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xEdmundx
06-29
$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$
xEdmundx
06-29
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$
xEdmundx
06-22
$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$
xEdmundx
06-22
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$
xEdmundx
06-18
Vote for powerbank , most practical item imho.
xEdmundx
06-15
$Apple(AAPL)$
xEdmundx
06-15
$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$
xEdmundx
06-09
$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$
xEdmundx
06-09
$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$
xEdmundx
06-09
$Apple(AAPL)$
xEdmundx
06-01
$Netflix(NFLX)$
xEdmundx
06-01
$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$
xEdmundx
05-26
$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$
xEdmundx
05-26
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$
xEdmundx
05-23
$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$
xEdmundx
05-18
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$
Good
xEdmundx
05-17
$Rio Tinto PLC(RIO)$
xEdmundx
05-17
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$
xEdmundx
05-16
$Broadcom(AVGO)$
xEdmundx
04-18
$Apple(AAPL)$
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","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$</a> ","text":"$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5cb964896f24d642b125d06f3eb32683","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/578020731023744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":578019905905080,"gmtCreate":1782143105165,"gmtModify":1782148855074,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ </a> ","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d3bd35406c14dcdbf49dc7330c6acae","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/578019905905080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":576256144650856,"gmtCreate":1781712421069,"gmtModify":1781712424099,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Vote for powerbank , most practical item imho.","listText":"Vote for powerbank , most practical item imho.","text":"Vote for powerbank , most practical item imho.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/576256144650856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":575312396739512,"gmtCreate":1781465512172,"gmtModify":1781465515160,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a> ","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5e52702affa078080b83fb8e868f3075","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/575312396739512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":575312301978216,"gmtCreate":1781465479026,"gmtModify":1781465481338,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260626 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BKNG\">$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$ </a> ","text":"$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f697f63857266074df7649f85f3f6f2","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/573138052399160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":573137958430008,"gmtCreate":1780961621420,"gmtModify":1780961624024,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/573137958430008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":570333518243400,"gmtCreate":1780247887551,"gmtModify":1780247890517,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$Netflix(NFLX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6bc6695821c292882f3906464dee3505","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/570333518243400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":570333265610336,"gmtCreate":1780247828096,"gmtModify":1780247830431,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260626 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</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Good","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/518743e8e4b702afef98d8ab4ef34d10","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/565541905490592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":565034719265832,"gmtCreate":1778981157281,"gmtModify":1778981160545,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ </a> ","text":"$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ffacf5d9e6f8b85d040025fcd78d4f32","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/565034007372688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":564690928030736,"gmtCreate":1778897223216,"gmtModify":1778897226515,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$ </a> ","text":"$Broadcom(AVGO)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/36540545888b89a6560116fd74a31438","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/564690928030736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":554832972584456,"gmtCreate":1776468316888,"gmtModify":1776477159258,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573716074305937","authorIdStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/79527472b302ff8278dc6fae9efced71","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/554832972584456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":570333518243400,"gmtCreate":1780247887551,"gmtModify":1780247890517,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$Netflix(NFLX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6bc6695821c292882f3906464dee3505","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/570333518243400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":570333265610336,"gmtCreate":1780247828096,"gmtModify":1780247830431,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$</a> ","text":"$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/60d71179ed55d8c76f51d4ddcf241aa8","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/570333265610336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930494896,"gmtCreate":1661991747317,"gmtModify":1676536618801,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Drop more, buy more 🤣","listText":"Drop more, buy more 🤣","text":"Drop more, buy more 🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930494896","repostId":"2264232068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2264232068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1661990277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2264232068?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Prepare for an Epic Finale\": Jeremy Grantham Warns \"Tragedy\" Looms as \"Superbubble\" May Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2264232068","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, warns that a “superbubble” now appears between its third and fin","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30283c0fa974f75392c6e017fc03beb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, warns that a “superbubble” now appears between its third and final act.