PeterDiCarlo
PeterDiCarlo
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avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-27 07:34

Momentum Fades: $META $MSFT $QQQ Signal Traps, Not Dips to Chase

This week’s tech market highlights key traps and pullbacks. $META’s earnings breakout turned into a 25%+ drop, $MSFT continues its post-peak decline, and $QQQ signals caution when buying pressure fades. The focus isn’t chasing every rally, but avoiding catastrophic losses while staying positioned for parabolic winners. 1. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $META trap was set and executed to perfection This is why we don't chase pumps while Monthly BX is red We said the $META breakout on earnings looked like a trap āŒ Since then it’s dropped 25%+. 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ They would have said the same thing in 2022 and in 2008. The model is not magic. When buying pressure and relative strength fade, it is rare for th
Momentum Fades: $META $MSFT $QQQ Signal Traps, Not Dips to Chase
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-26 07:25

Mixed Signals | $PLTR $NVDA Lose Momentum, $NBIS Delivers +20% as $TSLA Holds Trend

Momentum across key tech names is starting to diverge. While leaders like $PLTR and $NVDA show signs of exhaustion or stalled trends, select names such as $NBIS continue to deliver, and $TSLA is still holding its bullish structure—for now. 1. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $PLTR 2‑year bull run is over My system flagged the end of the bull cycle back in January. Since then: 2 months of dead money and a classic bull trap setup. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I sold all my $NVDA at the end of Feb šŸ”» Since then $NVDA has gone nowhere. Both of my systems are no longer bullish: trend still up, but BX buy-pressure flipped dark red. 3. $Micron Technology(MU)$ I’m still not buying $
Mixed Signals | $PLTR $NVDA Lose Momentum, $NBIS Delivers +20% as $TSLA Holds Trend

$SPY Holding Support, But $650–$600 Gap Looms Large

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ šŸ“ˆ While the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ bear cycle turned quickly, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has been slower to roll over. That said, Monthly BX currently has a high probability of closing red for March. We have been expecting a 5% to 10% correction for a while, and unfortunately price action is lining up with that view. In the short term, SPY is sitting on a strong liquidity level, so a relief rally is very possible. However, when MBX is red, most rallies tend to turn into continuation sell offs. There is also a major volume gap from roughly $650 down to $600. If this liquidity zone is swept or broken and price holds below, I would expect any se
$SPY Holding Support, But $650–$600 Gap Looms Large

$FANG $NBIS Deliver Gains While $SPY $BTC Signal More Risk Ahead

Recent trades continue to highlight a clear divergence: select setups are delivering strong returns, even as the broader market remains under pressure. Breakouts like FANG and NBIS have played out cleanly, reinforcing the value of disciplined execution. However, the bigger picture hasn’t changed — equities are still fragile, crypto remains in a confirmed downtrend, and risk conditions suggest that any short-term bounce could be temporary. In this environment, the focus isn’t chasing every move — it’s staying selective, protecting capital, and waiting for high-conviction signals. 1. $Diamondback(FANG)$ Breakout on $FANG played out clean and just hit our take profit. Congrats to everyone who followed it and closed 20% profit In a sea of red, it is n
$FANG $NBIS Deliver Gains While $SPY $BTC Signal More Risk Ahead

Nasdaq Weakness Continues: $580 Now the Line in the Sand

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Sadly, our expectations have been playing out. Since the THT Long Term model removed its bullish outlook last month, Nasdaq has continued to sell off. We are now approaching the final liquidity zone around $580. With the Monthly BX printing dark red, the odds of another 5% to 10% correction are the highest they have been in over a year. My short term expectation is a bounce this week, followed by another likely rejection in the $600 to $610 area. There is a major volume gap between $580 and $520. If this liquidity level is swept or breaks, I would expect a sharp sell off over the next few weeks or months as price moves through that gap. That said, we do not short. We stay focused on trading our system and rotating into sectors an
Nasdaq Weakness Continues: $580 Now the Line in the Sand

