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花一样的男子

2023-03-20

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Credit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis

花一样的男子

2023-03-15

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Buffett sold right again? The wave of price cuts in the car circle is sudden, the latest interpretation of fund managers

花一样的男子

2023-03-15

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@聪明投资人:巴菲特加倉西方石油到22.2%！兩位公募基金經理解讀最新股東信中的價值投資祕笈

花一样的男子

2023-03-13

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Hong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became "blood debt"

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The top officials of the U.S. government and CEOs of major U.S. banks interviewed have gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.</p><p>CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others from Wall Street described dramatic 24/7 negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment when he realized that a Lehman bankruptcy could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin asked this question again and again to those reunited by this documentary. They recalled the nightmare they faced ten years ago and shared weal and woe with the world's financial destiny.</p><p>The main character of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to go bankrupt in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for help, hoping that he would provide financial support in a pinch. He later referred to this incident as \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett gave some details of the crisis process, the interlocking impact on regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One's own considerations have been talked about, and the handling of human nature is also very interesting.</p><p>He said, \"<b>Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b>”</p><p>\"Crisis always comes at some point,<b>But I'm not worried about the crisis because I manage my behavior properly.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was launched in 2018, ten years after the crisis. Such a just right time distance makes Buffett's retrospection and thinking more meaningful in the present.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Opposite shore<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>, spreading investors' concerns about the stability of the European and American banking systems.</p><p>At this time, it will be very enlightening for us to look back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight given to decision-making information, and the consistent investment principles he holds.</p><p>This translation by Eason is very pleasant to read. I hope it will be beneficial for everyone to open the book.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Going back to 2008 and looking at the big picture, what do you think caused the 2008 crisis.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>The numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that people think that housing will only go up and not go down, and the housing market is at $2 trillion. It's a very huge asset class.</p><p>People used it as money (through asset securitization), but then people found that it didn't go all the way up.</p><p>They borrowed money through real estate, which affected this incident from beginning to end in this rope.</p><p>The people at the top of the rope are busy issuing mortgages on real estate they know they don't need to hold, and they can immediately pack them and sell them to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and whether the monthly payment of the mortgage lender is too high or whether they are misstating their income doesn't seem to have any impact on them.</p><p>The people who refinanced them were also involved.</p><p>Essentially, there is a huge speculation in real estate. Of the 75 million American home buyers, 50 million participated in the mortgage business, and only 25 million avoided the impact. 50 million loan households get houses through leverage, and many people depend on them to survive, while their asset prices collapse.</p><p>This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.</p><p>They believe (real estate prices only go up but not down), and when people believe something ridiculous, such things will happen.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>In early 2008, some hedge funds holding subprime loans collapsed. Were you worried at that time? Do you remember your mood at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I always assume that (if) I participate in the American economy all my life, its value will rise sharply over time, but at the same time, it will be accompanied by some stumbling.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will have some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, and I don't predict the business (future direction), I just try to adapt to everything that happens.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did get a call from a leading Wall Street company trying to sell us many, many, many billions of Freddie Mac stock. I knew something might have gone wrong.</p><p><b>\"I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the front page, and I knew that we wouldn't invest in it (Lehman).\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>I don't know if you remember, after Bear Stearns fell and before Freddie and Fannie, you received a phone call from Richard Dick Fuld, chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers, who told you that his stock was being attacked by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, I highly doubt anyone saying that to me. I like people who sell short Berkshire, how can short sellers hurt you?</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Forde said that you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion yuan. Were you interested at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm interested in hearing him out.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>How did you respond to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him, give me your thoughts, first tell me your offer, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could get Henry \"Hank\" Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) to call me about the issue.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. on Friday morning, and he offered some totally substandard endorsements. He probably hoped that I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch was too hard. I think he also realized it was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, I opened Lehman's 10K report that afternoon and it was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we wouldn't invest in it.</p><p>My office still keeps this note.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What do you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances and scenarios that were already happening on Wall Street at the time, and probably happening to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Now we come to \"that weekend\" of September 12, 2008. What you are getting now is not a phone call from Lehman Brothers but a phone call from AIG asking if you would like to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you guys, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point in time, I refused.</p><p>Soon after, they returned to our view. I said at the time, I can't solve this problem. We have to pay about 27 billion dollars. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we will go because of this.</p><p>What was true then was that they passed me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday night telling me they were in crisis.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What do you think it means that they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This means, they know that if we see something, our actions can be very quick. We are probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.</p><p>And for this case, they know that I am very interested in the insurance business. They may be out of business in a few days, so they are also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and was aware of everything that was going on, I think whether I had the ability to step in or not, I would choose to step in.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>When many people look back on this crisis, they still regard the fall of Lehman Brothers that weekend as the crucial moment of the crisis, and debate whether the US government should intervene at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>And the Wall Street Journal both wrote op-eds praising (the U.S. government didn't intervene).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yeah, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street guys fuck off, we've had enough of them\".</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that whatever they want to do, they can do it. This may change somewhat under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...</p><p>(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during the Obama presidency.)</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So you think if the Fed wanted to step in, they could have stepped in at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and saw everything that was going on in the United States, I think I would choose to step in whether I was able to step in or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court may have arrested me as a criminal, but I think from the perspective of national interest, that's what I have to do in that role.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise too much to the public. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink drastically, and various personal problems.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be rescued and the people will be protected.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Fed, and others in need of a bailout.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>HUGE. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then chairman of the New York Fed) and George Bush were arguing fiercely, but the American people wouldn't buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in this whole affair is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, who bought Merrill Lynch. \"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG was bailed out. But then, people began to worry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>When Lehman went bankrupt, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell like dominoes one after another, and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to take into account the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress didn't realize the magnitude of the problem, Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but his ability to realize the seriousness of the problem made me give him a high grade.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, when Goldman comes to you for money, you'll remember it.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think there are reliable people in power in the Treasury Department, reliable people in power in the Federal Reserve, and the president is reliable, except Congress worries me. I think the Golden Meeting is intact as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero of the whole affair is that Ken Lewis (CEO of Bank of America) bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice to buy Merrill Lynch for $30 (Note: In fact, Bank of America paid $30 billion to buy Merrill Lynch for about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At that time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said that we would pay $30 (a share) to buy it, which was a fair price.</p><p>If not, Merrill Lynch could be at only 30 cents on Monday.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>You think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>For the financial system as a whole, this is not a mistake. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after its acquisition, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced its acquisition on Sunday, it might have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>At the Lehman moment, if they decided to take the money to bail out Lehman, they would have to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on their own, and the whole thing would be different.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Looking back at that history, are there some things you felt you should have done but didn't do? What investments are not reached?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I can look back on any week and find something like this.</p><p>If we could have waited an extra 4-5 months at that time, Berkshire could have bought a lot of things cheaper. Shares were much cheaper in March 2009 than they were in October 2008.</p><p>I wrote an op-ed in the New York Times in late October 2008, and I was right in the long run, but it was much cheaper after 4-5 months.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Do you think, this system has taken us so much forward, but still takes us back to the Great Depression, where are these red lines?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not properly handled, it may last longer. But there is always a way out of the crisis, and we have come out of the crisis.</p><p>At one point, the government must step up and step in to solve the crisis. There is only one force in the whole world that can make people reduce leverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they don't do so for some reason, the crisis will come.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>For the public, the new generation, are there any lessons they can learn from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No, no. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was set up.</p><p>In the nineteenth century, there were all kinds of panic in our country.<b>Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's IQ. Even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.</p><p>I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear. At that time, they chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is enormous.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Do you see any connections, implications between the crisis of ten years ago and the politics, governments and institutions of the present?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memory. The same was true in 1929, which took a long time. When they feel extreme fear, something will be left and engraved in their minds.</p><p>They want to know who causes their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>When buying a house, falsely report a little income on the loan application form, think that house prices will continue to rise, so refinance accordingly, etc. Who will be blamed for these things?</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? It's also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>A lot of people do very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always people doing fake things. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market, because you can easily make money from it. You can make a new loan in Bakersfield, California and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, and the value of one security contract is based on another contract.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to look at 300,000 pages of material to understand primary securities and subordinate securities based on it and so on. Moreover, for quite some time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this way.</p><p>Crisis will happen here.</p><p><b>\"Crisis will always come at some point, but I'm not worried about it. Because I manage my behavior properly.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crisis always comes at some point, but I'm not worried about it.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Why?</p><p><b>Buffett because I manage my behavior properly, even if another crisis comes, Berkshire will be very healthy</b>。</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What are you worried about at the moment?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people into the market who completely don't understand it. People are interested in it because of asset appreciation, but they don't really know it themselves.</p><p>When you think your neighbor, who is much dumber than you, has become rich because of rising asset prices, and you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>It's just so contagious.</p><p>This is a part of the capital system that will always be there. But you ask me which class of assets is in this state right now, and I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Are we better positioned to deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is an interesting question. I've never read the 2,000 + pages of the Dodd-Frank Act in its entirety, I've only read the synopsis.</p><p>I have a view, and my view may be wrong. But I (do) think that this bill may hinder the Fed from dealing with the crisis quickly and cooperatively.</p><p>It was a terrible mistake, I would say. We need a Fed with powerful power!</p><p>You may not like it, and it may do something you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion residential market and more than 75 million home buyers, you need a force capable of reducing leverage.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\" on CNBC at that time. I had never used such a metaphor before. I felt that I had never experienced anything like this before.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis at that time was even worse than it was in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow plunged after hitting a high of 381. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones has returned to 250 points. It has not caused so many people to panic on such a widespread scale.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but the scope of Wall Street at that time was far less than it is now, which may be caused by 401K and many other things. Dwelling will reach everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1679202057054","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IN咖</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-19 13:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, CNBC premiered the original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\" on September 12, 2018.</p><p>In this documentary, Andrew Ross Sorkin, the CNBC anchor and author of the best-selling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews people who were mostly at the center of the vortex at that time, trying to show the public how the United States and the world in 2008 were close to a total economic collapse and led to the worst financial crisis in generations.</p><p>The documentary is a series of exciting interviews. The top officials of the U.S. government and CEOs of major U.S. banks interviewed have gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.</p><p>CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others from Wall Street described dramatic 24/7 negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment when he realized that a Lehman bankruptcy could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin asked this question again and again to those reunited by this documentary. They recalled the nightmare they faced ten years ago and shared weal and woe with the world's financial destiny.</p><p>The main character of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to go bankrupt in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for help, hoping that he would provide financial support in a pinch. He later referred to this incident as \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett gave some details of the crisis process, the interlocking impact on regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One's own considerations have been talked about, and the handling of human nature is also very interesting.</p><p>He said, \"<b>Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b>”</p><p>\"Crisis always comes at some point,<b>But I'm not worried about the crisis because I manage my behavior properly.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was launched in 2018, ten years after the crisis. Such a just right time distance makes Buffett's retrospection and thinking more meaningful in the present.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Opposite shore<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>, spreading investors' concerns about the stability of the European and American banking systems.</p><p>At this time, it will be very enlightening for us to look back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight given to decision-making information, and the consistent investment principles he holds.</p><p>This translation by Eason is very pleasant to read. I hope it will be beneficial for everyone to open the book.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Going back to 2008 and looking at the big picture, what do you think caused the 2008 crisis.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>The numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that people think that housing will only go up and not go down, and the housing market is at $2 trillion. It's a very huge asset class.</p><p>People used it as money (through asset securitization), but then people found that it didn't go all the way up.</p><p>They borrowed money through real estate, which affected this incident from beginning to end in this rope.</p><p>The people at the top of the rope are busy issuing mortgages on real estate they know they don't need to hold, and they can immediately pack them and sell them to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and whether the monthly payment of the mortgage lender is too high or whether they are misstating their income doesn't seem to have any impact on them.</p><p>The people who refinanced them were also involved.</p><p>Essentially, there is a huge speculation in real estate. Of the 75 million American home buyers, 50 million participated in the mortgage business, and only 25 million avoided the impact. 50 million loan households get houses through leverage, and many people depend on them to survive, while their asset prices collapse.</p><p>This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.</p><p>They believe (real estate prices only go up but not down), and when people believe something ridiculous, such things will happen.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>In early 2008, some hedge funds holding subprime loans collapsed. Were you worried at that time? Do you remember your mood at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I always assume that (if) I participate in the American economy all my life, its value will rise sharply over time, but at the same time, it will be accompanied by some stumbling.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will have some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, and I don't predict the business (future direction), I just try to adapt to everything that happens.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did get a call from a leading Wall Street company trying to sell us many, many, many billions of Freddie Mac stock. I knew something might have gone wrong.</p><p><b>\"I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the front page, and I knew that we wouldn't invest in it (Lehman).\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>I don't know if you remember, after Bear Stearns fell and before Freddie and Fannie, you received a phone call from Richard Dick Fuld, chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers, who told you that his stock was being attacked by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, I highly doubt anyone saying that to me. I like people who sell short Berkshire, how can short sellers hurt you?</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Forde said that you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion yuan. Were you interested at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm interested in hearing him out.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>How did you respond to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him, give me your thoughts, first tell me your offer, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could get Henry \"Hank\" Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) to call me about the issue.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. on Friday morning, and he offered some totally substandard endorsements. He probably hoped that I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch was too hard. I think he also realized it was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, I opened Lehman's 10K report that afternoon and it was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we wouldn't invest in it.