Edwinchua75 personal page - To The Moon

Edwinchua75

Edwinchua75

长期价值投资者

67Follow

19Followers

0Topic

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2025-03-25

$美国超微公司(AMD)$

2024-05-10

$Ryde Group(RYDE)$

2024-04-17

$Ryde Group(RYDE)$

2024-03-28

$Kenvue Inc(KVUE)$

2024-03-27

Tiger BOSS Debit Card - BIG BOSS BASH!

Find out more here:Tiger BOSS Debit Card - BIG BOSS BASH! Grab your friends, win SGD 888*!

Tiger BOSS Debit Card - BIG BOSS BASH!

2024-02-29

$荷美尔(HRL)$

2024-02-28

$美国电话电报(T)$

2023-12-21

$联信银行(CMA)$

2023-12-21

$百思买(BBY)$

2023-12-13

$富兰克林资源(BEN)$

2023-12-13

$美国电话电报(T)$

2023-10-27

$威瑞森(VZ)$

2023-03-14

🥰

2023-02-15

$百思买(BBY)$ [财迷]

2023-01-05

$百思买(BBY)$

2023-01-05

2023-01-04

$富兰克林资源(BEN)$

2023-01-04

$波士顿物产(BXP)$

2022-11-11

$B2Gold Corp Common shares (Canad(BTG)$ [开心]

