ckh personal page - To The Moon

ckh

ckh

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2024-09-08

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

2024-06-09

Great article, would you like to share it?

@Shyon:EV Giants - Tesla BYD Xiaomi Technical Analysis

2024-02-26

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ 😢

2023-07-01

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@JC888:Will ESG ETFs - $ESGU, $VSGX Fall? BlackRock CEO Warns!

2023-06-13

Give us more 0.5 to play

2022-12-09

$Alphabet(GOOG)$

2022-12-06

Great event and hope everyone can win some points during this world cup season

2022-12-06

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@TigerEvents:Join Tiger's Football Season, share the prizes worth up to US$200,000

2022-12-06

Ok

OpenAI Impact Analysis: Microsoft, Google And Nvidia

2022-11-28

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$

2022-11-27

Ok

@Longacres_Finance: Best Dividend Aristocrats This Year!From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al2GuHPu37I

2022-11-27

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$

2022-11-15

Ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-11-09

Ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-11-09

Ok

Even At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy

2022-11-06

Really messy

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-21

Alright

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-21

Ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-09-22

$S&P 500(.SPX)$$S&P 500(.SPX)$

2022-09-21

$BYD COMPANY(01211)$

Go to Tiger App to see more news

Invest in Global Markets with Tiger Brokers!

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347255529738536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315028424683600,"gmtCreate":1717942684280,"gmtModify":1717942687709,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315028424683600","repostId":"314479744463136","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":314479744463136,"gmtCreate":1717808619352,"gmtModify":1718181460060,"author":{"id":"3581734406950755","authorId":"3581734406950755","name":"Shyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3423cbda71d7a89cd2f2f2d6744330","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581734406950755","authorIdStr":"3581734406950755"},"themes":[],"title":"EV Giants - Tesla BYD Xiaomi Technical Analysis","htmlText":"As climate change continues to accelerate and its devastating impacts increase, we must act now to reduce our carbon emissions. Since the transport sector contributes to global emissions, transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) may significantly aid countries in achieving their net-zero goals. While much attention is given to the consumer market, the role of commercial vehicles, and specifically large-scale fleets, is crucial.&nbsp; The electric vehicle revolution is gaining momentum thanks to various factors such as cost reduction, technological advancements and government support.&nbsp; TESLA&nbsp; Over the past 18 months, Tesla has missed its sales goals and seen its share price fall, as Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk makes dramatic decisions about the company's future. Musk cut the","listText":"As climate change continues to accelerate and its devastating impacts increase, we must act now to reduce our carbon emissions. Since the transport sector contributes to global emissions, transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) may significantly aid countries in achieving their net-zero goals. While much attention is given to the consumer market, the role of commercial vehicles, and specifically large-scale fleets, is crucial.&nbsp; The electric vehicle revolution is gaining momentum thanks to various factors such as cost reduction, technological advancements and government support.&nbsp; TESLA&nbsp; Over the past 18 months, Tesla has missed its sales goals and seen its share price fall, as Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk makes dramatic decisions about the company's future. Musk cut the","text":"As climate change continues to accelerate and its devastating impacts increase, we must act now to reduce our carbon emissions. Since the transport sector contributes to global emissions, transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) may significantly aid countries in achieving their net-zero goals. While much attention is given to the consumer market, the role of commercial vehicles, and specifically large-scale fleets, is crucial. The electric vehicle revolution is gaining momentum thanks to various factors such as cost reduction, technological advancements and government support. TESLA Over the past 18 months, Tesla has missed its sales goals and seen its share price fall, as Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk makes dramatic decisions about the company's future. Musk cut the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7669706ca5939dc8f26d1f58760ac6d5","width":"2800","height":"1260"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ffe5aada2f053f96422c810750150b","width":"2800","height":"1260"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ee4f47badc4c10e9e8a304e17c68331","width":"2800","height":"1260"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314479744463136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278232258810120,"gmtCreate":1708955602475,"gmtModify":1708955607535,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ </a> 😢&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ </a> 😢&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ 😢","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e281a04ff0e4570ea92be693134f2aea","width":"894","height":"1508"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278232258810120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193316295954432,"gmtCreate":1688225978527,"gmtModify":1688225981878,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193316295954432","repostId":"193234694537336","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":193234694537336,"gmtCreate":1688205967185,"gmtModify":1688208682536,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"Will ESG ETFs - $ESGU, $VSGX Fall? BlackRock CEO Warns!","htmlText":"When I came across the above article, I&nbsp;sat up&nbsp;quickly,&nbsp;click&nbsp;on it and&nbsp;savour&nbsp;the article in one sitting. When the world’s&nbsp;largest&nbsp;assets manager, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BLK\">$BlackRock(BLK)$</a> CEO, Mr Larry Finks said something so “profound”, we need to pay close attention especially when distilled to its essence, it is about&nbsp;money &amp; investments. My usual prelude before deep diving into the main content. What is&nbsp;Environmental,&nbsp;Social &amp; corporate&nbsp;Governance (ESG)? It is an&nbsp;approach&nbsp;to investing that recommends taking&nbsp;(a)&nbsp;environmental issues,&nbsp;(b)&nbsp;social issues and&nbsp;(c)&nbsp;governance issues into account when deciding which companies to invest in. It has become&nbsp;increasing","listText":"When I came across the above article, I&nbsp;sat up&nbsp;quickly,&nbsp;click&nbsp;on it and&nbsp;savour&nbsp;the article in one sitting. When the world’s&nbsp;largest&nbsp;assets manager, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BLK\">$BlackRock(BLK)$</a> CEO, Mr Larry Finks said something so “profound”, we need to pay close attention especially when distilled to its essence, it is about&nbsp;money &amp; investments. My usual prelude before deep diving into the main content. What is&nbsp;Environmental,&nbsp;Social &amp; corporate&nbsp;Governance (ESG)? It is an&nbsp;approach&nbsp;to investing that recommends taking&nbsp;(a)&nbsp;environmental issues,&nbsp;(b)&nbsp;social issues and&nbsp;(c)&nbsp;governance issues into account when deciding which companies to invest in. It has become&nbsp;increasing","text":"When I came across the above article, I sat up quickly, click on it and savour the article in one sitting. When the world’s largest assets manager, $BlackRock(BLK)$ CEO, Mr Larry Finks said something so “profound”, we need to pay close attention especially when distilled to its essence, it is about money & investments. My usual prelude before deep diving into the main content. What is Environmental, Social & corporate Governance (ESG)? It is an approach to investing that recommends taking (a) environmental issues, (b) social issues and (c) governance issues into account when deciding which companies to invest in. It has become increasing","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daeb75e0de512a0f563acaf104d66f75","width":"2271","height":"141"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5001df93c54d0e165185b15b3a803c6c","width":"853","height":"173"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3759be8dc49b19f3f55e20cad094c83","width":"938","height":"200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193234694537336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186686737408120,"gmtCreate":1686617225025,"gmtModify":1686617228628,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Give us more 0.5 to play","listText":"Give us more 0.5 to play","text":"Give us more 0.5 to play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186686737408120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929965003,"gmtCreate":1670588229302,"gmtModify":1676538399568,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Alphabet(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929965003","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967232535,"gmtCreate":1670333145528,"gmtModify":1676538345720,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great event and hope everyone can win some points during this world cup season","listText":"Great event and hope everyone can win some points during this world cup season","text":"Great event and hope everyone can win some points during this world cup season","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967232535","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967231954,"gmtCreate":1670332553779,"gmtModify":1676538345568,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967231954","repostId":"9963969638","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9963969638,"gmtCreate":1668567458425,"gmtModify":1677745765888,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger's Football Season, share the prizes worth up to US$200,000","htmlText":"This year is the year of football, the Qatar World Cup, AFF championship, make the following days a big carnival for football fans all around the world!&nbsp;While you enjoy your football carnival, don't forget to join in Tiger's Football Season on Tiger Trade App, and share the prizes worth up to USD 200,000!Play the \"Perfect Goals\" game with us, and feel the score moment by only pressing the button.Keep completing the daily tasks and play the game, win more points to redeem stock vouchers worth up to USD 2,000 or AFF tickets, and the top prize - the free journey of watching the AFF finals!You can also predict a football match of the World Cup or AFF Championship, and cheer for your home team.Besides, you may obtain the Tiger Football Card by participating in the campaign every day.Goalke","listText":"This year is the year of football, the Qatar World Cup, AFF championship, make the following days a big carnival for football fans all around the world!&nbsp;While you enjoy your football carnival, don't forget to join in Tiger's Football Season on Tiger Trade App, and share the prizes worth up to USD 200,000!Play the \"Perfect Goals\" game with us, and feel the score moment by only pressing the button.Keep completing the daily tasks and play the game, win more points to redeem stock vouchers worth up to USD 2,000 or AFF tickets, and the top prize - the free journey of watching the AFF finals!You can also predict a football match of the World Cup or AFF Championship, and cheer for your home team.Besides, you may obtain the Tiger Football Card by participating in the campaign every day.Goalke","text":"This year is the year of football, the Qatar World Cup, AFF championship, make the following days a big carnival for football fans all around the world! 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While GPT-3 has already been deployed across hundreds of applications since its introduction, which enables the generation of “a text completion in natural language” in response to simple text prompts from humans, the latest release of the ChatGPT chatbot’s availability to the public underscores the model’s significant improvements since.</p><p>A previous beta of the chatbot, which was only made available to a handful of users for testing purposes, was ladened with limitations, spanning the inability to reject requests that do not make sense or are inappropriate, to a general lack of common sense. While some limitations remain in today’s version of ChatGPT that has been released to the public for trial, it has come a long way with significant improvements to its ability to “answer follow-up questions, admit its mistakes, challenge incorrect premises, and reject inappropriate requests”.</p><p>The impressive capabilities of ChatGPT today brings into question the viability of near-and-dear systems like Google Search(GOOG, GOOGL) which is intricately linked to our day-to-day personal settings, as well as opportunities to facilitators of high-performance computing (“HPC”) spanning hyperscalers like Microsoft to upstream chipmakers like Nvidia(NVDA). The following analysis will provide an overview of OpenAI’s latest developments when it comes to language models, as well as its longer-term implications on technology bellwethers today including Google, Microsoft and Nvidia.</p><p><b>What Is ChatGPT?</b></p><p>OpenAI is a non-profit AI technology development platform “co-founded by Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and [Sam] Altman with other investors”, including Microsoft which invested$1 billion into the company in 2019. The company has released public access to its chatbot, ChatGPT, last week, spurring a slew of AI-generated dialogues and responses spanning simple logic Q&amp;A to well-versed essays and poems that could pass as an “A- grade” college research paper, that have overtaken the internet.</p><p>ChatGPT is based on the GPT-3 language model introduced in 2020, which is capable of mimicking human responses to simple text prompts. GPT-3 is a so-called “pre-trained” model that leverages an existing set of trained and fine-tuned data to make inferences via AI/ML. This generally addresses three main limitations previously identified in predecessor language models:</p><ul><li><b>Practicality</b>: It eliminates the need for large volumes of data that would be costly to label before being used in training the language model. By using a pre-trained model, GPT-3 can generate adequate responses by using “only a few labelled samples”, thus enabling greater cost- and time-efficiencies in development.</li><li><b>Elimination of “overfitting” and overly specific responses</b>: Training a model with large volumes of data risks “overfitting”, or too much data that instead confuses a model from performing accurately. Alternatively, training a model with large volumes of data could also eliminate its ability to “generalize” beyond a specific domain, thus limiting its performance capacity.</li></ul><blockquote>When machine learning algorithms are constructed, they leverage a sample dataset to train the model. However, when the model trains for too long on sample data or when the model is too complex, it can start to learn the “noise,” or irrelevant information, within the dataset. When the model memorizes the noise and fits too closely to the training set, the model becomes “overfitted,” and it is unable to generalize well to new data.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:IBM</blockquote><ul><li><b>Enables dialogue via simple prompts</b>: Pre-trained models like GPT-3 also do “not require large supervised data sets to learn most language tasks”, mimicking human responses to typically brief directives.</li></ul><p>Consisting of 175 billion parameters, GPT-3 is more than 100x larger than its predecessor, “GPT-2”, which consists of only 1.5 billion parameters, and 10x larger than Microsoft’s “Turing NLG” language model introduced in 2020, which consists of 17 billion parameters. This suggests greater performance and applicability by GPT-3, which is further corroborated by its ability to outperform “fine-tuned state-of-the-art algorithms” (“SOTA”) spanning other natural language processing (“NLP”) systems, speech recognition and recommendation systems. With 175 billion parameters, GPT-3 can achieve response accuracy of more than 80% in a “few-shots” setting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9418f9e7893873cf68b89b5d94d6d51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>&#34;Larger models make increasingly efficient use of in-context information&#34;(Language Models are Few-Shot Learners)</p><p>Few-shot learning essentially enables a pre-trained language model like GPT-3 to “generalize over new categories of data by using only a few labelled samples per class”, and is a “paradigm of meta-learning” or “learning-to-learn”:</p><blockquote>One potential route addressing [limitations of NLP systems] is meta-learning, which in the context of language models means the model develops a broad set of skills and pattern recognition abilities at training time, and then uses those abilities at inference time to rapidly adapt to or recognize the desired task. In-context learning uses the text input of a pretrained language model as a form of tasks specification. The model is conditioned on a natural language instruction and/or a few demonstrations of the task and is then expected to complete further instances of the tasks simply by predicting what comes next.