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02-07

Deposit funds with Tiger Brokers

Find out more here:Deposit funds with Tiger Brokers Receive a S$1,000 welcome bonus!

Deposit funds with Tiger Brokers

02-07

🐍

01-20

Deposit funds with Tiger Brokers

Find out more here:Deposit funds with Tiger Brokers Receive a S$1,000 welcome bonus!

Deposit funds with Tiger Brokers

01-01

Deposit funds with Tiger Brokers

Find out more here:Deposit funds with Tiger Brokers Receive a S$1,000 welcome bonus!

Deposit funds with Tiger Brokers

2024-10-17

💯

2021-06-30

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Good stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?

2021-06-29

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Nayuki's tea lottery winning rate is 8%, and 40 lots are subscribed to secure one lot

2021-06-27

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International oil prices are "triumphing", and the market is waiting for next week's OPEC + meeting

2021-06-26

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Dalio's latest speech: The stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now

2021-06-25

Ok//@Kenwen: k

5 High-Octane Growth Stocks With 54% to 94% Upside, According to Wall Street

2021-06-25

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-18

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2021-06-15

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2021-06-07

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2021-06-05

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Microsoft's $16 billion acquisition of Nuance has received US antitrust approval

2021-06-04

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Biden changed his mouth! Without raising corporate taxes, the three major US stock indexes collectively rebounded

2021-05-30

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2021-05-28

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Retail investors are squeezing short again! What else are they buying besides GME and AMC

