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2024-06-07
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2023-03-02
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2023-03-02
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IPO Preview | Migo Group, with "no mines at home," files for IPO again; potash fertilizer leader also has "hidden concerns."
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","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940387553","repostId":"2316066687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940387206,"gmtCreate":1677703299905,"gmtModify":1677707119919,"author":{"id":"3570592308724570","authorId":"3570592308724570","name":"Futttt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a295597bd937bc31607ca46ee06dacd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570592308724570","idStr":"3570592308724570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940387206","repostId":"2316180126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2316180126","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677669670,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316180126?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-01 19:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"IPO Preview | Migo Group, with \"no mines at home,\" files for IPO again; potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden concerns.\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316180126","media":"智通财经","summary":"2月28日，米高集团控股有限公司再度向港交所主板递交上市申请书，，广发融资(香港)为独家保荐人。截止目前，该公司拥有三条氯化钾造粒线、40条硫酸钾生产线及三条复合肥生产线，拥有在中国黑龙江省、吉林省、贵州省以及广东省五个主要的生产设施。然而，需要注意的是，米高集团业绩走高的背后，亦存有较为明显的大客户“依赖症”。而除了面临原材料“断供”的风险，米高集团还要面对不断上涨的原材料价格。","content":"<p><html><body>In the past year or two, under the impact of multiple factors such as the pandemic and geopolitics, the fertilizer industry has shown a rare \"both volume and price increase\" in many years.</p><p>Taking the potash fertilizer industry as an example, many potash fertilizer concept stocks that have disclosed their 2022 earnings forecasts have achieved a \"qualitative leap\" in performance. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000408\">Zangge Mining</a>(000408.SZ) expects its full-year profit for 2022 to be between RMB 5.63 billion and RMB 5.78 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 294.44% to 304.95%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Group</a>(000792.SZ) expects its net profit in 2022 to be between RMB 15 billion and RMB 15.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 234.94% to 248.33%.</p><p>As the industry booms significantly, Micol Group, one of the leading potash fertilizer companies, has also accelerated its capitalization pace.</p><p>On February 28, Migo Group Holdings Limited (hereinafter referred to as \"Migo Group\") submitted another listing application to the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with GF Capital (Hong Kong) as the sole sponsor. In fact, the company submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 6, 2022, but it ultimately failed.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time that Michael Group has gone public. The company was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada in 2006, but was delisted after being privatized in 2016.</p><p>According to Zhitong Finance APP, the company was established in 2013 and is mainly engaged in the production and sales of various potash fertilizer products, including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate, and compound fertilizers. To date, the company owns three potassium chloride granulation lines, 40 potassium sulfate production lines, and three compound fertilizer production lines, and has five major production facilities in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Guizhou, and Guangdong provinces of China.</p><p>With the help of its strong business footprint, Michael Group has also secured a leading position. According to a Frost & Sullivan report, based on potash fertilizer sales in 2021, Michael Group ranked fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies and third among non-reserve potash fertilizer companies in China. Based on the sales volume of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate in 2021, Migo Group ranked fourth, fifth and fifth respectively among potash fertilizer companies in China.</p><p>So, what exactly is the quality of this \"leading potash fertilizer company\"?</p><p>Potassium chloride \"both volume and price increase\" VS. major customer \"dependence\"</p><p>Undoubtedly, benefiting from the \"both volume and price increases\" in the fertilizer industry, Migo Group's core financial data also shows a relatively positive side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022 (ending March 31), Migo Group achieved revenues of RMB 1.821 billion, RMB 2.082 billion, and RMB 3.841 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 84% in the latter two years. Gross profits were RMB 114 million, RMB 251 million, and RMB 633 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 120% and 152% in the following two years. The company achieved net profits of 29 million yuan, 207 million yuan, and 397 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 614% and 92% in the following two years.</p><p>For the first eight months of fiscal year 2023 (ending November 30, 2022), the company achieved revenue of RMB 2.727 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit of RMB 237 million, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669792865779.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669792865779.png\"/></center><center>(Data source: Migo Group prospectus)</center>Looking at the business structure, Migo Group's revenue has increased significantly in recent years, mainly due to the increase in both volume and price of its core product, potassium chloride (which accounts for more than 80% of revenue).</p><p>It is understood that since 2020, affected by global food security issues and geopolitics, the supply and demand of potash fertilizer have been tight. In addition to a surge in sales, the price of the company's potash fertilizer products has also risen sharply. In fiscal year 2022, the average selling price of potassium chloride, the company's main product, surged 66% year-on-year to RMB 2,867.7 per ton. As a result, the revenue share of potassium chloride also increased rapidly, from 61% in fiscal year 2020 to 82.8% in fiscal year 2022.</p><p>However, it should be noted that behind Migo Group's high performance lies a relatively obvious \"dependence\" on major clients.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, the company's sales to its five major customers were RMB 875 million, RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.283 billion, and RMB 1.521 billion, respectively, accounting for approximately 48.1%, 58.1%, 59.4%, and 55.8% of the company's total revenue.</p><p>It is understood that the company's five major clients are mainly tobacco companies, state-owned farms, and agricultural comprehensive companies. During the reporting period, the company's sales to its largest customer were approximately RMB 214 million, RMB 580 million, RMB 861 million and RMB 418 million, respectively, accounting for 11.7%, 27.9%, 22.4% and 15.3% of total revenue.