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haiwei183

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2025-04-30

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An article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!

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15:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214180192","media":"经济观察报","summary":"留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。","content":"<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1014835943\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/53947f6c3e232c366cc0bd0fd311397d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">经济观察报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-26 15:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6f0ea65681c95c05fc970eb3496d5d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214180192","content_text":"（图片来源：东方IC）记者：谢楚楚 宋笛撤离当地时间2月24日早上6点多，罗兰被电话声吵醒，朋友告诉她战争开始了，让她最好撤离基辅。她赶紧叫家人起来收拾衣服、打包行李，带着几个学生，奔往西部。北京时间2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京决定在顿巴斯进行军事行动，同日，乌克兰首都基辅等城市传出爆炸声。就在罗兰往后备箱装行李时，一架军事飞机从头顶轰鸣而过，罗兰心中一惊，赶忙启程上路。“这是我离战争最近的一次。”罗兰说。小心翼翼，一路向西，罗兰看到了坦克部队在对面逆向而过，沿途的加油站排起了长队，“只能付现金”。直到当晚抵达位于乌克兰西北部的罗夫诺州，罗兰才安顿下来，四周静悄悄的，没有了枪炮的声音，但一家人依然睡得心惊胆战。罗兰对战争的爆发早有预期，经历过2014年乌克兰革命的罗兰颇具警觉性，此前数天，她就已经把家里的护照和文件收拾妥当，并储备了一定的食物和生活用品。与警觉的罗兰不同，一些在乌华人没有选择逃离基辅。一位在乌克兰从事医药贸易的华人告诉经济观察报，她昨晚一夜没睡，躲在防空洞里，一直到2月25日下午才敢回家中收拾东西，准备撤侨回国。截稿前，这位华人又回到地下车库躲避，当地已经实行宵禁，因为车库信号不好，她在出车库临时回复国内长辈信息时才抽空告知记者她的现状，随后又匆匆赶回车库。2月22日，中国驻乌克兰大使馆网站发出了一份请中国公民注意安全的提醒，提醒中提及“乌克兰东部局势发生重大变化”，2月24日又一次发布该提醒；2月25日，大使馆发布紧急通知请拟自乌克兰撤离中国公民进行登记，通知表示为准备分批包机接返有关事宜，现开始人员登记。搭乘包机根据自愿原则。包机派出时间根据飞行安全情况确定，届时将提前通知。李牧之已经下定决心，不打算撤离，他还不清楚大使馆会怎样安排相关人员，比如资费、隔离政策等，他觉得如果要隔离“14+7”天，那还不如留在这里。李牧之乐观地判断，目前局势不太会影响到普通老百姓和居民，回国的必要性不大。李牧之是一位赴乌克兰留学的中国学生。2月24日凌晨四五点左右，睡梦中的李牧之被国内亲戚朋友频繁发来的信息轰炸至醒。在亲戚朋友口中得知俄罗斯将对乌克兰发起军事攻击之后，他决定下楼看看具体情况，因为他并没有听到任何大的动静。李牧之住在距离基辅市中心不远的地方。当地时间24日下午，李牧之来到基辅市中心街道，发现一些媒体在做采访，街上人变少了，除了卖衣服的大型商场、KFC、麦当劳等饮食餐厅关门之外，大型超市、医院、银行、药店未关门。但各个地方都需要排队。在前往市中心了解情况时，李牧之发现地铁是免费开放的，地铁上能看到一些人已经打包好行李准备离开，周边社区出现了少数穿制服的警察，但未看到士兵。他听说，基辅有些人选择了去其他城市避难，有些人选择了在防空洞里面睡觉。“但我们就在家待着，绝大多数人还是在家里待着”。王旭就是在家呆着的其中一位，他在乌克兰的哈尔科夫市，“炮弹不长眼，也不知道安全不安全”，在截稿前一个半小时，还发生了一场持续两三分钟的空袭，王旭赶紧把食物转移到车库内，地下车库聚集了很多邻居。此外，乌克兰已经进入战争状态，按照当地法律，军队有权征用车辆，王旭也不打算去其他的城市，“最好还是呆在家里”。李牧之的一位朋友住在敖德萨，这也是俄军所涉之处。听闻局势动荡，李牧之的朋友也拿起了单反相机外出拍摄记录。他告诉李牧之，外面一切安好。生计与生活直到2月24日，王旭觉得在乌克兰的一切都在正常进行，尽管与俄罗斯矛盾已经持续了若干年。2007年，王旭来到乌克兰留学，因为“当地的留学费用毕竟低一些”，毕业后，王旭留在了一家中国企业的乌克兰分公司，从事机床零件贸易，主要做的是俄语区的贸易。他的妻子是乌克兰人，哈尔科夫是一座“说大不大，说小不小”的城市，上班之外，周末的时间就是和朋友聚会，在附近的商场转一转。像王旭这样，留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。2009年，因为家里企业和乌克兰有合作，罗兰来到乌克兰留学，毕业后留在了当地，与一名中国留学生相识相爱，走入婚姻。罗兰对教育很感兴趣，在大学毕业后，罗兰和朋友因缘际会下创业，做了一家留学机构，这两年公司发展还不错。目前，罗兰一家在基辅买了房和车，两个孩子也在基辅上学，一个5岁，一个3岁，一家人保持中国国籍。疫情之前，他们一年回中国一到两次，疫情后回国不太方便。战争打响后，罗兰被朋友拉入一些华人互助群，群里互相交换信息提供帮助，比如有人会报安全的防空洞地址，有人要去西部，车上还有空位会在群里问有没有人要拼车。据中国驻乌克兰大使馆发布的信息，在乌中国公民约6000人，包括中资企业、留学生和华侨等，主要分布在基辅、利沃夫、哈尔科夫、敖德萨和苏梅等地。2019年，李牧之曾赴乌克兰旅游，2021年6月底再次来到乌克兰留学，虽然这个国家的“昔日辉煌”已不再，但李牧之还是很喜欢它，他决定在这个国家生活一段时间，“乌克兰人外表生冷，内心火热”，李牧之说。如果战争没有发生，李牧之还能照常约朋友到基辅独立广场碰面，在第聂伯河河边散步。但面对如此局面，李牧之并不感到意外。“2014年到现在，他们小规模的战争其实就没停过，只是双方原来的事态没发展到这么严重。这么多年以来，乌克兰边境地区顿涅茨克和俄罗斯的边境地区，一直在擦枪走火”。贸易网络上的中国面孔2021年5月30日，装载着100个标准集装箱的中欧班列自广州白云大朗铁路货运站启程，目的地是乌克兰第四大城市敖德萨。行程全程为8408公里，预计行驶25天，车辆上满载着割草机、电饭锅、茶叶等货物，货重约646吨，货值1059万元人民币。这是华南地区首趟直达乌克兰的中欧班列，也是中国首列开往敖德萨的中欧班列。自2020年开通以来，中国直达乌克兰的中欧班列已经开行57列。2019年，乌克兰海关统计，该年一季度，乌克兰对华贸易占比超过俄罗斯，中国成为乌克兰的第一大贸易伙伴。在2021年，乌克兰与全球235个国家开展了对外贸易。其中，对中国出口最多，达到80多亿元，其中包括1700多万吨铁矿石，823万吨玉米以及300余万吨大麦；同时又从中国进口了100余亿元商品，主要是三轮车、踏板车、踏板汽车等，还包括电话机、杀虫剂以及箱包日用品等。2022年1月14日，新华社刚刚刊发了一篇题为《2021年中乌务实合作取得丰硕成果——访中国驻乌克兰大使范先荣》的文章，范先荣在接受采访时表示，“2021年中乌务实合作在双边贸易、生产投资、交通往来等多方面亮点纷呈。面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击，双边务实合作展现出强劲韧性和巨大潜力”。俄乌冲突也让国内的贸易商也受到了影响。义乌的部分乌克兰贸易企业已经暂时停摆。义乌小商品城的商户告诉经济观察报，目前市场内不安排做发往乌克兰的货品，即使送到了外贸公司也要拉回来，已经在宁波港口的也准备撤回义乌仓库。另一位长期从事对乌贸易的出口企业也收到了对方暂停发货的通知，“什么时候能恢复，我也预计不到。”他说。乌克兰何时能够恢复常态？尚无人能够给出一个准确的信息，但一些华人已经开始怀念此前平凡而日常的生活。“希望早一天能结束，能恢复一切，如常的平静，对老百姓能正常的生活，我觉得这就够了。”李牧之说。福建商人孙晨来乌克兰27年了，主要做鞋的批发生意。他判断战争很难短时间停下来，因此如果撤侨包机来了，肯定会考虑先回国的，之后就要看当地的情况了。“毕竟在这有车有房的，乌克兰百姓也好，（生活）已经习惯了，这里也算得上是第二个故乡。”孙晨说。王旭也希望在政局稳定后再回来，毕竟积累的业务资源都在这里，如果要离开乌克兰，就意味着要重新开始。罗兰一家人都非常喜欢在乌克兰的生活，不打仗的日子是平凡且幸福的，但她深知，乌克兰并不是一个太平的国度。他们在驱车往西的路上，罗兰收到大使馆的消息，大使馆正在统计回国的人数，罗兰一家人都报名了，目前他们正在等待大使馆通知什么时候、以什么方式回到中国。“如果需要我们就撤，但战争结束后我们还想回来，因为我们的房子、车子和工作都在这里。”罗兰说。（应受访者要求，文中罗兰、孙晨为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079381350,"gmtCreate":1657151854270,"gmtModify":1676535958363,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079381350","repostId":"1177613805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177613805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657148501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177613805?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"An article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177613805","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: At the June meeting, Fed officials believe that the July meeting may be suitable for a rate hike of 75 basis points or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to drop to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation; At present, there is a deep-rooted risk of high inflation, and there is concern that the May CPI suggests that inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will pay a higher price. Minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials admitted that rate hike may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, but believed that it may take a longer rate hike to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the outlook for inflation has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow down the economy.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes confirmed that the Fed will discuss at this month's meeting whether to continue the rate hike by 75 basis points or slow it down to 50 basis points.</p><p>According to media comments, some investors believe that the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated, considering that recent data shows that economic growth is slightly slower. This pushed U.S. stocks higher during the session, and the three major indexes that turned down more than once during the session completely got rid of the decline.</p><p>July meeting to consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points</p><p>The Federal Reserve's June meeting decided on a 75 basis point rate hike, the strongest rate hike in more than 27 years. The minutes of this meeting showed that almost all Fed policymakers agreed to June because the labor market supply is very tight, inflation is much higher than the inflation target of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC of 2%, and the recent inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting. rate hike was 75 basis points, and only one voted against rate hike 50 basis points.</p><p>When discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, the participating officials still expect that it is appropriate to continue the rate hike in the future. The minutes specifically mentioned:</p><p>Participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street News Note: That is<b>July meeting</b>）<b>Could fit rate hike 75 basis points or 50 basis points</b>。<b>Attendees</b>It is agreed that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance on (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognize that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may even be more restrictive</b>(even more restrictive). It will take time for inflation to fall to 2% rate hike could lead to a period of economic slowdown</p><p>The minutes showed that at the June meeting, Fed policymakers predicted that it would take time to reduce inflation, and that lowering inflation would come at a price of possible slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention and other factors restricting the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed target. Participants also decided that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for some time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% was the key to achieving sustained full employment. There are deep-rooted risks of high inflation, concerns that May CPI suggests inflation lasts longer than previously expected</p><p>According to the minutes, Fed policymakers at the meeting believed that since inflation is much higher than the Fed's target level, the Fed needs to change to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, because once inflation is higher than expected, the Fed can be in a better position to strengthen its restrictive efforts.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>Now the big risk for the (FOMC) committee is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the Committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation may become deeply ingrained.</b>In this regard, participants stressed that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, are essential to restoring price stability. In terms of inflation, Fed officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation is still too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Attendees<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests inflationary pressures have not shown signs of abating</b>。 Many people (a number of) treat this as<b>Reinforces the view that inflation will be more persistent than they previously expected</b>。 Inflation has upside risks such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, inflation will pay a higher price</p><p>When assessing the economy, Fed officials attending the meeting emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor inflation and developments related to inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed that the risk of inflation was on the upside side, citing a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants determined that the uncertainty of economic growth in the next few years is high.</p><p>Most participants assessed that the outlook for economic growth has downside risks. The downside risks include that further tightening of the financial environment will have a greater negative impact on economic activities than expected, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention on economic growth. The impact exceeded expectations.</p><p>On inflation expectations, the minutes showed that,</p><p>While indicators of long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC Committee's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants are worried that long-term inflation expectations may begin to rise to levels that are not in line with the 2% target. These participants pointed out that if inflation expectations get out of control, it will cost more to let inflation fall back to the FOMC target</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released at midday, U.S. stocks first fell back and then soon rose in the short term. The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose intraday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The US Dollar Index fluctuated upward, breaking 107.00 in the short term and then quickly returning to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by U.S. stocks approaching 107.30 in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield maintained its upward trend. After the minutes were released, it stood at 2.90%. It once rose above 2.92% to set a new daily high. The intraday increase exceeded 10 basis points, which was higher than the intraday test of 2.75% in European stocks on Wednesday. It has rebounded by about 17 basis points from a low in more than one month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>An article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAn article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 07:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: At the June meeting, Fed officials believe that the July meeting may be suitable for a rate hike of 75 basis points or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to drop to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation; At present, there is a deep-rooted risk of high inflation, and there is concern that the May CPI suggests that inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will pay a higher price. Minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials admitted that rate hike may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, but believed that it may take a longer rate hike to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the outlook for inflation has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow down the economy.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes confirmed that the Fed will discuss at this month's meeting whether to continue the rate hike by 75 basis points or slow it down to 50 basis points.</p><p>According to media comments, some investors believe that the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated, considering that recent data shows that economic growth is slightly slower. This pushed U.S. stocks higher during the session, and the three major indexes that turned down more than once during the session completely got rid of the decline.</p><p>July meeting to consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points</p><p>The Federal Reserve's June meeting decided on a 75 basis point rate hike, the strongest rate hike in more than 27 years. The minutes of this meeting showed that almost all Fed policymakers agreed to June because the labor market supply is very tight, inflation is much higher than the inflation target of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC of 2%, and the recent inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting. rate hike was 75 basis points, and only one voted against rate hike 50 basis points.</p><p>When discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, the participating officials still expect that it is appropriate to continue the rate hike in the future. The minutes specifically mentioned:</p><p>Participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street News Note: That is<b>July meeting</b>）<b>Could fit rate hike 75 basis points or 50 basis points</b>。<b>Attendees</b>It is agreed that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance on (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognize that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may even be more restrictive</b>(even more restrictive). It will take time for inflation to fall to 2% rate hike could lead to a period of economic slowdown</p><p>The minutes showed that at the June meeting, Fed policymakers predicted that it would take time to reduce inflation, and that lowering inflation would come at a price of possible slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention and other factors restricting the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed target. Participants also decided that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for some time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% was the key to achieving sustained full employment. There are deep-rooted risks of high inflation, concerns that May CPI suggests inflation lasts longer than previously expected</p><p>According to the minutes, Fed policymakers at the meeting believed that since inflation is much higher than the Fed's target level, the Fed needs to change to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, because once inflation is higher than expected, the Fed can be in a better position to strengthen its restrictive efforts.