</p><p>My office still keeps this note.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What do you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances and scenarios that were already happening on Wall Street at the time, and probably happening to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Now we come to \"that weekend\" of September 12, 2008. What you are getting now is not a phone call from Lehman Brothers but a phone call from AIG asking if you would like to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you guys, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point in time, I refused.</p><p>Soon after, they returned to our view. I said at the time, I can't solve this problem. We have to pay about 27 billion dollars. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we will go because of this.</p><p>What was true then was that they passed me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday night telling me they were in crisis.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What do you think it means that they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This means, they know that if we see something, our actions can be very quick. We are probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.</p><p>And for this case, they know that I am very interested in the insurance business. They may be out of business in a few days, so they are also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and was aware of everything that was going on, I think whether I had the ability to step in or not, I would choose to step in.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>When many people look back on this crisis, they still regard the fall of Lehman Brothers that weekend as the crucial moment of the crisis, and debate whether the US government should intervene at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>And the Wall Street Journal both wrote op-eds praising (the U.S. government didn't intervene).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yeah, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street guys fuck off, we've had enough of them\".</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that whatever they want to do, they can do it. This may change somewhat under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...</p><p>(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during the Obama presidency.)</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So you think if the Fed wanted to step in, they could have stepped in at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and saw everything that was going on in the United States, I think I would choose to step in whether I was able to step in or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court may have arrested me as a criminal, but I think from the perspective of national interest, that's what I have to do in that role.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise too much to the public. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink drastically, and various personal problems.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be rescued and the people will be protected.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Fed, and others in need of a bailout.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>HUGE. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then chairman of the New York Fed) and George Bush were arguing fiercely, but the American people wouldn't buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in this whole affair is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, who bought Merrill Lynch. \"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG was bailed out. But then, people began to worry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>When Lehman went bankrupt, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell like dominoes one after another, and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to take into account the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress didn't realize the magnitude of the problem, Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but his ability to realize the seriousness of the problem made me give him a high grade.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, when Goldman comes to you for money, you'll remember it.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think there are reliable people in power in the Treasury Department, reliable people in power in the Federal Reserve, and the president is reliable, except Congress worries me. I think the Golden Meeting is intact as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero of the whole affair is that Ken Lewis (CEO of Bank of America) bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice to buy Merrill Lynch for $30 (Note: In fact, Bank of America paid $30 billion to buy Merrill Lynch for about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At that time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said that we would pay $30 (a share) to buy it, which was a fair price.</p><p>If not, Merrill Lynch could be at only 30 cents on Monday.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>You think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>For the financial system as a whole, this is not a mistake. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after its acquisition, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced its acquisition on Sunday, it might have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>At the Lehman moment, if they decided to take the money to bail out Lehman, they would have to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on their own, and the whole thing would be different.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Looking back at that history, are there some things you felt you should have done but didn't do? What investments are not reached?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I can look back on any week and find something like this.</p><p>If we could have waited an extra 4-5 months at that time, Berkshire could have bought a lot of things cheaper. Shares were much cheaper in March 2009 than they were in October 2008.</p><p>I wrote an op-ed in the New York Times in late October 2008, and I was right in the long run, but it was much cheaper after 4-5 months.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Do you think, this system has taken us so much forward, but still takes us back to the Great Depression, where are these red lines?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not properly handled, it may last longer. But there is always a way out of the crisis, and we have come out of the crisis.</p><p>At one point, the government must step up and step in to solve the crisis. There is only one force in the whole world that can make people reduce leverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they don't do so for some reason, the crisis will come.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>For the public, the new generation, are there any lessons they can learn from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No, no. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was set up.</p><p>In the nineteenth century, there were all kinds of panic in our country.<b>Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's IQ. Even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.</p><p>I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear. At that time, they chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is enormous.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Do you see any connections, implications between the crisis of ten years ago and the politics, governments and institutions of the present?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memory. The same was true in 1929, which took a long time. When they feel extreme fear, something will be left and engraved in their minds.</p><p>They want to know who causes their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>When buying a house, falsely report a little income on the loan application form, think that house prices will continue to rise, so refinance accordingly, etc. Who will be blamed for these things?</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? It's also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>A lot of people do very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always people doing fake things. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market, because you can easily make money from it. You can make a new loan in Bakersfield, California and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, and the value of one security contract is based on another contract.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to look at 300,000 pages of material to understand primary securities and subordinate securities based on it and so on. Moreover, for quite some time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this way.</p><p>Crisis will happen here.</p><p><b>\"Crisis will always come at some point, but I'm not worried about it. Because I manage my behavior properly.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crisis always comes at some point, but I'm not worried about it.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Why?</p><p><b>Buffett because I manage my behavior properly, even if another crisis comes, Berkshire will be very healthy</b>。</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What are you worried about at the moment?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people into the market who completely don't understand it. People are interested in it because of asset appreciation, but they don't really know it themselves.</p><p>When you think your neighbor, who is much dumber than you, has become rich because of rising asset prices, and you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>It's just so contagious.</p><p>This is a part of the capital system that will always be there. But you ask me which class of assets is in this state right now, and I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Are we better positioned to deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is an interesting question. I've never read the 2,000 + pages of the Dodd-Frank Act in its entirety, I've only read the synopsis.</p><p>I have a view, and my view may be wrong. But I (do) think that this bill may hinder the Fed from dealing with the crisis quickly and cooperatively.</p><p>It was a terrible mistake, I would say. We need a Fed with powerful power!</p><p>You may not like it, and it may do something you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion residential market and more than 75 million home buyers, you need a force capable of reducing leverage.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\" on CNBC at that time. I had never used such a metaphor before. I felt that I had never experienced anything like this before.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis at that time was even worse than it was in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow plunged after hitting a high of 381. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones has returned to 250 points. It has not caused so many people to panic on such a widespread scale.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but the scope of Wall Street at that time was far less than it is now, which may be caused by 401K and many other things. Dwelling will reach everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g\">IN咖</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106466264","content_text":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后，2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机：震撼世界的一周》（Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World）。在这部纪录片中，CNBC主播、畅销书《大而不倒》（Too Big to Fail）的作者安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金（Andrew Ross Sorkin）采访了多为彼时深陷漩涡中心的人物，试图向公众展现2008年的美国和世界是如何接近全面经济崩溃、且导致了几代人来最严重的金融危机。纪录片是系列扣人心弦的采访讲述。受访的美国政府最高层官员以及美国各大银行CEO们，他们曾聚集在一起，试图拯救雷曼兄弟免于破产。来自华尔街的CEO杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）、约翰·塞恩（John Thain）和其他人描述了戏剧性的全天候谈判。前美国财政部长汉克·保尔森（Hank Paulson）讲述了他意识到雷曼破产可能会拖垮全球金融体系的绝望时刻。如此规模的金融危机会再次发生吗？索尔金一次又一次地向因这部纪录片再度聚首的人提出这个问题。他们回忆着十年前曾面临的噩梦，曾与世界范围的金融命运呼吸与共。本文的主角是沃伦·巴菲特。2008年银行开始破产时，高管们向巴菲特求助，希望他在紧要关头提供资金支持。后来，他将这一事件称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”。巴菲特在访谈中，对于危机过程中的一些细节，对于监管、机构、市场环环相扣的影响，以及伯克希尔自身的考量，都有谈到，其中关于人性的拿捏，也很有意思。他说，“当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机，因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”这场纪录片，是在危机发生十年之后2018年推出。这样一个恰恰好的时间距离，让巴菲特的回溯与思考，更富有当下的意义。尤其在硅谷银行倒闭事件引发连锁反应，从美国蔓延至大西洋对岸的瑞士信贷，让投资者对欧美银行体系稳定性的担忧蔓延。这时候，回头去看巴菲特对于 2008 年危机事件过程中，思考的方式，对于决策信息赋予的权重，以及所持有的一贯投资原则，对我们都会很有启发。Eason的这篇翻译，很有悦读感，希望大家开卷有益。“这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。”索尔金：回到2008年，从大局来看，你认为是什么导致了2008年的危机。巴菲特：众多的支流汇聚形成了密苏里河。（但我认为最重要的因素在于）人们认为房产会只涨不跌，而住宅市场规模达到了2万亿美元。这是一个非常巨大的资产类别。人们（通过资产证券化）将其当做货币使用，但随后人们发现它并非一路上涨。他们通过房产举债，在这条绳子的从头到尾都对这次事件造成了影响。绳子顶端的人忙着签发一些明知道自己无需持有的地产抵押贷款，他们签发之后可以立刻打包卖给远在挪威的投资者。有些人通过这些贷款进行再融资，房贷人的月供是否太高、是否虚报了自己的收入似乎对他们没有任何影响。为他们提供再融资的人也参与其中。本质上，（参与其中人）对房地产有一个巨大的投机行为。7500万美国购房家庭中有5000万个家庭参与了房贷业务，只有2500万避免受到了冲击。5000万贷款家庭通过杠杆获得房屋，很多人赖以生存，而他们的资产价格出现崩溃。这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。他们相信了（房产价格只涨不跌），当人们相信了某些荒唐的事情时，这样的事情就会发生。索尔金：2008年早期，一些持有次级贷款的对冲基金倒下了，你当时感到担忧吗？你还记得你当时的心情吗？巴菲特：我没有担忧。因为我始终假设（如果）一生都参与到美国经济当中的话，它的价值会随着时间大幅上涨，但同时会伴随着一些磕磕绊绊。我们的经济体系决定了我们会发生一些周期性的疯狂，所以我从不尝试预测市场，我也不会去预测生意（未来的走向），我只是试着去适应所发生的一切。2008年的夏天，我确实接到了某家华尔街头部公司的电话，试图卖给我们几百亿美元（many，many，many billions）的房地美股票。我知道可能出了大问题。“我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其（雷曼）进行投资。”索尔金：我不知道你是否还记得，在贝尔斯登倒下后、房地美和房利美出事前，你接到了迪克·福尔德（Richard Dick Fuld，雷曼兄弟董事长兼CEO）的电话，他告诉你，他的股票被卖空者狙击了。巴菲特：是的，任何人对我这么说，我都高度怀疑。我喜欢卖空伯克希尔的人，卖空者怎么会伤害到你？索尔金：福尔德说你有一个30-50亿的投资机会，你当时感兴趣了吗？巴菲特：我有兴趣听完他的讲话。索尔金：你如何回复他的？巴菲特：我告诉他，把你的想法告诉我，首先告诉我你的报价，然后我会知道我是否有兴趣对此做一些调查。接着，他抛出了一些试探性的想法。事实上，我还记得他问我能不能让汉克·保尔森（Henry“Hank”Merritt Paulson，时任美国财政部长）就此问题给我打电话。周五早上67点，汉克就给我打了电话，他提出了一些完全不合格的背书，他可能希望我会为雷曼提供融资，但他的推销用力过度了。我想他也意识到这样不对。无论如何，那天下午我翻开了雷曼的10K报告，它有250-300页长。我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其进行投资。我的办公室现在仍保存了这份笔记。索尔金：你看到了什么？巴菲特：我只是看到了很多让我担心他们财务状况的东西，以及当时已经在华尔街发生、可能也发生在他们身上的情景。“我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。”索尔金：现在我们来到了2008年9月12日的“那个周末”。你现在接到的不是来自雷曼兄弟的电话而是来自AIG的电话，询问你是否愿意对其投资100亿美元。巴菲特：我告诉他们，不要指望我们，我知道时间对你们来说非常宝贵，所以不要把时间浪费在我们身上。所以，那个时间点上，我拒绝了。不久之后，他们重新回到了我们的视野。我当时说，我无法解决这个问题，我们要支付大概270亿美元，我们有这个财力，但是我不知道我们因此会去往何处。当时的真实情况是，他们周五晚上8点传给了我很多材料，告诉我他们正处于危机之中。索尔金：你觉得，他们打电话给沃伦·巴菲特意味着什么？巴菲特：这意味着，他们知道如果我们看到了某样东西，我们的行动可以非常迅速。我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。并且针对这个案例，他们知道我对保险业务很感兴趣。他们可能在几天之内就要倒闭，因此他们也非常绝望。“如果我是当时的美联储主席并且意识到发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我会选择介入。”索尔金：很多人回顾这场危机时仍然将那个周末雷曼兄弟的倒下视作危机的关键时刻，并且争论那个时刻美国政府是否应该介入。第二天早上，纽约时报和华尔街日报都写了专栏文章赞扬（美国政府没有介入）。巴菲特：是的，当时所有人都想，“让这些华尔街的滚蛋，我们受够了他们”。很久以前，美联储主席说，无论他们想做什么，他们都可以这么去做。在《多德-弗兰克法案》下，这点可能发生一定的改变，但是……（注：《多德-弗兰克法案》全名是多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案，于2010年7月21日通过的美国联邦法律。通常被认为是奥巴马总统任期内颁布的最重要的法案之一。）索尔金：所以你认为，如果美联储想要介入，他们当时可以介入。巴菲特：如果我是当时的美联储主席并且看到了美国发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我都会选择介入。最高法院可能把我当作罪犯逮捕，但我认为从国家利益的角度来看，那是我在身处那个角色必须做的。索尔金：所以你认为美联储犯了错？巴菲特：我不知道。因为，他们必须要向公众承诺的太多了。很多人面临失去自己的住宅、看到自己的资产大幅缩水，以及各种个人问题。然而，你要承诺AIG的所有员工都会得到救助、民众也会得到保障，这么做非常困难。索尔金：当时，汉克、美联储和其他需要救助的人身上的政治压力有多大。巴菲特：巨大。伯南克（时任美联储主席）、汉克·保尔森、蒂姆·盖特纳（Tim Geithner，时任纽约联储主席）以及乔治·布什当时正在激烈争论，但美国民众不会买账的。“我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是美国银行CEO肯·刘易斯，他买下了美林。”索尔金：雷曼兄弟破产了，美国银行收购了美林，AIG得到了救助。但之后，人们又开始担忧通用电气、高盛、摩根斯坦利的未来。巴菲特：当雷曼破产之后，商业票据的最大持有者是货币市场基金，这些事情像（多米诺骨牌一样）一个接一个倒下，而汉克和伯南克做的任何事情必须考虑来自国会的反应。国会没有意识到问题的严重性，布什认识到了。我没有投票给他，但是他能意识到问题的严重性让我给他打很高的分。索尔金：那周的晚些时候，我接到了来自高盛的电话，你记得那通电话吗？巴菲特：我记得那通电话。哈哈，当高盛找你要钱，你会记得的。索尔金：你当时的想法是什么？巴菲特：我认为财政部有可靠的人在掌权、美联储有可靠的人掌权、总统也是可靠的，只不过国会让我担忧。我认为高盛会完好无损，只要市场没有被完全关闭。我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是肯·刘易斯（美国银行CEO）在周一买下了美林银行。我想他得到了一些意见以30美元的价格买下美林（注：实际上，美国银行以每股约29美元的价格，斥资300亿美元买下美林）。他周六做出了决定，周日宣布收购。当时，没有任何知道美林银行到底值多少钱，但是他说我们会支付30美元（一股）的价格买下它，这是个公正的价格。（如果不这么做，）美林周一（的股价）可能只有3毛钱。索尔金：你认为这是个大错误？巴菲特：对于整个金融系统来说，这不是错误。美林在被收购之后也表现得非常好，但在那个时点，如果美国银行没有在周日宣布收购，它可能是另一个雷曼兄弟。在雷曼时刻，如果他们决定拿钱为雷曼纾困，他们就不得不告诉美林依靠自己生存下去，整个事情就会变得不一样。“信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”索尔金：回溯那段历史，你是否有一些觉得自己应该做但没做的事？哪些没有达成的投资？巴菲特：我可以回顾任何一周，找到这样的事情。如果当时，我们可以多等待4-5个月的话，伯克希尔能以更便宜的价格买入很多东西。2009年3月的股价比2008年10月便宜得多。2008年10月下旬，我在纽约时报写了专栏文章，长期来看我是对的，但是4-5个月之后的价格要便宜得多。索尔金：你会不会思考，这个系统带我们前进了这么多，但仍然会让我们回到大萧条时期，这些红线在哪里？巴菲特：如果危机没有被妥善处理，可能会持续更长时间。但是总能走出危机，我们已经走出了危机。在某一个时刻，政府必须站出来介入解决危机。整个世界只有一种力量可以让人们降杠杆，只有一种力量（指政府部门）。如果他们由于某些原因没有这么去做，危机就会到来。索尔金：对于公众、新一代人来说，他们是否可以从这场危机中学到什么教训？巴菲特：没有。因为人们总会恐慌，这也是设立美联储的原因。19世纪时，我们国家有过各种各样的恐慌。当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。而且，这不受人们智商的影响、就算是有博士学历，害怕就是害怕了。我知道一些人，你听到他们的名字可能会惊讶，在那个时候，他们选择只相信黄金、不相信其他任何事物。害怕的力量是巨大的。索尔金：你认为十年前的危机与现在的政治、政府和机构之间有什么联系、影响吗？巴菲特：是的，人们的长期记忆。1929年时也是这样，这（化解）需要很长时间。当他们感受到了极端的恐惧，有些东西会留下、刻在他们的脑中。他们想知道谁造成了他们的恐惧。他们确实也不应该责怪自己。我的意思是，不应该要求每个人都是金融专家。在买房时在贷款申请表上虚报一点收入，认为房价会继续上涨所以依此进行再融资等等，谁会因为这些事儿受到责怪。索尔金：所以，是否有人应该为这场危机负责呢？这也是个政治问题。巴菲特：很多人做了非常愚蠢的事情，但我不认为有人应该（为此负责）。我是说，始终有一些人在做一些虚假的事情。一定程度上，这些人被房地产市场所吸引，因为你可以从中很容易赚到钱，你可以在加州贝克斯菲尔德新发贷款然后轻易地卖到挪威。然后，它变成了一连串合约，一个证券合约的价值要基于另一个合约。我曾看过一份证券化产品，我不得不去看长达30万页的材料去理解初级证券和基于它的次级证券等等。而且，在相当一段时间，大家都安然无恙，所以大家都习惯了这种方式。危机会在此发生的。“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”索尔金：你担心另一场危机的到来吗？巴菲特：危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。索尔金：为什么？巴菲特因为我妥善地管好自己的行为，就算另一场危机到来，伯克希尔也会非常健康。索尔金：当下，你会担忧什么事情？巴菲特：资产价格上涨吸引了完全不理解它的人进入市场。人们因为资产增值而对它感兴趣，但并不是自己真正了解它。当你认为比你笨很多的邻居因资产价格上涨而变得富有，而你没有变富，你的配偶就会问你：你就不能也弄明白（然后赚大钱）吗？这实在是太具传染性了。这是资本系统永远会存在的一部分。但你问我现在哪一类资产正处于这种状态，我还没有观察到。索尔金：我们现在能更好地应对另一场危机吗？巴菲特：这是一个有趣的问题。我从没有完整读过2000多页的《多德-弗兰克法案》，我只读了概要。我有一个种观点，我的这种观点可能是错误的。但是我（确实）认为，这份法案可能阻碍了美联储快速、与多方合作地（处理危机）。我会说，这是一个可怕的错误。我们需要一个拥有强权的美联储！你可能不喜欢它，它可能做一些你不喜欢的事情，但是这个拥有10万亿住宅市场、7500多万购房家庭的国家，你需要一个有能力降杠杆的力量。索尔金：在那一周，这些人不断地打电话给你，在当时你如何评估的？巴菲特：我当时确实在CNBC将之称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”，我之前从没用过这样的比喻。我感受到我从没经历过类似的事件。而且，从即时的恐慌程度来讲，当时的危机甚至比1929年更糟。1929年9月29日，道琼斯指数触及高点381点后暴跌。我于1930年8月出生，道琼斯已经回到了250点，它没有让这么多人陷于如此大范围的恐慌。它打击了华尔街，但那时的华尔街能影响到的范围远不及现在，这可能是由于401K和其他很多事情造成的。住宅会触及到所有人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650394069,"gmtCreate":1678879713453,"gmtModify":1678879713453,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544220031107044","idStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;","listText":"[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;","text":"[爱心] [爱心] [爱心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650394069","repostId":"2319738701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319738701","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678754319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319738701?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 08:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Buffett sold right again? The wave of price cuts in the car circle is sudden, the latest interpretation of fund managers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319738701","media":"券商中国","summary":"近日声势浩大的车企降价潮，传导至股票市场引发汽车股巨震，3月10日当天，A、H股市场汽车股纷纷大跌，多股日内跌超5%。　　而若将时间线拉长来看，尽管年初出现反弹，但近半年汽车股整体呈震荡下跌趋势，汽车ETF下跌超20%。半年前开始的股神巴菲特对龙头股的减持，能否看成多米诺骨牌的第一张，还有待商榷，但目前投资界对于新能源车企贝塔行情的远去似乎已成共识。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Buy where no one cares, and sell when there is a lot of people. Recently, the massive wave of price cuts by auto companies has been transmitted to the stock market and caused a huge shock in auto stocks. On March 10, auto stocks in the A and H-share markets fell sharply, and many stocks fell by more than 5% within the day.</p><p>If we look at the timeline longer, despite the rebound at the beginning of the year, auto stocks have shown a volatile downward trend as a whole in the past six months, and auto ETFs have fallen by more than 20%. Whether Warren Buffett's reduction of leading stocks, which started six months ago, can be regarded as the first domino remains to be discussed, but at present, the investment community seems to have reached a consensus on the departure of the beta market of new energy vehicle companies.</p><p><b>Contradictions between production and sales trigger a wave of price cuts by car companies</b></p><p>\"The vehicle link is actually under great pressure. The competition among the original players is already very fierce, and new brands with Internet genes continue to enter. It is difficult to judge who can come out, and profit growth cannot be guaranteed for a long time.\" In August last year, a fund manager in South China once expressed his concerns to reporters. He said that after subsidies are withdrawn in 2023, car companies may fall into a price war.</p><p>In January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Taking the lead in launching the first shot of the electric vehicle price war, the starting prices of the main models Model 3 and Model Y dropped to 229,900 and 259,900 respectively, with the highest drop of 48,000. Subsequently, new car-making forces such as Wenjie, XPeng, Leapmotor, and Lantu successively adjusted their prices.</p><p>Recently, the maximum subsidy has reached 90,000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600006\">Dongfeng Motor</a>It has set off a huge wave of price cuts. According to incomplete statistics, so far, there have been Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Buick,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>More than 30 automobile brands, including others, participated in it through manufacturer subsidies or dealer price reductions. The most obvious feature is that most of them are fuel vehicle brands.</p><p>Regarding the reasons for the \"involution\" of prices among automobile manufacturers, Fan Ke, manager of Hony Yuanfang Automobile Industry Upgrading Fund, believes that in the past three years, the sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic market have increased by leaps and bounds, while the total volume has not increased much. Substitution, joint venture fuel vehicle companies are under increasing pressure, and vigorous promotions will begin in the second half of 2022. After Tesla launched a price war in 2023, the pressure on fuel vehicles will further intensify. According to observations, the sales pressure of fuel vehicles from January to February this year was very high, with a year-on-year decline of more than 30%.</p><p>In addition, the National VI B regulations on passenger car emissions will be implemented in July 2023, and the market is also worried about the inventory clearance situation similar to that in the second quarter of 2020. However, Fan Ke believes that this situation will most likely not happen. In the field of passenger cars, the cost difference between the complete National VI B standard and the National VI A. Most car companies have chosen to develop National VI B products in one step, so the actual impact is very limited.</p><p>But I have to admit that \"destocking\" is a key issue facing many car companies. Not only fuel vehicles, but also new energy vehicles have a surplus. Shi Cheng of UBS Fund of SDIC believes that basically most links in the industrial chain already have production capacity greater than sales. The follow-up may enter the time of price war, and the fierce competition among electric vehicles, power batteries and parts will accelerate the process of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy.</p><p>\"Enterprises have entered the range of cruel price wars, which is relatively unfavorable for those enterprises that are not competitive, profitable enough, not good enough technology, or not large enough scale effect.\" Cathay CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF Fund manager Xu Chengcheng believes that in such a competitive environment, the higher the market share and the stronger the vertical integration capability, car companies are actually dominant. For those companies that rely on suppliers or upstream components, the pressure is relatively high.</p><p>But everything has its two sides. Xu Chengcheng further stated that under the current situation of relatively weak sales expectations, price cuts can stimulate consumption very well. At the same time, they can also encourage companies to gain more market share and further enhance their product capabilities, such as using more and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving related technology, parts and products and much more. After all, as a growth industry, the automobile products become stronger and stronger, and more and more consumers will pay the bill.</p><p><b>Falling into correction after high valuations</b></p><p>\"In the past, the market was mainly due to expectations of intelligence and new energy, which gave vehicle companies relatively high valuations.