</p><p>Therefore, it can be seen that, benefiting from the \"both volume and price increases\" in the potash fertilizer industry, although Migo Group's performance has jumped significantly in recent years, the company still has certain concerns about its development - if the demand for the company from major customers decreases, the company's performance may be significantly adversely affected.</p><p>The economy continues to rise, but \"not having any minerals at home\" remains a problem.</p><p>From the current perspective, it is undoubtedly an established fact that Migo Group's performance has increased significantly, benefiting from the industry's prosperity, which also constitutes its core investment value.</p><p>However, if we want to continue to judge the future performance trajectory and growth value of Migo Group, we probably still need to focus on the development potential of the entire industry.</p><p>It is understood that with the vigorous development of China's agriculture in recent years, the market demand for potash fertilizer is also increasing day by day. In 2021, the market size of China in terms of potassium chloride sales reached 15.23 million tons, accounting for 74.3% of the total sales of potash fertilizer. In 2021, the sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate reached 4.40 million tonnes and 0.87 million tonnes, respectively.</p><p>Looking ahead, the market size in terms of potash fertilizer sales volume is expected to further increase, with potassium chloride sales volume increasing from 15.41 million tonnes in 2022 to 16.78 million tonnes in 2026, representing a CAGR of 2.1%. The sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 5.01 million tonnes and 0.96 million tonnes respectively by 2026, representing a CAGR of 3.1% and 2.6% from 2022 to 2026.</p><p><span><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669807946682.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669807946682.png\"/></span></p><p><span>(Data source: Migo Group)</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to China's limited potassium resources, a large portion of its annual demand for potassium chloride is met through overseas imports.</p><p>In 2021, approximately 50% of the total sales volume of potassium chloride in China came from foreign countries. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the import volume of potassium chloride increased from 7,533 thousand tons in 2017 to 7,566 thousand tons in 2021, with slight fluctuations. In 2021, Russia, Canada and Belarus were the three largest importers of potassium chloride in China, accounting for approximately 29.8%, 27.4% and 23.1% of China's total potassium chloride imports, respectively.</p><p>Moreover, there is another very important problem facing potash fertilizer producers like Michael Group—that the raw materials for producing potash fertilizer are \"controlled by others\".</p><p>Potassium chloride has always been the main raw material for the company's potash fertilizer production. During the reporting period, the company's potassium chloride purchases accounted for more than 75.0% of its total purchases. Given the relatively uneven distribution of global potash and alkali reserves, the company mainly relies on imports for its raw materials. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, Canada, Belarus and Russia are the three countries with the highest reserves in the world, accounting for more than 60% of the world's potash reserves in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669821643895.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669821643895.png\"/></p><p>(Data source: Migo Group)</p><p>Against this backdrop, Micol Group also faces significant uncertainties in global potassium chloride supply and the risk of fluctuations in potassium chloride procurement prices and costs.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that since 2021, the global supply of potash fertilizer and potash fertilizer raw materials has been disrupted by various factors. For example, sanctions against Belarus in the potash sector since mid-2021 have disrupted Belarus' global supply of potassium chloride. Alternatively, the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022 and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have further exacerbated the uncertainty of global potassium chloride supply.</p><p>The uncertainty of potassium chloride supply has undoubtedly exacerbated the \"supply disruption risk\" of Micol Group's raw materials. For example, in December 2021, one of Micol Group's major suppliers from Belarus was included in the relevant list. As a result, the company had to suspend procurement and instead increase its procurement of potassium chloride from Russia. In response, the company frankly stated in its prospectus that \"the company's current potassium chloride procurement is heavily reliant on potassium chloride it purchases from Russia, and any further sanctions imposed on the Russian potash fertilizer market will have a significant adverse impact on the company's business.\"</p><p>In addition to facing the risk of raw material supply disruptions, Migo Group also has to deal with ever-rising raw material prices.</p><p>From fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022, the company's cost of sales was RMB 1.707 billion, RMB 1.831 billion and RMB 3.208 billion, respectively. Among them, the procurement cost of potassium chloride continued to rise, accounting for 76.5%, 77.7% and 86.6% of its total direct material procurement, respectively. The unit sales cost of potassium chloride increased from RMB 1,827.1 in fiscal year 2020 to RMB 2,438.9 in fiscal year 2022. If the price of potassium chloride rises further due to external factors, and the company is unable to pass on the increase to its customers, the company's profit margin will decrease and its financial performance may be materially and adversely affected.</p><p>In conclusion, whether considering its own operating performance or the external development environment, the investment value of Migo Group, a \"leading potash fertilizer company,\" is not as impressive as it appears to outsiders.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO Preview | Migo Group, with \"no mines at home,\" files for IPO again; potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden concerns.\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO Preview | Migo Group, with \"no mines at home,\" files for IPO again; potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden concerns.\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-01 19:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>In the past year or two, under the impact of multiple factors such as the pandemic and geopolitics, the fertilizer industry has shown a rare \"both volume and price increase\" in many years.</p><p>Taking the potash fertilizer industry as an example, many potash fertilizer concept stocks that have disclosed their 2022 earnings forecasts have achieved a \"qualitative leap\" in performance. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000408\">Zangge Mining</a>(000408.SZ) expects its full-year profit for 2022 to be between RMB 5.63 billion and RMB 5.78 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 294.44% to 304.95%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Group</a>(000792.SZ) expects its net profit in 2022 to be between RMB 15 billion and RMB 15.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 234.94% to 248.33%.