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: “Language Models are Few-Shot Learners”</blockquote><p>As mentioned in the earlier section, ChatGPT has improved significantly from the GPT-3 API closed beta launched in 2020, which only few had access to. Just merely two years ago, the language model did not know how to reject nonsense questions or say “I don’t know”:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db78f273f81357a7e60e71ba1f6a331e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Example of GPT-3 API Inefficiencies at Close Beta Phase(lacker.io)</p><p>Fast-forward to today, not only can the model reject nonsense questions and inappropriate requests, ChatGPT can also make suggestions spanning simple one-liner responses to prose-form essays:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5afad8267f4a30ef0a011d52bae86926\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>ChatGPT vs. InstructGPT(OpenAI)</p><p>Yet, limitations remain, nonetheless, including the chatbot’s rare regurgitation of repeated words in list answers, ability tobypass rules programmed to prevent discussion on illegal activities, and provision of incorrect and/or inaccurateresponses.</p><p><b>A Threat To Google?</b></p><p>The capabilities of ChatGPT underscores its potential in becoming a threat to Google’s search engine, which is currently the biggest ad distribution channel and revenue driver for the company. With ChatGPT recently becoming an open platform available to the public for free trial, many are realizing that the chatbot is not only capable of generating fairly accurate search results and/or answering fact-based Q&amp;A requests, but also in-depth analyses and suggestions. ChatGPT is essentially a take-home homework buddy for some, given its capability of generating quality work like “take-home 1,000 word undergraduate essays” (which, let’s be honest, primarily rely on research scoured through Google Search) that outperforms those of an average student’s.</p><p>These capabilities are sufficient to put Google on notice, as they put the Search leader at risk of becoming obsolete. OpenAI’s GPT-3 model essentially addresses the call frommore than 40%of corporate employees across the U.S. today for low-code techniques critical in creating value in the data-driven era, while potentially eliminating the need for Google Search altogether if commercialized.</p><p>But Google has not completely missed the beat when it comes to AI developments. As we had discussed in a previous coverage, Google is currently working on its own “Language Model of Dialogue Applications”, or LaMDA 2 language model (if you’ve been following the controversial discussion on Google’s allegedly sentient chatbota few months back, that was LaMDA).</p><blockquote>“Language Model of Dialogue Applications”, or “LaMDA”, was also unveiled at this year’s I/O event. LaMDA is trained to engage in conversation and dialogue to help Google better understand the “intent of search queries”. While LaMDA remains in research phase, the ultimate integration of the breakthrough technology into Google Search will not only make the search engine more user-friendly, but also enable search results with greater accuracy.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: “Where Will Google Stock Be In 10 Years?”</blockquote><p>AI-enabled language model competencies needs to be a key focus for Google if it wants to maintain its leadership in online search engines over the longer-term. And the company simply recognizes that. In addition to LaMDA, Google has also been working on a “Multitask Unified Model” (“MUM”), which would refine online searches by allowing users to combine audio, text and image prompts into one single search. But nonetheless, OpenAI’s GPT-3 remains a threat given LaMDA features only137 billion parameters, which is still a wide distance from GPT-3’s 175 billion parameters that essentially generates higher accuracy. And the latest controversy on whether LaMDA is sentient has likely been a setback to its development, putting OpenAI’s ChatGPT potentially a step ahead.</p><p>Google Search currently dominates the online search engine market with close to70% shareof everyday online queries made worldwide. Ironically, Google is also the most-searched term on rival search engine Bing, which illustrates how critical of a role it plays in our everyday life settings. It is also one of the biggest and most effective online ad distribution channels today, and accounts for almost 60% of Alphabet’s consolidated quarterly revenues over the past 12 months.</p><p>But OpenAI could easily disrupt this current norm, and potentially give its backer Microsoft a leg-up, even if it is not directly through Bing (we already see Microsoft leveraging OpenAI’s image-generating capabilities in its latest foray in the burgeoning low-code design industry). The alternative is for Google to keep up with its significant investments into both its cloud-computing capabilities, as well as on training its AI models to both improve the overall competitiveness of Search, and capitalize on growing HPC capabilities stemming from an expanding AI addressable market in the years ahead. While this means potential margin compression in the near-term, it would be critical to sustaining its long-term growth trajectory.</p><p><b>Microsoft’s Prescient Investment</b></p><p>As mentioned in the earlier section, Microsoft is an early investor in OpenAI. With the company’s technologies now coming into fruition, Microsoft has inadvertently become a key beneficiary.</p><p>Prior to ChatGPT’s latest deployment for public free trial and feedback solicitation, OpenAI was already making noise across the internet a few months ago with DALL-E 2. DALL-E 2 essentially uses AI to convert simple text prompts intoAI-generated imagesin all sorts of combinations by leveraging what is already available online, and is crucial in materializing on low-code graphic designing capabilities to users. Microsoft became the latest to leverage DALL-E 2 in its newest Microsoft Designer app, which will be key to its latest foray in low-code design capabilities against industry leaders Adobe (ADBE) and Canva. With capabilities of OpenAI’s DALL-E 2, Microsoft is ready to compete for a share of the growing pie in low- and no-code design that is set to exceed $60 billion by 2024, underscoring significant return potential on that front from its prescient decision to invest $1 billion into OpenAI just three years ago.</p><p>And now with GPT-3 and the latest development on ChatGPT, Microsoft return potential on its early investment in OpenAI has just gotten better. First, ChatGPT and the improved GPT-3 model on which the chatbot is built are both trained on an “Azure AI supercomputing infrastructure”. This essentially provides validation to the technological competency of Microsoft’s foray in HPC, a $108+ billion addressable market. As we have previously discussed, GPT-3 is not the only SOTA AI algorithm today. Instead, there are many more complex language models, among other AI workloads, that require significant computing power – the GPT-3 alone requires “400 gigabits per second of network connectivity for each GPU server” – underscoring the extent of massive demand for HPC over the coming years.</p><p>Second, the eventual commercialization of GPT-3 and ChatGPT could mean integration into Microsoft’s existing product portfolio to further strengthen the software giant’s reach across its respective addressable markets. As discussed in the earlier section, GPT-3 could bolster Bing’s share of the online search engine market over the longer-term, which would inadvertently drive greater digital ad revenues to the platform. Although a farfetched speculation given Bing’s nominal market share today when compared to Google Search’s, any improvements to Microsoft’s search capabilities would be a welcomed sight, nonetheless, and would help chip away at Google’s market leadership and expand the software giant’s share of fast-expanding search ad dollars instead:</p><blockquote><b>Search</b>: Online search engines are currently the most popular digital advertising platforms, boasting 19% y/y growth in the first half of the year. And the trends are expected to extend into the foreseeable future, as search ads approach the end of 2022 with at least 17% y/y growth…And looking forward to 2023, demand for search ads is expected to grow by about 13% y/y, with deceleration consistent with the IMF’s forecast for further economic contraction in the following year.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: “Ad-Tech Round-Up: Why We Think Google And Amazon Will Rise On Top”</blockquote><p>In addition to Bing, Microsoft’s latest dabble in the Metaverse could also benefit from the commercialization of ChatGPT. As we have discussed in detail in aprevious coverageon Microsoft&#39;s stock, the company has been stepping up on its “ability in capitalizing on growing opportunities stemming fromdigital transformation needsacross the consumer and enterprise sectors” – especially in the post-pandemic era norm of location-agnostic work. This includes Microsoft’s introduction of “Mesh”, its virtual world currently accessible through Microsoft Teams, as well as “Connected Spaces” deployed through Dynamics 365 and “Digital Twins” via Azure. And ChatGPT would be a significant addition to Microsoft’s portfolio of virtual-environment-centric enterprise software by enabling capitalization of opportunities stemming from “digitization of more than 25 million retail and industrial spaces in need of digital customer support and/or smart contactless check-out cashiers” over the longer-term.</p><p>Continued commercialization and integration of OpenAI’s technologies would effectively enable greater returns on investment for Microsoft. This can be done directly through the eventual sale of OpenAI products, and indirectly via integration of OpenAI’s technologies into existing Microsoft services to enable deeper reach into customers’ pockets. Although a nominal investment based on Microsoft’s sprawling balance sheet today, OpenAI could become a critical piece to sustaining the tech giant’s “mission critical” role in the provision of enterprise software over the longer-term.</p><p><b>Benefits Flowing Upstream To Nvidia</b></p><p>Upstream chipmakers are a critical backbone of AI-driven innovations. This makes Nvidia a key beneficiary of growing demands from HPC, given its prowess in both AI and graphics processors:</p><blockquote>On the enterprise front, GPUs are also in high demand from hyperscale data center and high performance computing (“HPC”) segments considering the technology’s ability in processingcomplex workloadsrelated to machine learning, deep learning, AI and data mining. And the “Nvidia A100” GPU – one of manydata center GPUsoffered by the chipmaker – does just that. The technology, introduced in 2020, is built based on the Ampere architecture as discussed above and delivers up to 20x higher performance than its predecessors. The A100 is built specifically for supporting “data analytics, scientific computing and cloud graphics”. There is also the recently introduced “HGX AI Supercomputer” platform built on the Nvidia A100, which is capable of providing “extreme performance to enable HPC innovation”.</blockquote><blockquote>The chipmaker’s continued commitment to improving solutions for enterprise workloads makes it well-positioned for capturing growing opportunities from the data center and HPC segments in coming years. Global demand for data center chips is expected to rapidly expand at acompounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 36.7%over the next five years.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: “Is Nvidia Stock A Buy On The Dip? Just Look At Its Resilience Without Arm”</blockquote><p>Nvidia’s latest foray indata center CPUsand CPU+GPU superchips through the “Grace” and “Hopper” architectures also makes it well-positioned for capturing demand stemming fromtransformer modelslike GPT-3 which require significant HPC performance:</p><blockquote>The supercomputer developed for OpenAI is a single system with more than 285,000 CPU cores, 10,000 GPUs and 400 gigabits per second of network connectivity for each GPU server.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Nvidia</blockquote><p>And as the computing performance and cost efficiency of Nvidia’s hardware improves, transformer models like GPT-3 will also become more refined, putting them a step closer to commercialization. The latest research on demand for chips and other essential hardware critical to enabling AI use cases predicts an addressable market of approximately $1.7 trillion by the end of the decade, with improvements to performance and cost-efficiency being key drivers to the opportunity’s continued expansion. And these are two traits that Nvidia continues to deliver on:</p><blockquote>Thanks primarily to Nvidia, the performance of AI training accelerators has been advancing at an astounding rate. Compared to the K80 chip that Nvidia released in 2014, the latest accelerator delivers 195x the performance on a total cost of ownership (“TCO”) adjusted basis...TCO measures an AI training system’s unit price and operating costs…As a baseline, Moore’s Law predicts that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every 18 months to two years, [and] historically it has translated into a ~30% annualized decline in costs…AI chip performance has improved at a 93% rate per year since 2014, translating into a cost decline of 48% per year…Measuring the time to train large AI models instead of Moore’s Law, we believe transistor count will become more important as AI hardware chip designs increase in complexity…As the number of modelled parameters and pools of training data has scaled, Nvidia has [also] added more memory to its chips, enabling larger batch sizes when training. The latest generation of ultra-high bandwidth memory technology, HBM2e, is much faster than the GDDR5 memory found in Nvidia’s 2014 K80. With 80 gigabytes of HBM2e memory, Nvidia’s H100 can deliver 6.25x the memory bandwidth of the K80...</blockquote><blockquote>Source: ARK Investment Management</blockquote><p>With Nvidia not only enabling materialization of language models like GPT-3, but also improving the economics of said transformer models’ deployment in the future, the company is well-poised to benefit from a robust demand environment over coming years from HPC alone. This will not only benefit Nvidia’s higher-margin data center business, but also potentially offset any near-term headwinds stemming from intensifyinggeopolitical risks, and/orcyclical weakness.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>Among the three tickers analyzed in association with OpenAI’s latest developments, Microsoft has been most resilient amid this year’s market rout. It is also likely the most well-positioned to benefit from OpenAI&#39;s AI technologies. Meanwhile, Google has been punished for waning demand across the inherently macro-sensitive ad sector, and Nvidia caught in the hardest-hit semiconductor industry on fears of a cyclical downturn following a multi-year boom, among other industry-wide challenges like geopolitical risks.</p><p><i>Microsoft</i></p><p>Microsoft’s relative resilience is not unreasonable though. Its provision of “mission-critical” software makes it less prone to recession-driven budget cuts across the board. Although no corner of any industry has been left untouched by the unravelling global economy, demand for back-office software like Microsoft’s Dynamics 365, Office 365, and Power BI have also proven to be more resilient given typically fixed, “long-term contracts, which creates far less noise during times of uncertain macro”. This is further corroborated by Microsoft’srobust resultsfor the September-quarter, despite reasonable warning from management aimed at tempering investors’ expectations ahead of mounting macro uncertainties that bring about demand risks, as well as FX headwinds.</p><p>And on a longer-term basis, Microsoft’s continued investment in core innovations capable of expanding its addressable market – whether it is the planned consolidation of Activision Blizzard (ATVI) to bolster its presence in gaming; its existing investment in OpenAI to bolster its search, cloud, and productivity software capabilities as discussed in the foregoing analysis; or continued deployment of capital towards expanding Azure to ensure adequate capitalization of growing opportunities – reinforces the sustainability of its growth trajectory, making it one of the most reasonable investments at current levels among other tickets discussed in today’s analysis.</p><p><i>Google</i></p><p>Meanwhile for Google, the increasing threat of obsolescence of Search – which is where its meat and potatoes are at – risks a more tempered recovery when macroeconomic headwinds subside. This accordingly makes the company’s longer-term growth outlook at risk of greater moderation when compared to the sprawling, yet sustained, growth and market dominance observed today.</p><p>While the recent macroeconomic downturn has made Google a compelling investment opportunity for sustained upside potential into the longer-term, said gains might become more moderate than expected over time, especially if its AI and cloud-computing efforts fail to catch up to nascent rivals in the market today.</p><p><i>Nvidia</i></p><p>As for Nvidia, although its valuation has come down significantly while its longer-term growth prospects continue to demonstrate sustainability supported by its “mission critical” role in enabling next-generation innovations like OpenAI’s language model, the stock continues to trade at a premium to peers with similar growth profiles. And this premium, though justifiable by its market leadership in AI and GPU processors, risks increasing the stock’s vulnerability to a further downtrend in tandem with broader-market declines.</p><p>While Microsoft also trades at a slight valuation premium to comparable peers, Nvidia faces greater industry- and company-specific risks, including challenges of cyclical weakness in semiconductor demand in the near-term, as well as repercussions of rising geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China. And these could potentially bode unfavourably given today’s risk-off market climate ahead of a protracted monetary policy tightening trajectory, which potentially poses better entry opportunities for the stock over the coming months instead of in the immediate-term.