猫咪b personal page - To The Moon

猫咪b

猫咪b

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2021-09-01

Will up continuously????

2021-08-25

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$when can break even?

2021-05-25

........

2021-05-21

Agreed

The United States requires cryptocurrency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS.

2021-05-20

Someone manipulate the market????

US stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being heavily sold off, and the Federal Reserve minutes will be released.

2021-05-07

Rich ppl will do.....

After the public opinion storm, who is still buying Teslas?

2021-05-07

I'm strongly agree...

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-07

I strongly agree.....

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-03

Really???

How long will the global chip shortage last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022

2021-05-02

.....

Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?

2021-03-26

Keep dropping??

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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up continuously????","listText":"Will up continuously????","text":"Will up continuously????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6d60b554fc381f41f27c2966fbeda3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816282654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837280856,"gmtCreate":1629893344275,"gmtModify":1676530164128,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$when can break 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00:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The United States requires cryptocurrency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127507761","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。","content":"<p>The U.S. Treasury Department said the Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include requiring the Internal Revenue Service to report cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000.</p><p>“Similar to cash transactions, companies that acquire cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value exceeding $10,000 will also be required to report,” the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department stated that comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize incentives and opportunities to shift revenue away from the new information reporting system, even though cryptocurrencies only account for a small portion of current commercial transactions. In 2020, the IRS added a line about cryptocurrencies to its personal tax return 1040 to provide more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell by about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000 per coin. US Blockchain stocks declined in the short term, with Coinbase's gains narrowing to 2.4%, The9 City's gains narrowing to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowing to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain falling by more than 1%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States requires cryptocurrency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States requires cryptocurrency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-21 00:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. Treasury Department said the Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include requiring the Internal Revenue Service to report cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000.</p><p>“Similar to cash transactions, companies that acquire cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value exceeding $10,000 will also be required to report,” the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department stated that comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize incentives and opportunities to shift revenue away from the new information reporting system, even though cryptocurrencies only account for a small portion of current commercial transactions. In 2020, the IRS added a line about cryptocurrencies to its personal tax return 1040 to provide more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell by about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000 per coin. US Blockchain stocks declined in the short term, with Coinbase's gains narrowing to 2.4%, The9 City's gains narrowing to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowing to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain falling by more than 1%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127507761","content_text":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。美国国税局于2020年在个人纳税申报单1040中增加了一行关于加密货币的内容，以获得更多关于虚拟货币交易的信息。比特币短线走低约600美元，现跌破41000美元/枚。美股区块链板块短线走低，Coinbase涨幅缩窄至2.4%，第九城市涨幅收窄至1.7%，嘉楠科技涨幅收窄至1.17%，Riot Blockchain跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197845101,"gmtCreate":1621447089203,"gmtModify":1704357793908,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Someone manipulate the market????","listText":"Someone manipulate the market????","text":"Someone manipulate the market????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197845101","repostId":"1152189230","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152189230","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1621437443,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152189230?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being heavily sold off, and the Federal Reserve minutes will be released.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152189230","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股周三与大宗商品、欧洲股市和比特币一道下跌，因投资者风险偏好减弱。\n标准普尔500指数下跌1.3%，道琼斯工业指数下跌1.1%，主要股指延续近期跌势。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.7%，科技股在股市开盘后","content":"<p>U.S. stocks fell along with commodities, European stocks, and Bitcoin on Wednesday as investor risk appetite weakened.</p><p>The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%, as major stock indexes continued their recent decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.7%, and technology stocks fell after the stock market opened. The commodity market also experienced a decline. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the main U.S. crude oil commodity, fell 2.2% to $64.05 a barrel.</p><p>Investors turned to less risky assets such as bonds, causing the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield to fall to 1.639% from 1.641% on Tuesday. When bond prices rise, yields fall.</p><p>The stock market has surged since March 2020, partly due to the Federal Reserve's support for the market and economy since the early days of the pandemic. Now, the accelerating pace of inflation has led some investors to doubt whether the Federal Reserve will scale back its bond purchases and raise interest rates. Although Federal Reserve officials have stated that the economy is still in recovery mode and requires stimulus measures from the Fed, this outlook has caused volatility in stock markets and other high-risk assets in recent weeks.</p><p>Nadège Dufossé, head of cross-asset strategy at Candriam, said the key driver now is the central bank. The Federal Reserve is expected to delay providing guidance on tapering its stimulus program until September, when the data should provide a clearer picture of the inflation outlook. Dufossé said the stock market could be volatile and there could be a 10% correction. The S&P 500 closed just 2.5% below its all-time high on Tuesday, despite declines in five of the past seven trading days.</p><p>According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin has fallen 21% to $34,371.18 since 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, indicating that investors are withdrawing from the large number of speculative bets that have emerged this year. This is the lowest price since February of this year. This also means that in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After announcing it would purchase $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has erased all gains. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $64,829 in mid-April.</p><p>Investors will look for clues about the Federal Reserve's thinking in the minutes of its April meeting, which will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Officials unanimously voted to maintain the Federal Reserve's policies aimed at lowering borrowing costs, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stating that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete.</p><p>Since then, data has shown that inflation rose sharply in April, triggering unease in the stock market. Technology stocks are beneficiaries of low interest rates because their earnings are expected to last for a long time and are particularly sensitive to the prospect of rising borrowing costs.</p><p>Paul Jackson, head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said, \"The market has some concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential actions in tapering its asset purchase program in the coming months and quarters.\" “The U.S. economy is rebounding very, very strongly,” Jackson said. “This in itself should make Jackson feel more comfortable because he doesn’t need to provide as much support as he does now.”</p><p>In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.9%, dragged down by sectors such as basic resources, oil and gas, and technology stocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being heavily sold off, and the Federal Reserve minutes will be released.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being heavily sold off, and the Federal Reserve minutes will be released.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-19 23:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell along with commodities, European stocks, and Bitcoin on Wednesday as investor risk appetite weakened.</p><p>The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%, as major stock indexes continued their recent decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.7%, and technology stocks fell after the stock market opened. The commodity market also experienced a decline. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the main U.S. crude oil commodity, fell 2.2% to $64.05 a barrel.</p><p>Investors turned to less risky assets such as bonds, causing the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield to fall to 1.639% from 1.641% on Tuesday. When bond prices rise, yields fall.</p><p>The stock market has surged since March 2020, partly due to the Federal Reserve's support for the market and economy since the early days of the pandemic. Now, the accelerating pace of inflation has led some investors to doubt whether the Federal Reserve will scale back its bond purchases and raise interest rates. Although Federal Reserve officials have stated that the economy is still in recovery mode and requires stimulus measures from the Fed, this outlook has caused volatility in stock markets and other high-risk assets in recent weeks.</p><p>Nadège Dufossé, head of cross-asset strategy at Candriam, said the key driver now is the central bank. The Federal Reserve is expected to delay providing guidance on tapering its stimulus program until September, when the data should provide a clearer picture of the inflation outlook. Dufossé said the stock market could be volatile and there could be a 10% correction. The S&P 500 closed just 2.5% below its all-time high on Tuesday, despite declines in five of the past seven trading days.</p><p>According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin has fallen 21% to $34,371.18 since 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, indicating that investors are withdrawing from the large number of speculative bets that have emerged this year. This is the lowest price since February of this year. This also means that in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After announcing it would purchase $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has erased all gains. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $64,829 in mid-April.</p><p>Investors will look for clues about the Federal Reserve's thinking in the minutes of its April meeting, which will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Officials unanimously voted to maintain the Federal Reserve's policies aimed at lowering borrowing costs, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stating that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete.</p><p>Since then, data has shown that inflation rose sharply in April, triggering unease in the stock market. Technology stocks are beneficiaries of low interest rates because their earnings are expected to last for a long time and are particularly sensitive to the prospect of rising borrowing costs.</p><p>Paul Jackson, head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said, \"The market has some concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential actions in tapering its asset purchase program in the coming months and quarters.\" “The U.S. economy is rebounding very, very strongly,” Jackson said. “This in itself should make Jackson feel more comfortable because he doesn’t need to provide as much support as he does now.”</p><p>In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.9%, dragged down by sectors such as basic resources, oil and gas, and technology stocks.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","CAN":"嘉楠科技","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","EBON":"亿邦国际","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152189230","content_text":"美股周三与大宗商品、欧洲股市和比特币一道下跌，因投资者风险偏好减弱。\n标准普尔500指数下跌1.3%，道琼斯工业指数下跌1.1%，主要股指延续近期跌势。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.7%，科技股在股市开盘后下跌。大宗商品市场也出现回落。美国主要原油品种西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)期货价格下跌2.2%，至每桶64.05美元。\n投资者转向债券等风险较小的资产避险，致使10年期美国国债收益率从周二的1.641%降至1.639%。当债券价格上涨时，收益率会下降。\n股市自2020年3月以来一路飙升，部分原因是美联储自疫情爆发初期以来对市场和经济支持。现在，通胀步伐加快让一些投资者开始怀疑，美联储是否会缩减债券购买规模并提高利率。尽管美联储官员曾表示，经济仍处于复苏模式，需要美联储采取刺激措施，但这一前景已导致股市和其他高风险资产近几周出现震荡。\nCandriam跨资产策略主管Nadège Dufossé表示，现在关键推动因素是央行。预计美联储将推迟到9月份才提供有关缩减刺激计划指引，届时数据应能更清晰地展现通胀前景。Dufossé说，股市可能会波动，可能会出现10%回调。标普500指数周二收盘仅比历史高点低2.5%，尽管过去七个交易日中有五个交易日下跌。\n据CoinDesk数据，自美国东部时间周二下午5点以来，比特币已下跌21%，至34371.18美元，这表明投资者正在从今年大量出现的投机押注中撤出。这是今年2月以来最低价格。这也意味着，在特斯拉宣布将购买价值15亿美元的加密货币之后，比特币已经抹去所有涨幅。自4月中旬创下64829美元历史高点以来，比特币已经跌逾50%。\n投资者将在美国东部时间下午2点公布的4月会议纪要中寻找有关美联储想法的线索。官员们一致投票决定维持美联储旨在压低借贷成本的政策，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，复苏仍不均衡且不完整。\n自那以来，数据显示4月份通胀率大幅上升，引发了股市不安。科技股是低利率受益者，因为其收益预计会延续很长一段时间，对借贷成本上升前景特别敏感。\nInvesco资产配置研究主管Paul Jackson表示，\"市场对美联储未来几个月和几个季度在缩减资产购买计划方面可能采取的行动有些担忧。\" “美国经济正在非常、非常强劲地反弹，”杰克逊说。“这本身应该会让Jackson感到更舒服，因为它不需要提供像现在这样多的支持。”\n欧洲方面，斯托克欧洲600指数(Stoxx Europe 600)下跌1.9%，受基础资源、油气和科技股等板块拖累。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"EBON":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104295263,"gmtCreate":1620391956952,"gmtModify":1704342994695,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rich ppl will do.....","listText":"Rich ppl will do.....","text":"Rich ppl will do.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104295263","repostId":"1174893125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174893125","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"既有深度，又有响度，研究古典互联网。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"深响","id":"1038713350","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d"},"pubTimestamp":1620383316,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174893125?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 18:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"After the public opinion storm, who is still buying Teslas?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174893125","media":"深响","summary":"特斯拉的潜在客户会因为此次事件远离它吗？","content":"<p>The Tesla rights protection case, which has been on hold for an extremely long time, has made new progress.</p><p>Recently, Ms. Zhang, a Tesla owner in Anyang, Henan Province, issued a statement saying that some false statements made by Tesla and Tesla's Vice President of External Affairs, Tao Lin, without any evidence, have had a serious impact on her personal and family work and life. In response, she has filed a civil complaint with the court against Tesla and Tao Lin.</p><p>After sparking a \"public opinion storm,\" most people are waiting to see Tesla's \"joke.\" After all, there had been precedents before. In 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales declined sharply due to the \"oil scandal\". In the first half of 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales fell by 13.4%. At that time, total automobile sales in the Chinese market maintained a year-on-year growth of 4%, and Dongfeng Honda was one of the few automakers whose sales declined. In 2018, Honda's CR-V sales halved, dragging down Dongfeng Honda's overall sales by 4.1% year-on-year.</p><p>However, prior to this, Tesla had just delivered an impressive \"report card\". In Q1 2021, Tesla's total deliveries reached 185,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%, setting a new record. Revenue was $10.389 billion, a year-over-year increase of 73.6%; The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of RMB 1.052 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 363.4%.</p><p>In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market, three times that of the same period last year, accounting for nearly 37% of global sales. Revenue in China reached $3.043 billion, a significant increase of 238% compared to $900 million in the same period last year, accounting for 29.3% of Tesla's revenue in the first quarter. The Chinese market remains Tesla's second-largest global market, but its size has further shrunk compared to the US market.</p><p>Will Tesla's potential customers stay away from it because of this incident? With these questions in mind, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores.</p><p><b>The number of customers entering the store will not decrease</b></p><p>Since entering the Chinese market, Tesla has been attracting much attention, seemingly possessing a \"volatile nature\". According to incomplete statistics, since 2014, Tesla has been trending on social media more than 230 times, far exceeding that of other automakers.</p><p>In this rights protection incident, unlike the online criticism, the atmosphere among Tesla owners in the \"eye of the storm\" was relatively calm. One car owner said that if Tesla really had safety hazards, this incident would be a \"landmine clearance\" for the car owner; Even if not, I believe the service will improve. \"Musk is an extremist. With such a madman company, anything is possible with its products. Good and bad are not uncommon.