HPROHR personal page - To The Moon

HPROHR

HPROHR

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563Follow

43Followers

1Topic

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2024-01-28

$苹果(AAPL)$ OK

2023-11-24

yes, I caught the Anbao

@小虎活动:【感恩節特別活動】紅包大放送，截圖贏好禮！

2023-11-22

OK

@Edward Sawyer:有人疑問，爲什麼阿里股價一直在降低？其實看一下阿里營收和成本的對比你就知道爲什麼了？2012年，營收200億，成本65億,營收是成本的3倍，2923年，營收8686億，成本5496億，營收是成本的1.5倍，如果按照2012年的營收成本比，2023年營收8686億，成本應該是2895億，或者成本是5496億，營收應該是16488億，明顯可以看到阿里的能效比一直在降低，那麼未來阿里會改變嗎？我認爲不能，因爲開始的時候只有電商業務效率非常高，但是後面收購及摸索許多業務，效率非常低，能效比自然就低了，而未來阿里也不可能再出現像電商那樣高效率的業務。既然無法改變，那阿里註定只會大而不強。大沒有用，強才能賺更多。 $阿里巴巴(BABA)$

2023-11-03

Very interesting game, come to play

2023-10-30

Yes

@TigerEvents:Join Tiger's Halloween Fun! Win Big!