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OpenAI Impact Analysis: Microsoft, Google And Nvidia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpenAI Impact Analysis: Microsoft, Google And Nvidia\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-06 18:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562442-openai-impact-analysis-microsoft-google-and-nvidia><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOpenAI's chatbot, ChatGPT, which was released to the broader public for testing and feedback last week, is likely today's top trending topic in tech.Capable of generating both simple Q&A and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562442-openai-impact-analysis-microsoft-google-and-nvidia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562442-openai-impact-analysis-microsoft-google-and-nvidia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155730053","content_text":"SummaryOpenAI's chatbot, ChatGPT, which was released to the broader public for testing and feedback last week, is likely today's top trending topic in tech.Capable of generating both simple Q&A and complex deep dive analyses in response to brief text prompts, ChatGPT poses as a potential disruptor to tech norms today.The following analysis will dive into OpenAI's latest development on language models, and gauge its technologies' implications on some of its most relevant peers.OpenAI’s newest chatbot, “ChatGPT”, has become talk of the town in recent weeks following the “DALL-E” sensation from just a few months back after Microsoft(NASDAQ: MSFT) launched “Microsoft Designer”.ChatGPT is powered by the “GPT-3” language model, which was first introduced to the public a few years ago. While GPT-3 has already been deployed across hundreds of applications since its introduction, which enables the generation of “a text completion in natural language” in response to simple text prompts from humans, the latest release of the ChatGPT chatbot’s availability to the public underscores the model’s significant improvements since.A previous beta of the chatbot, which was only made available to a handful of users for testing purposes, was ladened with limitations, spanning the inability to reject requests that do not make sense or are inappropriate, to a general lack of common sense. While some limitations remain in today’s version of ChatGPT that has been released to the public for trial, it has come a long way with significant improvements to its ability to “answer follow-up questions, admit its mistakes, challenge incorrect premises, and reject inappropriate requests”.The impressive capabilities of ChatGPT today brings into question the viability of near-and-dear systems like Google Search(GOOG, GOOGL) which is intricately linked to our day-to-day personal settings, as well as opportunities to facilitators of high-performance computing (“HPC”) spanning hyperscalers like Microsoft to upstream chipmakers like Nvidia(NVDA). The following analysis will provide an overview of OpenAI’s latest developments when it comes to language models, as well as its longer-term implications on technology bellwethers today including Google, Microsoft and Nvidia.What Is ChatGPT?OpenAI is a non-profit AI technology development platform “co-founded by Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and [Sam] Altman with other investors”, including Microsoft which invested$1 billion into the company in 2019. The company has released public access to its chatbot, ChatGPT, last week, spurring a slew of AI-generated dialogues and responses spanning simple logic Q&A to well-versed essays and poems that could pass as an “A- grade” college research paper, that have overtaken the internet.ChatGPT is based on the GPT-3 language model introduced in 2020, which is capable of mimicking human responses to simple text prompts. GPT-3 is a so-called “pre-trained” model that leverages an existing set of trained and fine-tuned data to make inferences via AI/ML. This generally addresses three main limitations previously identified in predecessor language models:Practicality: It eliminates the need for large volumes of data that would be costly to label before being used in training the language model. By using a pre-trained model, GPT-3 can generate adequate responses by using “only a few labelled samples”, thus enabling greater cost- and time-efficiencies in development.Elimination of “overfitting” and overly specific responses: Training a model with large volumes of data risks “overfitting”, or too much data that instead confuses a model from performing accurately. Alternatively, training a model with large volumes of data could also eliminate its ability to “generalize” beyond a specific domain, thus limiting its performance capacity.When machine learning algorithms are constructed, they leverage a sample dataset to train the model. However, when the model trains for too long on sample data or when the model is too complex, it can start to learn the “noise,” or irrelevant information, within the dataset. When the model memorizes the noise and fits too closely to the training set, the model becomes “overfitted,” and it is unable to generalize well to new data.Source:IBMEnables dialogue via simple prompts: Pre-trained models like GPT-3 also do “not require large supervised data sets to learn most language tasks”, mimicking human responses to typically brief directives.Consisting of 175 billion parameters, GPT-3 is more than 100x larger than its predecessor, “GPT-2”, which consists of only 1.5 billion parameters, and 10x larger than Microsoft’s “Turing NLG” language model introduced in 2020, which consists of 17 billion parameters. This suggests greater performance and applicability by GPT-3, which is further corroborated by its ability to outperform “fine-tuned state-of-the-art algorithms” (“SOTA”) spanning other natural language processing (“NLP”) systems, speech recognition and recommendation systems. With 175 billion parameters, GPT-3 can achieve response accuracy of more than 80% in a “few-shots” setting.\"Larger models make increasingly efficient use of in-context information\"(Language Models are Few-Shot Learners)Few-shot learning essentially enables a pre-trained language model like GPT-3 to “generalize over new categories of data by using only a few labelled samples per class”, and is a “paradigm of meta-learning” or “learning-to-learn”:One potential route addressing [limitations of NLP systems] is meta-learning, which in the context of language models means the model develops a broad set of skills and pattern recognition abilities at training time, and then uses those abilities at inference time to rapidly adapt to or recognize the desired task. In-context learning uses the text input of a pretrained language model as a form of tasks specification. The model is conditioned on a natural language instruction and/or a few demonstrations of the task and is then expected to complete further instances of the tasks simply by predicting what comes next.Source: “Language Models are Few-Shot Learners”As mentioned in the earlier section, ChatGPT has improved significantly from the GPT-3 API closed beta launched in 2020, which only few had access to. Just merely two years ago, the language model did not know how to reject nonsense questions or say “I don’t know”:Example of GPT-3 API Inefficiencies at Close Beta Phase(lacker.io)Fast-forward to today, not only can the model reject nonsense questions and inappropriate requests, ChatGPT can also make suggestions spanning simple one-liner responses to prose-form essays:ChatGPT vs. InstructGPT(OpenAI)Yet, limitations remain, nonetheless, including the chatbot’s rare regurgitation of repeated words in list answers, ability tobypass rules programmed to prevent discussion on illegal activities, and provision of incorrect and/or inaccurateresponses.A Threat To Google?The capabilities of ChatGPT underscores its potential in becoming a threat to Google’s search engine, which is currently the biggest ad distribution channel and revenue driver for the company. With ChatGPT recently becoming an open platform available to the public for free trial, many are realizing that the chatbot is not only capable of generating fairly accurate search results and/or answering fact-based Q&A requests, but also in-depth analyses and suggestions. ChatGPT is essentially a take-home homework buddy for some, given its capability of generating quality work like “take-home 1,000 word undergraduate essays” (which, let’s be honest, primarily rely on research scoured through Google Search) that outperforms those of an average student’s.These capabilities are sufficient to put Google on notice, as they put the Search leader at risk of becoming obsolete. OpenAI’s GPT-3 model essentially addresses the call frommore than 40%of corporate employees across the U.S. today for low-code techniques critical in creating value in the data-driven era, while potentially eliminating the need for Google Search altogether if commercialized.But Google has not completely missed the beat when it comes to AI developments. As we had discussed in a previous coverage, Google is currently working on its own “Language Model of Dialogue Applications”, or LaMDA 2 language model (if you’ve been following the controversial discussion on Google’s allegedly sentient chatbota few months back, that was LaMDA).“Language Model of Dialogue Applications”, or “LaMDA”, was also unveiled at this year’s I/O event. LaMDA is trained to engage in conversation and dialogue to help Google better understand the “intent of search queries”. While LaMDA remains in research phase, the ultimate integration of the breakthrough technology into Google Search will not only make the search engine more user-friendly, but also enable search results with greater accuracy.Source: “Where Will Google Stock Be In 10 Years?”AI-enabled language model competencies needs to be a key focus for Google if it wants to maintain its leadership in online search engines over the longer-term. And the company simply recognizes that. In addition to LaMDA, Google has also been working on a “Multitask Unified Model” (“MUM”), which would refine online searches by allowing users to combine audio, text and image prompts into one single search. But nonetheless, OpenAI’s GPT-3 remains a threat given LaMDA features only137 billion parameters, which is still a wide distance from GPT-3’s 175 billion parameters that essentially generates higher accuracy. And the latest controversy on whether LaMDA is sentient has likely been a setback to its development, putting OpenAI’s ChatGPT potentially a step ahead.Google Search currently dominates the online search engine market with close to70% shareof everyday online queries made worldwide. Ironically, Google is also the most-searched term on rival search engine Bing, which illustrates how critical of a role it plays in our everyday life settings. It is also one of the biggest and most effective online ad distribution channels today, and accounts for almost 60% of Alphabet’s consolidated quarterly revenues over the past 12 months.But OpenAI could easily disrupt this current norm, and potentially give its backer Microsoft a leg-up, even if it is not directly through Bing (we already see Microsoft leveraging OpenAI’s image-generating capabilities in its latest foray in the burgeoning low-code design industry). The alternative is for Google to keep up with its significant investments into both its cloud-computing capabilities, as well as on training its AI models to both improve the overall competitiveness of Search, and capitalize on growing HPC capabilities stemming from an expanding AI addressable market in the years ahead. While this means potential margin compression in the near-term, it would be critical to sustaining its long-term growth trajectory.Microsoft’s Prescient InvestmentAs mentioned in the earlier section, Microsoft is an early investor in OpenAI. With the company’s technologies now coming into fruition, Microsoft has inadvertently become a key beneficiary.Prior to ChatGPT’s latest deployment for public free trial and feedback solicitation, OpenAI was already making noise across the internet a few months ago with DALL-E 2. DALL-E 2 essentially uses AI to convert simple text prompts intoAI-generated imagesin all sorts of combinations by leveraging what is already available online, and is crucial in materializing on low-code graphic designing capabilities to users. Microsoft became the latest to leverage DALL-E 2 in its newest Microsoft Designer app, which will be key to its latest foray in low-code design capabilities against industry leaders Adobe (ADBE) and Canva. With capabilities of OpenAI’s DALL-E 2, Microsoft is ready to compete for a share of the growing pie in low- and no-code design that is set to exceed $60 billion by 2024, underscoring significant return potential on that front from its prescient decision to invest $1 billion into OpenAI just three years ago.And now with GPT-3 and the latest development on ChatGPT, Microsoft return potential on its early investment in OpenAI has just gotten better. First, ChatGPT and the improved GPT-3 model on which the chatbot is built are both trained on an “Azure AI supercomputing infrastructure”. This essentially provides validation to the technological competency of Microsoft’s foray in HPC, a $108+ billion addressable market. As we have previously discussed, GPT-3 is not the only SOTA AI algorithm today. Instead, there are many more complex language models, among other AI workloads, that require significant computing power – the GPT-3 alone requires “400 gigabits per second of network connectivity for each GPU server” – underscoring the extent of massive demand for HPC over the coming years.Second, the eventual commercialization of GPT-3 and ChatGPT could mean integration into Microsoft’s existing product portfolio to further strengthen the software giant’s reach across its respective addressable markets. As discussed in the earlier section, GPT-3 could bolster Bing’s share of the online search engine market over the longer-term, which would inadvertently drive greater digital ad revenues to the platform. Although a farfetched speculation given Bing’s nominal market share today when compared to Google Search’s, any improvements to Microsoft’s search capabilities would be a welcomed sight, nonetheless, and would help chip away at Google’s market leadership and expand the software giant’s share of fast-expanding search ad dollars instead:Search: Online search engines are currently the most popular digital advertising platforms, boasting 19% y/y growth in the first half of the year. And the trends are expected to extend into the foreseeable future, as search ads approach the end of 2022 with at least 17% y/y growth…And looking forward to 2023, demand for search ads is expected to grow by about 13% y/y, with deceleration consistent with the IMF’s forecast for further economic contraction in the following year.Source: “Ad-Tech Round-Up: Why We Think Google And Amazon Will Rise On Top”In addition to Bing, Microsoft’s latest dabble in the Metaverse could also benefit from the commercialization of ChatGPT. As we have discussed in detail in aprevious coverageon Microsoft's stock, the company has been stepping up on its “ability in capitalizing on growing opportunities stemming fromdigital transformation needsacross the consumer and enterprise sectors” – especially in the post-pandemic era norm of location-agnostic work. This includes Microsoft’s introduction of “Mesh”, its virtual world currently accessible through Microsoft Teams, as well as “Connected Spaces” deployed through Dynamics 365 and “Digital Twins” via Azure. And ChatGPT would be a significant addition to Microsoft’s portfolio of virtual-environment-centric enterprise software by enabling capitalization of opportunities stemming from “digitization of more than 25 million retail and industrial spaces in need of digital customer support and/or smart contactless check-out cashiers” over the longer-term.Continued commercialization and integration of OpenAI’s technologies would effectively enable greater returns on investment for Microsoft. This can be done directly through the eventual sale of OpenAI products, and indirectly via integration of OpenAI’s technologies into existing Microsoft services to enable deeper reach into customers’ pockets. Although a nominal investment based on Microsoft’s sprawling balance sheet today, OpenAI could become a critical piece to sustaining the tech giant’s “mission critical” role in the provision of enterprise software over the longer-term.Benefits Flowing Upstream To NvidiaUpstream chipmakers are a critical backbone of AI-driven innovations. This makes Nvidia a key beneficiary of growing demands from HPC, given its prowess in both AI and graphics processors:On the enterprise front, GPUs are also in high demand from hyperscale data center and high performance computing (“HPC”) segments considering the technology’s ability in processingcomplex workloadsrelated to machine learning, deep learning, AI and data mining. And the “Nvidia A100” GPU – one of manydata center GPUsoffered by the chipmaker – does just that. The technology, introduced in 2020, is built based on the Ampere architecture as discussed above and delivers up to 20x higher performance than its predecessors. The A100 is built specifically for supporting “data analytics, scientific computing and cloud graphics”. There is also the recently introduced “HGX AI Supercomputer” platform built on the Nvidia A100, which is capable of providing “extreme performance to enable HPC innovation”.The chipmaker’s continued commitment to improving solutions for enterprise workloads makes it well-positioned for capturing growing opportunities from the data center and HPC segments in coming years. Global demand for data center chips is expected to rapidly expand at acompounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 36.7%over the next five years.Source: “Is Nvidia Stock A Buy On The Dip? Just Look At Its Resilience Without Arm”Nvidia’s latest foray indata center CPUsand CPU+GPU superchips