\"</p><p>Currently, the sales data for April has not yet been released, so the direct impact of the rights protection on sales cannot yet be reflected. However, after recently visiting several Tesla experience stores in Beijing, including Qiaofu Fangcaodi and South Fourth Ring Road Middle, \"Shenxiang\" found that the number of customers entering the stores has not been significantly affected. In some stores, approximately 7 groups of customers entered to experience the store within 40 minutes.</p><p>Meanwhile, several Tesla employees also said that although they were caught in a media storm, the order situation was not greatly affected. \"On the contrary, it gave Tesla another wave of advertising, which was almost like 'getting it for free'.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51753458e311d7ce553a2768168a8034\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, car owners who recently placed their orders may find that they will have to wait longer to receive their vehicles. Some netizens said that when they ordered the car on April 20, it was shown that it would take 3-5 weeks to pick up the car, but now it is shown that it will take 5-7 weeks. \"I was hoping that someone would cancel the order or postpone the pick-up, so that I could pick up the car sooner.\"</p><p>However, while Tesla is facing \"siege,\" car owners and prospective car owners are also under enormous pressure, and some potential consumers are indeed choosing to wait and see. After all, in addition to being a means of transportation, cars also have an additional social function.</p><p>One netizen commented on the forum, \"Please resolve this quickly, otherwise the car owner will get scolded as well, and I will be helpless. If someone asks me why I still drive a Tesla, I will get angry.\" \"I went to look at the Model 3 today, but I'll just wait and see for now, after all, safety comes first.\"</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also issued a statement saying that it deeply apologized for putting undue pressure on all Tesla owners over the past few days. But subtly, the most common comment on this Weibo post was \"How long have you been in this situation?\"</p><p>Indeed, being a Tesla owner requires a \"strong\" mind. Previously, Tesla had lowered prices several times in order to boost sales as quickly as possible. According to incomplete statistics, Tesla has adjusted its prices more than 10 times since February 2019.</p><p>While this may encourage new consumers to place orders, it has also made existing car owners feel that their relationships have been \"hurt,\" and some owners have even gone to Tesla stores to protect their rights. Netizens like to refer to Tesla owners as \"leeks,\" who \"harvest\" them when needed. The only difference is whether you are a \"new leek\" or an \"old leek\"?</p><p>In contrast, the pricing system of traditional automakers first sets a relatively stable official guide price, and each 4S store will give a partial discount according to the manufacturer's policy and sales target during the specific sales process. Because of the publicly available official guide price and the less transparent actual sales price, a certain balance is maintained between new and old car owners.</p><p>Given the recent pressure on car owners and the May Day holiday, Tesla has launched a benefit for both new and existing car owners: 45 days of free use of EAP (Enhanced Autonomous Driving Assistance), free use of Supercharger stations during the May Day holiday, and a 25% discount on air conditioning filter replacement. This is aimed at both appeasing existing car owners and encouraging consumers to place orders as soon as possible.</p><p><b>Who's buying a Tesla?</b></p><p>Tesla officially entered China in April 2014, when Musk first came to China to deliver products to the first batch of car owners. The first batch of car owners included eight entrepreneurs, including Wang Dongfeng, Li Xiang, Yu Yongfu, Pan Yanming, Xu Liang, and Dong Xiaoli. In addition, IT technology leaders such as Lei Jun and Cao Guowei were also among Tesla's first fans.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bfb0de5018bf54e4ea94b350984b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following years, Tesla's development in China mainly went through three stages:</p><p>The first phase lasted from 2014 to 2019, when sales in China mainly consisted of imported Model S and Model X, with monthly sales hovering around 4,000 units.</p><p>In the second phase, from 2019 to 2020, the Model 3 was officially localized, with prices entering the range below 300,000 yuan and sales remaining stable at over 10,000 units, with the highest exceeding 20,000 units.</p><p>The third phase, from 2021 to the present, has seen the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, with first-quarter sales three times that of the same period last year. In particular, sales in March reached 35,400 units, breaking the monthly sales record in China.</p><p>Currently, Tesla's cumulative sales in China have exceeded 250,000 vehicles. So who exactly is buying Teslas?</p><p>Geographically, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are Tesla's main \"bases\". According to data from compulsory traffic accident liability insurance, 139,000 Teslas were registered nationwide in 2020. Among them, 33,000, 26,000, 17,000, and 14,000 were registered in Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing respectively, accounting for 23.7%, 18.5%, 12.4%, and 10.2% respectively, totaling 64.7%. This also means that the regions with the highest demand for Teslas are still the more developed eastern and coastal areas with license plate restrictions.</p><p>In terms of car owner age, according to a survey by NetEase Auto, Tesla owners are 30.3 years old, which is lower than the user base of many car brands. Among them, car owners aged 31 to 40 accounted for 56%, those aged 25 to 30 accounted for 20%, and even those aged 18 to 24 accounted for 3%. This also means that young people have a high level of acceptance of Tesla.</p><p>From a professional perspective, most Tesla owners work in the digital, technology, electronics and internet industries. They have a certain understanding of the latest electric vehicle and new energy technologies, are more tolerant of some minor problems that may arise, and have a stronger ability to withstand them. Many owners even jokingly call themselves \"leeks\".</p><p>It's worth noting that 83% of Tesla owners own two or more cars, and electric vehicles are not their first. Only 17% of car owners choose a Tesla as their family's first car, mainly because license plate restrictions and current policies in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have spurred this demand among users.</p><p>Although Tesla has suffered various social attacks due to price cuts or tough rhetoric, in the long run, sales will not be significantly affected, which is due to the \"truly appealing\" principle.</p><p>Currently, Tesla offers four models: Model 3, Model Y, Model X, and Model S. Among them, the Model 3 and Model Y are its main models. Tesla's Model 3's competitors are not domestic new energy brands, but luxury mid-size sedans such as the BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Audi A4. The Model Y's \"competitors\" are the BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC, and Audi Q5L.</p><p>In a horizontal comparison, the Model 3 and Model Y perform slightly worse in terms of space, but have obvious advantages in power performance, configuration, and price. Among them, the maximum power and torque of the Tesla Model 3 standard version are higher than those of competing models equipped with traditional powertrains, and it accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h faster; In terms of price, the standard range version of the Model 3 is 19%, 14%, and 19% cheaper than the lower-end versions of the Mercedes-Benz C-Series, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4, respectively. In terms of configuration, the Model 3 comes standard with an active safety system, with a safety level significantly superior to that of competing models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b91c64441840bf2d3250b5605b683f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The market is also tilting towards Tesla, a trend that has already begun to be reflected in the US market. It is understood that in the US market in 2020, Model 3 sales (120,000 units) surpassed the combined sales of the three competing models (90,000 units). Although the Model Y is still in the ramp-up phase (70,000 units), it has surpassed the BMW X3 (60,000 units), the best-selling of the three competitors, and still has great potential for improvement in the future.</p><p>Given the \"temperaments\" of Musk and Tesla, they may cause even greater \"commotion\" in the future, whether it will bring praise or criticism. However, China also needs such a \"catfish,\" not only in the new energy vehicle industry chain, but also in electric vehicle consumption habits and culture.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After the public opinion storm, who is still buying Teslas?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter the public opinion storm, who is still buying Teslas?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1038713350\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">深响 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 18:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Tesla rights protection case, which has been on hold for an extremely long time, has made new progress.</p><p>Recently, Ms. Zhang, a Tesla owner in Anyang, Henan Province, issued a statement saying that some false statements made by Tesla and Tesla's Vice President of External Affairs, Tao Lin, without any evidence, have had a serious impact on her personal and family work and life. In response, she has filed a civil complaint with the court against Tesla and Tao Lin.</p><p>After sparking a \"public opinion storm,\" most people are waiting to see Tesla's \"joke.\" After all, there had been precedents before. In 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales declined sharply due to the \"oil scandal\". In the first half of 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales fell by 13.4%. At that time, total automobile sales in the Chinese market maintained a year-on-year growth of 4%, and Dongfeng Honda was one of the few automakers whose sales declined. In 2018, Honda's CR-V sales halved, dragging down Dongfeng Honda's overall sales by 4.1% year-on-year.</p><p>However, prior to this, Tesla had just delivered an impressive \"report card\". In Q1 2021, Tesla's total deliveries reached 185,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%, setting a new record. Revenue was $10.389 billion, a year-over-year increase of 73.6%; The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of RMB 1.052 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 363.4%.</p><p>In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market, three times that of the same period last year, accounting for nearly 37% of global sales. Revenue in China reached $3.043 billion, a significant increase of 238% compared to $900 million in the same period last year, accounting for 29.3% of Tesla's revenue in the first quarter. The Chinese market remains Tesla's second-largest global market, but its size has further shrunk compared to the US market.</p><p>Will Tesla's potential customers stay away from it because of this incident? With these questions in mind, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores.</p><p><b>The number of customers entering the store will not decrease</b></p><p>Since entering the Chinese market, Tesla has been attracting much attention, seemingly possessing a \"volatile nature\". According to incomplete statistics, since 2014, Tesla has been trending on social media more than 230 times, far exceeding that of other automakers.</p><p>In this rights protection incident, unlike the online criticism, the atmosphere among Tesla owners in the \"eye of the storm\" was relatively calm. One car owner said that if Tesla really had safety hazards, this incident would be a \"landmine clearance\" for the car owner; Even if not, I believe the service will improve. \"Musk is an extremist. With such a madman company, anything is possible with its products. Good and bad are not uncommon.\"</p><p>Currently, the sales data for April has not yet been released, so the direct impact of the rights protection on sales cannot yet be reflected. However, after recently visiting several Tesla experience stores in Beijing, including Qiaofu Fangcaodi and South Fourth Ring Road Middle, \"Shenxiang\" found that the number of customers entering the stores has not been significantly affected. In some stores, approximately 7 groups of customers entered to experience the store within 40 minutes.</p><p>Meanwhile, several Tesla employees also said that although they were caught in a media storm, the order situation was not greatly affected. \"On the contrary, it gave Tesla another wave of advertising, which was almost like 'getting it for free'.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51753458e311d7ce553a2768168a8034\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, car owners who recently placed their orders may find that they will have to wait longer to receive their vehicles. Some netizens said that when they ordered the car on April 20, it was shown that it would take 3-5 weeks to pick up the car, but now it is shown that it will take 5-7 weeks. \"I was hoping that someone would cancel the order or postpone the pick-up, so that I could pick up the car sooner.\"</p><p>However, while Tesla is facing \"siege,\" car owners and prospective car owners are also under enormous pressure, and some potential consumers are indeed choosing to wait and see. After all, in addition to being a means of transportation, cars also have an additional social function.</p><p>One netizen commented on the forum, \"Please resolve this quickly, otherwise the car owner will get scolded as well, and I will be helpless. If someone asks me why I still drive a Tesla, I will get angry.\" \"I went to look at the Model 3 today, but I'll just wait and see for now, after all, safety comes first.\"</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also issued a statement saying that it deeply apologized for putting undue pressure on all Tesla owners over the past few days. But subtly, the most common comment on this Weibo post was \"How long have you been in this situation?\"</p><p>Indeed, being a Tesla owner requires a \"strong\" mind. Previously, Tesla had lowered prices several times in order to boost sales as quickly as possible. According to incomplete statistics, Tesla has adjusted its prices more than 10 times since February 2019.</p><p>While this may encourage new consumers to place orders, it has also made existing car owners feel that their relationships have been \"hurt,\" and some owners have even gone to Tesla stores to protect their rights. Netizens like to refer to Tesla owners as \"leeks,\" who \"harvest\" them when needed. The only difference is whether you are a \"new leek\" or an \"old leek\"?</p><p>In contrast, the pricing system of traditional automakers first sets a relatively stable official guide price, and each 4S store will give a partial discount according to the manufacturer's policy and sales target during the specific sales process. Because of the publicly available official guide price and the less transparent actual sales price, a certain balance is maintained between new and old car owners.</p><p>Given the recent pressure on car owners and the May Day holiday, Tesla has launched a benefit for both new and existing car owners: 45 days of free use of EAP (Enhanced Autonomous Driving Assistance), free use of Supercharger stations during the May Day holiday, and a 25% discount on air conditioning filter replacement. This is aimed at both appeasing existing car owners and encouraging consumers to place orders as soon as possible.</p><p><b>Who's buying a Tesla?</b></p><p>Tesla officially entered China in April 2014, when Musk first came to China to deliver products to the first batch of car owners. The first batch of car owners included eight entrepreneurs, including Wang Dongfeng, Li Xiang, Yu Yongfu, Pan Yanming, Xu Liang, and Dong Xiaoli. In addition, IT technology leaders such as Lei Jun and Cao Guowei were also among Tesla's first fans.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bfb0de5018bf54e4ea94b350984b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following years, Tesla's development in China mainly went through three stages:</p><p>The first phase lasted from 2014 to 2019, when sales in China mainly consisted of imported Model S and Model X, with monthly sales hovering around 4,000 units.</p><p>In the second phase, from 2019 to 2020, the Model 3 was officially localized, with prices entering the range below 300,000 yuan and sales remaining stable at over 10,000 units, with the highest exceeding 20,000 units.</p><p>The third phase, from 2021 to the present, has seen the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, with first-quarter sales three times that of the same period last year. In particular, sales in March reached 35,400 units, breaking the monthly sales record in China.</p><p>Currently, Tesla's cumulative sales in China have exceeded 250,000 vehicles. So who exactly is buying Teslas?</p><p>Geographically, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are Tesla's main \"bases\". According to data from compulsory traffic accident liability insurance, 139,000 Teslas were registered nationwide in 2020. Among them, 33,000, 26,000, 17,000, and 14,000 were registered in Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing respectively, accounting for 23.7%, 18.5%, 12.4%, and 10.2% respectively, totaling 64.7%. This also means that the regions with the highest demand for Teslas are still the more developed eastern and coastal areas with license plate restrictions.</p><p>In terms of car owner age, according to a survey by NetEase Auto, Tesla owners are 30.3 years old, which is lower than the user base of many car brands. Among them, car owners aged 31 to 40 accounted for 56%, those aged 25 to 30 accounted for 20%, and even those aged 18 to 24 accounted for 3%. This also means that young people have a high level of acceptance of Tesla.