2023-10-30

Very interesting game need your figure can play piano

2023-06-27

Ok,ok,ok,ok,ok,ok,ok

2023-06-27

2023-06-25

okok o koki koko kok

2023-06-24

okok o kok o ko kok o kok

2023-06-20

Okokokokokokokokokok

2023-06-10

Yes, come to play, interesting

2023-01-16

Ok

2023-01-15

Ok

2023-01-14

Ok

2023-01-13

OK

2023-01-13

OK

2023-01-12

OK

2023-01-11

OK

2023-01-10

OK

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Anbao","text":"yes, I caught the Anbao","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bcec9f4c2f3926efbc3300ee68b0ed89"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244960056836184","repostId":"244422070988872","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":244422070988872,"gmtCreate":1700710505965,"gmtModify":1700710506018,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a4f89726b3f6319d06a0075bf9ff76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【感恩節特別活動】紅包大放送，截圖贏好禮！","htmlText":"🎉🎁感恩節特別活動來啦！在這個充滿感恩的時刻，小虎代表老虎感謝虎友們長期以來的支持！🙏同時也爲大家準備了一個特別的驚喜互動——紅包、金幣和禮物等等，全部隱藏在一個神祕的GIF截圖裏！動動手指，收穫心動好禮吧！【如何參與】將下方GIF截圖;然後將截圖發送到評論區或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&amp;page=/theme/detail&amp;rndata={&quot;themeId&quot;:&quot;cc29cbdfcd434c3496f29077a135d686&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:0}\" target=\"_blank\">主題</a>&gt;&gt;即可；也歡迎在評論留言，說說2023年你最想感謝的虎友，以及你在本次活動中收穫的（截圖的）獎品（例如 紅包，金幣，禮物）。【活動獎勵】✨截取到紅包🧧，你將獲得價值5美元的股票代金券，爲你的投資之旅增添新的動力；💸抓到金幣🪙，將贏得10虎幣，祝您今後一年財源滾滾來；🐯而第一個抓到禮物🎁的幸運虎友，將贏得一份精美的老虎周邊禮物。【活動時間】即日起 - 11月26日最後再次感謝一直以來的支持和信任！讓我們一起嗨皮地慶祝這個感恩節吧🎈🎊 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎證券(TIGR)$</a>","listText":"🎉🎁感恩節特別活動來啦！在這個充滿感恩的時刻，小虎代表老虎感謝虎友們長期以來的支持！🙏同時也爲大家準備了一個特別的驚喜互動——紅包、金幣和禮物等等，全部隱藏在一個神祕的GIF截圖裏！動動手指，收穫心動好禮吧！【如何參與】將下方GIF截圖;然後將截圖發送到評論區或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&amp;page=/theme/detail&amp;rndata={&quot;themeId&quot;:&quot;cc29cbdfcd434c3496f29077a135d686&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:0}\" target=\"_blank\">主題</a>&gt;&gt;即可；也歡迎在評論留言，說說2023年你最想感謝的虎友，以及你在本次活動中收穫的（截圖的）獎品（例如 紅包，金幣，禮物）。【活動獎勵】✨截取到紅包🧧，你將獲得價值5美元的股票代金券，爲你的投資之旅增添新的動力；💸抓到金幣🪙，將贏得10虎幣，祝您今後一年財源滾滾來；🐯而第一個抓到禮物🎁的幸運虎友，將贏得一份精美的老虎周邊禮物。【活動時間】即日起 - 11月26日最後再次感謝一直以來的支持和信任！讓我們一起嗨皮地慶祝這個感恩節吧🎈🎊 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎證券(TIGR)$</a>","text":"🎉🎁感恩節特別活動來啦！在這個充滿感恩的時刻，小虎代表老虎感謝虎友們長期以來的支持！🙏同時也爲大家準備了一個特別的驚喜互動——紅包、金幣和禮物等等，全部隱藏在一個神祕的GIF截圖裏！動動手指，收穫心動好禮吧！【如何參與】將下方GIF截圖;然後將截圖發送到評論區或者主題>>即可；也歡迎在評論留言，說說2023年你最想感謝的虎友，以及你在本次活動中收穫的（截圖的）獎品（例如 紅包，金幣，禮物）。【活動獎勵】✨截取到紅包🧧，你將獲得價值5美元的股票代金券，爲你的投資之旅增添新的動力；💸抓到金幣🪙，將贏得10虎幣，祝您今後一年財源滾滾來；🐯而第一個抓到禮物🎁的幸運虎友，將贏得一份精美的老虎周邊禮物。