$SPY Bounce Then Drop? $META Weak, $NFLX Looks Like a Trap

$SPY is holding a key support zone but likely faces a short-term bounce before another leg lower. $META is breaking down in line with a bearish long-term view, while $NFLX’s rally looks like a classic lower-high trap within a broader bear cycle. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Strong support here for $SPY My expectations stands. Most likely short term bounce, followed by another sell off Hope I’m wrong šŸ¤ž $SPY right back down to test liquidity zone support again Going to get REAL ugly if this level is swept. Bulls still hold it for now šŸ‘€ 2. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Back in January our long term model stayed off the bull side for $META. Now it is breaking down in line with that view. When the long t
$SPY Bounce Then Drop? $META Weak, $NFLX Looks Like a Trap

Short-Term Bull Signals: $JACK $CAVA $PLUG Ready for Next Leg Higher

Recent price action shows a mix of divergence, volume profile resistance, and consolidation setups across key names. These setups highlight strategic entry points where technical structure and momentum align for potential upside in the next 4–12 weeks. 1. $Jack In The Box(JACK)$ $JACK is now down 33% since the short‑term long signal. Price keeps making lower lows while MBX is showing steady buying pressure. Classic bullish divergence. If this is going to bottom, this is where it happens. 2. $CAVA Group Inc.(CAVA)$ $CAVA is already +10% off the new bull‑cycle trigger, but it’s running into the heaviest Volume Profile resistance. I expect a short‑term reaction here, but if Monthly BX stays strong, I’m looki
Short-Term Bull Signals: $JACK $CAVA $PLUG Ready for Next Leg Higher

Market Move | SPY Rally Faces Rejection, QQQ Sells Off, TSLA Delays, UAMY Flips 100%

The market remains volatile this week: $SPY shows a relief rally but faces resistance, $QQQ continues its sell-off, $TSLA lags expected gains, and $UAMY locks in a 100% profit. Traders should watch key levels before making moves. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ & $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Nailed the $QQQ and $SPY sell off so far After this week’s bounce, a lot of people are asking if I think the selling is done and if this is the bottom. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I said $TSLA would be at $550 by March 2026. I was wrong šŸ”» Both of my models are still bullish, but it has taken much longer than expected. Even with a solid system, you will be wrong at times. 3.
Market Move | SPY Rally Faces Rejection, QQQ Sells Off, TSLA Delays, UAMY Flips 100%

Market Check: Tesla Targets $440, SPY Needs a Breakout, Micron Flashes a Caution Sign

Three names, one timeline: the next two weeks determine whether Tesla and SPY extend their rallies or roll over. Micron is up 286%—well past the buy zone. 1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA: Long + short-term models are aligned ā¬†ļø Short-term target (6–8 weeks): $440–$450. But we need a strong rally in the next 2 weeks to flip the Monthly BX back to green. If that does not happen, both models drop the bull case and I expect a selloff toward $300 šŸ¤ž 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY +1.20% to start the session. For this bull cycle to continue, we need a strong breakout in the next two weeks that turns MBX back green. If that does not happen, my base case is a move to 680 to 685, then another rejection. 3.
Market Check: Tesla Targets $440, SPY Needs a Breakout, Micron Flashes a Caution Sign

Mixed Model Signals: $CROX, $LMND Face Critical Test While $MU Rally Looks Overextended

Several stocks are approaching critical technical inflection points. While $LMND still holds a bullish model setup, names like $CROX and $HIMS face potential bull traps if momentum fails soon. Meanwhile, $MU’s massive +286% rally suggests the cycle may be maturing rather than offering a fresh entry, highlighting a market where timing and patience remain key. 1. $Crocs(CROX)$ CROX has only 2 weeks to bounce and flip the Monthly BX back to green 🟢 If not, this Bull Cycle was a trap, and we move on. 2. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ HIMS bounced +90% off the lows and just filled the gap. Both my models are still NOT long, so I’m sitting this out. When MBX is red, rallies like this usually trap retail. B
Mixed Model Signals: $CROX, $LMND Face Critical Test While $MU Rally Looks Overextended