</span></p><p>A "superbubble" appears dangerously near its "final act" after the recent rally in U.S. stocks lured some investors back into the market just ahead of potential "tragedy," according to Jeremy Grantham, the legendary co-founder of Boston-based investment firm GMO.</p><p>Grantham, who has repeatedly warned investors of a bubble in markets, said in a paper Wednesday that "superbubbles are events unlike any others" and share some common features.</p><p>"One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst," said Grantham. "This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market's initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer's rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern."</p><p>The U.S. stock market tumbled during the first half of 2022 as investors anticipated soaring inflation would lead to a hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 closed at a low this year of 3,666.77 on June 16, before surging over the summer along with other stock benchmarks amid investor optimism over signs that the highest inflation in decades was easing.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently ended that rally with his Aug. 26 speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic symposium, wiping out this month's gains as he reiterated that the central bank would keep tightening its monetary policy to tame soaring inflation. He warned that the Fed would battle inflation until the job was done, even as it may bring pain to households and businesses.</p><p>"The U.S. stock market remains very expensive and an increase in inflation like the one this year has always hurt multiples, although more slowly than normal this time," Grantham said. "But now the fundamentals have also started to deteriorate enormously and surprisingly: Between COVID in China, war in Europe, food and energy crises, record fiscal tightening, and more, the outlook is far grimmer than could have been foreseen in January."</p><p>Grantham had warned in a January paper that the U.S. was approaching the end of a "superbubble" spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>In his paper Wednesday, Grantham said "the current superbubble features an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation (with bonds, housing, and stocks all critically overpriced and now rapidly losing momentum), commodity shock, and Fed hawkishness."</p><p>The bursting of superbubbles has multiple stages, according to Grantham.</p><p>First the bubble forms and then a "setback" in valuations -- such as the one seen in the first half of 2022 -- occurs as investors come to realize "perfection" won't last, he said. "Then there is what we have just seen -- the bear-market rally," before finally "fundamentals deteriorate" and the market drops to a low.</p><p>"Bear-market rallies in superbubbles are easier and faster than any other rallies," he said. "Investors surmise, this stock sold for $100 6 months ago, so now at $50, or $60, or $70, it must be cheap."</p><p>At the intraday peak on Aug. 16, the S&P 500 had made back 58% of its losses since its June low, according to Grantham. That was "eerily similar to these other historic superbubbles."</p><p>For example, "from the November low in 1929 to the April 1930 high, the market rallied 46% -- a 55% recovery of the loss from the peak," he said.</p><p>He also highlighted the "speed and scale" of other bear-market rallies.</p><p>"In 1973, the summer rally after the initial decline recovered 59% of the S&P 500's total loss from the high," he wrote. More recently, in 2000, Grantham wrote that "the Nasdaq (which had been the main event of the tech bubble) recovered 60% of its initial losses in just 2 months."</p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday, with all three major benchmarks booking a fourth straight day of declines on the final day of August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6%.</p><p>"Economic data inevitably lags major turning points in the economy," said Grantham. "To make matters worse, at the turn of events like 2000 and 2007, data series like corporate profits and employment can subsequently be massively revised downwards."</p><p>"It is during this lag that the bear-market rally typically occurs," he said. And now the current superbubble appears to have "paused between the third and final act," according to Grantham.</p><p>"Prepare for an epic finale," he said. "If history repeats, the play will once again be a Tragedy. We must hope this time for a minor one."</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Prepare for an Epic Finale\": Jeremy Grantham Warns \"Tragedy\" Looms as \"Superbubble\" May Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Prepare for an Epic Finale\": Jeremy Grantham Warns \"Tragedy\" Looms as \"Superbubble\" May Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-01 07:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30283c0fa974f75392c6e017fc03beb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, warns that a “superbubble” now appears between its third and final act.</span></p><p>A "superbubble" appears dangerously near its "final act" after the recent rally in U.S. stocks lured some investors back into the market just ahead of potential "tragedy," according to Jeremy Grantham, the legendary co-founder of Boston-based investment firm GMO.</p><p>Grantham, who has repeatedly warned investors of a bubble in markets, said in a paper Wednesday that "superbubbles are events unlike any others" and share some common features.</p><p>"One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst," said Grantham. "This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market's initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer's rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern."</p><p>The U.S. stock market tumbled during the first half of 2022 as investors anticipated soaring inflation would lead to a hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 closed at a low this year of 3,666.77 on June 16, before surging over the summer along with other stock benchmarks amid investor optimism over signs that the highest inflation in decades was easing.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently ended that rally with his Aug. 26 speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic symposium, wiping out this month's gains as he reiterated that the central bank would keep tightening its monetary policy to tame soaring inflation. He warned that the Fed would battle inflation until the job was done, even as it may bring pain to households and businesses.