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>Now the big risk for the (FOMC) committee is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the Committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation may become deeply ingrained.</b>In this regard, participants stressed that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, are essential to restoring price stability. In terms of inflation, Fed officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation is still too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Attendees<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests inflationary pressures have not shown signs of abating</b>。 Many people (a number of) treat this as<b>Reinforces the view that inflation will be more persistent than they previously expected</b>。 Inflation has upside risks such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, inflation will pay a higher price</p><p>When assessing the economy, Fed officials attending the meeting emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor inflation and developments related to inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed that the risk of inflation was on the upside side, citing a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants determined that the uncertainty of economic growth in the next few years is high.</p><p>Most participants assessed that the outlook for economic growth has downside risks. The downside risks include that further tightening of the financial environment will have a greater negative impact on economic activities than expected, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention on economic growth. The impact exceeded expectations.</p><p>On inflation expectations, the minutes showed that,</p><p>While indicators of long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC Committee's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants are worried that long-term inflation expectations may begin to rise to levels that are not in line with the 2% target. These participants pointed out that if inflation expectations get out of control, it will cost more to let inflation fall back to the FOMC target</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released at midday, U.S. stocks first fell back and then soon rose in the short term. The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose intraday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The US Dollar Index fluctuated upward, breaking 107.00 in the short term and then quickly returning to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by U.S. stocks approaching 107.30 in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield maintained its upward trend. After the minutes were released, it stood at 2.90%. It once rose above 2.92% to set a new daily high. The intraday increase exceeded 10 basis points, which was higher than the intraday test of 2.75% in European stocks on Wednesday. It has rebounded by about 17 basis points from a low in more than one month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1177613805","content_text":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通胀会比之前预期持续得更久；若通胀预期失控，降通胀将付出更高代价。美东时间7月6日周三公布的会议纪要显示，6月货币政策会议上，美联储官员承认加息可能导致经济增长放慢，但认为，要避免高通胀变得根深蒂固，可能需要加息时间持续更久。因为通胀前景已恶化，需要让利率升至刻意让经济放缓的限制性水平。同时纪要确认了，联储将在本月的会议上讨论是继续加息75个基点，还是将幅度放缓到50个基点。媒体评论称，考虑到新近数据显示经济增长略为更加放缓，一些投资者认为，美联储在6月会上重申的鹰派立场已经过时。这推动美股盘中走高，盘中不止一次转跌的三大指数彻底摆脱跌势。7月会议考虑是否再加息75个基点美联储6月会议决定加息75个基点，为逾二十七年最大力度加息。本次会议纪要显示，因为考虑到劳动力市场供应非常紧张、通胀远高于美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的通胀目标2%、近期通胀前景自5月联储会议以来已经恶化，几乎所有联储决策者都同意6月加息75个基点，只有一人因支持加息50个基点而投反对票。在讨论未来几次会议可能采取的政策行动时，与会官员依然预期适合未来继续加息，纪要特别提到：与会者判定，下次会议（华尔街见闻注：即7月会议）可能适合加息75个基点或者50个基点。与会者一致认为，经济前景对（货币）政策步入限制性的立场有保障。而且他们认识到，如果高企的通胀压力持续，立场甚至可能要限制性更强（even more restrictive）。通胀降至2%需要时间 加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓纪要显示，6月会上，美联储决策者预计降低通胀需要时间，而且压低通胀将付出经济增长可能放缓的代价。与会者认为，俄乌冲突、中国防疫和其他限制供应环境的因素将影响通胀前景，让通胀回落到联储目标可能需要一些时间。与会者还判定，在让通胀降至2%的过程中，保持强劲的劳动力市场将取决于很多影响供需的因素。与会者认识到，坚定政策可能让经济增长一段时间内放缓，但他们预计，让通胀回到2%是实现持续充分就业的关键。有高通胀根深蒂固的风险 担心5月CPI暗示通胀比之前预期持续得更久纪要称，与会美联储决策者认为，由于通胀远高于联储目标水平，要实现充分就业和价格稳定的双重目标，美联储需要转变为限制性的政策立场。而且，从风险管理的角度看，因为一旦通胀高于预期，美联储就能处于加强限制性力度的更有利地位。很多（many）与会者判定，现在（FOMC）委员会面临的一大风险是，假如公众开始怀疑委员会能否确保调整政策立场的决心，高企的通胀可能变得根深蒂固。在这方面，与会者强调，适宜地坚定货币政策，加之清晰有效的沟通，都对恢复价格稳定至关重要。在通胀方面，与会联储官员指出，通胀仍旧太高，继续远高于长期目标2%。与会者担心，5月CPI数据暗示，通胀压力还未显示减弱的迹象。多人（a number of）将此视为强化了通胀会比他们之前预期的更持久这一观点。通胀有大宗商品涨价等上行风险 若通胀预期失控 降通胀将付出更高代价在评估经济时，与会美联储官员强调，他们非常关注通胀风险，密切监控通胀以及通胀预期相关的发展变化。大多数与会者认为通胀的风险偏上行，并提到多种相关风险，包括持续的供应瓶颈、能源和大宗商品价格上涨。与会者认定，未来几年经济增长的不确定性很高。大部分与会者评估认为，经济增长的前景有偏下行的风险，下行风险包括，金融环境进一步收紧会对经济活动造成比预期更大的负面影响，以及俄乌冲突和中国防疫对经济增长的影响超出预期。在通胀预期方面，纪要显示，虽然来自家庭调查、专业预测方和市场参与者的长期通胀预期指标总体和FOMC委员会的长期通胀目标2%保持一致，但很多与会者担心，长期通胀预期可能开始上行至不符合2%目标的水平。这些与会者指出，假如通胀预期变得失控，让通胀回落到FOMC目标将付出更高的代价。市场反应午盘时段美联储会议纪要公布后，美股先回落后很快短线拉升，三大美股指盘中齐涨。美元指数震荡上行，短线下破107.00后迅速重上107.00，逼近美股早盘时逼近107.30所创的2002年12月以来高位。基准10年期美国国债收益率保持升势，纪要公布后站上2.90%，一度升破2.92%刷新日高，日内升幅超过10个基点，较周三欧股盘中下测2.75%所创的一个多月来低位回升约17个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048063807,"gmtCreate":1656119565809,"gmtModify":1676535770826,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048063807","repostId":"1182322747","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010878503,"gmtCreate":1648346698121,"gmtModify":1676534329574,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010878503","repostId":"1104202250","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010317217,"gmtCreate":1648258116774,"gmtModify":1676534322778,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010317217","repostId":"1175213400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056450267,"gmtCreate":1655077840159,"gmtModify":1676535555831,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056450267","repostId":"2243743215","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243743215","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655075294,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243743215?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 07:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Highlight! Fed rate hike Storm Continues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243743215","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"鲍威尔将在美联储为期两天的会议后向媒体作简报。Astra Space火箭发射任务失败 NASA气象卫星丢失周日，美国火箭公司Astra Space将小型天气监测NASA卫星送入轨道的任务失败了。失败发生在Astra火箭3.3从佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角太空部队发射台成功发射大约10分钟后。美国5月份消费者价格同比涨幅意外加速至8.6%，创40年新高，可能会推动美联储延长激进的加息周期。埃里安再次批评美联储在通胀方面“落后”，并表示他预计在本周的利率会议上加息50个基点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The highlight! Fed to rate hike this week, but Powell speech may be particularly important</b><b>2. Summers urges the Fed to face up to the severity of inflation and says the risk of recession is imminent</b><b>3. Oil prices continue to soar, UK orders review of fuel market</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTR\">Astra Space</a>Rocket Launch Mission Fails, NASA Weather Satellite Lost</b><b>5. Dutch regulators said<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Additional payment methods will be available in dating apps</b><b>6. Allianz chief economist says Fed action \"lags behind\" U.S. inflation rate may reach 9%</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2adadd4cdfbf839dcfc63699815f5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Highlight! Fed to rate hike this week, but Powell speech may be particularly important</b></p><p>The important events in the coming week may all come down to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at 2:30 p.m. EST on Wednesday.</p><p>Powell will brief the media after the Fed's two-day meeting. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the federal funds target rate range by 0.5 percentage points, but the red-hot inflation data in May has caused the market to worry about whether policymakers will be more aggressive or predict a faster pace of future rate hike.</p><p>Stocks and bonds have been volatile amid investors' concerns that inflation may not peak and that rate hike could lead to a recession.</p><p>Stocks tumbled after Friday's May consumer price index came in well above expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 5.1%. The index closed Friday at 3,900 points, down 2.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c979b143c8dcaab8d1f208af870ba0a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Summers urges Fed to face up to the severity of inflation, saying recession risk is imminent</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers urged the Federal Reserve to realize the seriousness of inflation, which has accelerated to its highest level in 40 years by the time policymakers meet this week and the risk of a recession is looming.</p><p>\"When inflation is as high as it is and unemployment is as low as it is, there is almost always a recession within two years,\" he said on CNN's \"State of the Union\" Sunday. When it comes to inflation, \"the Fed's forecasts tend to be overly optimistic, and I hope they are fully aware of the seriousness of the problem.\"</p><p>Summers pointed to the risk of a possible recession next year, though he said it was \"more likely\" within the next two years.</p><p>Summers, who has been predicting high inflation since last year, said the path of inflation depends on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on oil prices. U.S. consumer prices rose 8.6% year-over-year in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a35993591bceb2e3ecfd4a9b8961ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>UK orders fuel market review as oil prices continue to surge</b></p><p>The UK government has asked the competition watchdog to review the retail fuel market to see whether tariff cuts have been passed on to consumers as prices at petrol stations reach unprecedented highs.</p><p>Britain's Business Secretary Kwarteng said on Sunday that the investigation will find out why fuel prices are always rising fast but falling slowly.</p><p>The UK cut fuel duty by 5p a litre for a year in March in a £ 5 bn ($6.2bn) package to ease the burden on motorists amid a growing cost-of-living crunch for families.</p><p>However, fuel prices continue to rise in the UK, with the average cost of refueling a family car exceeding 100lbs for the first time last week. The British people are frustrated that the £ 5 billion package has not been passed on to fuel prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ef7448a731908a5f6838b48b9973cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Astra Space Rocket Launch Mission Fails, NASA Weather Satellite Lost</b></p><p>U.S. rocket company Astra Space's mission to send small weather-monitoring NASA satellites into orbit failed on Sunday. It is reported that the second-stage booster engine was shut down early in early space.</p><p>The failure occurred about 10 minutes after the successful launch of the Astra rocket 3.3 from the Space Force launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida.</p><p>\"We made a nominal first-stage flight. However, the engine of the higher stage did shut down early, and we didn't put the payload into orbit,\" Astra said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d797560c158b6042e149885c94c1dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Dutch regulator says Apple will offer other payment methods in dating app</b></p><p>Apple Inc. will allow different payment methods in the Dutch dating app, the Dutch antitrust regulator said on Saturday, ending a dispute that led to a 50 million euro ($52.58 million) fine for the company.</p><p>The Dutch Consumer and Markets Authority (AMC) said in a statement: With this concession, Apple will meet the requirements set by regulators under EU and Dutch competition rules.</p><p>Apple has long mandated the use of its in-app payment system, which charges a commission of up to 30%, which some developers like Tinder owner Match Group Inc think is too high.</p><p>\"In the digital economy, powerful companies have a special responsibility to keep markets fair and open. Apple has evaded this responsibility and abused its dominant position as a dating app provider,\" said Martijn Snoep, chairman of the ACM board.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b4560aea1e2ff209bde08e7fb0a0f3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Allianz chief economist says Fed action'lags behind 'US inflation could hit 9%</b></p><p>Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist of Allianz Group, believes that the inflation rate in the United States is likely to rise further, while recession risks are \"currently tilting in a negative way.\"</p><p>\"I think you have to be very modest about what we know about the inflation process,\" El-Erian said Sunday. \"And I'm afraid it's going to get worse. At this rate, we're likely to get to 9%.\"</p><p>U.S. consumer price gains unexpectedly accelerated to a 40-year high of 8.6% year-over-year in May, potentially pushing the Federal Reserve to extend its aggressive rate hike cycle.</p><p>El-Erian once again criticized the Fed for \"lagging behind\" on inflation and said he expects a 50 basis point rate hike at this week's interest rate meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Highlight! Fed rate hike Storm Continues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Highlight! Fed rate hike Storm Continues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-13 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The highlight! Fed to rate hike this week, but Powell speech may be particularly important</b><b>2. Summers urges the Fed to face up to the severity of inflation and says the risk of recession is imminent</b><b>3. Oil prices continue to soar, UK orders review of fuel market</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTR\">Astra Space</a>Rocket Launch Mission Fails, NASA Weather Satellite Lost</b><b>5. Dutch regulators said<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Additional payment methods will be available in dating apps</b><b>6. Allianz chief economist says Fed action \"lags behind\" U.S. inflation rate may reach 9%</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2adadd4cdfbf839dcfc63699815f5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Highlight! Fed to rate hike this week, but Powell speech may be particularly important</b></p><p>The important events in the coming week may all come down to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at 2:30 p.m. EST on Wednesday.