through the “Grace” and “Hopper” architectures also makes it well-positioned for capturing demand stemming fromtransformer modelslike GPT-3 which require significant HPC performance:The supercomputer developed for OpenAI is a single system with more than 285,000 CPU cores, 10,000 GPUs and 400 gigabits per second of network connectivity for each GPU server.Source:NvidiaAnd as the computing performance and cost efficiency of Nvidia’s hardware improves, transformer models like GPT-3 will also become more refined, putting them a step closer to commercialization. The latest research on demand for chips and other essential hardware critical to enabling AI use cases predicts an addressable market of approximately $1.7 trillion by the end of the decade, with improvements to performance and cost-efficiency being key drivers to the opportunity’s continued expansion. And these are two traits that Nvidia continues to deliver on:Thanks primarily to Nvidia, the performance of AI training accelerators has been advancing at an astounding rate. Compared to the K80 chip that Nvidia released in 2014, the latest accelerator delivers 195x the performance on a total cost of ownership (“TCO”) adjusted basis...TCO measures an AI training system’s unit price and operating costs…As a baseline, Moore’s Law predicts that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every 18 months to two years, [and] historically it has translated into a ~30% annualized decline in costs…AI chip performance has improved at a 93% rate per year since 2014, translating into a cost decline of 48% per year…Measuring the time to train large AI models instead of Moore’s Law, we believe transistor count will become more important as AI hardware chip designs increase in complexity…As the number of modelled parameters and pools of training data has scaled, Nvidia has [also] added more memory to its chips, enabling larger batch sizes when training. The latest generation of ultra-high bandwidth memory technology, HBM2e, is much faster than the GDDR5 memory found in Nvidia’s 2014 K80. With 80 gigabytes of HBM2e memory, Nvidia’s H100 can deliver 6.25x the memory bandwidth of the K80...Source: ARK Investment ManagementWith Nvidia not only enabling materialization of language models like GPT-3, but also improving the economics of said transformer models’ deployment in the future, the company is well-poised to benefit from a robust demand environment over coming years from HPC alone. This will not only benefit Nvidia’s higher-margin data center business, but also potentially offset any near-term headwinds stemming from intensifyinggeopolitical risks, and/orcyclical weakness.The Bottom LineAmong the three tickers analyzed in association with OpenAI’s latest developments, Microsoft has been most resilient amid this year’s market rout. It is also likely the most well-positioned to benefit from OpenAI's AI technologies. Meanwhile, Google has been punished for waning demand across the inherently macro-sensitive ad sector, and Nvidia caught in the hardest-hit semiconductor industry on fears of a cyclical downturn following a multi-year boom, among other industry-wide challenges like geopolitical risks.MicrosoftMicrosoft’s relative resilience is not unreasonable though. Its provision of “mission-critical” software makes it less prone to recession-driven budget cuts across the board. Although no corner of any industry has been left untouched by the unravelling global economy, demand for back-office software like Microsoft’s Dynamics 365, Office 365, and Power BI have also proven to be more resilient given typically fixed, “long-term contracts, which creates far less noise during times of uncertain macro”. This is further corroborated by Microsoft’srobust resultsfor the September-quarter, despite reasonable warning from management aimed at tempering investors’ expectations ahead of mounting macro uncertainties that bring about demand risks, as well as FX headwinds.And on a longer-term basis, Microsoft’s continued investment in core innovations capable of expanding its addressable market – whether it is the planned consolidation of Activision Blizzard (ATVI) to bolster its presence in gaming; its existing investment in OpenAI to bolster its search, cloud, and productivity software capabilities as discussed in the foregoing analysis; or continued deployment of capital towards expanding Azure to ensure adequate capitalization of growing opportunities – reinforces the sustainability of its growth trajectory, making it one of the most reasonable investments at current levels among other tickets discussed in today’s analysis.GoogleMeanwhile for Google, the increasing threat of obsolescence of Search – which is where its meat and potatoes are at – risks a more tempered recovery when macroeconomic headwinds subside. This accordingly makes the company’s longer-term growth outlook at risk of greater moderation when compared to the sprawling, yet sustained, growth and market dominance observed today.While the recent macroeconomic downturn has made Google a compelling investment opportunity for sustained upside potential into the longer-term, said gains might become more moderate than expected over time, especially if its AI and cloud-computing efforts fail to catch up to nascent rivals in the market today.NvidiaAs for Nvidia, although its valuation has come down significantly while its longer-term growth prospects continue to demonstrate sustainability supported by its “mission critical” role in enabling next-generation innovations like OpenAI’s language model, the stock continues to trade at a premium to peers with similar growth profiles. And this premium, though justifiable by its market leadership in AI and GPU processors, risks increasing the stock’s vulnerability to a further downtrend in tandem with broader-market declines.While Microsoft also trades at a slight valuation premium to comparable peers, Nvidia faces greater industry- and company-specific risks, including challenges of cyclical weakness in semiconductor demand in the near-term, as well as repercussions of rising geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China. And these could potentially bode unfavourably given today’s risk-off market climate ahead of a protracted monetary policy tightening trajectory, which potentially poses better entry opportunities for the stock over the coming months instead of in the immediate-term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966782274,"gmtCreate":1669646718399,"gmtModify":1676538218089,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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\n \n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/POSTVIDEO/{ID}\"></a><a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/al2GuHPu37I\">Best Dividend Aristocrats This Year!</a>From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al2GuHPu37I\n \n","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/POSTVIDEO/{ID}\"></a><a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/al2GuHPu37I\">Best Dividend Aristocrats This Year!</a>From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al2GuHPu37I","text":"Best Dividend Aristocrats This Year!From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al2GuHPu37I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966233271","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"4779c436f2a944069feb236eecef3f43","tweetId":"9966233271","title":"Best Dividend Aristocrats This 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Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966238019","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969700795,"gmtCreate":1668513839518,"gmtModify":1676538068738,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969700795","repostId":"1120574547","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987757625,"gmtCreate":1668004569667,"gmtModify":1676537997447,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987757625","repostId":"1101788491","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987757302,"gmtCreate":1668004544106,"gmtModify":1676537997438,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987757302","repostId":"1157692624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157692624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668008277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157692624?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-11-09 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Even At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157692624","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>TSLA is trading at 12-month lows.</li><li>Rising interest rates, Q3&#39;s revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.</li><li>The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month price target that is about 50% above the current share price.</li><li>The very high dispersion in the individual analyst price targets reduces confidence in the meaningfulness of the consensus.</li><li>The market-implied outlook (calculated from options prices) is slightly bullish through the end of 2022, but bearish to mid-2023.</li></ul><p>Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have fallen by 15% from the closing price on October 31st and are down 51.6% from the 12-month high closing price of $399.93 on January 3rd. The shares are currently trading at 12-month lows. The drop in the share price since the end of October is largely attributable to declining vehicle sales in China for October, with the company cutting the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y by 9% to maintain demand. The market response to the China news was probably exacerbated by growing concerns after TSLA’s revenue miss for Q3(reported on October 19th).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed96ee922a9178151466be6bb913196e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>12-Month price history and basic statistics for TSLA above.</p><p>Tesla’s valuation depends on continued rapid growth in revenues and earnings. This fact makes the share value quite sensitive to changes in interest rates. The theoretical value of a stock is the net present value of future earnings. The further into the future that these earnings are expected, the larger the compounded impact of increasing the discount rate, which depends on current interest rates. Rising interest rates are one of the factors driving TSLA down.</p><p>The prevailing view among Wall Street analysts is that TSLA can maintain recent years’ incredibly rapid growth rates. The consensus for the rate of EPS growth over the next 3 to 5 years is 31.6% per year. If the company fails to deliver earnings in line with this outlook, the share valuation is likely to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddbc4100fa6280bf6fcc0ef8b86d03a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ETrade</p><p>Trailing (3 years) and estimated future quarterly EPS for TSLA. Green (red) values are amounts by which EPS beat (missed) the consensus expected EPS above.</p><p>Tesla has generated growth rates that amply demonstrate the company’s exceptionalism. TSLA’s YoY revenue growth rate is59.8%, as compared to 4.5% for Toyota (TM), 6.6% for Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK: MBGAF), 12.4% for General Motors (GM), and 12.7% for Ford (F). TSLA also has gross profit margins that are higher than those of these competing firms. Given the massive difference in scale of production, TSLA’s higher profit margins are impressive. The question for investors is whether the current share valuation makes sense, given that this valuation is sensitive to interest rates and depends on maintaining heroic growth rates.</p><p>I last wrote about TSLA on May 25, 2022, about 5 ½ months ago, and I maintained a sell rating on the shares. At that time, the Wall Street consensus rating on TSLA was a buy and the consensus 12-month price target was almost 50% above the share price. One red flag from the analyst outlooks was the extremely high dispersion among the individual price targets. Research has shown that the consensus price target is a meaningful predictor only when the spread in individual price targets is quite low. In fact, a consensus price target that implies a high return is actually a bearish indicator when the spread in the individual price targets is high. The valuation, then as now, was a concern and required incredible growth rates to be justified. I also noted that rising interest rates put downward pressure on the shares. I also looked at the market-implied outlook, a probabilistic price forecast that represents the consensus view from the options market. The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 was substantially bearish. In the 5 ½ months since this post, TSLA has returned -13.3% vs. -4.26% for the S&amp;P 500 (not including dividends).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c08822d1f3055ab12bf6e9e8a7ea386\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Previous analysis of TSLA and subsequent performance vs. the S&amp;P 500 above.</p><p>For readers who are unfamiliar with the market-implied outlook, a brief explanation is needed. The price of an option on a stock is largely determined by the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the stock price will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the option strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all with the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic price forecast that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For a deeper explanation and background, I recommend this monograph published by the CFA Institute.</p><p>With TSLA trading at 12-month lows, I have calculated updated market-implied outlooks and I have compared these with the Wall Street consensus outlook in revisiting my rating.</p><p><b>Wall Street Consensus Outlook for TSLA</b></p><p>ETrade calculates the Wall Street consensus outlook for TSLA using price targets and ratings from 29 ranked analysts who have published their views over the past 3 months. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price targets is 57.7% above the current share price. As in my post from May, there is an enormous spread among the individual price targets. As a rule of thumb, I discount the consensus price target when the ratio of the highest to lowest price target is greater than 2. In this case, the ratio is 10.4 ($760 / $73).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c8d0e04e8918e25b7385e2bad7c26\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"855\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ETrade</p><p>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.</p><p>Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 35 analysts who have published ratings and price targets within the last 90 days. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target is 47.2% above the current share price. I don’t put much weight on this number, however, because of the very large spread among the individual price targets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797d6141699490e50d24fb2784e632e1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.</p><p>In the current results, as in my previous posts on TSLA in May of 2022 and in April of 2021, the spread among the individual analyst price targets is extremely high. This, in turn, suggests that the consensus outlook is unlikely to have predictive value. The consensus price target that is about 50% above the current share price, along with the large spread in individual price targets, may actually be a bearish indicator.</p><p><b>Market-Implied Outlook for TSLA</b></p><p>I have calculated the market-implied outlook for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023 and for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023, using the prices of call and put options that expire on these dates. I selected these two expiration dates to provide a view through the end of 2022 and to the middle of 2023. In addition, options with expiration dates in January and June tend to be highly traded, increasing the confidence in the representativeness of the market-implied outlook.</p><p>The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f689bc8494e22307e8401f8fcc1ac2\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023, above.</p><p>The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 is very symmetric, with probabilities of positive returns that are very close to those for negative returns of the same magnitude. The expected volatility calculated from this outlook is 62% (annualized). For comparison, ETrade calculates a 59% implied volatility for the January options.</p><p>To make it easier to compare the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67eb2da8e00a45afb6a60092265c1c8c\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.</p><p>This view shows just how closely the probabilities of positive and negative returns match up, across the entire range of possible outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are basically on top of one another). These results indicate a neutral outlook for the next 2.4 months.</p><p>Theory indicates that the market-implied outlook is expected to have a negative bias because investors, in aggregate, are risk averse and thus tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. There is no way to measure the magnitude of this bias, or whether it is even present, however. The expectation of a negative bias shifts what would otherwise look like a neutral outlook to a slightly bullish view.</p><p>The market-implied outlook for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023 has probabilities of negative returns that are consistently higher than those for positive returns, across a wide range of possible outcomes (the dashed red line is consistently above the solid blue line over the left ⅔ of the chart below). The maximum probability corresponds to a price return of -21%. Even with consideration of a potential negative bias, I interpret this outlook as bearish. The expected volatility calculated from this distribution is 63% (annualized).