</p><p>From a professional perspective, most Tesla owners work in the digital, technology, electronics and internet industries. They have a certain understanding of the latest electric vehicle and new energy technologies, are more tolerant of some minor problems that may arise, and have a stronger ability to withstand them. Many owners even jokingly call themselves \"leeks\".</p><p>It's worth noting that 83% of Tesla owners own two or more cars, and electric vehicles are not their first. Only 17% of car owners choose a Tesla as their family's first car, mainly because license plate restrictions and current policies in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have spurred this demand among users.</p><p>Although Tesla has suffered various social attacks due to price cuts or tough rhetoric, in the long run, sales will not be significantly affected, which is due to the \"truly appealing\" principle.</p><p>Currently, Tesla offers four models: Model 3, Model Y, Model X, and Model S. Among them, the Model 3 and Model Y are its main models. Tesla's Model 3's competitors are not domestic new energy brands, but luxury mid-size sedans such as the BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Audi A4. The Model Y's \"competitors\" are the BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC, and Audi Q5L.</p><p>In a horizontal comparison, the Model 3 and Model Y perform slightly worse in terms of space, but have obvious advantages in power performance, configuration, and price. Among them, the maximum power and torque of the Tesla Model 3 standard version are higher than those of competing models equipped with traditional powertrains, and it accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h faster; In terms of price, the standard range version of the Model 3 is 19%, 14%, and 19% cheaper than the lower-end versions of the Mercedes-Benz C-Series, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4, respectively. In terms of configuration, the Model 3 comes standard with an active safety system, with a safety level significantly superior to that of competing models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b91c64441840bf2d3250b5605b683f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The market is also tilting towards Tesla, a trend that has already begun to be reflected in the US market. It is understood that in the US market in 2020, Model 3 sales (120,000 units) surpassed the combined sales of the three competing models (90,000 units). Although the Model Y is still in the ramp-up phase (70,000 units), it has surpassed the BMW X3 (60,000 units), the best-selling of the three competitors, and still has great potential for improvement in the future.</p><p>Given the \"temperaments\" of Musk and Tesla, they may cause even greater \"commotion\" in the future, whether it will bring praise or criticism. However, China also needs such a \"catfish,\" not only in the new energy vehicle industry chain, but also in electric vehicle consumption habits and culture.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7026718c9a78c88d8a7e2e09a6f862","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174893125","content_text":"超长“待机”的特斯拉维权事件，又有了最新进展。\n近日，河南安阳特斯拉车主张女士发布一份声明称，在没有任何证据的情况下，特斯拉公司以及特斯拉对外事务副总裁陶琳发布的一些不实言论，已经对其个人以及家人的工作生活造成了严重的影响。对此，她已向法院递交民事起诉状，起诉特斯拉和陶琳。\n在引发“舆论风暴”后，大部分人都在等着看特斯拉“笑话”。毕竟，此前已经有先例。2018年，东风本田受“机油门”事件的影响，销量大幅下滑。其中，2018年上半年，东风本田的销量下跌13.4%。当时，中国市场汽车总销量保持着4%的同比增长，东风本田也是数不多销量下滑的汽车厂商之一。2018年全年，本田CR-V销量腰斩，拖累东风本田2018年的整体销量同比下滑4.1%。\n不过，在此之前，特斯拉刚交出一份靓丽的“成绩单”。2021年Q1，特斯拉总交付量为18.5万辆，同比增长108.9%，创下历史新高；营收为103.89亿美元，同比增幅达73.6%；实现Non-GAAP下归属于普通股东的净利润10.52亿元，同比增长363.4%。\n其中，一季度中国市场特斯拉交付量达6.9万辆，是去年同期的3倍，占全球销量的近37%；中国地区收入达到30.43亿美元，较去年同期的9亿美元大幅增长238%，占特斯拉一季度营收比例达29.3%。中国市场仍是特斯拉全球第二大市场，但与美国市场的规模进一步缩小。\n特斯拉的潜在客户会因为此次事件远离它吗？带着这样的疑问，“深响”近期走访了几家特斯拉体验店。\n入店人数不减\n特斯拉自进入中国市场后，一直备受关注，似乎有一种“易火体质”。据不完全统计，2014年至今，特斯拉上热搜的次数超过230次，远超其他车企。\n在此次维权事件中，与网络上的“口诛笔伐”不同，“暴风眼”中的特斯拉车主，气氛相对平静许多。一位车主表示，如果特斯拉真有安全隐患，这起事件对车主来说是“排雷”；即使没有，相信服务上也会有所提升，“马斯克是一个极致分子，拥有这样一个狂人的公司，其产品一切都有可能，好的坏的都不稀奇。”\n目前，4月的销售数据尚未出炉，所以维权对销量的直接影响还无从体现。不过，“深响”近期走访了北京侨福芳草地、南四环中路在内的几家特斯拉体验店后发现，其客户入店量并未受到太大影响。部分门店在40分钟内，大约有7组客人进店体验。\n同时，多位特斯拉员工也表示，虽然深陷舆论漩涡，但订单情况并未受太大影响，“反而给特斯拉又做了一波广告，几乎是‘白嫖’”。\n\n另外，最近定车的车主可能会发现，需要等待更长时间才能拿到车。有网友表示，4月20号订车时候，当时显示要3-5周就可以提车，但现在显示要5-7周，“本来还指望有人退订或推迟提车，自己好能早点提到车呢。”\n不过，在特斯拉遭遇“围攻”的同时，车主和准车主也承受着巨大的压力，的确有部分潜在消费者选择观望。毕竟，车除了是一种交通工具外，还多了一层社交的功能。\n有网友在论坛表示，“快点解决吧，要不然车主跟着挨骂，我就无奈了，是个人就问我怎么还开特斯拉，我都要急眼了”；“今天去看了下Model 3，不过还是先观望吧，毕竟安全第一嘛”。\n与此同时，特斯拉也发表声明称，过去几日，让所有特斯拉车友们承受了不该承受的压力，对此她们感到万分抱歉。但微妙的是，在这条微博下，评论最多的是“你这种情况多久了？”\n确实，当特斯拉车主，需要有“强大”的内心。此前，特斯拉为了尽快提升销量，进行了多次降价。据不完全统计，从2019年2月以来，特斯拉调价超过10次。\n这虽然会带动新消费者下单，但也让老车主觉得感情受到“伤害”，甚至部分车主跑到特斯拉门店维权。网友喜欢称呼特斯拉车主为“韭菜”，需要的时候就“割”一茬。唯一不同的是，你是“新韭菜”还是“老韭菜”？\n相比之下，传统车企的价格体系，首先是制定一个相对稳定的官方指导价，各家4S店在具体销售过程中，会根据厂家政策和销量目标给出部分折扣。因为公开的官方指导价，以及不太透明的实际销售价格，所以在新老车主之间维持了某种平衡。\n鉴于最近车主承受的压力和五一小长假，特斯拉推出了针对新老车主的福利：EAP（增强版自动辅助驾驶）45天免费使用权，五一假期超级充电站免费使用，空调滤芯更换7.5折。这背后是一方面安抚老车主的情绪，另一方面也希望能刺激消费者尽早下订单。\n谁在买特斯拉？\n特斯拉正式进入中国，是在2014年4月，当时马斯克首次来到中国，向首批车主交付产品。第一批车主是包括汪东风、李想、俞永福、潘燕明、许亮、董晓栗等8位企业家。除此之外，雷军、曹国伟等IT科技界领袖也是特斯拉的首批粉丝。\n\n在随后的几年时间中，特斯拉在中国的发展，主要经历了三个阶段：\n第一阶段是从2014年到2019年，当时在中国销售主要以进口的Model S和 Model X为主，月销量销量徘徊在4000辆左右；\n第二阶段从2019年到2020年，Model 3正式国产化，价格进入30万以下区间，销量稳定在1万辆以上，最高突破2万辆；\n第三阶段是从2021年至今，伴随国产 Model Y 上市，一季度销量是去年同期的3倍。特别是3月份销量为3.54万辆，刷新在中国单月销量纪录。\n目前，特斯拉在中国销量累计超过了25万辆，那到底谁在购买特斯拉呢？\n从地域上来看，北上广是特斯拉的主要“阵地”。根据交强险数据，2020 年全国特斯拉上牌量为13.9万辆，其中在上海、广东、浙江、北京四地的上牌量分别为3.3万辆、2.6万辆、1.7万辆、1.4万辆，占比分别为 23.7%、18.5%、12.4%、10.2%，合计达 64.7%。这也意味着，当前对特斯拉需求较高的地区，仍为东部及沿海较发达且限牌的地区。\n从车主年龄上来看，根据网易汽车调查，特斯拉车主为30.3岁，这低于很多汽车品牌的用户群。其中，31岁到40岁的车主占比为56%，25岁到30岁占比为20%，甚至18岁到24岁的用户数量也占到了3%。这也意味着，年轻群体对于特斯拉的接受度比较高。\n职业上来看，特斯拉车主多是从事数码、科技、电子及互联网行业，他们对最新的电动车和新能源技术有一定的了解，对可能出现的一些小问题包容度更高，同时承受能力也更强，很多车主甚至自嘲“韭菜”。\n值得一提的是，83%的特斯拉车主拥有两辆或更多的车，电动车并非第一辆车。只有17%的车主，将特斯拉作为家庭的第一辆车，这主要是因为北上广等城市限号、现行政策，催生了这部分用户需求。\n虽然特斯拉因为降价或强硬言论，遭受各种“社会毒打”，但长远来看，销量并不会受到太大影响，这背后是“真香”定律。\n目前，特斯拉在售车型分为Model 3、Model Y、Model X、Model S四款车型。其中，Model 3和Model Y是其主力车型。特斯拉的Model 3的竞争对手，并非是国产新能源品牌，而是宝马3系、奔驰C级、奥迪A4等豪华中型轿车；Model Y的“对手”则是宝马X3、奔驰GLC和奥迪Q5L。\n横向对比来看，Model 3 和Model Y除了空间方面表现略逊，在动力性能、配置和价格上优势明显。其中，特斯拉 Model 3 标准版的最大功率与扭矩，高于搭载传统动力总成的竞品车型，百公里加速更快；从价格上看，Model 3 标准续航版比低配版的奔驰 C 系、宝马 3 系、奥迪 A4 还便宜 19%、14%和 19%；从配置来看， Model 3 全系标配主动安全系统，安全等级显著优于竞品车型。\n\n市场也正在向特斯拉倾斜，这一趋势在美国市场已经开始体现。据了解，2020 年的美国市场， Model 3 销量（12万辆）已实现对三款竞品销量总和的超越（9万辆）；Model Y 虽然仍在爬坡期（7万辆），但也超过了三款竞品中卖的最好的宝马 X3（6万辆），未来仍有很大提升潜力。\n依照马斯克和特斯拉的“脾气”，未来可能会闹出更大“动静”，不管是会带来褒奖还是批评。不过，中国也需要这样一条“鲶鱼”，不仅仅是新能源汽车产业链，也包括电动车消费习惯和文化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104292830,"gmtCreate":1620391875720,"gmtModify":1704342993033,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I'm strongly agree...","listText":"I'm strongly agree...","text":"I'm strongly agree...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104292830","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104298257,"gmtCreate":1620391735079,"gmtModify":1704342990358,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I strongly agree.....","listText":"I strongly agree.....","text":"I strongly agree.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104298257","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108545235,"gmtCreate":1620045768127,"gmtModify":1704337794251,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really???","listText":"Really???","text":"Really???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108545235","repostId":"1148368936","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148368936","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620043274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148368936?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 20:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How long will the global chip shortage last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148368936","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","content":"<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global automotive industry.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>In their latest report, analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore stated that this situation may continue into 2022.</p><p>They believe that this will hinder production for many automakers, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The second-quarter and full-year production and profit forecasts released last week can be considered the first \"profit warning\" for the automotive industry amid the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>Following the release of the first-quarter report, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that planned production in the second quarter would be forced to decrease by 50% due to the potential worsening of the chip shortage, far exceeding the 17% decline in the first quarter. According to its Chief Financial Officer John Lawler, Ford will cut production by approximately 1.1 million vehicles throughout 2021 due to chip issues, resulting in a loss of $2.5 billion.</p><p>In late March, a fire at a factory owned by Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics forced production to halt, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore believe that,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"most severely affected example of chip supply disruptions,\" which is a \"reality test\" for investors investing in OEMs.</b></p><p>However, Ford had previously been optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, believing that chip supply would bottom out in the second quarter and improve for the remainder of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore say now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the electric vehicle sector and \"buy on dips.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How long will the global chip shortage last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow long will the global chip shortage last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-03 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global automotive industry.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>In their latest report, analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore stated that this situation may continue into 2022.</p><p>They believe that this will hinder production for many automakers, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The second-quarter and full-year production and profit forecasts released last week can be considered the first \"profit warning\" for the automotive industry amid the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>Following the release of the first-quarter report, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that planned production in the second quarter would be forced to decrease by 50% due to the potential worsening of the chip shortage, far exceeding the 17% decline in the first quarter. According to its Chief Financial Officer John Lawler, Ford will cut production by approximately 1.1 million vehicles throughout 2021 due to chip issues, resulting in a loss of $2.5 billion.</p><p>In late March, a fire at a factory owned by Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics forced production to halt, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore believe that,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"most severely affected example of chip supply disruptions,\" which is a \"reality test\" for investors investing in OEMs.</b></p><p>However, Ford had previously been optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, believing that chip supply would bottom out in the second quarter and improve for the remainder of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore say now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the electric vehicle sector and \"buy on dips.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148368936","content_text":"芯片供应短缺持续困扰全球汽车业，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas和Joseph Moore在最新报告中表示，这一局面或将持续到2022年。\n他们认为，许多汽车制造商将因此生产受阻，而福特汽车上周公布的二季度和全年产量、盈利预期，算是“芯片荒”下汽车业的第一个“盈利预警”。\n一季报公布后，福特CEO Jim Farley预计，由于芯片短缺可能进一步恶化，二季度计划产量将被迫减少50%，远高于一季度17%的降幅。其首席财务官John Lawler表示，2021年全年，福特将因芯片问题减产汽车约110万辆，损失25亿美元。\n3月底，福特芯片供应商瑞萨电子(Renesas Electronics)旗下一家工厂发生火灾后被迫停产，加剧全球芯片短缺。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore认为，由于规划不善，福特可能是受到“芯片供应中断影响最严重例子”，这对投资OEM代工的投资者来说，是一次“现实的检验”。\n不过，福特此前对下半年表现持乐观预期，认为芯片供应将在二季度触底，并在今年剩余时间内有所改善。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore表示，现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108095871,"gmtCreate":1619956987093,"gmtModify":1704336758995,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".....","listText":".....","text":".....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108095871","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article is from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>\"Macroeconomic\".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2021, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><b>Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b>1) In Q1 2021, U.S. personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. This demonstrates the immediate stimulating effect of the $1,400 subsidy in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption after the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b>In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter. 1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the supply-demand gap in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventories. This means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies have driven up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap has led to high import growth.</b>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b>We believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination process and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects. Personal consumption expenditures: The first quarter is expected to be the peak of goods consumption, and service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the strength of the subsequent service sector recovery. Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment requires attention to the subsequent progress of the pandemic. Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; Changes in private inventories may not improve until unemployment benefits end in September. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>II. Global Macro Data</b></p><p><b>This week's high-frequency data</b>New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>epidemic</b>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States has decreased.</p><p><b>Demand</b>Retail sales in Japan rebounded significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and commodities</b>Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>The U.S. existing home sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>Focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, slightly lower than market expectations.</b></p><p>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and by 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b></p><p>In Q1 2021, government subsidies of up to $2,000 per person boosted consumer spending; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the initial optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, US personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. It jumped from being the biggest drag on GDP in Q4 to the biggest contributor, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of both the $600 subsidy in January and the $1,400 subsidy that began to be distributed in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while the year-on-year growth rate of non-durable goods slowed slightly (4.3%), indicating that the US$1,400 subsidy in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Consumption of goods and services jointly drove high growth in personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In Q1 2021, commodity consumption contributed 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. This was mainly due to the renewed high growth of durable goods under fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In Q1 2021, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared to Q4, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP improved only slightly by 0.3 percentage points. 2) Service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. Although service consumption still had a negative contribution of -1.4% to GDP in Q1 2021, it improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The improvement was greater than that of durable goods consumption, demonstrating that service consumption has greater resilience in improving under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and easing of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b></p><p>The impact of non-residential investment on GDP growth has improved significantly, while private inventory has become a drag. In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the gap between supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. The main factor dragging down private investment was changes in private inventories (a drag of 0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term. In Q1 2021, residential investment's contribution to GDP remained stable. However, with the gradual rise in mortgage rates since 2021, the US real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction spending and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that the contribution of residential investment to GDP will gradually decline in the future.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drove up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap led to high import growth.</b></p><p>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight recovery in US industrial production. However, this still pales in comparison to the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. In reality, it reflects the widening supply-demand gap in Q1 2021 due to excessive US fiscal subsidies. 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening supply and demand gap in the United States is the expansion of imports.</p><p>Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter; attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination progress and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditures: 1) Although goods consumption showed extremely strong momentum in Q1 2021, we expect the first quarter to be the peak of goods consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies subside; 2) Service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases, but the global pandemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the intensity of the subsequent recovery of the service sector.