</p><p>Powell will brief the media after the Fed's two-day meeting. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the federal funds target rate range by 0.5 percentage points, but the red-hot inflation data in May has caused the market to worry about whether policymakers will be more aggressive or predict a faster pace of future rate hike.</p><p>Stocks and bonds have been volatile amid investors' concerns that inflation may not peak and that rate hike could lead to a recession.</p><p>Stocks tumbled after Friday's May consumer price index came in well above expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 5.1%. The index closed Friday at 3,900 points, down 2.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c979b143c8dcaab8d1f208af870ba0a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Summers urges Fed to face up to the severity of inflation, saying recession risk is imminent</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers urged the Federal Reserve to realize the seriousness of inflation, which has accelerated to its highest level in 40 years by the time policymakers meet this week and the risk of a recession is looming.</p><p>\"When inflation is as high as it is and unemployment is as low as it is, there is almost always a recession within two years,\" he said on CNN's \"State of the Union\" Sunday. When it comes to inflation, \"the Fed's forecasts tend to be overly optimistic, and I hope they are fully aware of the seriousness of the problem.\"</p><p>Summers pointed to the risk of a possible recession next year, though he said it was \"more likely\" within the next two years.</p><p>Summers, who has been predicting high inflation since last year, said the path of inflation depends on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on oil prices. U.S. consumer prices rose 8.6% year-over-year in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a35993591bceb2e3ecfd4a9b8961ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>UK orders fuel market review as oil prices continue to surge</b></p><p>The UK government has asked the competition watchdog to review the retail fuel market to see whether tariff cuts have been passed on to consumers as prices at petrol stations reach unprecedented highs.</p><p>Britain's Business Secretary Kwarteng said on Sunday that the investigation will find out why fuel prices are always rising fast but falling slowly.</p><p>The UK cut fuel duty by 5p a litre for a year in March in a £ 5 bn ($6.2bn) package to ease the burden on motorists amid a growing cost-of-living crunch for families.</p><p>However, fuel prices continue to rise in the UK, with the average cost of refueling a family car exceeding 100lbs for the first time last week. The British people are frustrated that the £ 5 billion package has not been passed on to fuel prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ef7448a731908a5f6838b48b9973cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Astra Space Rocket Launch Mission Fails, NASA Weather Satellite Lost</b></p><p>U.S. rocket company Astra Space's mission to send small weather-monitoring NASA satellites into orbit failed on Sunday. It is reported that the second-stage booster engine was shut down early in early space.</p><p>The failure occurred about 10 minutes after the successful launch of the Astra rocket 3.3 from the Space Force launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida.</p><p>\"We made a nominal first-stage flight. However, the engine of the higher stage did shut down early, and we didn't put the payload into orbit,\" Astra said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d797560c158b6042e149885c94c1dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Dutch regulator says Apple will offer other payment methods in dating app</b></p><p>Apple Inc. will allow different payment methods in the Dutch dating app, the Dutch antitrust regulator said on Saturday, ending a dispute that led to a 50 million euro ($52.58 million) fine for the company.</p><p>The Dutch Consumer and Markets Authority (AMC) said in a statement: With this concession, Apple will meet the requirements set by regulators under EU and Dutch competition rules.</p><p>Apple has long mandated the use of its in-app payment system, which charges a commission of up to 30%, which some developers like Tinder owner Match Group Inc think is too high.</p><p>\"In the digital economy, powerful companies have a special responsibility to keep markets fair and open. Apple has evaded this responsibility and abused its dominant position as a dating app provider,\" said Martijn Snoep, chairman of the ACM board.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b4560aea1e2ff209bde08e7fb0a0f3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Allianz chief economist says Fed action'lags behind 'US inflation could hit 9%</b></p><p>Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist of Allianz Group, believes that the inflation rate in the United States is likely to rise further, while recession risks are \"currently tilting in a negative way.\"</p><p>\"I think you have to be very modest about what we know about the inflation process,\" El-Erian said Sunday. \"And I'm afraid it's going to get worse. At this rate, we're likely to get to 9%.\"</p><p>U.S. consumer price gains unexpectedly accelerated to a 40-year high of 8.6% year-over-year in May, potentially pushing the Federal Reserve to extend its aggressive rate hike cycle.</p><p>El-Erian once again criticized the Fed for \"lagging behind\" on inflation and said he expects a 50 basis point rate hike at this week's interest rate meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-13/doc-imizmscu6490264.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2adadd4cdfbf839dcfc63699815f5d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4564":"太空概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ASTR":"Astra Space","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-13/doc-imizmscu6490264.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243743215","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、重头戏！美联储将在本周加息 但鲍威尔讲话可能尤为重要 2、萨默斯敦促美联储正视通胀严重性 并称衰退风险近在眼前3、油价持续飙升 英国下令对燃料市场进行审查4、Astra Space火箭发射任务失败 NASA气象卫星丢失5、荷兰监管机构称苹果将在约会应用中提供其他支付方式6、安联首席经济学家称美联储行动“落后” 美国通胀率可能达到9%重头戏！美联储将在本周加息 但鲍威尔讲话可能尤为重要未来一周重要事件可能都归结为美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔在美国东部时间周三下午2：30发表的讲话。鲍威尔将在美联储为期两天的会议后向媒体作简报。外界普遍预计美联储将把联邦基金目标利率区间上调0.5个百分点，但5月份炙手可热的通胀数据令市场担心决策者是否会更加激进或预测未来加息步伐会更快。由于投资者担心通胀可能不会见顶，以及加息可能导致经济衰退，股票和债券一直波动。周五的5月消费者价格指数远高于预期后，股市暴跌。本周，标普500指数下跌 5.1%。该指数周五收于3900点，下跌 2.9%。萨默斯敦促美联储正视通胀严重性 并称衰退风险近在眼前美国前财政部长萨默斯敦促美联储意识到通胀的严重性，在政策制定者本周开会时，通胀已经加速至40年来的最高水平，经济衰退的风险即将来临。他周日在美国有线电视新闻网的“国情咨文”节目中说：“当通货膨胀像现在这样高而失业率像现在这样低时，几乎总是在两年内出现衰退。” 谈到通胀，“美联储的预测往往过于乐观，我希望他们能充分意识到问题的严重性。”萨默斯指出明年可能出现衰退的风险，不过他表示，未来两年内“更有可能”发生。自去年以来一直在预测高通胀的萨默斯表示，通胀的路径取决于俄乌冲突及其对油价的影响。美国5月份消费者价格同比上涨 8.6%，这表明价格压力在经济中变得根深蒂固。油价持续飙升 英国下令对燃料市场进行审查英国政府已要求竞争监管机构审查零售燃料市场，以了解随着加油站价格达到前所未有的高位，是否已将关税削减转嫁给消费者。英国商务部长夸滕周日表示，调查将找出为什么燃料价格总是快速上涨但缓慢下降的原因。英国在3月份以50亿英镑（合62亿美元）的一揽子计划将燃油税每升降低5便士，为期一年，以减轻家庭生活成本紧缩日益严重的情况下驾驶者的负担。然而，英国燃油价格继续上涨，上周家用汽车的平均加油成本首次超过100磅。英国人民对50亿英镑的一揽子计划未被传递到燃油价格感到沮丧。Astra Space火箭发射任务失败 NASA气象卫星丢失周日，美国火箭公司Astra Space将小型天气监测NASA卫星送入轨道的任务失败了。据悉，第二级助推发动机在太空早期提前关闭。失败发生在Astra火箭3.3从佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角太空部队发射台成功发射大约10分钟后。“我们进行了名义上的第一级飞行。但是，更高一级的发动机确实提前关闭，我们没有将有效载荷送入轨道，”Astra公司表示。荷兰监管机构称苹果将在约会应用中提供其他支付方式荷兰反垄断监管机构周六表示，苹果公司将允许在荷兰约会应用程序中使用不同的支付方式，结束导致该公司被罚款 5000 万欧元（5258 万美元）的纠纷。荷兰消费者和市场管理局 （AMC） 在一份声明中表示：通过这一让步，苹果将满足监管机构根据欧盟和荷兰竞争规则制定的要求。苹果公司长期以来一直强制使用其应用内支付系统，该系统收取高达30%的佣金，Tinder所有者 Match Group Inc 等一些开发商认为这太高了。“在数字经济中，强大的公司负有保持市场公平和开放的特殊责任。苹果回避了这一责任，并滥用了其在约会应用程序提供商方面的主导地位，”ACM董事会主席 Martijn Snoep 表示。安联首席经济学家称美联储行动“落后” 美国通胀率可能达到9%安联集团首席经济学家穆罕默德-埃尔-埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）认为，美国的通胀率可能会进一步上升，而衰退风险“目前正以负面的方式倾斜”。“我认为你必须对我们对通胀过程的了解保持非常谦虚，”El-Erian 周日表示。“而且我担心情况还会变得更糟。按照这个速度，我们很可能会达到9%。”美国5月份消费者价格同比涨幅意外加速至8.6%，创40年新高，可能会推动美联储延长激进的加息周期。埃里安再次批评美联储在通胀方面“落后”，并表示他预计在本周的利率会议上加息50个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"ASTR":1,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"DOG":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":254434989961504,"gmtCreate":1703154573703,"gmtModify":1703154578000,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good game join&nbsp; join","listText":"Good game join&nbsp; join","text":"Good game join join","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254434989961504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9901388779,"gmtCreate":1659139738791,"gmtModify":1676536262480,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9901388779","repostId":"1182404599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182404599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659087664,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182404599?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-29 17:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182404599","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"第三季度或是美股和港股2022年重要的投资时间窗口美股方面，联储尚处于加息通道，且宏观层面有滞胀预期，但我们认为美股在第三季度会有一轮反弹。这主要得益于三季度的信息真空期：1）宏观层面，CPI同比难创","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The third quarter may be an important investment time window for US stocks and Hong Kong stocks in 2022</b></p><p>In terms of U.S. stocks, the Federal Reserve is still in a rate hike channel, and there are expectations of stagflation at the macro level, but we believe that U.S. stocks will rebound in the third quarter. This is mainly due to the information vacuum period in the third quarter: 1) At the macro level, it is difficult for CPI to hit a new high year-on-year. It is only a matter of how much it will decline from July to August. GDP is a lagging indicator of the market and has limited impact on future stock price trends; 2) At the micro level, there is no catalyst for downward revision of corporate performance during the mid-term report season; 3) At the monetary level, the September FOMC meeting is still some time away, and the Fed's attitude has turned marginally dovish. On the disk, after the negative factors were quickly cleared, U.S. stocks can still rise day by day, reflecting that U.S. stock investors have abundant bullish strength.</p><p>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell from July last year to March this year. The low-level volatility pattern has been maintained for a quarter, and the rebound potential is sufficient. Fundamentally, we believe that China's macro-economy has bottomed out in the second quarter, and the downward revision trend of individual stock performance is expected to end in the mid-term report season. There may be two situations in the second half of this year: 1) If there is a rebound in the third quarter, we recommend that investors be cautious in the fourth quarter; 2) It fluctuated at low levels in the third quarter and rebounded in the fourth quarter. In either case, we recommend that investors lay out in the third quarter and prepare for a rebound.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p>We provide investors with 4 rebound logics: 1) The profit forecast has not been lowered, but the valuation repair logic brought about by the oversold stock price; 2) Find a business model that resists stagflation; 3) Use high growth momentum to break through economic recession; 4) The mandatory demand for institutional investors to cover positions brought about by early oversold. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Company: Plenty of room for valuation repair; The business model is rigid at the beginning of the economic recession; It belongs to an emerging industry with a high growth rate; The previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. In line with 4/4 rebound logic, it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicle</b>Manufacturer: Plenty of room for valuation repair; Located on the sweet spot of the permeability curve, the growth rate is expected to be high; The optional consumer sector to which it belongs has experienced a large decline in the early stage, and investors have the need to cover their positions. In line with 3/4 rebound logic, the second push.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor</b>Industry: There is room for valuation repair; Good cost transmission ability and anti-inflation; High growth rate; Oversold in the early stage. It conforms to the 4/4 rebound logic, but there is a risk that the performance will be high before and then low. Recommended.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p>We provide investors with 2 main rebound logics: 1) The valuation repair logic brought about by a small/no reduction in profit forecast, but a large decline; 2) Risk appetite rises, and growth stocks benefit from the logic. And 2 secondary logics: 1) Treat the company's early repurchase behavior as management's endorsement of fundamentals; 2) Look for arbitrage space in companies with high premiums for AH shares. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors, especially<b>CXO</b>And<b>Biological drugs</b>。 They have sufficient room for valuation repair and are expected to grow at a high rate, which is expected to benefit from rising risk appetite. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, and it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. They also have better valuation repair space and higher performance growth expectations, but they must be alert to the risk of high performance before and then low performance. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, but there is 1 risk, which is the second push.</p><p>3. Also recommended<b>Internet companies</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Technology Index</b>。</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p><b>Overall outlook for U.S. stocks' trading logic in the third quarter</b></p><p>We believe that the third quarter will be an important time window for investing in US stocks this year. In the third quarter, we saw three periods of information vacuum:</p><p>1. Vacuum period of macro data. Judging from high-frequency data such as commodities, it is difficult for the CPI from July to August to exceed the 9.1% year-on-year increase in June, which is nothing more than the difference in the size of the decline. In terms of GDP, the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was-0.9% month-on-month, but the overall GDP is an indicator that lags behind the broader market, and the expected pattern of macro recession has been finalized (the inversion of US Treasury yields in 10-2 years has stabilized) does not generally constitute the impact of the market trend.