\" In the view of the aforementioned South China fund manager, after the valuations of vehicle companies that met the above expectations were raised, the market Differences began to increase, and stock prices were more likely to fluctuate due to disturbances in market news. This is one of the reasons for the recent sharp fluctuations in stock prices of related car companies.</p><p>In fact, investment differences in vehicle companies began in the second half of last year, and one of the landmark events was Buffett's reduction of leading stocks. In June last year, BYD, the leading car company with the highest expectations for intelligence and new energy, and was at the forefront of its vehicle and battery business, once had a market value of one trillion yuan. At that time, there were market voices optimistic that BYD's market value would continue to reach 1.5 trillion yuan. However, Buffett, the stock god who is regarded as the \"wind vane\" of the investment community, began to reduce his holdings of BYD Hong Kong stocks that he has held for 14 years.</p><p>Looking back, in 2008, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway bought 225 million BYD Hong Kong shares at a price of HK $8 per share, and held them for 14 years. In June 2022, BYD Hong Kong shares once rose to HK $333 per share, compared with Buffett's buying price The increase exceeded 40 times. Two months later, in August 2022, Buffett began to reduce his holdings for the first time. As of the latest disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 9, Berkshire Hathaway holds approximately 130 million shares in BYD's Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>In other words, in about half a year, Buffett has reduced his holdings by about 95 million shares, and the number of positions has been reduced by more than 40%. Observing the stock price trend of BYD's Hong Kong stocks in the past six months, it only rebounded at the beginning of this year, and the overall trend remained volatile and downward. It fell by more than 8% on March 10, and the latest closing price was HK $201.2 per share, which has been nearly 40% lower than the historical high.</p><p>It should also be noted that in terms of A-shares, although BYD continued to rise in the number of shares held by Public Offering of Fund in the fourth quarter of last year, it fell out of the top ten holdings of Public Offering of Fund. Wind data statistics show that as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, BYD was heavily held by 631 funds with 132.0245 million shares, accounting for 11.33% of the outstanding shares, and a total of 716,800 shares were increased in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>The beta of the new energy vehicle industry may have peaked</b></p><p>Based on the present situation, we need to be more cautious in investing in new energy vehicles. In the eyes of some fund managers, the industry beta of new energy vehicles may have peaked.</p><p>\"At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 30%. What does this mean?\" A fund manager in Beijing said that on the one hand, it is an affirmation of the high growth of the industry in the past; On the other hand, it is a prompt signal that the pressure on the industry will increase in the future. The new energy vehicle industry has entered a competitive market. In this new market stage, as the total social output of products increases and prices drop, the profit growth rate of leading companies will also be challenged.</p><p>\"New energy vehicles will continue to be very prosperous in the future, but there is a high probability that there will be no such state as explosive growth in the past and money in all segments.\" Xu Chengcheng believes that there are two main lines of investment in new energy vehicles, one is electrification, and the other is intelligence. Among them, in the track of electrification (or the increase of electrification rate), the current pressure is still relatively high. Electrification is essentially a process of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, mainly reducing costs and increasing efficiency in electric and battery areas. Now, due to the relatively high price of raw materials, the profitability of related companies on the path of electrification is under great pressure. On the intelligent track, Xu Chengcheng feels more promising for growth. When the products are made better and better, and the experience of consumers and drivers is better and better, more people will naturally choose such products.</p><p>Gan Chuanqi, director of the Growth Investment Department of Zhongrong Fund, also said that entering the era of new energy vehicles, electrification and intelligence are the two major trends in China's automobile industry. Chinese brands not only have first-mover advantages in electrification and intelligence, but also have the advantages of low cost and quick response. However, growth not only represents growth space and market prospects, but also means potential risks and more uncertainties. We need to pay attention to growth with quality and barriers.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"cszg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett sold right again? The wave of price cuts in the car circle is sudden, the latest interpretation of fund managers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett sold right again? The wave of price cuts in the car circle is sudden, the latest interpretation of fund managers\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">券商中国</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-14 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Buy where no one cares, and sell when there is a lot of people. Recently, the massive wave of price cuts by auto companies has been transmitted to the stock market and caused a huge shock in auto stocks. On March 10, auto stocks in the A and H-share markets fell sharply, and many stocks fell by more than 5% within the day.</p><p>If we look at the timeline longer, despite the rebound at the beginning of the year, auto stocks have shown a volatile downward trend as a whole in the past six months, and auto ETFs have fallen by more than 20%. Whether Warren Buffett's reduction of leading stocks, which started six months ago, can be regarded as the first domino remains to be discussed, but at present, the investment community seems to have reached a consensus on the departure of the beta market of new energy vehicle companies.</p><p><b>Contradictions between production and sales trigger a wave of price cuts by car companies</b></p><p>\"The vehicle link is actually under great pressure. The competition among the original players is already very fierce, and new brands with Internet genes continue to enter. It is difficult to judge who can come out, and profit growth cannot be guaranteed for a long time.\" In August last year, a fund manager in South China once expressed his concerns to reporters. He said that after subsidies are withdrawn in 2023, car companies may fall into a price war.</p><p>In January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Taking the lead in launching the first shot of the electric vehicle price war, the starting prices of the main models Model 3 and Model Y dropped to 229,900 and 259,900 respectively, with the highest drop of 48,000. Subsequently, new car-making forces such as Wenjie, XPeng, Leapmotor, and Lantu successively adjusted their prices.</p><p>Recently, the maximum subsidy has reached 90,000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600006\">Dongfeng Motor</a>It has set off a huge wave of price cuts. According to incomplete statistics, so far, there have been Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Buick,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>More than 30 automobile brands, including others, participated in it through manufacturer subsidies or dealer price reductions. The most obvious feature is that most of them are fuel vehicle brands.</p><p>Regarding the reasons for the \"involution\" of prices among automobile manufacturers, Fan Ke, manager of Hony Yuanfang Automobile Industry Upgrading Fund, believes that in the past three years, the sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic market have increased by leaps and bounds, while the total volume has not increased much. Substitution, joint venture fuel vehicle companies are under increasing pressure, and vigorous promotions will begin in the second half of 2022. After Tesla launched a price war in 2023, the pressure on fuel vehicles will further intensify. According to observations, the sales pressure of fuel vehicles from January to February this year was very high, with a year-on-year decline of more than 30%.</p><p>In addition, the National VI B regulations on passenger car emissions will be implemented in July 2023, and the market is also worried about the inventory clearance situation similar to that in the second quarter of 2020. However, Fan Ke believes that this situation will most likely not happen. In the field of passenger cars, the cost difference between the complete National VI B standard and the National VI A. Most car companies have chosen to develop National VI B products in one step, so the actual impact is very limited.</p><p>But I have to admit that \"destocking\" is a key issue facing many car companies. Not only fuel vehicles, but also new energy vehicles have a surplus. Shi Cheng of UBS Fund of SDIC believes that basically most links in the industrial chain already have production capacity greater than sales. The follow-up may enter the time of price war, and the fierce competition among electric vehicles, power batteries and parts will accelerate the process of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy.</p><p>\"Enterprises have entered the range of cruel price wars, which is relatively unfavorable for those enterprises that are not competitive, profitable enough, not good enough technology, or not large enough scale effect.\" Cathay CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF Fund manager Xu Chengcheng believes that in such a competitive environment, the higher the market share and the stronger the vertical integration capability, car companies are actually dominant. For those companies that rely on suppliers or upstream components, the pressure is relatively high.</p><p>But everything has its two sides. Xu Chengcheng further stated that under the current situation of relatively weak sales expectations, price cuts can stimulate consumption very well. At the same time, they can also encourage companies to gain more market share and further enhance their product capabilities, such as using more and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving related technology, parts and products and much more. After all, as a growth industry, the automobile products become stronger and stronger, and more and more consumers will pay the bill.</p><p><b>Falling into correction after high valuations</b></p><p>\"In the past, the market was mainly due to expectations of intelligence and new energy, which gave vehicle companies relatively high valuations.\" In the view of the aforementioned South China fund manager, after the valuations of vehicle companies that met the above expectations were raised, the market Differences began to increase, and stock prices were more likely to fluctuate due to disturbances in market news. This is one of the reasons for the recent sharp fluctuations in stock prices of related car companies.</p><p>In fact, investment differences in vehicle companies began in the second half of last year, and one of the landmark events was Buffett's reduction of leading stocks. In June last year, BYD, the leading car company with the highest expectations for intelligence and new energy, and was at the forefront of its vehicle and battery business, once had a market value of one trillion yuan. At that time, there were market voices optimistic that BYD's market value would continue to reach 1.5 trillion yuan. However, Buffett, the stock god who is regarded as the \"wind vane\" of the investment community, began to reduce his holdings of BYD Hong Kong stocks that he has held for 14 years.</p><p>Looking back, in 2008, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway bought 225 million BYD Hong Kong shares at a price of HK $8 per share, and held them for 14 years. In June 2022, BYD Hong Kong shares once rose to HK $333 per share, compared with Buffett's buying price The increase exceeded 40 times. Two months later, in August 2022, Buffett began to reduce his holdings for the first time. As of the latest disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 9, Berkshire Hathaway holds approximately 130 million shares in BYD's Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>In other words, in about half a year, Buffett has reduced his holdings by about 95 million shares, and the number of positions has been reduced by more than 40%. Observing the stock price trend of BYD's Hong Kong stocks in the past six months, it only rebounded at the beginning of this year, and the overall trend remained volatile and downward. It fell by more than 8% on March 10, and the latest closing price was HK $201.2 per share, which has been nearly 40% lower than the historical high.</p><p>It should also be noted that in terms of A-shares, although BYD continued to rise in the number of shares held by Public Offering of Fund in the fourth quarter of last year, it fell out of the top ten holdings of Public Offering of Fund. Wind data statistics show that as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, BYD was heavily held by 631 funds with 132.0245 million shares, accounting for 11.33% of the outstanding shares, and a total of 716,800 shares were increased in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>The beta of the new energy vehicle industry may have peaked</b></p><p>Based on the present situation, we need to be more cautious in investing in new energy vehicles. In the eyes of some fund managers, the industry beta of new energy vehicles may have peaked.</p><p>\"At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 30%. What does this mean?\" A fund manager in Beijing said that on the one hand, it is an affirmation of the high growth of the industry in the past; On the other hand, it is a prompt signal that the pressure on the industry will increase in the future. The new energy vehicle industry has entered a competitive market. In this new market stage, as the total social output of products increases and prices drop, the profit growth rate of leading companies will also be challenged.</p><p>\"New energy vehicles will continue to be very prosperous in the future, but there is a high probability that there will be no such state as explosive growth in the past and money in all segments.\" Xu Chengcheng believes that there are two main lines of investment in new energy vehicles, one is electrification, and the other is intelligence. Among them, in the track of electrification (or the increase of electrification rate), the current pressure is still relatively high. Electrification is essentially a process of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, mainly reducing costs and increasing efficiency in electric and battery areas. Now, due to the relatively high price of raw materials, the profitability of related companies on the path of electrification is under great pressure. On the intelligent track, Xu Chengcheng feels more promising for growth. When the products are made better and better, and the experience of consumers and drivers is better and better, more people will naturally choose such products.</p><p>Gan Chuanqi, director of the Growth Investment Department of Zhongrong Fund, also said that entering the era of new energy vehicles, electrification and intelligence are the two major trends in China's automobile industry. Chinese brands not only have first-mover advantages in electrification and intelligence, but also have the advantages of low cost and quick response. However, growth not only represents growth space and market prospects, but also means potential risks and more uncertainties. We need to pay attention to growth with quality and barriers.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2023-03-13/doc-imyksqvf8808269.shtml\">券商中国</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/358f056a9bb38ecb12a7807cc060ce83","relate_stocks":{"01211":"比亚迪股份","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services 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Y起售价分别降至22.99万和25.99万，最高降幅达4.8万。随后，问界、小鹏、零跑、岚图等造车新势力相继调整售价。近日，最高补贴达9万的东风汽车更是掀起了一场声势浩大的降价潮，据不完全统计，截至目前已有包括奔驰、宝马、奥迪、别克、比亚迪等在内的超30个汽车品牌通过厂家补贴或经销商降价等方式参与其中，其中最为明显的特征就是燃油车品牌居多。关于此次汽车厂商间价格“内卷”的原因，弘毅远方汽车产业升级基金经理樊可认为，近三年来，国内市场新能源车销量突飞猛进，同时总量并没有太多增长，一直是存量替代，合资燃油车企压力越来越大，从2022年下半年就开始大力促销，2023年特斯拉掀起价格战之后燃油车压力进一步加剧。据观察，燃油车在今年1-2月销售压力非常大，同比下跌超30%。此外，乘用车排放国六B法规将于2023年7月开始执行，市场也担心会出现类似2020年二季度的清库存情况。不过，樊可认为，这种情况大概率不会发生。乘用车领域，完整的国六B标准，与国六A成本差异并不大，绝大部分车企都选择了一步到位研发国六B产品，所以实际影响非常有限。但不得不承认，“去库存”是摆在众多车企面前的关键课题。不仅燃油车，目前新能源汽车也已经出现了过剩。国投瑞银基金施成认为，基本上产业链上大部分环节，都已经是产能大于销量。后续可能将会进入价格战的时间，而电动汽车、动力电池和零部件激烈竞争，会加速新能源替代燃油车的过程。“企业进入残酷价格战的区间，这对于那些竞争力不强、盈利能力不够强、技术不够好，或者说规模化效应不够大的企业来说是比较不利的。”国泰中证新能源汽车ETF基金经理徐成城认为，在这样的竞争环境之下，市占率越高，垂直一体化能力越强的车企其实才是占优的。对于那些依赖供应商，或者是依赖上游零部件的企业，压力是比较大的。但任何事情都有其双面性。徐成城进一步表示，在目前销售预期比较疲弱的情况下，降价可以很好的刺激消费，与此同时，还能激励企业为了获得更多市场份额，从而进一步提升自身产品力，比如使用更多与智能驾驶相关的技术、零件和产品等等。毕竟汽车作为成长性行业，产品越来越强，就会有越来越多的消费者买单。估值高企后陷入调整“之前市场主要是因为智能化、新能源化的预期，给了整车企业比较高的估值。”在前述华南基金经理看来，符合上述预期的整车企业估值被拔高后，市场分歧开始加大，股价更易因市场消息的扰动加剧波动，这就是近期相关车企股价大幅波动的原因之一。事实上，对于整车企业的投资分歧从去年下半年就开始了，其中一个颇具标志性的事件就是巴菲特对龙头股的减持。去年6月，智能化、新能源化预期最高，整车和电池业务都走在前列的车企龙头比亚迪，市值一度冲向万亿，彼时有市场声音看好比亚迪市值继续冲至1.5万亿。然而，被视作投资界“风向标”的股神巴菲特却开始减持已持仓14年的比亚迪港股。回溯来看，2008年，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦以8港元/股的价格买入了2.25亿股比亚迪港股，此后持有时间长达14年，2022年6月，比亚迪港股一度上涨至333港元/股，相较巴菲特的买入价涨幅超40倍。两个月后，2022年8月，巴菲特开始首度减持。截至港交所在2月9日的最新一次披露，伯克希尔哈撒韦对比亚迪港股的持股数量约为1.3亿股。也就是说，半年左右时间，巴菲特累计减持约9500万股，持仓数量已降低超四成。而观察这半年来比亚迪港股的股价走势，仅在今年年初出现回弹，整体仍保持震荡下行，3月10日下跌超8%，最新报收201.2港元/股，较历史高点已回调近四成。同样需要注意的是，A股方面，尽管比亚迪在去年四季度遭公募基金重仓持股数量继续攀升，但却跌出公募基金十大重仓股之外。Wind数据统计显示，截至2022年四季度末，比亚迪被631只基金重仓持有13202.45万股，持股占流通股比例达11.33%，四季度被累计加仓71.68万股。新能源车行业贝塔或已见顶立足当下，对于新能源车的投资，需要更加慎重。在部分基金经理看来，新能源车的行业贝塔或已见顶。“目前国内新能源车的渗透率已经达到了30%，这意味着什么？”北京一位基金经理表示，一方面，是对行业过去高增长的肯定；另一方面，是行业未来压力将增大的提示信号。新能源车行业已经步入竞争型市场，在这个新的市场阶段，随着产品社会总产量的提高、价格的下探，龙头公司的利润增速也会受到挑战。“新能源汽车未来还会很景气，但是像过去呈爆发式增长、所有细分领域都赚钱的这种状态大概率应该不会有了。”徐成城认为，新能源车投资主线有两条，一个是电动化，另一个就是智能化。其中，在电动化（或者电动化率提升）这条赛道，目前面临的压力还比较大。电动化本质上就是降本增效的过程，主要是在电动、电池这一块降本增效。现在因为原料价格比较高，使得电动化这一条路径上相关企业的盈利能力大幅承压。而在智能化的赛道上，徐成城觉得更有成长性。把产品做得越来越好，让消费者、驾驶者的体验越来越好的情况下，自然而然会有更多的人选择这样的产品。中融基金成长投资部总监甘传琦也表示，进入新能源车时代，电动化和智能化是中国汽车行业的两大趋势。中国品牌不仅在电动化智能化方面具有先发优势，而且具有低成本、快速响应优势。不过，成长性不仅代表成长空间和市场前景，也意味着潜在风险和更多的不确定性，需要关注有质量、有壁垒的成长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":1,"BYDDY":0.9,"BRK.A":1,"01211":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650395892,"gmtCreate":1678879400819,"gmtModify":1678879400819,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544220031107044","idStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[比心]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;","listText":"[比心]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;","text":"[比心] 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[比心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650395892","repostId":"627213766","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":627213766,"gmtCreate":1678345260000,"gmtModify":1678347399219,"author":{"id":"3524105276229621","authorId":"3524105276229621","name":"聪明投资人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a73a0ae6395ff58b664544b077c69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3524105276229621","idStr":"3524105276229621"},"themes":[],"title":"巴菲特加倉西方石油到22.2%！兩位公募基金經理解讀最新股東信中的價值投資祕笈","htmlText":"在去年連續加註西方石油之後，巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件，巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油，在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股，持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格，價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃，並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量，他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時，投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想，在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上，身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅？！然而，並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量，他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭，其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信，展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣！》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信，他們從一個專業投資者的角度，解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文，聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年，他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣，每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信，這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時，正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期，而2020年來信時，也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心，我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信，但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題，以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式，1）100%&nbsp;控股，任命管理層，可以接受經營的失敗，但對個人不當行爲零容忍；2）投資公開交易","listText":"在去年連續加註西方石油之後，巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件，巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油，在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股，持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格，價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃，並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量，他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時，投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想，在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上，身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅？！然而，並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量，他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭，其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信，展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣！》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信，他們從一個專業投資者的角度，解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文，聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年，他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣，每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信，這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時，正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期，而2020年來信時，也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心，我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信，但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題，以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式，1）100%&nbsp;控股，任命管理層，可以接受經營的失敗，但對個人不當行爲零容忍；2）投資公開交易","text":"在去年連續加註西方石油之後，巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件，巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油，在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股，持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格，價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃，並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量，他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時，投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想，在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上，身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅？！然而，並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量，他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭，其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信，展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣！》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信，他們從一個專業投資者的角度，解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文，聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年，他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣，每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信，這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時，正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期，而2020年來信時，也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心，我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信，但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題，以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式，1）100% 控股，任命管理層，可以接受經營的失敗，但對個人不當行爲零容忍；2）投資公開交易","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9554f5da6f4a85a39e4de3d7e0c39a","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ba5642bc044889a6a80a005be93f1e","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11cf8bb6cfdf4ac6934847efb83b6efb","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627213766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650001473,"gmtCreate":1678721278293,"gmtModify":1678721278293,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544220031107044","idStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650001473","repostId":"2319208799","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319208799","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678681611,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319208799?