【活動時間】即日起 - 11月26日最後再次感謝一直以來的支持和信任！讓我們一起嗨皮地慶祝這個感恩節吧🎈🎊 $老虎證券(TIGR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97df84e065cb5ce752d7b079cc67f532","width":"1080","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244422070988872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":244285241200688,"gmtCreate":1700663848742,"gmtModify":1700663852458,"author":{"id":"3556095495110458","authorId":"3556095495110458","name":"HPROHR","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e61477253ec9d084133f1e56730473f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556095495110458","idStr":"3556095495110458"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244285241200688","repostId":"243869786947632","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":243869786947632,"gmtCreate":1700576184141,"gmtModify":1700576184179,"author":{"id":"10000000000010338","authorId":"10000000000010338","name":"Edward 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data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"有人疑問，爲什麼阿里股價一直在降低？其實看一下阿里營收和成本的對比你就知道爲什麼了？2012年，營收200億，成本65億,營收是成本的3倍，2923年，營收8686億，成本5496億，營收是成本的1.5倍，如果按照2012年的營收成本比，2023年營收8686億，成本應該是2895億，或者成本是5496億，營收應該是16488億，明顯可以看到阿里的能效比一直在降低，那麼未來阿里會改變嗎？我認爲不能，因爲開始的時候只有電商業務效率非常高，但是後面收購及摸索許多業務，效率非常低，能效比自然就低了，而未來阿里也不可能再出現像電商那樣高效率的業務。既然無法改變，那阿里註定只會大而不強。大沒有用，強才能賺更多。 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餘承東用了差不多整場活動一半的時間，發佈了一款名叫AITO問界M5的新能源車。 而就在剛好半年前，餘承東正式成爲華爲智能汽車業務的負責人。他正好打算用AITO這個全新品牌的系列產品，取代那款在門店裏性價比普通、顏值將就、名字一言難盡、銷量沒有爭議大，總之不匹配華爲“高貴”品牌調性的金康賽力斯SF5——儘管兩個車型都是同一個工廠的兒子。 據說，當天賽力斯董事長其實也在現場，但餘承東在發佈會上從頭到尾都沒怎麼提到小康或者賽力斯的名字。 整個夜晚，餘承東都在強調AITO的華爲屬性——華爲參與設計、製造、品牌、銷售。以至於人們都忘了，這其實是小康在20天前已經發布過的一個品牌。而在12月3日的那場AITO品牌“自己”的發佈會上，賽力斯方面將12月23日這一天，定爲第一款車型的“發售日”。 如今誰還記得賽力斯自己的發佈會呢？ 餘承東大概是對的。人們總是隻需要也只會記住一場發佈會。如果沒有華爲，AITO大概什麼也不會是。它只會是小康的SUV，甚至都不會是賽力斯。 再到後來，餘承東和屬於他的華爲終端就成爲了AITO的產品發佈官。 M5四驅新車型，在華爲的春季發佈會上亮相；M7車型，餘承東在行業論壇上親自對媒體透露的，還順便預定了一個“餘氏熱搜”——新車型要吊打“埃爾法凌志版”等百萬豪車，而在一旁的何小鵬表示要朝他“扔鞋”。 大概雷軍看到這新聞，滿腦子也是自己青春時的影子。 其實不只是何小鵬，估計雷克薩斯的車主聽了如此“坦誠”的雅稱，大概也想上去衆籌幾雙尖根的高跟鞋。 而那天M7車型的整個造型頁面，就“很巧”地出現在了AITO官網上。當然，車主們熱切期盼的“華爲”標誌是不會出現的；但效果正在無限接近，新車型的屁股尾巴去掉了“金康”——這大概也是受了最近淘寶店熱銷的“賽力斯","listText":"2021年12月23日，華爲冬季新品發佈會。如果華爲要在歷史上給汽車事業一個名目的話，這天應該就算是華爲的“汽車日”。 餘承東用了差不多整場活動一半的時間，發佈了一款名叫AITO問界M5的新能源車。 而就在剛好半年前，餘承東正式成爲華爲智能汽車業務的負責人。他正好打算用AITO這個全新品牌的系列產品，取代那款在門店裏性價比普通、顏值將就、名字一言難盡、銷量沒有爭議大，總之不匹配華爲“高貴”品牌調性的金康賽力斯SF5——儘管兩個車型都是同一個工廠的兒子。 據說，當天賽力斯董事長其實也在現場，但餘承東在發佈會上從頭到尾都沒怎麼提到小康或者賽力斯的名字。 整個夜晚，餘承東都在強調AITO的華爲屬性——華爲參與設計、製造、品牌、銷售。以至於人們都忘了，這其實是小康在20天前已經發布過的一個品牌。而在12月3日的那場AITO品牌“自己”的發佈會上，賽力斯方面將12月23日這一天，定爲第一款車型的“發售日”。 如今誰還記得賽力斯自己的發佈會呢？ 餘承東大概是對的。人們總是隻需要也只會記住一場發佈會。如果沒有華爲，AITO大概什麼也不會是。它只會是小康的SUV，甚至都不會是賽力斯。 