2021-05-26

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Onshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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bonus!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7da129f2111dbd507cec542284f117cc"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387830287995064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360838291132712,"gmtCreate":1729121107307,"gmtModify":1729121111597,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💯","listText":"💯","text":"💯","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51511b849efee7c36f7a3c8044b361c0","width":"1192","height":"2086"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360838291132712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153848156,"gmtCreate":1625019001775,"gmtModify":1703850238866,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":372,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153848156","repostId":"1133732318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133732318","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625018575,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133732318?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Good stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133732318","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"近期，A股市场持续分化，消费、医药、科技三大主线依旧向好，其他不少板块却震荡不已，尤其是里面一些龙头个股，明明是人人看好的好公司，却跌个不停，持续考验着投资者的信心。\n面对好股票持续下跌，越来越多的投","content":"<p>Recently, the A-share market has continued to differentiate. The three main lines of consumption, medicine, and technology are still improving, while many other sectors are fluctuating, especially some leading stocks, which are obviously good companies that everyone is optimistic about, but they keep falling. Continue to test investors' confidence.</p><p>Faced with the continuous decline of good stocks, more and more investors choose to cut their meat, because they really can't stand the inner suffering, hoping that after cutting their meat, it will be over. Psychologically, you may get temporary relief, but you can't hold good stocks. In the long run, investing and getting rich will become empty talk.</p><p><b>A-share industry differentiation</b></p><p>Strictly speaking, the bull market since 2019 is only a bull market for some industries, and many industries are in a bear market.</p><p><b>Taking the ten-year trend since 2010 as the measurement range, there are still many industries whose P/E quantile is lower than 10%, that is, the P/E level is lower than 90% of the trading days in the past ten years, and it is at the bottom of the valuation range; At the same time, there are also some industries whose P/E quantile reaches or even exceeds 90%, which is at the top of the valuation range.</b></p><p>On June 23, 2021, the P/E quantiles of the five industries of real estate (0.2%), architectural decoration (1.7%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (5.9%), media (9%), and non-bank finance (9.4%) were all lower than 10%. At the same time, the P/E quantiles of food and beverage (95.1%), leisure services (89.7%), and automobiles (89.7%) were around 90%, showing obvious polarization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5a5386dd588efa779e3aa097423dd6\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Putting aside A-shares, let's first discuss a question from the perspective of investment philosophy. As an investor, do you agree with the following view, that is, in the long run, buying and holding industries with low P/E will significantly perform better than buying and holding industries with high P/E.</p><p>As far as the idea theory is concerned, I believe many investors recognize it. Everyone believes that \"buying at an underestimate and holding it for a long time\" is the only way to make money through investment. This is why many people call themselves value investors.</p><p>But if we return to the reality of A-shares, the current P/E in real estate, architectural decoration, non-bank finance and other industries are at historical lows. Are you willing to buy now and hold it for a long time?</p><p>I believe<b>Once it returns to reality, many people will hesitate, because everyone can easily find a lot of reasons to look down on these industries.</b>For example, in the real estate and building decoration industries, investors will say that the big logic is broken due to factors such as housing for living and not speculation, and the aging population; Another example is the insurance industry. Everyone thinks that the downward trend of long-term interest rates suppresses the investment income of insurance companies, and the Internet makes the competition of insurance products transparent, which will lower the underwriting profits of insurance products, and so on.</p><p>Similarly, from the perspective of investment philosophy, everyone praises Buffett's \"fear when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful\" and deeply agrees with it; However, under the financial crisis in 2008, the stock market fell so hard that people were vomiting. When Buffett issued a document calling on everyone to buy stocks, few people responded, because in the specific market environment at that time, everyone could easily find a bunch of reasons to be bearish.</p><p>It can be seen that buying or holding stocks that are not favored by the market is never easy.</p><p><b>\"This time is different\"</b></p><p>Many investment gurus have said the same thing. The five most expensive words in investment are \"this time is different\".</p><p>The Dutch tulip bubble in the 17th century was the most influential recorded speculative bubble event in human history, and people learned many lessons from it, including that any bubble will burst; In the South China Sea bubble incident 100 years later, investors thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt; Until the Internet speculative bubble in the 1990s, investors still thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt.</p><p>This is true during the bubble period, and so is the panic phase.</p><p><b>Talking about ideas in terms of ideas, investors believe in mean reversion, believe that trees will not grow to the sky, believe that others are greedy and I am afraid, and others are afraid and I am greedy; But when returning to investment reality, you can always find various reasons to convince yourself that \"this time is different\" until you pay a huge price.</b>Three or five years later, everyone will forget the lesson again and continue the story of \"this time is different\", repeatedly.</p><p>Only a few people can jump out of this strange circle and maintain stable investment returns for a long time. These investors rely on believing in common sense and mean reversion. Especially at a specific point in time, do not dwell on the optimistic or pessimistic views of the mainstream of the market, but look at the problem from a higher level and a farther perspective, so as to move against the trend. As Peter Lynch put it;</p><p>\"Whenever I feel worried and disappointed about the current big picture, I try to focus on the'even bigger picture '. If you expect yourself to maintain confidence in the stock market, you must understand the concept of'bigger picture'. The'bigger picture 'is to look at the stock market from a longer and longer perspective.\" From this passage, it can be seen that Peter Lynch didn't convince himself from a rational or logical point of view that the current situation was not worthy of worry. On the contrary, he also thought that the situation was worrying and disappointing. In order not to be influenced by this emotion, he used a longer and farther perspective to convince himself not to be afraid.</p><p>In the final analysis,<b>When the market falls into panic, outstanding investors do not refute the market from facts, but broaden their eyes, defeat short-term rationality with long-term rationality, and defeat panic with simple common sense.</b></p><p>Going back to A-shares, if an investor holds insurance stocks, the current P/E of the insurance sector is at the bottom of ten years (0.9%). From the perspective of long-term mean reversion, now is the best time to hold firmly and wait for a reversal. However, if we focus on the fundamentals of the industry, many problems have not been answered in the short term, and there is no hope for the stock price to fall. It seems that \"the bottom of this valuation is different.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c593b63faa09c6219f83f6c2be0f54\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, it is precisely because it is often difficult to make choices purely from the level of logical analysis that investors need to rely on the investment system to assist in decision-making.</p><p><b>Jump out of a logical dead end</b></p><p><b>Any investment system contains many principles of mechanical operation. It is by relying on these principles that investors can jump out of the dead end of logic and grasp the bigger situation.</b></p><p>Under the value investment system, mean reversion is the core belief. When fundamentals and market sentiment are at odds with it, value investors should stand on the side of mean reversion, otherwise they will not be able to have the courage to hold against the trend.</p><p>For example, during the financial crisis in 2008, there was no hope in the fundamentals, and the stock market plummeted. At this time, value investors bought at the bottom, not seeing hope from the Fed's rescue policy, but based on the belief of \"mean reversion\". Mechanical buying. To put it bluntly, it is not because I have a lot of confidence, but purely because the stock market has fallen too badly, so I bought it.</p><p>Howard Marks once recalled this history. He had a product with leverage. At the worst of the crisis, he once raised supplementary funds from a pension institution. Howard started from the historical average and explained to investors the winning rate of capital injection at this time. As a result, he was repeatedly asked, \"What if the situation was worse?\"</p><p>Obviously, investors at this time no longer care about the historical average performance, and began to pursue 100% certainty in extreme market environments, giving up the most basic odds thinking. No one can guarantee 100% certainty. As a result, Howard failed to raise funds, so he had to supplement the funds out of his own pocket.</p><p>In hindsight, Howard made a lot of money, but he stressed that being correct afterwards did not mean that the decision was 100% correct beforehand. All he can grasp when making decisions is a firm belief in reversion to the mean. He firmly believes that buying at that time will have a very high winning rate.</p><p>For investors,<b>Under no circumstances can you go into a logical dead end because of the extravagance of 100% certainty. What really matters is to always be skeptical. When pessimism breeds greater pessimism, investors need to rely on skepticism to summon optimism; When optimistic situations breed greater optimism, it is also necessary to rely on skepticism to summon pessimism.</b></p><p>Similarly, investors in current A-share sectors such as insurance, when the sector P/E is close to the bottom of history, if they are still struggling with the short-term performance of fundamentals, isn't it unrealistic to pursue 100% certainty? What we really need to do at this time is to embrace skepticism, use skepticism to summon optimism, hold firmly with the belief that \"if we fall too much, we will inevitably rise back\", and even buy against the trend.</p><p><b>The market is sluggish, but it is a friend of value investing</b></p><p>No matter what genre, making money in stock trading is inseparable from four words: buy low and sell high. From the perspective of value investment, the fundamentals corresponding to buying low and selling high must be short-term pessimism and long-term optimism, so as to ensure that the price is low when buying in front and high when selling later. Therefore, the market is sluggish, which is a friend of value investing.</p><p><b>When the stock you hold keeps falling, check its fundamentals and repeatedly judge the medium and long-term development prospects. As long as the medium and long-term prospects are promising and the stock price falls, what falls is a buying opportunity.</b></p><p>So, when you are right, learn to persist and be more patient. Finally, we conclude with an example given by Philip A. Fisher:</p><p>\"We ask a man to look at the moon at 8 o'clock in the evening, and then tell him that with the passage of time, the moon will slide across the sky. He will gaze at the motion of the moon with great interest and concentration, but he can't feel it. So, he just watches it quietly. By 8:02, there was still no change in the position of the moon. After a minute, there was still no movement, and after another minute, everything remained the same, so he had to give up in disappointment. He didn't think it meaningless or worthless. But at 2 o'clock in the morning, when he looked up at the sky again, he found that the magical change that had made him impatient at 8: 04 pm finally appeared. \"</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Good stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGood stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏宁金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 10:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the A-share market has continued to differentiate. The three main lines of consumption, medicine, and technology are still improving, while many other sectors are fluctuating, especially some leading stocks, which are obviously good companies that everyone is optimistic about, but they keep falling. Continue to test investors' confidence.</p><p>Faced with the continuous decline of good stocks, more and more investors choose to cut their meat, because they really can't stand the inner suffering, hoping that after cutting their meat, it will be over. Psychologically, you may get temporary relief, but you can't hold good stocks. In the long run, investing and getting rich will become empty talk.</p><p><b>A-share industry differentiation</b></p><p>Strictly speaking, the bull market since 2019 is only a bull market for some industries, and many industries are in a bear market.</p><p><b>Taking the ten-year trend since 2010 as the measurement range, there are still many industries whose P/E quantile is lower than 10%, that is, the P/E level is lower than 90% of the trading days in the past ten years, and it is at the bottom of the valuation range; At the same time, there are also some industries whose P/E quantile reaches or even exceeds 90%, which is at the top of the valuation range.</b></p><p>On June 23, 2021, the P/E quantiles of the five industries of real estate (0.2%), architectural decoration (1.7%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (5.9%), media (9%), and non-bank finance (9.4%) were all lower than 10%. At the same time, the P/E quantiles of food and beverage (95.1%), leisure services (89.7%), and automobiles (89.7%) were around 90%, showing obvious polarization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5a5386dd588efa779e3aa097423dd6\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Putting aside A-shares, let's first discuss a question from the perspective of investment philosophy. As an investor, do you agree with the following view, that is, in the long run, buying and holding industries with low P/E will significantly perform better than buying and holding industries with high P/E.</p><p>As far as the idea theory is concerned, I believe many investors recognize it. Everyone believes that \"buying at an underestimate and holding it for a long time\" is the only way to make money through investment. This is why many people call themselves value investors.</p><p>But if we return to the reality of A-shares, the current P/E in real estate, architectural decoration, non-bank finance and other industries are at historical lows. Are you willing to buy now and hold it for a long time?</p><p>I believe<b>Once it returns to reality, many people will hesitate, because everyone can easily find a lot of reasons to look down on these industries.</b>For example, in the real estate and building decoration industries, investors will say that the big logic is broken due to factors such as housing for living and not speculation, and the aging population; Another example is the insurance industry. Everyone thinks that the downward trend of long-term interest rates suppresses the investment income of insurance companies, and the Internet makes the competition of insurance products transparent, which will lower the underwriting profits of insurance products, and so on.</p><p>Similarly, from the perspective of investment philosophy, everyone praises Buffett's \"fear when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful\" and deeply agrees with it; However, under the financial crisis in 2008, the stock market fell so hard that people were vomiting. When Buffett issued a document calling on everyone to buy stocks, few people responded, because in the specific market environment at that time, everyone could easily find a bunch of reasons to be bearish.</p><p>It can be seen that buying or holding stocks that are not favored by the market is never easy.</p><p><b>\"This time is different\"</b></p><p>Many investment gurus have said the same thing. The five most expensive words in investment are \"this time is different\".</p><p>The Dutch tulip bubble in the 17th century was the most influential recorded speculative bubble event in human history, and people learned many lessons from it, including that any bubble will burst; In the South China Sea bubble incident 100 years later, investors thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt; Until the Internet speculative bubble in the 1990s, investors still thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt.</p><p>This is true during the bubble period, and so is the panic phase.</p><p><b>Talking about ideas in terms of ideas, investors believe in mean reversion, believe that trees will not grow to the sky, believe that others are greedy and I am afraid, and others are afraid and I am greedy; But when returning to investment reality, you can always find various reasons to convince yourself that \"this time is different\" until you pay a huge price.</b>Three or five years later, everyone will forget the lesson again and continue the story of \"this time is different\", repeatedly.</p><p>Only a few people can jump out of this strange circle and maintain stable investment returns for a long time. These investors rely on believing in common sense and mean reversion. Especially at a specific point in time, do not dwell on the optimistic or pessimistic views of the mainstream of the market, but look at the problem from a higher level and a farther perspective, so as to move against the trend. As Peter Lynch put it;</p><p>\"Whenever I feel worried and disappointed about the current big picture, I try to focus on the'even bigger picture '. If you expect yourself to maintain confidence in the stock market, you must understand the concept of'bigger picture'. The'bigger picture 'is to look at the stock market from a longer and longer perspective.\" From this passage, it can be seen that Peter Lynch didn't convince himself from a rational or logical point of view that the current situation was not worthy of worry. On the contrary, he also thought that the situation was worrying and disappointing. In order not to be influenced by this emotion, he used a longer and farther perspective to convince himself not to be afraid.</p><p>In the final analysis,<b>When the market falls into panic, outstanding investors do not refute the market from facts, but broaden their eyes, defeat short-term rationality with long-term rationality, and defeat panic with simple common sense.</b></p><p>Going back to A-shares, if an investor holds insurance stocks, the current P/E of the insurance sector is at the bottom of ten years (0.9%). From the perspective of long-term mean reversion, now is the best time to hold firmly and wait for a reversal. However, if we focus on the fundamentals of the industry, many problems have not been answered in the short term, and there is no hope for the stock price to fall. It seems that \"the bottom of this valuation is different.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c593b63faa09c6219f83f6c2be0f54\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, it is precisely because it is often difficult to make choices purely from the level of logical analysis that investors need to rely on the investment system to assist in decision-making.</p><p><b>Jump out of a logical dead end</b></p><p><b>Any investment system contains many principles of mechanical operation. It is by relying on these principles that investors can jump out of the dead end of logic and grasp the bigger situation.</b></p><p>Under the value investment system, mean reversion is the core belief. When fundamentals and market sentiment are at odds with it, value investors should stand on the side of mean reversion, otherwise they will not be able to have the courage to hold against the trend.</p><p>For example, during the financial crisis in 2008, there was no hope in the fundamentals, and the stock market plummeted. At this time, value investors bought at the bottom, not seeing hope from the Fed's rescue policy, but based on the belief of \"mean reversion\". Mechanical buying. To put it bluntly, it is not because I have a lot of confidence, but purely because the stock market has fallen too badly, so I bought it.</p><p>Howard Marks once recalled this history. He had a product with leverage. At the worst of the crisis, he once raised supplementary funds from a pension institution. Howard started from the historical average and explained to investors the winning rate of capital injection at this time. As a result, he was repeatedly asked, \"What if the situation was worse?\"</p><p>Obviously, investors at this time no longer care about the historical average performance, and began to pursue 100% certainty in extreme market environments, giving up the most basic odds thinking. No one can guarantee 100% certainty. As a result, Howard failed to raise funds, so he had to supplement the funds out of his own pocket.</p><p>In hindsight, Howard made a lot of money, but he stressed that being correct afterwards did not mean that the decision was 100% correct beforehand. All he can grasp when making decisions is a firm belief in reversion to the mean. He firmly believes that buying at that time will have a very high winning rate.</p><p>For investors,<b>Under no circumstances can you go into a logical dead end because of the extravagance of 100% certainty. What really matters is to always be skeptical. When pessimism breeds greater pessimism, investors need to rely on skepticism to summon optimism; When optimistic situations breed greater optimism, it is also necessary to rely on skepticism to summon pessimism.</b></p><p>Similarly, investors in current A-share sectors such as insurance, when the sector P/E is close to the bottom of history, if they are still struggling with the short-term performance of fundamentals, isn't it unrealistic to pursue 100% certainty? What we really need to do at this time is to embrace skepticism, use skepticism to summon optimism, hold firmly with the belief that \"if we fall too much, we will inevitably rise back\", and even buy against the trend.</p><p><b>The market is sluggish, but it is a friend of value investing</b></p><p>No matter what genre, making money in stock trading is inseparable from four words: buy low and sell high. From the perspective of value investment, the fundamentals corresponding to buying low and selling high must be short-term pessimism and long-term optimism, so as to ensure that the price is low when buying in front and high when selling later. Therefore, the market is sluggish, which is a friend of value investing.</p><p><b>When the stock you hold keeps falling, check its fundamentals and repeatedly judge the medium and long-term development prospects. As long as the medium and long-term prospects are promising and the stock price falls, what falls is a buying opportunity.</b></p><p>So, when you are right, learn to persist and be more patient. Finally, we conclude with an example given by Philip A. Fisher:</p><p>\"We ask a man to look at the moon at 8 o'clock in the evening, and then tell him that with the passage of time, the moon will slide across the sky. He will gaze at the motion of the moon with great interest and concentration, but he can't feel it. So, he just watches it quietly. By 8:02, there was still no change in the position of the moon. After a minute, there was still no movement, and after another minute, everything remained the same, so he had to give up in disappointment. He didn't think it meaningless or worthless. But at 2 o'clock in the morning, when he looked up at the sky again, he found that the magical change that had made him impatient at 8: 04 pm finally appeared. \"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2YozTtjsIBm5X9KQ3AmlFg\">苏宁金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2YozTtjsIBm5X9KQ3AmlFg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133732318","content_text":"近期，A股市场持续分化，消费、医药、科技三大主线依旧向好，其他不少板块却震荡不已，尤其是里面一些龙头个股，明明是人人看好的好公司，却跌个不停，持续考验着投资者的信心。\n面对好股票持续下跌，越来越多的投资者选择割肉，因为实在受不了内心煎熬，希望割肉之后一了百了。心理上也许得到一时的解脱，但好股票拿不住，长此以往，投资致富就成了一句空话。\nA股行业大分化\n严格意义上说，2019年以来的牛市，仅是部分行业的牛市，还有很多行业处于熊市行情中。\n以2010年以来的十年走势为计量区间，当前仍有不少行业市盈率的分位值低于10%，即市盈率水平低于十年来90%的交易日，处于估值区间底部；同时，也有一些行业市盈率分位值达到甚至超过90%，处于估值区间顶部。\n2021年6月23日，房地产（0.2%）、建筑装饰（1.7%）、农林牧渔（5.9%）、传媒（9%）、非银金融（9.4%）五个行业的市盈率分位值均低于10%，同时食品饮料（95.1%）、休闲服务（89.7%）、汽车（89.7%）三个行业的市盈率分位值处在90%左右，出现明显的两极分化。\n\n把A股放一边，我们先从投资理念上探讨一个问题，作为投资者，你是否认可以下观点，即：长期来看，买入并持有低市盈率的行业，业绩表现会明显超过买入并持有市盈率处于高位的行业。\n就理念论理念，我相信很多投资者都是认可的，大家都相信“低估买入并长期持有”是投资赚钱的不二法门，这也是很多人自称价值投资者的原因。\n但若我们回归A股现实，当前房地产、建筑装饰、非银金融等行业的市盈率处于历史低位，你是否愿意现在买入并长期持有呢？\n我相信一旦回归现实，很多人会犹豫起来，因为大家能轻易找出一大堆看衰这些行业的理由。比如房地产和建筑装饰业，投资者会说，受房住不炒、人口老龄化等因素影响，大逻辑坏掉了；再比如保险业，大家又认为，长期利率下行压制保险公司投资收益，互联网使保险产品竞争透明化，会拉低保险产品的承保利润，等等。\n同样，从投资理念上，大家对巴菲特的“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪”大加赞赏，深以为然；但2008年金融危机之下，股市跌得令人发吐，巴菲特发文号召大家买入股票时，却响应者寥寥，因为具体到当时的市场环境，大家能轻易找到一堆看空的理由。\n可见，买入或持有不被市场看好的股票，从来就不是一件容易的事。\n“这次不一样”\n很多投资大师说过同样的话，投资中最昂贵的五个字就是“这次不一样”。\n17世纪的荷兰郁金香泡沫是人类历史上有记载的最具影响力的投机泡沫事件，人们从中学到了很多教训，包括任何泡沫都会破灭；100年之后的南海泡沫事件中，投资者认为“这次不一样”，结果泡沫照样破灭，大批投资者破产；一直到上世纪90年代的互联网投机泡沫，投资者依旧认为“这次不一样”，结果依旧是泡沫破灭，大批投资者破产。\n泡沫期如此，恐慌阶段也是如此。\n就理念谈理念，投资者相信均值回归，相信树不会长到天上，相信别人贪婪我恐惧、别人恐惧我贪婪；但回到投资现实时，总是能找到各种理由来说服自己，相信“这次不一样”，直至付出巨大代价。三五年后，大家又会忘记教训，继续着“这次不一样”的故事，周而复始。\n只有少数人能跳出这个怪圈，得以长期保持稳健的投资收益，这些投资者依靠的就是相信常识、相信均值回归。尤其在特定的时间点，不纠结于市场主流的乐观或悲观见解，而是从更高的层面、更远的视角来看问题，做到逆势而动。正如彼得·林奇所说：\n\n “每当我对目前的大局（big picture）感到忧虑和失望时，我就会努力让自己关注于‘更大的大局’（even bigger picture）。如果你期望自己能够对股市保持信心的话，你就一定要了解‘更大的大局’这个概念。‘更大的大局’是从更长更远的眼光来看股市。”\n\n从这段话里可以看出，彼得·林奇并非从理性或逻辑的角度说服自己当前局势不值得忧虑，相反，他也认为局面令人感到忧虑和失望，只是为不受这种情绪影响，他用更长更远的视角来说服自己不恐惧。\n归根结底，当市场陷入恐慌情绪时，卓越的投资者们并非从事实上去驳倒市场，而是把眼光拉长，用长期理性战胜短期理性，用简单常识战胜恐慌情绪。\n回到A股，如果一个投资者持有保险股，当前保险板块市盈率处于十年来历史底部（0.9%）。站在长期均值回归的视角，现在正是坚定持有、等待反转的最佳时点，但如果着眼于行业基本面，很多难题短期内还未见答案，股价阴跌还看不到希望，似乎“这次的估值底部不一样”。\n\n事实上，正是因为很多时候纯粹从逻辑分析层面不好抉择，投资者才需要依靠投资体系辅助决策。\n跳出逻辑死胡同\n任何一个投资体系，都含有很多机械操作的原则，正是依靠这些原则，投资者才得以从逻辑的死胡同中跳脱出来，把握更大的大局。\n在价值投资体系下，均值回归是最核心的信念，当基本面、市场情绪与之相左时，价值投资者应站在均值回归这一边，否则便不可能拥有逆势持有的勇气。\n比如2008年金融危机时，基本面看不到希望，股市更是一泻千里，此时的价值投资者抄底买入，并非从美联储救市政策中看到了希望，而是基于“均值回归”信念进行的机械式买入。说白了，并非因为本身产生了多大的信心，纯粹是因为股市跌得太惨了，所以出手买入。\n霍华德·马克斯曾回忆这段历史，他有一只产品带有杠杆，危机最严重的时候，他曾经向一家养老金机构募集补充资金。霍华德从历史均值出发，向投资者解释此时注资的胜率，结果被一再追问“如果情况更糟一些呢”。\n显然，此时的投资者已不在乎历史平均表现，在极端市场环境下开始追求100%的确定性，放弃了最基本的赔率思维。没有人能保证100%的确定性，结果霍华德募资失败，只好自掏腰包补充资金。\n事后来看，霍华德赚得盘满钵满，但他却强调，事后正确不代表事前决策100%地正确。他决策时所能把握的，只是对均值回归的坚定信念，他坚信当时买入会有极高的胜率。\n对投资者而言，任何情况下都不能因奢求100%的确定性而走入逻辑的死胡同，真正重要的是始终保持怀疑主义。当悲观情绪滋生更大的悲观情绪时，投资者需依靠怀疑主义来召唤乐观主义；当乐观情况滋生更大的乐观情绪时，也需要依靠怀疑主义来召唤悲观主义。\n同样，当前A股诸如保险等板块的投资者，在板块市盈率接近历史底部时，若还在纠结基本面的短期表现，何尝不是不切实际地追求100%的确定性呢。此时真正要做的是拥抱怀疑主义，用怀疑主义来召唤乐观主义，抱着“跌多了必然涨回去”的信念坚定持有，甚至逆势买入。\n行情低迷，是价值投资的朋友\n无论什么流派，炒股赚钱都离不开四个字：低买高卖。站在价值投资的角度看，低买高卖对应的基本面必然是短期悲观、长期看好，这样才能确保前面买入时价格低，后面卖出时价格高。所以，行情低迷，是价值投资的朋友。\n当你持有的股票跌跌不休时，检查其基本面，反复研判其中长期发展前景，只要中长期前景看好，股价下跌，跌出来的正是买入机会。\n所以，当你是对的时候，要学会坚持，多点耐心。最后，我们用菲利普·A·费雪举过的一个例子作为结束：\n\n “我们让一个人在晚上8时的时候去看看月亮，然后告诉他，随着时间的流逝，月亮会滑过天空。他会兴味盎然、聚精会神地去凝视月亮的运动，但却无法感受到月亮的运动。于是，他就这样凝神静气地看下去。\n\n\n 到了8时零2分，仍然看不到月亮的位置有什么变化。过了1分钟，还是没有任何动静，又过了1分钟，一切依然如故，于是他只好失望地放弃。\n\n\n 他觉得这种事没有任何意义，也没有任何价值。\n\n\n 但到了凌晨2时，再次仰望天空的他，却发现晚上8时零4分曾经让他等得不耐烦的神奇变化终于出现了。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574500206068120","authorIdStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Now market sell covered call and sell put every week better [LOL] slowly slowly gain","text":"Now market sell covered call and sell put every week better [LOL] slowly slowly gain","html":"Now market sell covered call and sell put every week better [LOL] slowly slowly gain"},{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574500206068120","authorIdStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Short those who have gone through a lot of times, don't guess the roof, look at the candle before going to the air, or fall to the force position. Stop putting it on the previous one, or, every time I make a short, I make a backhand long, and I always make a long list of sohai haha","text":"Short those who have gone through a lot of times, don't guess the roof, look at the candle before going to the air, or fall to the force position. Stop putting it on the previous one, or, every time I make a short, I make a backhand long, and I always make a long list of sohai haha","html":"Short those who have gone through a lot of times, don't guess the roof, look at the candle before going to the air, or fall to the force position. Stop putting it on the previous one, or, every time I make a short, I make a backhand long, and I always make a long list of sohai haha"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150773864,"gmtCreate":1624929468758,"gmtModify":1703848127385,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150773864","repostId":"1104770632","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104770632","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624927163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104770632?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 08:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Nayuki's tea lottery winning rate is 8%, and 40 lots are subscribed to secure one lot","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104770632","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月29日消息，本周二奈雪的茶发布公告，公司发行2.57亿股股份，每股定价19.8港元，每手500股，预期将于6月30日上市。分配结果：\n甲组每手500股，一手中签率8%，认购40手稳中一手。\n乙组头","content":"<p>News on June 29, this Tuesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's tea</a>According to the announcement, the company issued 257 million shares, priced at HK $19.8 per share, with 500 shares per lot, and is expected to be listed on June 30.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af239b570522de01079011982ac9576\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Distribution result:</b></p><p>Group A has 500 shares per lot, and the winning rate of one lot is 8%. If you subscribe for 40 lots, you will secure one lot.</p><p>The head of Group B is 300,000 shares (600 lots), and 3,000 shares (6 lots) are allocated.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1861f115ef2892bc51ce6b5f05ff7b8\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f27f80d6ce9a1fdc75d8516bf6b6ffe\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the public offering stage, Nayuki's tea was subscribed 432.03 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 129 million shares, accounting for 50% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised). A total of 642033 valid applications were received.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was significantly oversubscribed, and the final number of offer shares was 129 million shares (excluding over-allocation shares), equivalent to 50% of the total number of offer shares.</p><p>In terms of fund-raising purposes, the company intends to use the net proceeds received from the global offering estimated to be approximately HK $4.84 billion (assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised) for the following purposes: approximately 70.0% will be used to expand the tea shop network in the next three years and increase its market penetration; Approximately 10.0% will be used in the next three years to further improve overall operations by strengthening technical capabilities to improve operational efficiency; About 10.0% will be used to improve supply chain capabilities in the next three years to support the company's scale expansion; Approximately 10.0% will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p>It is reported that Naixue's tea shop operated by the company is China's leading high-end ready-made tea chain store, focusing on providing ready-made tea drinks. According to CIC, Nayuki's tea is the second largest teahouse brand in China's high-end ready-made teahouse market in terms of total retail consumption in 2020, with a market share of 18.9%. In terms of total retail consumption in 2020, Nayuki's tea is the seventh largest teahouse brand in China's overall ready-made teahouse industry, with a market share of 3.9%.</p><p>In order to enhance the convenience and personalized experience of Nayuki's tea to customers, the company launched Nayuki's tea membership system and Nayuki's tea application, and achieved full integration with the company's Nayuki's tea shop network. The company's Nayuki tea membership system has about 34.7 million registered members. In 2020, approximately 49.0% of Nayuki's total tea orders came from Nayuki's tea members.</p><p>The number of Nayuki's teahouses grew rapidly from 44 as of December 31, 2017 to 491 as of December 31, 2020, and further to 562 as of the Latest Practicable Date. The revenue generated by the company's Nayuki teahouse increased from RMB 910 million in 2018 to RMB 2.292 billion in 2019, and further increased to RMB 2.871 billion in 2020.</p><p>In addition, in terms of same stores in 2018 and 2019, Nayuki's tea same store profit margin remained stable in 2018 and 2019, at 24.9% and 25.3%, respectively. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, in terms of same stores in 2019 and 2020, Nayuki's tea same store profit margin was 13.5% in 2020, compared to 21.0% in 2019.