$TSLA - UBS ANALYST JOSEPH SPAK REITERATED A SELL RATING AND $225.00 PRICE TARGET ON TESLA 🔸 Caution: Expect negative 2025 revisions. 🔸 1Q25 deliveries: 336.7k (-32% q/q, -13% y/y), missing consensus (377.6k) by 11% and buy-side estimates (~355-360k) by ~6%. 🔸 Production: 362.6k (-21% q/q, -16% y/y), impacted by Model Y changeover. 🔸 Inventory proxy: 124k units (~28 days on hand), up from 15 last quarter. 🔸 2025 outlook: Consensus at 1.85M (+4% y/y), UBS at 1.7M (-5% y/y). 🔸 Challenges: TSLA needs ~8% y/y growth for 1.85M target; even 1.6M requires 2Q-4Q25 deliveries to rise 25% vs. 1Q25.

CHINA-US NEGOTIATIONS LIKELY SOON- CHINESE ADVISORS Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are likely to start soon given President Donald Trump's penchant for dealmaking, but a quick settlement looks difficult, with China calculating that the U.S. position will be weakened by a deterioration of its economy and markets, Chinese policy advisors told MNI.

TARIFF FRENZY SETS UP CRITICAL POWELL SPEECH Friday remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell have been on the calendar for weeks, but they take on a new urgency after President Trump's tariff announcement shocked investors and business leaders. The speech "will now be ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT POWELL SPEECHES IN THREE YEARS," Andy Brenner of NatAlliance Securities writes to clients. In his most recent comments, Powell has said that monetary policy is still in a restrictive stance, a "good place" given that inflation remains above the Fed's target. Tariffs could threaten both sides of the Fed's dual mandate, however, by increasing inflation pressure while also damping economic growth and the labor market. Powell is scheduled to speak at 11:25 a.m. ET Friday.

Trump unveiled his tariff plan today, with a baseline tariff of 10%, and much higher tariffs on countries with higher tariffs against the U.S. Tariffs on China imports were set at 34%, the E.U. 20%, Japan 24%, India 26%, and Mexico and Canada 25%. Auto imports will go to 25% effective immediately. Taken together, the tariffs were a worst case scenario, with markets responding accordingly after hours as fears of global recession rise, with SPX futures -1.8%, NDX -2.6%, and $TSLA -5.2%.

CHINA 🇨🇳 URGES US 🇺🇸 TO ‘IMMEDIATELY’ CANCEL RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, VOWS COUNTER-MEASURES - CNBC

the worst part about the tariff announcement today is that these numbers don’t make sense the rates they are using to calculate the 50% half-rate we charge back at each country include “currency manipulation and trade barriers” currency manipulation includes FX headwinds which literally can change by the day the EU is not charging us 39% across the board… how did they come up with these numbers? where is the logic here? the market wanted 10%, 15%, 20% buckets — that was priced in not these made up numbers to calculate reciprocal rates…

NEWS: Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas believes $TSLA sentiment could have just bottomed after Tesla's Q1 delivery report. "We believe the challenges facing Tesla's current business are widely reported and well known, while the opportunities in the future business are potentially greatly underestimated."

$TSLA - 'MUSK NEEDS TO GET HIS ACT TOGETHER OR ELSE UNFORTUNATELY DARKER TIMES ARE AHEAD FOR TESLA' - WEDBUSH "Autonomous remains the biggest transformation to the auto industry in modern-day history and in our view, Tesla will own the autonomous market in the US and globally with the launch of unsupervised FSD in Austin kicking off the autonomous era at Tesla that we value at $1 trillion alone on a sum-of-the-parts valuation....BUT...Musk needs to stop this political firestorm and balance being CEO of Tesla with DOGE. The future is so bright but this is a full blown crisis Tesla is navigating now and its primarily self-inflected. We remain firmly bullish on the long-term Tesla story but Musk needs to get his act together or else unfortunately darker times are ahead for Tesla.

Tesla is supposed to start production of more affordable vehicle models this quarter, according to their most recent earnings report: "Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up."