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-13 12:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became \"blood debt\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319208799","media":"观察者网","summary":"3月10日，硅谷银行由美国存款保险公司正式接管，股票停牌。怪不得硅谷被接管前，挤提规模达400多亿美元。与硅谷银行破产有关的任何损失都不会由纳税人承担。其实，硅谷的破产恰恰是美联储无节操放水、直升机撒钱导致美债收益率暴跌、储蓄户存款暴涨造成的。而这个周末的硅谷银行，资产规模2200亿美元，还持有大量的、流动性很好的美债。","content":"<p><html><body><article>I don't know why, but banks in the United States always fail on weekends? Look at Bear Stearns and Lehman in 2008, both of which collapsed over the weekend, and then American regulators,<span>Federal Reserve</span>And the U.S. Treasury. This time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>It's no exception.</p><p>On March 10, Silicon Valley Bank was officially taken over by the American Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the stock was suspended. Silicon Valley Bank was once the fastest growing bank in deposits in the United States. At one time, the annual growth of deposits soared from US $60 billion to US $120 billion, far surpassing Morgan, the largest bank in the United States.</p><p>After the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed used<span>Monetary policy</span>In the fight against the epidemic, household savings deposits once reached about US $1 trillion, and broad money M2 increased by more than 25%. Many people are bullish on U.S. stocks, believing that these huge amounts of idle cash will one day enter the market and become stocks. Obviously, many people forget the principle of double-entry accounting-there must be a loan.</p><p>For a bank like Silicon Valley, with more than 100 billion dollars of deposits, the ledger is full of the largest and bluest venture capital companies and technology upstarts in Silicon Valley, including the Founder's Fund, the godfather of Silicon Valley Peter Thiel. How should it conduct liquidity management? Since the Fed's interest rate is zero, buy the safest in the world<span>Assets</span>-Short-term U.S. debt. You can also eat some interest and earn a little money.</p><p>However, the good times didn't last long. By the end of 2021, U.S. inflation began to soar sharply, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to be out of control, and short-term U.S. bond yields began to rise sharply at the same time, resulting in the plunge in U.S. bonds in 2022, which was the highest in history in 1800 and more than 200 years. Suddenly, the world's safest asset has become the eye of the storm (pictured).</p><p>Picture from the author</p><p>At this moment, the U.S. bond holdings in Silicon Valley Bank's books are beginning to lose money. Even if it hasn't been sold yet, the bookkeeping still needs to be<span>Market price</span>To calculate mark to market. Silicon Valley's market-to-market losses have exceeded its total equity. The rating company did not delay for a moment and began to prepare to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>But deposit interest rates are still close to zero, and the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>I didn't want to be harvested helplessly, so I started to withdraw my bank deposits to buy money funds with a yield close to 4% now. If Silicon Valley Bank raises interest on deposits significantly, it will have less spread income and extra liquidity to pay. At this time, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma.</p><p>Silicon Valley Investment Banks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Seeing this commission opportunity, he began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell part of its U.S. debt portfolio and sell $2.25 billion in stocks to replenish capital. This idea is really rancid: the data forced to disclose during the financing roadshow showed that customers in Silicon Valley were withdrawing money on a large scale, and deposits in Silicon Valley were lost in large quantities. If it weren't for the roadshow disclosure, the market wouldn't have known the details. Now the market thinks that Silicon Valley is about to go bankrupt, and it is accelerating the squeeze, and then there is the scene at the beginning of this article. Since Silicon Valley is a large customer with deposits far exceeding US $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not suitable for the protection clause of the US deposit insurance ceiling of US $250,000.</p><p>Because many other local banks are using similar methods for cash management, they are bound to face the same risks today when the short-term yield of U.S. bonds soars. This also explains why markets are wishful thinking that the Fed will stop rate hike soon. Obviously, the ass determines their heads.</p><p>Of course, now the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must consider the impact on the US banking industry. Uncle Bao has always said recently that we should \"consider the data comprehensively the totality of data \". Last night, the market hid on the short end of U.S. bonds out of safe haven needs, and yields began to fall sharply.</p><p>Many people continue to disagree with the historic inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk. It is impossible to sustain this form. And its twist will surely shatter the sky and the earth. Although the long-term risk is stable, the short-term risk is high. And we need to live past the short term to see the long term.</p><p>\"But this long-term prediction is of no help to the present. In the long run, we are dead early. The job of economists is too easy and useless. When the storm comes, economists can only tell us that the storm will always pass, and then the sea will be calm again.\" -Keynes</p><p><strong>The second Lehman?</strong></p><p>Now, the worry for global markets is: Will Silicon Valley Bank be relieved? Many brick professionals rushed to tell each other that if American supervision did not take action, Silicon Valley would become the second Lehman and bring down the entire American financial system. There is also a request for the Federal Reserve to reopen the gate to print money, although if it is printed again, the US dollar will soon become a ghost coin.</p><p>Before Monday, the market needs to see three rescue measures: 1) Small depositors below $250,000 will be fully paid; 2) Depositors above the deposit insurance ceiling of US $250,000 receive partial reimbursement, and are guaranteed that in the future, depending on the sale and realization of Silicon Valley Bank's assets, these large depositors can receive most of the reimbursement (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four largest banks in the United States take over Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>If these measures can be introduced, or at least most of them can be promised, and a path to defuse Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy can be pointed out, then confidence in the U.S. and indeed global markets will gradually return to normal.</p><p>What's tricky now, however, is that less than 3% of Silicon Valley Bank's depositors have balances below $250,000. Others are big, blue and prosperous Silicon Valley venture capital companies, including Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, Gaorong Capital, etc. Many Silicon Valley companies involve funds ranging from hundreds of millions to billions. No wonder before Silicon Valley was taken over, the squeeze scale reached more than 40 billion US dollars. Under such squeezing pressure, basically no bank can survive.</p><p>If the FDIC U.S. Deposit Insurance Committee can't support it alone, can the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury turn the tide like they did during Bear Stearns and Lehman?</p><p>Unfortunately, U.S. law most likely won't allow it. If the Federal Reserve wants to take action, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of \"systemic risk\"-but the current Silicon Valley is obviously different from the impact of the collapses of Bear Stearns and Lehman. The Fed's intervention must be \"broad-based\", not just to benefit a certain company. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cannot intervene in a bankrupt company that has been taken over. The U.S. Treasury Department can't use money that has not been approved by congressional legislation. Now clever women have no rice.</p><p>Therefore, in the end, it seems that the FDIC still has to carry it alone. Of the measures I proposed above to save Silicon Valley, the first one about small savers is easy to do. The second step of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay off large depositors has begun. It is reported that hedge funds have already offered 60-80% to buy Silicon Valley Bank deposits. If 60-80% of Silicon Valley assets can be realized at this time of crisis, then the price should be higher after the panic in the US market eases. After all, U.S. Treasury Bond trades as much as $650 billion every day. As for the third article, it seems that there is no news yet about big banks taking over.</p><p>(News came out before this article was published: On March 12, local time, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the FDIC issued a joint statement stating that starting from Monday, March 13, depositors can withdraw all their funds. Any losses related to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank None of them will be borne by taxpayers.)</p><p>After VIX implied volatility surged nearly 30% on Friday, sentiment in international markets began to ease, and CFDs in overseas markets even rose slightly. For cryptocurrencies closely related to Silicon Valley, Bitcoin has returned to more than 20,000, and the US dollar stablecoin has returned to around 1 after experiencing a roller coaster market. These digital currencies are the most sensitive to system liquidity. (pictured)</p><p>Picture from the author</p><p>Will the Fed open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley was precisely caused by the Federal Reserve's unscrupulous release of water and helicopter money, which caused the yield of U.S. bonds to plummet and the deposits of savers to skyrocket. If Silicon Valley is used as an excuse to print money again, then the only trace of credit the Federal Reserve has will be gone with the wind.</p><p>When Lehman collapsed that year, its assets reached US $640 billion, and the scale of related derivatives contracts was several trillion dollars. And this weekend, Silicon Valley Bank, with assets of US $220 billion, also holds a large amount of highly liquid U.S. debt.</p><p>If there is any similarity between the two stories, it is that the current chief internal affairs officer of Silicon Valley Bank is the chief financial officer of Lehman back then. One person who single-handedly brought down the two largest banks in the United States is really the Thanos of the American financial system.</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became \"blood debt\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became \"blood debt\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">观察者网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-13 12:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>I don't know why, but banks in the United States always fail on weekends? Look at Bear Stearns and Lehman in 2008, both of which collapsed over the weekend, and then American regulators,<span>Federal Reserve</span>And the U.S. Treasury. This time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>It's no exception.</p><p>On March 10, Silicon Valley Bank was officially taken over by the American Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the stock was suspended. Silicon Valley Bank was once the fastest growing bank in deposits in the United States. At one time, the annual growth of deposits soared from US $60 billion to US $120 billion, far surpassing Morgan, the largest bank in the United States.</p><p>After the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed used<span>Monetary policy</span>In the fight against the epidemic, household savings deposits once reached about US $1 trillion, and broad money M2 increased by more than 25%. Many people are bullish on U.S. stocks, believing that these huge amounts of idle cash will one day enter the market and become stocks. Obviously, many people forget the principle of double-entry accounting-there must be a loan.</p><p>For a bank like Silicon Valley, with more than 100 billion dollars of deposits, the ledger is full of the largest and bluest venture capital companies and technology upstarts in Silicon Valley, including the Founder's Fund, the godfather of Silicon Valley Peter Thiel. How should it conduct liquidity management? Since the Fed's interest rate is zero, buy the safest in the world<span>Assets</span>-Short-term U.S. debt. You can also eat some interest and earn a little money.</p><p>However, the good times didn't last long. By the end of 2021, U.S. inflation began to soar sharply, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to be out of control, and short-term U.S. bond yields began to rise sharply at the same time, resulting in the plunge in U.S. bonds in 2022, which was the highest in history in 1800 and more than 200 years. Suddenly, the world's safest asset has become the eye of the storm (pictured).</p><p>Picture from the author</p><p>At this moment, the U.S. bond holdings in Silicon Valley Bank's books are beginning to lose money. Even if it hasn't been sold yet, the bookkeeping still needs to be<span>Market price</span>To calculate mark to market. Silicon Valley's market-to-market losses have exceeded its total equity. The rating company did not delay for a moment and began to prepare to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>But deposit interest rates are still close to zero, and the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>I didn't want to be harvested helplessly, so I started to withdraw my bank deposits to buy money funds with a yield close to 4% now. If Silicon Valley Bank raises interest on deposits significantly, it will have less spread income and extra liquidity to pay. At this time, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma.</p><p>Silicon Valley Investment Banks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Seeing this commission opportunity, he began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell part of its U.S. debt portfolio and sell $2.25 billion in stocks to replenish capital. This idea is really rancid: the data forced to disclose during the financing roadshow showed that customers in Silicon Valley were withdrawing money on a large scale, and deposits in Silicon Valley were lost in large quantities. If it weren't for the roadshow disclosure, the market wouldn't have known the details. Now the market thinks that Silicon Valley is about to go bankrupt, and it is accelerating the squeeze, and then there is the scene at the beginning of this article. Since Silicon Valley is a large customer with deposits far exceeding US $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not suitable for the protection clause of the US deposit insurance ceiling of US $250,000.</p><p>Because many other local banks are using similar methods for cash management, they are bound to face the same risks today when the short-term yield of U.S. bonds soars. This also explains why markets are wishful thinking that the Fed will stop rate hike soon. Obviously, the ass determines their heads.</p><p>Of course, now the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must consider the impact on the US banking industry. Uncle Bao has always said recently that we should \"consider the data comprehensively the totality of data \". Last night, the market hid on the short end of U.S. bonds out of safe haven needs, and yields began to fall sharply.</p><p>Many people continue to disagree with the historic inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk. It is impossible to sustain this form. And its twist will surely shatter the sky and the earth. Although the long-term risk is stable, the short-term risk is high. And we need to live past the short term to see the long term.</p><p>\"But this long-term prediction is of no help to the present. In the long run, we are dead early. The job of economists is too easy and useless. When the storm comes, economists can only tell us that the storm will always pass, and then the sea will be calm again.\" -Keynes</p><p><strong>The second Lehman?</strong></p><p>Now, the worry for global markets is: Will Silicon Valley Bank be relieved? Many brick professionals rushed to tell each other that if American supervision did not take action, Silicon Valley would become the second Lehman and bring down the entire American financial system. There is also a request for the Federal Reserve to reopen the gate to print money, although if it is printed again, the US dollar will soon become a ghost coin.</p><p>Before Monday, the market needs to see three rescue measures: 1) Small depositors below $250,000 will be fully paid; 2) Depositors above the deposit insurance ceiling of US $250,000 receive partial reimbursement, and are guaranteed that in the future, depending on the sale and realization of Silicon Valley Bank's assets, these large depositors can receive most of the reimbursement (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four largest banks in the United States take over Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>If these measures can be introduced, or at least most of them can be promised, and a path to defuse Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy can be pointed out, then confidence in the U.S. and indeed global markets will gradually return to normal.</p><p>What's tricky now, however, is that less than 3% of Silicon Valley Bank's depositors have balances below $250,000. Others are big, blue and prosperous Silicon Valley venture capital companies, including Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, Gaorong Capital, etc. Many Silicon Valley companies involve funds ranging from hundreds of millions to billions. No wonder before Silicon Valley was taken over, the squeeze scale reached more than 40 billion US dollars. Under such squeezing pressure, basically no bank can survive.</p><p>If the FDIC U.S. Deposit Insurance Committee can't support it alone, can the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury turn the tide like they did during Bear Stearns and Lehman?</p><p>Unfortunately, U.S. law most likely won't allow it. If the Federal Reserve wants to take action, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of \"systemic risk\"-but the current Silicon Valley is obviously different from the impact of the collapses of Bear Stearns and Lehman. The Fed's intervention must be \"broad-based\", not just to benefit a certain company. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cannot intervene in a bankrupt company that has been taken over. The U.S. Treasury Department can't use money that has not been approved by congressional legislation. Now clever women have no rice.</p><p>Therefore, in the end, it seems that the FDIC still has to carry it alone. Of the measures I proposed above to save Silicon Valley, the first one about small savers is easy to do. The second step of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay off large depositors has begun. It is reported that hedge funds have already offered 60-80% to buy Silicon Valley Bank deposits. If 60-80% of Silicon Valley assets can be realized at this time of crisis, then the price should be higher after the panic in the US market eases. After all, U.S. Treasury Bond trades as much as $650 billion every day. As for the third article, it seems that there is no news yet about big banks taking over.</p><p>(News came out before this article was published: On March 12, local time, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the FDIC issued a joint statement stating that starting from Monday, March 13, depositors can withdraw all their funds. Any losses related to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank None of them will be borne by taxpayers.)</p><p>After VIX implied volatility surged nearly 30% on Friday, sentiment in international markets began to ease, and CFDs in overseas markets even rose slightly. For cryptocurrencies closely related to Silicon Valley, Bitcoin has returned to more than 20,000, and the US dollar stablecoin has returned to around 1 after experiencing a roller coaster market. These digital currencies are the most sensitive to system liquidity. (pictured)</p><p>Picture from the author</p><p>Will the Fed open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley was precisely caused by the Federal Reserve's unscrupulous release of water and helicopter money, which caused the yield of U.S. bonds to plummet and the deposits of savers to skyrocket. If Silicon Valley is used as an excuse to print money again, then the only trace of credit the Federal Reserve has will be gone with the wind.</p><p>When Lehman collapsed that year, its assets reached US $640 billion, and the scale of related derivatives contracts was several trillion dollars. And this weekend, Silicon Valley Bank, with assets of US $220 billion, also holds a large amount of highly liquid U.S. debt.</p><p>If there is any similarity between the two stories, it is that the current chief internal affairs officer of Silicon Valley Bank is the chief financial officer of Lehman back then. One person who single-handedly brought down the two largest banks in the United States is really the Thanos of the American financial system.</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202303131235438418d560&s=b\">观察者网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202303131235438418d560&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2319208799","content_text":"不知道为什么，美国的银行总是在周末倒闭？看看2008年的贝尔斯登和雷曼，都是在周末轰然倒下， 然后美国监管部门、美联储和美国财政部介入。这次的硅谷银行也不例外。3月10日，硅谷银行由美国存款保险公司正式接管，股票停牌。硅谷银行曾是美国存款增长最快的银行，一度存款年增长从600亿美元飙升至1200亿美元，远远超过了美国最大的银行极品摩根。2020年新冠疫情之后，美联储用货币政策抗疫，家庭储蓄存款一度达到约10000亿美元，广义货币M2增长超25%。很多人看多美股，认为这些巨量的闲置现金总有一天会入市化身为股票。显然，很多人忘记了会计复式记账原则——有借必有贷。对于像硅谷这样的银行来说，一千多亿美元的存款，账本上全是硅谷最大最蓝的创投公司和科技新贵，包括了硅谷教父Peter Thiel的创始人基金Founder’s Fund，它应该如何进行流动性管理？既然美联储利率是零，那么就都买全世界最安全的资产——短期美债吧。还可以吃点利息，挣点小钱。然而好景不长。到了2021年底，美国通胀开始大幅飙升，美联储货币政策开始拿捏不住，短端美债收益率同时开始大幅上扬，导致了美债2022年的暴跌是1800年、两百多年有史以来之最。突然，全球最安全的资产变成了风暴之眼（如图）。图自作者此刻，硅谷银行账上的美债持仓开始血亏。即便是还没有卖，记账上也需要以市价来计算mark to market。硅谷的市价计价的损失已经超过了其股本总额。评级公司一刻也没有耽误，开始准备下调硅谷银行的评级。但存款利率依然接近零，美国老百姓也不想就这么眼睁睁地被收割，开始把银行存款取出来买现在收益率已经接近4%的货币基金。如果硅谷银行大幅上调存款利息，那么它的利差收入就会减少，还要支付额外的流动性。这时，硅谷发现自己进退维谷。硅谷的投行高盛看到了这个佣金机会，开始建议硅谷卖掉一部分美债组合，同时卖22.5亿美元的股票以补充资本金。这个主意，真是馊得不能再馊：融资路演时被迫披露的数据显示，硅谷的客户在大规模取钱，硅谷的存款大量流失。如果不是路演披露，本来市场并不知道详情。现在市场认为硅谷快破产了，更加速挤提，然后就是本文开头的那一幕。由于硅谷都是大客户，存款远超25万美元，因此硅谷银行95%以上的存款不适应于美国存款保险上限25万美元的保护条款。因为有很多其它地方性银行在使用类似的手段进行现金管理，在美债短端收益率飙升的今天，它们必然面临着同样的风险。这也解释了为什么市场一厢情愿地认为美联储将很快停止加息。显然，屁股决定了他们的脑袋。当然，现在美联储的货币政策必须考虑对于美国银行业的影响。鲍叔最近总是说，要“全面考虑数据 the totality of data”。昨夜，市场出于避险需求躲在美债短端，收益率开始大幅下降。很多人继续对于美债收益率曲线历史性倒挂不以为然。其实，收益率曲线的倒挂就是一种风险的扭曲。这种形态是不可能持续的。而它的扭转，必将天崩地裂。虽然长期风险稳定，但是短端风险的高企。而我们需要活过了短期，才能看到长期。“但这种长期预测对于当下毫无帮助。长期，我们早死了。经济学家这工作太容易了，太无用了。在暴风雨来临之际，经济学家只能告诉我们暴风雨总会过去，之后大海又将重归平静。” ——凯恩斯第二个雷曼？现在，全球市场的担忧在于：硅谷银行是否会被救济？许多砖家奔走相告，称如果美国监管不出手的话，硅谷就会成为第二个雷曼，扳倒整个美国金融系统。还有要求美联储重新开闸印钱，尽管如果再印，美币很快会变成冥币。在周一前，市场需要看到三个救助的措施：1）低于25万美元的小储户得到全额的偿付；2）高于25万美元的存款保险上限的储户获得部分偿付，并保证在未来一段时期内，视乎硅谷银行资产的出售变现情况，这些大储户可以得到大部分的偿付（比如80%）；3）让美国四大银行之一接手硅谷银行。如果可以出台这些措施，或者至少可以承诺大部分措施，并指出化解硅谷银行破产的路径，那么美国乃至全球市场的信心将逐步恢复正常。然而，现在棘手的是，硅谷银行只有不到3%的储户存款余额低于25万美元。其它都是又大又蓝、盛极一时的硅谷创投公司，包括红杉资本、Paradigm、a16z，高榕资本等。很多硅谷公司涉及的资金高达几亿到几十亿不等。怪不得硅谷被接管前，挤提规模达400多亿美元。在这样的挤提压力下，基本没有银行可以存活。如果FDIC美国存款保险委员会独力难支，那么美联储、美国财政部是否能够像当年贝尔斯登、雷曼时期那样力挽狂澜？遗憾的是，美国的法律很可能不允许。如果美联储要出手，硅谷危机必须符合“系统性危机systemic risk”的定义 ——但现在的硅谷显然与当年贝尔斯登、雷曼倒闭的影响不一样。美联储的干预必须是有“广泛基础的broad-based”，而不能仅仅让某个公司受惠。同时，美联储不能干预一个已经被接管了的破产公司。美国财政部也不能使用没有经过国会立法批准的钱，现在巧妇无米。所以，最后看来还是要FDIC一个人扛。我以上提出的拯救硅谷的措施，第一条关于小储户的很容易做到。第二条关于变卖硅谷资产来偿付大储户的步骤已经开始。据闻，已经有对冲基金出价60-80%去买硅谷银行的存款。如果在此危难之际，硅谷资产可以变现60-80%，那么在美国市场恐慌缓和之后，价钱应该会更高。毕竟，美国国债每天交易6500亿美元之多。而第三条关于大银行接手，似乎暂时还没有消息。（本文发稿之前传出消息：当地时间3月12日，美联储、财政部、FDIC发布联合声明称，从3月13日周一开始，储户可以支取他们所有的资金。与硅谷银行破产有关的任何损失都不会由纳税人承担。）在周五VIX隐含波动率飙升近30%之后，国际市场的情绪开始缓和，海外市场差价合约甚至略升。与硅谷密切相关的加密货币，比特币回到两万以上，美元稳定币经历了过山车行情之后，重新回到1附近。这些数字货币对于系统流动性是最敏感的。（如图）图自作者美联储会因为硅谷银行而再次开闸放水吗？其实，硅谷的破产恰恰是美联储无节操放水、直升机撒钱导致美债收益率暴跌、储蓄户存款暴涨造成的。如果再次以硅谷为借口印钱，那么美联储仅有的一丝信用，也将随风而逝。当年雷曼倒闭的时候，资产规模达6400亿美元，关联衍生品合约规模几万亿美元，确有雷霆万钧、一发全身之势。而这个周末的硅谷银行，资产规模2200亿美元，还持有大量的、流动性很好的美债。如果说两个故事有什么雷同之处，那么就是硅谷银行现在的首席内务官是当年雷曼的首席财务官。一个人以一己之力放倒了美国两家最大的银行，真是美国金融系统的灭霸。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SIVB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":650647196,"gmtCreate":1679270545517,"gmtModify":1679270545517,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544220031107044","authorIdStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;","listText":"[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;","text":"[爱心] [爱心] [爱心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650647196","repostId":"1106466264","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106466264","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679202350,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106466264?