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f17528781a49f411c10295d132d77cf\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.</p><p>The market-implied outlook for TSLA is very slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023, but bearish from now until mid-June of 2023. This suggests that TSLA may have gotten a bit oversold in the current sell-off, so a bounce in the next couple of months would not be a surprise. Over the longer-term, however, the outlook is somewhat bearish. In my analysis in late May, the 7.9-month outlook to January 20, 2023 was much more bearish than the current 7.2-month outlook to June of 2023. The expected volatility calculated in late May, 74%, was notably higher than the current estimation for expected volatility. The current outlook to the middle of 2023 is bearish, with high volatility, but the probability of large declines in the share price is lower than it was in late May.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>Tesla has generated exceptional revenue growth in recent years, justifying a substantial premium on the share price as compared to other auto manufacturers and many successful tech companies, as well. That said, the value of a share of TSLA should be quite sensitive to prevailing interest rates as well as any shortfalls in the growth trajectory. With substantial gains in interest rates in 2022, along with concerns about slowing sales growth in China and Q3’s revenue miss, how does one evaluate TSLA? The Wall Street consensus outlook is of limited value because there is such a high level of disagreement between the analysts who follow the company. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target implies a gain of around 50% from current levels, but I have little confidence in the usefulness of these metrics. If anything, the high consensus price target with high dispersion in the individual price targets is a somewhat bearish indicator. The market-implied outlook for TSLA is slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023 but moderately bearish to the middle of 2023. I am maintaining my sell rating on TSLA, although there is decent potential for some price recovery through the end of this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Even At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEven At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-09 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157692624","content_text":"SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month price target that is about 50% above the current share price.The very high dispersion in the individual analyst price targets reduces confidence in the meaningfulness of the consensus.The market-implied outlook (calculated from options prices) is slightly bullish through the end of 2022, but bearish to mid-2023.Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have fallen by 15% from the closing price on October 31st and are down 51.6% from the 12-month high closing price of $399.93 on January 3rd. The shares are currently trading at 12-month lows. The drop in the share price since the end of October is largely attributable to declining vehicle sales in China for October, with the company cutting the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y by 9% to maintain demand. The market response to the China news was probably exacerbated by growing concerns after TSLA’s revenue miss for Q3(reported on October 19th).Seeking Alpha12-Month price history and basic statistics for TSLA above.Tesla’s valuation depends on continued rapid growth in revenues and earnings. This fact makes the share value quite sensitive to changes in interest rates. The theoretical value of a stock is the net present value of future earnings. The further into the future that these earnings are expected, the larger the compounded impact of increasing the discount rate, which depends on current interest rates. Rising interest rates are one of the factors driving TSLA down.The prevailing view among Wall Street analysts is that TSLA can maintain recent years’ incredibly rapid growth rates. The consensus for the rate of EPS growth over the next 3 to 5 years is 31.6% per year. If the company fails to deliver earnings in line with this outlook, the share valuation is likely to decline.ETradeTrailing (3 years) and estimated future quarterly EPS for TSLA. Green (red) values are amounts by which EPS beat (missed) the consensus expected EPS above.Tesla has generated growth rates that amply demonstrate the company’s exceptionalism. TSLA’s YoY revenue growth rate is59.8%, as compared to 4.5% for Toyota (TM), 6.6% for Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK: MBGAF), 12.4% for General Motors (GM), and 12.7% for Ford (F). TSLA also has gross profit margins that are higher than those of these competing firms. Given the massive difference in scale of production, TSLA’s higher profit margins are impressive. The question for investors is whether the current share valuation makes sense, given that this valuation is sensitive to interest rates and depends on maintaining heroic growth rates.I last wrote about TSLA on May 25, 2022, about 5 ½ months ago, and I maintained a sell rating on the shares. At that time, the Wall Street consensus rating on TSLA was a buy and the consensus 12-month price target was almost 50% above the share price. One red flag from the analyst outlooks was the extremely high dispersion among the individual price targets. Research has shown that the consensus price target is a meaningful predictor only when the spread in individual price targets is quite low. In fact, a consensus price target that implies a high return is actually a bearish indicator when the spread in the individual price targets is high. The valuation, then as now, was a concern and required incredible growth rates to be justified. I also noted that rising interest rates put downward pressure on the shares. I also looked at the market-implied outlook, a probabilistic price forecast that represents the consensus view from the options market. The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 was substantially bearish. In the 5 ½ months since this post, TSLA has returned -13.3% vs. -4.26% for the S&P 500 (not including dividends).Seeking AlphaPrevious analysis of TSLA and subsequent performance vs. the S&P 500 above.For readers who are unfamiliar with the market-implied outlook, a brief explanation is needed. The price of an option on a stock is largely determined by the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the stock price will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the option strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all with the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic price forecast that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For a deeper explanation and background, I recommend this monograph published by the CFA Institute.With TSLA trading at 12-month lows, I have calculated updated market-implied outlooks and I have compared these with the Wall Street consensus outlook in revisiting my rating.Wall Street Consensus Outlook for TSLAETrade calculates the Wall Street consensus outlook for TSLA using price targets and ratings from 29 ranked analysts who have published their views over the past 3 months. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price targets is 57.7% above the current share price. As in my post from May, there is an enormous spread among the individual price targets. As a rule of thumb, I discount the consensus price target when the ratio of the highest to lowest price target is greater than 2. In this case, the ratio is 10.4 ($760 / $73).ETradeWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 35 analysts who have published ratings and price targets within the last 90 days. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target is 47.2% above the current share price. I don’t put much weight on this number, however, because of the very large spread among the individual price targets.Seeking AlphaWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.In the current results, as in my previous posts on TSLA in May of 2022 and in April of 2021, the spread among the individual analyst price targets is extremely high. This, in turn, suggests that the consensus outlook is unlikely to have predictive value. The consensus price target that is about 50% above the current share price, along with the large spread in individual price targets, may actually be a bearish indicator.Market-Implied Outlook for TSLAI have calculated the market-implied outlook for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023 and for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023, using the prices of call and put options that expire on these dates. I selected these two expiration dates to provide a view through the end of 2022 and to the middle of 2023. In addition, options with expiration dates in January and June tend to be highly traded, increasing the confidence in the representativeness of the market-implied outlook.The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023, above.The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 is very symmetric, with probabilities of positive returns that are very close to those for negative returns of the same magnitude. The expected volatility calculated from this outlook is 62% (annualized). For comparison, ETrade calculates a 59% implied volatility for the January options.To make it easier to compare the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.This view shows just how closely the probabilities of positive and negative returns match up, across the entire range of possible outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are basically on top of one another). These results indicate a neutral outlook for the next 2.4 months.Theory indicates that the market-implied outlook is expected to have a negative bias because investors, in aggregate, are risk averse and thus tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. There is no way to measure the magnitude of this bias, or whether it is even present, however. The expectation of a negative bias shifts what would otherwise look like a neutral outlook to a slightly bullish view.The market-implied outlook for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023 has probabilities of negative returns that are consistently higher than those for positive returns, across a wide range of possible outcomes (the dashed red line is consistently above the solid blue line over the left ⅔ of the chart below). The maximum probability corresponds to a price return of -21%. Even with consideration of a potential negative bias, I interpret this outlook as bearish. The expected volatility calculated from this distribution is 63% (annualized).Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.The market-implied outlook for TSLA is very slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023, but bearish from now until mid-June of 2023. This suggests that TSLA may have gotten a bit oversold in the current sell-off, so a bounce in the next couple of months would not be a surprise. Over the longer-term, however, the outlook is somewhat bearish. In my analysis in late May, the 7.9-month outlook to January 20, 2023 was much more bearish than the current 7.2-month outlook to June of 2023. The expected volatility calculated in late May, 74%, was notably higher than the current estimation for expected volatility. The current outlook to the middle of 2023 is bearish, with high volatility, but the probability of large declines in the share price is lower than it was in late May.SummaryTesla has generated exceptional revenue growth in recent years, justifying a substantial premium on the share price as compared to other auto manufacturers and many successful tech companies, as well. That said, the value of a share of TSLA should be quite sensitive to prevailing interest rates as well as any shortfalls in the growth trajectory. With substantial gains in interest rates in 2022, along with concerns about slowing sales growth in China and Q3’s revenue miss, how does one evaluate TSLA? The Wall Street consensus outlook is of limited value because there is such a high level of disagreement between the analysts who follow the company. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target implies a gain of around 50% from current levels, but I have little confidence in the usefulness of these metrics. If anything, the high consensus price target with high dispersion in the individual price targets is a somewhat bearish indicator. The market-implied outlook for TSLA is slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023 but moderately bearish to the middle of 2023. I am maintaining my sell rating on TSLA, although there is decent potential for some price recovery through the end of this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984737400,"gmtCreate":1667739364700,"gmtModify":1676537957521,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really messy&nbsp;","listText":"Really messy&nbsp;","text":"Really 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$S&P 500(.SPX)$$S&P 500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/165c7dc11783e7e549701d20d622c4d4","width":"1080","height":"1720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919425269","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919358591,"gmtCreate":1663737008913,"gmtModify":1676537326635,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01211\">$BYD COMPANY(01211)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01211\">$BYD COMPANY(01211)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$BYD COMPANY(01211)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919358591","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9085326563,"gmtCreate":1650651178584,"gmtModify":1676534770807,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The book that helped me most in my investment is Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki.\"Winners are not afraid of losing. But losers are. Failure is part of the process of success. People who avoid failure also avoid success.\"This year I planned to read these books1. Best for Rental Property Investing: The Book on Rental Property Investing.2. THE PSYCHOLOGY OF MONEY.By reading more can give me more knowledge and made better decisions&nbsp;","listText":"The book that helped me most in my investment is Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki.\"Winners are not afraid of losing. But losers are. Failure is part of the process of success. People who avoid failure also avoid success.\"This year I planned to read these books1. Best for Rental Property Investing: The Book on Rental Property Investing.2. THE PSYCHOLOGY OF MONEY.By reading more can give me more knowledge and made better decisions&nbsp;","text":"The book that helped me most in my investment is Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki.\"Winners are not afraid of losing. But losers are. Failure is part of the process of success. People who avoid failure also avoid success.\"This year I planned to read these books1. Best for Rental Property Investing: The Book on Rental Property Investing.2. THE PSYCHOLOGY OF MONEY.By reading more can give me more knowledge and made better decisions","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085326563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130260573,"gmtCreate":1621552966292,"gmtModify":1704359385674,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130260573","repostId":"2137763179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581676436170868","authorId":"3581676436170868","name":"hu1250","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/08c0a697f3093d1acd07d17572749896","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581676436170868","authorIdStr":"3581676436170868"},"content":"Pls response too","text":"Pls response too","html":"Pls response too"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278232258810120,"gmtCreate":1708955602475,"gmtModify":1708955607535,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ </a> 😢&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ </a> 😢&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ 😢","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e281a04ff0e4570ea92be693134f2aea","width":"894","height":"1508"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278232258810120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315028424683600,"gmtCreate":1717942684280,"gmtModify":1717942687709,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315028424683600","repostId":"314479744463136","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":314479744463136,"gmtCreate":1717808619352,"gmtModify":1718181460060,"author":{"id":"3581734406950755","authorId":"3581734406950755","name":"Shyon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3423cbda71d7a89cd2f2f2d6744330","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581734406950755","authorIdStr":"3581734406950755"},"themes":[],"title":"EV Giants - Tesla BYD Xiaomi Technical Analysis","htmlText":"As climate change continues to accelerate and its devastating impacts increase, we must act now to reduce our carbon emissions. Since the transport sector contributes to global emissions, transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) may significantly aid countries in achieving their net-zero goals. While much attention is given to the consumer market, the role of commercial vehicles, and specifically large-scale fleets, is crucial.&nbsp; The electric vehicle revolution is gaining momentum thanks to various factors such as cost reduction, technological advancements and government support.&nbsp; TESLA&nbsp; Over the past 18 months, Tesla has missed its sales goals and seen its share price fall, as Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk makes dramatic decisions about the company's future. Musk cut the","listText":"As climate change continues to accelerate and its devastating impacts increase, we must act now to reduce our carbon emissions. Since the transport sector contributes to global emissions, transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) may significantly aid countries in achieving their net-zero goals. While much attention is given to the consumer market, the role of commercial vehicles, and specifically large-scale fleets, is crucial.