</p><p>2. The vacuum period of corporate profit performance. Since the arrival of the interim report season, the semi-annual performance of U.S. stock companies has generally been in line with expectations. Although economic recession expectations are gradually taking shape at the macro level, there is still a lack of catalyst for the downward revision of corporate performance at the micro level, and we need to further wait for the performance of companies in the third quarter.</p><p>3. The vacuum period of monetary policy. Rate hike's 75bp boots landed in July, and the market expects the pace of rate hike to slow down in September. Consistent with market expectations, Fed officials' speeches and FOMC statements turned significantly marginally dove. This tendency has a small probability of reversal in the short term. At the same time, there are still 2 months before the next boots land.</p><p>From the disk point of view, we realize that the bullish power in the US market is still sufficient-the negative factors are quickly cleared in the market, and then the stock market can return to the upward trend day by day. Therefore, we believe that the third quarter of this year is an important time window for U.S. stock investment, and investors are expected to benefit from the rebound.</p><p><b>The investment logic of the US stock rebound and the first industry</b></p><p>In this rebound strategy, we use four sets of logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>: If the company's profit forecast has been raised (or not lowered), but the stock price has fallen, it will enjoy the opportunity of priority valuation repair in the rebound market;</p><p>2.<b>Stagflation-resistant business model</b>: In the case of stagflation expectations at the macro level, companies whose business models can naturally withstand economic recession or high inflation will be favored by investors in the rebound market;</p><p>3.<b>Growth stock logic</b>: Take offense as defense, and break through the limitations of the economic recession environment with higher growth momentum;</p><p>4.<b>Oversold logic</b>: It fell much in the early stage, and it may rise much in the later stage. For institutional investors, the sectors with larger declines may have exceeded the preset lower limit of allocation ratio, and they will have to cover their positions in these oversold sectors.</p><p>We make a summary of the recommended industries:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Inc. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the prepaid income is accrued according to time, and the business model has strong short-term anti-recession ability; Logic 3, emerging industries with high growth potential; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. SaaS companies in the software industry are the intersection of four rebound logics, and are the first to be recommended.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicles in automobiles</b>。 In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; In line with logic three, it is located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, the growth rate is expected to be high, and it is expected to cross the cycle; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and there was a need to cover positions. Four logics account for three, recommended.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor Industry</b>It is also one of our key recommendations. The main opportunities lie in the new energy fields and cloud computing fields, giving priority to public products. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the competitive landscape is stable, with strong bargaining power and cost transmission ability; In line with logic three, the growth rate is expected to be high; In line with logic 4, there is a need to cover positions. The risk lies in the large sales volume of servers and computers in the early stage, and there is a risk of overdraft demand. We must be wary of high performance before and low performance. Semiconductors account for all four rebound logics, but there is one risk, which is recommended.</p><p>4. In addition, we recommend that investors consider the hotel and entertainment sectors driven by the recovery of the epidemic, and the pharmaceutical CXO sector with large room for valuation recovery.</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>The first logic to look for a rebound is valuation repair. Specific to the execution level, we believe that the performance expectation has not been revised downward, but stocks whose stock prices have fallen will have room for valuation repair during the rebound, showing stronger flexibility. For performance expectations, we use the adjustment range of Bloomberg's consensus expected profit of listed companies in 2023 (if the company is not profitable, we use the revenue adjustment range instead); Stock Price Performance, we use the company's stock price movement year-to-date.</p><p>We did a simple +13% treatment for the stock price decline (13% is the average decline of our sample stocks) to offset the stock price pressure that liquidity tightening brings to be fair for all stocks. For the processed rise and fall, we call it \"relative rise and fall\". If the performance adjustment range of a company minus the relative increase or decrease of the stock price is greater than 0%, it means that the stock has room for valuation repair. That is, the following formula:</p><p>Valuation repair space = performance adjustment range-relative increase and decrease</p><p>One point to add is that in addition to the quantitative limitation of valuation repair space, valuation repair also has a qualitative requirement-it must fall in the early stage, not rise. A typical case that is not suitable for valuation repair logic is the energy sector. Since the beginning of the year, the performance increase of the energy sector has been greater than the increase in stock prices. However, the stock price is generally rising, not falling, so there is no way to talk about a \"rebound\".</p><p>From the data point of view, the sectors with large room for valuation repair are:</p><p>1.<b>Non-daily consumer goods (optional consumption)-automobile segment</b>There is a lot of room for valuation repair. But looking at it, the valuation restoration space of this sector is basically concentrated on new energy vehicle manufacturers represented by Tesla (TSLA US).</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology-Semiconductor Segment</b>, the performance in the first half of this year was generally raised, but the stock price fell. Subdivided companies with large room for valuation repair include automotive semiconductor manufacturers (such as ON Semiconductor ON US) and GPU manufacturers with cloud concepts (such as NVDA US and AMD US).</p><p>3.<b>IT-Software Industry</b>The differentiation of valuation repair space is relatively serious, but there are some stocks with advanced valuation repair space, generally SaaS companies.</p><p>4.<b>Healthcare-Life Sciences Tools & Services (CXO)</b>Generally, there is a certain room for valuation repair. Includes some companies whose performance has been revised upward, but whose stock prices have fallen sharply.</p><p>5.<b>Information Technology-Communication equipment</b>The change in performance expectations is relatively stable, but the decline is relatively large. It is expected to attract the attention of defensive-style investors in the next rally.</p><p>Those industries that have a lot of room for valuation repair, but we do not highly recommend:</p><p>1.<b>Finance-Commercial Banking</b>There is also a relatively large room for valuation repair, mainly due to the relatively large increase in bank performance in the early stage, which has a certain allocation value. However, banks have a large market value and are not our first choice when pursuing a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>energy</b>The valuation repair space readings are high. However, in the first half of the year, energy was on the rise, and there was no way to talk about a \"rebound\", so we do not recommend it.</p><p>3.<b>Industrial-Building Products</b>There is relatively large room for valuation repair, but their performance expectations generally show a slight downward trend, and there may be a lack of catalysts for rebound.</p><p>4.<b>Raw materials</b>The industry is facing pressure from high-frequency commodity price data peaking and falling back. At the same time, due to high operating leverage, slight changes in revenue may cause drastic fluctuations in profits. We recommend careful consideration.</p><p>5. We will not go into details about industries with too small sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcf7716e176d14fb293c49d27e6d3cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ec42def97349edfa95c07fdf1879cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c824c1fc42398bc9fc05b99707ff3b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bf5f271d8a8fa1ac2d7d52b0152d62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Anti-stagflation business model</b></p><p>The two key words of stagflation, one is \"stagflation\"-representing economic recession; One is \"inflation\"-representing rising costs. So, we need to find a business model that can fight the recession or transmit costs. We will give examples of several industries.</p><p><b>Software Industry SaaS Company</b></p><p>SaaS companies in the software industry are one of our most optimistic segments. Their revenue side adopts the customer prepaid subscription model, charging customers a fee in advance, determining the length of service time, and then recognizing this fee as revenue monthly/quarterly. On the cost side, the main cost of SaaS companies is marketing expenditure, and marketing expenditure is also paid to sales staff first, and then gradually confirmed with revenue. Therefore, SaaS companies will show strong performance rigidity and reflect their advantages in the early stages of the economic recession. Examples of such SaaS companies include cloud platform security system provider Datadog (DDOG US), cloud data platform company Zscaler (ZS US), and identification system company OKTA (OKTA US).</p><p>At the same time, we should be cautious about other models of software companies. Their revenue comes from IT expenditure in enterprise capital expenditure-an expenditure that is highly sensitive to the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Internet intermediary platform</b></p><p>In terms of fighting inflation, we believe that some Internet intermediary platforms will perform very well. Their revenue is usually based on GMV-the volume of transactions on the platform, multiplied by a fixed rate (take rate). With high inflation, their GMV will rise with rapidly increasing prices. An example of this is Airbnb (ABNB US), which provides travelers with accommodation intermediary services and charges based on GBV (a variation of GMV). Since the year-on-year growth rate of hotel projects in the CPI has been at a high level of about 20% recently, Airbnb's GBV, and then revenue, will also be driven upward by the higher growth rate of wine and travel prices. Some companies under the Internet Marketing and Direct Retail segment also fall into this category, such as Amazon (AMZN US) and eBay (EBAY US).</p><p><b>Semiconductor Manufacturing</b></p><p>In addition, we are optimistic about some manufacturing companies with strong bargaining power, such as the semiconductor manufacturing industry-they have high technical barriers and a relatively stable market structure. For leaders, there is some room to increase prices according to demand. This helps them transmit the pressure on the cost side downstream. In these companies, the price of consumer products, such as CPUs used in PCs, will be relatively inelastic. Companies with a higher proportion of corporate business will have a greater advantage, because corporate products are more price elastic than consumer products. More typical examples are automotive semiconductor manufacturers, such as ON US.</p><p><b>Logic 3: Growth stock logic</b></p><p>As we mentioned in our interim strategy report, growth is precious in times of economic downturn. We believe growth is the best defense. Therefore, we also recommend that investors give priority to industries and targets with higher expected growth rates. If these targets also have the previous two logics, it is the best choice.</p><p>At present, several industries with relatively high expected growth rates are as follows:</p><p>1.<b>Optional consumption</b>, the main growth point is<b>automobile</b>And<b>Hotel catering</b>INDUSTRY. Wherein,<b>automobile</b>There is a big differentiation within the sector. New energy car companies Tesla (TSLA US) and Lucid (LCID US) have higher growth expectations, while the growth expectations of traditional car companies are relatively mediocre.<b>Hotel catering</b>It mainly benefits from the fact that the hotel industry is recovering from the epidemic, with two driving factors: low base and concentrated demand outbreak, and the growth rate of catering (especially fast food) is relatively mediocre.</p><p>2.<b>Communication Services</b>In the plate,<b>recreation</b>The growth rate of the industry is relatively strong. The main high-growth companies are Walt Disney (DIS US) involved in travel concepts, concert hosting company Live Nation (LYV US) and game company Electronic Arts (EA US). The first two mainly benefit from the recovery of social activities, while the latter has a relatively stable and rapid growth in in-game value-added service revenue.</p><p>3.<b>Information Technology</b>Under-plate<b>Semiconductor</b>And<b>Software industry</b>。 Wherein,<b>Semiconductor</b>There are many high-growth companies in the industry. But we must be wary of companies with high growth expectations in 2022 and low growth expectations in 2023. Because the sales of computers and servers are relatively high in the near future, we should be wary of the risk of overdraft of early demand and the performance of related companies in 2022 will be high before and then low. We focus on selecting companies that analysts believe can still increase their performance in 2023, such as MRVL US, Enphase Energy (ENPH US), SolarEdge Technology (SEDG US), and Nvidia (NVDA US).<b>Software industry</b>, we believe that it should be further distinguished into traditional software companies and SaaS companies. The expected growth rate of SaaS companies is second only to the new energy vehicle sector, such as Datadog (DDOG US) and Zscaler (ZS US), which are our highly recommended industries.