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-19 13:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Credit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106466264","media":"IN咖","summary":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后，2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机：震撼世界的一周》（Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The Wor","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, CNBC premiered the original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\" on September 12, 2018.</p><p>In this documentary, Andrew Ross Sorkin, the CNBC anchor and author of the best-selling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews people who were mostly at the center of the vortex at that time, trying to show the public how the United States and the world in 2008 were close to a total economic collapse and led to the worst financial crisis in generations.</p><p>The documentary is a series of exciting interviews. The top officials of the U.S. government and CEOs of major U.S. banks interviewed have gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.</p><p>CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others from Wall Street described dramatic 24/7 negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment when he realized that a Lehman bankruptcy could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin asked this question again and again to those reunited by this documentary. They recalled the nightmare they faced ten years ago and shared weal and woe with the world's financial destiny.</p><p>The main character of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to go bankrupt in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for help, hoping that he would provide financial support in a pinch. He later referred to this incident as \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett gave some details of the crisis process, the interlocking impact on regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One's own considerations have been talked about, and the handling of human nature is also very interesting.</p><p>He said, \"<b>Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b>”</p><p>\"Crisis always comes at some point,<b>But I'm not worried about the crisis because I manage my behavior properly.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was launched in 2018, ten years after the crisis. Such a just right time distance makes Buffett's retrospection and thinking more meaningful in the present.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Opposite shore<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>, spreading investors' concerns about the stability of the European and American banking systems.</p><p>At this time, it will be very enlightening for us to look back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight given to decision-making information, and the consistent investment principles he holds.</p><p>This translation by Eason is very pleasant to read. I hope it will be beneficial for everyone to open the book.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Going back to 2008 and looking at the big picture, what do you think caused the 2008 crisis.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>The numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that people think that housing will only go up and not go down, and the housing market is at $2 trillion. It's a very huge asset class.</p><p>People used it as money (through asset securitization), but then people found that it didn't go all the way up.</p><p>They borrowed money through real estate, which affected this incident from beginning to end in this rope.</p><p>The people at the top of the rope are busy issuing mortgages on real estate they know they don't need to hold, and they can immediately pack them and sell them to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and whether the monthly payment of the mortgage lender is too high or whether they are misstating their income doesn't seem to have any impact on them.</p><p>The people who refinanced them were also involved.</p><p>Essentially, there is a huge speculation in real estate. Of the 75 million American home buyers, 50 million participated in the mortgage business, and only 25 million avoided the impact. 50 million loan households get houses through leverage, and many people depend on them to survive, while their asset prices collapse.</p><p>This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.</p><p>They believe (real estate prices only go up but not down), and when people believe something ridiculous, such things will happen.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>In early 2008, some hedge funds holding subprime loans collapsed. Were you worried at that time? Do you remember your mood at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I always assume that (if) I participate in the American economy all my life, its value will rise sharply over time, but at the same time, it will be accompanied by some stumbling.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will have some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, and I don't predict the business (future direction), I just try to adapt to everything that happens.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did get a call from a leading Wall Street company trying to sell us many, many, many billions of Freddie Mac stock. I knew something might have gone wrong.</p><p><b>\"I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the front page, and I knew that we wouldn't invest in it (Lehman).\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>I don't know if you remember, after Bear Stearns fell and before Freddie and Fannie, you received a phone call from Richard Dick Fuld, chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers, who told you that his stock was being attacked by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, I highly doubt anyone saying that to me. I like people who sell short Berkshire, how can short sellers hurt you?</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Forde said that you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion yuan. Were you interested at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm interested in hearing him out.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>How did you respond to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him, give me your thoughts, first tell me your offer, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could get Henry \"Hank\" Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) to call me about the issue.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. on Friday morning, and he offered some totally substandard endorsements. He probably hoped that I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch was too hard. I think he also realized it was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, I opened Lehman's 10K report that afternoon and it was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we wouldn't invest in it.</p><p>My office still keeps this note.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What do you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances and scenarios that were already happening on Wall Street at the time, and probably happening to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Now we come to \"that weekend\" of September 12, 2008. What you are getting now is not a phone call from Lehman Brothers but a phone call from AIG asking if you would like to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you guys, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point in time, I refused.</p><p>Soon after, they returned to our view. I said at the time, I can't solve this problem. We have to pay about 27 billion dollars. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we will go because of this.</p><p>What was true then was that they passed me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday night telling me they were in crisis.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What do you think it means that they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This means, they know that if we see something, our actions can be very quick. We are probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.</p><p>And for this case, they know that I am very interested in the insurance business. They may be out of business in a few days, so they are also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and was aware of everything that was going on, I think whether I had the ability to step in or not, I would choose to step in.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>When many people look back on this crisis, they still regard the fall of Lehman Brothers that weekend as the crucial moment of the crisis, and debate whether the US government should intervene at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>And the Wall Street Journal both wrote op-eds praising (the U.S. government didn't intervene).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yeah, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street guys fuck off, we've had enough of them\".</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that whatever they want to do, they can do it. This may change somewhat under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...</p><p>(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during the Obama presidency.)</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So you think if the Fed wanted to step in, they could have stepped in at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and saw everything that was going on in the United States, I think I would choose to step in whether I was able to step in or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court may have arrested me as a criminal, but I think from the perspective of national interest, that's what I have to do in that role.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise too much to the public. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink drastically, and various personal problems.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be rescued and the people will be protected.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Fed, and others in need of a bailout.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>HUGE. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then chairman of the New York Fed) and George Bush were arguing fiercely, but the American people wouldn't buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in this whole affair is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, who bought Merrill Lynch. \"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG was bailed out. But then, people began to worry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>When Lehman went bankrupt, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell like dominoes one after another, and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to take into account the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress didn't realize the magnitude of the problem, Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but his ability to realize the seriousness of the problem made me give him a high grade.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, when Goldman comes to you for money, you'll remember it.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think there are reliable people in power in the Treasury Department, reliable people in power in the Federal Reserve, and the president is reliable, except Congress worries me. I think the Golden Meeting is intact as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero of the whole affair is that Ken Lewis (CEO of Bank of America) bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice to buy Merrill Lynch for $30 (Note: In fact, Bank of America paid $30 billion to buy Merrill Lynch for about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At that time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said that we would pay $30 (a share) to buy it, which was a fair price.</p><p>If not, Merrill Lynch could be at only 30 cents on Monday.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>You think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>For the financial system as a whole, this is not a mistake. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after its acquisition, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced its acquisition on Sunday, it might have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>At the Lehman moment, if they decided to take the money to bail out Lehman, they would have to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on their own, and the whole thing would be different.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Looking back at that history, are there some things you felt you should have done but didn't do? What investments are not reached?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I can look back on any week and find something like this.</p><p>If we could have waited an extra 4-5 months at that time, Berkshire could have bought a lot of things cheaper. Shares were much cheaper in March 2009 than they were in October 2008.</p><p>I wrote an op-ed in the New York Times in late October 2008, and I was right in the long run, but it was much cheaper after 4-5 months.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Do you think, this system has taken us so much forward, but still takes us back to the Great Depression, where are these red lines?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not properly handled, it may last longer. But there is always a way out of the crisis, and we have come out of the crisis.</p><p>At one point, the government must step up and step in to solve the crisis. There is only one force in the whole world that can make people reduce leverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they don't do so for some reason, the crisis will come.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>For the public, the new generation, are there any lessons they can learn from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No, no. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was set up.</p><p>In the nineteenth century, there were all kinds of panic in our country.<b>Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's IQ. Even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.</p><p>I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear. At that time, they chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is enormous.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Do you see any connections, implications between the crisis of ten years ago and the politics, governments and institutions of the present?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memory. The same was true in 1929, which took a long time. When they feel extreme fear, something will be left and engraved in their minds.</p><p>They want to know who causes their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>When buying a house, falsely report a little income on the loan application form, think that house prices will continue to rise, so refinance accordingly, etc. Who will be blamed for these things?</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? It's also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>A lot of people do very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always people doing fake things. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market, because you can easily make money from it. You can make a new loan in Bakersfield, California and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, and the value of one security contract is based on another contract.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to look at 300,000 pages of material to understand primary securities and subordinate securities based on it and so on. Moreover, for quite some time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this way.</p><p>Crisis will happen here.</p><p><b>\"Crisis will always come at some point, but I'm not worried about it. Because I manage my behavior properly.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crisis always comes at some point, but I'm not worried about it.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Why?</p><p><b>Buffett because I manage my behavior properly, even if another crisis comes, Berkshire will be very healthy</b>。</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What are you worried about at the moment?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people into the market who completely don't understand it. People are interested in it because of asset appreciation, but they don't really know it themselves.</p><p>When you think your neighbor, who is much dumber than you, has become rich because of rising asset prices, and you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>It's just so contagious.</p><p>This is a part of the capital system that will always be there. But you ask me which class of assets is in this state right now, and I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Are we better positioned to deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is an interesting question. I've never read the 2,000 + pages of the Dodd-Frank Act in its entirety, I've only read the synopsis.</p><p>I have a view, and my view may be wrong. But I (do) think that this bill may hinder the Fed from dealing with the crisis quickly and cooperatively.</p><p>It was a terrible mistake, I would say. We need a Fed with powerful power!</p><p>You may not like it, and it may do something you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion residential market and more than 75 million home buyers, you need a force capable of reducing leverage.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\" on CNBC at that time. I had never used such a metaphor before. I felt that I had never experienced anything like this before.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis at that time was even worse than it was in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow plunged after hitting a high of 381. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones has returned to 250 points. It has not caused so many people to panic on such a widespread scale.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but the scope of Wall Street at that time was far less than it is now, which may be caused by 401K and many other things. Dwelling will reach everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1679202057054","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IN咖</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-19 13:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, CNBC premiered the original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\" on September 12, 2018.</p><p>In this documentary, Andrew Ross Sorkin, the CNBC anchor and author of the best-selling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews people who were mostly at the center of the vortex at that time, trying to show the public how the United States and the world in 2008 were close to a total economic collapse and led to the worst financial crisis in generations.</p><p>The documentary is a series of exciting interviews. The top officials of the U.S. government and CEOs of major U.S. banks interviewed have gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.</p><p>CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others from Wall Street described dramatic 24/7 negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment when he realized that a Lehman bankruptcy could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin asked this question again and again to those reunited by this documentary. They recalled the nightmare they faced ten years ago and shared weal and woe with the world's financial destiny.</p><p>The main character of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to go bankrupt in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for help, hoping that he would provide financial support in a pinch. He later referred to this incident as \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett gave some details of the crisis process, the interlocking impact on regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One's own considerations have been talked about, and the handling of human nature is also very interesting.</p><p>He said, \"<b>Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b>”</p><p>\"Crisis always comes at some point,<b>But I'm not worried about the crisis because I manage my behavior properly.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was launched in 2018, ten years after the crisis. Such a just right time distance makes Buffett's retrospection and thinking more meaningful in the present.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Opposite shore<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>, spreading investors' concerns about the stability of the European and American banking systems.</p><p>At this time, it will be very enlightening for us to look back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight given to decision-making information, and the consistent investment principles he holds.</p><p>This translation by Eason is very pleasant to read. I hope it will be beneficial for everyone to open the book.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Going back to 2008 and looking at the big picture, what do you think caused the 2008 crisis.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>The numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that people think that housing will only go up and not go down, and the housing market is at $2 trillion. It's a very huge asset class.</p><p>People used it as money (through asset securitization), but then people found that it didn't go all the way up.</p><p>They borrowed money through real estate, which affected this incident from beginning to end in this rope.</p><p>The people at the top of the rope are busy issuing mortgages on real estate they know they don't need to hold, and they can immediately pack them and sell them to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and whether the monthly payment of the mortgage lender is too high or whether they are misstating their income doesn't seem to have any impact on them.</p><p>The people who refinanced them were also involved.</p><p>Essentially, there is a huge speculation in real estate. Of the 75 million American home buyers, 50 million participated in the mortgage business, and only 25 million avoided the impact. 50 million loan households get houses through leverage, and many people depend on them to survive, while their asset prices collapse.</p><p>This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.</p><p>They believe (real estate prices only go up but not down), and when people believe something ridiculous, such things will happen.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>In early 2008, some hedge funds holding subprime loans collapsed. Were you worried at that time? Do you remember your mood at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I always assume that (if) I participate in the American economy all my life, its value will rise sharply over time, but at the same time, it will be accompanied by some stumbling.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will have some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, and I don't predict the business (future direction), I just try to adapt to everything that happens.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did get a call from a leading Wall Street company trying to sell us many, many, many billions of Freddie Mac stock. I knew something might have gone wrong.</p><p><b>\"I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the front page, and I knew that we wouldn't invest in it (Lehman).\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>I don't know if you remember, after Bear Stearns fell and before Freddie and Fannie, you received a phone call from Richard Dick Fuld, chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers, who told you that his stock was being attacked by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, I highly doubt anyone saying that to me. I like people who sell short Berkshire, how can short sellers hurt you?</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Forde said that you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion yuan. Were you interested at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm interested in hearing him out.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>How did you respond to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him, give me your thoughts, first tell me your offer, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could get Henry \"Hank\" Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) to call me about the issue.