$TSLA 1Q delivs 336.7K -13% YoY and well below WS estimates of 377K. This will push analysts to reduce FY’25 deliv estimates (currently 1,869K +4.5% YoY) and FY’25 earnings ests (currently $2.73 +12.8% YoY) as the debate intensifies whether the 1Q miss was due to Elon’s political rhetoric and DOGE actions vs consumers delaying purchase of Model Y so they could get the new refreshed version. As we mentioned this morning in our preview: “There will be huge debate today about whether the likely 1Q delivery miss was due to Elon’s ongoing political rhetoric and DOGE activities, or the changeover to the New Model Y, which caused consumers to hold off purchases until the new version arrived. Europe 1Q delivs were down -35% YoY, with France and Germany -40% and -60% YoY respectively, while China d

NEWS: Tesla deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage in Q1 2025, up 156% YoY and their second best quarter ever. Tesla's new Megapack factory in Shanghai only started ramping production in the middle of the quarter, so energy storage deployments will continue to grow.

$TSLA TESLA DELIVERIES +336K VS +360K EXPECTED ENERGY DEPLOYED 10.4 GWh UP 157% YoY

NEWS: Rivian delivered 8,640 vehicles in Q1 2025, down -36% YoY, in-line with expectations. The company produced a total of 14,611 vehicles in the same period. Rivian is also reaffirming its 2025 delivery range guidance of 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles.

CONSUMER 🔸 $SPWH Q4 adj. EPS $0.04 (est. -$0.06) on revs $340.4M (est. $329.6M), comps -0.5%. Expects positive comps in 2025; sees FY net sales -1% to +3.5% (est. +0.4%). 🔸 $TSLA sold 78,828 China-made EVs in March (-11.5% YoY); Model 3/Y deliveries +156.9% MoM. ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS 🔸 Oil dips amid tariff, sanction concerns; OPEC+ supply and mixed policies add downside risks. 🔸 $BHP considers spinning off Australian iron ore & coal units. 🔸 $ED files debt securities shelf. 🔸 $SMG upgraded to Buy at Truist. FINANCIALS 🔸 $OZK raises dividend 2.38% to $0.43/share. 🔸 $SCHW upgraded to Buy at Citi, PT raised to $102 (from $85). 🔸 $SMA prices 27M-share offering at $30.00. 🔸 $V offers AAPL ~$100M for Apple Card deal (WSJ). HEALTHCARE 🔸 $ANGO Q3 adj. EPS -$0.08 (est. -$0.13) on

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S LIBERATION DAY SCHEDULE – APRIL 2, 2025 Advancing American Prosperity Through Strategic Trade Policy 🔸 9:00 AM ET: President Trump convenes with his expert trade council to finalize the transformative tariff initiative. 🔸 11:30 AM ET: Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt previews the historic announcement. 🔸 4:00 PM ET: Rose Garden Address – President Trump unveils bold reciprocal tariffs, restoring fairness to U.S. trade. 🔸 4:30 PM ET: The President engages with media, followed by an official photo session. 🔸 6:00 PM ET: Administration officials brief industry leaders on implementation, ensuring seamless execution. 🔸 8:00 PM ET: Global markets respond as the impact of America’s renewed strength takes hold.

Tesla is expected to deliver approximately 377,592 vehicles for Q1’2025. Many analysts have since revised their expectations down to 345-355k vehicles due to increased competition, production adjustments that had to be made for the Model Y refresh, and consumer sentiment being down. If $TSLA beats these delivery estimates then we should expect a break of 293 which has been a big resistance. The 293 break should move $TSLA to 325 especially if the overall momentum of the market is to the upside. BUT WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY MISS by over 20%? The 218 support level will very likely break and we can see a flush to 183. This would also break $SPX local low it formed this week at 5488. If $TSLA meets expectations we should still see a drop but to 239 which would get bought up within 2-3 days. Regard

$QQQ Chart update: If this bear flag is true, a measured move implies all the way down to $430ish (which is coincidentally where the Yenmeggedon lows are). But I will be more conservative and say a some upside reprieve to retest the bear flag breakdown area before next leg lower towards $450 major support.

Jim Cramer just said on CNBC: "A 20% across-the-board tariff on almost all imports, that would be horrendous for the economy"

BREAKING: The Atlanta Fed updates their Q1 2025 GDP outlook and they are now projecting NEGATIVE -3.7% growth. Two weeks ago they were projecting -1.5%. Last week they raised it to -2.8%. Today, we get -3.7%. If you adjust for gold imports and exports, they still see a -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025. Much of why this happened was because of companies front running the tariffs and loading up in Q4 which is why imports are down so much in Q1, but if these projections are right, we may have the first negative GDP quarter in over 2 years.

Stocks hit hard, but should they be off this much?? $NVDA on sale -29% $PLTR on sale -32% $HOOD on sale -38% $TSLA on sale -47% $AMD on sale -55% Is this opportunity????