</p><p>4. For industries with high CAGR but too uneven growth rates or too small sample sizes in 2022 and 2023, we do not recommend sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e221f9b70bf80ea6a2d3d13e63ec9436\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea2617cdcee9c2759498d8c8d540948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f8b0b4d4d07b5ee9bdd21a35855718\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a6e719cf587946d7cf63bb33bae409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: Oversold logic</b></p><p>Since institutional investors usually have pre-determined position structure requirements (for example, the proportion of a certain sector's shareholding in the investment portfolio must be within a certain range), in the case of uneven rises and falls of various sectors in the market, the previous increase The sector with a larger increase will face a greater selling pressure, and the sector with a larger decline will benefit from investors' demand for covering positions.</p><p>We use the GICS plate as a reference standard. It is not difficult to see that the performance of the U.S. stock energy sector in the first half of 2022 is unique. This means that the proportion of stocks in the energy sector in the positions of institutional investors may have exceeded the predetermined upper limit of the position ratio. In this case, investors will have to reduce their holdings of shares in the energy sector. On the contrary,<b>Communication Services</b>、<b>Optional consumption</b>And<b>Information Technology</b>Sectors have experienced large year-to-date declines, so they are more likely to have broken through the lower limit of investors' positions in these sectors, in which case investors will have to increase their allocation to these sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e5300923df0191ae42145fa455991\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: Be wary of high-frequency production/sales data</b></p><p>One point that needs to be emphasized is that we believe that the performance expectations of US stock companies are not without room for downward adjustment, but there is a short-term lack of catalysts. Therefore, when we use the information vacuum to trade, we must be alert to the emergence of high-frequency data, such as retail data-they cover food and beverage, automobiles, drugs, clothing, energy and other segments. Therefore, if we seize short-term opportunities in the US market with stagflation expectations, these areas need to be extra cautious. In terms of price data, we don't think there is need to worry too much, because as far as we have observed so far, the market is generally price-neutral in fundamental trading.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p><b>Brief introduction of short-term market conditions of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Since the high point in February 2021, the Hang Seng Index first experienced a plateau period from March to June, remaining volatile at 29,000 points. The decline began in July 2021 and bottomed out in March 2022. The Hang Seng Index is currently fluctuating at a low level of 20,000-23,000 points. From a macro perspective, China's economy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the macro aspect is expected to achieve a V-shaped reversal in the third quarter. From a micro perspective, the downward revision trend of company performance in the Hong Kong stock market has continued for a whole year from July 2021 to the present. With the advent of the performance period in the second quarter, we believe that the downward revision of performance is expected to be generally completed before the silent period, and the market's expectation of the company is expected to stabilize with the end of the performance period. For now, we believe that Hong Kong stocks have accumulated strong rebound potential. There are two possibilities in the second half of the year:</p><p>1. Hong Kong stocks rebounded in the third quarter. Then our suggestion is that investors can consider completing the layout and taking profits in the third quarter, and wait and see cautiously in the fourth quarter.</p><p>2. Hong Kong stocks maintained a low and volatile trend in the third quarter. Then we believe that Hong Kong stocks will achieve a U-shaped reversal in the fourth quarter of this year after macroeconomic risks are cleared.</p><p>No matter which situation happens, our advice to investors is to make a good layout in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock market rebound logic in the third quarter and main industries</b></p><p>We believe that there are the following four logics for the rebound of Hong Kong stocks. The first two are the main logics and the latter two are the supplementary logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>。 Like U.S. stocks, the previous decline was relatively large, but if the downward revision of performance expectations is not as good as the decline, there is room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Risk preference switching logic</b>。 We found that at the high level of the market, companies with high growth rates have greater valuation advantages; At the low level of the market, the valuation premium of high-growth companies decreases. Therefore, from an overall perspective, when the market rebounds from low to high, high-growth companies will benefit from the valuation increase brought about by the switch of market risk appetite. We call this a \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>3.<b>Share repurchase logic</b>。 As mentioned in the \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Repurchase Data Bottom-Hunting Strategy-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022) we released earlier, we believe that listed companies have sent signals at the macro level: They believe that their stock price is undervalued at 23,000 points on the Hang Seng Index. Despite the later military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and two black swan incidents in Shanghai and COVID-19 pandemic, we believe that the long-term value of most domestic companies will not change significantly. We can look for companies with large repurchase volume in this round of decline to invest in, because their prospects are more endorsed by the company's management. At the micro level, this is a secondary logic, and it is recommended to be used in conjunction with the above two main logics.</p><p>4.<b>AH share premium logic</b>。 At present, the Shanghai-Hong Kong AH premium index has been at the top position since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect, and has a certain correction potential. We believe that stocks with AH dual listings and historically high premiums are also worthy of investors' consideration. This is a secondary logic.</p><p>To sum up the above four rebound logics, our key recommendations are as follows:</p><p>1. Top recommendation<b>Healthcare</b>All sub-sections except chemicals are listed below. Especially recommended<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>。 They have both valuation repair space and high growth expectations, while benefiting from the first two rebound logics.</p><p>2. Second recommendation<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. This sector has both valuation repair space and risk appetite switching logic, but we must be alert to the risk of some individual stocks' performance in 2022-2023 being high before and then low.</p><p>3. Additionally recommended<b>New energy vehicles and advertising in the media</b>Plate. They have high growth expectations, belong to emerging industries, and may benefit from the switch of risk appetite.</p><p>4. Finally, we recommend<b>Internet companies</b>, they are the core stocks that have attracted much attention in Hong Kong stocks, and are likely to become the standard bearer of the rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>5. The stocks we recommend cover most of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Technology Index. Therefore, we recommend at the index level<b>Hang Seng Technology</b>。</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>Similar to the valuation repair logic we use in U.S. stocks, if the reduction in performance expectations of a stock/industry is less than the decline in stock prices, then there is room for valuation repair in the rebound.</p><p>We uniformly adopted a +31% treatment for the rise and fall of stock prices (31% is the average decline of sample stocks in the second half of 2021 to date) to distinguish companies that have fallen larger than and smaller than the prevailing situation. When calculating the valuation repair space, for companies with stable profits, we take the change of profit expectations as the standard, and for companies that cannot make stable profits, we take the revenue expectations as the standard.</p><p>Based on the data, we make recommendations for the following industries in terms of valuation repair logic:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sections under. We highly recommend<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>, these companies generally experienced a sharp pullback/retracement in stock prices in the early stage, but their performance expectations have been raised. Furthermore,<b>Medical and Health Equipment and Services</b>The sector also has ample room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Two sub-plates under.<b>Semiconductor</b>There is great differentiation within the industry, and there is plenty of room for valuation repair of SMIC (981 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK).<b>Technology hardware</b>Mainly Xiaomi and Lenovo, the sample size is small, so it is not recommended for the sector.</p><p>3. The sample size of dealers under optional consumption and building products under industry is too small to be repeated; The median early decline of shipping under industry is low, and there is no room for operation under the rebound logic, so it is not recommended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da8772831406f08d537f0be3654a440\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41003be5c098c8c43962a38b9021624\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae84e4ee3eb70a4f151573ae0496af7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56bc30ba442fac3d8b344365b7ad722c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Risk preference switching logic</b></p><p>We compared the expected 2-year CAGR of revenue and the PS at that time at two time points (revenue and PS are mainly used to cover unprofitable companies). These two time points are the end of February 2021-the high level of the Hang Seng Index, and current.</p><p>We find that when the market is at a high point, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks is amplified; When the market goes down, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks will be reduced. We believe this is mainly due to the switch of market risk appetite. From the perspective of graphics, the stock expectation-valuation regression line at different points in time seems to have been rotated, so we call it the \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>Since February 2021, the \"risk appetite pointer\" has rotated clockwise with the downward trend of the market, and the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks has been weakened; On the contrary, when there is a rebound opportunity in the market, we believe that these high-growth stocks will also benefit from the counterclockwise rotation of the \"risk appetite pointer\" and the rise of risk appetite at the valuation level. Combined with the expectation of improving fundamentals in the third quarter, high-growth stocks are expected to usher in Davis' double-click.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b8beaee31c9d313677b2799c73ee5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From an industry perspective, the following industries currently have high growth expectations:</p><p>1.<b>Cars under optional consumption</b>。<b>Automotive segment</b>Mainly benefiting from some companies participating in the new energy vehicle market, the growth rate of traditional automobile manufacturing companies is relatively low. So we advise investors to lock in<b>New energy vehicle</b>, not all car companies.</p><p>2.<b>Semiconductor sector under information technology</b>。 Except for individual stocks, they generally have relatively optimistic revenue CAGR expectations. However, we recommend that investors pay attention to the risk of high and low performance when selecting semiconductor companies.</p><p>3.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors under, especially<b>Biological drugs</b>。 Except for the pharmaceutical sector, the healthcare sector showed a gratifying growth trend. The growth rate of the pharmaceutical sub-sector is low, mainly due to the drag down of traditional chemical pharmaceutical companies.</p><p>4.<b>Media segment under Communication Services</b>, especially the performance growth rate of advertising companies is expected to be relatively high.</p><p>5. Hotel catering under optional consumption and airline sub-sectors under industry both have high growth expectations, but they are both traditional industries that benefit from the logic of epidemic recovery. Although the growth rate is expected to be high, it may not benefit from the rise in risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196f861399211f74f7dadbd6d51b238c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Logic 3: Share repurchase logic</b></p><p>In our earlier special report \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Bottom-hunting Strategy for Repurchase Data-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we conducted a study on the relationship between the company's repurchase behavior and the broader market and individual stocks research. We believe that the company's early repurchase behavior is also a bonus, which can be understood as the company's \"bottom-hunting\" of its own stocks.</p><p>When the first two more important rebound logics are in place, the company's repurchase behavior provides us with further protection. But this is a secondary logic, and we recommend that investors only use it as a useful addition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c367411a0e2146523849f12059ec165b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: AH share premium logic</b></p><p>Hong Kong Stock Connect was opened in November 2014. We observed the premium of AH shares since 2015 and found that the premium of AH shares has reached a high level at present, breaking through the +1 standard deviation level for a considerable distance. For companies listed in AH and AH, we believe that the high premium of AH shares will also help the H shares of related companies to achieve a stock price rebound.