Bearish Signals Persist for $PLTR, $META, $HOOD, BTC May See Short-Term Bounce

Several major assets are flashing bearish signals across multiple models, suggesting the broader market may still face downside pressure. While short-term bounces remain possible, the dominant trend for $PLTR, $META, and $HOOD remains weak, and even BTC’s potential rebound toward $80K may only represent a temporary relief rally within a larger bearish structure. 1. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Both of my models are still bearish on $PLTR āŒ I’m not shorting it, but I am staying out and waiting for confirmation of a real bottom. My expectation is a push back toward the 170 area at best, followed by another rejection. 2. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Both of my models are still bearish on $META šŸ”» Each b
Bearish Signals Persist for $PLTR, $META, $HOOD, BTC May See Short-Term Bounce

Top Market Move | Re-Entry Signals Trigger for $UNP $ULTA $LLY

Market setups signal short-term bullish opportunities in select names, with $UNP, $ULTA, and $LLY showing high-probability re-entry points for potential 5–10% rallies over the next 6–10 weeks. 1. $Union Pacific(UNP)$ UNP just hit all bullish criteria šŸš€ THT Combined Signal fired a fresh long inside this bull cycle. In this setup, 75% of cases see a 5% to 10% move up within 7 weeks. Average pullback before the move is about 5%, so my ideal entry is near 232. System says enter now. If we get another 5% drop, even better. 2. $ulta beauty(ULTA)$ 83% of the time this $ULTA setup rallies 8% to 10%. Long term bull cycle is intact. Price has pulled back into fair value again. Historically this has been a solid shor
Top Market Move | Re-Entry Signals Trigger for $UNP $ULTA $LLY

Rebound or Breakdown? MSTR, RIVN, NIO & QQQ at Critical Levels

Several key momentum names are approaching critical technical levels, with rebounds, support tests, and potential breakdowns shaping the near-term outlook. Investors are closely watching whether these levels hold to determine the next market move. 1. $Strategy(MSTR)$ MSTR +5% today and the $190 → $200 rebound is on the table. Monthly BX is still dark red, so the long term model is not bullish yet. In bear cycles most relief bounces are traps, so I’ll stay patient and wait for confirmation. 2. $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Volatile week for $RIVN, but my bull case is still on the table. Fair Value support is being tested and I expect a bounce into April / May if it holds. 3.
Rebound or Breakdown? MSTR, RIVN, NIO & QQQ at Critical Levels

Mixed Signals: $TXN Lights Up, $NBIS Hits Target, $QQQ Looks Fragile

Markets look messy right now, but a few interesting setups are starting to emerge: 1. $Texas Instruments(TXN)$ Market looks ugly, but $TXN just lit up on BOTH of my systems. Monthly BX flipped green in Jan and my short-term reentry just fired after a 12% pullback. Asymmetric setup: coin-flip odds with 3–4x upside vs downside. 2. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ NBIS Up 25% from a level we called before the bounce. Just hit our first target off a simple re‑entry signal with a ~70% win rate and tight risk. 3. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ā€œI’m bearish on $QQQ and hope I am wrong āŒ I think we’re setting up for a 5–10% flush that punishes every ā€˜buy the dip’ trader. I hope I'm wrong but here’s exa
Mixed Signals: $TXN Lights Up, $NBIS Hits Target, $QQQ Looks Fragile

$IREN $NBIS $GS and $MGM Show Bullish Setups as Key Levels Hold

Several stocks are showing constructive technical setups as key support and volume levels hold. $IREN continues to respect a major liquidity zone, $NBIS is gaining momentum with a potential gap-fill squeeze, $GS is testing a critical monthly signal that could confirm a bullish move, and $MGM is quietly compressing within a bullish cycle, setting up for a possible breakout over the next 30–60 days. šŸ“ˆ 1. $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ IREN respected this liquidity zone again today. As long as this level holds, I’m expecting a push back up to retest 52. 2. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ NBIS is already up 14% since I posted this. If this volume level gets swept, I’m expecting the gap to fill and price to squeeze up toward 125. šŸŽÆ 3.
$IREN $NBIS $GS and $MGM Show Bullish Setups as Key Levels Hold