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driver of the improvement in non-residential investment in Q1 2021 was positive economic expectations. From the current perspective, the global pandemic is the core factor determining the strength of economic recovery, and the subsequent progress of the pandemic needs to be monitored. 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventory, i.e., the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current supply-demand gap in the United States can be alleviated. From the current perspective, it may not be until after unemployment benefits end in September that a significant trend of bridging between the supply and demand sides of the United States can emerge, thereby driving inventory investment.</p><p>Government spending and net exports: 1) With the continued payment of unemployment benefits in the second and third quarters, government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. If the US jobs program or the US family program can be implemented within the year, it will also boost government spending levels; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of US industrial production, which, as mentioned above, may not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the United States declined this week. The average number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 over the past seven days. As of April 29, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 150 million, the cumulative number of deaths reached 3.14 million, and the cumulative number of recoveries reached 120 million. Over the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), the United States and the United Kingdom reported 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases, respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel had the highest average number of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people globally, at 121.1 doses per 100 people, followed by the United States at 70.2 doses per 100 people and the United Kingdom at 70.9 doses per 100 people. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people globally, at 58.7%, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom at 29.3% and 20.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales rebounded significantly year-on-year.</b></p><p>Both retail and wholesale sales in Japan saw significant year-on-year growth. Japan's retail sales index rose 5.3% year-on-year in March, with textiles and apparel retailing at 15.8% year-on-year and wholesale sales at 1.0% year-on-year in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and consumption of semi-durable goods increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales rose 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year in March, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest at 35.5% year-on-year. Durable goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, while non-durable goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and Employment: New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and new order growth both increased month-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index rose both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a continued recovery in industry. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production rose 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from the previous week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries rose by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly that week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. In the week ending April 24, initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week; The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million in the week ending April 17, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: US imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March. U.S. exports rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points to 11.5% in March from the previous month, while imports rose by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance was -$90.59 billion in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week ending April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2 per barrel; The weekly average price of Brent crude rose to $66.6 per barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real Estate: The US existing home sales index rose year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for the eighth consecutive month in February. The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-over-year to 246.0 in February, marking its eighth consecutive month of gains. The U.S. existing home sales index rose sharply by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>New home starts and construction orders in Japan rose sharply in March. New home starts in Japan in March rose 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, while construction orders in March rose 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell 18.2 to 706.6, indicating a slight cooling of housing market activity.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained basically stable.</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices remained basically stable. On April 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate meeting statement. At the post-meeting press conference, Powell said that it would take some time to see substantial progress, and that the current scale of asset purchases would be maintained before that. It was not yet time to discuss Taper, and the US Dollar Index continued to decline. As of April 29, the the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from the previous week; The euro and the pound sterling closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 against the dollar respectively (pound sterling exchange rate data as of the 28th), appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; The Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, up 1.7% from last week, as the Bank of Canada took the lead in tapering. The average weekly price of gold in London this week was $1,774.8 per ounce, basically stable from last week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWas the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article is from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>\"Macroeconomic\".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2021, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><b>Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b>1) In Q1 2021, U.S. personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. This demonstrates the immediate stimulating effect of the $1,400 subsidy in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption after the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b>In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter. 1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the supply-demand gap in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventories. This means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies have driven up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap has led to high import growth.</b>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b>We believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination process and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects. Personal consumption expenditures: The first quarter is expected to be the peak of goods consumption, and service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the strength of the subsequent service sector recovery. Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment requires attention to the subsequent progress of the pandemic. Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; Changes in private inventories may not improve until unemployment benefits end in September. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>II. Global Macro Data</b></p><p><b>This week's high-frequency data</b>New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>epidemic</b>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States has decreased.</p><p><b>Demand</b>Retail sales in Japan rebounded significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and commodities</b>Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>The U.S. existing home sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>Focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, slightly lower than market expectations.</b></p><p>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and by 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b></p><p>In Q1 2021, government subsidies of up to $2,000 per person boosted consumer spending; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the initial optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, US personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. It jumped from being the biggest drag on GDP in Q4 to the biggest contributor, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of both the $600 subsidy in January and the $1,400 subsidy that began to be distributed in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while the year-on-year growth rate of non-durable goods slowed slightly (4.3%), indicating that the US$1,400 subsidy in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Consumption of goods and services jointly drove high growth in personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In Q1 2021, commodity consumption contributed 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. This was mainly due to the renewed high growth of durable goods under fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In Q1 2021, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared to Q4, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP improved only slightly by 0.3 percentage points. 2) Service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. Although service consumption still had a negative contribution of -1.4% to GDP in Q1 2021, it improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The improvement was greater than that of durable goods consumption, demonstrating that service consumption has greater resilience in improving under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and easing of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b></p><p>The impact of non-residential investment on GDP growth has improved significantly, while private inventory has become a drag. In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the gap between supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. The main factor dragging down private investment was changes in private inventories (a drag of 0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term. In Q1 2021, residential investment's contribution to GDP remained stable. However, with the gradual rise in mortgage rates since 2021, the US real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction spending and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that the contribution of residential investment to GDP will gradually decline in the future.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drove up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap led to high import growth.</b></p><p>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight recovery in US industrial production. However, this still pales in comparison to the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. In reality, it reflects the widening supply-demand gap in Q1 2021 due to excessive US fiscal subsidies. 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening supply and demand gap in the United States is the expansion of imports.</p><p>Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter; attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination progress and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditures: 1) Although goods consumption showed extremely strong momentum in Q1 2021, we expect the first quarter to be the peak of goods consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies subside; 2) Service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases, but the global pandemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the intensity of the subsequent recovery of the service sector.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driver of the improvement in non-residential investment in Q1 2021 was positive economic expectations. From the current perspective, the global pandemic is the core factor determining the strength of economic recovery, and the subsequent progress of the pandemic needs to be monitored. 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventory, i.e., the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current supply-demand gap in the United States can be alleviated. From the current perspective, it may not be until after unemployment benefits end in September that a significant trend of bridging between the supply and demand sides of the United States can emerge, thereby driving inventory investment.</p><p>Government spending and net exports: 1) With the continued payment of unemployment benefits in the second and third quarters, government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. If the US jobs program or the US family program can be implemented within the year, it will also boost government spending levels; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of US industrial production, which, as mentioned above, may not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the United States declined this week. The average number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 over the past seven days. As of April 29, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 150 million, the cumulative number of deaths reached 3.14 million, and the cumulative number of recoveries reached 120 million. Over the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), the United States and the United Kingdom reported 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases, respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel had the highest average number of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people globally, at 121.1 doses per 100 people, followed by the United States at 70.2 doses per 100 people and the United Kingdom at 70.9 doses per 100 people. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people globally, at 58.7%, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom at 29.3% and 20.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales rebounded significantly year-on-year.</b></p><p>Both retail and wholesale sales in Japan saw significant year-on-year growth. Japan's retail sales index rose 5.3% year-on-year in March, with textiles and apparel retailing at 15.8% year-on-year and wholesale sales at 1.0% year-on-year in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and consumption of semi-durable goods increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales rose 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year in March, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest at 35.5% year-on-year. Durable goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, while non-durable goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and Employment: New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and new order growth both increased month-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index rose both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a continued recovery in industry. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production rose 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from the previous week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries rose by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly that week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. In the week ending April 24, initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week; The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million in the week ending April 17, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: US imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March. U.S. exports rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points to 11.5% in March from the previous month, while imports rose by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance was -$90.59 billion in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week ending April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2 per barrel; The weekly average price of Brent crude rose to $66.6 per barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real Estate: The US existing home sales index rose year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for the eighth consecutive month in February. The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-over-year to 246.0 in February, marking its eighth consecutive month of gains. The U.S. existing home sales index rose sharply by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>New home starts and construction orders in Japan rose sharply in March. New home starts in Japan in March rose 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, while construction orders in March rose 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell 18.2 to 706.6, indicating a slight cooling of housing market activity.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained basically stable.</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices remained basically stable. On April 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate meeting statement. At the post-meeting press conference, Powell said that it would take some time to see substantial progress, and that the current scale of asset purchases would be maintained before that. It was not yet time to discuss Taper, and the US Dollar Index continued to decline. As of April 29, the the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from the previous week; The euro and the pound sterling closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 against the dollar respectively (pound sterling exchange rate data as of the 28th), appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; The Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, up 1.7% from last week, as the Bank of Canada took the lead in tapering. The average weekly price of gold in London this week was $1,774.8 per ounce, basically stable from last week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358271966,"gmtCreate":1616712224855,"gmtModify":1704797666748,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Keep dropping??","listText":"Keep dropping??","text":"Keep dropping??