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. on Friday morning, and he offered some totally substandard endorsements. He probably hoped that I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch was too hard. I think he also realized it was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, I opened Lehman's 10K report that afternoon and it was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we wouldn't invest in it.</p><p>My office still keeps this note.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What do you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances and scenarios that were already happening on Wall Street at the time, and probably happening to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Now we come to \"that weekend\" of September 12, 2008. What you are getting now is not a phone call from Lehman Brothers but a phone call from AIG asking if you would like to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you guys, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point in time, I refused.</p><p>Soon after, they returned to our view. I said at the time, I can't solve this problem. We have to pay about 27 billion dollars. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we will go because of this.</p><p>What was true then was that they passed me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday night telling me they were in crisis.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What do you think it means that they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This means, they know that if we see something, our actions can be very quick. We are probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.</p><p>And for this case, they know that I am very interested in the insurance business. They may be out of business in a few days, so they are also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and was aware of everything that was going on, I think whether I had the ability to step in or not, I would choose to step in.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>When many people look back on this crisis, they still regard the fall of Lehman Brothers that weekend as the crucial moment of the crisis, and debate whether the US government should intervene at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>And the Wall Street Journal both wrote op-eds praising (the U.S. government didn't intervene).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yeah, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street guys fuck off, we've had enough of them\".</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that whatever they want to do, they can do it. This may change somewhat under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...</p><p>(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during the Obama presidency.)</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So you think if the Fed wanted to step in, they could have stepped in at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and saw everything that was going on in the United States, I think I would choose to step in whether I was able to step in or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court may have arrested me as a criminal, but I think from the perspective of national interest, that's what I have to do in that role.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise too much to the public. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink drastically, and various personal problems.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be rescued and the people will be protected.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Fed, and others in need of a bailout.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>HUGE. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then chairman of the New York Fed) and George Bush were arguing fiercely, but the American people wouldn't buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in this whole affair is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, who bought Merrill Lynch. \"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG was bailed out. But then, people began to worry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>When Lehman went bankrupt, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell like dominoes one after another, and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to take into account the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress didn't realize the magnitude of the problem, Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but his ability to realize the seriousness of the problem made me give him a high grade.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, when Goldman comes to you for money, you'll remember it.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think there are reliable people in power in the Treasury Department, reliable people in power in the Federal Reserve, and the president is reliable, except Congress worries me. I think the Golden Meeting is intact as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero of the whole affair is that Ken Lewis (CEO of Bank of America) bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice to buy Merrill Lynch for $30 (Note: In fact, Bank of America paid $30 billion to buy Merrill Lynch for about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At that time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said that we would pay $30 (a share) to buy it, which was a fair price.</p><p>If not, Merrill Lynch could be at only 30 cents on Monday.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>You think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>For the financial system as a whole, this is not a mistake. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after its acquisition, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced its acquisition on Sunday, it might have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>At the Lehman moment, if they decided to take the money to bail out Lehman, they would have to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on their own, and the whole thing would be different.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Looking back at that history, are there some things you felt you should have done but didn't do? What investments are not reached?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I can look back on any week and find something like this.</p><p>If we could have waited an extra 4-5 months at that time, Berkshire could have bought a lot of things cheaper. Shares were much cheaper in March 2009 than they were in October 2008.</p><p>I wrote an op-ed in the New York Times in late October 2008, and I was right in the long run, but it was much cheaper after 4-5 months.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Do you think, this system has taken us so much forward, but still takes us back to the Great Depression, where are these red lines?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not properly handled, it may last longer. But there is always a way out of the crisis, and we have come out of the crisis.</p><p>At one point, the government must step up and step in to solve the crisis. There is only one force in the whole world that can make people reduce leverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they don't do so for some reason, the crisis will come.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>For the public, the new generation, are there any lessons they can learn from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No, no. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was set up.</p><p>In the nineteenth century, there were all kinds of panic in our country.<b>Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's IQ. Even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.</p><p>I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear. At that time, they chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is enormous.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Do you see any connections, implications between the crisis of ten years ago and the politics, governments and institutions of the present?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memory. The same was true in 1929, which took a long time. When they feel extreme fear, something will be left and engraved in their minds.</p><p>They want to know who causes their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>When buying a house, falsely report a little income on the loan application form, think that house prices will continue to rise, so refinance accordingly, etc. Who will be blamed for these things?</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? It's also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>A lot of people do very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always people doing fake things. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market, because you can easily make money from it. You can make a new loan in Bakersfield, California and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, and the value of one security contract is based on another contract.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to look at 300,000 pages of material to understand primary securities and subordinate securities based on it and so on. Moreover, for quite some time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this way.</p><p>Crisis will happen here.</p><p><b>\"Crisis will always come at some point, but I'm not worried about it. Because I manage my behavior properly.\"</b></p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crisis always comes at some point, but I'm not worried about it.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Why?</p><p><b>Buffett because I manage my behavior properly, even if another crisis comes, Berkshire will be very healthy</b>。</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>What are you worried about at the moment?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people into the market who completely don't understand it. People are interested in it because of asset appreciation, but they don't really know it themselves.</p><p>When you think your neighbor, who is much dumber than you, has become rich because of rising asset prices, and you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>It's just so contagious.</p><p>This is a part of the capital system that will always be there. But you ask me which class of assets is in this state right now, and I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>Are we better positioned to deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>This is an interesting question. I've never read the 2,000 + pages of the Dodd-Frank Act in its entirety, I've only read the synopsis.</p><p>I have a view, and my view may be wrong. But I (do) think that this bill may hinder the Fed from dealing with the crisis quickly and cooperatively.</p><p>It was a terrible mistake, I would say. We need a Fed with powerful power!</p><p>You may not like it, and it may do something you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion residential market and more than 75 million home buyers, you need a force capable of reducing leverage.</p><p><b>SOLKIN:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\" on CNBC at that time. I had never used such a metaphor before. I felt that I had never experienced anything like this before.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis at that time was even worse than it was in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow plunged after hitting a high of 381. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones has returned to 250 points. It has not caused so many people to panic on such a widespread scale.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but the scope of Wall Street at that time was far less than it is now, which may be caused by 401K and many other things. Dwelling will reach everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g\">IN咖</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106466264","content_text":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后，2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机：震撼世界的一周》（Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World）。在这部纪录片中，CNBC主播、畅销书《大而不倒》（Too Big to Fail）的作者安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金（Andrew Ross Sorkin）采访了多为彼时深陷漩涡中心的人物，试图向公众展现2008年的美国和世界是如何接近全面经济崩溃、且导致了几代人来最严重的金融危机。纪录片是系列扣人心弦的采访讲述。受访的美国政府最高层官员以及美国各大银行CEO们，他们曾聚集在一起，试图拯救雷曼兄弟免于破产。来自华尔街的CEO杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）、约翰·塞恩（John Thain）和其他人描述了戏剧性的全天候谈判。前美国财政部长汉克·保尔森（Hank Paulson）讲述了他意识到雷曼破产可能会拖垮全球金融体系的绝望时刻。如此规模的金融危机会再次发生吗？索尔金一次又一次地向因这部纪录片再度聚首的人提出这个问题。他们回忆着十年前曾面临的噩梦，曾与世界范围的金融命运呼吸与共。本文的主角是沃伦·巴菲特。2008年银行开始破产时，高管们向巴菲特求助，希望他在紧要关头提供资金支持。后来，他将这一事件称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”。巴菲特在访谈中，对于危机过程中的一些细节，对于监管、机构、市场环环相扣的影响，以及伯克希尔自身的考量，都有谈到，其中关于人性的拿捏，也很有意思。他说，“当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机，因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”这场纪录片，是在危机发生十年之后2018年推出。这样一个恰恰好的时间距离，让巴菲特的回溯与思考，更富有当下的意义。尤其在硅谷银行倒闭事件引发连锁反应，从美国蔓延至大西洋对岸的瑞士信贷，让投资者对欧美银行体系稳定性的担忧蔓延。这时候，回头去看巴菲特对于 2008 年危机事件过程中，思考的方式，对于决策信息赋予的权重，以及所持有的一贯投资原则，对我们都会很有启发。Eason的这篇翻译，很有悦读感，希望大家开卷有益。“这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。”索尔金：回到2008年，从大局来看，你认为是什么导致了2008年的危机。巴菲特：众多的支流汇聚形成了密苏里河。（但我认为最重要的因素在于）人们认为房产会只涨不跌，而住宅市场规模达到了2万亿美元。这是一个非常巨大的资产类别。人们（通过资产证券化）将其当做货币使用，但随后人们发现它并非一路上涨。他们通过房产举债，在这条绳子的从头到尾都对这次事件造成了影响。绳子顶端的人忙着签发一些明知道自己无需持有的地产抵押贷款，他们签发之后可以立刻打包卖给远在挪威的投资者。有些人通过这些贷款进行再融资，房贷人的月供是否太高、是否虚报了自己的收入似乎对他们没有任何影响。为他们提供再融资的人也参与其中。本质上，（参与其中人）对房地产有一个巨大的投机行为。7500万美国购房家庭中有5000万个家庭参与了房贷业务，只有2500万避免受到了冲击。5000万贷款家庭通过杠杆获得房屋，很多人赖以生存，而他们的资产价格出现崩溃。这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。他们相信了（房产价格只涨不跌），当人们相信了某些荒唐的事情时，这样的事情就会发生。索尔金：2008年早期，一些持有次级贷款的对冲基金倒下了，你当时感到担忧吗？你还记得你当时的心情吗？巴菲特：我没有担忧。因为我始终假设（如果）一生都参与到美国经济当中的话，它的价值会随着时间大幅上涨，但同时会伴随着一些磕磕绊绊。我们的经济体系决定了我们会发生一些周期性的疯狂，所以我从不尝试预测市场，我也不会去预测生意（未来的走向），我只是试着去适应所发生的一切。2008年的夏天，我确实接到了某家华尔街头部公司的电话，试图卖给我们几百亿美元（many，many，many billions）的房地美股票。我知道可能出了大问题。“我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其（雷曼）进行投资。”索尔金：我不知道你是否还记得，在贝尔斯登倒下后、房地美和房利美出事前，你接到了迪克·福尔德（Richard Dick Fuld，雷曼兄弟董事长兼CEO）的电话，他告诉你，他的股票被卖空者狙击了。巴菲特：是的，任何人对我这么说，我都高度怀疑。我喜欢卖空伯克希尔的人，卖空者怎么会伤害到你？索尔金：福尔德说你有一个30-50亿的投资机会，你当时感兴趣了吗？巴菲特：我有兴趣听完他的讲话。索尔金：你如何回复他的？巴菲特：我告诉他，把你的想法告诉我，首先告诉我你的报价，然后我会知道我是否有兴趣对此做一些调查。接着，他抛出了一些试探性的想法。事实上，我还记得他问我能不能让汉克·保尔森（Henry“Hank”Merritt Paulson，时任美国财政部长）就此问题给我打电话。周五早上67点，汉克就给我打了电话，他提出了一些完全不合格的背书，他可能希望我会为雷曼提供融资，但他的推销用力过度了。我想他也意识到这样不对。无论如何，那天下午我翻开了雷曼的10K报告，它有250-300页长。我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其进行投资。我的办公室现在仍保存了这份笔记。索尔金：你看到了什么？巴菲特：我只是看到了很多让我担心他们财务状况的东西，以及当时已经在华尔街发生、可能也发生在他们身上的情景。“我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。”索尔金：现在我们来到了2008年9月12日的“那个周末”。你现在接到的不是来自雷曼兄弟的电话而是来自AIG的电话，询问你是否愿意对其投资100亿美元。巴菲特：我告诉他们，不要指望我们，我知道时间对你们来说非常宝贵，所以不要把时间浪费在我们身上。所以，那个时间点上，我拒绝了。不久之后，他们重新回到了我们的视野。我当时说，我无法解决这个问题，我们要支付大概270亿美元，我们有这个财力，但是我不知道我们因此会去往何处。当时的真实情况是，他们周五晚上8点传给了我很多材料，告诉我他们正处于危机之中。索尔金：你觉得，他们打电话给沃伦·巴菲特意味着什么？巴菲特：这意味着，他们知道如果我们看到了某样东西，我们的行动可以非常迅速。我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。并且针对这个案例，他们知道我对保险业务很感兴趣。他们可能在几天之内就要倒闭，因此他们也非常绝望。“如果我是当时的美联储主席并且意识到发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我会选择介入。”索尔金：很多人回顾这场危机时仍然将那个周末雷曼兄弟的倒下视作危机的关键时刻，并且争论那个时刻美国政府是否应该介入。第二天早上，纽约时报和华尔街日报都写了专栏文章赞扬（美国政府没有介入）。巴菲特：是的，当时所有人都想，“让这些华尔街的滚蛋，我们受够了他们”。很久以前，美联储主席说，无论他们想做什么，他们都可以这么去做。在《多德-弗兰克法案》下，这点可能发生一定的改变，但是……（注：《多德-弗兰克法案》全名是多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案，于2010年7月21日通过的美国联邦法律。通常被认为是奥巴马总统任期内颁布的最重要的法案之一。）索尔金：所以你认为，如果美联储想要介入，他们当时可以介入。巴菲特：如果我是当时的美联储主席并且看到了美国发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我都会选择介入。最高法院可能把我当作罪犯逮捕，但我认为从国家利益的角度来看，那是我在身处那个角色必须做的。索尔金：所以你认为美联储犯了错？巴菲特：我不知道。因为，他们必须要向公众承诺的太多了。很多人面临失去自己的住宅、看到自己的资产大幅缩水，以及各种个人问题。然而，你要承诺AIG的所有员工都会得到救助、民众也会得到保障，这么做非常困难。索尔金：当时，汉克、美联储和其他需要救助的人身上的政治压力有多大。巴菲特：巨大。伯南克（时任美联储主席）、汉克·保尔森、蒂姆·盖特纳（Tim Geithner，时任纽约联储主席）以及乔治·布什当时正在激烈争论，但美国民众不会买账的。“我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是美国银行CEO肯·刘易斯，他买下了美林。”索尔金：雷曼兄弟破产了，美国银行收购了美林，AIG得到了救助。但之后，人们又开始担忧通用电气、高盛、摩根斯坦利的未来。巴菲特：当雷曼破产之后，商业票据的最大持有者是货币市场基金，这些事情像（多米诺骨牌一样）一个接一个倒下，而汉克和伯南克做的任何事情必须考虑来自国会的反应。国会没有意识到问题的严重性，布什认识到了。我没有投票给他，但是他能意识到问题的严重性让我给他打很高的分。索尔金：那周的晚些时候，我接到了来自高盛的电话，你记得那通电话吗？巴菲特：我记得那通电话。哈哈，当高盛找你要钱，你会记得的。索尔金：你当时的想法是什么？巴菲特：我认为财政部有可靠的人在掌权、美联储有可靠的人掌权、总统也是可靠的，只不过国会让我担忧。我认为高盛会完好无损，只要市场没有被完全关闭。我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是肯·刘易斯（美国银行CEO）在周一买下了美林银行。我想他得到了一些意见以30美元的价格买下美林（注：实际上，美国银行以每股约29美元的价格，斥资300亿美元买下美林）。他周六做出了决定，周日宣布收购。当时，没有任何知道美林银行到底值多少钱，但是他说我们会支付30美元（一股）的价格买下它，这是个公正的价格。（如果不这么做，）美林周一（的股价）可能只有3毛钱。索尔金：你认为这是个大错误？巴菲特：对于整个金融系统来说，这不是错误。美林在被收购之后也表现得非常好，但在那个时点，如果美国银行没有在周日宣布收购，它可能是另一个雷曼兄弟。在雷曼时刻，如果他们决定拿钱为雷曼纾困，他们就不得不告诉美林依靠自己生存下去，整个事情就会变得不一样。“信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”索尔金：回溯那段历史，你是否有一些觉得自己应该做但没做的事？哪些没有达成的投资？巴菲特：我可以回顾任何一周，找到这样的事情。如果当时，我们可以多等待4-5个月的话，伯克希尔能以更便宜的价格买入很多东西。2009年3月的股价比2008年10月便宜得多。2008年10月下旬，我在纽约时报写了专栏文章，长期来看我是对的，但是4-5个月之后的价格要便宜得多。索尔金：你会不会思考，这个系统带我们前进了这么多，但仍然会让我们回到大萧条时期，这些红线在哪里？巴菲特：如果危机没有被妥善处理，可能会持续更长时间。但是总能走出危机，我们已经走出了危机。在某一个时刻，政府必须站出来介入解决危机。整个世界只有一种力量可以让人们降杠杆，只有一种力量（指政府部门）。如果他们由于某些原因没有这么去做，危机就会到来。索尔金：对于公众、新一代人来说，他们是否可以从这场危机中学到什么教训？巴菲特：没有。因为人们总会恐慌，这也是设立美联储的原因。19世纪时，我们国家有过各种各样的恐慌。当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。而且，这不受人们智商的影响、就算是有博士学历，害怕就是害怕了。我知道一些人，你听到他们的名字可能会惊讶，在那个时候，他们选择只相信黄金、不相信其他任何事物。害怕的力量是巨大的。索尔金：你认为十年前的危机与现在的政治、政府和机构之间有什么联系、影响吗？巴菲特：是的，人们的长期记忆。1929年时也是这样，这（化解）需要很长时间。当他们感受到了极端的恐惧，有些东西会留下、刻在他们的脑中。他们想知道谁造成了他们的恐惧。他们确实也不应该责怪自己。我的意思是，不应该要求每个人都是金融专家。在买房时在贷款申请表上虚报一点收入，认为房价会继续上涨所以依此进行再融资等等，谁会因为这些事儿受到责怪。索尔金：所以，是否有人应该为这场危机负责呢？这也是个政治问题。巴菲特：很多人做了非常愚蠢的事情，但我不认为有人应该（为此负责）。我是说，始终有一些人在做一些虚假的事情。一定程度上，这些人被房地产市场所吸引，因为你可以从中很容易赚到钱，你可以在加州贝克斯菲尔德新发贷款然后轻易地卖到挪威。然后，它变成了一连串合约，一个证券合约的价值要基于另一个合约。我曾看过一份证券化产品，我不得不去看长达30万页的材料去理解初级证券和基于它的次级证券等等。而且，在相当一段时间，大家都安然无恙，所以大家都习惯了这种方式。危机会在此发生的。“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”索尔金：你担心另一场危机的到来吗？巴菲特：危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。索尔金：为什么？巴菲特因为我妥善地管好自己的行为，就算另一场危机到来，伯克希尔也会非常健康。索尔金：当下，你会担忧什么事情？巴菲特：资产价格上涨吸引了完全不理解它的人进入市场。人们因为资产增值而对它感兴趣，但并不是自己真正了解它。当你认为比你笨很多的邻居因资产价格上涨而变得富有，而你没有变富，你的配偶就会问你：你就不能也弄明白（然后赚大钱）吗？这实在是太具传染性了。这是资本系统永远会存在的一部分。但你问我现在哪一类资产正处于这种状态，我还没有观察到。索尔金：我们现在能更好地应对另一场危机吗？巴菲特：这是一个有趣的问题。我从没有完整读过2000多页的《多德-弗兰克法案》，我只读了概要。我有一个种观点，我的这种观点可能是错误的。但是我（确实）认为，这份法案可能阻碍了美联储快速、与多方合作地（处理危机）。我会说，这是一个可怕的错误。我们需要一个拥有强权的美联储！你可能不喜欢它，它可能做一些你不喜欢的事情，但是这个拥有10万亿住宅市场、7500多万购房家庭的国家，你需要一个有能力降杠杆的力量。索尔金：在那一周，这些人不断地打电话给你，在当时你如何评估的？巴菲特：我当时确实在CNBC将之称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”，我之前从没用过这样的比喻。我感受到我从没经历过类似的事件。而且，从即时的恐慌程度来讲，当时的危机甚至比1929年更糟。1929年9月29日，道琼斯指数触及高点381点后暴跌。我于1930年8月出生，道琼斯已经回到了250点，它没有让这么多人陷于如此大范围的恐慌。它打击了华尔街，但那时的华尔街能影响到的范围远不及现在，这可能是由于401K和其他很多事情造成的。住宅会触及到所有人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650394069,"gmtCreate":1678879713453,"gmtModify":1678879713453,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544220031107044","authorIdStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;","listText":"[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;","text":"[爱心] [爱心] [爱心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650394069","repostId":"2319738701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319738701","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678754319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319738701?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 08:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Buffett sold right again? The wave of price cuts in the car circle is sudden, the latest interpretation of fund managers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319738701","media":"券商中国","summary":"近日声势浩大的车企降价潮，传导至股票市场引发汽车股巨震，3月10日当天，A、H股市场汽车股纷纷大跌，多股日内跌超5%。　　而若将时间线拉长来看，尽管年初出现反弹，但近半年汽车股整体呈震荡下跌趋势，汽车ETF下跌超20%。半年前开始的股神巴菲特对龙头股的减持，能否看成多米诺骨牌的第一张，还有待商榷，但目前投资界对于新能源车企贝塔行情的远去似乎已成共识。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Buy where no one cares, and sell when there is a lot of people. Recently, the massive wave of price cuts by auto companies has been transmitted to the stock market and caused a huge shock in auto stocks. On March 10, auto stocks in the A and H-share markets fell sharply, and many stocks fell by more than 5% within the day.</p><p>If we look at the timeline longer, despite the rebound at the beginning of the year, auto stocks have shown a volatile downward trend as a whole in the past six months, and auto ETFs have fallen by more than 20%. Whether Warren Buffett's reduction of leading stocks, which started six months ago, can be regarded as the first domino remains to be discussed, but at present, the investment community seems to have reached a consensus on the departure of the beta market of new energy vehicle companies.</p><p><b>Contradictions between production and sales trigger a wave of price cuts by car companies</b></p><p>\"The vehicle link is actually under great pressure. The competition among the original players is already very fierce, and new brands with Internet genes continue to enter. It is difficult to judge who can come out, and profit growth cannot be guaranteed for a long time.\" In August last year, a fund manager in South China once expressed his concerns to reporters. He said that after subsidies are withdrawn in 2023, car companies may fall into a price war.</p><p>In January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Taking the lead in launching the first shot of the electric vehicle price war, the starting prices of the main models Model 3 and Model Y dropped to 229,900 and 259,900 respectively, with the highest drop of 48,000. Subsequently, new car-making forces such as Wenjie, XPeng, Leapmotor, and Lantu successively adjusted their prices.</p><p>Recently, the maximum subsidy has reached 90,000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600006\">Dongfeng Motor</a>It has set off a huge wave of price cuts. According to incomplete statistics, so far, there have been Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Buick,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>More than 30 automobile brands, including others, participated in it through manufacturer subsidies or dealer price reductions. The most obvious feature is that most of them are fuel vehicle brands.</p><p>Regarding the reasons for the \"involution\" of prices among automobile manufacturers, Fan Ke, manager of Hony Yuanfang Automobile Industry Upgrading Fund, believes that in the past three years, the sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic market have increased by leaps and bounds, while the total volume has not increased much. Substitution, joint venture fuel vehicle companies are under increasing pressure, and vigorous promotions will begin in the second half of 2022. After Tesla launched a price war in 2023, the pressure on fuel vehicles will further intensify. According to observations, the sales pressure of fuel vehicles from January to February this year was very high, with a year-on-year decline of more than 30%.</p><p>In addition, the National VI B regulations on passenger car emissions will be implemented in July 2023, and the market is also worried about the inventory clearance situation similar to that in the second quarter of 2020. However, Fan Ke believes that this situation will most likely not happen. In the field of passenger cars, the cost difference between the complete National VI B standard and the National VI A. Most car companies have chosen to develop National VI B products in one step, so the actual impact is very limited.</p><p>But I have to admit that \"destocking\" is a key issue facing many car companies. Not only fuel vehicles, but also new energy vehicles have a surplus. Shi Cheng of UBS Fund of SDIC believes that basically most links in the industrial chain already have production capacity greater than sales. The follow-up may enter the time of price war, and the fierce competition among electric vehicles, power batteries and parts will accelerate the process of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy.</p><p>\"Enterprises have entered the range of cruel price wars, which is relatively unfavorable for those enterprises that are not competitive, profitable enough, not good enough technology, or not large enough scale effect.\" Cathay CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF Fund manager Xu Chengcheng believes that in such a competitive environment, the higher the market share and the stronger the vertical integration capability, car companies are actually dominant. For those companies that rely on suppliers or upstream components, the pressure is relatively high.</p><p>But everything has its two sides. Xu Chengcheng further stated that under the current situation of relatively weak sales expectations, price cuts can stimulate consumption very well. At the same time, they can also encourage companies to gain more market share and further enhance their product capabilities, such as using more and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving related technology, parts and products and much more. After all, as a growth industry, the automobile products become stronger and stronger, and more and more consumers will pay the bill.