$QQQ Models Turn Bearish as Monthly BX Flips Red

Both my models are bearish on $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ šŸ”“ Monthly BX is now red, which is the first‑principles signal for these models. Trend is still trying to hold, but it’s fighting a massive volume block on the THT volume profile with a big air pocket sitting right below it. I want the market to push to new all‑time highs as much as anyone, but being objective my base case here is a rejection in the next week and a multi‑week to multi‑month selloff. Best case I see a move toward 560, but more realistically I’m eyeing 540 as the magnet. As I said yestorday: Heading into tomorrow’s inflation data and this still looks like a trap on $QQQ. Monthly BX remains bearish. Most bounces from here have led to lower highs and more selling. Price is also pushing in
$QQQ Models Turn Bearish as Monthly BX Flips Red

QQQ Faces 5% Downside Risk as SPY Tests $680–$690 While UAMY Locks Gains

Markets are approaching a key macro test with inflation data ahead. QQQ is nearing a potential rejection zone with downside risk building, SPY is approaching a critical resistance band, while UAMY remains bullish even as profits are partially locked in after a strong run. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Heading into tomorrow’s inflation data and this still looks like a trap on $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ . Monthly BX remains bearish. Most bounces from here have led to lower highs and more selling. Price is also pushing into the Daily Bias, which is bearish right now. In a downtrend, that level often acts as resistance. I’m prepared for about 5% downside over the next 30 days. Hoping this doesn’t happen, but if $QQQ is going t
QQQ Faces 5% Downside Risk as SPY Tests $680–$690 While UAMY Locks Gains

$QQQ System Still Bearish as $CAVA $IREN Maintain Bull Cycles

A sharp rally triggered by geopolitical headlines has lifted equities, but underlying signals remain mixed. While the system stays cautious on Invesco QQQ Trust and watches a key turning point for Tesla Inc., bullish cycles continue to hold in CAVA Group Inc. and IREN Ltd. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Market just ripped +1.5% in 30 minutes on ā€œwar might end soonā€ headlines. My system is still bearish on $QQQ and cautious on $SPY. šŸ”» I’m long 63 stocks. If I’m right, my fund gets hurt short term. I walk through the data, BX Trend, and why this bounce may be exit liquidity ā¬‡ļø 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA is still in a bull cycle… but we’re right on the edge. If price doesn’t bounce soon, the Monthly BX will close re
$QQQ System Still Bearish as $CAVA $IREN Maintain Bull Cycles

$NVDA Exit Signal as $POET $CROX $AMD Maintain Bullish Bias

Technical signals are diverging across key tech and growth names. While NVIDIA faces correction risk after a bearish monthly signal, bullish setups continue to build in POET Technologies Inc, Crocs Inc., and Advanced Micro Devices as momentum and trend indicators remain supportive. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Closed out all my $NVDA to start March. Setup is not pretty. Monthly BX closed red, signaling a likely correction, and I still expect a 10–15% move down into the Monthly Fair Value Range. You’re allowed to be wrong in your conviction. You are not allowed to bag hold. 2. $Crocs(CROX)$ CROX is starting to show early signs of a new bull cycle. Our THT Short Term strategy just printed a buy signal on this name. Hi
$NVDA Exit Signal as $POET $CROX $AMD Maintain Bullish Bias

$META $NFLX Bear Cycles Persist as $CAVA Signals New Bull Run

Several major stocks are diverging in trend direction as technical cycles reset. While Meta Platforms Inc. and Netflix Inc. remain trapped in bearish structures with rallies likely to fade, CAVA Group Inc. is flashing signals of a potential new bull cycle. 1. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ META trap was set and we called it. Our Monthly BX model has been bearish since November while price compressed. Earnings spike looked strong, but it did not change the rules, so we stayed flat. Base case: further downside toward $550 over the next 4–6 weeks. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ When a name is in a bear cycle, most bounces are traps. $NFLX Our Monthly BX system flipped this to sell in October 2025 after a long bull run. I
$META $NFLX Bear Cycles Persist as $CAVA Signals New Bull Run

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