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1d1d7302cf0d51835d262a408ca7b1","width":"1080","height":"2709"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358271966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":837280856,"gmtCreate":1629893344275,"gmtModify":1676530164128,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$when can break even?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8809d8de42a5ff84d4a1635de349af07","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837280856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130667342,"gmtCreate":1621542701486,"gmtModify":1704359265045,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agreed","listText":"Agreed","text":"Agreed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130667342","repostId":"1127507761","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127507761","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621526566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127507761?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 00:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The United States requires cryptocurrency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127507761","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。","content":"<p>The U.S. Treasury Department said the Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include requiring the Internal Revenue Service to report cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000.</p><p>“Similar to cash transactions, companies that acquire cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value exceeding $10,000 will also be required to report,” the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department stated that comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize incentives and opportunities to shift revenue away from the new information reporting system, even though cryptocurrencies only account for a small portion of current commercial transactions. In 2020, the IRS added a line about cryptocurrencies to its personal tax return 1040 to provide more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell by about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000 per coin. US Blockchain stocks declined in the short term, with Coinbase's gains narrowing to 2.4%, The9 City's gains narrowing to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowing to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain falling by more than 1%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States requires cryptocurrency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States requires cryptocurrency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-21 00:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. Treasury Department said the Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include requiring the Internal Revenue Service to report cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000.</p><p>“Similar to cash transactions, companies that acquire cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value exceeding $10,000 will also be required to report,” the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department stated that comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize incentives and opportunities to shift revenue away from the new information reporting system, even though cryptocurrencies only account for a small portion of current commercial transactions. In 2020, the IRS added a line about cryptocurrencies to its personal tax return 1040 to provide more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell by about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000 per coin. US Blockchain stocks declined in the short term, with Coinbase's gains narrowing to 2.4%, The9 City's gains narrowing to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowing to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain falling by more than 1%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127507761","content_text":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。美国国税局于2020年在个人纳税申报单1040中增加了一行关于加密货币的内容，以获得更多关于虚拟货币交易的信息。比特币短线走低约600美元，现跌破41000美元/枚。美股区块链板块短线走低，Coinbase涨幅缩窄至2.4%，第九城市涨幅收窄至1.7%，嘉楠科技涨幅收窄至1.17%，Riot Blockchain跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104292830,"gmtCreate":1620391875720,"gmtModify":1704342993033,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I'm strongly agree...","listText":"I'm strongly agree...","text":"I'm strongly agree...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104292830","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816282654,"gmtCreate":1630503885478,"gmtModify":1676530322568,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Will up continuously????","listText":"Will up continuously????","text":"Will up continuously????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6d60b554fc381f41f27c2966fbeda3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816282654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138563168,"gmtCreate":1621950089254,"gmtModify":1704364992652,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"........","listText":"........","text":"........","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81e86dcd83b3249220460dac0a613d31","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138563168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197845101,"gmtCreate":1621447089203,"gmtModify":1704357793908,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Someone manipulate the market????","listText":"Someone manipulate the market????","text":"Someone manipulate the market????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197845101","repostId":"1152189230","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152189230","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1621437443,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152189230?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being heavily sold off, and the Federal Reserve minutes will be released.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152189230","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股周三与大宗商品、欧洲股市和比特币一道下跌，因投资者风险偏好减弱。\n标准普尔500指数下跌1.3%，道琼斯工业指数下跌1.1%，主要股指延续近期跌势。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.7%，科技股在股市开盘后","content":"<p>U.S. stocks fell along with commodities, European stocks, and Bitcoin on Wednesday as investor risk appetite weakened.</p><p>The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%, as major stock indexes continued their recent decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.7%, and technology stocks fell after the stock market opened. The commodity market also experienced a decline. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the main U.S. crude oil commodity, fell 2.2% to $64.05 a barrel.</p><p>Investors turned to less risky assets such as bonds, causing the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield to fall to 1.639% from 1.641% on Tuesday. When bond prices rise, yields fall.</p><p>The stock market has surged since March 2020, partly due to the Federal Reserve's support for the market and economy since the early days of the pandemic. Now, the accelerating pace of inflation has led some investors to doubt whether the Federal Reserve will scale back its bond purchases and raise interest rates. Although Federal Reserve officials have stated that the economy is still in recovery mode and requires stimulus measures from the Fed, this outlook has caused volatility in stock markets and other high-risk assets in recent weeks.</p><p>Nadège Dufossé, head of cross-asset strategy at Candriam, said the key driver now is the central bank. The Federal Reserve is expected to delay providing guidance on tapering its stimulus program until September, when the data should provide a clearer picture of the inflation outlook. Dufossé said the stock market could be volatile and there could be a 10% correction. The S&P 500 closed just 2.5% below its all-time high on Tuesday, despite declines in five of the past seven trading days.</p><p>According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin has fallen 21% to $34,371.18 since 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, indicating that investors are withdrawing from the large number of speculative bets that have emerged this year. This is the lowest price since February of this year. This also means that in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After announcing it would purchase $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has erased all gains. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $64,829 in mid-April.</p><p>Investors will look for clues about the Federal Reserve's thinking in the minutes of its April meeting, which will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Officials unanimously voted to maintain the Federal Reserve's policies aimed at lowering borrowing costs, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stating that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete.</p><p>Since then, data has shown that inflation rose sharply in April, triggering unease in the stock market. Technology stocks are beneficiaries of low interest rates because their earnings are expected to last for a long time and are particularly sensitive to the prospect of rising borrowing costs.</p><p>Paul Jackson, head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said, \"The market has some concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential actions in tapering its asset purchase program in the coming months and quarters.\" “The U.S. economy is rebounding very, very strongly,” Jackson said. “This in itself should make Jackson feel more comfortable because he doesn’t need to provide as much support as he does now.”</p><p>In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.9%, dragged down by sectors such as basic resources, oil and gas, and technology stocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being heavily sold off, and the Federal Reserve minutes will be released.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being heavily sold off, and the Federal Reserve minutes will be released.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-19 23:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell along with commodities, European stocks, and Bitcoin on Wednesday as investor risk appetite weakened.</p><p>The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%, as major stock indexes continued their recent decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.7%, and technology stocks fell after the stock market opened. The commodity market also experienced a decline. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the main U.S. crude oil commodity, fell 2.2% to $64.05 a barrel.</p><p>Investors turned to less risky assets such as bonds, causing the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield to fall to 1.639% from 1.641% on Tuesday. When bond prices rise, yields fall.</p><p>The stock market has surged since March 2020, partly due to the Federal Reserve's support for the market and economy since the early days of the pandemic. Now, the accelerating pace of inflation has led some investors to doubt whether the Federal Reserve will scale back its bond purchases and raise interest rates. Although Federal Reserve officials have stated that the economy is still in recovery mode and requires stimulus measures from the Fed, this outlook has caused volatility in stock markets and other high-risk assets in recent weeks.</p><p>Nadège Dufossé, head of cross-asset strategy at Candriam, said the key driver now is the central bank. The Federal Reserve is expected to delay providing guidance on tapering its stimulus program until September, when the data should provide a clearer picture of the inflation outlook. Dufossé said the stock market could be volatile and there could be a 10% correction. The S&P 500 closed just 2.5% below its all-time high on Tuesday, despite declines in five of the past seven trading days.</p><p>According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin has fallen 21% to $34,371.18 since 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, indicating that investors are withdrawing from the large number of speculative bets that have emerged this year. This is the lowest price since February of this year. This also means that in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After announcing it would purchase $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has erased all gains. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $64,829 in mid-April.</p><p>Investors will look for clues about the Federal Reserve's thinking in the minutes of its April meeting, which will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Officials unanimously voted to maintain the Federal Reserve's policies aimed at lowering borrowing costs, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stating that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete.</p><p>Since then, data has shown that inflation rose sharply in April, triggering unease in the stock market. Technology stocks are beneficiaries of low interest rates because their earnings are expected to last for a long time and are particularly sensitive to the prospect of rising borrowing costs.</p><p>Paul Jackson, head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said, \"The market has some concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential actions in tapering its asset purchase program in the coming months and quarters.\" “The U.S. economy is rebounding very, very strongly,” Jackson said. “This in itself should make Jackson feel more comfortable because he doesn’t need to provide as much support as he does now.”</p><p>In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.9%, dragged down by sectors such as basic resources, oil and gas, and technology stocks.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","CAN":"嘉楠科技","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","EBON":"亿邦国际","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152189230","content_text":"美股周三与大宗商品、欧洲股市和比特币一道下跌，因投资者风险偏好减弱。\n标准普尔500指数下跌1.3%，道琼斯工业指数下跌1.1%，主要股指延续近期跌势。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.7%，科技股在股市开盘后下跌。大宗商品市场也出现回落。美国主要原油品种西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)期货价格下跌2.2%，至每桶64.05美元。\n投资者转向债券等风险较小的资产避险，致使10年期美国国债收益率从周二的1.641%降至1.639%。当债券价格上涨时，收益率会下降。\n股市自2020年3月以来一路飙升，部分原因是美联储自疫情爆发初期以来对市场和经济支持。现在，通胀步伐加快让一些投资者开始怀疑，美联储是否会缩减债券购买规模并提高利率。尽管美联储官员曾表示，经济仍处于复苏模式，需要美联储采取刺激措施，但这一前景已导致股市和其他高风险资产近几周出现震荡。\nCandriam跨资产策略主管Nadège Dufossé表示，现在关键推动因素是央行。预计美联储将推迟到9月份才提供有关缩减刺激计划指引，届时数据应能更清晰地展现通胀前景。Dufossé说，股市可能会波动，可能会出现10%回调。标普500指数周二收盘仅比历史高点低2.5%，尽管过去七个交易日中有五个交易日下跌。\n据CoinDesk数据，自美国东部时间周二下午5点以来，比特币已下跌21%，至34371.18美元，这表明投资者正在从今年大量出现的投机押注中撤出。这是今年2月以来最低价格。这也意味着，在特斯拉宣布将购买价值15亿美元的加密货币之后，比特币已经抹去所有涨幅。自4月中旬创下64829美元历史高点以来，比特币已经跌逾50%。\n投资者将在美国东部时间下午2点公布的4月会议纪要中寻找有关美联储想法的线索。官员们一致投票决定维持美联储旨在压低借贷成本的政策，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，复苏仍不均衡且不完整。\n自那以来，数据显示4月份通胀率大幅上升，引发了股市不安。科技股是低利率受益者，因为其收益预计会延续很长一段时间，对借贷成本上升前景特别敏感。\nInvesco资产配置研究主管Paul Jackson表示，\"市场对美联储未来几个月和几个季度在缩减资产购买计划方面可能采取的行动有些担忧。\" “美国经济正在非常、非常强劲地反弹，”杰克逊说。“这本身应该会让Jackson感到更舒服，因为它不需要提供像现在这样多的支持。”\n欧洲方面，斯托克欧洲600指数(Stoxx Europe 600)下跌1.9%，受基础资源、油气和科技股等板块拖累。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"EBON":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104295263,"gmtCreate":1620391956952,"gmtModify":1704342994695,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rich ppl will do.....","listText":"Rich ppl will do.....","text":"Rich ppl will do.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104295263","repostId":"1174893125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174893125","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"既有深度，又有响度，研究古典互联网。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"深响","id":"1038713350","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d"},"pubTimestamp":1620383316,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174893125?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 18:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"After the public opinion storm, who is still buying Teslas?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174893125","media":"深响","summary":"特斯拉的潜在客户会因为此次事件远离它吗？","content":"<p>The Tesla rights protection case, which has been on hold for an extremely long time, has made new progress.</p><p>Recently, Ms. Zhang, a Tesla owner in Anyang, Henan Province, issued a statement saying that some false statements made by Tesla and Tesla's Vice President of External Affairs, Tao Lin, without any evidence, have had a serious impact on her personal and family work and life. In response, she has filed a civil complaint with the court against Tesla and Tao Lin.</p><p>After sparking a \"public opinion storm,\" most people are waiting to see Tesla's \"joke.\" After all, there had been precedents before. In 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales declined sharply due to the \"oil scandal\". In the first half of 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales fell by 13.4%. At that time, total automobile sales in the Chinese market maintained a year-on-year growth of 4%, and Dongfeng Honda was one of the few automakers whose sales declined. In 2018, Honda's CR-V sales halved, dragging down Dongfeng Honda's overall sales by 4.1% year-on-year.</p><p>However, prior to this, Tesla had just delivered an impressive \"report card\". In Q1 2021, Tesla's total deliveries reached 185,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%, setting a new record. Revenue was $10.389 billion, a year-over-year increase of 73.6%; The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of RMB 1.052 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 363.4%.</p><p>In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market, three times that of the same period last year, accounting for nearly 37% of global sales. Revenue in China reached $3.043 billion, a significant increase of 238% compared to $900 million in the same period last year, accounting for 29.3% of Tesla's revenue in the first quarter. The Chinese market remains Tesla's second-largest global market, but its size has further shrunk compared to the US market.</p><p>Will Tesla's potential customers stay away from it because of this incident? With these questions in mind, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores.</p><p><b>The number of customers entering the store will not decrease</b></p><p>Since entering the Chinese market, Tesla has been attracting much attention, seemingly possessing a \"volatile nature\". According to incomplete statistics, since 2014, Tesla has been trending on social media more than 230 times, far exceeding that of other automakers.