</p><p>As the industry booms significantly, Micol Group, one of the leading potash fertilizer companies, has also accelerated its capitalization pace.</p><p>On February 28, Migo Group Holdings Limited (hereinafter referred to as \"Migo Group\") submitted another listing application to the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with GF Capital (Hong Kong) as the sole sponsor. In fact, the company submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 6, 2022, but it ultimately failed.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time that Michael Group has gone public. The company was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada in 2006, but was delisted after being privatized in 2016.</p><p>According to Zhitong Finance APP, the company was established in 2013 and is mainly engaged in the production and sales of various potash fertilizer products, including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate, and compound fertilizers. To date, the company owns three potassium chloride granulation lines, 40 potassium sulfate production lines, and three compound fertilizer production lines, and has five major production facilities in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Guizhou, and Guangdong provinces of China.</p><p>With the help of its strong business footprint, Michael Group has also secured a leading position. According to a Frost & Sullivan report, based on potash fertilizer sales in 2021, Michael Group ranked fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies and third among non-reserve potash fertilizer companies in China. Based on the sales volume of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate in 2021, Migo Group ranked fourth, fifth and fifth respectively among potash fertilizer companies in China.</p><p>So, what exactly is the quality of this \"leading potash fertilizer company\"?</p><p>Potassium chloride \"both volume and price increase\" VS. major customer \"dependence\"</p><p>Undoubtedly, benefiting from the \"both volume and price increases\" in the fertilizer industry, Migo Group's core financial data also shows a relatively positive side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022 (ending March 31), Migo Group achieved revenues of RMB 1.821 billion, RMB 2.082 billion, and RMB 3.841 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 84% in the latter two years. Gross profits were RMB 114 million, RMB 251 million, and RMB 633 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 120% and 152% in the following two years. The company achieved net profits of 29 million yuan, 207 million yuan, and 397 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 614% and 92% in the following two years.</p><p>For the first eight months of fiscal year 2023 (ending November 30, 2022), the company achieved revenue of RMB 2.727 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit of RMB 237 million, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669792865779.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669792865779.png\"/></center><center>(Data source: Migo Group prospectus)</center>Looking at the business structure, Migo Group's revenue has increased significantly in recent years, mainly due to the increase in both volume and price of its core product, potassium chloride (which accounts for more than 80% of revenue).</p><p>It is understood that since 2020, affected by global food security issues and geopolitics, the supply and demand of potash fertilizer have been tight. In addition to a surge in sales, the price of the company's potash fertilizer products has also risen sharply. In fiscal year 2022, the average selling price of potassium chloride, the company's main product, surged 66% year-on-year to RMB 2,867.7 per ton. As a result, the revenue share of potassium chloride also increased rapidly, from 61% in fiscal year 2020 to 82.8% in fiscal year 2022.</p><p>However, it should be noted that behind Migo Group's high performance lies a relatively obvious \"dependence\" on major clients.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, the company's sales to its five major customers were RMB 875 million, RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.283 billion, and RMB 1.521 billion, respectively, accounting for approximately 48.1%, 58.1%, 59.4%, and 55.8% of the company's total revenue.</p><p>It is understood that the company's five major clients are mainly tobacco companies, state-owned farms, and agricultural comprehensive companies. During the reporting period, the company's sales to its largest customer were approximately RMB 214 million, RMB 580 million, RMB 861 million and RMB 418 million, respectively, accounting for 11.7%, 27.9%, 22.4% and 15.3% of total revenue.</p><p>Therefore, it can be seen that, benefiting from the \"both volume and price increases\" in the potash fertilizer industry, although Migo Group's performance has jumped significantly in recent years, the company still has certain concerns about its development - if the demand for the company from major customers decreases, the company's performance may be significantly adversely affected.</p><p>The economy continues to rise, but \"not having any minerals at home\" remains a problem.</p><p>From the current perspective, it is undoubtedly an established fact that Migo Group's performance has increased significantly, benefiting from the industry's prosperity, which also constitutes its core investment value.</p><p>However, if we want to continue to judge the future performance trajectory and growth value of Migo Group, we probably still need to focus on the development potential of the entire industry.</p><p>It is understood that with the vigorous development of China's agriculture in recent years, the market demand for potash fertilizer is also increasing day by day. In 2021, the market size of China in terms of potassium chloride sales reached 15.23 million tons, accounting for 74.3% of the total sales of potash fertilizer. In 2021, the sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate reached 4.40 million tonnes and 0.87 million tonnes, respectively.</p><p>Looking ahead, the market size in terms of potash fertilizer sales volume is expected to further increase, with potassium chloride sales volume increasing from 15.41 million tonnes in 2022 to 16.78 million tonnes in 2026, representing a CAGR of 2.1%. The sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 5.01 million tonnes and 0.96 million tonnes respectively by 2026, representing a CAGR of 3.1% and 2.6% from 2022 to 2026.</p><p><span><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669807946682.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669807946682.png\"/></span></p><p><span>(Data source: Migo Group)</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to China's limited potassium resources, a large portion of its annual demand for potassium chloride is met through overseas imports.</p><p>In 2021, approximately 50% of the total sales volume of potassium chloride in China came from foreign countries. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the import volume of potassium chloride increased from 7,533 thousand tons in 2017 to 7,566 thousand tons in 2021, with slight fluctuations. In 2021, Russia, Canada and Belarus were the three largest importers of potassium chloride in China, accounting for approximately 29.8%, 27.4% and 23.1% of China's total potassium chloride imports, respectively.