&nbsp; The electric vehicle revolution is gaining momentum thanks to various factors such as cost reduction, technological advancements and government support.&nbsp; TESLA&nbsp; Over the past 18 months, Tesla has missed its sales goals and seen its share price fall, as Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk makes dramatic decisions about the company's future. Musk cut the","text":"As climate change continues to accelerate and its devastating impacts increase, we must act now to reduce our carbon emissions. Since the transport sector contributes to global emissions, transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) may significantly aid countries in achieving their net-zero goals. While much attention is given to the consumer market, the role of commercial vehicles, and specifically large-scale fleets, is crucial. The electric vehicle revolution is gaining momentum thanks to various factors such as cost reduction, technological advancements and government support. TESLA Over the past 18 months, Tesla has missed its sales goals and seen its share price fall, as Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk makes dramatic decisions about the company's future. Musk cut the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7669706ca5939dc8f26d1f58760ac6d5","width":"2800","height":"1260"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ffe5aada2f053f96422c810750150b","width":"2800","height":"1260"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ee4f47badc4c10e9e8a304e17c68331","width":"2800","height":"1260"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314479744463136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186686737408120,"gmtCreate":1686617225025,"gmtModify":1686617228628,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Give us more 0.5 to play","listText":"Give us more 0.5 to play","text":"Give us more 0.5 to play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186686737408120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010188275,"gmtCreate":1648286743715,"gmtModify":1676534325670,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010188275","repostId":"1196027616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196027616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648255536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196027616?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-03-26 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196027616","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of p","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.</p><p>They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.</p><p>“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.</p><p>“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”</p><p>An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.</p><p>Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.</p><p>Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to know</p><p>But that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.</p><p>“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.</p><p>“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”</p><h2>Watch 10-year, 3-month</h2><p>Instead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe28818cd1806ee5afd5519332cf483\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management</span></p><p>“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.</p><p>“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”</p><p>Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.</p><p>By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”</p><p>On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.</p><p>“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.</p><p>A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.</p><p>“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 08:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196027616","content_text":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to knowBut that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”Watch 10-year, 3-monthInstead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347255529738536,"gmtCreate":1725808589340,"gmtModify":1725849436703,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347255529738536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193316295954432,"gmtCreate":1688225978527,"gmtModify":1688225981878,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193316295954432","repostId":"193234694537336","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":193234694537336,"gmtCreate":1688205967185,"gmtModify":1688208682536,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"Will ESG ETFs - $ESGU, $VSGX Fall? BlackRock CEO Warns!","htmlText":"When I came across the above article, I&nbsp;sat up&nbsp;quickly,&nbsp;click&nbsp;on it and&nbsp;savour&nbsp;the article in one sitting. When the world’s&nbsp;largest&nbsp;assets manager, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BLK\">$BlackRock(BLK)$</a> CEO, Mr Larry Finks said something so “profound”, we need to pay close attention especially when distilled to its essence, it is about&nbsp;money &amp; investments. My usual prelude before deep diving into the main content. What is&nbsp;Environmental,&nbsp;Social &amp; corporate&nbsp;Governance (ESG)? It is an&nbsp;approach&nbsp;to investing that recommends taking&nbsp;(a)&nbsp;environmental issues,&nbsp;(b)&nbsp;social issues and&nbsp;(c)&nbsp;governance issues into account when deciding which companies to invest in. It has become&nbsp;increasing","listText":"When I came across the above article, I&nbsp;sat up&nbsp;quickly,&nbsp;click&nbsp;on it and&nbsp;savour&nbsp;the article in one sitting. When the world’s&nbsp;largest&nbsp;assets manager, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BLK\">$BlackRock(BLK)$</a> CEO, Mr Larry Finks said something so “profound”, we need to pay close attention especially when distilled to its essence, it is about&nbsp;money &amp; investments. My usual prelude before deep diving into the main content. What is&nbsp;Environmental,&nbsp;Social &amp; corporate&nbsp;Governance (ESG)? It is an&nbsp;approach&nbsp;to investing that recommends taking&nbsp;(a)&nbsp;environmental issues,&nbsp;(b)&nbsp;social issues and&nbsp;(c)&nbsp;governance issues into account when deciding which companies to invest in. It has become&nbsp;increasing","text":"When I came across the above article, I sat up quickly, click on it and savour the article in one sitting. When the world’s largest assets manager, $BlackRock(BLK)$ CEO, Mr Larry Finks said something so “profound”, we need to pay close attention especially when distilled to its essence, it is about money & investments. My usual prelude before deep diving into the main content. What is Environmental, Social & corporate Governance (ESG)? It is an approach to investing that recommends taking (a) environmental issues, (b) social issues and (c) governance issues into account when deciding which companies to invest in. It has become increasing","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daeb75e0de512a0f563acaf104d66f75","width":"2271","height":"141"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5001df93c54d0e165185b15b3a803c6c","width":"853","height":"173"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3759be8dc49b19f3f55e20cad094c83","width":"938","height":"200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193234694537336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022410216,"gmtCreate":1653567408635,"gmtModify":1676535304877,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022410216","repostId":"1130299206","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130299206","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1653566631,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130299206?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-05-26 20:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Beats Estimates for Quarterly Revenue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130299206","media":"Reuters","summary":"China's Alibaba Group Holding Ltd on Thursday beat market expectations for fourth-quarter revenue, p","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>China&#39;s Alibaba Group Holding Ltd on Thursday beat market expectations for fourth-quarter revenue, powered by demand for its ecommerce and cloud services as lockdowns in the country&#39;s biggest cities forced offices to shift to remote work.</p><p>Alibaba shares jumped in trading Thursday.</p><p>The e-commerce giant&#39;s strong results come as Beijing extends support to its tech companies to avoid a hit from new COVID-19 outbreaks.</p><p>Demand for online services ranging from shopping to cloud-based products has skyrocketed in China as strict lockdowns prompt people to work, shop and keep themselves entertained from homes.</p><p>Revenue in the cloud computing division rose 12% to 18.97 billion yuan in the reported quarter. At the core commerce unit, its largest, revenue rose 8% to 140.33 billion yuan.</p><p>Overall, revenue rose 9% to 204.05 billion yuan ($30.35 billion) in the quarter. Analysts on average had expected revenue of 199.25 billion yuan, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Alibaba Group said it would not give a forecast for the current fiscal year due to COVID-19 risks.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Beats Estimates for Quarterly Revenue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Beats Estimates for Quarterly Revenue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-26 20:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>China&#39;s Alibaba Group Holding Ltd on Thursday beat market expectations for fourth-quarter revenue, powered by demand for its ecommerce and cloud services as lockdowns in the country&#39;s biggest cities forced offices to shift to remote work.</p><p>Alibaba shares jumped in trading Thursday.</p><p>The e-commerce giant&#39;s strong results come as Beijing extends support to its tech companies to avoid a hit from new COVID-19 outbreaks.</p><p>Demand for online services ranging from shopping to cloud-based products has skyrocketed in China as strict lockdowns prompt people to work, shop and keep themselves entertained from homes.</p><p>Revenue in the cloud computing division rose 12% to 18.97 billion yuan in the reported quarter. At the core commerce unit, its largest, revenue rose 8% to 140.33 billion yuan.</p><p>Overall, revenue rose 9% to 204.05 billion yuan ($30.35 billion) in the quarter. Analysts on average had expected revenue of 199.25 billion yuan, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Alibaba Group said it would not give a forecast for the current fiscal year due to COVID-19 risks.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130299206","content_text":"China's Alibaba Group Holding Ltd on Thursday beat market expectations for fourth-quarter revenue, powered by demand for its ecommerce and cloud services as lockdowns in the country's biggest cities forced offices to shift to remote work.Alibaba shares jumped in trading Thursday.The e-commerce giant's strong results come as Beijing extends support to its tech companies to avoid a hit from new COVID-19 outbreaks.Demand for online services ranging from shopping to cloud-based products has skyrocketed in China as strict lockdowns prompt people to work, shop and keep themselves entertained from homes.Revenue in the cloud computing division rose 12% to 18.97 billion yuan in the reported quarter. At the core commerce unit, its largest, revenue rose 8% to 140.33 billion yuan.Overall, revenue rose 9% to 204.05 billion yuan ($30.35 billion) in the quarter. Analysts on average had expected revenue of 199.25 billion yuan, according to Refinitiv data.Alibaba Group said it would not give a forecast for the current fiscal year due to COVID-19 risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182775723,"gmtCreate":1623625367262,"gmtModify":1704207008579,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182775723","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108959394,"gmtCreate":1619995956618,"gmtModify":1704336966672,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment 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please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144280518","repostId":"2151548988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575890735190983","authorId":"3575890735190983","name":"DanVI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/478c2cb5a178cff7532f6fa9a68068b7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575890735190983","authorIdStr":"3575890735190983"},"content":"Done Pls like Too","text":"Done Pls like Too","html":"Done Pls like Too"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163650366,"gmtCreate":1623884090955,"gmtModify":1703822232432,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163650366","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061420551,"gmtCreate":1651669177688,"gmtModify":1676534945107,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061420551","repostId":"1191508689","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191508689","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651667066,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191508689?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-05-04 20:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Private Payrolls Increased 247,000 in April, Well below Estimate, ADP Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191508689","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Companies added far fewer jobs than expected as the struggle to find workers to fill open positions ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Companies added far fewer jobs than expected as the struggle to find workers to fill open positions continued, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.</p><p>Private payrolls increased by just 247,000 for the month, well below the 390,000 Dow Jones estimate.</p><p>A dropoff in small business hiring was the primary culprit for the disappointment, as companies with fewer than 50 workers saw a decline of 120,000. The issue was particularly acute in those with fewer than 20 employees, which lost 96,000 workers on the month.</p><p>Big business with 500 or more workers compensated for some of the decline, adding 321,000.</p><p>Leisure and hospitality businesses led job creation with 77,000 additions. Professional and business services grew by 50,000 and education and health services contributed 48,000 to the total.</p><p>Information services was the only sector to report a decline, losing 2,000 workers.</p><p>In all, services-related industries comprised 202,000 of the total while manufacturing added 46,000, led by manufacturing’s 25,000, while construction grew by 16,000. (The totals are rounded.)</p><p>The ADP report serves as a precursor to Friday’s more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That reports is expected to show growth of 400,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. If that forecast for the jobless rate is correct, it will match the pre-pandemic level, which was the lowest since December 1969.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Private Payrolls Increased 247,000 in April, Well below Estimate, ADP Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPrivate Payrolls Increased 247,000 in April, Well below Estimate, ADP Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-04 20:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Companies added far fewer jobs than expected as the struggle to find workers to fill open positions continued, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.</p><p>Private payrolls increased by just 247,000 for the month, well below the 390,000 Dow Jones estimate.</p><p>A dropoff in small business hiring was the primary culprit for the disappointment, as companies with fewer than 50 workers saw a decline of 120,000. The issue was particularly acute in those with fewer than 20 employees, which lost 96,000 workers on the month.</p><p>Big business with 500 or more workers compensated for some of the decline, adding 321,000.</p><p>Leisure and hospitality businesses led job creation with 77,000 additions. Professional and business services grew by 50,000 and education and health services contributed 48,000 to the total.</p><p>Information services was the only sector to report a decline, losing 2,000 workers.</p><p>In all, services-related industries comprised 202,000 of the total while manufacturing added 46,000, led by manufacturing’s 25,000, while construction grew by 16,000. (The totals are rounded.)</p><p>The ADP report serves as a precursor to Friday’s more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That reports is expected to show growth of 400,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. If that forecast for the jobless rate is correct, it will match the pre-pandemic level, which was the lowest since December 1969.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191508689","content_text":"Companies added far fewer jobs than expected as the struggle to find workers to fill open positions continued, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.Private payrolls increased by just 247,000 for the month, well below the 390,000 Dow Jones estimate.A dropoff in small business hiring was the primary culprit for the disappointment, as companies with fewer than 50 workers saw a decline of 120,000. The issue was particularly acute in those with fewer than 20 employees, which lost 96,000 workers on the month.Big business with 500 or more workers compensated for some of the decline, adding 321,000.Leisure and hospitality businesses led job creation with 77,000 additions. Professional and business services grew by 50,000 and education and health services contributed 48,000 to the total.Information services was the only sector to report a decline, losing 2,000 workers.In all, services-related industries comprised 202,000 of the total while manufacturing added 46,000, led by manufacturing’s 25,000, while construction grew by 16,000. (The totals are rounded.)The ADP report serves as a precursor to Friday’s more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That reports is expected to show growth of 400,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. If that forecast for the jobless rate is correct, it will match the pre-pandemic level, which was the lowest since December 1969.