</p><p><b>Falling into correction after high valuations</b></p><p>\"In the past, the market was mainly due to expectations of intelligence and new energy, which gave vehicle companies relatively high valuations.\" In the view of the aforementioned South China fund manager, after the valuations of vehicle companies that met the above expectations were raised, the market Differences began to increase, and stock prices were more likely to fluctuate due to disturbances in market news. This is one of the reasons for the recent sharp fluctuations in stock prices of related car companies.</p><p>In fact, investment differences in vehicle companies began in the second half of last year, and one of the landmark events was Buffett's reduction of leading stocks. In June last year, BYD, the leading car company with the highest expectations for intelligence and new energy, and was at the forefront of its vehicle and battery business, once had a market value of one trillion yuan. At that time, there were market voices optimistic that BYD's market value would continue to reach 1.5 trillion yuan. However, Buffett, the stock god who is regarded as the \"wind vane\" of the investment community, began to reduce his holdings of BYD Hong Kong stocks that he has held for 14 years.</p><p>Looking back, in 2008, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway bought 225 million BYD Hong Kong shares at a price of HK $8 per share, and held them for 14 years. In June 2022, BYD Hong Kong shares once rose to HK $333 per share, compared with Buffett's buying price The increase exceeded 40 times. Two months later, in August 2022, Buffett began to reduce his holdings for the first time. As of the latest disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 9, Berkshire Hathaway holds approximately 130 million shares in BYD's Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>In other words, in about half a year, Buffett has reduced his holdings by about 95 million shares, and the number of positions has been reduced by more than 40%. Observing the stock price trend of BYD's Hong Kong stocks in the past six months, it only rebounded at the beginning of this year, and the overall trend remained volatile and downward. It fell by more than 8% on March 10, and the latest closing price was HK $201.2 per share, which has been nearly 40% lower than the historical high.</p><p>It should also be noted that in terms of A-shares, although BYD continued to rise in the number of shares held by Public Offering of Fund in the fourth quarter of last year, it fell out of the top ten holdings of Public Offering of Fund. Wind data statistics show that as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, BYD was heavily held by 631 funds with 132.0245 million shares, accounting for 11.33% of the outstanding shares, and a total of 716,800 shares were increased in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>The beta of the new energy vehicle industry may have peaked</b></p><p>Based on the present situation, we need to be more cautious in investing in new energy vehicles. In the eyes of some fund managers, the industry beta of new energy vehicles may have peaked.</p><p>\"At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 30%. What does this mean?\" A fund manager in Beijing said that on the one hand, it is an affirmation of the high growth of the industry in the past; On the other hand, it is a prompt signal that the pressure on the industry will increase in the future. The new energy vehicle industry has entered a competitive market. In this new market stage, as the total social output of products increases and prices drop, the profit growth rate of leading companies will also be challenged.</p><p>\"New energy vehicles will continue to be very prosperous in the future, but there is a high probability that there will be no such state as explosive growth in the past and money in all segments.\" Xu Chengcheng believes that there are two main lines of investment in new energy vehicles, one is electrification, and the other is intelligence. Among them, in the track of electrification (or the increase of electrification rate), the current pressure is still relatively high. Electrification is essentially a process of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, mainly reducing costs and increasing efficiency in electric and battery areas. Now, due to the relatively high price of raw materials, the profitability of related companies on the path of electrification is under great pressure. On the intelligent track, Xu Chengcheng feels more promising for growth. When the products are made better and better, and the experience of consumers and drivers is better and better, more people will naturally choose such products.</p><p>Gan Chuanqi, director of the Growth Investment Department of Zhongrong Fund, also said that entering the era of new energy vehicles, electrification and intelligence are the two major trends in China's automobile industry. Chinese brands not only have first-mover advantages in electrification and intelligence, but also have the advantages of low cost and quick response. However, growth not only represents growth space and market prospects, but also means potential risks and more uncertainties. We need to pay attention to growth with quality and barriers.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"cszg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett sold right again? The wave of price cuts in the car circle is sudden, the latest interpretation of fund managers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett sold right again? The wave of price cuts in the car circle is sudden, the latest interpretation of fund managers\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">券商中国</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-14 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Buy where no one cares, and sell when there is a lot of people. Recently, the massive wave of price cuts by auto companies has been transmitted to the stock market and caused a huge shock in auto stocks. On March 10, auto stocks in the A and H-share markets fell sharply, and many stocks fell by more than 5% within the day.</p><p>If we look at the timeline longer, despite the rebound at the beginning of the year, auto stocks have shown a volatile downward trend as a whole in the past six months, and auto ETFs have fallen by more than 20%. Whether Warren Buffett's reduction of leading stocks, which started six months ago, can be regarded as the first domino remains to be discussed, but at present, the investment community seems to have reached a consensus on the departure of the beta market of new energy vehicle companies.</p><p><b>Contradictions between production and sales trigger a wave of price cuts by car companies</b></p><p>\"The vehicle link is actually under great pressure. The competition among the original players is already very fierce, and new brands with Internet genes continue to enter. It is difficult to judge who can come out, and profit growth cannot be guaranteed for a long time.\" In August last year, a fund manager in South China once expressed his concerns to reporters. He said that after subsidies are withdrawn in 2023, car companies may fall into a price war.</p><p>In January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Taking the lead in launching the first shot of the electric vehicle price war, the starting prices of the main models Model 3 and Model Y dropped to 229,900 and 259,900 respectively, with the highest drop of 48,000. Subsequently, new car-making forces such as Wenjie, XPeng, Leapmotor, and Lantu successively adjusted their prices.</p><p>Recently, the maximum subsidy has reached 90,000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600006\">Dongfeng Motor</a>It has set off a huge wave of price cuts. According to incomplete statistics, so far, there have been Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Buick,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>More than 30 automobile brands, including others, participated in it through manufacturer subsidies or dealer price reductions. The most obvious feature is that most of them are fuel vehicle brands.</p><p>Regarding the reasons for the \"involution\" of prices among automobile manufacturers, Fan Ke, manager of Hony Yuanfang Automobile Industry Upgrading Fund, believes that in the past three years, the sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic market have increased by leaps and bounds, while the total volume has not increased much. Substitution, joint venture fuel vehicle companies are under increasing pressure, and vigorous promotions will begin in the second half of 2022. After Tesla launched a price war in 2023, the pressure on fuel vehicles will further intensify. According to observations, the sales pressure of fuel vehicles from January to February this year was very high, with a year-on-year decline of more than 30%.</p><p>In addition, the National VI B regulations on passenger car emissions will be implemented in July 2023, and the market is also worried about the inventory clearance situation similar to that in the second quarter of 2020. However, Fan Ke believes that this situation will most likely not happen. In the field of passenger cars, the cost difference between the complete National VI B standard and the National VI A. Most car companies have chosen to develop National VI B products in one step, so the actual impact is very limited.</p><p>But I have to admit that \"destocking\" is a key issue facing many car companies. Not only fuel vehicles, but also new energy vehicles have a surplus. Shi Cheng of UBS Fund of SDIC believes that basically most links in the industrial chain already have production capacity greater than sales. The follow-up may enter the time of price war, and the fierce competition among electric vehicles, power batteries and parts will accelerate the process of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy.</p><p>\"Enterprises have entered the range of cruel price wars, which is relatively unfavorable for those enterprises that are not competitive, profitable enough, not good enough technology, or not large enough scale effect.\" Cathay CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF Fund manager Xu Chengcheng believes that in such a competitive environment, the higher the market share and the stronger the vertical integration capability, car companies are actually dominant. For those companies that rely on suppliers or upstream components, the pressure is relatively high.</p><p>But everything has its two sides. Xu Chengcheng further stated that under the current situation of relatively weak sales expectations, price cuts can stimulate consumption very well. At the same time, they can also encourage companies to gain more market share and further enhance their product capabilities, such as using more and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving related technology, parts and products and much more. After all, as a growth industry, the automobile products become stronger and stronger, and more and more consumers will pay the bill.</p><p><b>Falling into correction after high valuations</b></p><p>\"In the past, the market was mainly due to expectations of intelligence and new energy, which gave vehicle companies relatively high valuations.\" In the view of the aforementioned South China fund manager, after the valuations of vehicle companies that met the above expectations were raised, the market Differences began to increase, and stock prices were more likely to fluctuate due to disturbances in market news. This is one of the reasons for the recent sharp fluctuations in stock prices of related car companies.</p><p>In fact, investment differences in vehicle companies began in the second half of last year, and one of the landmark events was Buffett's reduction of leading stocks. In June last year, BYD, the leading car company with the highest expectations for intelligence and new energy, and was at the forefront of its vehicle and battery business, once had a market value of one trillion yuan. At that time, there were market voices optimistic that BYD's market value would continue to reach 1.5 trillion yuan. However, Buffett, the stock god who is regarded as the \"wind vane\" of the investment community, began to reduce his holdings of BYD Hong Kong stocks that he has held for 14 years.</p><p>Looking back, in 2008, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway bought 225 million BYD Hong Kong shares at a price of HK $8 per share, and held them for 14 years. In June 2022, BYD Hong Kong shares once rose to HK $333 per share, compared with Buffett's buying price The increase exceeded 40 times. Two months later, in August 2022, Buffett began to reduce his holdings for the first time. As of the latest disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 9, Berkshire Hathaway holds approximately 130 million shares in BYD's Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>In other words, in about half a year, Buffett has reduced his holdings by about 95 million shares, and the number of positions has been reduced by more than 40%. Observing the stock price trend of BYD's Hong Kong stocks in the past six months, it only rebounded at the beginning of this year, and the overall trend remained volatile and downward. It fell by more than 8% on March 10, and the latest closing price was HK $201.2 per share, which has been nearly 40% lower than the historical high.</p><p>It should also be noted that in terms of A-shares, although BYD continued to rise in the number of shares held by Public Offering of Fund in the fourth quarter of last year, it fell out of the top ten holdings of Public Offering of Fund. Wind data statistics show that as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, BYD was heavily held by 631 funds with 132.0245 million shares, accounting for 11.33% of the outstanding shares, and a total of 716,800 shares were increased in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>The beta of the new energy vehicle industry may have peaked</b></p><p>Based on the present situation, we need to be more cautious in investing in new energy vehicles. In the eyes of some fund managers, the industry beta of new energy vehicles may have peaked.</p><p>\"At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 30%. What does this mean?\" A fund manager in Beijing said that on the one hand, it is an affirmation of the high growth of the industry in the past; On the other hand, it is a prompt signal that the pressure on the industry will increase in the future. The new energy vehicle industry has entered a competitive market. In this new market stage, as the total social output of products increases and prices drop, the profit growth rate of leading companies will also be challenged.</p><p>\"New energy vehicles will continue to be very prosperous in the future, but there is a high probability that there will be no such state as explosive growth in the past and money in all segments.\" Xu Chengcheng believes that there are two main lines of investment in new energy vehicles, one is electrification, and the other is intelligence. Among them, in the track of electrification (or the increase of electrification rate), the current pressure is still relatively high. Electrification is essentially a process of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, mainly reducing costs and increasing efficiency in electric and battery areas. Now, due to the relatively high price of raw materials, the profitability of related companies on the path of electrification is under great pressure. On the intelligent track, Xu Chengcheng feels more promising for growth. When the products are made better and better, and the experience of consumers and drivers is better and better, more people will naturally choose such products.</p><p>Gan Chuanqi, director of the Growth Investment Department of Zhongrong Fund, also said that entering the era of new energy vehicles, electrification and intelligence are the two major trends in China's automobile industry. Chinese brands not only have first-mover advantages in electrification and intelligence, but also have the advantages of low cost and quick response. However, growth not only represents growth space and market prospects, but also means potential risks and more uncertainties. We need to pay attention to growth with quality and barriers.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2023-03-13/doc-imyksqvf8808269.shtml\">券商中国</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/358f056a9bb38ecb12a7807cc060ce83","relate_stocks":{"01211":"比亚迪股份","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services 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Y起售价分别降至22.99万和25.99万，最高降幅达4.8万。随后，问界、小鹏、零跑、岚图等造车新势力相继调整售价。近日，最高补贴达9万的东风汽车更是掀起了一场声势浩大的降价潮，据不完全统计，截至目前已有包括奔驰、宝马、奥迪、别克、比亚迪等在内的超30个汽车品牌通过厂家补贴或经销商降价等方式参与其中，其中最为明显的特征就是燃油车品牌居多。关于此次汽车厂商间价格“内卷”的原因，弘毅远方汽车产业升级基金经理樊可认为，近三年来，国内市场新能源车销量突飞猛进，同时总量并没有太多增长，一直是存量替代，合资燃油车企压力越来越大，从2022年下半年就开始大力促销，2023年特斯拉掀起价格战之后燃油车压力进一步加剧。据观察，燃油车在今年1-2月销售压力非常大，同比下跌超30%。此外，乘用车排放国六B法规将于2023年7月开始执行，市场也担心会出现类似2020年二季度的清库存情况。不过，樊可认为，这种情况大概率不会发生。乘用车领域，完整的国六B标准，与国六A成本差异并不大，绝大部分车企都选择了一步到位研发国六B产品，所以实际影响非常有限。但不得不承认，“去库存”是摆在众多车企面前的关键课题。不仅燃油车，目前新能源汽车也已经出现了过剩。国投瑞银基金施成认为，基本上产业链上大部分环节，都已经是产能大于销量。后续可能将会进入价格战的时间，而电动汽车、动力电池和零部件激烈竞争，会加速新能源替代燃油车的过程。“企业进入残酷价格战的区间，这对于那些竞争力不强、盈利能力不够强、技术不够好，或者说规模化效应不够大的企业来说是比较不利的。”国泰中证新能源汽车ETF基金经理徐成城认为，在这样的竞争环境之下，市占率越高，垂直一体化能力越强的车企其实才是占优的。对于那些依赖供应商，或者是依赖上游零部件的企业，压力是比较大的。但任何事情都有其双面性。徐成城进一步表示，在目前销售预期比较疲弱的情况下，降价可以很好的刺激消费，与此同时，还能激励企业为了获得更多市场份额，从而进一步提升自身产品力，比如使用更多与智能驾驶相关的技术、零件和产品等等。毕竟汽车作为成长性行业，产品越来越强，就会有越来越多的消费者买单。估值高企后陷入调整“之前市场主要是因为智能化、新能源化的预期，给了整车企业比较高的估值。”在前述华南基金经理看来，符合上述预期的整车企业估值被拔高后，市场分歧开始加大，股价更易因市场消息的扰动加剧波动，这就是近期相关车企股价大幅波动的原因之一。事实上，对于整车企业的投资分歧从去年下半年就开始了，其中一个颇具标志性的事件就是巴菲特对龙头股的减持。去年6月，智能化、新能源化预期最高，整车和电池业务都走在前列的车企龙头比亚迪，市值一度冲向万亿，彼时有市场声音看好比亚迪市值继续冲至1.5万亿。然而，被视作投资界“风向标”的股神巴菲特却开始减持已持仓14年的比亚迪港股。回溯来看，2008年，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦以8港元/股的价格买入了2.25亿股比亚迪港股，此后持有时间长达14年，2022年6月，比亚迪港股一度上涨至333港元/股，相较巴菲特的买入价涨幅超40倍。两个月后，2022年8月，巴菲特开始首度减持。截至港交所在2月9日的最新一次披露，伯克希尔哈撒韦对比亚迪港股的持股数量约为1.3亿股。也就是说，半年左右时间，巴菲特累计减持约9500万股，持仓数量已降低超四成。而观察这半年来比亚迪港股的股价走势，仅在今年年初出现回弹，整体仍保持震荡下行，3月10日下跌超8%，最新报收201.2港元/股，较历史高点已回调近四成。同样需要注意的是，A股方面，尽管比亚迪在去年四季度遭公募基金重仓持股数量继续攀升，但却跌出公募基金十大重仓股之外。Wind数据统计显示，截至2022年四季度末，比亚迪被631只基金重仓持有13202.45万股，持股占流通股比例达11.33%，四季度被累计加仓71.68万股。新能源车行业贝塔或已见顶立足当下，对于新能源车的投资，需要更加慎重。在部分基金经理看来，新能源车的行业贝塔或已见顶。“目前国内新能源车的渗透率已经达到了30%，这意味着什么？”北京一位基金经理表示，一方面，是对行业过去高增长的肯定；另一方面，是行业未来压力将增大的提示信号。新能源车行业已经步入竞争型市场，在这个新的市场阶段，随着产品社会总产量的提高、价格的下探，龙头公司的利润增速也会受到挑战。“新能源汽车未来还会很景气，但是像过去呈爆发式增长、所有细分领域都赚钱的这种状态大概率应该不会有了。”徐成城认为，新能源车投资主线有两条，一个是电动化，另一个就是智能化。其中，在电动化（或者电动化率提升）这条赛道，目前面临的压力还比较大。电动化本质上就是降本增效的过程，主要是在电动、电池这一块降本增效。现在因为原料价格比较高，使得电动化这一条路径上相关企业的盈利能力大幅承压。而在智能化的赛道上，徐成城觉得更有成长性。把产品做得越来越好，让消费者、驾驶者的体验越来越好的情况下，自然而然会有更多的人选择这样的产品。中融基金成长投资部总监甘传琦也表示，进入新能源车时代，电动化和智能化是中国汽车行业的两大趋势。中国品牌不仅在电动化智能化方面具有先发优势，而且具有低成本、快速响应优势。不过，成长性不仅代表成长空间和市场前景，也意味着潜在风险和更多的不确定性，需要关注有质量、有壁垒的成长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":1,"BYDDY":0.9,"BRK.A":1,"01211":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650395892,"gmtCreate":1678879400819,"gmtModify":1678879400819,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544220031107044","authorIdStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[比心]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;","listText":"[比心]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;","text":"[比心] 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[比心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650395892","repostId":"627213766","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":627213766,"gmtCreate":1678345260000,"gmtModify":1678347399219,"author":{"id":"3524105276229621","authorId":"3524105276229621","name":"聪明投资人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a73a0ae6395ff58b664544b077c69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105276229621","authorIdStr":"3524105276229621"},"themes":[],"title":"巴菲特加倉西方石油到22.2%！兩位公募基金經理解讀最新股東信中的價值投資祕笈","htmlText":"在去年連續加註西方石油之後，巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件，巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油，在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股，持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格，價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃，並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量，他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時，投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想，在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上，身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅？！然而，並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量，他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭，其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信，展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣！》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信，他們從一個專業投資者的角度，解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文，聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年，他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣，每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信，這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時，正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期，而2020年來信時，也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心，我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信，但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題，以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式，1）100%&nbsp;控股，任命管理層，可以接受經營的失敗，但對個人不當行爲零容忍；2）投資公開交易","listText":"在去年連續加註西方石油之後，巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件，巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油，在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股，持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格，價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃，並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量，他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時，投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想，在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上，身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅？！然而，並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量，他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭，其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信，展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣！》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信，他們從一個專業投資者的角度，解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文，聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年，他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣，每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信，這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時，正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期，而2020年來信時，也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心，我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信，但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題，以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式，1）100%&nbsp;控股，任命管理層，可以接受經營的失敗，但對個人不當行爲零容忍；2）投資公開交易","text":"在去年連續加註西方石油之後，巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件，巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油，在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股，持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格，價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃，並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量，他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時，投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想，在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上，身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅？！然而，並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量，他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭，其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信，展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣！》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信，他們從一個專業投資者的角度，解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文，聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年，他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣，每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信，這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時，正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期，而2020年來信時，也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心，我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信，但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題，以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式，1）100% 控股，任命管理層，可以接受經營的失敗，但對個人不當行爲零容忍；2）投資公開交易","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9554f5da6f4a85a39e4de3d7e0c39a","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ba5642bc044889a6a80a005be93f1e","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11cf8bb6cfdf4ac6934847efb83b6efb","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627213766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650001473,"gmtCreate":1678721278293,"gmtModify":1678721278293,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544220031107044","authorIdStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650001473","repostId":"2319208799","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319208799","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678681611,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319208799?