</p><p>Moreover, there is another very important problem facing potash fertilizer producers like Michael Group—that the raw materials for producing potash fertilizer are \"controlled by others\".</p><p>Potassium chloride has always been the main raw material for the company's potash fertilizer production. During the reporting period, the company's potassium chloride purchases accounted for more than 75.0% of its total purchases. Given the relatively uneven distribution of global potash and alkali reserves, the company mainly relies on imports for its raw materials. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, Canada, Belarus and Russia are the three countries with the highest reserves in the world, accounting for more than 60% of the world's potash reserves in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669821643895.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669821643895.png\"/></p><p>(Data source: Migo Group)</p><p>Against this backdrop, Micol Group also faces significant uncertainties in global potassium chloride supply and the risk of fluctuations in potassium chloride procurement prices and costs.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that since 2021, the global supply of potash fertilizer and potash fertilizer raw materials has been disrupted by various factors. For example, sanctions against Belarus in the potash sector since mid-2021 have disrupted Belarus' global supply of potassium chloride. Alternatively, the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022 and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have further exacerbated the uncertainty of global potassium chloride supply.</p><p>The uncertainty of potassium chloride supply has undoubtedly exacerbated the \"supply disruption risk\" of Micol Group's raw materials. For example, in December 2021, one of Micol Group's major suppliers from Belarus was included in the relevant list. As a result, the company had to suspend procurement and instead increase its procurement of potassium chloride from Russia. In response, the company frankly stated in its prospectus that \"the company's current potassium chloride procurement is heavily reliant on potassium chloride it purchases from Russia, and any further sanctions imposed on the Russian potash fertilizer market will have a significant adverse impact on the company's business.\"</p><p>In addition to facing the risk of raw material supply disruptions, Migo Group also has to deal with ever-rising raw material prices.</p><p>From fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022, the company's cost of sales was RMB 1.707 billion, RMB 1.831 billion and RMB 3.208 billion, respectively. Among them, the procurement cost of potassium chloride continued to rise, accounting for 76.5%, 77.7% and 86.6% of its total direct material procurement, respectively. The unit sales cost of potassium chloride increased from RMB 1,827.1 in fiscal year 2020 to RMB 2,438.9 in fiscal year 2022. If the price of potassium chloride rises further due to external factors, and the company is unable to pass on the increase to its customers, the company's profit margin will decrease and its financial performance may be materially and adversely affected.</p><p>In conclusion, whether considering its own operating performance or the external development environment, the investment value of Migo Group, a \"leading potash fertilizer company,\" is not as impressive as it appears to outsiders.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/885396.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0028":"国家队","000792":"盐湖股份","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0155":"锂电池","BK0127":"黄金珠宝","000408":"藏格矿业","BK0196":"行业龙头","09879":"米高集团","BK0229":"化学制品","BK0182":"小金属"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/885396.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316180126","content_text":"近一两年来，在疫情冲击、地缘政治等多重因素冲击下，化肥行业显现了多年难遇的“量价齐升”行情。以细分赛道钾肥行业为例，多家已披露2022年业绩预告的钾肥概念股业绩均实现了“质的飞跃”。其中，藏格矿业(000408.SZ)预计2022年全年盈利56.3亿元至57.8亿元，同比上年增294.44%至304.95%;盐湖股份(000792.SZ)则预计2022年净利润150亿元-156亿元同比增长234.94%–248.33%。行业景气度大幅上行之际，钾肥龙头之一的米高集团也加快了资本化的步伐。2月28日，米高集团控股有限公司(简称“米高集团”)再度向港交所主板递交上市申请书，，广发融资(香港)为独家保荐人。事实上，该公司曾于于2022年7月6日向港交所提交过上市申请，但最终以“失效”告终。而值一提的是，这并非是米高集团第一次上市，该公司曾在2006年在加拿大多伦多证券交易所上市，不过在2016年私有化后退市。智通财经APP了解到，该公司成立于2013年，主要从事包括氯化钾、硫酸钾、硝酸钾以及复合肥等各类钾肥产品的生产和销售。截止目前，该公司拥有三条氯化钾造粒线、40条硫酸钾生产线及三条复合肥生产线，拥有在中国黑龙江省、吉林省、贵州省以及广东省五个主要的生产设施。强大的业务版图助力下，米高集团也在龙头位置上占据了“一席之地”——据弗若斯特沙利文报告，按2021年度钾肥销量计算，米高集团在中国钾肥公司中排名第五，在中国非储备型钾肥公司中排名第三。按2021年度的氯化钾、硫酸钾及硝酸钾销量计算，于中国钾肥公司中，米高集团分别排名第四、第五和第五。那么，这家“钾肥龙头”的质地究竟如何呢?氯化钾“量价齐升”VS大客户“依赖症”毫无疑问，受益于化肥行业的“量价齐升”，米高集团的核心财务数据也体现出了较为靓丽的一面。据招股书显示，2020财年至2022财年(财政年度截止日期为3月31日)，米高集团实现收入分别为18.21亿元、20.82亿元、38.41亿元，后两年分别同比增长为14%和84%;实现毛利分别为1.14亿元、2.51亿元以及6.33亿元，后两年分别同比增长120%和152%;实现净利润分别为 0.29亿、2.07亿、3.97亿，后两年分别同比增长614%和92%。截至2023财年前8月(截至2022年11月30日)，该公司实现收入为27.27亿元，同比增长33%，实现净利润为2.37亿元，同比微降7%。(数据来源：米高集团招股书)拆分业务结构来看，米高集团近几年的营收大幅增长，主要得益于公司核心产品氯化钾(收入占比高达80%以上)“量价齐升”所致。据悉，2020年以来，受全球粮食安全问题影响以及地缘政治导致钾肥供需紧张，除了销量大增，公司钾肥产品的价格也大涨。在2022财年，氯化钾作为公司的主营产品，其平均售价同比飙升66%至2867.7元每吨。在此影响下氯化钾的收入占比也迅速增长，由2020财年的61%大幅增至2022财年82.8%。然而，需要注意的是，米高集团业绩走高的背后，亦存有较为明显的大客户“依赖症”。招股书披露，2020财年至2023财年前8月，该公司对五大客户的销售额分别为8.75亿元、12.10亿元、22.83亿元、15.21亿元，分别约占公司总收入的48.1%、58.1%、59.4%及55.8%。据了解，该公司的五大客户主要是烟草公司、农垦公司及农业综合公司。报告期内，该公司对最大客户的销售额分别约为2.14亿元、5.80亿元、8.61亿元及4.18亿元，占总收入分别为11.7%、27.9%、22.4%及15.3%。由此，可以看到，受益于钾肥行业的“量价齐升”利好，虽然米高集团近几年业绩大幅跃升，但该公司还是存有一定的发展隐忧——一旦大客户对公司的需求下降，该公司的业绩或受到较为明显的不利影响。景气度继续上行，但“家中无矿”是个难题站在当下来看，受益于行业景气度推动，米高集团业绩大幅走高无疑是一个摆在台面上的既定事实，而这也构成了其核心的投资价值。但若想继续判断米高集团后续的业绩轨迹和成长价值，恐怕仍需将目光聚焦到整个行业的发展潜力上。据悉，随着中国农业近几年的蓬勃发展，市场对钾肥的需求也与日俱增——2021年中国按氯化钾销量计的市场规模达到15.23百万吨，占钾肥总销量的74.3%。2021年硫酸钾及硝酸钾的销量分别达到4.40百万吨及0.87百万吨。展望未来，预测按钾肥销量计的市场规模进一步增加，氯化钾销量由2022年的15.41百万吨增至2026年的16.78百万吨，复合年增长率为2.1%。而硫酸钾及硝酸钾的销量至2026年则将分别达到5.01百万吨及0.96百万吨，2022年至2026年的复合年增长率为3.1%及2.6%。(数据来源：米高集团)不过，需要注意的是，由于中国钾资源有限，每年对氯化钾的需求中有很大一部分是通过海外进口弥补。于2021年，中国氯化钾总销量约50%来自外国。根据中华人民共和国海关总署发布的数据，氯化钾进口量由2017年的7,533千吨增加至2021年的7,566千吨，略有波动。于2021年，俄罗斯、加拿大及白罗斯为中国三大氯化钾进口国，分别约占中国氯化钾进口总量的29.8%、27.4%及23.1%。不仅如此，还有一个很重要的问题亦摆在如米高集团一样的钾肥生产商上——即生产钾肥的原材料“受制于人”。一直以来，氯化钾都是公司钾肥生产的主要原材料。报告期内，公司的氯化钾采购额占其采购总额的75.0%以上。在全球钾硷储量分布相对不均的背景下，公司的原材料主要依靠进口。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，加拿大、白罗斯及俄罗斯是世界上储量最高的三个国家，于2021年，该三个国家的钾硷储量占全球钾硷储量的60%以上。(数据来源：米高集团)此背景下，米高集团还面临着较大的全球氯化钾供应不确定性和氯化钾的采购价及采购成本波动的风险。智通财经APP观察到，自2021年以来，全球钾肥及钾肥原料供应受到各种因素的干扰。比如说，自2021年年中 以来针对白罗斯钾硷领域的制裁已导致白罗斯对全球的氯化钾供应中断。再或者是，于2022年2月开始的俄乌冲突以及由西方国家就此对俄罗斯实施的制裁措施进一步加剧全球氯化钾供应的不确定性。氯化钾供应的不确定性，无疑也加剧了米高集团原材料的“断供风险”——譬如，2021年12月，米高集团的其中一家来自白罗斯的主要供应商被列入相关名单，受此影响，公司不得不中断采购，转而增加向俄罗斯采购氯化钾。对此，该公司也在招股书中坦言称，“公司目前的氯化钾采购十分依赖其从俄罗斯所采购的氯化钾，若俄罗斯的钾肥相关市场遭受到任何进一步的制裁都将对公司业务产生重大不利影响”。而除了面临原材料“断供”的风险，米高集团还要面对不断上涨的原材料价格。2020财年至2022财年，公司销货成本分别为17.07亿元、18.31亿元及32.08亿元，其中，氯化钾的采购成本不断上升，分别占其直接材料采购总额的76.5%、77.7%及86.6%，每吨氯化钾单位销货成本已由2020财年的1827.1元增加至2022财年的2438.9元。若在外部原因的影响下，氯化钾价格进一步上涨，而公司无法将上涨转嫁给客户，公司利润率将会降低，且财务表现可能会受到重大不利影响。综上来看，不论是自身经营业绩来看，还是外在发展环境来看，米高集团这家“钾肥龙头”的投资价值并非外界所看到的那么靓丽。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000408":1,"000792":1,"09879":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":314070149267512,"gmtCreate":1717697756871,"gmtModify":1717697761702,"author":{"id":"3570592308724570","authorId":"3570592308724570","name":"Futttt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a295597bd937bc31607ca46ee06dacd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570592308724570","idStr":"3570592308724570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CORZ\">$Core Scientific, Inc.