</p><p>In this rights protection incident, unlike the online criticism, the atmosphere among Tesla owners in the \"eye of the storm\" was relatively calm. One car owner said that if Tesla really had safety hazards, this incident would be a \"landmine clearance\" for the car owner; Even if not, I believe the service will improve. \"Musk is an extremist. With such a madman company, anything is possible with its products. Good and bad are not uncommon.\"</p><p>Currently, the sales data for April has not yet been released, so the direct impact of the rights protection on sales cannot yet be reflected. However, after recently visiting several Tesla experience stores in Beijing, including Qiaofu Fangcaodi and South Fourth Ring Road Middle, \"Shenxiang\" found that the number of customers entering the stores has not been significantly affected. In some stores, approximately 7 groups of customers entered to experience the store within 40 minutes.</p><p>Meanwhile, several Tesla employees also said that although they were caught in a media storm, the order situation was not greatly affected. \"On the contrary, it gave Tesla another wave of advertising, which was almost like 'getting it for free'.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51753458e311d7ce553a2768168a8034\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, car owners who recently placed their orders may find that they will have to wait longer to receive their vehicles. Some netizens said that when they ordered the car on April 20, it was shown that it would take 3-5 weeks to pick up the car, but now it is shown that it will take 5-7 weeks. \"I was hoping that someone would cancel the order or postpone the pick-up, so that I could pick up the car sooner.\"</p><p>However, while Tesla is facing \"siege,\" car owners and prospective car owners are also under enormous pressure, and some potential consumers are indeed choosing to wait and see. After all, in addition to being a means of transportation, cars also have an additional social function.</p><p>One netizen commented on the forum, \"Please resolve this quickly, otherwise the car owner will get scolded as well, and I will be helpless. If someone asks me why I still drive a Tesla, I will get angry.\" \"I went to look at the Model 3 today, but I'll just wait and see for now, after all, safety comes first.\"</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also issued a statement saying that it deeply apologized for putting undue pressure on all Tesla owners over the past few days. But subtly, the most common comment on this Weibo post was \"How long have you been in this situation?\"</p><p>Indeed, being a Tesla owner requires a \"strong\" mind. Previously, Tesla had lowered prices several times in order to boost sales as quickly as possible. According to incomplete statistics, Tesla has adjusted its prices more than 10 times since February 2019.</p><p>While this may encourage new consumers to place orders, it has also made existing car owners feel that their relationships have been \"hurt,\" and some owners have even gone to Tesla stores to protect their rights. Netizens like to refer to Tesla owners as \"leeks,\" who \"harvest\" them when needed. The only difference is whether you are a \"new leek\" or an \"old leek\"?</p><p>In contrast, the pricing system of traditional automakers first sets a relatively stable official guide price, and each 4S store will give a partial discount according to the manufacturer's policy and sales target during the specific sales process. Because of the publicly available official guide price and the less transparent actual sales price, a certain balance is maintained between new and old car owners.</p><p>Given the recent pressure on car owners and the May Day holiday, Tesla has launched a benefit for both new and existing car owners: 45 days of free use of EAP (Enhanced Autonomous Driving Assistance), free use of Supercharger stations during the May Day holiday, and a 25% discount on air conditioning filter replacement. This is aimed at both appeasing existing car owners and encouraging consumers to place orders as soon as possible.</p><p><b>Who's buying a Tesla?</b></p><p>Tesla officially entered China in April 2014, when Musk first came to China to deliver products to the first batch of car owners. The first batch of car owners included eight entrepreneurs, including Wang Dongfeng, Li Xiang, Yu Yongfu, Pan Yanming, Xu Liang, and Dong Xiaoli. In addition, IT technology leaders such as Lei Jun and Cao Guowei were also among Tesla's first fans.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bfb0de5018bf54e4ea94b350984b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following years, Tesla's development in China mainly went through three stages:</p><p>The first phase lasted from 2014 to 2019, when sales in China mainly consisted of imported Model S and Model X, with monthly sales hovering around 4,000 units.</p><p>In the second phase, from 2019 to 2020, the Model 3 was officially localized, with prices entering the range below 300,000 yuan and sales remaining stable at over 10,000 units, with the highest exceeding 20,000 units.</p><p>The third phase, from 2021 to the present, has seen the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, with first-quarter sales three times that of the same period last year. In particular, sales in March reached 35,400 units, breaking the monthly sales record in China.</p><p>Currently, Tesla's cumulative sales in China have exceeded 250,000 vehicles. So who exactly is buying Teslas?</p><p>Geographically, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are Tesla's main \"bases\". According to data from compulsory traffic accident liability insurance, 139,000 Teslas were registered nationwide in 2020. Among them, 33,000, 26,000, 17,000, and 14,000 were registered in Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing respectively, accounting for 23.7%, 18.5%, 12.4%, and 10.2% respectively, totaling 64.7%. This also means that the regions with the highest demand for Teslas are still the more developed eastern and coastal areas with license plate restrictions.</p><p>In terms of car owner age, according to a survey by NetEase Auto, Tesla owners are 30.3 years old, which is lower than the user base of many car brands. Among them, car owners aged 31 to 40 accounted for 56%, those aged 25 to 30 accounted for 20%, and even those aged 18 to 24 accounted for 3%. This also means that young people have a high level of acceptance of Tesla.</p><p>From a professional perspective, most Tesla owners work in the digital, technology, electronics and internet industries. They have a certain understanding of the latest electric vehicle and new energy technologies, are more tolerant of some minor problems that may arise, and have a stronger ability to withstand them. Many owners even jokingly call themselves \"leeks\".</p><p>It's worth noting that 83% of Tesla owners own two or more cars, and electric vehicles are not their first. Only 17% of car owners choose a Tesla as their family's first car, mainly because license plate restrictions and current policies in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have spurred this demand among users.</p><p>Although Tesla has suffered various social attacks due to price cuts or tough rhetoric, in the long run, sales will not be significantly affected, which is due to the \"truly appealing\" principle.</p><p>Currently, Tesla offers four models: Model 3, Model Y, Model X, and Model S. Among them, the Model 3 and Model Y are its main models. Tesla's Model 3's competitors are not domestic new energy brands, but luxury mid-size sedans such as the BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Audi A4. The Model Y's \"competitors\" are the BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC, and Audi Q5L.</p><p>In a horizontal comparison, the Model 3 and Model Y perform slightly worse in terms of space, but have obvious advantages in power performance, configuration, and price. Among them, the maximum power and torque of the Tesla Model 3 standard version are higher than those of competing models equipped with traditional powertrains, and it accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h faster; In terms of price, the standard range version of the Model 3 is 19%, 14%, and 19% cheaper than the lower-end versions of the Mercedes-Benz C-Series, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4, respectively. In terms of configuration, the Model 3 comes standard with an active safety system, with a safety level significantly superior to that of competing models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b91c64441840bf2d3250b5605b683f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The market is also tilting towards Tesla, a trend that has already begun to be reflected in the US market. It is understood that in the US market in 2020, Model 3 sales (120,000 units) surpassed the combined sales of the three competing models (90,000 units). Although the Model Y is still in the ramp-up phase (70,000 units), it has surpassed the BMW X3 (60,000 units), the best-selling of the three competitors, and still has great potential for improvement in the future.</p><p>Given the \"temperaments\" of Musk and Tesla, they may cause even greater \"commotion\" in the future, whether it will bring praise or criticism. However, China also needs such a \"catfish,\" not only in the new energy vehicle industry chain, but also in electric vehicle consumption habits and culture.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After the public opinion storm, who is still buying Teslas?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter the public opinion storm, who is still buying Teslas?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1038713350\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">深响 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 18:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Tesla rights protection case, which has been on hold for an extremely long time, has made new progress.</p><p>Recently, Ms. Zhang, a Tesla owner in Anyang, Henan Province, issued a statement saying that some false statements made by Tesla and Tesla's Vice President of External Affairs, Tao Lin, without any evidence, have had a serious impact on her personal and family work and life. In response, she has filed a civil complaint with the court against Tesla and Tao Lin.</p><p>After sparking a \"public opinion storm,\" most people are waiting to see Tesla's \"joke.\" After all, there had been precedents before. In 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales declined sharply due to the \"oil scandal\". In the first half of 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales fell by 13.4%. At that time, total automobile sales in the Chinese market maintained a year-on-year growth of 4%, and Dongfeng Honda was one of the few automakers whose sales declined. In 2018, Honda's CR-V sales halved, dragging down Dongfeng Honda's overall sales by 4.1% year-on-year.</p><p>However, prior to this, Tesla had just delivered an impressive \"report card\". In Q1 2021, Tesla's total deliveries reached 185,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%, setting a new record. Revenue was $10.389 billion, a year-over-year increase of 73.6%; The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of RMB 1.052 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 363.4%.</p><p>In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market, three times that of the same period last year, accounting for nearly 37% of global sales. Revenue in China reached $3.043 billion, a significant increase of 238% compared to $900 million in the same period last year, accounting for 29.3% of Tesla's revenue in the first quarter. The Chinese market remains Tesla's second-largest global market, but its size has further shrunk compared to the US market.</p><p>Will Tesla's potential customers stay away from it because of this incident? With these questions in mind, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores.</p><p><b>The number of customers entering the store will not decrease</b></p><p>Since entering the Chinese market, Tesla has been attracting much attention, seemingly possessing a \"volatile nature\". According to incomplete statistics, since 2014, Tesla has been trending on social media more than 230 times, far exceeding that of other automakers.</p><p>In this rights protection incident, unlike the online criticism, the atmosphere among Tesla owners in the \"eye of the storm\" was relatively calm. One car owner said that if Tesla really had safety hazards, this incident would be a \"landmine clearance\" for the car owner; Even if not, I believe the service will improve. \"Musk is an extremist. With such a madman company, anything is possible with its products. Good and bad are not uncommon.\"</p><p>Currently, the sales data for April has not yet been released, so the direct impact of the rights protection on sales cannot yet be reflected. However, after recently visiting several Tesla experience stores in Beijing, including Qiaofu Fangcaodi and South Fourth Ring Road Middle, \"Shenxiang\" found that the number of customers entering the stores has not been significantly affected. In some stores, approximately 7 groups of customers entered to experience the store within 40 minutes.</p><p>Meanwhile, several Tesla employees also said that although they were caught in a media storm, the order situation was not greatly affected. \"On the contrary, it gave Tesla another wave of advertising, which was almost like 'getting it for free'.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51753458e311d7ce553a2768168a8034\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, car owners who recently placed their orders may find that they will have to wait longer to receive their vehicles. Some netizens said that when they ordered the car on April 20, it was shown that it would take 3-5 weeks to pick up the car, but now it is shown that it will take 5-7 weeks. \"I was hoping that someone would cancel the order or postpone the pick-up, so that I could pick up the car sooner.\"</p><p>However, while Tesla is facing \"siege,\" car owners and prospective car owners are also under enormous pressure, and some potential consumers are indeed choosing to wait and see. After all, in addition to being a means of transportation, cars also have an additional social function.</p><p>One netizen commented on the forum, \"Please resolve this quickly, otherwise the car owner will get scolded as well, and I will be helpless. If someone asks me why I still drive a Tesla, I will get angry.\" \"I went to look at the Model 3 today, but I'll just wait and see for now, after all, safety comes first.\"</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also issued a statement saying that it deeply apologized for putting undue pressure on all Tesla owners over the past few days. But subtly, the most common comment on this Weibo post was \"How long have you been in this situation?\"</p><p>Indeed, being a Tesla owner requires a \"strong\" mind. Previously, Tesla had lowered prices several times in order to boost sales as quickly as possible. According to incomplete statistics, Tesla has adjusted its prices more than 10 times since February 2019.</p><p>While this may encourage new consumers to place orders, it has also made existing car owners feel that their relationships have been \"hurt,\" and some owners have even gone to Tesla stores to protect their rights. Netizens like to refer to Tesla owners as \"leeks,\" who \"harvest\" them when needed. The only difference is whether you are a \"new leek\" or an \"old leek\"?</p><p>In contrast, the pricing system of traditional automakers first sets a relatively stable official guide price, and each 4S store will give a partial discount according to the manufacturer's policy and sales target during the specific sales process. Because of the publicly available official guide price and the less transparent actual sales price, a certain balance is maintained between new and old car owners.</p><p>Given the recent pressure on car owners and the May Day holiday, Tesla has launched a benefit for both new and existing car owners: 45 days of free use of EAP (Enhanced Autonomous Driving Assistance), free use of Supercharger stations during the May Day holiday, and a 25% discount on air conditioning filter replacement. This is aimed at both appeasing existing car owners and encouraging consumers to place orders as soon as possible.</p><p><b>Who's buying a Tesla?</b></p><p>Tesla officially entered China in April 2014, when Musk first came to China to deliver products to the first batch of car owners. The first batch of car owners included eight entrepreneurs, including Wang Dongfeng, Li Xiang, Yu Yongfu, Pan Yanming, Xu Liang, and Dong Xiaoli. In addition, IT technology leaders such as Lei Jun and Cao Guowei were also among Tesla's first fans.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bfb0de5018bf54e4ea94b350984b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following years, Tesla's development in China mainly went through three stages:</p><p>The first phase lasted from 2014 to 2019, when sales in China mainly consisted of imported Model S and Model X, with monthly sales hovering around 4,000 units.</p><p>In the second phase, from 2019 to 2020, the Model 3 was officially localized, with prices entering the range below 300,000 yuan and sales remaining stable at over 10,000 units, with the highest exceeding 20,000 units.</p><p>The third phase, from 2021 to the present, has seen the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, with first-quarter sales three times that of the same period last year. In particular, sales in March reached 35,400 units, breaking the monthly sales record in China.</p><p>Currently, Tesla's cumulative sales in China have exceeded 250,000 vehicles. So who exactly is buying Teslas?</p><p>Geographically, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are Tesla's main \"bases\". According to data from compulsory traffic accident liability insurance, 139,000 Teslas were registered nationwide in 2020. Among them, 33,000, 26,000, 17,000, and 14,000 were registered in Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing respectively, accounting for 23.7%, 18.5%, 12.4%, and 10.2% respectively, totaling 64.7%. This also means that the regions with the highest demand for Teslas are still the more developed eastern and coastal areas with license plate restrictions.