再到後來，餘承東和屬於他的華爲終端就成爲了AITO的產品發佈官。 M5四驅新車型，在華爲的春季發佈會上亮相；M7車型，餘承東在行業論壇上親自對媒體透露的，還順便預定了一個“餘氏熱搜”——新車型要吊打“埃爾法凌志版”等百萬豪車，而在一旁的何小鵬表示要朝他“扔鞋”。 大概雷軍看到這新聞，滿腦子也是自己青春時的影子。 其實不只是何小鵬，估計雷克薩斯的車主聽了如此“坦誠”的雅稱，大概也想上去衆籌幾雙尖根的高跟鞋。 而那天M7車型的整個造型頁面，就“很巧”地出現在了AITO官網上。當然，車主們熱切期盼的“華爲”標誌是不會出現的；但效果正在無限接近，新車型的屁股尾巴去掉了“金康”——這大概也是受了最近淘寶店熱銷的“賽力斯","text":"2021年12月23日，華爲冬季新品發佈會。如果華爲要在歷史上給汽車事業一個名目的話，這天應該就算是華爲的“汽車日”。 餘承東用了差不多整場活動一半的時間，發佈了一款名叫AITO問界M5的新能源車。 而就在剛好半年前，餘承東正式成爲華爲智能汽車業務的負責人。他正好打算用AITO這個全新品牌的系列產品，取代那款在門店裏性價比普通、顏值將就、名字一言難盡、銷量沒有爭議大，總之不匹配華爲“高貴”品牌調性的金康賽力斯SF5——儘管兩個車型都是同一個工廠的兒子。 據說，當天賽力斯董事長其實也在現場，但餘承東在發佈會上從頭到尾都沒怎麼提到小康或者賽力斯的名字。 整個夜晚，餘承東都在強調AITO的華爲屬性——華爲參與設計、製造、品牌、銷售。以至於人們都忘了，這其實是小康在20天前已經發布過的一個品牌。而在12月3日的那場AITO品牌“自己”的發佈會上，賽力斯方面將12月23日這一天，定爲第一款車型的“發售日”。 如今誰還記得賽力斯自己的發佈會呢？ 餘承東大概是對的。人們總是隻需要也只會記住一場發佈會。如果沒有華爲，AITO大概什麼也不會是。它只會是小康的SUV，甚至都不會是賽力斯。 再到後來，餘承東和屬於他的華爲終端就成爲了AITO的產品發佈官。 M5四驅新車型，在華爲的春季發佈會上亮相；M7車型，餘承東在行業論壇上親自對媒體透露的，還順便預定了一個“餘氏熱搜”——新車型要吊打“埃爾法凌志版”等百萬豪車，而在一旁的何小鵬表示要朝他“扔鞋”。 大概雷軍看到這新聞，滿腦子也是自己青春時的影子。 其實不只是何小鵬，估計雷克薩斯的車主聽了如此“坦誠”的雅稱，大概也想上去衆籌幾雙尖根的高跟鞋。 而那天M7車型的整個造型頁面，就“很巧”地出現在了AITO官網上。當然，車主們熱切期盼的“華爲”標誌是不會出現的；但效果正在無限接近，新車型的屁股尾巴去掉了“金康”——這大概也是受了最近淘寶店熱銷的“賽力斯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/617167033","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008163815,"gmtCreate":1641390795252,"gmtModify":1676533609204,"author":{"id":"3556095495110458","authorId":"3556095495110458","name":"HPROHR","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e61477253ec9d084133f1e56730473f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556095495110458","authorIdStr":"3556095495110458"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008163815","repostId":"1140184326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140184326","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1641364117,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140184326?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-01-05 14:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储最快将在两个多月后加息！市场会如何布局？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140184326","media":"Wind万得","summary":"如果一切按计划进行，美联储将在两个多月后实施三年来首次加息，一些政策制定者认为此举是必要的。美联储上一次加息是在2018年底，仅仅7个月后，随着经济扩张看起来越来越脆弱，美联储就退出了加息。在2019","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>如果一切按计划进行，美联储将在两个多月后实施三年来首次加息，一些政策制定者认为此举是必要的。</p><p>美联储上一次加息是在2018年底，仅仅7个月后，随着经济扩张看起来越来越脆弱，美联储就退出了加息。在2019年7月美联储拉开降息周期，之后美联储被迫将基准借贷利率一路降至零。</p><p>目前当官员们准备回归更传统的货币政策时，华尔街正在密切关注。新年的第一个交易日表明，市场愿意继续走高。自一个月前美联储表示将转向正常货币政策以来，市场一直处于动荡之中。</p><p>“回顾美联储的历史，你会发现，在经济和市场陷入困境之前，通常会采取多次紧缩措施，”Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆•保尔森(Jim Paulsen)说。