(CORZ)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CORZ\">$Core Scientific, Inc.(CORZ)$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CORZ\">$Core Scientific, Inc.(CORZ)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CORZ\">$Core Scientific, Inc.(CORZ)$</a> ","text":"$Core Scientific, Inc.(CORZ)$ $Core Scientific, 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","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940387467","repostId":"1159826389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940387553,"gmtCreate":1677703309573,"gmtModify":1677707123065,"author":{"id":"3570592308724570","authorId":"3570592308724570","name":"Futttt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a295597bd937bc31607ca46ee06dacd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570592308724570","idStr":"3570592308724570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940387553","repostId":"2316066687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940387206,"gmtCreate":1677703299905,"gmtModify":1677707119919,"author":{"id":"3570592308724570","authorId":"3570592308724570","name":"Futttt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a295597bd937bc31607ca46ee06dacd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570592308724570","idStr":"3570592308724570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940387206","repostId":"2316180126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2316180126","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677669670,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316180126?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-01 19:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"IPO Preview | Migo Group, with \"no mines at home,\" files for IPO again; potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden concerns.\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316180126","media":"智通财经","summary":"2月28日，米高集团控股有限公司再度向港交所主板递交上市申请书，，广发融资(香港)为独家保荐人。截止目前，该公司拥有三条氯化钾造粒线、40条硫酸钾生产线及三条复合肥生产线，拥有在中国黑龙江省、吉林省、贵州省以及广东省五个主要的生产设施。然而，需要注意的是，米高集团业绩走高的背后，亦存有较为明显的大客户“依赖症”。而除了面临原材料“断供”的风险，米高集团还要面对不断上涨的原材料价格。","content":"<p><html><body>In the past year or two, under the impact of multiple factors such as the pandemic and geopolitics, the fertilizer industry has shown a rare \"both volume and price increase\" in many years.</p><p>Taking the potash fertilizer industry as an example, many potash fertilizer concept stocks that have disclosed their 2022 earnings forecasts have achieved a \"qualitative leap\" in performance. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000408\">Zangge Mining</a>(000408.SZ) expects its full-year profit for 2022 to be between RMB 5.63 billion and RMB 5.78 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 294.44% to 304.95%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Group</a>(000792.SZ) expects its net profit in 2022 to be between RMB 15 billion and RMB 15.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 234.94% to 248.33%.</p><p>As the industry booms significantly, Micol Group, one of the leading potash fertilizer companies, has also accelerated its capitalization pace.</p><p>On February 28, Migo Group Holdings Limited (hereinafter referred to as \"Migo Group\") submitted another listing application to the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with GF Capital (Hong Kong) as the sole sponsor. In fact, the company submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 6, 2022, but it ultimately failed.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time that Michael Group has gone public. The company was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada in 2006, but was delisted after being privatized in 2016.</p><p>According to Zhitong Finance APP, the company was established in 2013 and is mainly engaged in the production and sales of various potash fertilizer products, including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate, and compound fertilizers. To date, the company owns three potassium chloride granulation lines, 40 potassium sulfate production lines, and three compound fertilizer production lines, and has five major production facilities in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Guizhou, and Guangdong provinces of China.</p><p>With the help of its strong business footprint, Michael Group has also secured a leading position. According to a Frost & Sullivan report, based on potash fertilizer sales in 2021, Michael Group ranked fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies and third among non-reserve potash fertilizer companies in China. Based on the sales volume of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate in 2021, Migo Group ranked fourth, fifth and fifth respectively among potash fertilizer companies in China.</p><p>So, what exactly is the quality of this \"leading potash fertilizer company\"?</p><p>Potassium chloride \"both volume and price increase\" VS. major customer \"dependence\"</p><p>Undoubtedly, benefiting from the \"both volume and price increases\" in the fertilizer industry, Migo Group's core financial data also shows a relatively positive side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022 (ending March 31), Migo Group achieved revenues of RMB 1.821 billion, RMB 2.082 billion, and RMB 3.841 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 84% in the latter two years. Gross profits were RMB 114 million, RMB 251 million, and RMB 633 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 120% and 152% in the following two years. The company achieved net profits of 29 million yuan, 207 million yuan, and 397 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 614% and 92% in the following two years.</p><p>For the first eight months of fiscal year 2023 (ending November 30, 2022), the company achieved revenue of RMB 2.727 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit of RMB 237 million, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669792865779.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669792865779.png\"/></center><center>(Data source: Migo Group prospectus)</center>Looking at the business structure, Migo Group's revenue has increased significantly in recent years, mainly due to the increase in both volume and price of its core product, potassium chloride (which accounts for more than 80% of revenue).</p><p>It is understood that since 2020, affected by global food security issues and geopolitics, the supply and demand of potash fertilizer have been tight. In addition to a surge in sales, the price of the company's potash fertilizer products has also risen sharply. In fiscal year 2022, the average selling price of potassium chloride, the company's main product, surged 66% year-on-year to RMB 2,867.7 per ton. As a result, the revenue share of potassium chloride also increased rapidly, from 61% in fiscal year 2020 to 82.8% in fiscal year 2022.</p><p>However, it should be noted that behind Migo Group's high performance lies a relatively obvious \"dependence\" on major clients.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, the company's sales to its five major customers were RMB 875 million, RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.283 billion, and RMB 1.521 billion, respectively, accounting for approximately 48.1%, 58.1%, 59.4%, and 55.8% of the company's total revenue.