</p><p>Throughout the track record period, the company's profitability continued to improve, with total revenue increasing from 1.087 billion yuan in 2018 to 3.057 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 67.7% from 2018 to 2020; The adjusted net loss decreased significantly from RMB 56.58 million in 2018 to RMB 11.735 million in 2019, and further reversed to an adjusted net profit of RMB 16.643 million in 2020.</p><p>In the first nine months of 2020, the company recorded revenue of 2.115 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 4.484 million yuan. Under the influence of the epidemic, the domestic food industry has been greatly impacted. The company's adjusted net profit has narrowed under pressure, but its revenue still maintains a strong growth momentum.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nayuki's tea lottery winning rate is 8%, and 40 lots are subscribed to secure one lot</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNayuki's tea lottery winning rate is 8%, and 40 lots are subscribed to secure one lot\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 08:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>News on June 29, this Tuesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's tea</a>According to the announcement, the company issued 257 million shares, priced at HK $19.8 per share, with 500 shares per lot, and is expected to be listed on June 30.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af239b570522de01079011982ac9576\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Distribution result:</b></p><p>Group A has 500 shares per lot, and the winning rate of one lot is 8%. If you subscribe for 40 lots, you will secure one lot.</p><p>The head of Group B is 300,000 shares (600 lots), and 3,000 shares (6 lots) are allocated.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1861f115ef2892bc51ce6b5f05ff7b8\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f27f80d6ce9a1fdc75d8516bf6b6ffe\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the public offering stage, Nayuki's tea was subscribed 432.03 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 129 million shares, accounting for 50% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised). A total of 642033 valid applications were received.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was significantly oversubscribed, and the final number of offer shares was 129 million shares (excluding over-allocation shares), equivalent to 50% of the total number of offer shares.</p><p>In terms of fund-raising purposes, the company intends to use the net proceeds received from the global offering estimated to be approximately HK $4.84 billion (assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised) for the following purposes: approximately 70.0% will be used to expand the tea shop network in the next three years and increase its market penetration; Approximately 10.0% will be used in the next three years to further improve overall operations by strengthening technical capabilities to improve operational efficiency; About 10.0% will be used to improve supply chain capabilities in the next three years to support the company's scale expansion; Approximately 10.0% will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p>It is reported that Naixue's tea shop operated by the company is China's leading high-end ready-made tea chain store, focusing on providing ready-made tea drinks. According to CIC, Nayuki's tea is the second largest teahouse brand in China's high-end ready-made teahouse market in terms of total retail consumption in 2020, with a market share of 18.9%. In terms of total retail consumption in 2020, Nayuki's tea is the seventh largest teahouse brand in China's overall ready-made teahouse industry, with a market share of 3.9%.</p><p>In order to enhance the convenience and personalized experience of Nayuki's tea to customers, the company launched Nayuki's tea membership system and Nayuki's tea application, and achieved full integration with the company's Nayuki's tea shop network. The company's Nayuki tea membership system has about 34.7 million registered members. In 2020, approximately 49.0% of Nayuki's total tea orders came from Nayuki's tea members.</p><p>The number of Nayuki's teahouses grew rapidly from 44 as of December 31, 2017 to 491 as of December 31, 2020, and further to 562 as of the Latest Practicable Date. The revenue generated by the company's Nayuki teahouse increased from RMB 910 million in 2018 to RMB 2.292 billion in 2019, and further increased to RMB 2.871 billion in 2020.</p><p>In addition, in terms of same stores in 2018 and 2019, Nayuki's tea same store profit margin remained stable in 2018 and 2019, at 24.9% and 25.3%, respectively. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, in terms of same stores in 2019 and 2020, Nayuki's tea same store profit margin was 13.5% in 2020, compared to 21.0% in 2019.</p><p>Throughout the track record period, the company's profitability continued to improve, with total revenue increasing from 1.087 billion yuan in 2018 to 3.057 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 67.7% from 2018 to 2020; The adjusted net loss decreased significantly from RMB 56.58 million in 2018 to RMB 11.735 million in 2019, and further reversed to an adjusted net profit of RMB 16.643 million in 2020.</p><p>In the first nine months of 2020, the company recorded revenue of 2.115 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 4.484 million yuan. Under the influence of the epidemic, the domestic food industry has been greatly impacted. The company's adjusted net profit has narrowed under pressure, but its revenue still maintains a strong growth momentum.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/969153dc5674369c3b376e33d2fc3976","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104770632","content_text":"6月29日消息，本周二奈雪的茶发布公告，公司发行2.57亿股股份，每股定价19.8港元，每手500股，预期将于6月30日上市。分配结果：\n甲组每手500股，一手中签率8%，认购40手稳中一手。\n乙组头为30万股（600手），获配3000股（6手）。公开发售阶段奈雪的茶获432.03倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为1.29亿股，占发售股份总数的50%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获642033份有效申请。\n此外，国际发售获大幅超额认购，发售股份最终数目为1.29亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的50%。\n筹资用途方面，公司拟将收取的全球发售所得款项净额估计约48.4亿港元（假设超额配股权并无获行使）用于以下用途：约70.0%将在未来三年用于扩张茶饮店网络并提高其市场渗透率；约10.0%将在未来三年用于通过强化技术能力，进一步提升整体运营，以提升运营效率；约10.0%将在未来三年用于提升供应链能力，以支持公司的规模扩张；约10.0%将用作营运资金及作一般企业用途。\n据悉，公司所经营的奈雪的茶茶饮店是中国领先的高端现制茶饮连锁店，专注于提供现制茶饮。根据灼识谘询的资料，按2020年零售消费总值计，奈雪的茶在中国高端现制茶饮店市场中为第二大茶饮店品牌，市场份额为18.9%。按2020年零售消费总值计，奈雪的茶在中国整体现制茶饮店行业中为第七大茶饮店品牌，市场份额为3.9%。\n为提升奈雪的茶对客户的便利性及个性化体验，公司推出奈雪的茶会员体系及奈雪的茶应用程序，并实现与公司奈雪的茶茶饮店网络的全面整合。公司的奈雪的茶会员体系有注册会员约3470万名。于2020年，奈雪的茶订单总数中约49.0%来自奈雪的茶会员。\n奈雪的茶茶饮店数量由截至2017年12月31日的44间迅速增长至截至2020年12月31日的491间，并于截至最后实际可行日期进一步增至562间。公司的奈雪的茶茶饮店所产生的收益由2018年的人民币9.1亿元增至2019年的人民币22.92亿元，并进一步增至2020年的人民币28.71亿元。\n此外，就2018年及2019年的同店而言，奈雪的茶同店利润率于2018年及2019年维持稳定，分别为24.9%及25.3%。由于COVID-19爆发的影响，就2019年及2020年的同店而言，奈雪的茶同店利润率于2020年为13.5%，而2019年为21.0%。\n于整个往绩记录期间，公司的盈利能力不断提升，总营收由2018年的10.87亿元提升至2020年的30.57亿元人民币，2018~2020年的复合年增长率达67.7%；经调整净亏损由2018年的人民币5658万元大幅减少至2019年的人民币1173.5万元，并进一步扭转为2020年的经调整净利润1664.3万元人民币。\n2020年前9个月，公司录得收入21.15亿元，经调整净利润448.4万元。在疫情影响下，国内食品行业受到较大冲击，公司经调整净利润承压收窄，但营收仍保持强劲增长势头。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574500206068120","authorIdStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Sohai one day up one day down","text":"Sohai one day up one day down","html":"Sohai one day up one day down"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124121799,"gmtCreate":1624754683111,"gmtModify":1703844391717,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124121799","repostId":"1181161116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181161116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754107,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181161116?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"International oil prices are \"triumphing\", and the market is waiting for next week's OPEC + meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181161116","media":"期货日报","summary":"本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货","content":"<p><div>This week, affected by the continued rise in international oil prices, energy and chemical futures varieties have strengthened significantly, but the trends of various varieties among sectors have diverged. Among them, LPG and asphalt futures are on the stronger side. \"Compared with crude oil, asphalt has been in a weak state this year, mainly due to major problems with its own fundamentals.\" Zhaojin Futures analyst Yu Yusen told a reporter from Futures Daily that the operating rate of the asphalt industry has not exceeded last year, or even lower than the same period in previous years, demand has not been started, and inventories are approaching historical highs in the past eight years. According to Yu Yusen, it is still in the rainy season, the actual demand for asphalt is weak, and the inventory is also in the fourth quarter...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"qihuoribao","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>International oil prices are \"triumphing\", and the market is waiting for next week's OPEC + meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInternational oil prices are \"triumphing\", and the market is waiting for next week's OPEC + meeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期货日报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>This week, affected by the continued rise in international oil prices, energy and chemical futures varieties have strengthened significantly, but the trends of various varieties among sectors have diverged. Among them, LPG and asphalt futures are on the stronger side. \"Compared with crude oil, asphalt has been in a weak state this year, mainly due to major problems with its own fundamentals.\" Zhaojin Futures analyst Yu Yusen told a reporter from Futures Daily that the operating rate of the asphalt industry has not exceeded last year, or even lower than the same period in previous years, demand has not been started, and inventories are approaching historical highs in the past eight years. According to Yu Yusen, it is still in the rainy season, the actual demand for asphalt is weak, and the inventory is also in the fourth quarter...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">期货日报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181161116","content_text":"本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货分析师于竼森告诉期货日报记者，沥青行业的开工率并没有超越去年，甚至比往年同期还要偏低，需求一直未能启动，且库存逼近近8年来的历史高位。\n在于竼森看来，当前仍处于雨季，沥青的实际需求偏弱，库存也在4季度前很难出现下滑，因此沥青期货本周的强势上涨，更多是受油价上涨的影响，成本提高推动沥青价格上涨。\n此外，消息面的利好来自于市场关于国家针对地炼企业原油配额缩减问题的解读。部分机构认为，国家今年1—2批次进口原油配额相对去年有了明显的缩量，叠加前期针对稀释沥青的加税问题，会造成地炼企业原材料价格上涨及原材料紧缺，从而导致后期的沥青产量会有所下滑。那么在旺季来临之后，沥青可能会面临比较快速的去库存，而不是前期预期的全年都处于高库存之下。\n尽管沥青本周表现极为强势，远强于其他油品。但有业内人士认为沥青盘面明显超涨，后期走势可能相对于其他油品更弱。\n过去一周，随着市场逐步认识到“稀释沥青”可能长期短缺的问题，对于远期沥青炼厂供应产生担忧，市场看多情绪加重。但在国泰君安期货分析师黄柳楠看来，短期交易视角不应过分聚焦远期市场。“当前山东地区现货对于沥青期货主力合约2109合约的贴水已经超过300元/吨，无风险套利窗口大幅敞开，且沥青与高、低硫燃料油的价差也逼近今年以来的高位，估值已经偏高。”\n“从供需面看，当前绝对库存依旧处于历史最高位，未来2个月不太可能出现缺货的情况，因此沥青利润修复的驱动并不强。”黄柳楠表示，由于今年国内信用扩张停滞，基建工程减少，未来2个月需求端可能不会有逆季节性的扩张，近两日盘面超涨的溢价可能在未来逐步回吐。“考虑到油价下半年重心上移的确定性，沥青价格未来挑战4000元/吨的可能性依旧较大，只是短期背离油价的强势难以持续。”\n值得注意的是，本周LPG期货价格连创新高。东证期货衍生品研究院大宗商品研究主管金晓告诉期货日报记者，一方面，受益于油价持续上涨，相应抬升了LPG期价中枢。另一方面，海外LPG掉期价格在沙特传出出口收紧的消息刺激下一路狂奔。“即将出台的7月沙特CP丙烷价格预计会超过620美元/吨，较上月大涨近100美元/吨，未来进口成本增加的预期是近期国内期价上行的重要驱动。”\nLPG消费本身有一定的季节性，随着主力合约从淡季逐渐转入旺季，市场对旺季抱有期待，乐观情绪在市场中占主导。\n在金晓看来，LPG基本面预期较好。从最新的气象预测来看今年秋冬大概率是中性状态，在12月前后有略超50%的概率转为拉尼娜，未来随着天气转冷燃料消费将有正常的季节性回升。在化工原料需求上，今年全年国内预计有4套PDH新装置投产，此外还有一些可灵活切换原料的乙烯裂解新装置未来可以消化前端炼能扩张带来的LPG国产气增量。“总体上，国内需求增速快于供给增速。这部分需求缺口会对应到国内的进口气增量，是全球需求增量的重要组成部分，亚洲地区LPG价格受到支撑，对国内也意味着进口成本相比去年同期易涨难跌。”\n不过，目前LPG基本面国内外分化的格局短期内仍将持续。据国投安信期货分析师李祖智介绍，国内市场受广州疫情和国产气外放压力增长的影响，价格已显疲态，终端销售压力不断放大。但国际市场方面，美国库存维持低位，而中东短期内增产预期仍不明朗，年内主要潜在供给增量的伊朗也因谈判节奏放缓而有所推迟，国际市场紧平衡格局下的推高动力仍然存在。“在市场格局暂无拐点迹象，同时原油强势的背景下，盘面仍有一定上涨空间。”\n“LPG期价从半年度的时间维度上我们觉得上方仍有空间但过程可能会波折。”金晓认为，由于这一轮海外价格是偏事件驱动的推涨，目前LPG期价位置相对高位，短期要防范沙特消息反转供给边际宽松的回调风险。未来供需基本面环比改善预期可能是直到旺季前半段市场的主要交易逻辑。\n业内人士建议投资者关注下周即将举行的OPEC+会议，这是当前能化市场当前关注的焦点。如果增产幅度超出预期，油价回调的可能性依旧存在，也将一定程度上影响能化板块其他品种的价格走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DUG":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574500206068120","authorIdStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"The current market is really contradictory. Too many people feel guilty and want to sell. If they fall, they want to take a long-term line and can't do it. [LOL], [LOL] and [LOL]","text":"The current market is really contradictory. Too many people feel guilty and want to sell. If they fall, they want to take a long-term line and can't do it. [LOL], [LOL] and [LOL]","html":"The current market is really contradictory. Too many people feel guilty and want to sell. If they fall, they want to take a long-term line and can't do it. [LOL], [LOL] and [LOL]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125696873,"gmtCreate":1624670526592,"gmtModify":1703843191910,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125696873","repostId":"1186578125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186578125","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624879503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186578125?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 19:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Dalio's latest speech: The stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186578125","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，","content":"<p>Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, sent two tweets on June 24th, introducing his six indicators for measuring bubbles, and released a 10-minute video to explain his views on the current stock market bubble.</p><p>In this video explaining the stock bubble at the request of the Robin Hood Foundation, Dalio said that while indicators show that some stocks are \"in a bubble\" right now, the stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed46d81d71867f2d1eb8b3b9ad012779\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"By bubble I mean unsustainable high prices, and I measure it with six metrics,\" Dalio wrote in a tweet, noting that investors need to pay attention to signs such as buyer leverage levels and the number of new buyers.</p><p>In fact, as early as mid-May, Dario shared his research on the stock market bubble in WeChat official account, detailing these six systematic \"bubble indicators\", including price, bullish sentiment, leverage, etc.:</p><p>1. How high is the price compared to traditional measures?</p><p>2. Do prices reflect unsustainable conditions?</p><p>3. How many new buyers (that is, people who were not in the market before) entered the market?</p><p>4. How common is bullish sentiment?</p><p>5. Does trading rely on the support of high leverage?</p><p>6. Are buyers excessively engaging in forward transactions (such as building inventory, signing forward agreements, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves from future price increases?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89447f632ae50e578dd9ebcd007795e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here's the full text of this video talk, titled Is the stock market currently in a bubble?:</p><p>Hello everyone, it's a pleasure to be here on behalf of all those who have been helped by Robin Hood (Foundation).</p><p>You know, know Robin Hood because I knew Paul Tudor Jones, when Robin Hood was a glimmer in his eye, and he would play basketball with the kids in Bedford-Stuyvincent neighborhood (Bed Stuy), and I was lucky to see him and all the staff at the Robin Hood Fund, in a very personal and efficient way to help alleviate poverty in America, and to be a part of it. Everything you've done is great, so I just want to thank you for everything you've done and tell you how happy I am to be here and do my modest part.</p><p>I was asked to talk about bubbles, whether the market, the stock market is in a bubble, and what kind of bubble. I just want to give you some thoughts on this issue, I only have about 10 minutes. So I want to speak quickly, a few years ago, I started thinking: What is a bubble? What do I mean by bubble when we are in it? Because in my 50 years of investing, I have seen a lot of bubbles.</p><p>There are six things in my mind that I basically think will cause a bubble, and I'll list them one by one. Now, look at them so you know what I'm talking about.</p><p>First of all, you know, how high our prices are relative to traditional price measures is a consideration. For example, you know our PSI or yields and things like that, that's a consideration, but that's not what I call a bubble.</p><p>For example, there may be a phenomenon of high price and low return, and this situation can last for a long time, but this does not mean that the bubble will burst, it is just one of the components.</p><p>Second, the price reflects unsustainable conditions, which refers to the nature of the buyer, who is buying and how to buy. Unsustainable conditions will produce price adjustments or declines, and then the third speculative factor appears-New buyers in the market are attracted.</p><p>You know, it's like a cocktail party, and some people who never attend show up, that is, invested in certain assets, it could be tech stocks, it could be real estate, but anyway, everybody thinks, not holding those things makes them feel stupid, and that kind of thing.</p><p>The fifth is the large purchase of forward \"contracts\", such as when someone bought an apartment they didn't know about because they thought it would go up, or using the age of large-scale commodity trading as an example. I would watch people who use commodities and they buy a lot of forward contracts. In other words, buy inventory to protect yourself from rising prices.</p><p>So when they leave the market-as we've seen recently in the commodity markets-when they sell forward contracts and the price keeps falling, they say \"I don't want it either\".</p><p>And when the price goes up, they will say that we want to do premium protection to hedge against the price increase. Therefore, the buyer who extends these forward purchases is a (bubble) indicator.</p><p>I use this table to show the entire stock market. I apply this framework to basically all assets, and use a systematic method to try to determine which ones are in bubbles. In my opinion, among the various stocks, some have bubbles and some don't, and the stock market as a whole is what this chart shows.</p><p>This chart dates back to 1910, and it is an indicator of the degree of bubble. You can see that there is a bubble at present, but it is not as high as 2000 and 1929, but higher than 2007.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4f2ff86c22e19d1a051e96d120c0fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at stocks with bubbles, and by these criteria, many stocks don't have bubbles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebf9f9bfdd5c982106b5c4f97acf635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This chart dates back to 1995. Compared with 2000, the proportion of bubbles in the market value of the top 1,000 companies is about 5%, and the share of bubbles in the entire S&P 500 index is about 2%. Although it is not as high as 2000, it is higher than that in 2007.</p><p>Now on to the next chart showing the bubble stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15720e9f5f0240be2ddeda3d14230eaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I separate these bubble stocks from the S&P 500 and can see a decline in the proportion of bubble stocks in the broader market, which I believe is likely to continue, but is currently in a bubble. One of the problems is that bubbles can expand and contract, and timing is a big problem.</p><p>The chart below dates back to 1900. The chart above shows the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP). The blue line in the chart below shows interest rates, and the red line shows the scale of money printing, that is, the amount of money flowing in. So you can see that when debt accumulates, as it is now, and near zero interest rates are implemented, and when both are present, there is a lot of money printing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3d3c839ca42009c377a3eed7c9c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That's a key factor in the bubble because there's a lot of liquidity coming into the market and then there's a lot of money gouging up all sorts of asset prices, so you can see that when the blue line hits zero, the red line goes up sharply. A lot of liquidity, a lot of debt financing and debt monetization form a typical bubble.</p><p>Other factors that can create bubbles are new shares, especially if they are not profitable, or in many cases have no prospect of being profitable.</p><p>These are also bubble considerations, so I would say that you can't say that the current stock market is in the highest degree of bubble, you have to distinguish which stocks are in a bubble, or have been in a bubble; Which stocks aren't, there are actually many stocks that aren't in a bubble at the moment.</p><p>So I hope that gives you some insight into bubbles and how I see them and where we are at the moment. Thank you.</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dalio's latest speech: The stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDalio's latest speech: The stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">人民币交易与研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 19:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, sent two tweets on June 24th, introducing his six indicators for measuring bubbles, and released a 10-minute video to explain his views on the current stock market bubble.</p><p>In this video explaining the stock bubble at the request of the Robin Hood Foundation, Dalio said that while indicators show that some stocks are \"in a bubble\" right now, the stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed46d81d71867f2d1eb8b3b9ad012779\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"By bubble I mean unsustainable high prices, and I measure it with six metrics,\" Dalio wrote in a tweet, noting that investors need to pay attention to signs such as buyer leverage levels and the number of new buyers.</p><p>In fact, as early as mid-May, Dario shared his research on the stock market bubble in WeChat official account, detailing these six systematic \"bubble indicators\", including price, bullish sentiment, leverage, etc.:</p><p>1. How high is the price compared to traditional measures?</p><p>2. Do prices reflect unsustainable conditions?</p><p>3. How many new buyers (that is, people who were not in the market before) entered the market?</p><p>4. How common is bullish sentiment?</p><p>5. Does trading rely on the support of high leverage?</p><p>6. Are buyers excessively engaging in forward transactions (such as building inventory, signing forward agreements, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves from future price increases?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89447f632ae50e578dd9ebcd007795e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here's the full text of this video talk, titled Is the stock market currently in a bubble?:</p><p>Hello everyone, it's a pleasure to be here on behalf of all those who have been helped by Robin Hood (Foundation).</p><p>You know, know Robin Hood because I knew Paul Tudor Jones, when Robin Hood was a glimmer in his eye, and he would play basketball with the kids in Bedford-Stuyvincent neighborhood (Bed Stuy), and I was lucky to see him and all the staff at the Robin Hood Fund, in a very personal and efficient way to help alleviate poverty in America, and to be a part of it. Everything you've done is great, so I just want to thank you for everything you've done and tell you how happy I am to be here and do my modest part.</p><p>I was asked to talk about bubbles, whether the market, the stock market is in a bubble, and what kind of bubble. I just want to give you some thoughts on this issue, I only have about 10 minutes. So I want to speak quickly, a few years ago, I started thinking: What is a bubble? What do I mean by bubble when we are in it? Because in my 50 years of investing, I have seen a lot of bubbles.</p><p>There are six things in my mind that I basically think will cause a bubble, and I'll list them one by one. Now, look at them so you know what I'm talking about.</p><p>First of all, you know, how high our prices are relative to traditional price measures is a consideration. For example, you know our PSI or yields and things like that, that's a consideration, but that's not what I call a bubble.</p><p>For example, there may be a phenomenon of high price and low return, and this situation can last for a long time, but this does not mean that the bubble will burst, it is just one of the components.</p><p>Second, the price reflects unsustainable conditions, which refers to the nature of the buyer, who is buying and how to buy. Unsustainable conditions will produce price adjustments or declines, and then the third speculative factor appears-New buyers in the market are attracted.</p><p>You know, it's like a cocktail party, and some people who never attend show up, that is, invested in certain assets, it could be tech stocks, it could be real estate, but anyway, everybody thinks, not holding those things makes them feel stupid, and that kind of thing.</p><p>The fifth is the large purchase of forward \"contracts\", such as when someone bought an apartment they didn't know about because they thought it would go up, or using the age of large-scale commodity trading as an example. I would watch people who use commodities and they buy a lot of forward contracts. In other words, buy inventory to protect yourself from rising prices.</p><p>So when they leave the market-as we've seen recently in the commodity markets-when they sell forward contracts and the price keeps falling, they say \"I don't want it either\".</p><p>And when the price goes up, they will say that we want to do premium protection to hedge against the price increase. Therefore, the buyer who extends these forward purchases is a (bubble) indicator.</p><p>I use this table to show the entire stock market. I apply this framework to basically all assets, and use a systematic method to try to determine which ones are in bubbles. In my opinion, among the various stocks, some have bubbles and some don't, and the stock market as a whole is what this chart shows.</p><p>This chart dates back to 1910, and it is an indicator of the degree of bubble. You can see that there is a bubble at present, but it is not as high as 2000 and 1929, but higher than 2007.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4f2ff86c22e19d1a051e96d120c0fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at stocks with bubbles, and by these criteria, many stocks don't have bubbles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebf9f9bfdd5c982106b5c4f97acf635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This chart dates back to 1995. Compared with 2000, the proportion of bubbles in the market value of the top 1,000 companies is about 5%, and the share of bubbles in the entire S&P 500 index is about 2%. Although it is not as high as 2000, it is higher than that in 2007.</p><p>Now on to the next chart showing the bubble stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15720e9f5f0240be2ddeda3d14230eaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I separate these bubble stocks from the S&P 500 and can see a decline in the proportion of bubble stocks in the broader market, which I believe is likely to continue, but is currently in a bubble. One of the problems is that bubbles can expand and contract, and timing is a big problem.</p><p>The chart below dates back to 1900. The chart above shows the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP). The blue line in the chart below shows interest rates, and the red line shows the scale of money printing, that is, the amount of money flowing in. So you can see that when debt accumulates, as it is now, and near zero interest rates are implemented, and when both are present, there is a lot of money printing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3d3c839ca42009c377a3eed7c9c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That's a key factor in the bubble because there's a lot of liquidity coming into the market and then there's a lot of money gouging up all sorts of asset prices, so you can see that when the blue line hits zero, the red line goes up sharply. A lot of liquidity, a lot of debt financing and debt monetization form a typical bubble.</p><p>Other factors that can create bubbles are new shares, especially if they are not profitable, or in many cases have no prospect of being profitable.</p><p>These are also bubble considerations, so I would say that you can't say that the current stock market is in the highest degree of bubble, you have to distinguish which stocks are in a bubble, or have been in a bubble; Which stocks aren't, there are actually many stocks that aren't in a bubble at the moment.</p><p>So I hope that gives you some insight into bubbles and how I see them and where we are at the moment. Thank you.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w\">人民币交易与研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186578125","content_text":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。\n\n达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。\n事实上，早在5月中旬时，达里奥就曾在公众号分享了他对股市泡沫的研究，详述了这六种系统性“泡沫指标”，包括价格、看涨情绪、杠杆高低等：\n1． 相对传统的衡量标准，价格有多高？\n2． 价格是否反映了不可持续的状况？\n3． 有多少新买家（即之前不在市场里的人）进入了市场？\n4． 看涨情绪有多普遍？\n5． 交易是否依赖高杠杆的支撑？\n6． 买家是否过度进行远期交易（如建立库存、签订远期协议等）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？\n\n以下是这个名为《股市目前是否处于泡沫中？》的视频演讲全文：\n大家好，很高兴能代表所有被罗宾汉（基金会）帮助过的人来到这里。\n你们知道，知道罗宾汉，是因为我认识保罗·都铎·琼斯，当时罗宾汉是他眼里的一抹微光，他会在贝德福德-斯图文森特街区（Bed Stuy）和孩子们一起打篮球，我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员，以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困，并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒，所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切，并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力，我有多么高兴。\n我被要求谈论泡沫，市场、股市是否处于泡沫中，以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法，我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点，几年前，我开始思考：什么是泡沫？当我们身处泡沫中时，我所说的泡沫是指什么？因为在我50年的投资生涯中，我看到了很多泡沫。\n在我脑海中，有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的，我将他们一一列举出来。现在，看着它们，以便您知道我在说什么。\n首先，您知道，我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如，你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西，这是一个考虑因素，但这不是我所说的泡沫。\n比方说，可能出现价格高回报低的现象，而且这种情况可以持续很长时间，但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭，只是其中一个组成因素。\n第二，价格是反映不可持续的条件，这里指的是买方的性质，谁在买入和如何买入，不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌，然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。\n您知道，这就像鸡尾酒会，有些从不参加的人出现了，也就是投资了某些资产，可能是科技股，也可能是房地产，但无论如何，每个人都想，没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢，诸如此类。\n第五项是大额购买远期“合约”，比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓，因为他们认为公寓会上涨，或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人，他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说，购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。\n所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时，价格持续下跌，他们会说“我也不想要它”。\n而当价格上涨时，他们会说我们要进行溢价保护，对冲价格上涨。所以，延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个（泡沫）指标。\n我用这张表显示整个股市，我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上，并且使用一种系统化的方法，试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来，在各种各样的股票中，有些存在泡沫，有些则没有，而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。\n这张图表可以追溯到1910年，它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的，但没有2000年和1929年那么高，不过高于2007年。\n\n让我们看看存在泡沫的股票，根据这些标准，很多股票没有泡沫。\n\n这张图表追溯到1995年，与2000年相比，前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%，整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%，虽然不如2000年高，但比2007年高。\n现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。\n\n我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离，可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降，我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去，但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是，泡沫可以扩张和收缩，时机是个大问题。\n下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年，上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比，下图中蓝线显示的是利率，红线显示印钞规模，也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时，就像现在的情况，并且实施近零利率，这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。\n\n这是泡沫的一个关键因素，因为有大量的流动性进入市场，然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格，所以你可以看到，当蓝线触及零时，红线大幅上行。大量流动性，大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。\n其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市，特别是如果它们没有盈利，或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。\n这些也是泡沫的考虑因素，所以我想说，你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫，你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中；哪些股票没有，实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。\n所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126746181,"gmtCreate":1624586066243,"gmtModify":1703841016063,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3574500206068120\">@Kenwen</a>: k","listText":"Ok//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3574500206068120\">@Kenwen</a>: k","text":"Ok//@Kenwen: k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126746181","repostId":"1166056944","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166056944","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623160615,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166056944?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 High-Octane Growth Stocks With 54% to 94% Upside, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166056944","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"If analysts are correct, this assortment of rapidly growing companies could deliver big-time returns","content":"<blockquote><b>If analysts are correct, this assortment of rapidly growing companies could deliver big-time returns over the next year.</b></blockquote><p>For the past 12 years, growth stocks have been the key to sending the broader market higher. Even though value stocks have been the better performer of the two categories over the very long-term, historically low lending rates and trillions of dollars being pumped into the U.S. economy have created a perfect storm for growth stocks to thrive.</p><p>Yet according to Wall Street's one-year consensus price targets, somegrowth stocksaren't anywhere near realizing their full potential. If analysts' consensus price targets prove accurate, the following five high-octane growth stocks offer upside ranging from 54% to 94% over the next year.