</p><p>In terms of car owner age, according to a survey by NetEase Auto, Tesla owners are 30.3 years old, which is lower than the user base of many car brands. Among them, car owners aged 31 to 40 accounted for 56%, those aged 25 to 30 accounted for 20%, and even those aged 18 to 24 accounted for 3%. This also means that young people have a high level of acceptance of Tesla.</p><p>From a professional perspective, most Tesla owners work in the digital, technology, electronics and internet industries. They have a certain understanding of the latest electric vehicle and new energy technologies, are more tolerant of some minor problems that may arise, and have a stronger ability to withstand them. Many owners even jokingly call themselves \"leeks\".</p><p>It's worth noting that 83% of Tesla owners own two or more cars, and electric vehicles are not their first. Only 17% of car owners choose a Tesla as their family's first car, mainly because license plate restrictions and current policies in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have spurred this demand among users.</p><p>Although Tesla has suffered various social attacks due to price cuts or tough rhetoric, in the long run, sales will not be significantly affected, which is due to the \"truly appealing\" principle.</p><p>Currently, Tesla offers four models: Model 3, Model Y, Model X, and Model S. Among them, the Model 3 and Model Y are its main models. Tesla's Model 3's competitors are not domestic new energy brands, but luxury mid-size sedans such as the BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Audi A4. The Model Y's \"competitors\" are the BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC, and Audi Q5L.</p><p>In a horizontal comparison, the Model 3 and Model Y perform slightly worse in terms of space, but have obvious advantages in power performance, configuration, and price. Among them, the maximum power and torque of the Tesla Model 3 standard version are higher than those of competing models equipped with traditional powertrains, and it accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h faster; In terms of price, the standard range version of the Model 3 is 19%, 14%, and 19% cheaper than the lower-end versions of the Mercedes-Benz C-Series, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4, respectively. In terms of configuration, the Model 3 comes standard with an active safety system, with a safety level significantly superior to that of competing models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b91c64441840bf2d3250b5605b683f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The market is also tilting towards Tesla, a trend that has already begun to be reflected in the US market. It is understood that in the US market in 2020, Model 3 sales (120,000 units) surpassed the combined sales of the three competing models (90,000 units). Although the Model Y is still in the ramp-up phase (70,000 units), it has surpassed the BMW X3 (60,000 units), the best-selling of the three competitors, and still has great potential for improvement in the future.</p><p>Given the \"temperaments\" of Musk and Tesla, they may cause even greater \"commotion\" in the future, whether it will bring praise or criticism. However, China also needs such a \"catfish,\" not only in the new energy vehicle industry chain, but also in electric vehicle consumption habits and culture.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7026718c9a78c88d8a7e2e09a6f862","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174893125","content_text":"超长“待机”的特斯拉维权事件，又有了最新进展。\n近日，河南安阳特斯拉车主张女士发布一份声明称，在没有任何证据的情况下，特斯拉公司以及特斯拉对外事务副总裁陶琳发布的一些不实言论，已经对其个人以及家人的工作生活造成了严重的影响。对此，她已向法院递交民事起诉状，起诉特斯拉和陶琳。\n在引发“舆论风暴”后，大部分人都在等着看特斯拉“笑话”。毕竟，此前已经有先例。2018年，东风本田受“机油门”事件的影响，销量大幅下滑。其中，2018年上半年，东风本田的销量下跌13.4%。当时，中国市场汽车总销量保持着4%的同比增长，东风本田也是数不多销量下滑的汽车厂商之一。2018年全年，本田CR-V销量腰斩，拖累东风本田2018年的整体销量同比下滑4.1%。\n不过，在此之前，特斯拉刚交出一份靓丽的“成绩单”。2021年Q1，特斯拉总交付量为18.5万辆，同比增长108.9%，创下历史新高；营收为103.89亿美元，同比增幅达73.6%；实现Non-GAAP下归属于普通股东的净利润10.52亿元，同比增长363.4%。\n其中，一季度中国市场特斯拉交付量达6.9万辆，是去年同期的3倍，占全球销量的近37%；中国地区收入达到30.43亿美元，较去年同期的9亿美元大幅增长238%，占特斯拉一季度营收比例达29.3%。中国市场仍是特斯拉全球第二大市场，但与美国市场的规模进一步缩小。\n特斯拉的潜在客户会因为此次事件远离它吗？带着这样的疑问，“深响”近期走访了几家特斯拉体验店。\n入店人数不减\n特斯拉自进入中国市场后，一直备受关注，似乎有一种“易火体质”。据不完全统计，2014年至今，特斯拉上热搜的次数超过230次，远超其他车企。\n在此次维权事件中，与网络上的“口诛笔伐”不同，“暴风眼”中的特斯拉车主，气氛相对平静许多。一位车主表示，如果特斯拉真有安全隐患，这起事件对车主来说是“排雷”；即使没有，相信服务上也会有所提升，“马斯克是一个极致分子，拥有这样一个狂人的公司，其产品一切都有可能，好的坏的都不稀奇。”\n目前，4月的销售数据尚未出炉，所以维权对销量的直接影响还无从体现。不过，“深响”近期走访了北京侨福芳草地、南四环中路在内的几家特斯拉体验店后发现，其客户入店量并未受到太大影响。部分门店在40分钟内，大约有7组客人进店体验。\n同时，多位特斯拉员工也表示，虽然深陷舆论漩涡，但订单情况并未受太大影响，“反而给特斯拉又做了一波广告，几乎是‘白嫖’”。\n\n另外，最近定车的车主可能会发现，需要等待更长时间才能拿到车。有网友表示，4月20号订车时候，当时显示要3-5周就可以提车，但现在显示要5-7周，“本来还指望有人退订或推迟提车，自己好能早点提到车呢。”\n不过，在特斯拉遭遇“围攻”的同时，车主和准车主也承受着巨大的压力，的确有部分潜在消费者选择观望。毕竟，车除了是一种交通工具外，还多了一层社交的功能。\n有网友在论坛表示，“快点解决吧，要不然车主跟着挨骂，我就无奈了，是个人就问我怎么还开特斯拉，我都要急眼了”；“今天去看了下Model 3，不过还是先观望吧，毕竟安全第一嘛”。\n与此同时，特斯拉也发表声明称，过去几日，让所有特斯拉车友们承受了不该承受的压力，对此她们感到万分抱歉。但微妙的是，在这条微博下，评论最多的是“你这种情况多久了？”\n确实，当特斯拉车主，需要有“强大”的内心。此前，特斯拉为了尽快提升销量，进行了多次降价。据不完全统计，从2019年2月以来，特斯拉调价超过10次。\n这虽然会带动新消费者下单，但也让老车主觉得感情受到“伤害”，甚至部分车主跑到特斯拉门店维权。网友喜欢称呼特斯拉车主为“韭菜”，需要的时候就“割”一茬。唯一不同的是，你是“新韭菜”还是“老韭菜”？\n相比之下，传统车企的价格体系，首先是制定一个相对稳定的官方指导价，各家4S店在具体销售过程中，会根据厂家政策和销量目标给出部分折扣。因为公开的官方指导价，以及不太透明的实际销售价格，所以在新老车主之间维持了某种平衡。\n鉴于最近车主承受的压力和五一小长假，特斯拉推出了针对新老车主的福利：EAP（增强版自动辅助驾驶）45天免费使用权，五一假期超级充电站免费使用，空调滤芯更换7.5折。这背后是一方面安抚老车主的情绪，另一方面也希望能刺激消费者尽早下订单。\n谁在买特斯拉？\n特斯拉正式进入中国，是在2014年4月，当时马斯克首次来到中国，向首批车主交付产品。第一批车主是包括汪东风、李想、俞永福、潘燕明、许亮、董晓栗等8位企业家。除此之外，雷军、曹国伟等IT科技界领袖也是特斯拉的首批粉丝。\n\n在随后的几年时间中，特斯拉在中国的发展，主要经历了三个阶段：\n第一阶段是从2014年到2019年，当时在中国销售主要以进口的Model S和 Model X为主，月销量销量徘徊在4000辆左右；\n第二阶段从2019年到2020年，Model 3正式国产化，价格进入30万以下区间，销量稳定在1万辆以上，最高突破2万辆；\n第三阶段是从2021年至今，伴随国产 Model Y 上市，一季度销量是去年同期的3倍。特别是3月份销量为3.54万辆，刷新在中国单月销量纪录。\n目前，特斯拉在中国销量累计超过了25万辆，那到底谁在购买特斯拉呢？\n从地域上来看，北上广是特斯拉的主要“阵地”。根据交强险数据，2020 年全国特斯拉上牌量为13.9万辆，其中在上海、广东、浙江、北京四地的上牌量分别为3.3万辆、2.6万辆、1.7万辆、1.4万辆，占比分别为 23.7%、18.5%、12.4%、10.2%，合计达 64.7%。这也意味着，当前对特斯拉需求较高的地区，仍为东部及沿海较发达且限牌的地区。\n从车主年龄上来看，根据网易汽车调查，特斯拉车主为30.3岁，这低于很多汽车品牌的用户群。其中，31岁到40岁的车主占比为56%，25岁到30岁占比为20%，甚至18岁到24岁的用户数量也占到了3%。这也意味着，年轻群体对于特斯拉的接受度比较高。\n职业上来看，特斯拉车主多是从事数码、科技、电子及互联网行业，他们对最新的电动车和新能源技术有一定的了解，对可能出现的一些小问题包容度更高，同时承受能力也更强，很多车主甚至自嘲“韭菜”。\n值得一提的是，83%的特斯拉车主拥有两辆或更多的车，电动车并非第一辆车。只有17%的车主，将特斯拉作为家庭的第一辆车，这主要是因为北上广等城市限号、现行政策，催生了这部分用户需求。\n虽然特斯拉因为降价或强硬言论，遭受各种“社会毒打”，但长远来看，销量并不会受到太大影响，这背后是“真香”定律。\n目前，特斯拉在售车型分为Model 3、Model Y、Model X、Model S四款车型。其中，Model 3和Model Y是其主力车型。特斯拉的Model 3的竞争对手，并非是国产新能源品牌，而是宝马3系、奔驰C级、奥迪A4等豪华中型轿车；Model Y的“对手”则是宝马X3、奔驰GLC和奥迪Q5L。\n横向对比来看，Model 3 和Model Y除了空间方面表现略逊，在动力性能、配置和价格上优势明显。其中，特斯拉 Model 3 标准版的最大功率与扭矩，高于搭载传统动力总成的竞品车型，百公里加速更快；从价格上看，Model 3 标准续航版比低配版的奔驰 C 系、宝马 3 系、奥迪 A4 还便宜 19%、14%和 19%；从配置来看， Model 3 全系标配主动安全系统，安全等级显著优于竞品车型。\n\n市场也正在向特斯拉倾斜，这一趋势在美国市场已经开始体现。据了解，2020 年的美国市场， Model 3 销量（12万辆）已实现对三款竞品销量总和的超越（9万辆）；Model Y 虽然仍在爬坡期（7万辆），但也超过了三款竞品中卖的最好的宝马 X3（6万辆），未来仍有很大提升潜力。\n依照马斯克和特斯拉的“脾气”，未来可能会闹出更大“动静”，不管是会带来褒奖还是批评。不过，中国也需要这样一条“鲶鱼”，不仅仅是新能源汽车产业链，也包括电动车消费习惯和文化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104298257,"gmtCreate":1620391735079,"gmtModify":1704342990358,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I strongly agree.....","listText":"I strongly agree.....","text":"I strongly agree.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104298257","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108545235,"gmtCreate":1620045768127,"gmtModify":1704337794251,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really???","listText":"Really???","text":"Really???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108545235","repostId":"1148368936","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148368936","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620043274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148368936?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 20:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How long will the global chip shortage last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148368936","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","content":"<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global automotive industry.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>In their latest report, analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore stated that this situation may continue into 2022.</p><p>They believe that this will hinder production for many automakers, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The second-quarter and full-year production and profit forecasts released last week can be considered the first \"profit warning\" for the automotive industry amid the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>Following the release of the first-quarter report, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that planned production in the second quarter would be forced to decrease by 50% due to the potential worsening of the chip shortage, far exceeding the 17% decline in the first quarter. According to its Chief Financial Officer John Lawler, Ford will cut production by approximately 1.1 million vehicles throughout 2021 due to chip issues, resulting in a loss of $2.5 billion.</p><p>In late March, a fire at a factory owned by Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics forced production to halt, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore believe that,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"most severely affected example of chip supply disruptions,\" which is a \"reality test\" for investors investing in OEMs.</b></p><p>However, Ford had previously been optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, believing that chip supply would bottom out in the second quarter and improve for the remainder of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore say now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the electric vehicle sector and \"buy on dips.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How long will the global chip shortage last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow long will the global chip shortage last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-03 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global automotive industry.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>In their latest report, analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore stated that this situation may continue into 2022.</p><p>They believe that this will hinder production for many automakers, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The second-quarter and full-year production and profit forecasts released last week can be considered the first \"profit warning\" for the automotive industry amid the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>Following the release of the first-quarter report, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that planned production in the second quarter would be forced to decrease by 50% due to the potential worsening of the chip shortage, far exceeding the 17% decline in the first quarter. According to its Chief Financial Officer John Lawler, Ford will cut production by approximately 1.1 million vehicles throughout 2021 due to chip issues, resulting in a loss of $2.5 billion.</p><p>In late March, a fire at a factory owned by Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics forced production to halt, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore believe that,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"most severely affected example of chip supply disruptions,\" which is a \"reality test\" for investors investing in OEMs.</b></p><p>However, Ford had previously been optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, believing that chip supply would bottom out in the second quarter and improve for the remainder of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore say now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the electric vehicle sector and \"buy on dips.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148368936","content_text":"芯片供应短缺持续困扰全球汽车业，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas和Joseph Moore在最新报告中表示，这一局面或将持续到2022年。\n他们认为，许多汽车制造商将因此生产受阻，而福特汽车上周公布的二季度和全年产量、盈利预期，算是“芯片荒”下汽车业的第一个“盈利预警”。\n一季报公布后，福特CEO Jim Farley预计，由于芯片短缺可能进一步恶化，二季度计划产量将被迫减少50%，远高于一季度17%的降幅。其首席财务官John Lawler表示，2021年全年，福特将因芯片问题减产汽车约110万辆，损失25亿美元。\n3月底，福特芯片供应商瑞萨电子(Renesas Electronics)旗下一家工厂发生火灾后被迫停产，加剧全球芯片短缺。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore认为，由于规划不善，福特可能是受到“芯片供应中断影响最严重例子”，这对投资OEM代工的投资者来说，是一次“现实的检验”。\n不过，福特此前对下半年表现持乐观预期，认为芯片供应将在二季度触底，并在今年剩余时间内有所改善。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore表示，现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108095871,"gmtCreate":1619956987093,"gmtModify":1704336758995,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorIdStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".....","listText":".....","text":".....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108095871","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article is from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>\"Macroeconomic\".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2021, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><b>Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b>1) In Q1 2021, U.S. personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. This demonstrates the immediate stimulating effect of the $1,400 subsidy in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption after the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b>In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter. 1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the supply-demand gap in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventories. This means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies have driven up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap has led to high import growth.</b>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b>We believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination process and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects. Personal consumption expenditures: The first quarter is expected to be the peak of goods consumption, and service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the strength of the subsequent service sector recovery. Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment requires attention to the subsequent progress of the pandemic. Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; Changes in private inventories may not improve until unemployment benefits end in September. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>II. Global Macro Data</b></p><p><b>This week's high-frequency data</b>New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>epidemic</b>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States has decreased.</p><p><b>Demand</b>Retail sales in Japan rebounded significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and commodities</b>Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>The U.S. existing home sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>Focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, slightly lower than market expectations.</b></p><p>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and by 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b></p><p>In Q1 2021, government subsidies of up to $2,000 per person boosted consumer spending; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the initial optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, US personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. It jumped from being the biggest drag on GDP in Q4 to the biggest contributor, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of both the $600 subsidy in January and the $1,400 subsidy that began to be distributed in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while the year-on-year growth rate of non-durable goods slowed slightly (4.3%), indicating that the US$1,400 subsidy in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Consumption of goods and services jointly drove high growth in personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In Q1 2021, commodity consumption contributed 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. This was mainly due to the renewed high growth of durable goods under fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In Q1 2021, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared to Q4, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP improved only slightly by 0.3 percentage points. 2) Service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. Although service consumption still had a negative contribution of -1.4% to GDP in Q1 2021, it improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The improvement was greater than that of durable goods consumption, demonstrating that service consumption has greater resilience in improving under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and easing of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b></p><p>The impact of non-residential investment on GDP growth has improved significantly, while private inventory has become a drag. In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the gap between supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. The main factor dragging down private investment was changes in private inventories (a drag of 0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term. In Q1 2021, residential investment's contribution to GDP remained stable. However, with the gradual rise in mortgage rates since 2021, the US real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction spending and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that the contribution of residential investment to GDP will gradually decline in the future.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drove up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap led to high import growth.</b></p><p>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight recovery in US industrial production. However, this still pales in comparison to the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. In reality, it reflects the widening supply-demand gap in Q1 2021 due to excessive US fiscal subsidies. 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening supply and demand gap in the United States is the expansion of imports.</p><p>Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter; attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination progress and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditures: 1) Although goods consumption showed extremely strong momentum in Q1 2021, we expect the first quarter to be the peak of goods consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies subside; 2) Service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases, but the global pandemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the intensity of the subsequent recovery of the service sector.