</p><p>It is understood that the company's five major clients are mainly tobacco companies, state-owned farms, and agricultural comprehensive companies. During the reporting period, the company's sales to its largest customer were approximately RMB 214 million, RMB 580 million, RMB 861 million and RMB 418 million, respectively, accounting for 11.7%, 27.9%, 22.4% and 15.3% of total revenue.</p><p>Therefore, it can be seen that, benefiting from the \"both volume and price increases\" in the potash fertilizer industry, although Migo Group's performance has jumped significantly in recent years, the company still has certain concerns about its development - if the demand for the company from major customers decreases, the company's performance may be significantly adversely affected.</p><p>The economy continues to rise, but \"not having any minerals at home\" remains a problem.</p><p>From the current perspective, it is undoubtedly an established fact that Migo Group's performance has increased significantly, benefiting from the industry's prosperity, which also constitutes its core investment value.</p><p>However, if we want to continue to judge the future performance trajectory and growth value of Migo Group, we probably still need to focus on the development potential of the entire industry.</p><p>It is understood that with the vigorous development of China's agriculture in recent years, the market demand for potash fertilizer is also increasing day by day. In 2021, the market size of China in terms of potassium chloride sales reached 15.23 million tons, accounting for 74.3% of the total sales of potash fertilizer. In 2021, the sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate reached 4.40 million tonnes and 0.87 million tonnes, respectively.</p><p>Looking ahead, the market size in terms of potash fertilizer sales volume is expected to further increase, with potassium chloride sales volume increasing from 15.41 million tonnes in 2022 to 16.78 million tonnes in 2026, representing a CAGR of 2.1%. The sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 5.01 million tonnes and 0.96 million tonnes respectively by 2026, representing a CAGR of 3.1% and 2.6% from 2022 to 2026.</p><p><span><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669807946682.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669807946682.png\"/></span></p><p><span>(Data source: Migo Group)</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to China's limited potassium resources, a large portion of its annual demand for potassium chloride is met through overseas imports.</p><p>In 2021, approximately 50% of the total sales volume of potassium chloride in China came from foreign countries. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the import volume of potassium chloride increased from 7,533 thousand tons in 2017 to 7,566 thousand tons in 2021, with slight fluctuations. In 2021, Russia, Canada and Belarus were the three largest importers of potassium chloride in China, accounting for approximately 29.8%, 27.4% and 23.1% of China's total potassium chloride imports, respectively.</p><p>Moreover, there is another very important problem facing potash fertilizer producers like Michael Group—that the raw materials for producing potash fertilizer are \"controlled by others\".</p><p>Potassium chloride has always been the main raw material for the company's potash fertilizer production. During the reporting period, the company's potassium chloride purchases accounted for more than 75.0% of its total purchases. Given the relatively uneven distribution of global potash and alkali reserves, the company mainly relies on imports for its raw materials. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, Canada, Belarus and Russia are the three countries with the highest reserves in the world, accounting for more than 60% of the world's potash reserves in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669821643895.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669821643895.png\"/></p><p>(Data source: Migo Group)</p><p>Against this backdrop, Micol Group also faces significant uncertainties in global potassium chloride supply and the risk of fluctuations in potassium chloride procurement prices and costs.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that since 2021, the global supply of potash fertilizer and potash fertilizer raw materials has been disrupted by various factors. For example, sanctions against Belarus in the potash sector since mid-2021 have disrupted Belarus' global supply of potassium chloride. Alternatively, the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022 and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have further exacerbated the uncertainty of global potassium chloride supply.</p><p>The uncertainty of potassium chloride supply has undoubtedly exacerbated the \"supply disruption risk\" of Micol Group's raw materials. For example, in December 2021, one of Micol Group's major suppliers from Belarus was included in the relevant list. As a result, the company had to suspend procurement and instead increase its procurement of potassium chloride from Russia. In response, the company frankly stated in its prospectus that \"the company's current potassium chloride procurement is heavily reliant on potassium chloride it purchases from Russia, and any further sanctions imposed on the Russian potash fertilizer market will have a significant adverse impact on the company's business.\"</p><p>In addition to facing the risk of raw material supply disruptions, Migo Group also has to deal with ever-rising raw material prices.</p><p>From fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022, the company's cost of sales was RMB 1.707 billion, RMB 1.831 billion and RMB 3.208 billion, respectively. Among them, the procurement cost of potassium chloride continued to rise, accounting for 76.5%, 77.7% and 86.6% of its total direct material procurement, respectively. The unit sales cost of potassium chloride increased from RMB 1,827.1 in fiscal year 2020 to RMB 2,438.9 in fiscal year 2022. If the price of potassium chloride rises further due to external factors, and the company is unable to pass on the increase to its customers, the company's profit margin will decrease and its financial performance may be materially and adversely affected.</p><p>In conclusion, whether considering its own operating performance or the external development environment, the investment value of Migo Group, a \"leading potash fertilizer company,\" is not as impressive as it appears to outsiders.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO Preview | Migo Group, with \"no mines at home,\" files for IPO again; potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden concerns.\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO Preview | Migo Group, with \"no mines at home,\" files for IPO again; potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden concerns.\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-01 19:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>In the past year or two, under the impact of multiple factors such as the pandemic and geopolitics, the fertilizer industry has shown a rare \"both volume and price increase\" in many years.</p><p>Taking the potash fertilizer industry as an example, many potash fertilizer concept stocks that have disclosed their 2022 earnings forecasts have achieved a \"qualitative leap\" in performance. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000408\">Zangge Mining</a>(000408.SZ) expects its full-year profit for 2022 to be between RMB 5.63 billion and RMB 5.78 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 294.44% to 304.95%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Group</a>(000792.SZ) expects its net profit in 2022 to be between RMB 15 billion and RMB 15.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 234.94% to 248.33%.</p><p>As the industry booms significantly, Micol Group, one of the leading potash fertilizer companies, has also accelerated its capitalization pace.</p><p>On February 28, Migo Group Holdings Limited (hereinafter referred to as \"Migo Group\") submitted another listing application to the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with GF Capital (Hong Kong) as the sole sponsor. In fact, the company submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 6, 2022, but it ultimately failed.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time that Michael Group has gone public. The company was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada in 2006, but was delisted after being privatized in 2016.</p><p>According to Zhitong Finance APP, the company was established in 2013 and is mainly engaged in the production and sales of various potash fertilizer products, including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate, and compound fertilizers. To date, the company owns three potassium chloride granulation lines, 40 potassium sulfate production lines, and three compound fertilizer production lines, and has five major production facilities in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Guizhou, and Guangdong provinces of China.</p><p>With the help of its strong business footprint, Michael Group has also secured a leading position. According to a Frost & Sullivan report, based on potash fertilizer sales in 2021, Michael Group ranked fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies and third among non-reserve potash fertilizer companies in China. Based on the sales volume of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate in 2021, Migo Group ranked fourth, fifth and fifth respectively among potash fertilizer companies in China.</p><p>So, what exactly is the quality of this \"leading potash fertilizer company\"?</p><p>Potassium chloride \"both volume and price increase\" VS. major customer \"dependence\"</p><p>Undoubtedly, benefiting from the \"both volume and price increases\" in the fertilizer industry, Migo Group's core financial data also shows a relatively positive side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022 (ending March 31), Migo Group achieved revenues of RMB 1.821 billion, RMB 2.082 billion, and RMB 3.841 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 84% in the latter two years. Gross profits were RMB 114 million, RMB 251 million, and RMB 633 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 120% and 152% in the following two years. The company achieved net profits of 29 million yuan, 207 million yuan, and 397 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 614% and 92% in the following two years.</p><p>For the first eight months of fiscal year 2023 (ending November 30, 2022), the company achieved revenue of RMB 2.727 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit of RMB 237 million, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669792865779.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669792865779.png\"/></center><center>(Data source: Migo Group prospectus)</center>Looking at the business structure, Migo Group's revenue has increased significantly in recent years, mainly due to the increase in both volume and price of its core product, potassium chloride (which accounts for more than 80% of revenue).</p><p>It is understood that since 2020, affected by global food security issues and geopolitics, the supply and demand of potash fertilizer have been tight. In addition to a surge in sales, the price of the company's potash fertilizer products has also risen sharply. In fiscal year 2022, the average selling price of potassium chloride, the company's main product, surged 66% year-on-year to RMB 2,867.7 per ton. As a result, the revenue share of potassium chloride also increased rapidly, from 61% in fiscal year 2020 to 82.8% in fiscal year 2022.</p><p>However, it should be noted that behind Migo Group's high performance lies a relatively obvious \"dependence\" on major clients.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, the company's sales to its five major customers were RMB 875 million, RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.283 billion, and RMB 1.521 billion, respectively, accounting for approximately 48.1%, 58.1%, 59.4%, and 55.8% of the company's total revenue.</p><p>It is understood that the company's five major clients are mainly tobacco companies, state-owned farms, and agricultural comprehensive companies. During the reporting period, the company's sales to its largest customer were approximately RMB 214 million, RMB 580 million, RMB 861 million and RMB 418 million, respectively, accounting for 11.7%, 27.9%, 22.4% and 15.3% of total revenue.</p><p>Therefore, it can be seen that, benefiting from the \"both volume and price increases\" in the potash fertilizer industry, although Migo Group's performance has jumped significantly in recent years, the company still has certain concerns about its development - if the demand for the company from major customers decreases, the company's performance may be significantly adversely affected.</p><p>The economy continues to rise, but \"not having any minerals at home\" remains a problem.</p><p>From the current perspective, it is undoubtedly an established fact that Migo Group's performance has increased significantly, benefiting from the industry's prosperity, which also constitutes its core investment value.</p><p>However, if we want to continue to judge the future performance trajectory and growth value of Migo Group, we probably still need to focus on the development potential of the entire industry.</p><p>It is understood that with the vigorous development of China's agriculture in recent years, the market demand for potash fertilizer is also increasing day by day. In 2021, the market size of China in terms of potassium chloride sales reached 15.23 million tons, accounting for 74.3% of the total sales of potash fertilizer. In 2021, the sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate reached 4.40 million tonnes and 0.87 million tonnes, respectively.</p><p>Looking ahead, the market size in terms of potash fertilizer sales volume is expected to further increase, with potassium chloride sales volume increasing from 15.41 million tonnes in 2022 to 16.78 million tonnes in 2026, representing a CAGR of 2.1%. The sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 5.01 million tonnes and 0.96 million tonnes respectively by 2026, representing a CAGR of 3.1% and 2.6% from 2022 to 2026.</p><p><span><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669807946682.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669807946682.png\"/></span></p><p><span>(Data source: Migo Group)</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to China's limited potassium resources, a large portion of its annual demand for potassium chloride is met through overseas imports.</p><p>In 2021, approximately 50% of the total sales volume of potassium chloride in China came from foreign countries. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the import volume of potassium chloride increased from 7,533 thousand tons in 2017 to 7,566 thousand tons in 2021, with slight fluctuations. In 2021, Russia, Canada and Belarus were the three largest importers of potassium chloride in China, accounting for approximately 29.8%, 27.4% and 23.1% of China's total potassium chloride imports, respectively.</p><p>Moreover, there is another very important problem facing potash fertilizer producers like Michael Group—that the raw materials for producing potash fertilizer are \"controlled by others\".</p><p>Potassium chloride has always been the main raw material for the company's potash fertilizer production. During the reporting period, the company's potassium chloride purchases accounted for more than 75.0% of its total purchases. Given the relatively uneven distribution of global potash and alkali reserves, the company mainly relies on imports for its raw materials. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, Canada, Belarus and Russia are the three countries with the highest reserves in the world, accounting for more than 60% of the world's potash reserves in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669821643895.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669821643895.png\"/></p><p>(Data source: Migo Group)</p><p>Against this backdrop, Micol Group also faces significant uncertainties in global potassium chloride supply and the risk of fluctuations in potassium chloride procurement prices and costs.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that since 2021, the global supply of potash fertilizer and potash fertilizer raw materials has been disrupted by various factors. For example, sanctions against Belarus in the potash sector since mid-2021 have disrupted Belarus' global supply of potassium chloride. Alternatively, the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022 and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have further exacerbated the uncertainty of global potassium chloride supply.</p><p>The uncertainty of potassium chloride supply has undoubtedly exacerbated the \"supply disruption risk\" of Micol Group's raw materials. For example, in December 2021, one of Micol Group's major suppliers from Belarus was included in the relevant list. As a result, the company had to suspend procurement and instead increase its procurement of potassium chloride from Russia. In response, the company frankly stated in its prospectus that \"the company's current potassium chloride procurement is heavily reliant on potassium chloride it purchases from Russia, and any further sanctions imposed on the Russian potash fertilizer market will have a significant adverse impact on the company's business.\"</p><p>In addition to facing the risk of raw material supply disruptions, Migo Group also has to deal with ever-rising raw material prices.</p><p>From fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022, the company's cost of sales was RMB 1.707 billion, RMB 1.831 billion and RMB 3.208 billion, respectively. Among them, the procurement cost of potassium chloride continued to rise, accounting for 76.5%, 77.7% and 86.6% of its total direct material procurement, respectively. The unit sales cost of potassium chloride increased from RMB 1,827.1 in fiscal year 2020 to RMB 2,438.9 in fiscal year 2022. If the price of potassium chloride rises further due to external factors, and the company is unable to pass on the increase to its customers, the company's profit margin will decrease and its financial performance may be materially and adversely affected.</p><p>In conclusion, whether considering its own operating performance or the external development environment, the investment value of Migo Group, a \"leading potash fertilizer company,\" is not as impressive as it appears to outsiders.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/885396.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0028":"国家队","000792":"盐湖股份","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0155":"锂电池","BK0127":"黄金珠宝","000408":"藏格矿业","BK0196":"行业龙头","09879":"米高集团","BK0229":"化学制品","BK0182":"小金属"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/885396.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316180126","content_text":"近一两年来，在疫情冲击、地缘政治等多重因素冲击下，化肥行业显现了多年难遇的“量价齐升”行情。以细分赛道钾肥行业为例，多家已披露2022年业绩预告的钾肥概念股业绩均实现了“质的飞跃”。其中，藏格矿业(000408.SZ)预计2022年全年盈利56.3亿元至57.8亿元，同比上年增294.44%至304.95%;盐湖股份(000792.SZ)则预计2022年净利润150亿元-156亿元同比增长234.94%–248.33%。行业景气度大幅上行之际，钾肥龙头之一的米高集团也加快了资本化的步伐。2月28日，米高集团控股有限公司(简称“米高集团”)再度向港交所主板递交上市申请书，，广发融资(香港)为独家保荐人。事实上，该公司曾于于2022年7月6日向港交所提交过上市申请，但最终以“失效”告终。而值一提的是，这并非是米高集团第一次上市，该公司曾在2006年在加拿大多伦多证券交易所上市，不过在2016年私有化后退市。智通财经APP了解到，该公司成立于2013年，主要从事包括氯化钾、硫酸钾、硝酸钾以及复合肥等各类钾肥产品的生产和销售。截止目前，该公司拥有三条氯化钾造粒线、40条硫酸钾生产线及三条复合肥生产线，拥有在中国黑龙江省、吉林省、贵州省以及广东省五个主要的生产设施。强大的业务版图助力下，米高集团也在龙头位置上占据了“一席之地”——据弗若斯特沙利文报告，按2021年度钾肥销量计算，米高集团在中国钾肥公司中排名第五，在中国非储备型钾肥公司中排名第三。按2021年度的氯化钾、硫酸钾及硝酸钾销量计算，于中国钾肥公司中，米高集团分别排名第四、第五和第五。那么，这家“钾肥龙头”的质地究竟如何呢?氯化钾“量价齐升”VS大客户“依赖症”毫无疑问，受益于化肥行业的“量价齐升”，米高集团的核心财务数据也体现出了较为靓丽的一面。据招股书显示，2020财年至2022财年(财政年度截止日期为3月31日)，米高集团实现收入分别为18.21亿元、20.82亿元、38.41亿元，后两年分别同比增长为14%和84%;实现毛利分别为1.14亿元、2.51亿元以及6.33亿元，后两年分别同比增长120%和152%;实现净利润分别为 0.29亿、2.07亿、3.97亿，后两年分别同比增长614%和92%。截至2023财年前8月(截至2022年11月30日)，该公司实现收入为27.27亿元，同比增长33%，实现净利润为2.37亿元，同比微降7%。(数据来源：米高集团招股书)拆分业务结构来看，米高集团近几年的营收大幅增长，主要得益于公司核心产品氯化钾(收入占比高达80%以上)“量价齐升”所致。据悉，2020年以来，受全球粮食安全问题影响以及地缘政治导致钾肥供需紧张，除了销量大增，公司钾肥产品的价格也大涨。在2022财年，氯化钾作为公司的主营产品，其平均售价同比飙升66%至2867.7元每吨。在此影响下氯化钾的收入占比也迅速增长，由2020财年的61%大幅增至2022财年82.8%。然而，需要注意的是，米高集团业绩走高的背后，亦存有较为明显的大客户“依赖症”。招股书披露，2020财年至2023财年前8月，该公司对五大客户的销售额分别为8.75亿元、12.10亿元、22.83亿元、15.21亿元，分别约占公司总收入的48.1%、58.1%、59.4%及55.8%。据了解，该公司的五大客户主要是烟草公司、农垦公司及农业综合公司。报告期内，该公司对最大客户的销售额分别约为2.14亿元、5.80亿元、8.61亿元及4.18亿元，占总收入分别为11.7%、27.9%、22.4%及15.3%。由此，可以看到，受益于钾肥行业的“量价齐升”利好，虽然米高集团近几年业绩大幅跃升，但该公司还是存有一定的发展隐忧——一旦大客户对公司的需求下降，该公司的业绩或受到较为明显的不利影响。景气度继续上行，但“家中无矿”是个难题站在当下来看，受益于行业景气度推动，米高集团业绩大幅走高无疑是一个摆在台面上的既定事实，而这也构成了其核心的投资价值。但若想继续判断米高集团后续的业绩轨迹和成长价值，恐怕仍需将目光聚焦到整个行业的发展潜力上。据悉，随着中国农业近几年的蓬勃发展，市场对钾肥的需求也与日俱增——2021年中国按氯化钾销量计的市场规模达到15.23百万吨，占钾肥总销量的74.3%。2021年硫酸钾及硝酸钾的销量分别达到4.40百万吨及0.87百万吨。展望未来，预测按钾肥销量计的市场规模进一步增加，氯化钾销量由2022年的15.41百万吨增至2026年的16.78百万吨，复合年增长率为2.1%。而硫酸钾及硝酸钾的销量至2026年则将分别达到5.01百万吨及0.96百万吨，2022年至2026年的复合年增长率为3.1%及2.6%。(数据来源：米高集团)不过，需要注意的是，由于中国钾资源有限，每年对氯化钾的需求中有很大一部分是通过海外进口弥补。于2021年，中国氯化钾总销量约50%来自外国。根据中华人民共和国海关总署发布的数据，氯化钾进口量由2017年的7,533千吨增加至2021年的7,566千吨，略有波动。于2021年，俄罗斯、加拿大及白罗斯为中国三大氯化钾进口国，分别约占中国氯化钾进口总量的29.8%、27.4%及23.1%。不仅如此，还有一个很重要的问题亦摆在如米高集团一样的钾肥生产商上——即生产钾肥的原材料“受制于人”。一直以来，氯化钾都是公司钾肥生产的主要原材料。报告期内，公司的氯化钾采购额占其采购总额的75.0%以上。在全球钾硷储量分布相对不均的背景下，公司的原材料主要依靠进口。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，加拿大、白罗斯及俄罗斯是世界上储量最高的三个国家，于2021年，该三个国家的钾硷储量占全球钾硷储量的60%以上。(数据来源：米高集团)此背景下，米高集团还面临着较大的全球氯化钾供应不确定性和氯化钾的采购价及采购成本波动的风险。智通财经APP观察到，自2021年以来，全球钾肥及钾肥原料供应受到各种因素的干扰。比如说，自2021年年中 以来针对白罗斯钾硷领域的制裁已导致白罗斯对全球的氯化钾供应中断。再或者是，于2022年2月开始的俄乌冲突以及由西方国家就此对俄罗斯实施的制裁措施进一步加剧全球氯化钾供应的不确定性。氯化钾供应的不确定性，无疑也加剧了米高集团原材料的“断供风险”——譬如，2021年12月，米高集团的其中一家来自白罗斯的主要供应商被列入相关名单，受此影响，公司不得不中断采购，转而增加向俄罗斯采购氯化钾。对此，该公司也在招股书中坦言称，“公司目前的氯化钾采购十分依赖其从俄罗斯所采购的氯化钾，若俄罗斯的钾肥相关市场遭受到任何进一步的制裁都将对公司业务产生重大不利影响”。而除了面临原材料“断供”的风险，米高集团还要面对不断上涨的原材料价格。2020财年至2022财年，公司销货成本分别为17.07亿元、18.31亿元及32.08亿元，其中，氯化钾的采购成本不断上升，分别占其直接材料采购总额的76.5%、77.7%及86.6%，每吨氯化钾单位销货成本已由2020财年的1827.1元增加至2022财年的2438.9元。若在外部原因的影响下，氯化钾价格进一步上涨，而公司无法将上涨转嫁给客户，公司利润率将会降低，且财务表现可能会受到重大不利影响。综上来看，不论是自身经营业绩来看，还是外在发展环境来看，米高集团这家“钾肥龙头”的投资价值并非外界所看到的那么靓丽。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000408":1,"000792":1,"09879":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