</p><p><b>Vaxart: Implied upside of 94%</b></p><p>The supercharged growth stock on this list with thegreatest implied upsideover the coming 12 months is clinical-stagebiotech stock<b>Vaxart</b>(NASDAQ:VXRT). If you're wondering why I've included a clinical-stage drug developer, it's because all of the analysts covering it are forecasting recurring sales for the company, beginning in 2022. If Wall Street's estimates are correct, Vaxart's stock could nearly double from where it closed this past week.</p><p>What makes Vaxart such a unique drug developer is its approach to developing treatments. Specifically, it develops oral recombinant vaccines, rather than vaccines administered by injection. It should be a lot easier to dispense and administer pills than injections, which could resolve factors like shot hesitancy and vaccine access.</p><p>Even though it has multiple treatments in the works, most of the buzz surrounding Vaxart has to do with its work in the lab on VXA-CoV2-1, an experimental oral tablet to treat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Data from a phase 1 study in February showed VXA-CoV2-1 met all of its primary and secondary safety and immunogenicity endpoints. The data also signaled that Vaxart's oral treatment may be effective against COVID-19 variants.</p><p>Though it's probablya bit too earlyto get overly excited about Vaxart, it's a name worth closely monitoring.</p><p><b>Trulieve Cannabis: Implied upside of 88%</b></p><p>It's no secret that cannabis is set to be one of North America's fastest-growing industries this decade. But amongmarijuana stocks, U.S. multistate operator (MSO)<b>Trulieve Cannabis</b>(OTC:TCNNF)offers some of the most robust upside. If Wall Street's consensus price target of a little over $72 is correct, Trulieve could gallop higher by 88% over the coming year.</p><p>There are a lot of unique growth strategies among MSOs, but none hasproved more successful than Trulieve's blueprint. At the moment, Trulieve has 88 operational dispensaries. But here's the kicker: 82 of them are located in medical marijuana-legal Florida. By focusing its efforts on a single big-dollar state, Trulieve has been able to saturate the market, effectively build up its brand, and keep its marketing costs down. The company has been profitable for 13 consecutive quarters, and as of the end of 2020 controlled 53% of the Sunshine State's dried flower market and 49% of its high-margin cannabinoid oils market.</p><p>Equally intriguing is Trulieve's recently announced all-stock deal to acquire MSO<b>Harvest Health &amp; Recreation</b>(OTC:HRVSF)for $2.1 billion. Harvest has a focus on five states, one of which happens to be Florida. Aside from solidifying an even bigger presence in the Sunshine State, Trulieve will gain access to Harvest's state-leading 15 dispensaries in Arizona. The Grand Canyon State legalized recreational weed in November. There's a good chance Trulieve can use Harvest's infrastructure to duplicate its success in Arizona.</p><p><b>Magnite: Implied upside of 59%</b></p><p>Another high-octane growth stock with significant upside potential, according to Wall Street, is sell-side advertising technology platform<b>Magnite</b>(NASDAQ:MGNI). If analysts are correct about Magnite hitting nearly $46 a share in 12 months, it would represent upside potential of 59%.</p><p>Magnite finds itself at the center of a double-digit growth trend that should last for a long time to come. As consumers cut the cord to traditional cable and shift to other forms of entertainment and content consumption, businesseswill be more likely to shift their advertising dollarsonline, to apps, and to streaming/connected TV (CTV). Although mobile platforms accounted for almost half of Magnite's revenue last year, it's CTV that looks to be the most intriguing long-term growth driver.</p><p>One of thebiggest boostsfor Magnite should come from its recently closed cash-and-stock acquisition of SpotX. SpotX generated $31.2 million in sales (less traffic acquisition costs) in the first quarter, with $19.7 million of this net revenue attributable to CTV. That was up 70% from the prior-year period. The now-combined company has sell-side ad platform exposure to the likes of<b>fuboTV</b>,<b>Roku</b>,<b>Disney</b>, and WarnerMedia, to name a few leading platforms.</p><p>With Magnite profitable on a recurring basis and fully capable of sustainable double-digit growth, a 59% 12-month return isn't out of the question.</p><p><b>Teladoc Health: Implied upside of 56%</b></p><p>Transformativehealthcare stock<b>Teladoc Health</b>(NYSE:TDOC)is also expected to offer abundant upside potential. Based on Wall Street's consensus price target of around $229, Teladoc could rise by a cool 56% over the next 12 months.</p><p>A lot of folks view Teladoc asone of the biggest winners during the COVID-19 pandemic. With doctors wanting to keep high-risk people and infected patients out of their offices, many turned to virtual visits. Teladoc ultimately handled 10.59 million telehealth visits last year, up from 4.14 million in 2019. But these folks are probably overlooking that Teladoc grew sales by an annual average of 74% in the six years leading up to the pandemic.</p><p>What makes telemedicine such a winning trend is that itoffers advantages up and down the treatment chain. Telehealth allows patients to stay home for consultations, and it's a tool physicians can use to keep closer tabs on their chronically ill patients. This ease of oversight could result in improved patient outcomes. It also doesn't hurt that virtual visits are billed at a lower rate than office visits.</p><p>Following its acquisition of leading applied health signals company Livongo Health in the fourth quarter, Teladoc has all the tools needed to provide next-level personalized care. In other words, this price target looks very realistic over the next year.</p><p>Plug Power: Implied upside of 54%</p><p>Finally, hydrogen fuel-cell solutions company<b>Plug Power</b>(NASDAQ:PLUG)is a (pardon the irony) high-octane growth stock with ample upside. If analysts are correct about its price target of almost $47 in a year, Plug could deliver a 54% return to its shareholders.</p><p>The big buzz with Plug Power is the push by developed countries, including the U.S., to renewable sources of energy. President Biden has proposed a massive infrastructure bill tailored to renewable energy projects, which signals the federal government's willingness to invest in clean-energy solutions.</p><p>Since the year began, Plug Power landed two major joint venture partners. South Korea's SK Group took a 10% equity stake in Plug and will work with the company to develop hydrogen fuel-cell solutions for vehicles and refilling stations. Meanwhile, French auto company<b>Renault</b>formed a joint venture with Plug to tackle Europe's light commercial vehicle market. Following these joint venture announcements, the companyintroduced a gross billings target of $1.7 billion by 2024, which would almost quadruple its forecasted sales for 2021.</p><p>Whether it'll be smooth sailingremains to be seen. The company recently restated years' worth of its income statements, and history hasn't always been kind to the introduction of new automotive technology.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 High-Octane Growth Stocks With 54% to 94% Upside, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 High-Octane Growth Stocks With 54% to 94% Upside, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-08 21:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/08/5-high-octane-growth-stocks-with-54-to-94-upside/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If analysts are correct, this assortment of rapidly growing companies could deliver big-time returns over the next year.For the past 12 years, growth stocks have been the key to sending the broader ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/08/5-high-octane-growth-stocks-with-54-to-94-upside/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MGNI":"Magnite, Inc.","PLUG":"普拉格能源","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","TCNNF":"Trulieve Cannabis Corporation","VXRT":"Vaxart, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/08/5-high-octane-growth-stocks-with-54-to-94-upside/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166056944","content_text":"If analysts are correct, this assortment of rapidly growing companies could deliver big-time returns over the next year.For the past 12 years, growth stocks have been the key to sending the broader market higher. Even though value stocks have been the better performer of the two categories over the very long-term, historically low lending rates and trillions of dollars being pumped into the U.S. economy have created a perfect storm for growth stocks to thrive.Yet according to Wall Street's one-year consensus price targets, somegrowth stocksaren't anywhere near realizing their full potential. If analysts' consensus price targets prove accurate, the following five high-octane growth stocks offer upside ranging from 54% to 94% over the next year.Vaxart: Implied upside of 94%The supercharged growth stock on this list with thegreatest implied upsideover the coming 12 months is clinical-stagebiotech stockVaxart(NASDAQ:VXRT). If you're wondering why I've included a clinical-stage drug developer, it's because all of the analysts covering it are forecasting recurring sales for the company, beginning in 2022. If Wall Street's estimates are correct, Vaxart's stock could nearly double from where it closed this past week.What makes Vaxart such a unique drug developer is its approach to developing treatments. Specifically, it develops oral recombinant vaccines, rather than vaccines administered by injection. It should be a lot easier to dispense and administer pills than injections, which could resolve factors like shot hesitancy and vaccine access.Even though it has multiple treatments in the works, most of the buzz surrounding Vaxart has to do with its work in the lab on VXA-CoV2-1, an experimental oral tablet to treat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Data from a phase 1 study in February showed VXA-CoV2-1 met all of its primary and secondary safety and immunogenicity endpoints. The data also signaled that Vaxart's oral treatment may be effective against COVID-19 variants.Though it's probablya bit too earlyto get overly excited about Vaxart, it's a name worth closely monitoring.Trulieve Cannabis: Implied upside of 88%It's no secret that cannabis is set to be one of North America's fastest-growing industries this decade. But amongmarijuana stocks, U.S. multistate operator (MSO)Trulieve Cannabis(OTC:TCNNF)offers some of the most robust upside. If Wall Street's consensus price target of a little over $72 is correct, Trulieve could gallop higher by 88% over the coming year.There are a lot of unique growth strategies among MSOs, but none hasproved more successful than Trulieve's blueprint. At the moment, Trulieve has 88 operational dispensaries. But here's the kicker: 82 of them are located in medical marijuana-legal Florida. By focusing its efforts on a single big-dollar state, Trulieve has been able to saturate the market, effectively build up its brand, and keep its marketing costs down. The company has been profitable for 13 consecutive quarters, and as of the end of 2020 controlled 53% of the Sunshine State's dried flower market and 49% of its high-margin cannabinoid oils market.Equally intriguing is Trulieve's recently announced all-stock deal to acquire MSOHarvest Health & Recreation(OTC:HRVSF)for $2.1 billion. Harvest has a focus on five states, one of which happens to be Florida. Aside from solidifying an even bigger presence in the Sunshine State, Trulieve will gain access to Harvest's state-leading 15 dispensaries in Arizona. The Grand Canyon State legalized recreational weed in November. There's a good chance Trulieve can use Harvest's infrastructure to duplicate its success in Arizona.Magnite: Implied upside of 59%Another high-octane growth stock with significant upside potential, according to Wall Street, is sell-side advertising technology platformMagnite(NASDAQ:MGNI). If analysts are correct about Magnite hitting nearly $46 a share in 12 months, it would represent upside potential of 59%.Magnite finds itself at the center of a double-digit growth trend that should last for a long time to come. As consumers cut the cord to traditional cable and shift to other forms of entertainment and content consumption, businesseswill be more likely to shift their advertising dollarsonline, to apps, and to streaming/connected TV (CTV). Although mobile platforms accounted for almost half of Magnite's revenue last year, it's CTV that looks to be the most intriguing long-term growth driver.One of thebiggest boostsfor Magnite should come from its recently closed cash-and-stock acquisition of SpotX. SpotX generated $31.2 million in sales (less traffic acquisition costs) in the first quarter, with $19.7 million of this net revenue attributable to CTV. That was up 70% from the prior-year period. The now-combined company has sell-side ad platform exposure to the likes offuboTV,Roku,Disney, and WarnerMedia, to name a few leading platforms.With Magnite profitable on a recurring basis and fully capable of sustainable double-digit growth, a 59% 12-month return isn't out of the question.Teladoc Health: Implied upside of 56%Transformativehealthcare stockTeladoc Health(NYSE:TDOC)is also expected to offer abundant upside potential. Based on Wall Street's consensus price target of around $229, Teladoc could rise by a cool 56% over the next 12 months.A lot of folks view Teladoc asone of the biggest winners during the COVID-19 pandemic. With doctors wanting to keep high-risk people and infected patients out of their offices, many turned to virtual visits. Teladoc ultimately handled 10.59 million telehealth visits last year, up from 4.14 million in 2019. But these folks are probably overlooking that Teladoc grew sales by an annual average of 74% in the six years leading up to the pandemic.What makes telemedicine such a winning trend is that itoffers advantages up and down the treatment chain. Telehealth allows patients to stay home for consultations, and it's a tool physicians can use to keep closer tabs on their chronically ill patients. This ease of oversight could result in improved patient outcomes. It also doesn't hurt that virtual visits are billed at a lower rate than office visits.Following its acquisition of leading applied health signals company Livongo Health in the fourth quarter, Teladoc has all the tools needed to provide next-level personalized care. In other words, this price target looks very realistic over the next year.Plug Power: Implied upside of 54%Finally, hydrogen fuel-cell solutions companyPlug Power(NASDAQ:PLUG)is a (pardon the irony) high-octane growth stock with ample upside. If analysts are correct about its price target of almost $47 in a year, Plug could deliver a 54% return to its shareholders.The big buzz with Plug Power is the push by developed countries, including the U.S., to renewable sources of energy. President Biden has proposed a massive infrastructure bill tailored to renewable energy projects, which signals the federal government's willingness to invest in clean-energy solutions.Since the year began, Plug Power landed two major joint venture partners. South Korea's SK Group took a 10% equity stake in Plug and will work with the company to develop hydrogen fuel-cell solutions for vehicles and refilling stations. Meanwhile, French auto companyRenaultformed a joint venture with Plug to tackle Europe's light commercial vehicle market. Following these joint venture announcements, the companyintroduced a gross billings target of $1.7 billion by 2024, which would almost quadruple its forecasted sales for 2021.Whether it'll be smooth sailingremains to be seen. The company recently restated years' worth of its income statements, and history hasn't always been kind to the introduction of new automotive technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MGNI":0.9,"TCNNF":0.9,"PLUG":0.9,"TDOC":0.9,"VXRT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126748892,"gmtCreate":1624586042716,"gmtModify":1703841014751,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126748892","repostId":"1183560687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167962751,"gmtCreate":1624243064773,"gmtModify":1703831378566,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167962751","repostId":"2145004707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168159356,"gmtCreate":1623967743375,"gmtModify":1703824732520,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168159356","repostId":"1119601826","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574500206068120","authorIdStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"This is what letters i hv","text":"This is what letters i hv","html":"This is what letters i hv"},{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574500206068120","authorIdStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Hoseh, dishwashing power","text":"Hoseh, dishwashing power","html":"Hoseh, dishwashing power"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184884082,"gmtCreate":1623706956046,"gmtModify":1704208985757,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184884082","repostId":"1109157353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115757082,"gmtCreate":1623032346846,"gmtModify":1704194665567,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115757082","repostId":"1185662195","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112157179,"gmtCreate":1622857407491,"gmtModify":1704192504043,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112157179","repostId":"2141400304","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141400304","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622854462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141400304?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 08:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Microsoft's $16 billion acquisition of Nuance has received US antitrust approval","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141400304","media":"新浪科技","summary":"北京时间6月5日上午消息，据报道，根据最近人工智能与语音技术公司Nuance向政府提交的文件，微软收购Nuance的这笔交易，已经获得美国的反垄断许可。今年四月份，微软正式公开了这笔160亿美元的交易","content":"<p>On the morning of June 5, Beijing time, it was reported that according to documents recently submitted to the government by Nuance, an artificial intelligence and voice technology company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The acquisition of Nuance has obtained an antitrust license from the United States.</p><p>In April this year, Microsoft officially announced the $16 billion deal. Prior to this, the two companies had cooperated on automated medical management work (such as file archiving, etc.) in 2019.</p><p>In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, Nuance said the deadline for the U.S. government to file objections to the deal is June 1. Nuance said the expiration of that date \"satisfies one of the conditions for closing the transaction.\"</p><p>A Microsoft spokesperson previously said in a statement that regulators in other jurisdictions are reviewing the acquisition and expect the deal to be completed by the end of 2021.</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft's $16 billion acquisition of Nuance has received US antitrust approval</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft's $16 billion acquisition of Nuance has received US antitrust approval\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the morning of June 5, Beijing time, it was reported that according to documents recently submitted to the government by Nuance, an artificial intelligence and voice technology company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The acquisition of Nuance has obtained an antitrust license from the United States.</p><p>In April this year, Microsoft officially announced the $16 billion deal. Prior to this, the two companies had cooperated on automated medical management work (such as file archiving, etc.) in 2019.</p><p>In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, Nuance said the deadline for the U.S. government to file objections to the deal is June 1. Nuance said the expiration of that date \"satisfies one of the conditions for closing the transaction.\"</p><p>A Microsoft spokesperson previously said in a statement that regulators in other jurisdictions are reviewing the acquisition and expect the deal to be completed by the end of 2021.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gj/2021-06-05/detail-ikqcfnaz9207589.d.html?vt=4\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055c7812061d918cb8dbc486a1ec6b48","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gj/2021-06-05/detail-ikqcfnaz9207589.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141400304","content_text":"北京时间6月5日上午消息，据报道，根据最近人工智能与语音技术公司Nuance向政府提交的文件，微软收购Nuance的这笔交易，已经获得美国的反垄断许可。今年四月份，微软正式公开了这笔160亿美元的交易。在此之前，两家公司已经在2019年就自动化医疗管理工作（比如文件归档等）进行合作。在周五提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件中，Nuance表示，美国政府对该交易提出反对的截止日期为6月1日。Nuance称，该日期到期“满足了完成交易的条件之一”。微软发言人之前在一份声明中表示，其他司法管辖区的监管机构正在审查这笔收购交易，并预期交易将于2021年底完成。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118706512,"gmtCreate":1622760522336,"gmtModify":1704190480122,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118706512","repostId":"1135014295","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135014295","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622735206,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135014295?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 23:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Biden changed his mouth! Without raising corporate taxes, the three major US stock indexes collectively rebounded","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135014295","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四晚间消息，美国总统拜登在周三的一次非公开会议上表示，将对他的税收提案进行重大修改，以赢得共和党对其1万亿美元基础设施一揽子计划的支持。拜登的税收新计划似乎不会提高最高企业税率。据一位不愿透露姓名的","content":"<p>Thursday night news,<b>President Joe Biden said in a closed meeting on Wednesday that he would make major changes to his tax proposal to win Republican support for his $1 trillion infrastructure package.</b>Biden's new tax plan doesn't appear to raise the top corporate tax rate. According to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named,<b>Biden's proposed corporate tax floor of 15% is intended to be imposed on dozens of U.S. companies that pay little to no tax annually to the federal government.</b></p><p>Biden's new proposal amounts to a major concession after proposing to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. The two sides are scheduled to meet again on Friday to discuss.</p><p>Affected by this news, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded, and the Dow turned higher during the session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea875c04d97b05af2b4acfede7ef85d1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden changed his mouth! Without raising corporate taxes, the three major US stock indexes collectively rebounded</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden changed his mouth! Without raising corporate taxes, the three major US stock indexes collectively rebounded\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-03 23:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thursday night news,<b>President Joe Biden said in a closed meeting on Wednesday that he would make major changes to his tax proposal to win Republican support for his $1 trillion infrastructure package.</b>Biden's new tax plan doesn't appear to raise the top corporate tax rate. According to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named,<b>Biden's proposed corporate tax floor of 15% is intended to be imposed on dozens of U.S. companies that pay little to no tax annually to the federal government.</b></p><p>Biden's new proposal amounts to a major concession after proposing to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. The two sides are scheduled to meet again on Friday to discuss.</p><p>Affected by this news, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded, and the Dow turned higher during the session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea875c04d97b05af2b4acfede7ef85d1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bb8e90cfe187914a988d67a8c088582","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135014295","content_text":"周四晚间消息，美国总统拜登在周三的一次非公开会议上表示，将对他的税收提案进行重大修改，以赢得共和党对其1万亿美元基础设施一揽子计划的支持。拜登的税收新计划似乎不会提高最高企业税率。据一位不愿透露姓名的知情人士透露，拜登建议公司税的下限为15%，旨在对数十家每年向联邦政府支付很少甚至不支付任何税收的美国公司征收。拜登的新提议相当于一个重大让步，此前拜登提出将公司税率从21%提高至28%。双方定于周五再次会面讨论。受此消息影响，美股三大股指回升，道指盘中转涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137403263,"gmtCreate":1622372170052,"gmtModify":1704183572735,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137403263","repostId":"1151377509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135705174,"gmtCreate":1622181430398,"gmtModify":1704181022633,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135705174","repostId":"1130424152","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130424152","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1622171495,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130424152?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Retail investors are squeezing short again! What else are they buying besides GME and AMC","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130424152","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周四，美国连锁影院AMC股价再度飙升35%，创近四年新高。","content":"<p>Author: Lin Jingyang</p><p>On Thursday, the stock price of American cinema chain AMC soared by 35% again, hitting a new high in nearly four years; Video game retailer GME also rose another 5%, with BioCryst, Roblox,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Keep going higher. In the past five days, GME and AMC have risen 48% and 110% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e388aac59a8b09ac14bd9977904ab1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the news of shorting GME and AMC went viral on social media last week, retail investors once again gathered to buy heavily. Four months ago, the \"short squeeze war\" of U.S. stock retail investors was still in front of us, and now it seems to be making a comeback.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, since May 12, the return rate of \"retail investors' favorite\" stocks has exceeded the market by 5%. However, in mid-March, as the \"retail investors' air squeeze\" stalled, the performance of such small-cap stocks once lagged behind the market by 8%, and the situation reversed significantly.</p><p>GME and AMC are far more than the two stocks that are favored by retail investors. The bank listed the 50 most actively traded small-cap stocks by retail investors on Wednesday, as shown in the table below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3117aebfa949da6aff119f61c827840f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"726\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following table shows the small-cap stocks with the highest options trading activity:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11d7f476bc646e0e14478673ecc616a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Analysts said that due to the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, most retail investors lost their passion for \"coin speculation\" this month and re-entered the stock market in search of gains. Platforms like Reddit's WallStreetBets forum provide a constant source of enthusiasm for retail investors.</p><p>Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners said that short runs on AMC and GME have reached their highest, and AMC's rally this week has pushed the possibility of a short squeeze even higher. According to Bloomberg statistics, AMC's options trading volume reached 1.6 million on May 26, tied for the highest in history with February 25.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbb9b127d2494ab0c6ae7913d0c8bd8\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the other hand, short sellers once again experienced heartbreaking pain. According to data from S3 Partners, the cumulative loss of short sellers in AMC stock this year as of May 26 has exceeded US $1.3 billion, of which the loss on the 26th alone reached US $291 million.</p><p>Recently, CNBC host and U.S. stock market commentator Jim Cramer said that those who still try to short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>And AMC investors are crazy, retail investors at WallStreetBets are too strong, and trying to short now will only give them more ammunition.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Retail investors are squeezing short again! What else are they buying besides GME and AMC</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRetail investors are squeezing short again! What else are they buying besides GME and AMC\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-28 11:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Lin Jingyang</p><p>On Thursday, the stock price of American cinema chain AMC soared by 35% again, hitting a new high in nearly four years; Video game retailer GME also rose another 5%, with BioCryst, Roblox,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Keep going higher. In the past five days, GME and AMC have risen 48% and 110% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e388aac59a8b09ac14bd9977904ab1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the news of shorting GME and AMC went viral on social media last week, retail investors once again gathered to buy heavily. Four months ago, the \"short squeeze war\" of U.S. stock retail investors was still in front of us, and now it seems to be making a comeback.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, since May 12, the return rate of \"retail investors' favorite\" stocks has exceeded the market by 5%. However, in mid-March, as the \"retail investors' air squeeze\" stalled, the performance of such small-cap stocks once lagged behind the market by 8%, and the situation reversed significantly.</p><p>GME and AMC are far more than the two stocks that are favored by retail investors. The bank listed the 50 most actively traded small-cap stocks by retail investors on Wednesday, as shown in the table below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3117aebfa949da6aff119f61c827840f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"726\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following table shows the small-cap stocks with the highest options trading activity:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11d7f476bc646e0e14478673ecc616a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Analysts said that due to the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, most retail investors lost their passion for \"coin speculation\" this month and re-entered the stock market in search of gains. Platforms like Reddit's WallStreetBets forum provide a constant source of enthusiasm for retail investors.</p><p>Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners said that short runs on AMC and GME have reached their highest, and AMC's rally this week has pushed the possibility of a short squeeze even higher. According to Bloomberg statistics, AMC's options trading volume reached 1.6 million on May 26, tied for the highest in history with February 25.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbb9b127d2494ab0c6ae7913d0c8bd8\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the other hand, short sellers once again experienced heartbreaking pain. According to data from S3 Partners, the cumulative loss of short sellers in AMC stock this year as of May 26 has exceeded US $1.3 billion, of which the loss on the 26th alone reached US $291 million.</p><p>Recently, CNBC host and U.S. stock market commentator Jim Cramer said that those who still try to short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>And AMC investors are crazy, retail investors at WallStreetBets are too strong, and trying to short now will only give them more ammunition.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9799452c6e883af5f4b9930336873099","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130424152","content_text":"作者：林菁扬周四，美国连锁影院AMC股价再度飙升35%，创近四年新高；电子游戏零售商GME也再涨5%，BioCryst、Roblox、黑莓继续走高。过去五天，GME和AMC已分别大涨48%和110%。上周社群媒体疯传GME与AMC做空消息后，散户再次集结大举买进。四个月前美股散户“逼空大战”犹在眼前，如今似又卷土重来。据高盛，5月12日以来，“散户最爱”股票收益率已超出大盘5%，而3月中旬随着“散户逼空战”熄火，此类小型股表现一度落后大盘8%，情势明显逆转。被散户相中的远不止GME和AMC两只股票。该行罗列了50只周三散户交易最活跃的小型股，如下表所示：下表则展示了期权交易活跃度最高的小型股：分析师表示，由于加密货币市场近期震荡不断，本月大部分散户失去“炒币”激情，重新进入股市以寻求收益。Reddit的WallStreetBets论坛之类的平台给散户提供了持续的热情来源。S3 Partners的Ihor Dusaniwsky称，AMC和GME的空头挤兑情况已经达到了最高，而AMC本周的反弹将逼空的可能性推得更高。据彭博统计，AMC在5月26日的期权成交量达到了160万份，与2月25日并列历史最高。另一边，做空者再次经历钻心之痛。根据S3 Partners的数据显示，AMC股票的空头截止5月26日的今年累计亏损已经超过13亿美元，其中单单26日一天的亏损就达到2.91亿美元。近日，CNBC主持人、美国股市评论员Jim Cramer表示，那些仍然试图做空游戏驿站和AMC的投资者都是疯了，WallStreetBets的散户太强势了，现在试图做空只会给他们更多的弹药。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136183539,"gmtCreate":1621999241421,"gmtModify":1704365796819,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136183539","repostId":"1106894116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106894116","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621999122,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106894116?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 11:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Onshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106894116","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据中国货币网报价，在岸人民币兑美元升破6.4关口，为2018年6月来首次。","content":"<p>According to the quotation of China Money Network, the onshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Onshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOnshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-26 11:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to the quotation of China Money Network, the onshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d1fa6e9b69c5975060146f6c797ee5","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106894116","content_text":"据中国货币网报价，在岸人民币兑美元升破6.4关口，为2018年6月来首次。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USDCNYmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":153848156,"gmtCreate":1625019001775,"gmtModify":1703850238866,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":372,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153848156","repostId":"1133732318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133732318","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625018575,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133732318?