2022-11-11

$富兰克林资源(BEN)$ 😋

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://tigr.link/74DGdj?utm_campaign=AC1707206667589EduMbB&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;shareID=5ea81d1b84defa3b3f4f65087b8f529b&amp;invite=CWBZNJ&amp;lang=en_NZ&amp;platform=android&amp;utm_source=invite\">Tiger BOSS Debit Card - BIG BOSS BASH!</a> Grab your friends, win SGD 888*!","listText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/74DGdj?utm_campaign=AC1707206667589EduMbB&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;shareID=5ea81d1b84defa3b3f4f65087b8f529b&amp;invite=CWBZNJ&amp;lang=en_NZ&amp;platform=android&amp;utm_source=invite\">Tiger BOSS Debit Card - BIG BOSS BASH!</a> Grab your friends, win SGD 888*!","text":"Find out more here:Tiger BOSS Debit Card - BIG BOSS BASH! Grab your friends, win SGD 888*!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/288639824089424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":279342370590968,"gmtCreate":1709220283696,"gmtModify":1709220286662,"author":{"id":"3555405117779856","authorId":"3555405117779856","name":"Edwinchua75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e138347ffad3b247c9b5856f895df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555405117779856","idStr":"3555405117779856"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HRL\">$荷美尔(HRL)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HRL\">$荷美尔(HRL)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$荷美尔(HRL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/31acb95d2ef76532c7543f54728eca59","width":"588","height":"1072"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/279342370590968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278620663066784,"gmtCreate":1709050394338,"gmtModify":1709050398537,"author":{"id":"3555405117779856","authorId":"3555405117779856","name":"Edwinchua75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e138347ffad3b247c9b5856f895df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555405117779856","idStr":"3555405117779856"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/T\">$美国电话电报(T)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/T\">$美国电话电报(T)$ 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</a>&nbsp;","text":"$联信银行(CMA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2ff9815cccec3c7af71e8d2a9d59679c","width":"588","height":"1072"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254455131635768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":254455144288496,"gmtCreate":1703159573594,"gmtModify":1703165412564,"author":{"id":"3555405117779856","authorId":"3555405117779856","name":"Edwinchua75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e138347ffad3b247c9b5856f895df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555405117779856","idStr":"3555405117779856"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBY\">$百思买(BBY)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBY\">$百思买(BBY)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$百思买(BBY)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2d88dda0fc7db5f45b1e4182b5597081","width":"588","height":"1072"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254455144288496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251408417718488,"gmtCreate":1702416237261,"gmtModify":1702416240314,"author":{"id":"3555405117779856","authorId":"3555405117779856","name":"Edwinchua75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e138347ffad3b247c9b5856f895df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555405117779856","idStr":"3555405117779856"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BEN\">$富兰克林资源(BEN)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BEN\">$富兰克林资源(BEN)$ 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17:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America 'Amazing' Estimates: The Federal Reserve rate hike Seven This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209451307","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Higher wages are good news for workers, but bad news for the Fed. If wages grow too fast, it is expected to push the Fed to rate hike at a faster pace.</p><p>On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that average hourly wages rose 0.7 percent in January from the previous month,<b>The increase over the past 12 months was 5.7 percent, the fastest since March 2007</b>(Except for the first two months of the pandemic).</p><p>There is a growing perception that the Federal Reserve is lagging behind the pace of inflation in policy, which is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years.</p><p>On Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Ethan Harris, head of global economic research, said in a conference call with CNBC:</p><p>If I were chairman of the Fed, I would be more concerned that the factors driving wage increases are not just exceptional circumstances, and raising interest rates earlier in the fall.<b>When there is a widespread price rise that starts to affect wages and the risk of an inflation spiral increases, policy measures fall behind the inflation curve, and the Fed needs to start acting.</b>Harris made his most aggressive appeal to the Federal Reserve this year. The latest report from Bank of America pointed out that,<b>There will be seven rate hike in 2022, 25 basis points each in rate hike, and four more rate hike next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d71f78fb385b6a8eb76748da269eed9\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this regard, Harris pointed out that although the current market view is that this situation is only 18 percent likely, he still supports this view,<b>The main reasons are:</b>the U.S. economic recovery has not only met the Fed's goals, but has even exceeded the stop signs.</p><p>Wages are soaring in nearly all income brackets</p><p>Harris mentioned the new approach to monetary policy approved by the Federal Reserve in September 2020 during the call. Under its flexible average inflation target, the Fed said it would allow inflation to go above its 2% target in order to achieve full employment.</p><p>However, as the inflation rate grew to around 7% and the labor market became increasingly tight, the Federal Reserve now accelerated its \"catch-up\" and changed its monetary policy to cope with the dire inflation situation.</p><p><b>Harris noted that wages are skyrocketing across nearly all income brackets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b81b83224ba1b963bcd13331680628\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The leisure and hospitality sectors, which were hardest hit by the pandemic, saw the biggest wage increases,</b>It's up 13% over the past year. Wages in the financial sector rose 4.8 percent, while those in the retail sector rose 7.1 percent.