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driver of the improvement in non-residential investment in Q1 2021 was positive economic expectations. From the current perspective, the global pandemic is the core factor determining the strength of economic recovery, and the subsequent progress of the pandemic needs to be monitored. 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventory, i.e., the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current supply-demand gap in the United States can be alleviated. From the current perspective, it may not be until after unemployment benefits end in September that a significant trend of bridging between the supply and demand sides of the United States can emerge, thereby driving inventory investment.</p><p>Government spending and net exports: 1) With the continued payment of unemployment benefits in the second and third quarters, government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. If the US jobs program or the US family program can be implemented within the year, it will also boost government spending levels; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of US industrial production, which, as mentioned above, may not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the United States declined this week. The average number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 over the past seven days. As of April 29, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 150 million, the cumulative number of deaths reached 3.14 million, and the cumulative number of recoveries reached 120 million. Over the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), the United States and the United Kingdom reported 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases, respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel had the highest average number of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people globally, at 121.1 doses per 100 people, followed by the United States at 70.2 doses per 100 people and the United Kingdom at 70.9 doses per 100 people. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people globally, at 58.7%, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom at 29.3% and 20.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales rebounded significantly year-on-year.</b></p><p>Both retail and wholesale sales in Japan saw significant year-on-year growth. Japan's retail sales index rose 5.3% year-on-year in March, with textiles and apparel retailing at 15.8% year-on-year and wholesale sales at 1.0% year-on-year in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and consumption of semi-durable goods increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales rose 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year in March, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest at 35.5% year-on-year. Durable goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, while non-durable goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and Employment: New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and new order growth both increased month-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index rose both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a continued recovery in industry. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production rose 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from the previous week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries rose by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly that week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. In the week ending April 24, initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week; The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million in the week ending April 17, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: US imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March. U.S. exports rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points to 11.5% in March from the previous month, while imports rose by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance was -$90.59 billion in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week ending April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2 per barrel; The weekly average price of Brent crude rose to $66.6 per barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real Estate: The US existing home sales index rose year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for the eighth consecutive month in February. The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-over-year to 246.0 in February, marking its eighth consecutive month of gains. The U.S. existing home sales index rose sharply by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>New home starts and construction orders in Japan rose sharply in March. New home starts in Japan in March rose 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, while construction orders in March rose 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell 18.2 to 706.6, indicating a slight cooling of housing market activity.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained basically stable.</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices remained basically stable. On April 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate meeting statement. At the post-meeting press conference, Powell said that it would take some time to see substantial progress, and that the current scale of asset purchases would be maintained before that. It was not yet time to discuss Taper, and the US Dollar Index continued to decline. As of April 29, the the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from the previous week; The euro and the pound sterling closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 against the dollar respectively (pound sterling exchange rate data as of the 28th), appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; The Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, up 1.7% from last week, as the Bank of Canada took the lead in tapering. The average weekly price of gold in London this week was $1,774.8 per ounce, basically stable from last week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWas the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article is from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>\"Macroeconomic\".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2021, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><b>Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b>1) In Q1 2021, U.S. personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. This demonstrates the immediate stimulating effect of the $1,400 subsidy in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption after the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b>In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter. 1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the supply-demand gap in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventories. This means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies have driven up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap has led to high import growth.</b>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b>We believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination process and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects. Personal consumption expenditures: The first quarter is expected to be the peak of goods consumption, and service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the strength of the subsequent service sector recovery. Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment requires attention to the subsequent progress of the pandemic. Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; Changes in private inventories may not improve until unemployment benefits end in September. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>II. Global Macro Data</b></p><p><b>This week's high-frequency data</b>New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>epidemic</b>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States has decreased.</p><p><b>Demand</b>Retail sales in Japan rebounded significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and commodities</b>Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>The U.S. existing home sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>Focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, slightly lower than market expectations.</b></p><p>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and by 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b></p><p>In Q1 2021, government subsidies of up to $2,000 per person boosted consumer spending; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the initial optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, US personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. It jumped from being the biggest drag on GDP in Q4 to the biggest contributor, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of both the $600 subsidy in January and the $1,400 subsidy that began to be distributed in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while the year-on-year growth rate of non-durable goods slowed slightly (4.3%), indicating that the US$1,400 subsidy in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Consumption of goods and services jointly drove high growth in personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In Q1 2021, commodity consumption contributed 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. This was mainly due to the renewed high growth of durable goods under fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In Q1 2021, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared to Q4, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP improved only slightly by 0.3 percentage points. 2) Service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. Although service consumption still had a negative contribution of -1.4% to GDP in Q1 2021, it improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The improvement was greater than that of durable goods consumption, demonstrating that service consumption has greater resilience in improving under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and easing of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b></p><p>The impact of non-residential investment on GDP growth has improved significantly, while private inventory has become a drag. In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the gap between supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. The main factor dragging down private investment was changes in private inventories (a drag of 0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term. In Q1 2021, residential investment's contribution to GDP remained stable. However, with the gradual rise in mortgage rates since 2021, the US real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction spending and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that the contribution of residential investment to GDP will gradually decline in the future.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drove up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap led to high import growth.</b></p><p>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight recovery in US industrial production. However, this still pales in comparison to the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. In reality, it reflects the widening supply-demand gap in Q1 2021 due to excessive US fiscal subsidies. 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening supply and demand gap in the United States is the expansion of imports.</p><p>Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter; attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination progress and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditures: 1) Although goods consumption showed extremely strong momentum in Q1 2021, we expect the first quarter to be the peak of goods consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies subside; 2) Service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases, but the global pandemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the intensity of the subsequent recovery of the service sector.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driver of the improvement in non-residential investment in Q1 2021 was positive economic expectations. From the current perspective, the global pandemic is the core factor determining the strength of economic recovery, and the subsequent progress of the pandemic needs to be monitored. 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventory, i.e., the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current supply-demand gap in the United States can be alleviated. From the current perspective, it may not be until after unemployment benefits end in September that a significant trend of bridging between the supply and demand sides of the United States can emerge, thereby driving inventory investment.</p><p>Government spending and net exports: 1) With the continued payment of unemployment benefits in the second and third quarters, government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. If the US jobs program or the US family program can be implemented within the year, it will also boost government spending levels; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of US industrial production, which, as mentioned above, may not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the United States declined this week. The average number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 over the past seven days. As of April 29, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 150 million, the cumulative number of deaths reached 3.14 million, and the cumulative number of recoveries reached 120 million. Over the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), the United States and the United Kingdom reported 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases, respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel had the highest average number of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people globally, at 121.1 doses per 100 people, followed by the United States at 70.2 doses per 100 people and the United Kingdom at 70.9 doses per 100 people. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people globally, at 58.7%, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom at 29.3% and 20.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales rebounded significantly year-on-year.</b></p><p>Both retail and wholesale sales in Japan saw significant year-on-year growth. Japan's retail sales index rose 5.3% year-on-year in March, with textiles and apparel retailing at 15.8% year-on-year and wholesale sales at 1.0% year-on-year in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and consumption of semi-durable goods increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales rose 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year in March, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest at 35.5% year-on-year. Durable goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, while non-durable goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and Employment: New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and new order growth both increased month-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index rose both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a continued recovery in industry. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production rose 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from the previous week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries rose by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly that week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. In the week ending April 24, initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week; The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million in the week ending April 17, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: US imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March. U.S. exports rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points to 11.5% in March from the previous month, while imports rose by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance was -$90.59 billion in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week ending April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2 per barrel; The weekly average price of Brent crude rose to $66.6 per barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real Estate: The US existing home sales index rose year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for the eighth consecutive month in February. The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-over-year to 246.0 in February, marking its eighth consecutive month of gains. The U.S. existing home sales index rose sharply by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>New home starts and construction orders in Japan rose sharply in March. New home starts in Japan in March rose 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, while construction orders in March rose 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell 18.2 to 706.6, indicating a slight cooling of housing market activity.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained basically stable.</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices remained basically stable. On April 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate meeting statement. At the post-meeting press conference, Powell said that it would take some time to see substantial progress, and that the current scale of asset purchases would be maintained before that. It was not yet time to discuss Taper, and the US Dollar Index continued to decline. As of April 29, the the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from the previous week; The euro and the pound sterling closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 against the dollar respectively (pound sterling exchange rate data as of the 28th), appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; The Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, up 1.7% from last week, as the Bank of Canada took the lead in tapering. The average weekly price of gold in London this week was $1,774.8 per ounce, basically stable from last week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}