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Good stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133732318","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"近期，A股市场持续分化，消费、医药、科技三大主线依旧向好，其他不少板块却震荡不已，尤其是里面一些龙头个股，明明是人人看好的好公司，却跌个不停，持续考验着投资者的信心。\n面对好股票持续下跌，越来越多的投","content":"<p>Recently, the A-share market has continued to differentiate. The three main lines of consumption, medicine, and technology are still improving, while many other sectors are fluctuating, especially some leading stocks, which are obviously good companies that everyone is optimistic about, but they keep falling. Continue to test investors' confidence.</p><p>Faced with the continuous decline of good stocks, more and more investors choose to cut their meat, because they really can't stand the inner suffering, hoping that after cutting their meat, it will be over. Psychologically, you may get temporary relief, but you can't hold good stocks. In the long run, investing and getting rich will become empty talk.</p><p><b>A-share industry differentiation</b></p><p>Strictly speaking, the bull market since 2019 is only a bull market for some industries, and many industries are in a bear market.</p><p><b>Taking the ten-year trend since 2010 as the measurement range, there are still many industries whose P/E quantile is lower than 10%, that is, the P/E level is lower than 90% of the trading days in the past ten years, and it is at the bottom of the valuation range; At the same time, there are also some industries whose P/E quantile reaches or even exceeds 90%, which is at the top of the valuation range.</b></p><p>On June 23, 2021, the P/E quantiles of the five industries of real estate (0.2%), architectural decoration (1.7%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (5.9%), media (9%), and non-bank finance (9.4%) were all lower than 10%. At the same time, the P/E quantiles of food and beverage (95.1%), leisure services (89.7%), and automobiles (89.7%) were around 90%, showing obvious polarization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5a5386dd588efa779e3aa097423dd6\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Putting aside A-shares, let's first discuss a question from the perspective of investment philosophy. As an investor, do you agree with the following view, that is, in the long run, buying and holding industries with low P/E will significantly perform better than buying and holding industries with high P/E.</p><p>As far as the idea theory is concerned, I believe many investors recognize it. Everyone believes that \"buying at an underestimate and holding it for a long time\" is the only way to make money through investment. This is why many people call themselves value investors.</p><p>But if we return to the reality of A-shares, the current P/E in real estate, architectural decoration, non-bank finance and other industries are at historical lows. Are you willing to buy now and hold it for a long time?</p><p>I believe<b>Once it returns to reality, many people will hesitate, because everyone can easily find a lot of reasons to look down on these industries.</b>For example, in the real estate and building decoration industries, investors will say that the big logic is broken due to factors such as housing for living and not speculation, and the aging population; Another example is the insurance industry. Everyone thinks that the downward trend of long-term interest rates suppresses the investment income of insurance companies, and the Internet makes the competition of insurance products transparent, which will lower the underwriting profits of insurance products, and so on.</p><p>Similarly, from the perspective of investment philosophy, everyone praises Buffett's \"fear when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful\" and deeply agrees with it; However, under the financial crisis in 2008, the stock market fell so hard that people were vomiting. When Buffett issued a document calling on everyone to buy stocks, few people responded, because in the specific market environment at that time, everyone could easily find a bunch of reasons to be bearish.</p><p>It can be seen that buying or holding stocks that are not favored by the market is never easy.</p><p><b>\"This time is different\"</b></p><p>Many investment gurus have said the same thing. The five most expensive words in investment are \"this time is different\".</p><p>The Dutch tulip bubble in the 17th century was the most influential recorded speculative bubble event in human history, and people learned many lessons from it, including that any bubble will burst; In the South China Sea bubble incident 100 years later, investors thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt; Until the Internet speculative bubble in the 1990s, investors still thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt.</p><p>This is true during the bubble period, and so is the panic phase.</p><p><b>Talking about ideas in terms of ideas, investors believe in mean reversion, believe that trees will not grow to the sky, believe that others are greedy and I am afraid, and others are afraid and I am greedy; But when returning to investment reality, you can always find various reasons to convince yourself that \"this time is different\" until you pay a huge price.</b>Three or five years later, everyone will forget the lesson again and continue the story of \"this time is different\", repeatedly.</p><p>Only a few people can jump out of this strange circle and maintain stable investment returns for a long time. These investors rely on believing in common sense and mean reversion. Especially at a specific point in time, do not dwell on the optimistic or pessimistic views of the mainstream of the market, but look at the problem from a higher level and a farther perspective, so as to move against the trend. As Peter Lynch put it;</p><p>\"Whenever I feel worried and disappointed about the current big picture, I try to focus on the'even bigger picture '. If you expect yourself to maintain confidence in the stock market, you must understand the concept of'bigger picture'. The'bigger picture 'is to look at the stock market from a longer and longer perspective.\" From this passage, it can be seen that Peter Lynch didn't convince himself from a rational or logical point of view that the current situation was not worthy of worry. On the contrary, he also thought that the situation was worrying and disappointing. In order not to be influenced by this emotion, he used a longer and farther perspective to convince himself not to be afraid.</p><p>In the final analysis,<b>When the market falls into panic, outstanding investors do not refute the market from facts, but broaden their eyes, defeat short-term rationality with long-term rationality, and defeat panic with simple common sense.</b></p><p>Going back to A-shares, if an investor holds insurance stocks, the current P/E of the insurance sector is at the bottom of ten years (0.9%). From the perspective of long-term mean reversion, now is the best time to hold firmly and wait for a reversal. However, if we focus on the fundamentals of the industry, many problems have not been answered in the short term, and there is no hope for the stock price to fall. It seems that \"the bottom of this valuation is different.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c593b63faa09c6219f83f6c2be0f54\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, it is precisely because it is often difficult to make choices purely from the level of logical analysis that investors need to rely on the investment system to assist in decision-making.</p><p><b>Jump out of a logical dead end</b></p><p><b>Any investment system contains many principles of mechanical operation. It is by relying on these principles that investors can jump out of the dead end of logic and grasp the bigger situation.</b></p><p>Under the value investment system, mean reversion is the core belief. When fundamentals and market sentiment are at odds with it, value investors should stand on the side of mean reversion, otherwise they will not be able to have the courage to hold against the trend.</p><p>For example, during the financial crisis in 2008, there was no hope in the fundamentals, and the stock market plummeted. At this time, value investors bought at the bottom, not seeing hope from the Fed's rescue policy, but based on the belief of \"mean reversion\". Mechanical buying. To put it bluntly, it is not because I have a lot of confidence, but purely because the stock market has fallen too badly, so I bought it.</p><p>Howard Marks once recalled this history. He had a product with leverage. At the worst of the crisis, he once raised supplementary funds from a pension institution. Howard started from the historical average and explained to investors the winning rate of capital injection at this time. As a result, he was repeatedly asked, \"What if the situation was worse?\"</p><p>Obviously, investors at this time no longer care about the historical average performance, and began to pursue 100% certainty in extreme market environments, giving up the most basic odds thinking. No one can guarantee 100% certainty. As a result, Howard failed to raise funds, so he had to supplement the funds out of his own pocket.</p><p>In hindsight, Howard made a lot of money, but he stressed that being correct afterwards did not mean that the decision was 100% correct beforehand. All he can grasp when making decisions is a firm belief in reversion to the mean. He firmly believes that buying at that time will have a very high winning rate.</p><p>For investors,<b>Under no circumstances can you go into a logical dead end because of the extravagance of 100% certainty. What really matters is to always be skeptical. When pessimism breeds greater pessimism, investors need to rely on skepticism to summon optimism; When optimistic situations breed greater optimism, it is also necessary to rely on skepticism to summon pessimism.</b></p><p>Similarly, investors in current A-share sectors such as insurance, when the sector P/E is close to the bottom of history, if they are still struggling with the short-term performance of fundamentals, isn't it unrealistic to pursue 100% certainty? What we really need to do at this time is to embrace skepticism, use skepticism to summon optimism, hold firmly with the belief that \"if we fall too much, we will inevitably rise back\", and even buy against the trend.</p><p><b>The market is sluggish, but it is a friend of value investing</b></p><p>No matter what genre, making money in stock trading is inseparable from four words: buy low and sell high. From the perspective of value investment, the fundamentals corresponding to buying low and selling high must be short-term pessimism and long-term optimism, so as to ensure that the price is low when buying in front and high when selling later. Therefore, the market is sluggish, which is a friend of value investing.</p><p><b>When the stock you hold keeps falling, check its fundamentals and repeatedly judge the medium and long-term development prospects. As long as the medium and long-term prospects are promising and the stock price falls, what falls is a buying opportunity.</b></p><p>So, when you are right, learn to persist and be more patient. Finally, we conclude with an example given by Philip A. Fisher:</p><p>\"We ask a man to look at the moon at 8 o'clock in the evening, and then tell him that with the passage of time, the moon will slide across the sky. He will gaze at the motion of the moon with great interest and concentration, but he can't feel it. So, he just watches it quietly. By 8:02, there was still no change in the position of the moon. After a minute, there was still no movement, and after another minute, everything remained the same, so he had to give up in disappointment. He didn't think it meaningless or worthless. But at 2 o'clock in the morning, when he looked up at the sky again, he found that the magical change that had made him impatient at 8: 04 pm finally appeared. \"</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Good stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGood stocks fall out of the golden pit, why do you choose to cut the meat?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏宁金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 10:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the A-share market has continued to differentiate. The three main lines of consumption, medicine, and technology are still improving, while many other sectors are fluctuating, especially some leading stocks, which are obviously good companies that everyone is optimistic about, but they keep falling. Continue to test investors' confidence.</p><p>Faced with the continuous decline of good stocks, more and more investors choose to cut their meat, because they really can't stand the inner suffering, hoping that after cutting their meat, it will be over. Psychologically, you may get temporary relief, but you can't hold good stocks. In the long run, investing and getting rich will become empty talk.</p><p><b>A-share industry differentiation</b></p><p>Strictly speaking, the bull market since 2019 is only a bull market for some industries, and many industries are in a bear market.</p><p><b>Taking the ten-year trend since 2010 as the measurement range, there are still many industries whose P/E quantile is lower than 10%, that is, the P/E level is lower than 90% of the trading days in the past ten years, and it is at the bottom of the valuation range; At the same time, there are also some industries whose P/E quantile reaches or even exceeds 90%, which is at the top of the valuation range.</b></p><p>On June 23, 2021, the P/E quantiles of the five industries of real estate (0.2%), architectural decoration (1.7%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (5.9%), media (9%), and non-bank finance (9.4%) were all lower than 10%. At the same time, the P/E quantiles of food and beverage (95.1%), leisure services (89.7%), and automobiles (89.7%) were around 90%, showing obvious polarization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5a5386dd588efa779e3aa097423dd6\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Putting aside A-shares, let's first discuss a question from the perspective of investment philosophy. As an investor, do you agree with the following view, that is, in the long run, buying and holding industries with low P/E will significantly perform better than buying and holding industries with high P/E.</p><p>As far as the idea theory is concerned, I believe many investors recognize it. Everyone believes that \"buying at an underestimate and holding it for a long time\" is the only way to make money through investment. This is why many people call themselves value investors.</p><p>But if we return to the reality of A-shares, the current P/E in real estate, architectural decoration, non-bank finance and other industries are at historical lows. Are you willing to buy now and hold it for a long time?</p><p>I believe<b>Once it returns to reality, many people will hesitate, because everyone can easily find a lot of reasons to look down on these industries.</b>For example, in the real estate and building decoration industries, investors will say that the big logic is broken due to factors such as housing for living and not speculation, and the aging population; Another example is the insurance industry. Everyone thinks that the downward trend of long-term interest rates suppresses the investment income of insurance companies, and the Internet makes the competition of insurance products transparent, which will lower the underwriting profits of insurance products, and so on.</p><p>Similarly, from the perspective of investment philosophy, everyone praises Buffett's \"fear when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful\" and deeply agrees with it; However, under the financial crisis in 2008, the stock market fell so hard that people were vomiting. When Buffett issued a document calling on everyone to buy stocks, few people responded, because in the specific market environment at that time, everyone could easily find a bunch of reasons to be bearish.</p><p>It can be seen that buying or holding stocks that are not favored by the market is never easy.</p><p><b>\"This time is different\"</b></p><p>Many investment gurus have said the same thing. The five most expensive words in investment are \"this time is different\".</p><p>The Dutch tulip bubble in the 17th century was the most influential recorded speculative bubble event in human history, and people learned many lessons from it, including that any bubble will burst; In the South China Sea bubble incident 100 years later, investors thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt; Until the Internet speculative bubble in the 1990s, investors still thought that \"this time is different\". As a result, the bubble still burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt.</p><p>This is true during the bubble period, and so is the panic phase.</p><p><b>Talking about ideas in terms of ideas, investors believe in mean reversion, believe that trees will not grow to the sky, believe that others are greedy and I am afraid, and others are afraid and I am greedy; But when returning to investment reality, you can always find various reasons to convince yourself that \"this time is different\" until you pay a huge price.</b>Three or five years later, everyone will forget the lesson again and continue the story of \"this time is different\", repeatedly.</p><p>Only a few people can jump out of this strange circle and maintain stable investment returns for a long time. These investors rely on believing in common sense and mean reversion. Especially at a specific point in time, do not dwell on the optimistic or pessimistic views of the mainstream of the market, but look at the problem from a higher level and a farther perspective, so as to move against the trend. As Peter Lynch put it;</p><p>\"Whenever I feel worried and disappointed about the current big picture, I try to focus on the'even bigger picture '. If you expect yourself to maintain confidence in the stock market, you must understand the concept of'bigger picture'. The'bigger picture 'is to look at the stock market from a longer and longer perspective.\" From this passage, it can be seen that Peter Lynch didn't convince himself from a rational or logical point of view that the current situation was not worthy of worry. On the contrary, he also thought that the situation was worrying and disappointing. In order not to be influenced by this emotion, he used a longer and farther perspective to convince himself not to be afraid.</p><p>In the final analysis,<b>When the market falls into panic, outstanding investors do not refute the market from facts, but broaden their eyes, defeat short-term rationality with long-term rationality, and defeat panic with simple common sense.</b></p><p>Going back to A-shares, if an investor holds insurance stocks, the current P/E of the insurance sector is at the bottom of ten years (0.9%). From the perspective of long-term mean reversion, now is the best time to hold firmly and wait for a reversal. However, if we focus on the fundamentals of the industry, many problems have not been answered in the short term, and there is no hope for the stock price to fall. It seems that \"the bottom of this valuation is different.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c593b63faa09c6219f83f6c2be0f54\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, it is precisely because it is often difficult to make choices purely from the level of logical analysis that investors need to rely on the investment system to assist in decision-making.</p><p><b>Jump out of a logical dead end</b></p><p><b>Any investment system contains many principles of mechanical operation. It is by relying on these principles that investors can jump out of the dead end of logic and grasp the bigger situation.</b></p><p>Under the value investment system, mean reversion is the core belief. When fundamentals and market sentiment are at odds with it, value investors should stand on the side of mean reversion, otherwise they will not be able to have the courage to hold against the trend.</p><p>For example, during the financial crisis in 2008, there was no hope in the fundamentals, and the stock market plummeted. At this time, value investors bought at the bottom, not seeing hope from the Fed's rescue policy, but based on the belief of \"mean reversion\". Mechanical buying. To put it bluntly, it is not because I have a lot of confidence, but purely because the stock market has fallen too badly, so I bought it.</p><p>Howard Marks once recalled this history. He had a product with leverage. At the worst of the crisis, he once raised supplementary funds from a pension institution. Howard started from the historical average and explained to investors the winning rate of capital injection at this time. As a result, he was repeatedly asked, \"What if the situation was worse?\"</p><p>Obviously, investors at this time no longer care about the historical average performance, and began to pursue 100% certainty in extreme market environments, giving up the most basic odds thinking. No one can guarantee 100% certainty. As a result, Howard failed to raise funds, so he had to supplement the funds out of his own pocket.</p><p>In hindsight, Howard made a lot of money, but he stressed that being correct afterwards did not mean that the decision was 100% correct beforehand. All he can grasp when making decisions is a firm belief in reversion to the mean. He firmly believes that buying at that time will have a very high winning rate.</p><p>For investors,<b>Under no circumstances can you go into a logical dead end because of the extravagance of 100% certainty. What really matters is to always be skeptical. When pessimism breeds greater pessimism, investors need to rely on skepticism to summon optimism; When optimistic situations breed greater optimism, it is also necessary to rely on skepticism to summon pessimism.</b></p><p>Similarly, investors in current A-share sectors such as insurance, when the sector P/E is close to the bottom of history, if they are still struggling with the short-term performance of fundamentals, isn't it unrealistic to pursue 100% certainty? What we really need to do at this time is to embrace skepticism, use skepticism to summon optimism, hold firmly with the belief that \"if we fall too much, we will inevitably rise back\", and even buy against the trend.</p><p><b>The market is sluggish, but it is a friend of value investing</b></p><p>No matter what genre, making money in stock trading is inseparable from four words: buy low and sell high. From the perspective of value investment, the fundamentals corresponding to buying low and selling high must be short-term pessimism and long-term optimism, so as to ensure that the price is low when buying in front and high when selling later. Therefore, the market is sluggish, which is a friend of value investing.</p><p><b>When the stock you hold keeps falling, check its fundamentals and repeatedly judge the medium and long-term development prospects. As long as the medium and long-term prospects are promising and the stock price falls, what falls is a buying opportunity.</b></p><p>So, when you are right, learn to persist and be more patient. Finally, we conclude with an example given by Philip A. Fisher:</p><p>\"We ask a man to look at the moon at 8 o'clock in the evening, and then tell him that with the passage of time, the moon will slide across the sky. He will gaze at the motion of the moon with great interest and concentration, but he can't feel it. So, he just watches it quietly. By 8:02, there was still no change in the position of the moon. After a minute, there was still no movement, and after another minute, everything remained the same, so he had to give up in disappointment. He didn't think it meaningless or worthless. But at 2 o'clock in the morning, when he looked up at the sky again, he found that the magical change that had made him impatient at 8: 04 pm finally appeared. \"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2YozTtjsIBm5X9KQ3AmlFg\">苏宁金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2YozTtjsIBm5X9KQ3AmlFg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133732318","content_text":"近期，A股市场持续分化，消费、医药、科技三大主线依旧向好，其他不少板块却震荡不已，尤其是里面一些龙头个股，明明是人人看好的好公司，却跌个不停，持续考验着投资者的信心。\n面对好股票持续下跌，越来越多的投资者选择割肉，因为实在受不了内心煎熬，希望割肉之后一了百了。心理上也许得到一时的解脱，但好股票拿不住，长此以往，投资致富就成了一句空话。\nA股行业大分化\n严格意义上说，2019年以来的牛市，仅是部分行业的牛市，还有很多行业处于熊市行情中。\n以2010年以来的十年走势为计量区间，当前仍有不少行业市盈率的分位值低于10%，即市盈率水平低于十年来90%的交易日，处于估值区间底部；同时，也有一些行业市盈率分位值达到甚至超过90%，处于估值区间顶部。\n2021年6月23日，房地产（0.2%）、建筑装饰（1.7%）、农林牧渔（5.9%）、传媒（9%）、非银金融（9.4%）五个行业的市盈率分位值均低于10%，同时食品饮料（95.1%）、休闲服务（89.7%）、汽车（89.7%）三个行业的市盈率分位值处在90%左右，出现明显的两极分化。\n\n把A股放一边，我们先从投资理念上探讨一个问题，作为投资者，你是否认可以下观点，即：长期来看，买入并持有低市盈率的行业，业绩表现会明显超过买入并持有市盈率处于高位的行业。\n就理念论理念，我相信很多投资者都是认可的，大家都相信“低估买入并长期持有”是投资赚钱的不二法门，这也是很多人自称价值投资者的原因。\n但若我们回归A股现实，当前房地产、建筑装饰、非银金融等行业的市盈率处于历史低位，你是否愿意现在买入并长期持有呢？\n我相信一旦回归现实，很多人会犹豫起来，因为大家能轻易找出一大堆看衰这些行业的理由。比如房地产和建筑装饰业，投资者会说，受房住不炒、人口老龄化等因素影响，大逻辑坏掉了；再比如保险业，大家又认为，长期利率下行压制保险公司投资收益，互联网使保险产品竞争透明化，会拉低保险产品的承保利润，等等。\n同样，从投资理念上，大家对巴菲特的“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪”大加赞赏，深以为然；但2008年金融危机之下，股市跌得令人发吐，巴菲特发文号召大家买入股票时，却响应者寥寥，因为具体到当时的市场环境，大家能轻易找到一堆看空的理由。\n可见，买入或持有不被市场看好的股票，从来就不是一件容易的事。\n“这次不一样”\n很多投资大师说过同样的话，投资中最昂贵的五个字就是“这次不一样”。\n17世纪的荷兰郁金香泡沫是人类历史上有记载的最具影响力的投机泡沫事件，人们从中学到了很多教训，包括任何泡沫都会破灭；100年之后的南海泡沫事件中，投资者认为“这次不一样”，结果泡沫照样破灭，大批投资者破产；一直到上世纪90年代的互联网投机泡沫，投资者依旧认为“这次不一样”，结果依旧是泡沫破灭，大批投资者破产。\n泡沫期如此，恐慌阶段也是如此。\n就理念谈理念，投资者相信均值回归，相信树不会长到天上，相信别人贪婪我恐惧、别人恐惧我贪婪；但回到投资现实时，总是能找到各种理由来说服自己，相信“这次不一样”，直至付出巨大代价。三五年后，大家又会忘记教训，继续着“这次不一样”的故事，周而复始。\n只有少数人能跳出这个怪圈，得以长期保持稳健的投资收益，这些投资者依靠的就是相信常识、相信均值回归。尤其在特定的时间点，不纠结于市场主流的乐观或悲观见解，而是从更高的层面、更远的视角来看问题，做到逆势而动。正如彼得·林奇所说：\n\n “每当我对目前的大局（big picture）感到忧虑和失望时，我就会努力让自己关注于‘更大的大局’（even bigger picture）。如果你期望自己能够对股市保持信心的话，你就一定要了解‘更大的大局’这个概念。‘更大的大局’是从更长更远的眼光来看股市。”\n\n从这段话里可以看出，彼得·林奇并非从理性或逻辑的角度说服自己当前局势不值得忧虑，相反，他也认为局面令人感到忧虑和失望，只是为不受这种情绪影响，他用更长更远的视角来说服自己不恐惧。\n归根结底，当市场陷入恐慌情绪时，卓越的投资者们并非从事实上去驳倒市场，而是把眼光拉长，用长期理性战胜短期理性，用简单常识战胜恐慌情绪。\n回到A股，如果一个投资者持有保险股，当前保险板块市盈率处于十年来历史底部（0.9%）。站在长期均值回归的视角，现在正是坚定持有、等待反转的最佳时点，但如果着眼于行业基本面，很多难题短期内还未见答案，股价阴跌还看不到希望，似乎“这次的估值底部不一样”。\n\n事实上，正是因为很多时候纯粹从逻辑分析层面不好抉择，投资者才需要依靠投资体系辅助决策。\n跳出逻辑死胡同\n任何一个投资体系，都含有很多机械操作的原则，正是依靠这些原则，投资者才得以从逻辑的死胡同中跳脱出来，把握更大的大局。\n在价值投资体系下，均值回归是最核心的信念，当基本面、市场情绪与之相左时，价值投资者应站在均值回归这一边，否则便不可能拥有逆势持有的勇气。\n比如2008年金融危机时，基本面看不到希望，股市更是一泻千里，此时的价值投资者抄底买入，并非从美联储救市政策中看到了希望，而是基于“均值回归”信念进行的机械式买入。说白了，并非因为本身产生了多大的信心，纯粹是因为股市跌得太惨了，所以出手买入。\n霍华德·马克斯曾回忆这段历史，他有一只产品带有杠杆，危机最严重的时候，他曾经向一家养老金机构募集补充资金。霍华德从历史均值出发，向投资者解释此时注资的胜率，结果被一再追问“如果情况更糟一些呢”。\n显然，此时的投资者已不在乎历史平均表现，在极端市场环境下开始追求100%的确定性，放弃了最基本的赔率思维。没有人能保证100%的确定性，结果霍华德募资失败，只好自掏腰包补充资金。\n事后来看，霍华德赚得盘满钵满，但他却强调，事后正确不代表事前决策100%地正确。他决策时所能把握的，只是对均值回归的坚定信念，他坚信当时买入会有极高的胜率。\n对投资者而言，任何情况下都不能因奢求100%的确定性而走入逻辑的死胡同，真正重要的是始终保持怀疑主义。当悲观情绪滋生更大的悲观情绪时，投资者需依靠怀疑主义来召唤乐观主义；当乐观情况滋生更大的乐观情绪时，也需要依靠怀疑主义来召唤悲观主义。\n同样，当前A股诸如保险等板块的投资者，在板块市盈率接近历史底部时，若还在纠结基本面的短期表现，何尝不是不切实际地追求100%的确定性呢。此时真正要做的是拥抱怀疑主义，用怀疑主义来召唤乐观主义，抱着“跌多了必然涨回去”的信念坚定持有，甚至逆势买入。\n行情低迷，是价值投资的朋友\n无论什么流派，炒股赚钱都离不开四个字：低买高卖。站在价值投资的角度看，低买高卖对应的基本面必然是短期悲观、长期看好，这样才能确保前面买入时价格低，后面卖出时价格高。所以，行情低迷，是价值投资的朋友。\n当你持有的股票跌跌不休时，检查其基本面，反复研判其中长期发展前景，只要中长期前景看好，股价下跌，跌出来的正是买入机会。\n所以，当你是对的时候，要学会坚持，多点耐心。最后，我们用菲利普·A·费雪举过的一个例子作为结束：\n\n “我们让一个人在晚上8时的时候去看看月亮，然后告诉他，随着时间的流逝，月亮会滑过天空。他会兴味盎然、聚精会神地去凝视月亮的运动，但却无法感受到月亮的运动。于是，他就这样凝神静气地看下去。\n\n\n 到了8时零2分，仍然看不到月亮的位置有什么变化。过了1分钟，还是没有任何动静，又过了1分钟，一切依然如故，于是他只好失望地放弃。\n\n\n 他觉得这种事没有任何意义，也没有任何价值。\n\n\n 但到了凌晨2时，再次仰望天空的他，却发现晚上8时零4分曾经让他等得不耐烦的神奇变化终于出现了。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Now market sell covered call and sell put every week better [LOL] slowly slowly gain","text":"Now market sell covered call and sell put every week better [LOL] slowly slowly gain","html":"Now market sell covered call and sell put every week better [LOL] slowly slowly gain"},{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Short those who have gone through a lot of times, don't guess the roof, look at the candle before going to the air, or fall to the force position. Stop putting it on the previous one, or, every time I make a short, I make a backhand long, and I always make a long list of sohai haha","text":"Short those who have gone through a lot of times, don't guess the roof, look at the candle before going to the air, or fall to the force position. Stop putting it on the previous one, or, every time I make a short, I make a backhand long, and I always make a long list of sohai haha","html":"Short those who have gone through a lot of times, don't guess the roof, look at the candle before going to the air, or fall to the force position. Stop putting it on the previous one, or, every time I make a short, I make a backhand long, and I always make a long list of sohai haha"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168159356,"gmtCreate":1623967743375,"gmtModify":1703824732520,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168159356","repostId":"1119601826","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"This is what letters i hv","text":"This is what letters i hv","html":"This is what letters i hv"},{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Hoseh, dishwashing power","text":"Hoseh, dishwashing power","html":"Hoseh, dishwashing power"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372641195,"gmtCreate":1619213705317,"gmtModify":1704721287421,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372641195","repostId":"1195038827","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Bro response on my comment thanks","text":"Bro response on my comment thanks","html":"Bro response on my comment thanks"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346444243,"gmtCreate":1618107109182,"gmtModify":1704706648923,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346444243","repostId":"1180899373","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180899373","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618036472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180899373?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-10 14:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Yao Jinbo called for a fine of 4 billion for Keike, and attached a screenshot of his \"choose one\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180899373","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"安居客董事会主席姚劲波在个人官方微博发文，“在房产交易领域有更明目张胆的二选一包装成自愿，强烈呼吁国家反垄断罚款贝壳40亿（4%标准）。并建议将此罚款打入国家公积金账户，以降低公积金贷款利率减轻老百姓","content":"<p>Yao Jinbo, chairman of the board of directors of Anjuke, posted on his official Weibo, \"In the field of real estate transactions, there are more blatant choices packaged as voluntary, strongly calling for the state to impose anti-monopoly fines<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>4 billion (4% standard). It is also suggested that this fine be credited to the national provident fund account to reduce the interest rate of provident fund loans and reduce the burden of ordinary people on buying houses. \"</p><p>He said, \"58 Anjuke will fully enter the field of new house transactions as a challenger this year, hoping that healthy competition will make the industry fairer and make it easier for ordinary people to buy houses.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5269c6ff38f6200dee3e500522461ec\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yao Jinbo called for a fine of 4 billion for Keike, and attached a screenshot of his \"choose one\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYao Jinbo called for a fine of 4 billion for Keike, and attached a screenshot of his \"choose one\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-10 14:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yao Jinbo, chairman of the board of directors of Anjuke, posted on his official Weibo, \"In the field of real estate transactions, there are more blatant choices packaged as voluntary, strongly calling for the state to impose anti-monopoly fines<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>4 billion (4% standard). It is also suggested that this fine be credited to the national provident fund account to reduce the interest rate of provident fund loans and reduce the burden of ordinary people on buying houses. \"</p><p>He said, \"58 Anjuke will fully enter the field of new house transactions as a challenger this year, hoping that healthy competition will make the industry fairer and make it easier for ordinary people to buy houses.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5269c6ff38f6200dee3e500522461ec\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/678e3e3f546f3c7bbf731d45570008e4","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180899373","content_text":"安居客董事会主席姚劲波在个人官方微博发文，“在房产交易领域有更明目张胆的二选一包装成自愿，强烈呼吁国家反垄断罚款贝壳40亿（4%标准）。并建议将此罚款打入国家公积金账户，以降低公积金贷款利率减轻老百姓买房负担。”他表示，“58安居客今年将作为挑战者全面进入新房交易领域，希望良性竞争能让行业更公平，老百姓买房更简单。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Bro reply thx","text":"Bro reply thx","html":"Bro reply thx"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184884082,"gmtCreate":1623706956046,"gmtModify":1704208985757,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184884082","repostId":"1109157353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150773864,"gmtCreate":1624929468758,"gmtModify":1703848127385,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150773864","repostId":"1104770632","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Sohai one day up one day down","text":"Sohai one day up one day down","html":"Sohai one day up one day down"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350448325,"gmtCreate":1616278139767,"gmtModify":1704792545644,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350448325","repostId":"2120223114","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Reply bro","text":"Reply bro","html":"Reply bro"},{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Reply bro","text":"Reply bro","html":"Reply bro"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198344629,"gmtCreate":1620940434961,"gmtModify":1704350708610,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198344629","repostId":"1162795644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162795644","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620919056,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162795644?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed is no longer a \"control freak\" and active investment strategies become more profitable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162795644","media":"金十数据","summary":"当美联储的政策开始变得被动时，投资者只能采取更主动的投资态度。","content":"<p>Author: Lin Mochou</p><p>In the past decade, simple investment methods have actually yielded returns. Assets under passive management increased fivefold, and the gains were considerable, while most assets under actively management suffered losses. In the United States, less than 20% of actively managed funds outperform passive index funds.