</p><p>Previously, the article mentioned that the salary increase was \"in full bloom\". In addition to the salary increase of low-and middle-class workers, Wall Street financial institutions also \"chased each other\" to increase employee salaries. Last month, Biden also issued an executive order raising the minimum wage of federal employees to $15.</p><p>Soaring wages are part of the 'Great Resignation Wave'</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Consider the trend of soaring wages as part of the \"Great Resignation Wave,\" which refers to a sharp spike in the number of people leaving jobs in the United States since 2021, with turnover rates at their highest levels in nearly two decades. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, there were 47.4 million U.S. workforce replacements or separations for the full year of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2ef87143df605f0b95c38ef19600a0\" tg-width=\"387\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and David Mericle note in a note that the \"Great Resignation Wave\" includes two distinct but interconnected trends:<b>Millions of workers have left the workforce, and millions more have quit for better, higher-paying jobs. These trends have pushed wage increases to an increasingly worrying level of wage inflation spiraling.</b></p><p>U.S. wage growth will slow this year, but only slightly, and is expected to reach around 5% by this year, according to Goldman Sachs data.<b>It is worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs expects that there will be four rate hike in 2022.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists noted that labor costs are rising faster than the 2% inflation target, which could keep inflation moving higher and the Fed will respond more aggressively.</p><p>rate hike 50 basis points 'reasonable' but at odds with Powell's 'humble' attitude</p><p>Markets have been slowly overweighing the Fed rate hike, with five rate hike expected this year, but there is still a possibility of more rate hike, and at a faster pace. Although traders broadly expect the Fed to rate hike 25 basis points in March, it is not ruled out that the Fed opts for a one-time sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in March<b>, the current probability of 50 basis points in rate hike has risen to nearly 30%.</b></p><p><b>Harris said:</b></p><p>rate hike 50 basis points would be \"a reasonable thing,\" but it is at odds with the \"humble\" attitude that Fed Chairman Powell championed at a press conference after the January FOMC meeting. Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Group's chief economic adviser, told CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday that the Fed has fallen behind in policy, and hopefully they can revive their inflation rhetoric and rein in wage growth. Previously, El-Erian warned in an op-ed that the more delays, the greater the risk of policy tightening. Instead of ensuring a soft landing for the economy, the Fed and ECB may be forced to adopt excessive \"catch-up\" tightening.</p><p>Furthermore, Harris noted,<b>In reality, he doesn't think rate hike will destroy the economy, as long as the Fed sends an accurate message that rate hike aims to control inflation, not curb economic growth.</b></p><p>Harris added that the current rate hike cycle could be similar to the Fed's move in mid-2005, when the Fed had 17 consecutive rate hike aimed at cooling the runaway housing market. Speaking about projecting 11 rate hike by 2023, Harris said:</p><p>This is not a radical forecast, it is just a path of less resistance for a central bank starting from scratch.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America 'Amazing' Estimates: The Federal Reserve rate hike Seven This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America 'Amazing' Estimates: The Federal Reserve rate hike Seven This Year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-08 17:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Higher wages are good news for workers, but bad news for the Fed. If wages grow too fast, it is expected to push the Fed to rate hike at a faster pace.</p><p>On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that average hourly wages rose 0.7 percent in January from the previous month,<b>The increase over the past 12 months was 5.7 percent, the fastest since March 2007</b>(Except for the first two months of the pandemic).</p><p>There is a growing perception that the Federal Reserve is lagging behind the pace of inflation in policy, which is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years.</p><p>On Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Ethan Harris, head of global economic research, said in a conference call with CNBC:</p><p>If I were chairman of the Fed, I would be more concerned that the factors driving wage increases are not just exceptional circumstances, and raising interest rates earlier in the fall.<b>When there is a widespread price rise that starts to affect wages and the risk of an inflation spiral increases, policy measures fall behind the inflation curve, and the Fed needs to start acting.</b>Harris made his most aggressive appeal to the Federal Reserve this year. The latest report from Bank of America pointed out that,<b>There will be seven rate hike in 2022, 25 basis points each in rate hike, and four more rate hike next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d71f78fb385b6a8eb76748da269eed9\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this regard, Harris pointed out that although the current market view is that this situation is only 18 percent likely, he still supports this view,<b>The main reasons are:</b>the U.S. economic recovery has not only met the Fed's goals, but has even exceeded the stop signs.</p><p>Wages are soaring in nearly all income brackets</p><p>Harris mentioned the new approach to monetary policy approved by the Federal Reserve in September 2020 during the call. Under its flexible average inflation target, the Fed said it would allow inflation to go above its 2% target in order to achieve full employment.</p><p>However, as the inflation rate grew to around 7% and the labor market became increasingly tight, the Federal Reserve now accelerated its \"catch-up\" and changed its monetary policy to cope with the dire inflation situation.</p><p><b>Harris noted that wages are skyrocketing across nearly all income brackets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b81b83224ba1b963bcd13331680628\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The leisure and hospitality sectors, which were hardest hit by the pandemic, saw the biggest wage increases,</b>It's up 13% over the past year. Wages in the financial sector rose 4.8 percent, while those in the retail sector rose 7.1 percent.