</p><p>However, we generally believe that this logic is not enough to support the companies listed in AH and AH alone to create excess returns. We suggest that investors choose the best among the companies listed in AH and AH on the basis of combining the first two main rebound logics. Relevant overlapping targets include biopharmaceuticals, CXO companies, some new energy vehicle industry chain companies, and a small number of semiconductor companies</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd85f18d2127e76f6975518f8fcc0ccc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-29 17:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The third quarter may be an important investment time window for US stocks and Hong Kong stocks in 2022</b></p><p>In terms of U.S. stocks, the Federal Reserve is still in a rate hike channel, and there are expectations of stagflation at the macro level, but we believe that U.S. stocks will rebound in the third quarter. This is mainly due to the information vacuum period in the third quarter: 1) At the macro level, it is difficult for CPI to hit a new high year-on-year. It is only a matter of how much it will decline from July to August. GDP is a lagging indicator of the market and has limited impact on future stock price trends; 2) At the micro level, there is no catalyst for downward revision of corporate performance during the mid-term report season; 3) At the monetary level, the September FOMC meeting is still some time away, and the Fed's attitude has turned marginally dovish. On the disk, after the negative factors were quickly cleared, U.S. stocks can still rise day by day, reflecting that U.S. stock investors have abundant bullish strength.</p><p>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell from July last year to March this year. The low-level volatility pattern has been maintained for a quarter, and the rebound potential is sufficient. Fundamentally, we believe that China's macro-economy has bottomed out in the second quarter, and the downward revision trend of individual stock performance is expected to end in the mid-term report season. There may be two situations in the second half of this year: 1) If there is a rebound in the third quarter, we recommend that investors be cautious in the fourth quarter; 2) It fluctuated at low levels in the third quarter and rebounded in the fourth quarter. In either case, we recommend that investors lay out in the third quarter and prepare for a rebound.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p>We provide investors with 4 rebound logics: 1) The profit forecast has not been lowered, but the valuation repair logic brought about by the oversold stock price; 2) Find a business model that resists stagflation; 3) Use high growth momentum to break through economic recession; 4) The mandatory demand for institutional investors to cover positions brought about by early oversold. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Company: Plenty of room for valuation repair; The business model is rigid at the beginning of the economic recession; It belongs to an emerging industry with a high growth rate; The previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. In line with 4/4 rebound logic, it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicle</b>Manufacturer: Plenty of room for valuation repair; Located on the sweet spot of the permeability curve, the growth rate is expected to be high; The optional consumer sector to which it belongs has experienced a large decline in the early stage, and investors have the need to cover their positions. In line with 3/4 rebound logic, the second push.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor</b>Industry: There is room for valuation repair; Good cost transmission ability and anti-inflation; High growth rate; Oversold in the early stage. It conforms to the 4/4 rebound logic, but there is a risk that the performance will be high before and then low. Recommended.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p>We provide investors with 2 main rebound logics: 1) The valuation repair logic brought about by a small/no reduction in profit forecast, but a large decline; 2) Risk appetite rises, and growth stocks benefit from the logic. And 2 secondary logics: 1) Treat the company's early repurchase behavior as management's endorsement of fundamentals; 2) Look for arbitrage space in companies with high premiums for AH shares. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors, especially<b>CXO</b>And<b>Biological drugs</b>。 They have sufficient room for valuation repair and are expected to grow at a high rate, which is expected to benefit from rising risk appetite. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, and it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. They also have better valuation repair space and higher performance growth expectations, but they must be alert to the risk of high performance before and then low performance. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, but there is 1 risk, which is the second push.</p><p>3. Also recommended<b>Internet companies</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Technology Index</b>。</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p><b>Overall outlook for U.S. stocks' trading logic in the third quarter</b></p><p>We believe that the third quarter will be an important time window for investing in US stocks this year. In the third quarter, we saw three periods of information vacuum:</p><p>1. Vacuum period of macro data. Judging from high-frequency data such as commodities, it is difficult for the CPI from July to August to exceed the 9.1% year-on-year increase in June, which is nothing more than the difference in the size of the decline. In terms of GDP, the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was-0.9% month-on-month, but the overall GDP is an indicator that lags behind the broader market, and the expected pattern of macro recession has been finalized (the inversion of US Treasury yields in 10-2 years has stabilized) does not generally constitute the impact of the market trend.</p><p>2. The vacuum period of corporate profit performance. Since the arrival of the interim report season, the semi-annual performance of U.S. stock companies has generally been in line with expectations. Although economic recession expectations are gradually taking shape at the macro level, there is still a lack of catalyst for the downward revision of corporate performance at the micro level, and we need to further wait for the performance of companies in the third quarter.</p><p>3. The vacuum period of monetary policy. Rate hike's 75bp boots landed in July, and the market expects the pace of rate hike to slow down in September. Consistent with market expectations, Fed officials' speeches and FOMC statements turned significantly marginally dove. This tendency has a small probability of reversal in the short term. At the same time, there are still 2 months before the next boots land.</p><p>From the disk point of view, we realize that the bullish power in the US market is still sufficient-the negative factors are quickly cleared in the market, and then the stock market can return to the upward trend day by day. Therefore, we believe that the third quarter of this year is an important time window for U.S. stock investment, and investors are expected to benefit from the rebound.</p><p><b>The investment logic of the US stock rebound and the first industry</b></p><p>In this rebound strategy, we use four sets of logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>: If the company's profit forecast has been raised (or not lowered), but the stock price has fallen, it will enjoy the opportunity of priority valuation repair in the rebound market;</p><p>2.<b>Stagflation-resistant business model</b>: In the case of stagflation expectations at the macro level, companies whose business models can naturally withstand economic recession or high inflation will be favored by investors in the rebound market;</p><p>3.<b>Growth stock logic</b>: Take offense as defense, and break through the limitations of the economic recession environment with higher growth momentum;</p><p>4.<b>Oversold logic</b>: It fell much in the early stage, and it may rise much in the later stage. For institutional investors, the sectors with larger declines may have exceeded the preset lower limit of allocation ratio, and they will have to cover their positions in these oversold sectors.</p><p>We make a summary of the recommended industries:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Inc. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the prepaid income is accrued according to time, and the business model has strong short-term anti-recession ability; Logic 3, emerging industries with high growth potential; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. SaaS companies in the software industry are the intersection of four rebound logics, and are the first to be recommended.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicles in automobiles</b>。 In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; In line with logic three, it is located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, the growth rate is expected to be high, and it is expected to cross the cycle; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and there was a need to cover positions. Four logics account for three, recommended.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor Industry</b>It is also one of our key recommendations. The main opportunities lie in the new energy fields and cloud computing fields, giving priority to public products. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the competitive landscape is stable, with strong bargaining power and cost transmission ability; In line with logic three, the growth rate is expected to be high; In line with logic 4, there is a need to cover positions. The risk lies in the large sales volume of servers and computers in the early stage, and there is a risk of overdraft demand. We must be wary of high performance before and low performance. Semiconductors account for all four rebound logics, but there is one risk, which is recommended.</p><p>4. In addition, we recommend that investors consider the hotel and entertainment sectors driven by the recovery of the epidemic, and the pharmaceutical CXO sector with large room for valuation recovery.</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>The first logic to look for a rebound is valuation repair. Specific to the execution level, we believe that the performance expectation has not been revised downward, but stocks whose stock prices have fallen will have room for valuation repair during the rebound, showing stronger flexibility. For performance expectations, we use the adjustment range of Bloomberg's consensus expected profit of listed companies in 2023 (if the company is not profitable, we use the revenue adjustment range instead); Stock Price Performance, we use the company's stock price movement year-to-date.</p><p>We did a simple +13% treatment for the stock price decline (13% is the average decline of our sample stocks) to offset the stock price pressure that liquidity tightening brings to be fair for all stocks. For the processed rise and fall, we call it \"relative rise and fall\". If the performance adjustment range of a company minus the relative increase or decrease of the stock price is greater than 0%, it means that the stock has room for valuation repair. That is, the following formula:</p><p>Valuation repair space = performance adjustment range-relative increase and decrease</p><p>One point to add is that in addition to the quantitative limitation of valuation repair space, valuation repair also has a qualitative requirement-it must fall in the early stage, not rise. A typical case that is not suitable for valuation repair logic is the energy sector. Since the beginning of the year, the performance increase of the energy sector has been greater than the increase in stock prices. However, the stock price is generally rising, not falling, so there is no way to talk about a \"rebound\".</p><p>From the data point of view, the sectors with large room for valuation repair are:</p><p>1.<b>Non-daily consumer goods (optional consumption)-automobile segment</b>There is a lot of room for valuation repair. But looking at it, the valuation restoration space of this sector is basically concentrated on new energy vehicle manufacturers represented by Tesla (TSLA US).</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology-Semiconductor Segment</b>, the performance in the first half of this year was generally raised, but the stock price fell. Subdivided companies with large room for valuation repair include automotive semiconductor manufacturers (such as ON Semiconductor ON US) and GPU manufacturers with cloud concepts (such as NVDA US and AMD US).</p><p>3.<b>IT-Software Industry</b>The differentiation of valuation repair space is relatively serious, but there are some stocks with advanced valuation repair space, generally SaaS companies.</p><p>4.<b>Healthcare-Life Sciences Tools & Services (CXO)</b>Generally, there is a certain room for valuation repair. Includes some companies whose performance has been revised upward, but whose stock prices have fallen sharply.</p><p>5.<b>Information Technology-Communication equipment</b>The change in performance expectations is relatively stable, but the decline is relatively large. It is expected to attract the attention of defensive-style investors in the next rally.</p><p>Those industries that have a lot of room for valuation repair, but we do not highly recommend:</p><p>1.<b>Finance-Commercial Banking</b>There is also a relatively large room for valuation repair, mainly due to the relatively large increase in bank performance in the early stage, which has a certain allocation value. However, banks have a large market value and are not our first choice when pursuing a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>energy</b>The valuation repair space readings are high. However, in the first half of the year, energy was on the rise, and there was no way to talk about a \"rebound\", so we do not recommend it.</p><p>3.<b>Industrial-Building Products</b>There is relatively large room for valuation repair, but their performance expectations generally show a slight downward trend, and there may be a lack of catalysts for rebound.</p><p>4.<b>Raw materials</b>The industry is facing pressure from high-frequency commodity price data peaking and falling back. At the same time, due to high operating leverage, slight changes in revenue may cause drastic fluctuations in profits. We recommend careful consideration.</p><p>5. We will not go into details about industries with too small sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcf7716e176d14fb293c49d27e6d3cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ec42def97349edfa95c07fdf1879cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c824c1fc42398bc9fc05b99707ff3b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bf5f271d8a8fa1ac2d7d52b0152d62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Anti-stagflation business model</b></p><p>The two key words of stagflation, one is \"stagflation\"-representing economic recession; One is \"inflation\"-representing rising costs. So, we need to find a business model that can fight the recession or transmit costs. We will give examples of several industries.