</p><p>But passive investment methods are soon becoming obsolete, and the central bank is encouraging investors to adopt more aggressive investment behavior. The European Central Bank is under scrutiny, while the Federal Reserve is starting to shape policy by analyzing real data rather than by forecasting it.<b><u>When the Fed's policy begins to become reactive, investors can only adopt a more proactive investment attitude.</u></b></p><p>In the past decade, the central bank has determined the market investment trend: monetary policy determines the return on assets, and investors are used to making investment decisions according to the central bank policy. Since the central bank will do everything it can to protect the stock market, and it is doing a good job, why bother to do market analysis? For this reason, investing directly tracking the index has yielded considerable gains.</p><p>However, since the beginning of the year, the dovish Fed, the European Central Bank, and other central banks' policies have been questioned and have brought interest rate volatility. This makes the way to invest passively less straightforward than before.</p><p>There is a very obvious question in the market: Why is the Federal Reserve still buying $1.2 billion in bonds every month?</p><p>The plan was to deal with COVID-19 pandemic at the time, but we are now seeing its remarkable results. The unemployment rate in the United States has dropped from 15% to 6%, which is only 2% higher than the unemployment rate before the pandemic. Global manufacturing output is at its highest level in a decade, and household savings levels are double or even triple what they were before the pandemic.</p><p>At the start of the year, inflation expectations and high interest rates sent investors dumping bonds. Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's insistence on no rate hike, arguing that the current inflation level is \"far from the target\", this has caused the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to soar from 1% to 1.5% in just six weeks.</p><p>Of course, the Fed is reluctant to turn hawkish too quickly. In 2013, market panic spread after the Federal Reserve tightened policy, so that in the end the Federal Reserve released liquidity instead. Moreover, the jury is still inconclusive as to how the service sector will recover. The economic recession brought about by COVID-19 pandemic is different from the past, and its negative impact on the service industry (such as catering industry, film industry, etc.) will last longer.</p><p>However, the market is not satisfied with the above reasons. Although Powell claimed that rate hike will have to wait until at least 2024, the economy is now recovering faster than expected, and traders expect the Fed to start a rate hike in 2022. This market expectation is reflected in the pricing of Eurodollar and federal funds futures, which track the expected short-term interest rate. Correspondingly, the banking sector (the ultimate beneficiary of rising interest rates) has risen very strongly, already 20% higher than the S&P 500 this year.</p><p>Investors seem to be \"confronting\" the central bank, which weakens the central bank's control over the stock market, thus reducing the effectiveness of passive investment. \"Fed Put\" means believing that the Federal Reserve is already prepared, and the implementation of rescuing the market when the market falls sharply will only be effective when the Federal Reserve can control the stock market.</p><p>The market's reaction to Treasury Secretary Yellen's comments took an interesting twist. Yellen claimed that to ensure that the economy doesn't overheat, interest rates must be raised a bit. The comments spooked the market, and technology stocks in the United States are sensitive to interest rates, and expectations of higher interest rates triggered a large sell-off in technology stocks. This further confirms investors' inference that interest rates will rise earlier than the Fed has conveyed.</p><p><b>If interest rates are destined to rise, then the investment of passive stock index tracking loses its appeal.</b></p><p><b><u>This means that the future investment approach needs to be more proactive, that is, the investment potential of individual stocks needs to be studied instead of directly tracking the index. This requires investors to have a deep understanding of the company's financial situation.</u></b></p><p>Active investing links a company's business model to its stock price. In the long run, a company's stock price will depend on the compound annual growth rate of its operating profit. Active investors are likely to profit when company earnings are higher than stock price growth, because this usually leads to sequential earnings growth and stronger returns. Regardless of the value of future cash flows, investors must weigh rising interest rate costs against the company's potential earnings growth.</p><p>Investors who have followed central bank policies over the past decade have been rewarded more lucratively. This kind of passive investment is simple but effective, while active investment \"gives up an entire forest for a tree\". However, today's shift in the role of central banks and investors will change this situation.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed is no longer a \"control freak\" and active investment strategies become more profitable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed is no longer a \"control freak\" and active investment strategies become more profitable\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Lin Mochou</p><p>In the past decade, simple investment methods have actually yielded returns. Assets under passive management increased fivefold, and the gains were considerable, while most assets under actively management suffered losses. In the United States, less than 20% of actively managed funds outperform passive index funds.</p><p>But passive investment methods are soon becoming obsolete, and the central bank is encouraging investors to adopt more aggressive investment behavior. The European Central Bank is under scrutiny, while the Federal Reserve is starting to shape policy by analyzing real data rather than by forecasting it.<b><u>When the Fed's policy begins to become reactive, investors can only adopt a more proactive investment attitude.</u></b></p><p>In the past decade, the central bank has determined the market investment trend: monetary policy determines the return on assets, and investors are used to making investment decisions according to the central bank policy. Since the central bank will do everything it can to protect the stock market, and it is doing a good job, why bother to do market analysis? For this reason, investing directly tracking the index has yielded considerable gains.</p><p>However, since the beginning of the year, the dovish Fed, the European Central Bank, and other central banks' policies have been questioned and have brought interest rate volatility. This makes the way to invest passively less straightforward than before.</p><p>There is a very obvious question in the market: Why is the Federal Reserve still buying $1.2 billion in bonds every month?</p><p>The plan was to deal with COVID-19 pandemic at the time, but we are now seeing its remarkable results. The unemployment rate in the United States has dropped from 15% to 6%, which is only 2% higher than the unemployment rate before the pandemic. Global manufacturing output is at its highest level in a decade, and household savings levels are double or even triple what they were before the pandemic.</p><p>At the start of the year, inflation expectations and high interest rates sent investors dumping bonds. Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's insistence on no rate hike, arguing that the current inflation level is \"far from the target\", this has caused the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to soar from 1% to 1.5% in just six weeks.</p><p>Of course, the Fed is reluctant to turn hawkish too quickly. In 2013, market panic spread after the Federal Reserve tightened policy, so that in the end the Federal Reserve released liquidity instead. Moreover, the jury is still inconclusive as to how the service sector will recover. The economic recession brought about by COVID-19 pandemic is different from the past, and its negative impact on the service industry (such as catering industry, film industry, etc.) will last longer.</p><p>However, the market is not satisfied with the above reasons. Although Powell claimed that rate hike will have to wait until at least 2024, the economy is now recovering faster than expected, and traders expect the Fed to start a rate hike in 2022. This market expectation is reflected in the pricing of Eurodollar and federal funds futures, which track the expected short-term interest rate. Correspondingly, the banking sector (the ultimate beneficiary of rising interest rates) has risen very strongly, already 20% higher than the S&P 500 this year.</p><p>Investors seem to be \"confronting\" the central bank, which weakens the central bank's control over the stock market, thus reducing the effectiveness of passive investment. \"Fed Put\" means believing that the Federal Reserve is already prepared, and the implementation of rescuing the market when the market falls sharply will only be effective when the Federal Reserve can control the stock market.</p><p>The market's reaction to Treasury Secretary Yellen's comments took an interesting twist. Yellen claimed that to ensure that the economy doesn't overheat, interest rates must be raised a bit. The comments spooked the market, and technology stocks in the United States are sensitive to interest rates, and expectations of higher interest rates triggered a large sell-off in technology stocks. This further confirms investors' inference that interest rates will rise earlier than the Fed has conveyed.</p><p><b>If interest rates are destined to rise, then the investment of passive stock index tracking loses its appeal.</b></p><p><b><u>This means that the future investment approach needs to be more proactive, that is, the investment potential of individual stocks needs to be studied instead of directly tracking the index. This requires investors to have a deep understanding of the company's financial situation.</u></b></p><p>Active investing links a company's business model to its stock price. In the long run, a company's stock price will depend on the compound annual growth rate of its operating profit. Active investors are likely to profit when company earnings are higher than stock price growth, because this usually leads to sequential earnings growth and stronger returns. Regardless of the value of future cash flows, investors must weigh rising interest rate costs against the company's potential earnings growth.</p><p>Investors who have followed central bank policies over the past decade have been rewarded more lucratively. This kind of passive investment is simple but effective, while active investment \"gives up an entire forest for a tree\". However, today's shift in the role of central banks and investors will change this situation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74478\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74478","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162795644","content_text":"作者：林莫愁\n在过去十年中，简单的投资方式反而能够获得收益。被动管理之下的资产增长了五倍，收益可观，而大部分主动管理的资产则遭受亏损。在美国，只有不到20%的主动管理型基金收益超过了被动指数型基金。\n但被动投资方法很快就要过时了，央行正鼓励投资者采取更加积极的投资行为。欧洲央行正在接受审查，而美联储开始通过分析真实数据而不是通过预测数据来制定政策。当美联储的政策开始变得被动时，投资者只能采取更主动的投资态度。\n过去十年一直是央行决定市场投资动向：货币政策决定了资产回报率，投资者习惯了根据央行政策来做出投资决策。既然央行会竭尽所能去保护股市，而且它也做得很好，那为什么还要费尽心思地去做市场分析呢？正因如此，直接跟踪指数进行投资产生了可观的收益。\n然而，自今年年初以来，美联储鸽派、欧洲央行以及其他央行的政策一直备受质疑，并带来了利率波动。这使得被动投资的方式没有之前那么简单了。\n市场存在着一个非常显而易见的问题：为什么美联储每个月还在购买12亿美元的债券？\n这个计划是为了应对当时的新冠疫情，但是我们现在已经看到了它的显著成果。美国失业率已经从15%降至6%，这仅仅比疫情前的失业率高出2%。全球制造业产量达到了十年来的最高水平，家庭储蓄水平也是疫情前的两倍甚至三倍。\n今年年初，通胀预期和高利率让投资者纷纷抛售债券。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔坚持不加息，认为目前的通胀水平离目标“还有很大距离”，但这还是导致美国10年期国债收益率在短短六周的时间内从1%飙升至1.5%。\n当然，美联储也不愿意过快转变成鹰派态度。2013年时，市场的恐慌情绪在美联储实行收紧政策后蔓延，以至于最后美联储反而放开了流动性。此外，关于服务业将会如何复苏仍未有定论。新冠疫情带来的经济衰退与往前不同，它对于服务业（如餐饮业、电影业等）的负面影响会持续更久。\n然而，市场却不满足于上述理由。尽管鲍威尔声称加息至少要等到2024年，但现在经济复苏快于预期，交易员们预期在2022年美联储就会开始加息。这种市场预期均反应在了欧洲美元以及联邦基金期货的定价上，它们追踪的都是预期短期利率。与此相对应，银行板块（利率上升的最终受益者）的涨势非常强劲，今年已经比标普500指数高出了20%。\n投资者似乎要与央行“对着干”，这削弱了央行对于股市的控制，从而减少了被动投资的有效性。“美联储看跌期权（Fed Put）”，即相信美联储早已做好准备，在市场剧烈下跌时出手救市的实施也要在美联储能够控制股市时才有效。\n市场对财政部长耶伦言论的反应发生了一个有趣的转折。耶伦声称为了保证经济不会过热，利率必须提高一些。这番言论吓坏了市场，美国的科技股对利率很敏感，利率提高的预期引发了科技股的大量抛售。这进一步印证了投资者的推断：利率上升会比美联储传达的来得更早。\n如果利率注定要提高，那么被动跟踪股指的投资便失去了它的吸引力。\n这意味着未来的投资方式需要更主动，即需要研究单只股票的投资潜力，而不是直接跟踪指数。这需要投资者对公司的财务情况有深刻认识。\n主动投资把公司的商业模式和股价联系了起来。长期来看，一家公司的股价将会取决于它营业利润的年复合增长率。当公司盈利高于股价增长时，主动投资者便有可能获利，因为这通常会导致盈利的连续增长和更强劲的回报率。先不论未来现金流的价值，投资者必须在上升的利率成本与公司潜在的盈利增长之间进行权衡。\n过去十年随央行政策而动的投资者得到了更丰厚的回报。这种被动投资虽然简单却有效，而主动投资却“为了一棵树放弃了整片森林”。然而，如今央行与投资者角色的转换将改变这种情况。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"But when is the dip? Deeper and Deeper [Cry]","text":"But when is the dip? Deeper and Deeper [Cry]","html":"But when is the dip? Deeper and Deeper [Cry]"},{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Buy the dip bro","text":"Buy the dip bro","html":"Buy the dip bro"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349860196,"gmtCreate":1617588825615,"gmtModify":1704700606103,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349860196","repostId":"2124275783","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124121799,"gmtCreate":1624754683111,"gmtModify":1703844391717,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124121799","repostId":"1181161116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181161116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754107,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181161116?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"International oil prices are \"triumphing\", and the market is waiting for next week's OPEC + meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181161116","media":"期货日报","summary":"本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货","content":"<p><div>This week, affected by the continued rise in international oil prices, energy and chemical futures varieties have strengthened significantly, but the trends of various varieties among sectors have diverged. Among them, LPG and asphalt futures are on the stronger side. \"Compared with crude oil, asphalt has been in a weak state this year, mainly due to major problems with its own fundamentals.\" Zhaojin Futures analyst Yu Yusen told a reporter from Futures Daily that the operating rate of the asphalt industry has not exceeded last year, or even lower than the same period in previous years, demand has not been started, and inventories are approaching historical highs in the past eight years. According to Yu Yusen, it is still in the rainy season, the actual demand for asphalt is weak, and the inventory is also in the fourth quarter...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"qihuoribao","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>International oil prices are \"triumphing\", and the market is waiting for next week's OPEC + meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInternational oil prices are \"triumphing\", and the market is waiting for next week's OPEC + meeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期货日报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>This week, affected by the continued rise in international oil prices, energy and chemical futures varieties have strengthened significantly, but the trends of various varieties among sectors have diverged. Among them, LPG and asphalt futures are on the stronger side. \"Compared with crude oil, asphalt has been in a weak state this year, mainly due to major problems with its own fundamentals.\" Zhaojin Futures analyst Yu Yusen told a reporter from Futures Daily that the operating rate of the asphalt industry has not exceeded last year, or even lower than the same period in previous years, demand has not been started, and inventories are approaching historical highs in the past eight years. According to Yu Yusen, it is still in the rainy season, the actual demand for asphalt is weak, and the inventory is also in the fourth quarter...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">期货日报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181161116","content_text":"本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货分析师于竼森告诉期货日报记者，沥青行业的开工率并没有超越去年，甚至比往年同期还要偏低，需求一直未能启动，且库存逼近近8年来的历史高位。\n在于竼森看来，当前仍处于雨季，沥青的实际需求偏弱，库存也在4季度前很难出现下滑，因此沥青期货本周的强势上涨，更多是受油价上涨的影响，成本提高推动沥青价格上涨。\n此外，消息面的利好来自于市场关于国家针对地炼企业原油配额缩减问题的解读。部分机构认为，国家今年1—2批次进口原油配额相对去年有了明显的缩量，叠加前期针对稀释沥青的加税问题，会造成地炼企业原材料价格上涨及原材料紧缺，从而导致后期的沥青产量会有所下滑。那么在旺季来临之后，沥青可能会面临比较快速的去库存，而不是前期预期的全年都处于高库存之下。\n尽管沥青本周表现极为强势，远强于其他油品。但有业内人士认为沥青盘面明显超涨，后期走势可能相对于其他油品更弱。\n过去一周，随着市场逐步认识到“稀释沥青”可能长期短缺的问题，对于远期沥青炼厂供应产生担忧，市场看多情绪加重。但在国泰君安期货分析师黄柳楠看来，短期交易视角不应过分聚焦远期市场。“当前山东地区现货对于沥青期货主力合约2109合约的贴水已经超过300元/吨，无风险套利窗口大幅敞开，且沥青与高、低硫燃料油的价差也逼近今年以来的高位，估值已经偏高。”\n“从供需面看，当前绝对库存依旧处于历史最高位，未来2个月不太可能出现缺货的情况，因此沥青利润修复的驱动并不强。”黄柳楠表示，由于今年国内信用扩张停滞，基建工程减少，未来2个月需求端可能不会有逆季节性的扩张，近两日盘面超涨的溢价可能在未来逐步回吐。“考虑到油价下半年重心上移的确定性，沥青价格未来挑战4000元/吨的可能性依旧较大，只是短期背离油价的强势难以持续。”\n值得注意的是，本周LPG期货价格连创新高。东证期货衍生品研究院大宗商品研究主管金晓告诉期货日报记者，一方面，受益于油价持续上涨，相应抬升了LPG期价中枢。另一方面，海外LPG掉期价格在沙特传出出口收紧的消息刺激下一路狂奔。“即将出台的7月沙特CP丙烷价格预计会超过620美元/吨，较上月大涨近100美元/吨，未来进口成本增加的预期是近期国内期价上行的重要驱动。”\nLPG消费本身有一定的季节性，随着主力合约从淡季逐渐转入旺季，市场对旺季抱有期待，乐观情绪在市场中占主导。\n在金晓看来，LPG基本面预期较好。从最新的气象预测来看今年秋冬大概率是中性状态，在12月前后有略超50%的概率转为拉尼娜，未来随着天气转冷燃料消费将有正常的季节性回升。在化工原料需求上，今年全年国内预计有4套PDH新装置投产，此外还有一些可灵活切换原料的乙烯裂解新装置未来可以消化前端炼能扩张带来的LPG国产气增量。“总体上，国内需求增速快于供给增速。这部分需求缺口会对应到国内的进口气增量，是全球需求增量的重要组成部分，亚洲地区LPG价格受到支撑，对国内也意味着进口成本相比去年同期易涨难跌。”\n不过，目前LPG基本面国内外分化的格局短期内仍将持续。据国投安信期货分析师李祖智介绍，国内市场受广州疫情和国产气外放压力增长的影响，价格已显疲态，终端销售压力不断放大。但国际市场方面，美国库存维持低位，而中东短期内增产预期仍不明朗，年内主要潜在供给增量的伊朗也因谈判节奏放缓而有所推迟，国际市场紧平衡格局下的推高动力仍然存在。“在市场格局暂无拐点迹象，同时原油强势的背景下，盘面仍有一定上涨空间。”\n“LPG期价从半年度的时间维度上我们觉得上方仍有空间但过程可能会波折。”金晓认为，由于这一轮海外价格是偏事件驱动的推涨，目前LPG期价位置相对高位，短期要防范沙特消息反转供给边际宽松的回调风险。未来供需基本面环比改善预期可能是直到旺季前半段市场的主要交易逻辑。\n业内人士建议投资者关注下周即将举行的OPEC+会议，这是当前能化市场当前关注的焦点。如果增产幅度超出预期，油价回调的可能性依旧存在，也将一定程度上影响能化板块其他品种的价格走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DUG":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"The current market is really contradictory. Too many people feel guilty and want to sell. If they fall, they want to take a long-term line and can't do it. [LOL], [LOL] and [LOL]","text":"The current market is really contradictory. Too many people feel guilty and want to sell. If they fall, they want to take a long-term line and can't do it. [LOL], [LOL] and [LOL]","html":"The current market is really contradictory. Too many people feel guilty and want to sell. If they fall, they want to take a long-term line and can't do it. [LOL], [LOL] and [LOL]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136183539,"gmtCreate":1621999241421,"gmtModify":1704365796819,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136183539","repostId":"1106894116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106894116","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621999122,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106894116?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 11:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Onshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106894116","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据中国货币网报价，在岸人民币兑美元升破6.4关口，为2018年6月来首次。","content":"<p>According to the quotation of China Money Network, the onshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Onshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOnshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-26 11:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to the quotation of China Money Network, the onshore RMB rose above the 6.4 mark against the US dollar for the first time since June 2018.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d1fa6e9b69c5975060146f6c797ee5","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106894116","content_text":"据中国货币网报价，在岸人民币兑美元升破6.4关口，为2018年6月来首次。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USDCNYmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381764561,"gmtCreate":1612991051253,"gmtModify":1704877100582,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Quest","listText":"Quest","text":"Quest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381764561","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574500206068120","idStr":"3574500206068120"},"content":"Comment my post pls thank you","text":"Comment my post pls thank you","html":"Comment my post pls thank you"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354310038,"gmtCreate":1617141546624,"gmtModify":1704696270282,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354310038","repostId":"2123421823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112157179,"gmtCreate":1622857407491,"gmtModify":1704192504043,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112157179","repostId":"2141400304","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141400304","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622854462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141400304?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 08:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Microsoft's $16 billion acquisition of Nuance has received US antitrust approval","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141400304","media":"新浪科技","summary":"北京时间6月5日上午消息，据报道，根据最近人工智能与语音技术公司Nuance向政府提交的文件，微软收购Nuance的这笔交易，已经获得美国的反垄断许可。今年四月份，微软正式公开了这笔160亿美元的交易","content":"<p>On the morning of June 5, Beijing time, it was reported that according to documents recently submitted to the government by Nuance, an artificial intelligence and voice technology company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The acquisition of Nuance has obtained an antitrust license from the United States.</p><p>In April this year, Microsoft officially announced the $16 billion deal. Prior to this, the two companies had cooperated on automated medical management work (such as file archiving, etc.) in 2019.</p><p>In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, Nuance said the deadline for the U.S. government to file objections to the deal is June 1. Nuance said the expiration of that date \"satisfies one of the conditions for closing the transaction.\"</p><p>A Microsoft spokesperson previously said in a statement that regulators in other jurisdictions are reviewing the acquisition and expect the deal to be completed by the end of 2021.</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft's $16 billion acquisition of Nuance has received US antitrust approval</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft's $16 billion acquisition of Nuance has received US antitrust approval\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the morning of June 5, Beijing time, it was reported that according to documents recently submitted to the government by Nuance, an artificial intelligence and voice technology company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The acquisition of Nuance has obtained an antitrust license from the United States.</p><p>In April this year, Microsoft officially announced the $16 billion deal. Prior to this, the two companies had cooperated on automated medical management work (such as file archiving, etc.) in 2019.</p><p>In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, Nuance said the deadline for the U.S. government to file objections to the deal is June 1. Nuance said the expiration of that date \"satisfies one of the conditions for closing the transaction.\"</p><p>A Microsoft spokesperson previously said in a statement that regulators in other jurisdictions are reviewing the acquisition and expect the deal to be completed by the end of 2021.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gj/2021-06-05/detail-ikqcfnaz9207589.d.html?vt=4\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055c7812061d918cb8dbc486a1ec6b48","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gj/2021-06-05/detail-ikqcfnaz9207589.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141400304","content_text":"北京时间6月5日上午消息，据报道，根据最近人工智能与语音技术公司Nuance向政府提交的文件，微软收购Nuance的这笔交易，已经获得美国的反垄断许可。今年四月份，微软正式公开了这笔160亿美元的交易。在此之前，两家公司已经在2019年就自动化医疗管理工作（比如文件归档等）进行合作。在周五提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件中，Nuance表示，美国政府对该交易提出反对的截止日期为6月1日。Nuance称，该日期到期“满足了完成交易的条件之一”。微软发言人之前在一份声明中表示，其他司法管辖区的监管机构正在审查这笔收购交易，并预期交易将于2021年底完成。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118706512,"gmtCreate":1622760522336,"gmtModify":1704190480122,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118706512","repostId":"1135014295","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135014295","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622735206,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135014295?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 23:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Biden changed his mouth! Without raising corporate taxes, the three major US stock indexes collectively rebounded","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135014295","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四晚间消息，美国总统拜登在周三的一次非公开会议上表示，将对他的税收提案进行重大修改，以赢得共和党对其1万亿美元基础设施一揽子计划的支持。拜登的税收新计划似乎不会提高最高企业税率。据一位不愿透露姓名的","content":"<p>Thursday night news,<b>President Joe Biden said in a closed meeting on Wednesday that he would make major changes to his tax proposal to win Republican support for his $1 trillion infrastructure package.</b>Biden's new tax plan doesn't appear to raise the top corporate tax rate. According to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named,<b>Biden's proposed corporate tax floor of 15% is intended to be imposed on dozens of U.S. companies that pay little to no tax annually to the federal government.</b></p><p>Biden's new proposal amounts to a major concession after proposing to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. The two sides are scheduled to meet again on Friday to discuss.</p><p>Affected by this news, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded, and the Dow turned higher during the session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea875c04d97b05af2b4acfede7ef85d1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden changed his mouth! Without raising corporate taxes, the three major US stock indexes collectively rebounded</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden changed his mouth! Without raising corporate taxes, the three major US stock indexes collectively rebounded\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-03 23:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thursday night news,<b>President Joe Biden said in a closed meeting on Wednesday that he would make major changes to his tax proposal to win Republican support for his $1 trillion infrastructure package.</b>Biden's new tax plan doesn't appear to raise the top corporate tax rate. According to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named,<b>Biden's proposed corporate tax floor of 15% is intended to be imposed on dozens of U.S. companies that pay little to no tax annually to the federal government.</b></p><p>Biden's new proposal amounts to a major concession after proposing to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. The two sides are scheduled to meet again on Friday to discuss.</p><p>Affected by this news, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded, and the Dow turned higher during the session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea875c04d97b05af2b4acfede7ef85d1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bb8e90cfe187914a988d67a8c088582","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135014295","content_text":"周四晚间消息，美国总统拜登在周三的一次非公开会议上表示，将对他的税收提案进行重大修改，以赢得共和党对其1万亿美元基础设施一揽子计划的支持。拜登的税收新计划似乎不会提高最高企业税率。据一位不愿透露姓名的知情人士透露，拜登建议公司税的下限为15%，旨在对数十家每年向联邦政府支付很少甚至不支付任何税收的美国公司征收。拜登的新提议相当于一个重大让步，此前拜登提出将公司税率从21%提高至28%。双方定于周五再次会面讨论。受此消息影响，美股三大股指回升，道指盘中转涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195425334,"gmtCreate":1621309738128,"gmtModify":1704355566994,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gg","listText":"Gg","text":"Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195425334","repostId":"2136578469","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136578469","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621302985,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2136578469?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 09:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night, a small data caused a huge shock, and Wall Street was facing an enemy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136578469","media":"智通财经","summary":"周一，一个小数据引发了全球市场的巨震。\n从财经日程上看，原本周一没有什么特别需要关注的大事，但一个数据的公布改写了市场走势。\n数据显示，5月纽约制造业指数从一个月前的26.3降至24.3，虽然有所下降","content":"<p>On Monday, a small data triggered a huge shock in global markets.</p><p>From the perspective of the financial agenda, there was no major event that needed special attention on Monday, but the release of a data rewrote the market trend.</p><p>The data showed that the new york manufacturing index fell to 24.3 in May from 26.3 a month ago. Although it declined, it was higher than the market expectation of 23.9. The usage of this data is different from that of manufacturing PMI. Higher than \"0\" indicates that the industry is in a state of expansion. Overall, this is an optimistic report, but the breakdown data of this report has aroused traders' concerns-</p><p>1) The paid price index rose 8.8 points to 83.5, the highest point since data became available in 2001. The charge price index climbed 2.2 points to 37.1, also hitting a new high. (Firms pay higher prices for raw materials, but also charge higher prices)</p><p>2) The lead time indicator is down from a record high a month ago, but the data remains high, indicating that raw material shortages have little relief. Unfulfilled orders climbed slightly to their highest level since 2001. (Indicating that the upward pressure on CPI and PPI will continue)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1e2b271bbacb2898b9d32bb242dcec\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Simply put, this data further exacerbates concerns about inflation.</p><p><b>Following the release of this data, global markets experienced significant volatility.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224b522488a050180fab5f921e48a0a5\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Gold prices turned from falling to rising, soaring to their highest level in a month. Returned to above its 200-week moving average for the first time since January.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b50e142687838e990a219591f7de7310\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Silver surges above $28</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a12462452b24f16f92c4b73a694f349d\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. crude futures recover above $66</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b8e4f0f40500e14404d50683ec4de47\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Yields jump across the board as US Treasury Bond hits a sell-off</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7887c1101b8db0eeebca53c7a29351b8\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The dollar continues its decline and continues its bottoming journey</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7c944daed2eb53376058435ee83f82\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. stocks were lower across the board, but the losses were limited.</p><p>Today, the hype over inflation is more intense (rising breakeven inflation and falling real yields continue to support this view), and the debate on the topic is unlikely to fade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79665fbbdaca4dc3fe4e5e806148c85\" tg-width=\"342\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wave after wave, Wall Street is facing a formidable enemy</b></p><p>It is worth noting that Wall Street investment banks have begun to issue early warnings one after another.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at Global Wealth Management, said:</p><p>Driven by inflation data and other risk factors, investors should prepare for more volatility in the market. But we don't think inflation concerns will end the stock market rally, and we expect cyclical stocks to lead the stock market higher as the scope of the global economic restart widens.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Also calling on investors to be cautious, its chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets wrote in a note released on Sunday:</p><p>Investors are facing a \"hotter and shorter\" economic cycle for the first time in a decade due to massive fiscal stimulus, loose monetary policy, increased vaccination efforts and the highest consumer savings rate in history. However, the prospect of rising inflation, policy tightening, profit pressures and tax increases may weigh on returns, thus reducing exposure to risky assets such as credit bonds and equities. The strong economic limelight also brings difficulties. Just 14 months after the low point, investors are faced with the timing of early cycles, more and more medium-term conditions and late-term valuations.</p><p>Established equity investment firm T. Rowe Price Said on Monday,</p><p>When global economic growth peaks, stocks are vulnerable to potential setbacks.</p><p>UniCredit, Italy's largest bank, said,</p><p>Safe-haven trades are more likely.</p><p><b>The reaction is half a beat slow</b></p><p>At present, judging from the market trend, investors' reaction is still half a beat slow. Investors trade mostly based on inflation expectations, not Fed rate hike expectations (think twice, too high inflation will trigger Fed rate hike expectations). These are two completely different concepts. Take gold as an example. If it is based on inflation expectations, gold will rise. But if inflation is too high, triggering Fed rate hike expectations, then gold will fall.</p><p>Investors reacted half a beat slowly. The biggest factor is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Credibility (have you ever thought about it, in case the Fed loses credibility?). The Federal Reserve insists that interest rates will remain low for a longer period of time, and inflation expectations are only temporary. This makes investors wary of making reverse bets on the central bank's commitment to remain accommodative for a sustainable future.