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899539231,"gmtCreate":1628205586723,"gmtModify":1703502978893,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899539231","repostId":"2157451048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125198830,"gmtCreate":1624662929020,"gmtModify":1703842905788,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125198830","repostId":"1177764085","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110792032,"gmtCreate":1622502947226,"gmtModify":1704185085325,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110792032","repostId":"1163643126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581558548233644","authorId":"3581558548233644","name":"leanzw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35e193f561775f397493a4a12250a2f5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581558548233644","authorIdStr":"3581558548233644"},"content":"please reply back my comment","text":"please reply back my comment","html":"please reply back my comment"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192681743,"gmtCreate":1621206572482,"gmtModify":1704353776546,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192681743","repostId":"2136982359","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987757302,"gmtCreate":1668004544106,"gmtModify":1676537997438,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987757302","repostId":"1157692624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157692624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668008277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157692624?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-11-09 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Even At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157692624","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>TSLA is trading at 12-month lows.</li><li>Rising interest rates, Q3&#39;s revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.</li><li>The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month price target that is about 50% above the current share price.</li><li>The very high dispersion in the individual analyst price targets reduces confidence in the meaningfulness of the consensus.</li><li>The market-implied outlook (calculated from options prices) is slightly bullish through the end of 2022, but bearish to mid-2023.</li></ul><p>Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have fallen by 15% from the closing price on October 31st and are down 51.6% from the 12-month high closing price of $399.93 on January 3rd. The shares are currently trading at 12-month lows. The drop in the share price since the end of October is largely attributable to declining vehicle sales in China for October, with the company cutting the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y by 9% to maintain demand. The market response to the China news was probably exacerbated by growing concerns after TSLA’s revenue miss for Q3(reported on October 19th).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed96ee922a9178151466be6bb913196e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>12-Month price history and basic statistics for TSLA above.</p><p>Tesla’s valuation depends on continued rapid growth in revenues and earnings. This fact makes the share value quite sensitive to changes in interest rates. The theoretical value of a stock is the net present value of future earnings. The further into the future that these earnings are expected, the larger the compounded impact of increasing the discount rate, which depends on current interest rates. Rising interest rates are one of the factors driving TSLA down.</p><p>The prevailing view among Wall Street analysts is that TSLA can maintain recent years’ incredibly rapid growth rates. The consensus for the rate of EPS growth over the next 3 to 5 years is 31.6% per year. If the company fails to deliver earnings in line with this outlook, the share valuation is likely to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddbc4100fa6280bf6fcc0ef8b86d03a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ETrade</p><p>Trailing (3 years) and estimated future quarterly EPS for TSLA. Green (red) values are amounts by which EPS beat (missed) the consensus expected EPS above.</p><p>Tesla has generated growth rates that amply demonstrate the company’s exceptionalism. TSLA’s YoY revenue growth rate is59.8%, as compared to 4.5% for Toyota (TM), 6.6% for Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK: MBGAF), 12.4% for General Motors (GM), and 12.7% for Ford (F). TSLA also has gross profit margins that are higher than those of these competing firms. Given the massive difference in scale of production, TSLA’s higher profit margins are impressive. The question for investors is whether the current share valuation makes sense, given that this valuation is sensitive to interest rates and depends on maintaining heroic growth rates.</p><p>I last wrote about TSLA on May 25, 2022, about 5 ½ months ago, and I maintained a sell rating on the shares. At that time, the Wall Street consensus rating on TSLA was a buy and the consensus 12-month price target was almost 50% above the share price. One red flag from the analyst outlooks was the extremely high dispersion among the individual price targets. Research has shown that the consensus price target is a meaningful predictor only when the spread in individual price targets is quite low. In fact, a consensus price target that implies a high return is actually a bearish indicator when the spread in the individual price targets is high. The valuation, then as now, was a concern and required incredible growth rates to be justified. I also noted that rising interest rates put downward pressure on the shares. I also looked at the market-implied outlook, a probabilistic price forecast that represents the consensus view from the options market. The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 was substantially bearish. In the 5 ½ months since this post, TSLA has returned -13.3% vs. -4.26% for the S&amp;P 500 (not including dividends).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c08822d1f3055ab12bf6e9e8a7ea386\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Previous analysis of TSLA and subsequent performance vs. the S&amp;P 500 above.</p><p>For readers who are unfamiliar with the market-implied outlook, a brief explanation is needed. The price of an option on a stock is largely determined by the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the stock price will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the option strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all with the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic price forecast that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For a deeper explanation and background, I recommend this monograph published by the CFA Institute.</p><p>With TSLA trading at 12-month lows, I have calculated updated market-implied outlooks and I have compared these with the Wall Street consensus outlook in revisiting my rating.</p><p><b>Wall Street Consensus Outlook for TSLA</b></p><p>ETrade calculates the Wall Street consensus outlook for TSLA using price targets and ratings from 29 ranked analysts who have published their views over the past 3 months. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price targets is 57.7% above the current share price. As in my post from May, there is an enormous spread among the individual price targets. As a rule of thumb, I discount the consensus price target when the ratio of the highest to lowest price target is greater than 2. In this case, the ratio is 10.4 ($760 / $73).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c8d0e04e8918e25b7385e2bad7c26\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"855\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ETrade</p><p>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.</p><p>Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 35 analysts who have published ratings and price targets within the last 90 days. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target is 47.2% above the current share price. I don’t put much weight on this number, however, because of the very large spread among the individual price targets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797d6141699490e50d24fb2784e632e1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.</p><p>In the current results, as in my previous posts on TSLA in May of 2022 and in April of 2021, the spread among the individual analyst price targets is extremely high. This, in turn, suggests that the consensus outlook is unlikely to have predictive value. The consensus price target that is about 50% above the current share price, along with the large spread in individual price targets, may actually be a bearish indicator.</p><p><b>Market-Implied Outlook for TSLA</b></p><p>I have calculated the market-implied outlook for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023 and for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023, using the prices of call and put options that expire on these dates. I selected these two expiration dates to provide a view through the end of 2022 and to the middle of 2023. In addition, options with expiration dates in January and June tend to be highly traded, increasing the confidence in the representativeness of the market-implied outlook.</p><p>The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f689bc8494e22307e8401f8fcc1ac2\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023, above.</p><p>The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 is very symmetric, with probabilities of positive returns that are very close to those for negative returns of the same magnitude. The expected volatility calculated from this outlook is 62% (annualized). For comparison, ETrade calculates a 59% implied volatility for the January options.</p><p>To make it easier to compare the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67eb2da8e00a45afb6a60092265c1c8c\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.</p><p>This view shows just how closely the probabilities of positive and negative returns match up, across the entire range of possible outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are basically on top of one another). These results indicate a neutral outlook for the next 2.4 months.</p><p>Theory indicates that the market-implied outlook is expected to have a negative bias because investors, in aggregate, are risk averse and thus tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. There is no way to measure the magnitude of this bias, or whether it is even present, however. The expectation of a negative bias shifts what would otherwise look like a neutral outlook to a slightly bullish view.</p><p>The market-implied outlook for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023 has probabilities of negative returns that are consistently higher than those for positive returns, across a wide range of possible outcomes (the dashed red line is consistently above the solid blue line over the left ⅔ of the chart below). The maximum probability corresponds to a price return of -21%. Even with consideration of a potential negative bias, I interpret this outlook as bearish. The expected volatility calculated from this distribution is 63% (annualized).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f17528781a49f411c10295d132d77cf\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.</p><p>The market-implied outlook for TSLA is very slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023, but bearish from now until mid-June of 2023. This suggests that TSLA may have gotten a bit oversold in the current sell-off, so a bounce in the next couple of months would not be a surprise. Over the longer-term, however, the outlook is somewhat bearish. In my analysis in late May, the 7.9-month outlook to January 20, 2023 was much more bearish than the current 7.2-month outlook to June of 2023. The expected volatility calculated in late May, 74%, was notably higher than the current estimation for expected volatility. The current outlook to the middle of 2023 is bearish, with high volatility, but the probability of large declines in the share price is lower than it was in late May.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>Tesla has generated exceptional revenue growth in recent years, justifying a substantial premium on the share price as compared to other auto manufacturers and many successful tech companies, as well. That said, the value of a share of TSLA should be quite sensitive to prevailing interest rates as well as any shortfalls in the growth trajectory. With substantial gains in interest rates in 2022, along with concerns about slowing sales growth in China and Q3’s revenue miss, how does one evaluate TSLA? The Wall Street consensus outlook is of limited value because there is such a high level of disagreement between the analysts who follow the company. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target implies a gain of around 50% from current levels, but I have little confidence in the usefulness of these metrics. If anything, the high consensus price target with high dispersion in the individual price targets is a somewhat bearish indicator. The market-implied outlook for TSLA is slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023 but moderately bearish to the middle of 2023. I am maintaining my sell rating on TSLA, although there is decent potential for some price recovery through the end of this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Even At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEven At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-09 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157692624","content_text":"SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month price target that is about 50% above the current share price.The very high dispersion in the individual analyst price targets reduces confidence in the meaningfulness of the consensus.The market-implied outlook (calculated from options prices) is slightly bullish through the end of 2022, but bearish to mid-2023.Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have fallen by 15% from the closing price on October 31st and are down 51.6% from the 12-month high closing price of $399.93 on January 3rd. The shares are currently trading at 12-month lows. The drop in the share price since the end of October is largely attributable to declining vehicle sales in China for October, with the company cutting the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y by 9% to maintain demand. The market response to the China news was probably exacerbated by growing concerns after TSLA’s revenue miss for Q3(reported on October 19th).Seeking Alpha12-Month price history and basic statistics for TSLA above.Tesla’s valuation depends on continued rapid growth in revenues and earnings. This fact makes the share value quite sensitive to changes in interest rates. The theoretical value of a stock is the net present value of future earnings. The further into the future that these earnings are expected, the larger the compounded impact of increasing the discount rate, which depends on current interest rates. Rising interest rates are one of the factors driving TSLA down.The prevailing view among Wall Street analysts is that TSLA can maintain recent years’ incredibly rapid growth rates. The consensus for the rate of EPS growth over the next 3 to 5 years is 31.6% per year. If the company fails to deliver earnings in line with this outlook, the share valuation is likely to decline.ETradeTrailing (3 years) and estimated future quarterly EPS for TSLA. Green (red) values are amounts by which EPS beat (missed) the consensus expected EPS above.Tesla has generated growth rates that amply demonstrate the company’s exceptionalism. TSLA’s YoY revenue growth rate is59.8%, as compared to 4.5% for Toyota (TM), 6.6% for Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK: MBGAF), 12.4% for General Motors (GM), and 12.7% for Ford (F). TSLA also has gross profit margins that are higher than those of these competing firms. Given the massive difference in scale of production, TSLA’s higher profit margins are impressive. The question for investors is whether the current share valuation makes sense, given that this valuation is sensitive to interest rates and depends on maintaining heroic growth rates.I last wrote about TSLA on May 25, 2022, about 5 ½ months ago, and I maintained a sell rating on the shares. At that time, the Wall Street consensus rating on TSLA was a buy and the consensus 12-month price target was almost 50% above the share price. One red flag from the analyst outlooks was the extremely high dispersion among the individual price targets. Research has shown that the consensus price target is a meaningful predictor only when the spread in individual price targets is quite low. In fact, a consensus price target that implies a high return is actually a bearish indicator when the spread in the individual price targets is high. The valuation, then as now, was a concern and required incredible growth rates to be justified. I also noted that rising interest rates put downward pressure on the shares. I also looked at the market-implied outlook, a probabilistic price forecast that represents the consensus view from the options market. The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 was substantially bearish. In the 5 ½ months since this post, TSLA has returned -13.3% vs. -4.26% for the S&P 500 (not including dividends).Seeking AlphaPrevious analysis of TSLA and subsequent performance vs. the S&P 500 above.For readers who are unfamiliar with the market-implied outlook, a brief explanation is needed. The price of an option on a stock is largely determined by the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the stock price will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the option strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all with the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic price forecast that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For a deeper explanation and background, I recommend this monograph published by the CFA Institute.With TSLA trading at 12-month lows, I have calculated updated market-implied outlooks and I have compared these with the Wall Street consensus outlook in revisiting my rating.Wall Street Consensus Outlook for TSLAETrade calculates the Wall Street consensus outlook for TSLA using price targets and ratings from 29 ranked analysts who have published their views over the past 3 months. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price targets is 57.7% above the current share price. As in my post from May, there is an enormous spread among the individual price targets. As a rule of thumb, I discount the consensus price target when the ratio of the highest to lowest price target is greater than 2. In this case, the ratio is 10.4 ($760 / $73).ETradeWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 35 analysts who have published ratings and price targets within the last 90 days. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target is 47.2% above the current share price. I don’t put much weight on this number, however, because of the very large spread among the individual price targets.Seeking AlphaWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.In the current results, as in my previous posts on TSLA in May of 2022 and in April of 2021, the spread among the individual analyst price targets is extremely high. This, in turn, suggests that the consensus outlook is unlikely to have predictive value. The consensus price target that is about 50% above the current share price, along with the large spread in individual price targets, may actually be a bearish indicator.Market-Implied Outlook for TSLAI have calculated the market-implied outlook for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023 and for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023, using the prices of call and put options that expire on these dates. I selected these two expiration dates to provide a view through the end of 2022 and to the middle of 2023. In addition, options with expiration dates in January and June tend to be highly traded, increasing the confidence in the representativeness of the market-implied outlook.The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023, above.The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 is very symmetric, with probabilities of positive returns that are very close to those for negative returns of the same magnitude. The expected volatility calculated from this outlook is 62% (annualized). For comparison, ETrade calculates a 59% implied volatility for the January options.To make it easier to compare the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.This view shows just how closely the probabilities of positive and negative returns match up, across the entire range of possible outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are basically on top of one another). These results indicate a neutral outlook for the next 2.4 months.Theory indicates that the market-implied outlook is expected to have a negative bias because investors, in aggregate, are risk averse and thus tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. There is no way to measure the magnitude of this bias, or whether it is even present, however. The expectation of a negative bias shifts what would otherwise look like a neutral outlook to a slightly bullish view.The market-implied outlook for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023 has probabilities of negative returns that are consistently higher than those for positive returns, across a wide range of possible outcomes (the dashed red line is consistently above the solid blue line over the left ⅔ of the chart below). The maximum probability corresponds to a price return of -21%. Even with consideration of a potential negative bias, I interpret this outlook as bearish. The expected volatility calculated from this distribution is 63% (annualized).Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.The market-implied outlook for TSLA is very slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023, but bearish from now until mid-June of 2023. This suggests that TSLA may have gotten a bit oversold in the current sell-off, so a bounce in the next couple of months would not be a surprise. Over the longer-term, however, the outlook is somewhat bearish. In my analysis in late May, the 7.9-month outlook to January 20, 2023 was much more bearish than the current 7.2-month outlook to June of 2023. The expected volatility calculated in late May, 74%, was notably higher than the current estimation for expected volatility. The current outlook to the middle of 2023 is bearish, with high volatility, but the probability of large declines in the share price is lower than it was in late May.SummaryTesla has generated exceptional revenue growth in recent years, justifying a substantial premium on the share price as compared to other auto manufacturers and many successful tech companies, as well. That said, the value of a share of TSLA should be quite sensitive to prevailing interest rates as well as any shortfalls in the growth trajectory. With substantial gains in interest rates in 2022, along with concerns about slowing sales growth in China and Q3’s revenue miss, how does one evaluate TSLA? The Wall Street consensus outlook is of limited value because there is such a high level of disagreement between the analysts who follow the company. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target implies a gain of around 50% from current levels, but I have little confidence in the usefulness of these metrics. If anything, the high consensus price target with high dispersion in the individual price targets is a somewhat bearish indicator. The market-implied outlook for TSLA is slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023 but moderately bearish to the middle of 2023. I am maintaining my sell rating on TSLA, although there is decent potential for some price recovery through the end of this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034897566,"gmtCreate":1647846233789,"gmtModify":1676534271274,"author":{"id":"3568200501659310","authorId":"3568200501659310","name":"ckh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046085c4c23df63d33eb436617a32ed6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568200501659310","authorIdStr":"3568200501659310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034897566","repostId":"1173921394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173921394","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647819269,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173921394?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-03-21 07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Poised to Open Slightly Higher on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173921394","media":"Barron's","summary":"U.S. stocks are set to open Monday slightly up. On Sunday night, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 18 points, or 0.05%, while the S&P 500 futures gained 0.09% and Nasdaq Composite futures we","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks are set to open Monday slightly up. On Sunday night, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 18 points, or 0.05%, while the S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.09% and Nasdaq Composite futures were flat.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, rose 0.5%, to around $105.25 a barrel.</p><p>Diplomacy is in focus this week as President Joe Biden heads to Brussels for a two-day meeting with allies from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European nations. They will talk about the West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.</p><p>In addition, this week, the Senate Judiciary Committee will start its hearings on the nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court.</p><p>This week’s earnings include: Nike on Monday; Adobe on Tuesday; Cintas, General Mills, KB Home on Wednesday; and Darden Restaurants, FactSet Research Systems, and NIO on Thursday.</p><p>This week’s notable economic events include: On Wednesday, the Census Bureau releases new-home sales data for February. On Thursday, the Census Bureau will release February’s durable goods report—often seen as a proxy for business investment, and the Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ended March 19. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors will release the Pending Home Sales Index for February.</p><h2>Nvidia, Moderna, Nike, Adobe, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</h2><p>Earnings highlights this week include Nike on Monday, Adobe on Tuesday, General Mills on Wednesday, and Darden Restaurants on Thursday. Nvidia will hold an investor day on Tuesday and Moderna will host an event Thursday to discuss its vaccine pipeline.</p><p>Economic data out this week will include the Census Bureau’s new-home sales data for February on Wednesday, followed by the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index for February on Friday.</p><p>The Census Bureau will also release the durable goods report for February on Thursday—often seen as a proxy for business investment. Total new orders are expected to decline 0.5% from January, but when excluding transportation, they are seen rising 0.5%.</p><p>Geopolitics will also be in focus this week. U.S. President Joe Biden will travel to Brussels for a two-day meeting with NATO and EU leaders. The focus will be Western allies’ response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.</p><h2>Monday 3/21</h2><p>Nike reports third-quarter fiscal-2022 results.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago releases its National Activity Index for February. Economists forecast a 0.55 reading, slightly lower than the January data. The index has had four consecutive positive monthly readings, which is associated with the economy growing faster than historical trends.</p><h2>Tuesday 3/22</h2><p>Adobe announces first-quarter fiscal-2022 earnings.</p><p>NetApp and Nvidia hold their 2022 investor days.</p><h2>Wednesday 3/23</h2><p>Cintas and General Mills report quarterly results.</p><p>Occidental Petroleum holds an investor meeting to discuss its low-carbon strategy. Shares of the upstream oil-and-gas company are up 94% this year, making it the best performer in the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p>The Census Bureau reports new-home sales data for February. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000 new single-family houses sold, roughly even with the January figure. The average selling price for a new home was a record $496,900 in January, while the median price was $422,300.</p><h2>Thursday 3/24</h2><p>President Biden meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels.</p><p>Darden Restaurants, FactSet Research Systems, and NIO hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p>Moderna hosts its third annual Vaccines Day virtually. The mRNA-therapeutics pioneer will discuss the progress of its vaccines pipeline.</p><p>The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for February. New orders for manufactured durable goods are expected to decline 0.5% month over month to $277 billion. Excluding transportation, orders for durable goods are seen rising 0.5%, after increasing 0.7% in January.</p><p>The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 19. Claims have averaged 223,000 for the past four weeks and have normalized to roughly prepandemic levels. Continuing claims—the number of people receiving benefits under regular state unemployment-insurance programs—totaled 1.42 million as of March 5. That is the lowest figure in more than five decades, underscoring the tight labor market as job openings continue to outpace job seekers.</p><h2>Friday 3/25</h2><p>The National Association of Realtors reports its Pending Home Sales Index for February. Economists forecast a 1% increase in pending home sales, after a 5.7% drop in January.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Poised to Open Slightly Higher on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Poised to Open Slightly Higher on Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-21 07:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-stocks-poised-to-open-slightly-higher-on-monday-51647816432?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. stocks are set to open Monday slightly up. On Sunday night, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 18 points, or 0.05%, while the S&P 500 futures gained 0.09% and Nasdaq Composite futures ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-stocks-poised-to-open-slightly-higher-on-monday-51647816432?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe","NKE":"耐克","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-stocks-poised-to-open-slightly-higher-on-monday-51647816432?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173921394","content_text":"U.S. stocks are set to open Monday slightly up. On Sunday night, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 18 points, or 0.05%, while the S&P 500 futures gained 0.09% and Nasdaq Composite futures were flat.West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, rose 0.5%, to around $105.25 a barrel.Diplomacy is in focus this week as President Joe Biden heads to Brussels for a two-day meeting with allies from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European nations. They will talk about the West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.In addition, this week, the Senate Judiciary Committee will start its hearings on the nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court.This week’s earnings include: Nike on Monday; Adobe on Tuesday; Cintas, General Mills, KB Home on Wednesday; and Darden Restaurants, FactSet Research Systems, and NIO on Thursday.This week’s notable economic events include: On Wednesday, the Census Bureau releases new-home sales data for February. On Thursday, the Census Bureau will release February’s durable goods report—often seen as a proxy for business investment, and the Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ended March 19. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors will release the Pending Home Sales Index for February.Nvidia, Moderna, Nike, Adobe, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This WeekEarnings highlights this week include Nike on Monday, Adobe on Tuesday, General Mills on Wednesday, and Darden Restaurants on Thursday. Nvidia will hold an investor day on Tuesday and Moderna will host an event Thursday to discuss its vaccine pipeline.Economic data out this week will include the Census Bureau’s new-home sales data for February on Wednesday, followed by the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index for February on Friday.The Census Bureau will also release the durable goods report for February on Thursday—often seen as a proxy for business investment. Total new orders are expected to decline 0.5% from January, but when excluding transportation, they are seen rising 0.5%.Geopolitics will also be in focus this week. U.S. President Joe Biden will travel to Brussels for a two-day meeting with NATO and EU leaders. The focus will be Western allies’ response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Monday 3/21Nike reports third-quarter fiscal-2022 results.The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago releases its National Activity Index for February. Economists forecast a 0.55 reading, slightly lower than the January data. The index has had four consecutive positive monthly readings, which is associated with the economy growing faster than historical trends.Tuesday 3/22Adobe announces first-quarter fiscal-2022 earnings.NetApp and Nvidia hold their 2022 investor days.Wednesday 3/23Cintas and General Mills report quarterly results.Occidental Petroleum holds an investor meeting to discuss its low-carbon strategy. Shares of the upstream oil-and-gas company are up 94% this year, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 index.The Census Bureau reports new-home sales data for February. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000 new single-family houses sold, roughly even with the January figure. The average selling price for a new home was a record $496,900 in January, while the median price was $422,300.Thursday 3/24President Biden meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels.Darden Restaurants, FactSet Research Systems, and NIO hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.Moderna hosts its third annual Vaccines Day virtually. The mRNA-therapeutics pioneer will discuss the progress of its vaccines pipeline.The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for February. New orders for manufactured durable goods are expected to decline 0.5% month over month to $277 billion. Excluding transportation, orders for durable goods are seen rising 0.5%, after increasing 0.7% in January.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 19. Claims have averaged 223,000 for the past four weeks and have normalized to roughly prepandemic levels. Continuing claims—the number of people receiving benefits under regular state unemployment-insurance programs—totaled 1.42 million as of March 5. That is the lowest figure in more than five decades, underscoring the tight labor market as job openings continue to outpace job seekers.Friday 3/25The National Association of Realtors reports its Pending Home Sales Index for February. Economists forecast a 1% increase in pending home sales, after a 5.7% drop in January.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}