</p><p><b>Software Industry SaaS Company</b></p><p>SaaS companies in the software industry are one of our most optimistic segments. Their revenue side adopts the customer prepaid subscription model, charging customers a fee in advance, determining the length of service time, and then recognizing this fee as revenue monthly/quarterly. On the cost side, the main cost of SaaS companies is marketing expenditure, and marketing expenditure is also paid to sales staff first, and then gradually confirmed with revenue. Therefore, SaaS companies will show strong performance rigidity and reflect their advantages in the early stages of the economic recession. Examples of such SaaS companies include cloud platform security system provider Datadog (DDOG US), cloud data platform company Zscaler (ZS US), and identification system company OKTA (OKTA US).</p><p>At the same time, we should be cautious about other models of software companies. Their revenue comes from IT expenditure in enterprise capital expenditure-an expenditure that is highly sensitive to the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Internet intermediary platform</b></p><p>In terms of fighting inflation, we believe that some Internet intermediary platforms will perform very well. Their revenue is usually based on GMV-the volume of transactions on the platform, multiplied by a fixed rate (take rate). With high inflation, their GMV will rise with rapidly increasing prices. An example of this is Airbnb (ABNB US), which provides travelers with accommodation intermediary services and charges based on GBV (a variation of GMV). Since the year-on-year growth rate of hotel projects in the CPI has been at a high level of about 20% recently, Airbnb's GBV, and then revenue, will also be driven upward by the higher growth rate of wine and travel prices. Some companies under the Internet Marketing and Direct Retail segment also fall into this category, such as Amazon (AMZN US) and eBay (EBAY US).</p><p><b>Semiconductor Manufacturing</b></p><p>In addition, we are optimistic about some manufacturing companies with strong bargaining power, such as the semiconductor manufacturing industry-they have high technical barriers and a relatively stable market structure. For leaders, there is some room to increase prices according to demand. This helps them transmit the pressure on the cost side downstream. In these companies, the price of consumer products, such as CPUs used in PCs, will be relatively inelastic. Companies with a higher proportion of corporate business will have a greater advantage, because corporate products are more price elastic than consumer products. More typical examples are automotive semiconductor manufacturers, such as ON US.</p><p><b>Logic 3: Growth stock logic</b></p><p>As we mentioned in our interim strategy report, growth is precious in times of economic downturn. We believe growth is the best defense. Therefore, we also recommend that investors give priority to industries and targets with higher expected growth rates. If these targets also have the previous two logics, it is the best choice.</p><p>At present, several industries with relatively high expected growth rates are as follows:</p><p>1.<b>Optional consumption</b>, the main growth point is<b>automobile</b>And<b>Hotel catering</b>INDUSTRY. Wherein,<b>automobile</b>There is a big differentiation within the sector. New energy car companies Tesla (TSLA US) and Lucid (LCID US) have higher growth expectations, while the growth expectations of traditional car companies are relatively mediocre.<b>Hotel catering</b>It mainly benefits from the fact that the hotel industry is recovering from the epidemic, with two driving factors: low base and concentrated demand outbreak, and the growth rate of catering (especially fast food) is relatively mediocre.</p><p>2.<b>Communication Services</b>In the plate,<b>recreation</b>The growth rate of the industry is relatively strong. The main high-growth companies are Walt Disney (DIS US) involved in travel concepts, concert hosting company Live Nation (LYV US) and game company Electronic Arts (EA US). The first two mainly benefit from the recovery of social activities, while the latter has a relatively stable and rapid growth in in-game value-added service revenue.</p><p>3.<b>Information Technology</b>Under-plate<b>Semiconductor</b>And<b>Software industry</b>。 Wherein,<b>Semiconductor</b>There are many high-growth companies in the industry. But we must be wary of companies with high growth expectations in 2022 and low growth expectations in 2023. Because the sales of computers and servers are relatively high in the near future, we should be wary of the risk of overdraft of early demand and the performance of related companies in 2022 will be high before and then low. We focus on selecting companies that analysts believe can still increase their performance in 2023, such as MRVL US, Enphase Energy (ENPH US), SolarEdge Technology (SEDG US), and Nvidia (NVDA US).<b>Software industry</b>, we believe that it should be further distinguished into traditional software companies and SaaS companies. The expected growth rate of SaaS companies is second only to the new energy vehicle sector, such as Datadog (DDOG US) and Zscaler (ZS US), which are our highly recommended industries.</p><p>4. For industries with high CAGR but too uneven growth rates or too small sample sizes in 2022 and 2023, we do not recommend sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e221f9b70bf80ea6a2d3d13e63ec9436\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea2617cdcee9c2759498d8c8d540948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f8b0b4d4d07b5ee9bdd21a35855718\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a6e719cf587946d7cf63bb33bae409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: Oversold logic</b></p><p>Since institutional investors usually have pre-determined position structure requirements (for example, the proportion of a certain sector's shareholding in the investment portfolio must be within a certain range), in the case of uneven rises and falls of various sectors in the market, the previous increase The sector with a larger increase will face a greater selling pressure, and the sector with a larger decline will benefit from investors' demand for covering positions.</p><p>We use the GICS plate as a reference standard. It is not difficult to see that the performance of the U.S. stock energy sector in the first half of 2022 is unique. This means that the proportion of stocks in the energy sector in the positions of institutional investors may have exceeded the predetermined upper limit of the position ratio. In this case, investors will have to reduce their holdings of shares in the energy sector. On the contrary,<b>Communication Services</b>、<b>Optional consumption</b>And<b>Information Technology</b>Sectors have experienced large year-to-date declines, so they are more likely to have broken through the lower limit of investors' positions in these sectors, in which case investors will have to increase their allocation to these sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e5300923df0191ae42145fa455991\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: Be wary of high-frequency production/sales data</b></p><p>One point that needs to be emphasized is that we believe that the performance expectations of US stock companies are not without room for downward adjustment, but there is a short-term lack of catalysts. Therefore, when we use the information vacuum to trade, we must be alert to the emergence of high-frequency data, such as retail data-they cover food and beverage, automobiles, drugs, clothing, energy and other segments. Therefore, if we seize short-term opportunities in the US market with stagflation expectations, these areas need to be extra cautious. In terms of price data, we don't think there is need to worry too much, because as far as we have observed so far, the market is generally price-neutral in fundamental trading.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p><b>Brief introduction of short-term market conditions of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Since the high point in February 2021, the Hang Seng Index first experienced a plateau period from March to June, remaining volatile at 29,000 points. The decline began in July 2021 and bottomed out in March 2022. The Hang Seng Index is currently fluctuating at a low level of 20,000-23,000 points. From a macro perspective, China's economy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the macro aspect is expected to achieve a V-shaped reversal in the third quarter. From a micro perspective, the downward revision trend of company performance in the Hong Kong stock market has continued for a whole year from July 2021 to the present. With the advent of the performance period in the second quarter, we believe that the downward revision of performance is expected to be generally completed before the silent period, and the market's expectation of the company is expected to stabilize with the end of the performance period. For now, we believe that Hong Kong stocks have accumulated strong rebound potential. There are two possibilities in the second half of the year:</p><p>1. Hong Kong stocks rebounded in the third quarter. Then our suggestion is that investors can consider completing the layout and taking profits in the third quarter, and wait and see cautiously in the fourth quarter.</p><p>2. Hong Kong stocks maintained a low and volatile trend in the third quarter. Then we believe that Hong Kong stocks will achieve a U-shaped reversal in the fourth quarter of this year after macroeconomic risks are cleared.</p><p>No matter which situation happens, our advice to investors is to make a good layout in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock market rebound logic in the third quarter and main industries</b></p><p>We believe that there are the following four logics for the rebound of Hong Kong stocks. The first two are the main logics and the latter two are the supplementary logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>。 Like U.S. stocks, the previous decline was relatively large, but if the downward revision of performance expectations is not as good as the decline, there is room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Risk preference switching logic</b>。 We found that at the high level of the market, companies with high growth rates have greater valuation advantages; At the low level of the market, the valuation premium of high-growth companies decreases. Therefore, from an overall perspective, when the market rebounds from low to high, high-growth companies will benefit from the valuation increase brought about by the switch of market risk appetite. We call this a \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>3.<b>Share repurchase logic</b>。 As mentioned in the \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Repurchase Data Bottom-Hunting Strategy-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022) we released earlier, we believe that listed companies have sent signals at the macro level: They believe that their stock price is undervalued at 23,000 points on the Hang Seng Index. Despite the later military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and two black swan incidents in Shanghai and COVID-19 pandemic, we believe that the long-term value of most domestic companies will not change significantly. We can look for companies with large repurchase volume in this round of decline to invest in, because their prospects are more endorsed by the company's management. At the micro level, this is a secondary logic, and it is recommended to be used in conjunction with the above two main logics.</p><p>4.<b>AH share premium logic</b>。 At present, the Shanghai-Hong Kong AH premium index has been at the top position since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect, and has a certain correction potential. We believe that stocks with AH dual listings and historically high premiums are also worthy of investors' consideration. This is a secondary logic.</p><p>To sum up the above four rebound logics, our key recommendations are as follows:</p><p>1. Top recommendation<b>Healthcare</b>All sub-sections except chemicals are listed below. Especially recommended<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>。 They have both valuation repair space and high growth expectations, while benefiting from the first two rebound logics.</p><p>2. Second recommendation<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. This sector has both valuation repair space and risk appetite switching logic, but we must be alert to the risk of some individual stocks' performance in 2022-2023 being high before and then low.</p><p>3. Additionally recommended<b>New energy vehicles and advertising in the media</b>Plate. They have high growth expectations, belong to emerging industries, and may benefit from the switch of risk appetite.</p><p>4. Finally, we recommend<b>Internet companies</b>, they are the core stocks that have attracted much attention in Hong Kong stocks, and are likely to become the standard bearer of the rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>5. The stocks we recommend cover most of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Technology Index. Therefore, we recommend at the index level<b>Hang Seng Technology</b>。</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>Similar to the valuation repair logic we use in U.S. stocks, if the reduction in performance expectations of a stock/industry is less than the decline in stock prices, then there is room for valuation repair in the rebound.</p><p>We uniformly adopted a +31% treatment for the rise and fall of stock prices (31% is the average decline of sample stocks in the second half of 2021 to date) to distinguish companies that have fallen larger than and smaller than the prevailing situation. When calculating the valuation repair space, for companies with stable profits, we take the change of profit expectations as the standard, and for companies that cannot make stable profits, we take the revenue expectations as the standard.</p><p>Based on the data, we make recommendations for the following industries in terms of valuation repair logic:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sections under. We highly recommend<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>, these companies generally experienced a sharp pullback/retracement in stock prices in the early stage, but their performance expectations have been raised. Furthermore,<b>Medical and Health Equipment and Services</b>The sector also has ample room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Two sub-plates under.