</p><p>Rabobank believes that no matter which side of the U.S. inflation debate will prove to be correct, if real interest rates rise again due to expected economic expansion, it means that there is still room for volatility in the trading environment in the coming weeks, and the U.S. dollar has potential opportunities for strengthening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f4dcf15cdeed7ea958b2e823181638d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Next, the focus of our research is still on when the market expects the Fed to tighten policy (reduction of QE, rate hike). There are two time points below, which everyone should remember.</p><p>1）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the survey, more than half of the respondents believe that the Federal Reserve will release a signal to reduce QE no later than September.</p><p>2) The current Eurodollar futures price shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to conduct its first rate hike around March 2023 and another rate hike no later than September of that year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>It is believed that the market is pricing the Fed too dovish. The pricing shows the expectation that there will be about two rate hike by the end of 2023, while the real situation is that there should be at least two rate hike in 2023.</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night, a small data caused a huge shock, and Wall Street was facing an enemy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night, a small data caused a huge shock, and Wall Street was facing an enemy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-18 09:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Monday, a small data triggered a huge shock in global markets.</p><p>From the perspective of the financial agenda, there was no major event that needed special attention on Monday, but the release of a data rewrote the market trend.</p><p>The data showed that the new york manufacturing index fell to 24.3 in May from 26.3 a month ago. Although it declined, it was higher than the market expectation of 23.9. The usage of this data is different from that of manufacturing PMI. Higher than \"0\" indicates that the industry is in a state of expansion. Overall, this is an optimistic report, but the breakdown data of this report has aroused traders' concerns-</p><p>1) The paid price index rose 8.8 points to 83.5, the highest point since data became available in 2001. The charge price index climbed 2.2 points to 37.1, also hitting a new high. (Firms pay higher prices for raw materials, but also charge higher prices)</p><p>2) The lead time indicator is down from a record high a month ago, but the data remains high, indicating that raw material shortages have little relief. Unfulfilled orders climbed slightly to their highest level since 2001. (Indicating that the upward pressure on CPI and PPI will continue)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c1e2b271bbacb2898b9d32bb242dcec\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Simply put, this data further exacerbates concerns about inflation.</p><p><b>Following the release of this data, global markets experienced significant volatility.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224b522488a050180fab5f921e48a0a5\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Gold prices turned from falling to rising, soaring to their highest level in a month. Returned to above its 200-week moving average for the first time since January.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b50e142687838e990a219591f7de7310\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Silver surges above $28</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a12462452b24f16f92c4b73a694f349d\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. crude futures recover above $66</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b8e4f0f40500e14404d50683ec4de47\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Yields jump across the board as US Treasury Bond hits a sell-off</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7887c1101b8db0eeebca53c7a29351b8\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The dollar continues its decline and continues its bottoming journey</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7c944daed2eb53376058435ee83f82\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. stocks were lower across the board, but the losses were limited.</p><p>Today, the hype over inflation is more intense (rising breakeven inflation and falling real yields continue to support this view), and the debate on the topic is unlikely to fade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79665fbbdaca4dc3fe4e5e806148c85\" tg-width=\"342\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wave after wave, Wall Street is facing a formidable enemy</b></p><p>It is worth noting that Wall Street investment banks have begun to issue early warnings one after another.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at Global Wealth Management, said:</p><p>Driven by inflation data and other risk factors, investors should prepare for more volatility in the market. But we don't think inflation concerns will end the stock market rally, and we expect cyclical stocks to lead the stock market higher as the scope of the global economic restart widens.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Also calling on investors to be cautious, its chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets wrote in a note released on Sunday:</p><p>Investors are facing a \"hotter and shorter\" economic cycle for the first time in a decade due to massive fiscal stimulus, loose monetary policy, increased vaccination efforts and the highest consumer savings rate in history. However, the prospect of rising inflation, policy tightening, profit pressures and tax increases may weigh on returns, thus reducing exposure to risky assets such as credit bonds and equities. The strong economic limelight also brings difficulties. Just 14 months after the low point, investors are faced with the timing of early cycles, more and more medium-term conditions and late-term valuations.</p><p>Established equity investment firm T. Rowe Price Said on Monday,</p><p>When global economic growth peaks, stocks are vulnerable to potential setbacks.</p><p>UniCredit, Italy's largest bank, said,</p><p>Safe-haven trades are more likely.</p><p><b>The reaction is half a beat slow</b></p><p>At present, judging from the market trend, investors' reaction is still half a beat slow. Investors trade mostly based on inflation expectations, not Fed rate hike expectations (think twice, too high inflation will trigger Fed rate hike expectations). These are two completely different concepts. Take gold as an example. If it is based on inflation expectations, gold will rise. But if inflation is too high, triggering Fed rate hike expectations, then gold will fall.</p><p>Investors reacted half a beat slowly. The biggest factor is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Credibility (have you ever thought about it, in case the Fed loses credibility?). The Federal Reserve insists that interest rates will remain low for a longer period of time, and inflation expectations are only temporary. This makes investors wary of making reverse bets on the central bank's commitment to remain accommodative for a sustainable future.</p><p>Rabobank believes that no matter which side of the U.S. inflation debate will prove to be correct, if real interest rates rise again due to expected economic expansion, it means that there is still room for volatility in the trading environment in the coming weeks, and the U.S. dollar has potential opportunities for strengthening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f4dcf15cdeed7ea958b2e823181638d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Next, the focus of our research is still on when the market expects the Fed to tighten policy (reduction of QE, rate hike). There are two time points below, which everyone should remember.</p><p>1）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the survey, more than half of the respondents believe that the Federal Reserve will release a signal to reduce QE no later than September.</p><p>2) The current Eurodollar futures price shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to conduct its first rate hike around March 2023 and another rate hike no later than September of that year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>It is believed that the market is pricing the Fed too dovish. The pricing shows the expectation that there will be about two rate hike by the end of 2023, while the real situation is that there should be at least two rate hike in 2023.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476940.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476940.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136578469","content_text":"周一，一个小数据引发了全球市场的巨震。\n从财经日程上看，原本周一没有什么特别需要关注的大事，但一个数据的公布改写了市场走势。\n数据显示，5月纽约制造业指数从一个月前的26.3降至24.3，虽然有所下降，但高于市场预期的23.9。这个数据的用法和制造业PMI不同，高于“0”表明行业处于扩张状态。总体来说，这是一份乐观的报告，但这个报告的分项数据引发了交易员的担忧——\n1）支付价格指数升8.8点至83.5，为自2001年有数据以来的最高点。收取价格指数攀升2.2点至37.1，也创下新高。（企业为原材料支付了更高价格，同时也收取了更高价格）\n2）交货时间指标较一个月前的纪录高位有所下降，但该数据仍保持较高水平，表明原材料短缺几乎没有缓解。未履行订单小幅攀升至2001年以来的最高水平。（说明CPI和PPI上行压力仍将持续）\n\n简单来说，这个数据进一步加剧了对通胀的担忧。\n该数据公布后，全球市场出现大幅波动。\n\n金价由跌转涨，飙升至一个月以来最高水平。自1月份以来，首次重返其200周移动均线上方。\n\n白银飙升至28美元上方\n\n美国原油期货回升至66美元上方\n\n美国国债遭遇抛售，收益率全线上涨\n\n美元延续下跌，继续寻底之旅\n\n美国股市全线走低，但跌幅受限。\n如今，对通胀的炒作更加剧烈（盈亏平衡通胀率上升和实际收益率下降继续支持这一观点），对于这个话题的争论不太可能消退。\n\n“小心呼声”一浪高过一浪，华尔街如临大敌\n值得注意的是，华尔街投行已经开始相继发布预警。\n瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官Mark Haefele表示：\n在通胀数据以及其他风险因素的推动下，投资者应为市场出现更大波动做好准备。但我们并不认为通货膨胀担忧会终结股市涨势，随着全球经济重启范围的扩大，我们预计周期性股票将引领股市走高。\n摩根士丹利也呼吁投资者要小心谨慎，其首席跨资产策略师Andrew Sheets在周日发布的报告中写道：\n投资者十年来首次面临“更热更短”的经济周期，原因包括大规模的财政刺激、宽松的货币政策、疫苗接种力度加大以及史上最高消费者储蓄率等。但是，通胀上升、政策收紧、利润压力和增税等前景可能会让回报承压，因此缩减对信用债和股票等风险资产的敞口。经济风头强劲也带来了难题，距离低点过去仅仅14个月，投资者就面临着早期周期的时机，越来越多的中期状况以及后期的估值等问题。\n老牌的股权投资公司T. Rowe Price周一表示，\n全球经济成长见顶之时，股票很容易遭遇潜在挫折。\n意大利最大银行UniCredit表示，\n避险交易会更有可能。\n反应慢了半拍\n目前，从市场的走势看，投资者反应仍旧慢了半拍。投资者主要基于通胀预期交易，而不是美联储加息预期（多想一步，通胀过高会引发美联储加息预期）。这是完全两个不同的概念，就拿黄金来说，如果基于通胀预期那么黄金会上涨。但如果通胀过高，引发美联储加息预期，那么黄金将会下跌。\n投资者反应慢了半拍，最大的因素是中央银行的公信力（想没想过，万一美联储失去公信力？）。美联储坚持利率会在更长一段时间内保持低位，通胀预期只是暂时现象。这令投资者警惕对央行在可持续未来保持宽松政策的承诺做反向押注。\n荷兰合作银行认为，无论美国通胀辩论的哪一方会被证明是正确的，但实质利率若再次因为预期经济的扩张而走升，那么即表明未来几周的交易环境仍有波动空间，美元具有潜在的走强契机。\n\n接下来我们研究的重点仍旧是市场预期美联储何时收紧政策（缩减QE、加息）上。下面有两个时间点，大家要记住。\n1）美国银行调查显示，过半的受访者认为美联储不晚于9月份释放缩减QE的信号。\n2）当前欧洲美元期货价格显示，市场预期美联储将于2023年3月前后首次加息，不晚于当年9月再次加息。\n花旗认为，市场对美联储的定价过于鸽派。定价显示的预期是，到2023年末大约会两次加息，而真实的情况是2023年至少应加息两次。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"518880":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131914581,"gmtCreate":1621821398643,"gmtModify":1704362765678,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131914581","repostId":"2137746749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137746749","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621820894,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137746749?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 09:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CITIC Mingming: The RMB still has room for appreciation, and the USD/RMB may touch 6.2","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137746749","media":"格隆汇","summary":"中信债券明明认为当前人民币汇率走强动能仍然较强，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。","content":"<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>Since June 2020, the RMB has gone out of a period of strength, and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has dropped from a high of 7.16 to a recent low of 6.42. Although the RMB exchange rate depreciated from February to March 2021, it then returned to the appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB recorded 6.44. We believe that there is still room for RMB appreciation in the future, and the exchange rate of USD/RMB will fall or touch 6.2.</b></p><p><b>Under long and short factors, the two-way fluctuation of RMB has increased, but the overall strength has increased.</b>Since April this year, the RMB has returned to a strong trend, and the correlation between the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the the US Dollar Index has increased. The RMB exchange rate depreciated from February to March 2021, and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose from 6.45 on February 24 to 6.57 on March 30. Subsequently, the RMB returned to the appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB recorded 6.44, down about 1.98% from the 2021 high. After analysis, we believe that the main reasons include: (1) In April, the United States was affected by factors such as the decline in real interest rates, the slowdown in U.S. economic recovery momentum, and the economic recovery in Europe. U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend; (2) Weak employment and soaring inflation since May have triggered fluctuations in U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index, which in turn has led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate; (3) The high prosperity of China's foreign trade, economic recovery and the increase in the attractiveness of domestic assets driven by the development of its own comprehensive strength have all increased the demand for RMB and promoted the increase in the value of RMB.</p><p><b>Strong exports continue to support RMB demand.</b>Due to the fact that China's capital and financial accounts are not fully convertible, the applicability of interest rate parity theory is weakened, while compared with the current account balance and foreign trade balance, the explanation of exchange rate is stronger. Against the background of global trade restoration and differentiation, China's foreign trade took the lead in restoration. Considering that COVID-19 pandemic has broken out again in India, Japan and other places, it may have a certain negative impact on global production capacity. At the same time, China's production capacity continues to recover. In 2021, China's exports to the United States may continue to maintain a high prosperity, increasing the trade surplus while providing impetus for the appreciation of the RMB. From the perspective of the United States, the trade deficit of the United States has gradually increased since December 2020, reaching US $74.448 billion as of March 2021, an increase of 5.56% month-on-month. The persistent trade deficit has increased the demand for foreign currencies, putting depreciation pressure on the US dollar.</p><p><b>The Fed is currently swinging from side to side, but overall it remains dovish.</b>Splitting nominal U.S. bond yields into inflation expectations and real interest rates, we find that overall the decline in real interest rates is even greater, reflecting the current expectation of weakening U.S. economic recovery. The Fed is still dovish in its attitude, emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation and the need to maintain low interest rates. It is expected that the possibility of policy tightening in the short term is low. Lower real interest rates combined with the Fed's dovish attitude may lead to insufficient upward momentum in U.S. bond yields. U.S. bond yields are expected to affect the RMB exchange rate through the Sino-U.S. interest rate spread. The current interest rate differential between China and the United States is around 150bps, which is still higher than the safety boundary of 100bps. If the interest rate differential between China and the United States continues to widen in the future, it will further increase the value of RMB asset allocation, thereby boosting RMB demand and stimulating RMB appreciation</p><p><b>Summary:</b>China's monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2021 released by the central bank mentioned: 'Give full play to the decisive role of market supply and demand in the formation of exchange rates, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management, stabilize market expectations, and guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of \"risk neutrality\" to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.' With the strengthening of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of the RMB and the continuous opening of the financial market, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented. Combined with factors such as China's strong exports, lower real interest rates in the United States, and the overall dovish attitude of the Federal Reserve, we believe that the RMB exchange rate still has strong momentum, and the USD/RMB exchange rate may fall or touch 6.2.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Since June 2020, the RMB has gone out of a period of strength, and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has dropped from a high of 7.16 to a recent low of 6.42. Although the RMB exchange rate depreciated from February to March 2021, it then returned to the appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB recorded 6.44. We believe that there is still room for RMB appreciation in the future, and the exchange rate of USD/RMB will fall or touch 6.2.</p><p><h3><b>Under long and short factors, the two-way fluctuation of RMB has increased, but the overall strength has increased</b></h3><b>Since April this year, the RMB has returned to a strong trend, and the correlation between the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the the US Dollar Index has increased.</b>This round of RMB appreciation began at the end of May 2020. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB continued to decline from the high point (7.16) on May 28, 2020, and reached the lowest point in the past year on May 10, 2021. 6.42, with the largest drop reaching 10.34%. In the near term, the RMB exchange rate depreciated from February to March 2021, and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose from 6.45 on February 24 to 6.57 on March 30. Subsequently, the RMB returned to the appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB recorded 6.44, down about 1.98% from the 2021 high. From the perspective of the US Dollar Index, its correlation with the spot exchange rate of USD/RMB has fluctuated to some extent in history. For example, from January to February 2021, the US Dollar Index rose, while the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable due to the support of foreign exchange settlement and sales. Since March 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has once again maintained a similar trend to that of the the US Dollar Index, and the correlation between the two has increased.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60537f63bd0a3e72233a06121aa63e6f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Since the beginning of this year, the US Dollar Index has risen first and then fallen</b></p><p><b>During the Q2-Q4 period of 2020, the widening interest rate differential between China and the United States increased the allocation value of Chinese assets, resulting in the depreciation of the US dollar.</b>The 10-year Treasury Bond spread between the two countries has a guiding effect on the flow of funds, which in turn leads to changes in money demand. Taking China and the United States as examples, after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the United States in March 2020, the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond dropped rapidly to around 0.7%, while China's 10-year Treasury Bond remained around 2.6%. During Q2-Q4 of 2020, the interest rate differential between China and the United States widened sharply, exceeding 200bps in mid-May. Superimposed on the impact of risk aversion, the value of China's asset allocation increased, and increased demand for RMB led to the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ce66b49333c75187ee8aac41d770ca\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In 2021Q1, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy continued to improve and the yield of U.S. bonds continued to rise, driving the appreciation of the U.S. dollar.</b>In terms of macroeconomics, the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI of the United States hit new highs in the first quarter of 2021. In March, the manufacturing PMI recorded 64.7 and the non-manufacturing PMI recorded 63.7. At the same time, the U.S. bond yield rose from 0.93% on January 4, 2021 to 1.74% on March 31, an increase of 81bps. The combined effect of high economic fundamentals and the continued upward trend in U.S. bond yields pushed the US Dollar Index from 89.88 on January 4 to 93.18 on March 31.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1531717ff143b371d542aa611c403005\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In April 2021, U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index show a downward trend.</b>Regarding the decline in U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index in April, we believe that one of the important considerations is the market's attitude towards the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Under the Federal Reserve's continued signal of maintaining easing, the market's concerns about the early tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have declined. Specifically, the decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield in April mainly came from the decline in real yields, while changes in inflation expectations during this period were relatively limited. Judging from the weight of the basket of currencies that make up the US Dollar Index, the recovery of the European economy has also affected the trend of the US Dollar Index after April. In the US Dollar Index's calculation, the weight of the euro is 57.6% and that of the pound is 11.9%, totaling 69.5%. Therefore, the economic fundamentals in Europe have a certain indirect impact on the trend of the US Dollar Index. With the economic recovery of major countries in Europe, currencies such as the euro and pound have strengthened, resulting in the weakening of the US Dollar Index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a9349bce137b7ee13960f792d6d5092\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Since May 2021, U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index have fluctuated, which in turn has led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.</b>After entering May, U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index fluctuated due to employment and inflation data. On the one hand, the released non-agricultural data in April fell short of expectations, and the the US Dollar Index quickly dropped to around 90.40 in the short term. After pulling up, it continued to fluctuate downward, closing down at 90.24 that day; The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell nearly 10bps to around 1.48%. The inflation data released later greatly exceeded market expectations. In April, the unseasonally adjusted core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, causing the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rise sharply by 7.3 bps after the data was released that day. The high point broke through 1.69%, and the the US Dollar Index high point was forced to 91. With soaring price levels but a weak job market, the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma, and the volatility of U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index has increased, which in turn has led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20eed0fcbd91e3e34b939cca19924989\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db904f3feccd8bbf9abd11d5a3f213b1\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Renminbi demand unabated</b></p><p><b>As the economy continues to recover, my country's high-prosperity exports are an important reason for this round of RMB strengthening.</b>Foreign trade is an important angle to observe the trend of exchange rate. Theoretically, when a country's foreign trade is in surplus (export > import), the demand for the country's local currency will rise, which will lead to the appreciation of the local currency. Since the second quarter of 2020, China's domestic epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, and industrial production has gradually recovered. At the same time, overseas epidemics have broken out. Against the background of global supply and demand mismatch, China's exports have taken the lead in rebounding, and the trade balance has also reversed, maintaining a trade surplus for 14 consecutive months. Among them, the trade surplus in November and December 2020 reached its peak since the epidemic, corresponding to the low spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB during the same period. Entering 2021, the trade surplus narrowed in the first quarter due to the recovery of overseas supply, and the trend of RMB appreciation declined slightly. However, in April, my country's imports and exports far exceeded expectations, and the increase in trade surplus once again pushed the RMB to strengthen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f0e11048ba82ff6c46e4253a5431a91\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f8504e7fbfb09da1366dbb31c42b65\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In April 2021, foreign capital continued to increase its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond, supporting the RMB exchange rate.</b>In March 2021, foreign capital slightly reduced its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond, which also had an impact on the depreciation of the RMB at that time to a certain extent. In April, foreign capital re-increased its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond. The total amount of bond custody in April was 3,221.945 billion yuan, compared with March. An increase of 64.86 billion yuan. Regarding the main reasons for the rapid growth of foreign debt holdings, we believe that there are the following points: (1) The decline in U.S. bond yields during the same period led to the widening of the Sino-U.S. interest rate gap; (2) During the same period, the epidemic spread in emerging markets, and RMB assets attracted safe-haven funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48766b5bf800584ae7573bef5010b733\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>To sum up, this round of RMB appreciation can be explained from two dimensions: the US Dollar Index and RMB demand.</b>First, the rapid recovery of U.S. economic fundamentals in 2021Q1 and the continued rise in U.S. bond yields have driven the appreciation of the U.S. dollar; Subsequently, in April, affected by factors such as the decline in real interest rates, the easing of U.S. economic recovery momentum, and the economic recovery in Europe, U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend; Since May, employment and inflation readings have triggered slight fluctuations in U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index, which in turn has led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate; Second, the high prosperity of China's foreign trade supports this round of RMB strengthening. The import and export data in April 2021 exceeded expectations and foreign capital re-increased its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond further promoted the value of the RMB.</p><p><h3><b>Strong exports continue to support RMB demand</b></h3><b>Due to the fact that China's capital and financial accounts are not fully convertible, the applicability of interest rate parity theory is weakened, while compared with the current account balance and foreign trade balance, the explanation of exchange rate is stronger.</b>The core point of interest rate parity theory is that the forward exchange rate difference between a country's currency is equal to the interest rate difference between the two countries. Although this theory can explain the change of RMB exchange rate to a certain extent, its inherent assumptions include no transaction costs and complete capital flow. In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>And in an environment where financial accounts are not fully open, the explanation has weakened. Comparatively speaking, the explanation of exchange rate from the current account balance and foreign trade balance is stronger, especially in the short term, China's import and export are in a high prosperity, which is more practical to analyze from this perspective.</p><p><b>Against the background of global trade recovery and differentiation, China's trade with the United States will continue to maintain a high prosperity, providing support for the strengthening of the RMB.</b>From a global perspective, China's foreign exports have turned positive since June 2020, especially after October 2020, maintaining a high growth rate of more than 10%. In contrast, exports from other major trading partners of the United States have recovered more slowly, with exports from the United Kingdom and Japan remaining negative as of February 2021 (-3.14% and-0.45%). From the perspective of Sino-US trade, since 2021, China's imports and exports to the United States have maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%. The trade surplus in April was affected by the increase in exports and the decrease in imports, and increased by approximately 31.5% compared with the March data. Considering that COVID-19 pandemic has broken out again in India, Japan and other places, it will have a certain negative impact on global production capacity. Against this background, China's production capacity continues to recover, and China's exports to the United States may continue to maintain a high prosperity in 2021, increasing the trade surplus while providing impetus for the appreciation of the RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfcf17db0d1c89c7deadc04210a55696\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40367f274a619c7a48b74bf3d9bd9abf\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The persistent trade deficit in the United States puts depreciation pressure on the US dollar.</b>Since 2021, the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs have continued to remain high, with the manufacturing PMI from February to April and the non-manufacturing PMI from March to April both higher than 60. In terms of consumer demand, the U.S. consumer confidence index also showed a high growth. In April 2021, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index recorded 88.3. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy and the recovery of consumer demand, the U.S. trade deficit has gradually increased since December 2020. As of March 2021, its trade deficit reached US $74.448 billion, a month-on-month increase of 5.56%. The persistent trade deficit has increased the demand for foreign currencies, putting depreciation pressure on the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3880584b1e496d4a8785e91b5987a1\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9483e3a12e032d55b227d57bf59c85\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The Fed is currently swinging from side to side, but overall it remains dovish</b></p><p><b>Lower real interest rates and the overall dovish bias of the Federal Reserve may lead to insufficient upward momentum in U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index.</b>Splitting the nominal U.S. bond yield into inflation expectations and real interest rates, we find that: On the one hand, since mid-March 2021, the U.S. real interest rate has turned from rising to falling, from-0.56% on March 18 to-0.56% on May 18.-0.88%, a change of 32pbs, reflecting the current expectation of weakening U.S. economic recovery. But on the other hand, monetary easing combined with fiscal stimulus has led to a rapid rise in domestic inflation in the United States. From the perspective of inflation expectations that affect nominal interest rates, inflation expectations have continued to rise since mid-March 2021, rising from 2.27% on March 18 to 2.52% on May 18, a change of 25bps, while the Fed's attitude is still biased. Dovish, emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation and the need to maintain low interest rates, it is expected that the possibility of policy tightening in the short term is low. The imbalance of economic recovery interacts with the policy orientation of the Federal Reserve, and the upward momentum of 10-year U.S. bond yields is insufficient.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dec0b88904ece48be0d90970212dfbff\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The impact of U.S. bond yields is transmitted to the RMB exchange rate through the Sino-U.S. interest rate differential.</b>Under this logic, lower U.S. bond yields lead to a widening of interest rate gaps between China and the United States, which in turn reduces the value of U.S. dollar asset allocation and increases the value of RMB asset allocation. From the perspective of historical average, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has basically remained above 100bps in the past 11 years; From the perspective of investor behavior, we have analyzed the situation of Sino-US interest rates, foreign capital's purchase of Treasury Bond and foreign capital's purchase of Treasury Bond and government bonds since the data on the bond custody volume of overseas institutions of ChinaBond became available in 2014. The study found that the Sino-US interest rate spread of 100bps can basically keep foreign capital from flowing out of China's bond market. The current interest rate differential between China and the United States is around 150bps, which is still higher than the safety boundary of 100bps. If the interest rate differential between China and the United States continues to widen in the future, it will further increase the value of RMB asset allocation, thereby boosting the demand for RMB and stimulating the appreciation of RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d107df492386f6ddff04c00e2bd12e57\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h3><b>conclusion</b></h3><b>The two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented.</b>Last month, Zhou Chengjun, director of the Financial Research Institute of the People's Bank of China, said at the Moganshan meeting that \"the RMB will continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the medium and long term, which is not only the result of China's sustained economic growth and the increasing relative purchasing power of the RMB, but also one of the consequences of the Fed's quantitative easing and continuous balance sheet expansion.