</p><p>保尔森预计，美联储会在市场较为平静的情况下首次加息(可能会在3月15日至16日的会议上实施)，因为已经有了很好的信号，而且仍然只会将基准隔夜利率提高到0.25%-0.5%的区间。</p><p>保尔森说:“我们对美联储的这种态度是基于过去几十年经济每年增长2%的情况。”“在一个2%经济增速世界里，如果美联储想要收紧政策，那将是破坏性的。但我们已经不再生活在那个世界了。”</p><p>在去年12月的会议上，美联储官员计划在今年年底前加息三次。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">芝加哥商品交易所</a>(CME)旗下的联邦观察工具(Federal watch Tool)显示，目前联邦基金期货市场的价格走势显示，美联储3月份加息的可能性约为60%，制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open market Committee)在2022年底前再加息两次的可能性为61%。</p><p>美联储上调利率是为了应对通胀压力，从某些方面来看，通胀压力的速度是近40年来最快的。美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)和大多数其他政策制定者在2021年的大部分时间里坚称，价格将很快回落，但在接近年底时承认，这种趋势不再是“暂时的”。</p><p>安联(Allianz)首席经济顾问、Gramercy基金管理公司(Gramercy Fund Management)董事长穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示，美联储能否安排一次“有序回落”，将决定市场对加息的反应。</p><p>穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示，美联储政策正在大举追赶曲线。</p><p>但他表示，危险在于通胀持续甚至超过美联储预期，促使美联储采取更激进的应对措施。</p><p>埃尔-埃利安说:“痛苦已经存在，所以他们必须大力追赶，问题是他们会在什么时候失去追赶勇气。”</p><p>市场资深人士正在关注债券收益率，预计债券收益率将提前暗示美联储的意图。尽管市场预期美国将加息，但收益率基本保持在可控水平，但鲍尔森说，他预计市场的反应最终可能会使基准10年期美国国债收益率今年升至2%左右。</p><p>与此同时，埃尔-埃利安说，他预计即使市场遭遇一些阻力，经济在2022年也会表现相当好。同样，保尔森表示，美国经济目前可以承受加息，而加息将推高众多消费产品的借贷利率。</p><p>联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 12月会议的纪要将于今晚公布，届时投资者将进一步了解美联储的想法。市场特别感兴趣的不仅是有关加息速度和缩减资产购买的决定的讨论，还有央行何时开始缩减资产负债表的讨论。</p><p>尽管美联储打算在春季停止购买债券，但其资产负债表维持在目前8.8万亿美元的水平左右。花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家霍伦霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)预计，美国将在2023年第一季度开始削减资产负债表。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储最快将在两个多月后加息！市场会如何布局？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-05 14:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>如果一切按计划进行，美联储将在两个多月后实施三年来首次加息，一些政策制定者认为此举是必要的。</p><p>美联储上一次加息是在2018年底，仅仅7个月后，随着经济扩张看起来越来越脆弱，美联储就退出了加息。在2019年7月美联储拉开降息周期，之后美联储被迫将基准借贷利率一路降至零。</p><p>目前当官员们准备回归更传统的货币政策时，华尔街正在密切关注。新年的第一个交易日表明，市场愿意继续走高。自一个月前美联储表示将转向正常货币政策以来，市场一直处于动荡之中。</p><p>“回顾美联储的历史，你会发现，在经济和市场陷入困境之前，通常会采取多次紧缩措施，”Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆•保尔森(Jim Paulsen)说。</p><p>保尔森预计，美联储会在市场较为平静的情况下首次加息(可能会在3月15日至16日的会议上实施)，因为已经有了很好的信号，而且仍然只会将基准隔夜利率提高到0.25%-0.5%的区间。</p><p>保尔森说:“我们对美联储的这种态度是基于过去几十年经济每年增长2%的情况。”“在一个2%经济增速世界里，如果美联储想要收紧政策，那将是破坏性的。但我们已经不再生活在那个世界了。”</p><p>在去年12月的会议上，美联储官员计划在今年年底前加息三次。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">芝加哥商品交易所</a>(CME)旗下的联邦观察工具(Federal watch Tool)显示，目前联邦基金期货市场的价格走势显示，美联储3月份加息的可能性约为60%，制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open market Committee)在2022年底前再加息两次的可能性为61%。</p><p>美联储上调利率是为了应对通胀压力，从某些方面来看，通胀压力的速度是近40年来最快的。美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)和大多数其他政策制定者在2021年的大部分时间里坚称，价格将很快回落，但在接近年底时承认，这种趋势不再是“暂时的”。