</p><p>Previously, the article mentioned that the salary increase was \"in full bloom\". In addition to the salary increase of low-and middle-class workers, Wall Street financial institutions also \"chased each other\" to increase employee salaries. Last month, Biden also issued an executive order raising the minimum wage of federal employees to $15.</p><p>Soaring wages are part of the 'Great Resignation Wave'</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Consider the trend of soaring wages as part of the \"Great Resignation Wave,\" which refers to a sharp spike in the number of people leaving jobs in the United States since 2021, with turnover rates at their highest levels in nearly two decades. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, there were 47.4 million U.S. workforce replacements or separations for the full year of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2ef87143df605f0b95c38ef19600a0\" tg-width=\"387\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and David Mericle note in a note that the \"Great Resignation Wave\" includes two distinct but interconnected trends:<b>Millions of workers have left the workforce, and millions more have quit for better, higher-paying jobs. These trends have pushed wage increases to an increasingly worrying level of wage inflation spiraling.</b></p><p>U.S. wage growth will slow this year, but only slightly, and is expected to reach around 5% by this year, according to Goldman Sachs data.<b>It is worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs expects that there will be four rate hike in 2022.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists noted that labor costs are rising faster than the 2% inflation target, which could keep inflation moving higher and the Fed will respond more aggressively.</p><p>rate hike 50 basis points 'reasonable' but at odds with Powell's 'humble' attitude</p><p>Markets have been slowly overweighing the Fed rate hike, with five rate hike expected this year, but there is still a possibility of more rate hike, and at a faster pace. Although traders broadly expect the Fed to rate hike 25 basis points in March, it is not ruled out that the Fed opts for a one-time sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in March<b>, the current probability of 50 basis points in rate hike has risen to nearly 30%.</b></p><p><b>Harris said:</b></p><p>rate hike 50 basis points would be \"a reasonable thing,\" but it is at odds with the \"humble\" attitude that Fed Chairman Powell championed at a press conference after the January FOMC meeting. Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Group's chief economic adviser, told CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday that the Fed has fallen behind in policy, and hopefully they can revive their inflation rhetoric and rein in wage growth. Previously, El-Erian warned in an op-ed that the more delays, the greater the risk of policy tightening. Instead of ensuring a soft landing for the economy, the Fed and ECB may be forced to adopt excessive \"catch-up\" tightening.</p><p>Furthermore, Harris noted,<b>In reality, he doesn't think rate hike will destroy the economy, as long as the Fed sends an accurate message that rate hike aims to control inflation, not curb economic growth.</b></p><p>Harris added that the current rate hike cycle could be similar to the Fed's move in mid-2005, when the Fed had 17 consecutive rate hike aimed at cooling the runaway housing market. Speaking about projecting 11 rate hike by 2023, Harris said:</p><p>This is not a radical forecast, it is just a path of less resistance for a central bank starting from scratch.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651382\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651382","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209451307","content_text":"薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7%，这是自2007年3月以来增速最快的一次（疫情初期的两个月除外）。人们越来越多地认为，美联储在政策方面落后于通胀增速，目前美国通胀率正以近40年来最快的速度增长。周一，美国银行全球经济研究部主管Ethan Harris在与CNBC的电话会议中表示：如果我是美联储主席，我会更加担心推动工资上涨的因素不仅仅是例外情况，并在秋天早些时候提高利率。当存在广泛的物价上涨，并开始影响到工资，通胀螺旋风险加大，政策措施就落后于通胀曲线，美联储需要开始行动。Harris对美联储发出了今年以来最激进的呼吁，美银最新报告指出，2022年将有七次加息，每次加息25个基点，明年还会有四次加息。对此，Harris指出，尽管目前市场观点认为这种情况的可能性只有18%，但他依然支持这个观点，主要原因在于：美国经济复苏不仅达到了美联储的目标，甚至还超过了停止线(the stop signs)。几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升Harris在电话会议中提及美联储2020年9月批准的货币政策新方法。美联储表示，在灵活的平均通胀目标下，为了实现充分就业，允许通胀率高于2%的目标。但随着通胀率增长到7%左右，劳动力市场越来越紧张，美联储现在加速“追赶”，改变货币政策进而应对严峻的通胀形势。Harris指出，几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升。受疫情影响最严重的休闲和酒店行业工资增幅最大，在过去一年的上涨了13%。金融行业的工资上涨了4.8%，而零售行业的工资更是上涨了7.1%。此前见闻文章提及，加薪“全面开花”，除了中低阶层工人提高了工资，华尔街金融机构也“你追我赶”地增加员工薪资，拜登上个月还发布了上调联邦雇员的最低工资至15美元的行政命令。工资飙升是“大辞职潮”的一部分高盛将工资飙升这一趋势视为“大辞职潮”的一部分，“大辞职潮”是指2021年以来，美国离职人数陡增，离职率处于近20年来最高水平。根据美国劳工部数据，2021年全年美国劳动力更换或离职次数为4740万人次。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs和David Mericle在一份报告中指出，“大辞职潮”包括两个截然不同但相互关联的趋势：数百万工人离开了劳动力大军，还有数百万人为了更好、更高收入的就业机会而辞职。这些趋势已将工资涨幅推至一个越来越令人担忧的水平，即工资通胀螺旋上升。高盛数据显示，今年美国工资增长将会放缓，但只是小幅放缓，到今年预计会达到5%左右。值得一提的是，高盛预计，2022年将有四次加息。高盛经济学家指出，劳动力成本的增长速度快于2%的通胀目标，这可能会使通胀继续走高，美联储将采取更激进的应对措施。加息50个基点“合理”，但与鲍威尔“谦逊”态度不一致市场一直在缓慢地加码美联储加息，预计今年将有五次加息，但仍有可能加息更多次，而且速度更快。尽管交易员普遍预计美联储将在3月份加息25个基点，但也不排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点，目前加息50个基点的可能性已升至近30%。Harris表示：加息50个基点将是\"一件合理的事情\"，但这与美联储主席鲍威尔在1月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上所支持的\"谦逊\"（humble）态度不一致。安联集团首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian周一在CNBC的Squawk Box节目中表示，美联储政策已经落后，希望他们能重拾通胀论调，控制工资增长。此前，El-Erian在专栏文章中发出警告，越拖延，政策收紧的风险就越大。美联储和欧央行非但不能确保经济软着陆，反而可能被迫采取过度的“追赶性”紧缩政策。此外，Harris指出，实际上，他不认为加息会破坏经济，只要美联储传达出准确的信息，即加息旨在控制通胀，而不是遏制经济增长。Harris补充称，本轮加息周期可能类似于美联储在2005年中期的举措，当时美联储连续17次加息，目的是为失控的房地产市场降温。谈到预计到2023年将加息11次时，Harris表示：这并不是一个激进的预测，对于一个从零开始的央行来说，这只是一条阻力较小的道路。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,"SPY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093630803,"gmtCreate":1643603403130,"gmtModify":1676533835374,"author":{"id":"3555405117779856","authorId":"3555405117779856","name":"Edwinchua75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e138347ffad3b247c9b5856f895df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555405117779856","idStr":"3555405117779856"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😊","listText":"😊","text":"😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093630803","repostId":"1189896486","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348029488,"gmtCreate":1617870598244,"gmtModify":1704704162565,"author":{"id":"3555405117779856","authorId":"3555405117779856","name":"Edwinchua75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e138347ffad3b247c9b5856f895df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555405117779856","idStr":"3555405117779856"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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