Large

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 📈 While the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ bear cycle turned quickly, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has been slower to roll over. That said, Monthly BX currently has a high probability of closing red for March. We have been expecting a 5% to 10% correction for a while, and unfortunately price action is lining up with that view. In the short term, SPY is sitting on a strong liquidity level, so a relief rally is very possible. However, when MBX is red, most rallies tend to turn into continuation sell offs. There is also a major volume gap from roughly $650 down to $600. If this liquidity zone is swept or broken and price holds below, I would expect any se
$SPY Holding Support, But $650–$600 Gap Looms Large

$FANG $NBIS Deliver Gains While $SPY $BTC Signal More Risk Ahead

Recent trades continue to highlight a clear divergence: select setups are delivering strong returns, even as the broader market remains under pressure. Breakouts like FANG and NBIS have played out cleanly, reinforcing the value of disciplined execution. However, the bigger picture hasn’t changed — equities are still fragile, crypto remains in a confirmed downtrend, and risk conditions suggest that any short-term bounce could be temporary. In this environment, the focus isn’t chasing every move — it’s staying selective, protecting capital, and waiting for high-conviction signals. 1. $Diamondback(FANG)$ Breakout on $FANG played out clean and just hit our take profit. Congrats to everyone who followed it and closed 20% profit In a sea of red, it is n
$FANG $NBIS Deliver Gains While $SPY $BTC Signal More Risk Ahead

Nasdaq Weakness Continues: $580 Now the Line in the Sand

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Sadly, our expectations have been playing out. Since the THT Long Term model removed its bullish outlook last month, Nasdaq has continued to sell off. We are now approaching the final liquidity zone around $580. With the Monthly BX printing dark red, the odds of another 5% to 10% correction are the highest they have been in over a year. My short term expectation is a bounce this week, followed by another likely rejection in the $600 to $610 area. There is a major volume gap between $580 and $520. If this liquidity level is swept or breaks, I would expect a sharp sell off over the next few weeks or months as price moves through that gap. That said, we do not short. We stay focused on trading our system and rotating into sectors an
Nasdaq Weakness Continues: $580 Now the Line in the Sand

$SPY Bounce Then Drop? $META Weak, $NFLX Looks Like a Trap

$SPY is holding a key support zone but likely faces a short-term bounce before another leg lower. $META is breaking down in line with a bearish long-term view, while $NFLX’s rally looks like a classic lower-high trap within a broader bear cycle. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Strong support here for $SPY My expectations stands. Most likely short term bounce, followed by another sell off Hope I’m wrong 🤞 $SPY right back down to test liquidity zone support again Going to get REAL ugly if this level is swept. Bulls still hold it for now 👀 2. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Back in January our long term model stayed off the bull side for $META. Now it is breaking down in line with that view. When the long t
$SPY Bounce Then Drop? $META Weak, $NFLX Looks Like a Trap

Short-Term Bull Signals: $JACK $CAVA $PLUG Ready for Next Leg Higher

Recent price action shows a mix of divergence, volume profile resistance, and consolidation setups across key names. These setups highlight strategic entry points where technical structure and momentum align for potential upside in the next 4–12 weeks. 1. $Jack In The Box(JACK)$ $JACK is now down 33% since the short‑term long signal. Price keeps making lower lows while MBX is showing steady buying pressure. Classic bullish divergence. If this is going to bottom, this is where it happens. 2. $CAVA Group Inc.(CAVA)$ $CAVA is already +10% off the new bull‑cycle trigger, but it’s running into the heaviest Volume Profile resistance. I expect a short‑term reaction here, but if Monthly BX stays strong, I’m looki
Short-Term Bull Signals: $JACK $CAVA $PLUG Ready for Next Leg Higher

Market Move | SPY Rally Faces Rejection, QQQ Sells Off, TSLA Delays, UAMY Flips 100%

The market remains volatile this week: $SPY shows a relief rally but faces resistance, $QQQ continues its sell-off, $TSLA lags expected gains, and $UAMY locks in a 100% profit. Traders should watch key levels before making moves. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ & $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Nailed the $QQQ and $SPY sell off so far After this week’s bounce, a lot of people are asking if I think the selling is done and if this is the bottom. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I said $TSLA would be at $550 by March 2026. I was wrong 🔻 Both of my models are still bullish, but it has taken much longer than expected. Even with a solid system, you will be wrong at times. 3.
Market Move | SPY Rally Faces Rejection, QQQ Sells Off, TSLA Delays, UAMY Flips 100%