</p><p>安联(Allianz)首席经济顾问、Gramercy基金管理公司(Gramercy Fund Management)董事长穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示，美联储能否安排一次“有序回落”，将决定市场对加息的反应。</p><p>穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示，美联储政策正在大举追赶曲线。</p><p>但他表示，危险在于通胀持续甚至超过美联储预期，促使美联储采取更激进的应对措施。</p><p>埃尔-埃利安说:“痛苦已经存在，所以他们必须大力追赶，问题是他们会在什么时候失去追赶勇气。”</p><p>市场资深人士正在关注债券收益率，预计债券收益率将提前暗示美联储的意图。尽管市场预期美国将加息，但收益率基本保持在可控水平，但鲍尔森说，他预计市场的反应最终可能会使基准10年期美国国债收益率今年升至2%左右。</p><p>与此同时，埃尔-埃利安说，他预计即使市场遭遇一些阻力，经济在2022年也会表现相当好。同样，保尔森表示，美国经济目前可以承受加息，而加息将推高众多消费产品的借贷利率。</p><p>联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 12月会议的纪要将于今晚公布，届时投资者将进一步了解美联储的想法。市场特别感兴趣的不仅是有关加息速度和缩减资产购买的决定的讨论，还有央行何时开始缩减资产负债表的讨论。</p><p>尽管美联储打算在春季停止购买债券，但其资产负债表维持在目前8.8万亿美元的水平左右。花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家霍伦霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)预计，美国将在2023年第一季度开始削减资产负债表。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140184326","content_text":"如果一切按计划进行，美联储将在两个多月后实施三年来首次加息，一些政策制定者认为此举是必要的。美联储上一次加息是在2018年底，仅仅7个月后，随着经济扩张看起来越来越脆弱，美联储就退出了加息。在2019年7月美联储拉开降息周期，之后美联储被迫将基准借贷利率一路降至零。目前当官员们准备回归更传统的货币政策时，华尔街正在密切关注。新年的第一个交易日表明，市场愿意继续走高。自一个月前美联储表示将转向正常货币政策以来，市场一直处于动荡之中。“回顾美联储的历史，你会发现，在经济和市场陷入困境之前，通常会采取多次紧缩措施，”Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆•保尔森(Jim Paulsen)说。保尔森预计，美联储会在市场较为平静的情况下首次加息(可能会在3月15日至16日的会议上实施)，因为已经有了很好的信号，而且仍然只会将基准隔夜利率提高到0.25%-0.5%的区间。保尔森说:“我们对美联储的这种态度是基于过去几十年经济每年增长2%的情况。”“在一个2%经济增速世界里，如果美联储想要收紧政策，那将是破坏性的。但我们已经不再生活在那个世界了。”在去年12月的会议上，美联储官员计划在今年年底前加息三次。芝加哥商品交易所(CME)旗下的联邦观察工具(Federal watch Tool)显示，目前联邦基金期货市场的价格走势显示，美联储3月份加息的可能性约为60%，制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open market Committee)在2022年底前再加息两次的可能性为61%。美联储上调利率是为了应对通胀压力，从某些方面来看，通胀压力的速度是近40年来最快的。美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)和大多数其他政策制定者在2021年的大部分时间里坚称，价格将很快回落，但在接近年底时承认，这种趋势不再是“暂时的”。安联(Allianz)首席经济顾问、Gramercy基金管理公司(Gramercy Fund Management)董事长穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示，美联储能否安排一次“有序回落”，将决定市场对加息的反应。穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示，美联储政策正在大举追赶曲线。但他表示，危险在于通胀持续甚至超过美联储预期，促使美联储采取更激进的应对措施。埃尔-埃利安说:“痛苦已经存在，所以他们必须大力追赶，问题是他们会在什么时候失去追赶勇气。”市场资深人士正在关注债券收益率，预计债券收益率将提前暗示美联储的意图。尽管市场预期美国将加息，但收益率基本保持在可控水平，但鲍尔森说，他预计市场的反应最终可能会使基准10年期美国国债收益率今年升至2%左右。与此同时，埃尔-埃利安说，他预计即使市场遭遇一些阻力，经济在2022年也会表现相当好。同样，保尔森表示，美国经济目前可以承受加息，而加息将推高众多消费产品的借贷利率。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 12月会议的纪要将于今晚公布，届时投资者将进一步了解美联储的想法。市场特别感兴趣的不仅是有关加息速度和缩减资产购买的决定的讨论，还有央行何时开始缩减资产负债表的讨论。尽管美联储打算在春季停止购买债券，但其资产负债表维持在目前8.8万亿美元的水平左右。花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家霍伦霍斯特(Andrew 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