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-13 12:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became \"blood debt\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319208799","media":"观察者网","summary":"3月10日，硅谷银行由美国存款保险公司正式接管，股票停牌。怪不得硅谷被接管前，挤提规模达400多亿美元。与硅谷银行破产有关的任何损失都不会由纳税人承担。其实，硅谷的破产恰恰是美联储无节操放水、直升机撒钱导致美债收益率暴跌、储蓄户存款暴涨造成的。而这个周末的硅谷银行，资产规模2200亿美元，还持有大量的、流动性很好的美债。","content":"<p><html><body><article>I don't know why, but banks in the United States always fail on weekends? Look at Bear Stearns and Lehman in 2008, both of which collapsed over the weekend, and then American regulators,<span>Federal Reserve</span>And the U.S. Treasury. This time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>It's no exception.</p><p>On March 10, Silicon Valley Bank was officially taken over by the American Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the stock was suspended. Silicon Valley Bank was once the fastest growing bank in deposits in the United States. At one time, the annual growth of deposits soared from US $60 billion to US $120 billion, far surpassing Morgan, the largest bank in the United States.</p><p>After the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed used<span>Monetary policy</span>In the fight against the epidemic, household savings deposits once reached about US $1 trillion, and broad money M2 increased by more than 25%. Many people are bullish on U.S. stocks, believing that these huge amounts of idle cash will one day enter the market and become stocks. Obviously, many people forget the principle of double-entry accounting-there must be a loan.</p><p>For a bank like Silicon Valley, with more than 100 billion dollars of deposits, the ledger is full of the largest and bluest venture capital companies and technology upstarts in Silicon Valley, including the Founder's Fund, the godfather of Silicon Valley Peter Thiel. How should it conduct liquidity management? Since the Fed's interest rate is zero, buy the safest in the world<span>Assets</span>-Short-term U.S. debt. You can also eat some interest and earn a little money.</p><p>However, the good times didn't last long. By the end of 2021, U.S. inflation began to soar sharply, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to be out of control, and short-term U.S. bond yields began to rise sharply at the same time, resulting in the plunge in U.S. bonds in 2022, which was the highest in history in 1800 and more than 200 years. Suddenly, the world's safest asset has become the eye of the storm (pictured).</p><p>Picture from the author</p><p>At this moment, the U.S. bond holdings in Silicon Valley Bank's books are beginning to lose money. Even if it hasn't been sold yet, the bookkeeping still needs to be<span>Market price</span>To calculate mark to market. Silicon Valley's market-to-market losses have exceeded its total equity. The rating company did not delay for a moment and began to prepare to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>But deposit interest rates are still close to zero, and the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>I didn't want to be harvested helplessly, so I started to withdraw my bank deposits to buy money funds with a yield close to 4% now. If Silicon Valley Bank raises interest on deposits significantly, it will have less spread income and extra liquidity to pay. At this time, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma.</p><p>Silicon Valley Investment Banks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Seeing this commission opportunity, he began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell part of its U.S. debt portfolio and sell $2.25 billion in stocks to replenish capital. This idea is really rancid: the data forced to disclose during the financing roadshow showed that customers in Silicon Valley were withdrawing money on a large scale, and deposits in Silicon Valley were lost in large quantities. If it weren't for the roadshow disclosure, the market wouldn't have known the details. Now the market thinks that Silicon Valley is about to go bankrupt, and it is accelerating the squeeze, and then there is the scene at the beginning of this article. Since Silicon Valley is a large customer with deposits far exceeding US $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not suitable for the protection clause of the US deposit insurance ceiling of US $250,000.</p><p>Because many other local banks are using similar methods for cash management, they are bound to face the same risks today when the short-term yield of U.S. bonds soars. This also explains why markets are wishful thinking that the Fed will stop rate hike soon. Obviously, the ass determines their heads.</p><p>Of course, now the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must consider the impact on the US banking industry. Uncle Bao has always said recently that we should \"consider the data comprehensively the totality of data \". Last night, the market hid on the short end of U.S. bonds out of safe haven needs, and yields began to fall sharply.</p><p>Many people continue to disagree with the historic inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk. It is impossible to sustain this form. And its twist will surely shatter the sky and the earth. Although the long-term risk is stable, the short-term risk is high. And we need to live past the short term to see the long term.</p><p>\"But this long-term prediction is of no help to the present. In the long run, we are dead early. The job of economists is too easy and useless. When the storm comes, economists can only tell us that the storm will always pass, and then the sea will be calm again.\" -Keynes</p><p><strong>The second Lehman?</strong></p><p>Now, the worry for global markets is: Will Silicon Valley Bank be relieved? Many brick professionals rushed to tell each other that if American supervision did not take action, Silicon Valley would become the second Lehman and bring down the entire American financial system. There is also a request for the Federal Reserve to reopen the gate to print money, although if it is printed again, the US dollar will soon become a ghost coin.</p><p>Before Monday, the market needs to see three rescue measures: 1) Small depositors below $250,000 will be fully paid; 2) Depositors above the deposit insurance ceiling of US $250,000 receive partial reimbursement, and are guaranteed that in the future, depending on the sale and realization of Silicon Valley Bank's assets, these large depositors can receive most of the reimbursement (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four largest banks in the United States take over Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>If these measures can be introduced, or at least most of them can be promised, and a path to defuse Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy can be pointed out, then confidence in the U.S. and indeed global markets will gradually return to normal.</p><p>What's tricky now, however, is that less than 3% of Silicon Valley Bank's depositors have balances below $250,000. Others are big, blue and prosperous Silicon Valley venture capital companies, including Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, Gaorong Capital, etc. Many Silicon Valley companies involve funds ranging from hundreds of millions to billions. No wonder before Silicon Valley was taken over, the squeeze scale reached more than 40 billion US dollars. Under such squeezing pressure, basically no bank can survive.</p><p>If the FDIC U.S. Deposit Insurance Committee can't support it alone, can the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury turn the tide like they did during Bear Stearns and Lehman?</p><p>Unfortunately, U.S. law most likely won't allow it. If the Federal Reserve wants to take action, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of \"systemic risk\"-but the current Silicon Valley is obviously different from the impact of the collapses of Bear Stearns and Lehman. The Fed's intervention must be \"broad-based\", not just to benefit a certain company. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cannot intervene in a bankrupt company that has been taken over. The U.S. Treasury Department can't use money that has not been approved by congressional legislation. Now clever women have no rice.</p><p>Therefore, in the end, it seems that the FDIC still has to carry it alone. Of the measures I proposed above to save Silicon Valley, the first one about small savers is easy to do. The second step of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay off large depositors has begun. It is reported that hedge funds have already offered 60-80% to buy Silicon Valley Bank deposits. If 60-80% of Silicon Valley assets can be realized at this time of crisis, then the price should be higher after the panic in the US market eases. After all, U.S. Treasury Bond trades as much as $650 billion every day. As for the third article, it seems that there is no news yet about big banks taking over.</p><p>(News came out before this article was published: On March 12, local time, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the FDIC issued a joint statement stating that starting from Monday, March 13, depositors can withdraw all their funds. Any losses related to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank None of them will be borne by taxpayers.)</p><p>After VIX implied volatility surged nearly 30% on Friday, sentiment in international markets began to ease, and CFDs in overseas markets even rose slightly. For cryptocurrencies closely related to Silicon Valley, Bitcoin has returned to more than 20,000, and the US dollar stablecoin has returned to around 1 after experiencing a roller coaster market. These digital currencies are the most sensitive to system liquidity. (pictured)</p><p>Picture from the author</p><p>Will the Fed open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley was precisely caused by the Federal Reserve's unscrupulous release of water and helicopter money, which caused the yield of U.S. bonds to plummet and the deposits of savers to skyrocket. If Silicon Valley is used as an excuse to print money again, then the only trace of credit the Federal Reserve has will be gone with the wind.</p><p>When Lehman collapsed that year, its assets reached US $640 billion, and the scale of related derivatives contracts was several trillion dollars. And this weekend, Silicon Valley Bank, with assets of US $220 billion, also holds a large amount of highly liquid U.S. debt.</p><p>If there is any similarity between the two stories, it is that the current chief internal affairs officer of Silicon Valley Bank is the chief financial officer of Lehman back then. One person who single-handedly brought down the two largest banks in the United States is really the Thanos of the American financial system.</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became \"blood debt\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became \"blood debt\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">观察者网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-13 12:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>I don't know why, but banks in the United States always fail on weekends? Look at Bear Stearns and Lehman in 2008, both of which collapsed over the weekend, and then American regulators,<span>Federal Reserve</span>And the U.S. Treasury. This time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>It's no exception.</p><p>On March 10, Silicon Valley Bank was officially taken over by the American Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the stock was suspended. Silicon Valley Bank was once the fastest growing bank in deposits in the United States. At one time, the annual growth of deposits soared from US $60 billion to US $120 billion, far surpassing Morgan, the largest bank in the United States.</p><p>After the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed used<span>Monetary policy</span>In the fight against the epidemic, household savings deposits once reached about US $1 trillion, and broad money M2 increased by more than 25%. Many people are bullish on U.S. stocks, believing that these huge amounts of idle cash will one day enter the market and become stocks. Obviously, many people forget the principle of double-entry accounting-there must be a loan.</p><p>For a bank like Silicon Valley, with more than 100 billion dollars of deposits, the ledger is full of the largest and bluest venture capital companies and technology upstarts in Silicon Valley, including the Founder's Fund, the godfather of Silicon Valley Peter Thiel. How should it conduct liquidity management? Since the Fed's interest rate is zero, buy the safest in the world<span>Assets</span>-Short-term U.S. debt. You can also eat some interest and earn a little money.</p><p>However, the good times didn't last long. By the end of 2021, U.S. inflation began to soar sharply, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to be out of control, and short-term U.S. bond yields began to rise sharply at the same time, resulting in the plunge in U.S. bonds in 2022, which was the highest in history in 1800 and more than 200 years. Suddenly, the world's safest asset has become the eye of the storm (pictured).</p><p>Picture from the author</p><p>At this moment, the U.S. bond holdings in Silicon Valley Bank's books are beginning to lose money. Even if it hasn't been sold yet, the bookkeeping still needs to be<span>Market price</span>To calculate mark to market. Silicon Valley's market-to-market losses have exceeded its total equity. The rating company did not delay for a moment and began to prepare to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>But deposit interest rates are still close to zero, and the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>I didn't want to be harvested helplessly, so I started to withdraw my bank deposits to buy money funds with a yield close to 4% now. If Silicon Valley Bank raises interest on deposits significantly, it will have less spread income and extra liquidity to pay. At this time, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma.</p><p>Silicon Valley Investment Banks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Seeing this commission opportunity, he began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell part of its U.S. debt portfolio and sell $2.25 billion in stocks to replenish capital. This idea is really rancid: the data forced to disclose during the financing roadshow showed that customers in Silicon Valley were withdrawing money on a large scale, and deposits in Silicon Valley were lost in large quantities. If it weren't for the roadshow disclosure, the market wouldn't have known the details. Now the market thinks that Silicon Valley is about to go bankrupt, and it is accelerating the squeeze, and then there is the scene at the beginning of this article. Since Silicon Valley is a large customer with deposits far exceeding US $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not suitable for the protection clause of the US deposit insurance ceiling of US $250,000.</p><p>Because many other local banks are using similar methods for cash management, they are bound to face the same risks today when the short-term yield of U.S. bonds soars. This also explains why markets are wishful thinking that the Fed will stop rate hike soon. Obviously, the ass determines their heads.</p><p>Of course, now the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must consider the impact on the US banking industry. Uncle Bao has always said recently that we should \"consider the data comprehensively the totality of data \". Last night, the market hid on the short end of U.S. bonds out of safe haven needs, and yields began to fall sharply.</p><p>Many people continue to disagree with the historic inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk. It is impossible to sustain this form. And its twist will surely shatter the sky and the earth. Although the long-term risk is stable, the short-term risk is high. And we need to live past the short term to see the long term.</p><p>\"But this long-term prediction is of no help to the present. In the long run, we are dead early. The job of economists is too easy and useless. When the storm comes, economists can only tell us that the storm will always pass, and then the sea will be calm again.\" -Keynes</p><p><strong>The second Lehman?</strong></p><p>Now, the worry for global markets is: Will Silicon Valley Bank be relieved? Many brick professionals rushed to tell each other that if American supervision did not take action, Silicon Valley would become the second Lehman and bring down the entire American financial system. There is also a request for the Federal Reserve to reopen the gate to print money, although if it is printed again, the US dollar will soon become a ghost coin.</p><p>Before Monday, the market needs to see three rescue measures: 1) Small depositors below $250,000 will be fully paid; 2) Depositors above the deposit insurance ceiling of US $250,000 receive partial reimbursement, and are guaranteed that in the future, depending on the sale and realization of Silicon Valley Bank's assets, these large depositors can receive most of the reimbursement (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four largest banks in the United States take over Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>If these measures can be introduced, or at least most of them can be promised, and a path to defuse Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy can be pointed out, then confidence in the U.S. and indeed global markets will gradually return to normal.</p><p>What's tricky now, however, is that less than 3% of Silicon Valley Bank's depositors have balances below $250,000. Others are big, blue and prosperous Silicon Valley venture capital companies, including Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, Gaorong Capital, etc. Many Silicon Valley companies involve funds ranging from hundreds of millions to billions. No wonder before Silicon Valley was taken over, the squeeze scale reached more than 40 billion US dollars. Under such squeezing pressure, basically no bank can survive.</p><p>If the FDIC U.S. Deposit Insurance Committee can't support it alone, can the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury turn the tide like they did during Bear Stearns and Lehman?</p><p>Unfortunately, U.S. law most likely won't allow it. If the Federal Reserve wants to take action, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of \"systemic risk\"-but the current Silicon Valley is obviously different from the impact of the collapses of Bear Stearns and Lehman. The Fed's intervention must be \"broad-based\", not just to benefit a certain company. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cannot intervene in a bankrupt company that has been taken over. The U.S. Treasury Department can't use money that has not been approved by congressional legislation. Now clever women have no rice.</p><p>Therefore, in the end, it seems that the FDIC still has to carry it alone. Of the measures I proposed above to save Silicon Valley, the first one about small savers is easy to do. The second step of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay off large depositors has begun. It is reported that hedge funds have already offered 60-80% to buy Silicon Valley Bank deposits. If 60-80% of Silicon Valley assets can be realized at this time of crisis, then the price should be higher after the panic in the US market eases. After all, U.S. Treasury Bond trades as much as $650 billion every day. As for the third article, it seems that there is no news yet about big banks taking over.</p><p>(News came out before this article was published: On March 12, local time, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the FDIC issued a joint statement stating that starting from Monday, March 13, depositors can withdraw all their funds. Any losses related to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank None of them will be borne by taxpayers.)</p><p>After VIX implied volatility surged nearly 30% on Friday, sentiment in international markets began to ease, and CFDs in overseas markets even rose slightly. For cryptocurrencies closely related to Silicon Valley, Bitcoin has returned to more than 20,000, and the US dollar stablecoin has returned to around 1 after experiencing a roller coaster market. These digital currencies are the most sensitive to system liquidity. (pictured)</p><p>Picture from the author</p><p>Will the Fed open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley was precisely caused by the Federal Reserve's unscrupulous release of water and helicopter money, which caused the yield of U.S. bonds to plummet and the deposits of savers to skyrocket. If Silicon Valley is used as an excuse to print money again, then the only trace of credit the Federal Reserve has will be gone with the wind.</p><p>When Lehman collapsed that year, its assets reached US $640 billion, and the scale of related derivatives contracts was several trillion dollars. And this weekend, Silicon Valley Bank, with assets of US $220 billion, also holds a large amount of highly liquid U.S. debt.</p><p>If there is any similarity between the two stories, it is that the current chief internal affairs officer of Silicon Valley Bank is the chief financial officer of Lehman back then. One person who single-handedly brought down the two largest banks in the United States is really the Thanos of the American financial system.</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202303131235438418d560&s=b\">观察者网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202303131235438418d560&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2319208799","content_text":"不知道为什么，美国的银行总是在周末倒闭？看看2008年的贝尔斯登和雷曼，都是在周末轰然倒下， 然后美国监管部门、美联储和美国财政部介入。这次的硅谷银行也不例外。3月10日，硅谷银行由美国存款保险公司正式接管，股票停牌。硅谷银行曾是美国存款增长最快的银行，一度存款年增长从600亿美元飙升至1200亿美元，远远超过了美国最大的银行极品摩根。2020年新冠疫情之后，美联储用货币政策抗疫，家庭储蓄存款一度达到约10000亿美元，广义货币M2增长超25%。很多人看多美股，认为这些巨量的闲置现金总有一天会入市化身为股票。显然，很多人忘记了会计复式记账原则——有借必有贷。对于像硅谷这样的银行来说，一千多亿美元的存款，账本上全是硅谷最大最蓝的创投公司和科技新贵，包括了硅谷教父Peter Thiel的创始人基金Founder’s Fund，它应该如何进行流动性管理？既然美联储利率是零，那么就都买全世界最安全的资产——短期美债吧。还可以吃点利息，挣点小钱。然而好景不长。到了2021年底，美国通胀开始大幅飙升，美联储货币政策开始拿捏不住，短端美债收益率同时开始大幅上扬，导致了美债2022年的暴跌是1800年、两百多年有史以来之最。突然，全球最安全的资产变成了风暴之眼（如图）。图自作者此刻，硅谷银行账上的美债持仓开始血亏。即便是还没有卖，记账上也需要以市价来计算mark to market。硅谷的市价计价的损失已经超过了其股本总额。评级公司一刻也没有耽误，开始准备下调硅谷银行的评级。但存款利率依然接近零，美国老百姓也不想就这么眼睁睁地被收割，开始把银行存款取出来买现在收益率已经接近4%的货币基金。如果硅谷银行大幅上调存款利息，那么它的利差收入就会减少，还要支付额外的流动性。这时，硅谷发现自己进退维谷。硅谷的投行高盛看到了这个佣金机会，开始建议硅谷卖掉一部分美债组合，同时卖22.5亿美元的股票以补充资本金。这个主意，真是馊得不能再馊：融资路演时被迫披露的数据显示，硅谷的客户在大规模取钱，硅谷的存款大量流失。如果不是路演披露，本来市场并不知道详情。现在市场认为硅谷快破产了，更加速挤提，然后就是本文开头的那一幕。由于硅谷都是大客户，存款远超25万美元，因此硅谷银行95%以上的存款不适应于美国存款保险上限25万美元的保护条款。因为有很多其它地方性银行在使用类似的手段进行现金管理，在美债短端收益率飙升的今天，它们必然面临着同样的风险。这也解释了为什么市场一厢情愿地认为美联储将很快停止加息。显然，屁股决定了他们的脑袋。当然，现在美联储的货币政策必须考虑对于美国银行业的影响。鲍叔最近总是说，要“全面考虑数据 the totality of data”。昨夜，市场出于避险需求躲在美债短端，收益率开始大幅下降。很多人继续对于美债收益率曲线历史性倒挂不以为然。其实，收益率曲线的倒挂就是一种风险的扭曲。这种形态是不可能持续的。而它的扭转，必将天崩地裂。虽然长期风险稳定，但是短端风险的高企。而我们需要活过了短期，才能看到长期。“但这种长期预测对于当下毫无帮助。长期，我们早死了。经济学家这工作太容易了，太无用了。在暴风雨来临之际，经济学家只能告诉我们暴风雨总会过去，之后大海又将重归平静。” ——凯恩斯第二个雷曼？现在，全球市场的担忧在于：硅谷银行是否会被救济？许多砖家奔走相告，称如果美国监管不出手的话，硅谷就会成为第二个雷曼，扳倒整个美国金融系统。还有要求美联储重新开闸印钱，尽管如果再印，美币很快会变成冥币。在周一前，市场需要看到三个救助的措施：1）低于25万美元的小储户得到全额的偿付；2）高于25万美元的存款保险上限的储户获得部分偿付，并保证在未来一段时期内，视乎硅谷银行资产的出售变现情况，这些大储户可以得到大部分的偿付（比如80%）；3）让美国四大银行之一接手硅谷银行。如果可以出台这些措施，或者至少可以承诺大部分措施，并指出化解硅谷银行破产的路径，那么美国乃至全球市场的信心将逐步恢复正常。然而，现在棘手的是，硅谷银行只有不到3%的储户存款余额低于25万美元。其它都是又大又蓝、盛极一时的硅谷创投公司，包括红杉资本、Paradigm、a16z，高榕资本等。很多硅谷公司涉及的资金高达几亿到几十亿不等。怪不得硅谷被接管前，挤提规模达400多亿美元。在这样的挤提压力下，基本没有银行可以存活。如果FDIC美国存款保险委员会独力难支，那么美联储、美国财政部是否能够像当年贝尔斯登、雷曼时期那样力挽狂澜？遗憾的是，美国的法律很可能不允许。如果美联储要出手，硅谷危机必须符合“系统性危机systemic risk”的定义 ——但现在的硅谷显然与当年贝尔斯登、雷曼倒闭的影响不一样。美联储的干预必须是有“广泛基础的broad-based”，而不能仅仅让某个公司受惠。同时，美联储不能干预一个已经被接管了的破产公司。美国财政部也不能使用没有经过国会立法批准的钱，现在巧妇无米。所以，最后看来还是要FDIC一个人扛。我以上提出的拯救硅谷的措施，第一条关于小储户的很容易做到。第二条关于变卖硅谷资产来偿付大储户的步骤已经开始。据闻，已经有对冲基金出价60-80%去买硅谷银行的存款。如果在此危难之际，硅谷资产可以变现60-80%，那么在美国市场恐慌缓和之后，价钱应该会更高。毕竟，美国国债每天交易6500亿美元之多。而第三条关于大银行接手，似乎暂时还没有消息。（本文发稿之前传出消息：当地时间3月12日，美联储、财政部、FDIC发布联合声明称，从3月13日周一开始，储户可以支取他们所有的资金。与硅谷银行破产有关的任何损失都不会由纳税人承担。）在周五VIX隐含波动率飙升近30%之后，国际市场的情绪开始缓和，海外市场差价合约甚至略升。与硅谷密切相关的加密货币，比特币回到两万以上，美元稳定币经历了过山车行情之后，重新回到1附近。这些数字货币对于系统流动性是最敏感的。（如图）图自作者美联储会因为硅谷银行而再次开闸放水吗？其实，硅谷的破产恰恰是美联储无节操放水、直升机撒钱导致美债收益率暴跌、储蓄户存款暴涨造成的。如果再次以硅谷为借口印钱，那么美联储仅有的一丝信用，也将随风而逝。当年雷曼倒闭的时候，资产规模达6400亿美元，关联衍生品合约规模几万亿美元，确有雷霆万钧、一发全身之势。而这个周末的硅谷银行，资产规模2200亿美元，还持有大量的、流动性很好的美债。如果说两个故事有什么雷同之处，那么就是硅谷银行现在的首席内务官是当年雷曼的首席财务官。一个人以一己之力放倒了美国两家最大的银行，真是美国金融系统的灭霸。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SIVB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}