\" In addition, the central bank's report on China's monetary policy implementation in the first quarter of 2021 also mentioned: 'Give full play to the decisive role of market supply and demand in exchange rate formation, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management, stabilize market expectations, and guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the \"risk neutrality\" concept. With the enhancement of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of the RMB and the continuous opening of the financial market, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented.</p><p><b>To sum up, we believe that the current momentum of RMB exchange rate strengthening is still strong, and the exchange rate of USD/RMB will fall or touch 6.2.</b>From the perspective of foreign trade, considering the recurrence of epidemics in other parts of the world and the recovery of domestic demand in the United States, China's exports to the United States will remain strong in the short term, and the trade surplus may continue to rise, driving the RMB to continue to appreciate. On the other hand, the continued trade deficit of the United States also provides support for the RMB from the perspective of the depreciation of the US dollar. From the perspective of U.S. debt, the current slowdown in U.S. economic recovery has led to a decline in real interest rates, coupled with the dovish attitude of the Federal Reserve, the possibility of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy in the short term is low. Under the combined effect of the two factors, we believe that there is still room for RMB appreciation.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC Mingming: The RMB still has room for appreciation, and the USD/RMB may touch 6.2</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC Mingming: The RMB still has room for appreciation, and the USD/RMB may touch 6.2\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 09:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>Since June 2020, the RMB has gone out of a period of strength, and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has dropped from a high of 7.16 to a recent low of 6.42. Although the RMB exchange rate depreciated from February to March 2021, it then returned to the appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB recorded 6.44. We believe that there is still room for RMB appreciation in the future, and the exchange rate of USD/RMB will fall or touch 6.2.</b></p><p><b>Under long and short factors, the two-way fluctuation of RMB has increased, but the overall strength has increased.</b>Since April this year, the RMB has returned to a strong trend, and the correlation between the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the the US Dollar Index has increased. The RMB exchange rate depreciated from February to March 2021, and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose from 6.45 on February 24 to 6.57 on March 30. Subsequently, the RMB returned to the appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB recorded 6.44, down about 1.98% from the 2021 high. After analysis, we believe that the main reasons include: (1) In April, the United States was affected by factors such as the decline in real interest rates, the slowdown in U.S. economic recovery momentum, and the economic recovery in Europe. U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend; (2) Weak employment and soaring inflation since May have triggered fluctuations in U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index, which in turn has led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate; (3) The high prosperity of China's foreign trade, economic recovery and the increase in the attractiveness of domestic assets driven by the development of its own comprehensive strength have all increased the demand for RMB and promoted the increase in the value of RMB.</p><p><b>Strong exports continue to support RMB demand.</b>Due to the fact that China's capital and financial accounts are not fully convertible, the applicability of interest rate parity theory is weakened, while compared with the current account balance and foreign trade balance, the explanation of exchange rate is stronger. Against the background of global trade restoration and differentiation, China's foreign trade took the lead in restoration. Considering that COVID-19 pandemic has broken out again in India, Japan and other places, it may have a certain negative impact on global production capacity. At the same time, China's production capacity continues to recover. In 2021, China's exports to the United States may continue to maintain a high prosperity, increasing the trade surplus while providing impetus for the appreciation of the RMB. From the perspective of the United States, the trade deficit of the United States has gradually increased since December 2020, reaching US $74.448 billion as of March 2021, an increase of 5.56% month-on-month. The persistent trade deficit has increased the demand for foreign currencies, putting depreciation pressure on the US dollar.</p><p><b>The Fed is currently swinging from side to side, but overall it remains dovish.</b>Splitting nominal U.S. bond yields into inflation expectations and real interest rates, we find that overall the decline in real interest rates is even greater, reflecting the current expectation of weakening U.S. economic recovery. The Fed is still dovish in its attitude, emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation and the need to maintain low interest rates. It is expected that the possibility of policy tightening in the short term is low. Lower real interest rates combined with the Fed's dovish attitude may lead to insufficient upward momentum in U.S. bond yields. U.S. bond yields are expected to affect the RMB exchange rate through the Sino-U.S. interest rate spread. The current interest rate differential between China and the United States is around 150bps, which is still higher than the safety boundary of 100bps. If the interest rate differential between China and the United States continues to widen in the future, it will further increase the value of RMB asset allocation, thereby boosting RMB demand and stimulating RMB appreciation</p><p><b>Summary:</b>China's monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2021 released by the central bank mentioned: 'Give full play to the decisive role of market supply and demand in the formation of exchange rates, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management, stabilize market expectations, and guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of \"risk neutrality\" to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.' With the strengthening of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of the RMB and the continuous opening of the financial market, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented. Combined with factors such as China's strong exports, lower real interest rates in the United States, and the overall dovish attitude of the Federal Reserve, we believe that the RMB exchange rate still has strong momentum, and the USD/RMB exchange rate may fall or touch 6.2.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Since June 2020, the RMB has gone out of a period of strength, and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has dropped from a high of 7.16 to a recent low of 6.42. Although the RMB exchange rate depreciated from February to March 2021, it then returned to the appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB recorded 6.44. We believe that there is still room for RMB appreciation in the future, and the exchange rate of USD/RMB will fall or touch 6.2.</p><p><h3><b>Under long and short factors, the two-way fluctuation of RMB has increased, but the overall strength has increased</b></h3><b>Since April this year, the RMB has returned to a strong trend, and the correlation between the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the the US Dollar Index has increased.</b>This round of RMB appreciation began at the end of May 2020. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB continued to decline from the high point (7.16) on May 28, 2020, and reached the lowest point in the past year on May 10, 2021. 6.42, with the largest drop reaching 10.34%. In the near term, the RMB exchange rate depreciated from February to March 2021, and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose from 6.45 on February 24 to 6.57 on March 30. Subsequently, the RMB returned to the appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB recorded 6.44, down about 1.98% from the 2021 high. From the perspective of the US Dollar Index, its correlation with the spot exchange rate of USD/RMB has fluctuated to some extent in history. For example, from January to February 2021, the US Dollar Index rose, while the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable due to the support of foreign exchange settlement and sales. Since March 2021, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has once again maintained a similar trend to that of the the US Dollar Index, and the correlation between the two has increased.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60537f63bd0a3e72233a06121aa63e6f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Since the beginning of this year, the US Dollar Index has risen first and then fallen</b></p><p><b>During the Q2-Q4 period of 2020, the widening interest rate differential between China and the United States increased the allocation value of Chinese assets, resulting in the depreciation of the US dollar.</b>The 10-year Treasury Bond spread between the two countries has a guiding effect on the flow of funds, which in turn leads to changes in money demand. Taking China and the United States as examples, after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the United States in March 2020, the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond dropped rapidly to around 0.7%, while China's 10-year Treasury Bond remained around 2.6%. During Q2-Q4 of 2020, the interest rate differential between China and the United States widened sharply, exceeding 200bps in mid-May. Superimposed on the impact of risk aversion, the value of China's asset allocation increased, and increased demand for RMB led to the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ce66b49333c75187ee8aac41d770ca\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In 2021Q1, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy continued to improve and the yield of U.S. bonds continued to rise, driving the appreciation of the U.S. dollar.</b>In terms of macroeconomics, the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI of the United States hit new highs in the first quarter of 2021. In March, the manufacturing PMI recorded 64.7 and the non-manufacturing PMI recorded 63.7. At the same time, the U.S. bond yield rose from 0.93% on January 4, 2021 to 1.74% on March 31, an increase of 81bps. The combined effect of high economic fundamentals and the continued upward trend in U.S. bond yields pushed the US Dollar Index from 89.88 on January 4 to 93.18 on March 31.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1531717ff143b371d542aa611c403005\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In April 2021, U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index show a downward trend.</b>Regarding the decline in U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index in April, we believe that one of the important considerations is the market's attitude towards the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Under the Federal Reserve's continued signal of maintaining easing, the market's concerns about the early tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have declined. Specifically, the decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield in April mainly came from the decline in real yields, while changes in inflation expectations during this period were relatively limited. Judging from the weight of the basket of currencies that make up the US Dollar Index, the recovery of the European economy has also affected the trend of the US Dollar Index after April. In the US Dollar Index's calculation, the weight of the euro is 57.6% and that of the pound is 11.9%, totaling 69.5%. Therefore, the economic fundamentals in Europe have a certain indirect impact on the trend of the US Dollar Index. With the economic recovery of major countries in Europe, currencies such as the euro and pound have strengthened, resulting in the weakening of the US Dollar Index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a9349bce137b7ee13960f792d6d5092\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Since May 2021, U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index have fluctuated, which in turn has led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.</b>After entering May, U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index fluctuated due to employment and inflation data. On the one hand, the released non-agricultural data in April fell short of expectations, and the the US Dollar Index quickly dropped to around 90.40 in the short term. After pulling up, it continued to fluctuate downward, closing down at 90.24 that day; The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell nearly 10bps to around 1.48%. The inflation data released later greatly exceeded market expectations. In April, the unseasonally adjusted core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, causing the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rise sharply by 7.3 bps after the data was released that day. The high point broke through 1.69%, and the the US Dollar Index high point was forced to 91. With soaring price levels but a weak job market, the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma, and the volatility of U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index has increased, which in turn has led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20eed0fcbd91e3e34b939cca19924989\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db904f3feccd8bbf9abd11d5a3f213b1\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Renminbi demand unabated</b></p><p><b>As the economy continues to recover, my country's high-prosperity exports are an important reason for this round of RMB strengthening.</b>Foreign trade is an important angle to observe the trend of exchange rate. Theoretically, when a country's foreign trade is in surplus (export > import), the demand for the country's local currency will rise, which will lead to the appreciation of the local currency. Since the second quarter of 2020, China's domestic epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, and industrial production has gradually recovered. At the same time, overseas epidemics have broken out. Against the background of global supply and demand mismatch, China's exports have taken the lead in rebounding, and the trade balance has also reversed, maintaining a trade surplus for 14 consecutive months. Among them, the trade surplus in November and December 2020 reached its peak since the epidemic, corresponding to the low spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB during the same period. Entering 2021, the trade surplus narrowed in the first quarter due to the recovery of overseas supply, and the trend of RMB appreciation declined slightly. However, in April, my country's imports and exports far exceeded expectations, and the increase in trade surplus once again pushed the RMB to strengthen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f0e11048ba82ff6c46e4253a5431a91\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f8504e7fbfb09da1366dbb31c42b65\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In April 2021, foreign capital continued to increase its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond, supporting the RMB exchange rate.</b>In March 2021, foreign capital slightly reduced its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond, which also had an impact on the depreciation of the RMB at that time to a certain extent. In April, foreign capital re-increased its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond. The total amount of bond custody in April was 3,221.945 billion yuan, compared with March. An increase of 64.86 billion yuan. Regarding the main reasons for the rapid growth of foreign debt holdings, we believe that there are the following points: (1) The decline in U.S. bond yields during the same period led to the widening of the Sino-U.S. interest rate gap; (2) During the same period, the epidemic spread in emerging markets, and RMB assets attracted safe-haven funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48766b5bf800584ae7573bef5010b733\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>To sum up, this round of RMB appreciation can be explained from two dimensions: the US Dollar Index and RMB demand.</b>First, the rapid recovery of U.S. economic fundamentals in 2021Q1 and the continued rise in U.S. bond yields have driven the appreciation of the U.S. dollar; Subsequently, in April, affected by factors such as the decline in real interest rates, the easing of U.S. economic recovery momentum, and the economic recovery in Europe, U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend; Since May, employment and inflation readings have triggered slight fluctuations in U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index, which in turn has led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate; Second, the high prosperity of China's foreign trade supports this round of RMB strengthening. The import and export data in April 2021 exceeded expectations and foreign capital re-increased its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond further promoted the value of the RMB.</p><p><h3><b>Strong exports continue to support RMB demand</b></h3><b>Due to the fact that China's capital and financial accounts are not fully convertible, the applicability of interest rate parity theory is weakened, while compared with the current account balance and foreign trade balance, the explanation of exchange rate is stronger.</b>The core point of interest rate parity theory is that the forward exchange rate difference between a country's currency is equal to the interest rate difference between the two countries. Although this theory can explain the change of RMB exchange rate to a certain extent, its inherent assumptions include no transaction costs and complete capital flow. In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>And in an environment where financial accounts are not fully open, the explanation has weakened. Comparatively speaking, the explanation of exchange rate from the current account balance and foreign trade balance is stronger, especially in the short term, China's import and export are in a high prosperity, which is more practical to analyze from this perspective.</p><p><b>Against the background of global trade recovery and differentiation, China's trade with the United States will continue to maintain a high prosperity, providing support for the strengthening of the RMB.</b>From a global perspective, China's foreign exports have turned positive since June 2020, especially after October 2020, maintaining a high growth rate of more than 10%. In contrast, exports from other major trading partners of the United States have recovered more slowly, with exports from the United Kingdom and Japan remaining negative as of February 2021 (-3.14% and-0.45%). From the perspective of Sino-US trade, since 2021, China's imports and exports to the United States have maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%. The trade surplus in April was affected by the increase in exports and the decrease in imports, and increased by approximately 31.5% compared with the March data. Considering that COVID-19 pandemic has broken out again in India, Japan and other places, it will have a certain negative impact on global production capacity. Against this background, China's production capacity continues to recover, and China's exports to the United States may continue to maintain a high prosperity in 2021, increasing the trade surplus while providing impetus for the appreciation of the RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfcf17db0d1c89c7deadc04210a55696\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40367f274a619c7a48b74bf3d9bd9abf\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The persistent trade deficit in the United States puts depreciation pressure on the US dollar.</b>Since 2021, the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs have continued to remain high, with the manufacturing PMI from February to April and the non-manufacturing PMI from March to April both higher than 60. In terms of consumer demand, the U.S. consumer confidence index also showed a high growth. In April 2021, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index recorded 88.3. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy and the recovery of consumer demand, the U.S. trade deficit has gradually increased since December 2020. As of March 2021, its trade deficit reached US $74.448 billion, a month-on-month increase of 5.56%. The persistent trade deficit has increased the demand for foreign currencies, putting depreciation pressure on the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3880584b1e496d4a8785e91b5987a1\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9483e3a12e032d55b227d57bf59c85\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The Fed is currently swinging from side to side, but overall it remains dovish</b></p><p><b>Lower real interest rates and the overall dovish bias of the Federal Reserve may lead to insufficient upward momentum in U.S. bond yields and the US Dollar Index.</b>Splitting the nominal U.S. bond yield into inflation expectations and real interest rates, we find that: On the one hand, since mid-March 2021, the U.S. real interest rate has turned from rising to falling, from-0.56% on March 18 to-0.56% on May 18.-0.88%, a change of 32pbs, reflecting the current expectation of weakening U.S. economic recovery. But on the other hand, monetary easing combined with fiscal stimulus has led to a rapid rise in domestic inflation in the United States. From the perspective of inflation expectations that affect nominal interest rates, inflation expectations have continued to rise since mid-March 2021, rising from 2.27% on March 18 to 2.52% on May 18, a change of 25bps, while the Fed's attitude is still biased. Dovish, emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation and the need to maintain low interest rates, it is expected that the possibility of policy tightening in the short term is low. The imbalance of economic recovery interacts with the policy orientation of the Federal Reserve, and the upward momentum of 10-year U.S. bond yields is insufficient.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dec0b88904ece48be0d90970212dfbff\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The impact of U.S. bond yields is transmitted to the RMB exchange rate through the Sino-U.S. interest rate differential.</b>Under this logic, lower U.S. bond yields lead to a widening of interest rate gaps between China and the United States, which in turn reduces the value of U.S. dollar asset allocation and increases the value of RMB asset allocation. From the perspective of historical average, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has basically remained above 100bps in the past 11 years; From the perspective of investor behavior, we have analyzed the situation of Sino-US interest rates, foreign capital's purchase of Treasury Bond and foreign capital's purchase of Treasury Bond and government bonds since the data on the bond custody volume of overseas institutions of ChinaBond became available in 2014. The study found that the Sino-US interest rate spread of 100bps can basically keep foreign capital from flowing out of China's bond market. The current interest rate differential between China and the United States is around 150bps, which is still higher than the safety boundary of 100bps. If the interest rate differential between China and the United States continues to widen in the future, it will further increase the value of RMB asset allocation, thereby boosting the demand for RMB and stimulating the appreciation of RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d107df492386f6ddff04c00e2bd12e57\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h3><b>conclusion</b></h3><b>The two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented.</b>Last month, Zhou Chengjun, director of the Financial Research Institute of the People's Bank of China, said at the Moganshan meeting that \"the RMB will continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the medium and long term, which is not only the result of China's sustained economic growth and the increasing relative purchasing power of the RMB, but also one of the consequences of the Fed's quantitative easing and continuous balance sheet expansion.\" In addition, the central bank's report on China's monetary policy implementation in the first quarter of 2021 also mentioned: 'Give full play to the decisive role of market supply and demand in exchange rate formation, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management, stabilize market expectations, and guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the \"risk neutrality\" concept. With the enhancement of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of the RMB and the continuous opening of the financial market, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented.</p><p><b>To sum up, we believe that the current momentum of RMB exchange rate strengthening is still strong, and the exchange rate of USD/RMB will fall or touch 6.2.</b>From the perspective of foreign trade, considering the recurrence of epidemics in other parts of the world and the recovery of domestic demand in the United States, China's exports to the United States will remain strong in the short term, and the trade surplus may continue to rise, driving the RMB to continue to appreciate. On the other hand, the continued trade deficit of the United States also provides support for the RMB from the perspective of the depreciation of the US dollar. From the perspective of U.S. debt, the current slowdown in U.S. economic recovery has led to a decline in real interest rates, coupled with the dovish attitude of the Federal Reserve, the possibility of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy in the short term is low. Under the combined effect of the two factors, we believe that there is still room for RMB appreciation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/466523\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e539f411dc656a968cee6aea7fb1503","relate_stocks":{"CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/466523","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2137746749","content_text":"核心观点2020年6月以来，人民币走出一波强势期，美元兑人民币的即期汇率从高点的7.16一直降至近期最低点6.42。虽然人民币汇率在2021年2月-3月出现贬值，但随后重回升值通道，截至2021年5月20日，美元兑人民币即期汇率录得6.44。我们认为后续人民币仍有升值空间，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。多空因素下人民币双向波动加大，但整体走强。今年4月以来人民币重回走强态势，美元兑人民币即期汇率与美元指数的相关性有所提高。人民币汇率在2021年2月-3月出现贬值，美元兑人民币即期汇率从2月24日的6.45涨至3月30日的6.57。随后人民币重回升值通道，截至2021年5月20日，美元兑人民币即期汇率录得6.44，较2021年高点下跌约1.98%。经分析，我们认为主要原因包括：（1）4月美国受到实际利率下行、美国经济复苏动能放缓和以及欧洲地区经济修复等因素影响，美债收益率和美元指数呈现下跌趋势；（2）5月以来就业疲弱和通胀飙升又引发美债收益率和美元指数出现波动，进而导致人民币汇率出现波动；（3）中国对外贸易的高景气度、经济修复和自身综合实力发展带动的国内资产吸引力提升均提高了人民币需求，推动人民币币值的提升。强出口继续支撑人民币需求。受制于我国资本和金融账户并未实现完全可兑换，利率平价理论的适用性有所弱化，而与之相比经常性项目收支和对外贸易差额对汇率的解释力度更强。全球贸易修复分化背景下，中国对外贸易率先修复。考虑到当前印度、日本等地新冠疫情再度爆发，对全球产能或造成一定负面影响。同时中国产能继续恢复，2021年中国对美出口或继续保持高景气，拉高贸易顺差的同时，为人民币升值提供动力。从美国角度来看，美国的贸易逆差在2020年12月以来逐步增加，截至2021年3月达到744.48亿美元，环比增加5.56%。持续的贸易逆差提高了外币的需求，为美元带来贬值压力。当前美联储左右摇摆，但整体保持偏鸽。将名义美债收益率拆分成通胀预期和实际利率，我们发现，整体上看实际利率的下降幅度更大，体现了当前美国经济修复走弱预期。而美联储在态度上仍然偏鸽派，强调通胀的暂时性和维持低利率的必要性，预计短期内政策收紧的可能性较低。实际利率走低叠加美联储鸽派态度，或导致美债收益率上行动能不足。而美债收益率料将通过中美利差影响人民币汇率。当前中美利差为150bps附近，仍然高于100bps的安全边界，若后续中美利差继续走阔，将进一步提高人民币资产配置价值，从而推动人民币需求提升，拉动人民币升值总结：央行发布的2021年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告提到：‘发挥市场供求在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强人民币汇率弹性，加强宏观审慎管理，稳定市场预期，引导企业和金融机构坚持“风险中性”理念，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。’随着中国自身经济实力的增强，人民币国际化以及金融市场持续开放，人民币汇率双向波动特征将有所加强，人民币汇率将更加市场化。结合我国强劲出口、美国实际利率走低以及美联储整体偏鸽态度等因素，我们认为人民币汇率仍具备走强动能，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。正文2020年6月以来，人民币走出一波强势期，美元兑人民币的即期汇率从高点的7.16一直降至近期最低点6.42。虽然人民币汇率在2021年2月-3月出现贬值，但随后重回升值通道，截至2021年5月20日，美元兑人民币即期汇率录得6.44。我们认为后续人民币仍有升值空间，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。多空因素下人民币双向波动加大，但整体走强今年4月以来人民币重回走强态势，美元兑人民币即期汇率与美元指数的相关性有所提高。本轮人民币升值走势从2020年5月底开始，美元兑人民币的即期汇率从2020年5月28日的高点（7.16）起持续走低，在2021年5月10日曾到达近一年内最低点6.42，最大跌幅达到10.34%。从近期来看，人民币汇率在2021年2月-3月出现贬值，美元兑人民币即期汇率从2月24日的6.45涨至3月30日的6.57。随后人民币重回升值通道，截至2021年5月20日，美元兑人民币即期汇率录得6.44，较2021年高点下跌约1.98%。从美元指数的角度来看，历史上其与美元兑人民币即期汇率的相关性存在一定波动。例如2021年1-2月，美元指数有所上涨，而人民币汇率因为结售汇的支撑表现相对平稳。从2021年3月以来，美元兑人民币即期汇率再次出现与美元指数保持类似走势，二者相关性有所提高。今年以来美元指数先升后降2020年Q2-Q4阶段，中美利差走阔提高了中国资产的配置价值，导致美元贬值。两国10年期国债利差对资金流向具有引导作用，进而引起货币需求变化。以中美两国为例，2020年3月新冠疫情在美国爆发后，美国10年期国债收益率快速下行至0.7%附近，而中国10年期国债则保持在2.6%附近。在2020年Q2-Q4期间，中美利差大幅走阔，于5月中旬突破200bps，叠加避险情绪影响，中国资产配置价值提高，人民币需求提高导致美元贬值。2021Q1，美国经济基本面持续转好叠加美债收益率持续上行，带动美元升值。宏观经济方面，美国2021年一季度的制造业PMI和非制造业PMI屡创新高，其中3月制造业PMI录得64.7，非制造业PMI录得63.7。同时，美债收益率从2021年1月4日的0.93%，涨至3月31日的1.74%，涨幅高达81bps。经济基本面的高景气和美债收益率的持续上行共同作用，推动美元指数从1月4日的89.88涨至3月31日的93.18。2021年4月，美债收益率和美元指数呈现下跌趋势。对于4月美债收益率和美元指数的下行，我们认为其中一个重要的考量因素在于市场对于美联储货币政策的态度，在美联储持续对外释放的维持宽松信号下，市场对于美联储货币政策提前收紧的担忧有所下降。具体来看，4月10年期美债收益率的下行主要来自于实际收益率的下降，而在这期间通胀预期的变动相对有限。从构成美元指数的一揽子货币权重来看，欧洲经济的修复也影响了4月之后的美元指数走势。在美元指数的计算中，欧元权重为57.6%，英镑权重为11.9%，合计达69.5%，因而欧洲地区的经济基本面走势对美元指数的走势产生一定的间接影响。随着欧洲地区主要国家的经济复苏，欧元、英镑等货币走强，造成美元指数的走弱。2021年5月以来美债收益率和美元指数出现波动，进而导致人民币汇率出现波动。进入5月后，美债收益率和美元指数受到就业和通胀数据影响发生波动。一方面，公布的4月非农数据未及预期，美元指数短线快速下行至90.40附近，拉升后继续震荡下行，当日收跌于90.24；10年期美债收益率下降近10bps至1.48%附近。而后公布的通胀数据则大超市场预期，4月未季调核心CPI同比升3%，导致当日10年期美债收益率在数据发布后大幅上行7.3bps，高点冲破1.69%，美元指数高点上逼91。在物价水平飙升但就业市场疲弱的情况下，美联储左右为难，美债收益率和美元指数波动率加大，进而导致人民币汇率出现波动。人民币需求不减经济持续修复下，我国高景气度出口是推动本轮人民币走强的重要原因。对外贸易是观察汇率走势的一个重要角度，理论上一国对外贸易处于顺差时（出口>进口），对该国本币的需求将上升，进而引发本币升值。2020年2季度以来，我国国内疫情得到有效控制，工业生产也逐步恢复，同时海外疫情爆发，全球供需错配背景下我国出口率先反弹，贸易差额也由逆转顺，连续14个月保持贸易顺差状态。其中，2020年11月和12月当月贸易顺差达到疫情以来峰值，对应同期美元兑人民币即期汇率低点。进入2021年，一季度受海外供给恢复影响贸易顺差有所收窄，人民币升值趋势略有回落。但4月份我国进出口均远超预期，贸易顺差的提升再次推动人民币走强。2021年4月外资继续增持我国国债，对人民币汇率形成支撑。2021年3月外资出现小幅减持我国国债，也从一定程度上对当时人民币的贬值有所影响，4月外资重新增持我国国债，4月债券托管总量为32219.45亿元，较3月增加648.6亿元。关于外资持债规模快速增长的主要原因，我们认为有以下几点：（1）同期美债收益率下行，导致中美利差走阔；（2）同期新兴市场疫情扩散，人民币资产吸引避险资金。综上所述，本轮人民币升值行情可从美元指数和人民币需求两个维度进行解释。第一，2021Q1美国经济基本面的快速修复叠加美债收益率持续上行，带动美元升值；随后4月受到实际利率下行、美国经济复苏动能缓和以及欧洲地区经济修复等因素影响，美债收益率和美元指数呈现下跌趋势；5月以来就业和通胀读数又引发美债收益率和美元指数出现小幅波动，进而导致人民币汇率出现波动；第二，中国对外贸易的高景气度支撑本轮人民币走强，2021年4月进出口数据超预期以及外资重新增持我国国债进一步推动人民币币值提升。强出口继续支撑人民币需求受制于我国资本和金融账户并未实现完全可兑换，利率平价理论的适用性有所弱化，而与之相比经常性项目收支和对外贸易差额对汇率的解释力度更强。利率平价理论的核心观点是一国货币的远期汇率差价等于两国利差，虽然该理论在一定程度能够解释人民币汇率变动，但其内在假设包括无交易成本、资本可完全流动等，在中国资本和金融账户未完全开放的环境下，解释力度有所削弱。相比较而言，从经常性项目收支和对外贸易差额对汇率的解释力度更强，尤其是短期内中国进出口处于高景气度，从这一角度分析更具实际意义。全球贸易修复分化背景下，中国对美贸易将继续保持高景气，为人民币走强提供支撑。全球视角来看，中国自2020年6月以来对外出口额转为正增长，尤其是在2020年10月后保持10%以上的高增速。相比之下，美国其他主要贸易伙伴的出口修复则较慢，英国和日本的出口额截至2021年2月仍然为负增长（-3.14%和-0.45%）。从中美贸易来看，2021年以来，中国对美进出口同比保持10%以上增速，4月当月贸易顺差受出口增加和进口减少影响，较3月数据增长约31.5%。考虑到当前印度、日本等地新冠疫情再度爆发，对全球产能造成一定负面影响。在此背景下，中国产能继续恢复，2021年中国对美出口或继续保持高景气，拉高贸易顺差的同时为人民币升值提供动力。美国持续的贸易逆差为美元带来贬值压力。2021年以来，美国制造业与非制造业PMI持续保持在高位，其中2月-4月的制造业PMI以及3月-4月的非制造业PMI均高于60。消费需求方面，美国消费者信心指数同样呈现高增局面，2021年4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数录得88.3。随着美国经济的逐渐修复以及消费端需求的复苏，美国的贸易逆差在2020年12月以来逐步增加，截至2021年3月其贸易逆差达到744.48亿美元，环比增加5.56%。持续的贸易逆差提高了外币的需求，为美元带来贬值压力。当前美联储左右摇摆，但整体保持偏鸽实际利率走低叠加美联储整体偏鸽，或导致美债收益率和美元指数上行动力不足。将名义美债收益率拆分成通胀预期和实际利率，我们发现：一方面，2021年3月中旬以来美国实际利率由升转降，从3月18日的-0.56%降至5月18日的-0.88%，变动幅度32pbs，体现了当前美国经济修复走弱预期。但另一方面货币宽松叠加财政刺激，导致美国国内通胀率快速上行。从影响名义利率的通胀预期来看，2021年3月中旬以来通胀预期持续上行，从3月18日的2.27%升至5月18日的2.52%，变动幅度25bps，而美联储在态度上仍然偏鸽派，强调通胀的暂时性和维持低利率的必要性，预计短期内政策收紧的可能性较低。经济复苏的不平衡与美联储政策取向相互作用，10年期美债收益率上行动力不足。美债收益率的影响通过中美利差传导至人民币汇率。在该逻辑下，美债收益率走低导致中美利差走阔，进而使得美元资产配置价值降低，人民币资产配置价值提升。从历史均值的角度看，11年以来中美利差的均值基本保持在100bps以上；从投资者行为的角度来看，我们对2014年中债境外机构债券托管量有数据以来中美利率与外资购买国债以及外资购买国债和政金债的情况进行了分析，研究发现100bps的中美利差基本可以维持外资不流出我国债市。当前中美利差为150bps附近，仍然高于100bps的安全边界，若后续中美利差继续走阔，将进一步提高人民币资产配置价值，从而推动人民币需求提升，拉动人民币升值。结论人民币汇率双向波动特征将有所加强，人民币汇率将更加市场化。上月中国央行金融研究所所长周诚君在莫干山会议上表示“人民币在中长期内将持续对美元升值，既是中国经济持续增长、人民币相对购买力不断提高的结果，也是美联储搞量化宽松和不断扩表的后果之一。”此外，央行发布的2021年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告也提到：‘发挥市场供求在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强人民币汇率弹性，加强宏观审慎管理，稳定市场预期，引导企业和金融机构坚持“风险中性”理念，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。’随着中国自身经济实力的增强、人民币国际化以及金融市场持续开放，人民币汇率双向波动特征将有所加强，人民币汇率将更加市场化。综上分析，我们认为当前人民币汇率走强动能仍然较强，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。从对外贸易角度分析，考虑到全球其他地区疫情的反复，以及美国内需的修复，短期内中国对美出口将保持强劲，贸易顺差或继续走高，拉动人民币继续升值。另一方面，美国持续的贸易逆差也从美元贬值角度为人民币提供支撑。从美债角度分析，当前美国经济修复走缓导致实际利率下行，叠加美联储偏鸽派态度，短期内美联储收紧货币政策的可能性较低。两方因素共同作用下，我们认为人民币仍有升值空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UCmain":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130590352,"gmtCreate":1621555550676,"gmtModify":1704359466994,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130590352","repostId":"1190176519","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343968580,"gmtCreate":1617670163040,"gmtModify":1704701559663,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343968580","repostId":"2125290764","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364084730,"gmtCreate":1614785479820,"gmtModify":1704775270419,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a43583a9ba17a34199f12c82c5a3526","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","idStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?????","listText":"?????","text":"?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364084730","repostId":"364082865","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":364082865,"gmtCreate":1614785339253,"gmtModify":1704775267299,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"U.S. stocks slip as economic data disappoints and bond yields spike","htmlText":"(March 3)&nbsp;U.S. stocks slip Wednesday, as a jobs report showed weaker-than-expected recovery from the ** pandemic as the vaccine rollout accelerates.","listText":"(March 3)&nbsp;U.S. stocks slip Wednesday, as a jobs report showed weaker-than-expected recovery from the ** pandemic as the vaccine rollout accelerates.","text":"(March 3) U.S. stocks slip Wednesday, as a jobs report showed weaker-than-expected recovery from the ** pandemic as the vaccine rollout 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