Market Check: Tesla Targets $440, SPY Needs a Breakout, Micron Flashes a Caution Sign

Three names, one timeline: the next two weeks determine whether Tesla and SPY extend their rallies or roll over. Micron is up 286%—well past the buy zone. 1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA: Long + short-term models are aligned ⬆️ Short-term target (6–8 weeks): $440–$450. But we need a strong rally in the next 2 weeks to flip the Monthly BX back to green. If that does not happen, both models drop the bull case and I expect a selloff toward $300 🤞 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY +1.20% to start the session. For this bull cycle to continue, we need a strong breakout in the next two weeks that turns MBX back green. If that does not happen, my base case is a move to 680 to 685, then another rejection. 3.
Market Check: Tesla Targets $440, SPY Needs a Breakout, Micron Flashes a Caution Sign

Mixed Model Signals: $CROX, $LMND Face Critical Test While $MU Rally Looks Overextended

Several stocks are approaching critical technical inflection points. While $LMND still holds a bullish model setup, names like $CROX and $HIMS face potential bull traps if momentum fails soon. Meanwhile, $MU’s massive +286% rally suggests the cycle may be maturing rather than offering a fresh entry, highlighting a market where timing and patience remain key. 1. $Crocs(CROX)$ CROX has only 2 weeks to bounce and flip the Monthly BX back to green 🟢 If not, this Bull Cycle was a trap, and we move on. 2. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ HIMS bounced +90% off the lows and just filled the gap. Both my models are still NOT long, so I’m sitting this out. When MBX is red, rallies like this usually trap retail. B
Mixed Model Signals: $CROX, $LMND Face Critical Test While $MU Rally Looks Overextended

Bearish Signals Persist for $PLTR, $META, $HOOD, BTC May See Short-Term Bounce

Several major assets are flashing bearish signals across multiple models, suggesting the broader market may still face downside pressure. While short-term bounces remain possible, the dominant trend for $PLTR, $META, and $HOOD remains weak, and even BTC’s potential rebound toward $80K may only represent a temporary relief rally within a larger bearish structure. 1. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Both of my models are still bearish on $PLTR ❌ I’m not shorting it, but I am staying out and waiting for confirmation of a real bottom. My expectation is a push back toward the 170 area at best, followed by another rejection. 2. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Both of my models are still bearish on $META 🔻 Each b
Bearish Signals Persist for $PLTR, $META, $HOOD, BTC May See Short-Term Bounce

Top Market Move | Re-Entry Signals Trigger for $UNP $ULTA $LLY

Market setups signal short-term bullish opportunities in select names, with $UNP, $ULTA, and $LLY showing high-probability re-entry points for potential 5–10% rallies over the next 6–10 weeks. 1. $Union Pacific(UNP)$ UNP just hit all bullish criteria 🚀 THT Combined Signal fired a fresh long inside this bull cycle. In this setup, 75% of cases see a 5% to 10% move up within 7 weeks. Average pullback before the move is about 5%, so my ideal entry is near 232. System says enter now. If we get another 5% drop, even better. 2. $ulta beauty(ULTA)$ 83% of the time this $ULTA setup rallies 8% to 10%. Long term bull cycle is intact. Price has pulled back into fair value again. Historically this has been a solid shor
Top Market Move | Re-Entry Signals Trigger for $UNP $ULTA $LLY

Rebound or Breakdown? MSTR, RIVN, NIO & QQQ at Critical Levels

Several key momentum names are approaching critical technical levels, with rebounds, support tests, and potential breakdowns shaping the near-term outlook. Investors are closely watching whether these levels hold to determine the next market move. 1. $Strategy(MSTR)$ MSTR +5% today and the $190 → $200 rebound is on the table. Monthly BX is still dark red, so the long term model is not bullish yet. In bear cycles most relief bounces are traps, so I’ll stay patient and wait for confirmation. 2. $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Volatile week for $RIVN, but my bull case is still on the table. Fair Value support is being tested and I expect a bounce into April / May if it holds. 3.
Rebound or Breakdown? MSTR, RIVN, NIO & QQQ at Critical Levels

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