<b>Semiconductor</b>There is great differentiation within the industry, and there is plenty of room for valuation repair of SMIC (981 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK).<b>Technology hardware</b>Mainly Xiaomi and Lenovo, the sample size is small, so it is not recommended for the sector.</p><p>3. The sample size of dealers under optional consumption and building products under industry is too small to be repeated; The median early decline of shipping under industry is low, and there is no room for operation under the rebound logic, so it is not recommended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da8772831406f08d537f0be3654a440\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41003be5c098c8c43962a38b9021624\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae84e4ee3eb70a4f151573ae0496af7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56bc30ba442fac3d8b344365b7ad722c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Risk preference switching logic</b></p><p>We compared the expected 2-year CAGR of revenue and the PS at that time at two time points (revenue and PS are mainly used to cover unprofitable companies). These two time points are the end of February 2021-the high level of the Hang Seng Index, and current.</p><p>We find that when the market is at a high point, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks is amplified; When the market goes down, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks will be reduced. We believe this is mainly due to the switch of market risk appetite. From the perspective of graphics, the stock expectation-valuation regression line at different points in time seems to have been rotated, so we call it the \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>Since February 2021, the \"risk appetite pointer\" has rotated clockwise with the downward trend of the market, and the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks has been weakened; On the contrary, when there is a rebound opportunity in the market, we believe that these high-growth stocks will also benefit from the counterclockwise rotation of the \"risk appetite pointer\" and the rise of risk appetite at the valuation level. Combined with the expectation of improving fundamentals in the third quarter, high-growth stocks are expected to usher in Davis' double-click.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b8beaee31c9d313677b2799c73ee5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From an industry perspective, the following industries currently have high growth expectations:</p><p>1.<b>Cars under optional consumption</b>。<b>Automotive segment</b>Mainly benefiting from some companies participating in the new energy vehicle market, the growth rate of traditional automobile manufacturing companies is relatively low. So we advise investors to lock in<b>New energy vehicle</b>, not all car companies.</p><p>2.<b>Semiconductor sector under information technology</b>。 Except for individual stocks, they generally have relatively optimistic revenue CAGR expectations. However, we recommend that investors pay attention to the risk of high and low performance when selecting semiconductor companies.</p><p>3.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors under, especially<b>Biological drugs</b>。 Except for the pharmaceutical sector, the healthcare sector showed a gratifying growth trend. The growth rate of the pharmaceutical sub-sector is low, mainly due to the drag down of traditional chemical pharmaceutical companies.</p><p>4.<b>Media segment under Communication Services</b>, especially the performance growth rate of advertising companies is expected to be relatively high.</p><p>5. Hotel catering under optional consumption and airline sub-sectors under industry both have high growth expectations, but they are both traditional industries that benefit from the logic of epidemic recovery. Although the growth rate is expected to be high, it may not benefit from the rise in risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196f861399211f74f7dadbd6d51b238c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Logic 3: Share repurchase logic</b></p><p>In our earlier special report \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Bottom-hunting Strategy for Repurchase Data-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we conducted a study on the relationship between the company's repurchase behavior and the broader market and individual stocks research. We believe that the company's early repurchase behavior is also a bonus, which can be understood as the company's \"bottom-hunting\" of its own stocks.</p><p>When the first two more important rebound logics are in place, the company's repurchase behavior provides us with further protection. But this is a secondary logic, and we recommend that investors only use it as a useful addition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c367411a0e2146523849f12059ec165b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: AH share premium logic</b></p><p>Hong Kong Stock Connect was opened in November 2014. We observed the premium of AH shares since 2015 and found that the premium of AH shares has reached a high level at present, breaking through the +1 standard deviation level for a considerable distance. For companies listed in AH and AH, we believe that the high premium of AH shares will also help the H shares of related companies to achieve a stock price rebound.</p><p>However, we generally believe that this logic is not enough to support the companies listed in AH and AH alone to create excess returns. We suggest that investors choose the best among the companies listed in AH and AH on the basis of combining the first two main rebound logics. Relevant overlapping targets include biopharmaceuticals, CXO companies, some new energy vehicle industry chain companies, and a small number of semiconductor companies</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd85f18d2127e76f6975518f8fcc0ccc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/otESAs4BWujFnEZ2Xpx2AA\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/otESAs4BWujFnEZ2Xpx2AA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182404599","content_text":"第三季度或是美股和港股2022年重要的投资时间窗口美股方面，联储尚处于加息通道，且宏观层面有滞胀预期，但我们认为美股在第三季度会有一轮反弹。这主要得益于三季度的信息真空期：1）宏观层面，CPI同比难创新高，7-8月只是下降多少的问题，GDP是大盘滞后指标，对未来股价走势影响有限；2）微观层面，中报季没有企业业绩下修的催化剂；3）货币层面，9月FOMC会议尚有时日，且联储态度边际转鸽。盘面上，利空因素快速出清后，美股仍能逐日上行，反映出美股投资者多头力量充裕。港股方面，恒指去年7月下跌至今年3月，低位震荡格局已维持一个季度，反弹势能充足。基本面上，我们认为中国宏观经济已在二季度见底，个股业绩下修趋势有望在中报季结束。今年下半年或出现两种情况：1）三季度反弹，则我们建议投资者四季度谨慎；2）三季度低位震荡，四季度反弹。无论是哪种情况，我们都建议投资者在三季度布局，准备迎接反弹。美股：在估值修复空间与商业模式中择优我们为投资者提供4条反弹逻辑：1）盈利预测未下调，但股价超跌带来的估值修复逻辑；2）寻找抗滞胀的商业模式；3）利用高增长动能突破经济衰退；4）前期超跌带来的机构投资者强制补仓需求。我们推荐的行业有：1.首推软件业SaaS公司：估值修复空间充裕；商业模式在经济衰退初期刚性较强；属于增速较高的新兴行业；前期跌幅较大，投资者有补仓需求。符合4/4条反弹逻辑，首推。2.次推新能源车制造商：估值修复空间充裕；位于渗透率曲线甜点上，增速预期高；所属的可选消费板块前期跌幅较大，投资者有补仓需求。符合3/4条反弹逻辑，次推。3.半导体行业：有估值修复空间；成本传导能力好，抗通胀；增速高；前期超跌。符合4/4条反弹逻辑，但有业绩前高后低的风险，推荐。港股：最大化利用估值修复与风险偏好上行我们为投资者提供2条主要反弹逻辑：1）盈利预测下调幅度小/未下调，但跌幅较大带来的估值修复逻辑；2）风险偏好上升，成长股受益逻辑。以及2条次要逻辑：1）将公司前期回购行为视为管理层对基本面的背书；2）在AH股高溢价的公司中寻找套利空间。我们推荐的行业有：1.医疗保健下多个子板块，尤其是CXO和生物药。它们有充足的估值修复空间且预期增速较高，有望受益于风险偏好抬升。符合2/2条主要逻辑，首推。2.信息技术下的半导体板块。它们也有较优的估值修复空间和较高的业绩增速预期，但须警惕业绩前高后低的风险。符合2/2条主要逻辑，但有1项风险，次推。3.另推荐互联网公司以及恒生科技指数。风险提示：疫情发展的不确定性；企业业绩不及预期的风险；国际政治经济突发事件；美联储预期外的货币政策风格。美股：在估值修复空间与商业模式中择优美股第三季度交易逻辑整体展望我们认为三季度将会是今年投资美股的重要时间窗口。在第三季度，我们看到了三个信息真空期：1.宏观数据的真空期。从大宗商品等高频数据来判断，7-8月CPI难以超越6月份同比增9.1%的水平，无非是降幅大小的区别。GDP方面，二季度美国GDP环比折年-0.9%，但GDP总体是个滞后于大盘的指标，且宏观面衰退预期格局已定型（10年-2年美债利率倒挂已经稳定）总体不构成大盘走势影响。2.企业盈利表现的真空期。中报季来临至今，美股企业的半年度业绩总体符合预期。尽管经济衰退预期逐渐在宏观层面形成，微观层面上企业业绩下修尚缺乏催化剂，需进一步等待企业第三季度的表现。3.货币政策的真空期。7月加息75bp靴子落地，市场期望9月加息节奏放缓。与市场期望一致，美联储官员讲话和FOMC声明显著边际转鸽。这个倾向短期内看反转概率较小。同时距离下次靴子落地还有2个月的时间。从盘面来看，我们认识到美国市场多头力量仍然很足——利空因素在市场上快速出清，然后股市便可以回到逐日上行的状态。所以，我们认为今年第三季度是美股投资重要的时间窗口，投资者有望从反弹中获取收益。美股反弹的投资逻辑和首推行业在这个反弹策略中，我们运用到四套逻辑：1.估值修复逻辑：如果公司的盈利预测上调了（或者没下调），但是股价却下跌了，便在反弹行情中享受优先估值修复的机会；2.抗滞胀商业模式：在宏观层面有滞胀预期的情况下，商业模式能够天然抵御经济衰退或高通胀的公司将在反弹行情中受到投资者的青睐；3.成长股逻辑：以攻为守，以较高的增长动能突破经济衰退大环境的限制；4.超跌逻辑：前期跌得多，后期或将涨得多。对机构投资者来说，跌幅较大的板块可能已经突破预先设置的配置比例下限，他们将不得不对这些超跌板块补仓。我们对推荐的行业做一个汇总：1.首推软件业SaaS公司。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑二，预付费按时间计提收入，商业模式短期抗衰退能力强；符合逻辑三，成长潜力较高的新兴行业；符合逻辑四，前期跌幅大，投资者有补仓需求。软件业SaaS公司是四条反弹逻辑的交汇点，首推。2.其次推汽车中的新能源车。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑三，位于渗透率曲线甜点，增速预期高，有望穿越周期；符合逻辑四，前期跌幅较大，有补仓需求。四条逻辑占三条，推荐。3.半导体行业也是我们的重点推荐之一。主要的机会在于新能源领域和云计算领域，对公产品优先。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑二，竞争格局稳定，有较强的议价能力和成本传导能力；符合逻辑三，增速预期高；符合逻辑四，有补仓需求。风险在于前期服务器和电脑销售量大，有需求透支的风险，须警惕业绩前高后低。半导体占全部四条反弹逻辑，但有一项风险，推荐。4.此外，我们建议投资者考虑疫情恢复带动的酒店、娱乐板块，和估值修复空间大的医药CXO板块。逻辑一：估值修复逻辑寻找反弹的第一个逻辑是估值修复。具体到执行层面，我们认为，业绩预期没有下修，但是股价下跌的股票，在反弹中会有估值修复空间，表现出更强的弹性。业绩预期，我们采用上市企业2023年彭博一致预期利润的调整幅度（如果企业不盈利，我们改用营收调整幅度）；股价表现，我们使用年初至今的公司的股价变动。我们对股价跌幅做了简单的+13%的处理（13%是我们样本股票的平均跌幅），以冲抵流动性收紧带来的对所有股票公平的股价压力。对处理后的涨跌幅，我们称之为“相对涨跌幅”。如果一家公司的业绩调整幅度减去股价相对涨跌幅大于0%，说明这支股票有估值修复空间。即以下公式：估值修复空间 = 业绩调整幅度 - 相对涨跌幅要补充的一点是，除了估值修复空间这个量化限制外，估值修复还有一个定性要求——前期必须要下跌，而非上涨。典型不适合估值修复逻辑的案例是能源板块。年初至今，能源板块的业绩上调幅度大于股价涨幅。但是股价总体呈上涨，而非下跌，所以“反弹”无从谈起。从数据来看，估值修复空间较大的板块有：1.非日常生活消费品（可选消费）-汽车板块有较大的估值修复空间。但展开看，该板块的估值修复空间基本上都集中在以特斯拉（TSLA US）为代表的新能源车厂商身上。2.信息技术-半导体板块，今年上半年业绩总体上调，但股价下跌。估值修复空间较大的细分公司有汽车半导体厂商（如安森美ON US）和带有云端概念的GPU制造商（如英伟达NVDA US和超微半导体AMD US）。3.信息技术-软件业估值修复空间分化比较严重，但有一些估值修复空间较领先的个股，普遍是SaaS公司。4.医疗保健-生命科学工具与服务（CXO）普遍具有一定的估值修复空间。包含了一些业绩上修，但股价大幅下跌的公司。5.信息技术-通信设备的业绩预期变化比较平稳，但跌幅较大。有望在接下来的反弹引起防御风格投资者的注意。那些估值修复空间大，但我们不重点推荐的行业：1.金融-商业银行的估值修复空间也比较大，主要是由于前期银行业绩上调幅度比较大，有一定配置价值。但银行市值较大，追求反弹时，不是我们的首选。2.能源的估值修复空间读数较高。但上半年能源处于上涨态势，“反弹”无从谈起，我们不作推荐。3.工业-建筑产品的估值修复空间比较大，但它们的业绩预期普遍呈现小幅下行状态，可能会缺乏反弹的催化剂。4.原材料行业面临高频商品价格数据见顶回落压力。同时，由于经营杠杆较高，营收的细微变化可能引起利润的剧烈波动。我们建议谨慎考虑。5.样本量过小的行业我们不作赘述。逻辑二：抗滞胀的商业模式滞胀的两个关键词，一个是“滞”——代表经济衰退；一个是“胀”——代表成本上升。所以，我们需要找到能够对抗衰退，或能够传导成本的商业模式。我们将对几个行业做举例说明。软件业SaaS公司软件业中的SaaS公司是我们最为看好的细分板块之一。它们收入端采用客户预付费的订阅模式，预先向客户收取一笔费用，确定服务时间长度，然后逐月/逐季将这笔费用确认为收入。成本端，SaaS公司的主要成本是营销支出，而营销支出也是先支付给销售人员，然后随营收逐步确认的。所以，SaaS公司将在经济衰退初期展现出强大的业绩刚性，体现优势。这类SaaS公司的案例包括，云平台安全系统提供商Datadog（DDOG US），云数据平台公司Zscaler（ZS US），身份识别系统公司OKTA（OKTA US）。同时，我们要谨慎对待其他模式的软件公司。它们的收入来自企业资本开支中的IT支出——这是对经济周期高度敏感的一项开支。互联网中介平台在对抗通胀方面，我们认为一些互联网中介平台将会表现地十分出众。他们的收入通常是基于GMV——平台上的交易量，乘以一个固定的费率（take rate）。在通胀高企的情况下，他们的GMV会随着快速增加的物价上升。其中的一个例子是爱彼迎（ABNB US），它为旅行者提供住宿中介服务，基于GBV（GMV的一个变形）收费。由于CPI中的旅馆项目同比增速近期一直处于20%左右的高位，爱彼迎的GBV，继而营收也会被较高的酒旅价格增速驱动上行。网络营销与直销零售板块下的一些公司也属于这个范畴，如亚马逊（AMZN US）和eBay公司（EBAY US）。半导体制造业另外，我们看好一些议价能力强的制造业公司，如半导体制造业——它们的技术壁垒高，市场格局比较稳定，对于龙头来说，有一定根据需求加价的空间。这有助于它们把成本端的压力传导至下游。在这些公司中，消费级产品，如PC电脑使用的CPU的价格将比较缺乏弹性。对公业务占比较高的公司优势将会更大，因为对公产品比消费级产品的价格弹性更足，比较典型的便是汽车半导体制造商，如安森美（ON US）。逻辑三：成长股逻辑正如我们在中期策略报告中提到，经济不景气时，成长弥足珍贵。我们相信增长是最好的防御。所以，我们也建议投资者优先考虑预期增速较高的行业和标的。如果这些标的也带有前面的两条逻辑，那便是上上之选。目前来看，预期增速比较高的几个行业如下：1.可选消费，主要的增长点是汽车和酒店餐饮行业。其中，汽车板块内部有较大分化，新能源车企特斯拉（TSLA US）和Lucid（LCID US）有较高的增速预期，传统车企的增速预期比较平庸。酒店餐饮则主要受益于酒店行业正在从疫情中恢复，具有低基数和需求集中爆发两个驱动因素，餐饮（尤其快餐）的增速则比较平庸。2.通信服务板块中，娱乐行业增速比较强劲。主要高增速的公司是涉及旅游概念的华特迪士尼（DIS US）、音乐会承办公司Live Nation（LYV US）和游戏公司电子艺界（EA US）。前两者主要受益于社会活动的恢复，后者有较为稳定且快速的游戏内增值服务收入增长。3.信息技术板块下的半导体和软件业。其中，半导体行业下有许多高增速公司。但是我们要警惕那些2022年增速预期高，2023年预期低的公司。因为电脑和服务器在近期的销量较高，我们应警惕前期需求透支，相关公司2022年业绩前高后低的风险。我们重点选择分析师认为2023年业绩仍能高增的公司，如美满电子（MRVL US）、Enphase能源（ENPH US）、SolarEdge科技（SEDG US）、英伟达（NVDA US）。软件业，我们认为应进一步区分为传统软件公司和SaaS公司。SaaS公司预期增速仅次于新能源车板块，如Datadog（DDOG US）和Zscaler（ZS US），是我们重点推荐的行业。4.CAGR高但是2022和2023年增速过于不均衡或样本量太小的行业，我们不作板块推荐。逻辑四：超跌逻辑由于机构投资者通常都有事先确定好的持仓结构要求（如某一板块的持股占投资组合的比例必须处于某个区间内），在市场各板块涨跌幅不均的情况下，前期涨幅较大的板块将面临更大的抛压，跌幅较大的板块将受益于投资者的补仓需求。我们以GICS板块作为参考标准。不难看出，美股能源板块在2022年上半年的表现一枝独秀。这意味着，能源板块的股票在机构投资者持仓中的占比可能已经超过了事先给定的持仓比例上限。在这种情况下，投资者将不得不减持能源板块的股票。相反，通信服务、可选消费和信息技术板块年初至今的跌幅较大，所以它们更有可能已经向下突破了投资者在这些板块的持仓比例下限，在这种情况下，投资者将不得不增配这些板块。风险：警惕高频产量/销量数据需要强调的一点是，我们认为美股公司的业绩预期并非没有下调空间，只是短期缺乏催化剂。所以，当我们利用信息真空交易时，一定要警惕高频数据的出现，如零售数据——它们涵盖了食饮、汽车、药物、服饰、能源等细分。所以，如果我们怀着滞胀预期在美国市场抓短期机会，这些领域需要格外慎重。价格数据方面，我们认为无需过于担忧，因为就我们目前为止的观察，市场在基本面交易上总体呈价格中性。港股：最大化利用估值修复与风险偏好上行港股短期市场状态简述自2021年2月的高点以来，恒生指数首先经历了3-6月份的平台期，在29000点的位置维持震荡。2021年7月开始下跌，到2022年3月触底。恒生指数目前在20000-23000点低位震荡。从宏观角度看，中国经济在第二季度触底，第三季度宏观面将有望实现V型反转。从微观的角度看，港股市场公司业绩的下修趋势已经从2021年7月持续一整年至今。随着二季度业绩期的来临，我们认为业绩下修有望在静默期前大体完成，市场对公司的预期有望随着业绩期的结束企稳。就目前来看，我们认为港股已经积累了较强的反弹势能。下半年将面临两种可能性：1.港股在三季度有所反弹。那么我们的建议则是投资者可以考虑在三季度完成布局和止盈的动作，在第四季度谨慎观望。2.港股在三季度维持低位震荡走势。那么我们认为港股将在宏观经济风险出清后，在今年四季度实现U型反转。无论哪一种情况发生，我们对投资者的建议均是在三季度做好布局。港股三季度反弹逻辑与主推行业我们认为港股的反弹逻辑有以下四个，前两个是主要逻辑，后两个是补充逻辑：1.估值修复逻辑。与美股相同，前期跌幅比较大，但是业绩预期下修幅度不及跌幅的，便存在估值修复的空间。2.风险偏好切换逻辑。我们发现，在大盘的高位，高增速的公司具有更大的估值优势；在大盘低位，高增速公司的估值溢价则减少。因此，从全局的角度看，在市场从低位向高位反弹时，高增速公司将会受益于市场风险偏好切换带来的估值提升。我们将此称为“风险偏好指针”。3.股份回购逻辑。正如我们早前发布的《港股股份回购专题研究-回购数据抄底策略——利用集体的智慧》（2022年4月27日）提到，我们认为上市企业在宏观层面已经发出了信号：它们认为自身股价在恒生指数23000点的位置已经被低估。尽管后期又发生了俄乌军事冲突和上海新冠疫情两起黑天鹅事件，但我们相信大多数国内企业的长期价值不会有较大幅度的改变。我们可以去寻找在本轮下跌中回购量较大的公司进行投资，因为它们的前景更多地受到了公司管理层的背书。在微观层面，这是一条次要逻辑，建议与上面两条主要逻辑结合使用。4.AH股溢价逻辑。目前，沪港AH溢价指数已经处于港股通开通以来的顶部位置，有一定的回调势能。我们认为AH两地上市，同时溢价处于历史高位的股票也值得投资者考虑。这是一条次要逻辑。综上四条反弹逻辑，我们的重点推荐如下：1.首要推荐医疗保健下除化学药以外的各个子板块。尤其重点推荐CXO和生物药板块。它们兼具估值修复空间和高增长预期，同时受益于前两条反弹逻辑。2.其次推荐信息技术下的半导体板块。这个板块兼具估值修复空间与风险偏好切换逻辑，唯独要警惕部分个股在2022-2023年业绩前高后低的风险。3.此外推荐新能源车和媒体中的广告板块。它们具备较高的增速预期，属于新兴行业，或将受益于风险偏好切换。4.最后，我们推荐互联网公司，它们是港股中备受关注的核心个股，很可能成为港股反弹的旗手。5.我们推荐的个股涵盖了恒生科技指数的大部分成分股。因此，我们在指数层面推荐恒生科技。逻辑一：估值修复逻辑与我们在美股使用的估值修复逻辑相似，如果一支股票/一个行业的业绩预期下调幅度小于股价下跌幅度，那么在反弹中便存在估值修复的空间。我们对股价的涨跌幅统一采用了+31%（31%是2021年下半年至今样本股票的平均跌幅）的处理，以区分跌幅大于和小于普遍情况的公司。计算估值修复空间时，对于有稳定盈利的公司，我们以利润预期变动为准，对于不能稳定盈利的公司，我们以营收预期为准。根据数据，我们就估值修复逻辑对以下行业做出推荐：1.医疗保健下的多个子板块。我们重点推荐CXO和生物药板块，这些公司在前期普遍经历了股价的大幅回撤，但是业绩预期方面却有所上调。此外，医药保健设备与服务板块也有充裕的估值修复空间。2.信息技术下的两个子板块。半导体行业内分化较大，中芯国际（981 HK）与华虹半导体（1347 HK）的估值修复空间比较充裕。科技硬件主要是小米和联想，样本量小，不作板块推荐。3.可选消费下的经销商、工业下的建筑产品样本量太小，不作赘述；工业下的海运前期跌幅中位数偏低，反弹逻辑下没有操作空间，不作推荐。逻辑二：风险偏好切换逻辑我们对比了两个时间点的预期营收2年CAGR和当时的PS（使用营收和PS主要是为了涵盖未盈利的公司），这两个时间点分别为2021年2月末——恒生指数的高位，和当前。我们发现，当市场位于高点时，高增长股票的估值优势会被放大；而当市场下行时，高增长股票的估值优势会被缩小。我们认为这主要是市场风险偏好切换所致。从图像的角度来看，不同时间点的股票预期-估值回归线看起来经过了旋转，故我们称之为“风险偏好指针”。2021年2月至今，“风险偏好指针”随着大盘的下行顺时针旋转，高增长个股的估值优势被削弱；反之，当大盘出现反弹机会时，我们认为这些高增长个股也将受益于“风险偏好指针”的逆时针旋转，在估值层面受益于风险偏好的上升。结合三季度基本面改善的预期，高增长个股则有望迎来戴维斯双击。从行业的角度来看，以下行业目前具有较高的增速预期：1.可选消费下的汽车。汽车板块主要受益于部分参与了新能源车市场的企业，传统汽车制造企业的增速则比较低。所以我们建议投资者锁定新能源车，而非所有车企。2.信息技术下的半导体板块。除个别个股外，普遍具有较为乐观的营收CAGR预期。但是，我们建议投资者挑选半导体公司时要注意业绩前高后低的风险。3.医疗保健下的多个子板块，尤其是生物药。除了制药板块外，医疗保健板块均呈现出喜人的增势。制药子板块增速较低，主要是受到了传统化学药企业的拖累。4.通信服务下的媒体板块，尤其是广告公司的业绩增速预期较高。5.可选消费下的酒店餐饮和工业下的航空公司子板块均有较高的增速预期，但它们都是受益于疫情修复逻辑的传统行业。虽然增速预期较高，但未必会受益于风险偏好的上升。逻辑三：股份回购逻辑我们在早先发布的专题报告《港股股份回购专题研究-回购数据抄底策略——利用集体的智慧》（2022年4月27日）中对公司的回购行为与大盘和个股的关系进行了研究。我们认为，公司前期的回购行为也是一个加分项，可以理解为公司对自身股票进行的“抄底”。在前两项更加重要的反弹逻辑具备的情况下，公司的回购行为为我们提供了进一步保障。但这是一条次要逻辑，我们建议投资者仅将其作为一个有益补充。逻辑四：AH股溢价逻辑港股通于2014年11月开通，我们观察2015年以来的AH股溢价情况，发现AH股溢价目前已经触及高位，向上突破了+1标准差水平相当一段距离。对于AH两地上市的公司来说，我们认为AH股溢价处于高位也有助于相关公司的H股实现股价反弹。但是，我们总体上认为这个逻辑不足以单独支撑AH两地上市公司创造超额收益，我们建议投资者在结合前两条主要反弹逻辑的基础上在AH两地上市的公司中优中择优。有相关重叠的标的包括生物药、CXO公司，部分新能源汽车产业链公司，以及少量半导体公司风险提示疫情发展的不确定性；企业业绩不及预期的风险；国际政治经济突发事件；美联储预期外的货币政策风格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1087,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078610957,"gmtCreate":1657676439379,"gmtModify":1676536044469,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078610957","repostId":"1110905137","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}