</p><p>"The U.S. stock market remains very expensive and an increase in inflation like the one this year has always hurt multiples, although more slowly than normal this time," Grantham said. "But now the fundamentals have also started to deteriorate enormously and surprisingly: Between COVID in China, war in Europe, food and energy crises, record fiscal tightening, and more, the outlook is far grimmer than could have been foreseen in January."</p><p>Grantham had warned in a January paper that the U.S. was approaching the end of a "superbubble" spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>In his paper Wednesday, Grantham said "the current superbubble features an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation (with bonds, housing, and stocks all critically overpriced and now rapidly losing momentum), commodity shock, and Fed hawkishness."</p><p>The bursting of superbubbles has multiple stages, according to Grantham.</p><p>First the bubble forms and then a "setback" in valuations -- such as the one seen in the first half of 2022 -- occurs as investors come to realize "perfection" won't last, he said. "Then there is what we have just seen -- the bear-market rally," before finally "fundamentals deteriorate" and the market drops to a low.</p><p>"Bear-market rallies in superbubbles are easier and faster than any other rallies," he said. "Investors surmise, this stock sold for $100 6 months ago, so now at $50, or $60, or $70, it must be cheap."</p><p>At the intraday peak on Aug. 16, the S&P 500 had made back 58% of its losses since its June low, according to Grantham. That was "eerily similar to these other historic superbubbles."</p><p>For example, "from the November low in 1929 to the April 1930 high, the market rallied 46% -- a 55% recovery of the loss from the peak," he said.</p><p>He also highlighted the "speed and scale" of other bear-market rallies.</p><p>"In 1973, the summer rally after the initial decline recovered 59% of the S&P 500's total loss from the high," he wrote. More recently, in 2000, Grantham wrote that "the Nasdaq (which had been the main event of the tech bubble) recovered 60% of its initial losses in just 2 months."</p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday, with all three major benchmarks booking a fourth straight day of declines on the final day of August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6%.</p><p>"Economic data inevitably lags major turning points in the economy," said Grantham. "To make matters worse, at the turn of events like 2000 and 2007, data series like corporate profits and employment can subsequently be massively revised downwards."</p><p>"It is during this lag that the bear-market rally typically occurs," he said. And now the current superbubble appears to have "paused between the third and final act," according to Grantham.</p><p>"Prepare for an epic finale," he said. "If history repeats, the play will once again be a Tragedy. We must hope this time for a minor one."</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2264232068","content_text":"Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, warns that a “superbubble” now appears between its third and final act.A \"superbubble\" appears dangerously near its \"final act\" after the recent rally in U.S. stocks lured some investors back into the market just ahead of potential \"tragedy,\" according to Jeremy Grantham, the legendary co-founder of Boston-based investment firm GMO.Grantham, who has repeatedly warned investors of a bubble in markets, said in a paper Wednesday that \"superbubbles are events unlike any others\" and share some common features.\"One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst,\" said Grantham. \"This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market's initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer's rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern.\"The U.S. stock market tumbled during the first half of 2022 as investors anticipated soaring inflation would lead to a hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 closed at a low this year of 3,666.77 on June 16, before surging over the summer along with other stock benchmarks amid investor optimism over signs that the highest inflation in decades was easing.Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently ended that rally with his Aug. 26 speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic symposium, wiping out this month's gains as he reiterated that the central bank would keep tightening its monetary policy to tame soaring inflation. He warned that the Fed would battle inflation until the job was done, even as it may bring pain to households and businesses.\"The U.S. stock market remains very expensive and an increase in inflation like the one this year has always hurt multiples, although more slowly than normal this time,\" Grantham said. \"But now the fundamentals have also started to deteriorate enormously and surprisingly: Between COVID in China, war in Europe, food and energy crises, record fiscal tightening, and more, the outlook is far grimmer than could have been foreseen in January.\"Grantham had warned in a January paper that the U.S. was approaching the end of a \"superbubble\" spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.In his paper Wednesday, Grantham said \"the current superbubble features an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation (with bonds, housing, and stocks all critically overpriced and now rapidly losing momentum), commodity shock, and Fed hawkishness.\"The bursting of superbubbles has multiple stages, according to Grantham.First the bubble forms and then a \"setback\" in valuations -- such as the one seen in the first half of 2022 -- occurs as investors come to realize \"perfection\" won't last, he said. \"Then there is what we have just seen -- the bear-market rally,\" before finally \"fundamentals deteriorate\" and the market drops to a low.\"Bear-market rallies in superbubbles are easier and faster than any other rallies,\" he said. \"Investors surmise, this stock sold for $100 6 months ago, so now at $50, or $60, or $70, it must be cheap.\"At the intraday peak on Aug. 16, the S&P 500 had made back 58% of its losses since its June low, according to Grantham. That was \"eerily similar to these other historic superbubbles.\"For example, \"from the November low in 1929 to the April 1930 high, the market rallied 46% -- a 55% recovery of the loss from the peak,\" he said.He also highlighted the \"speed and scale\" of other bear-market rallies.\"In 1973, the summer rally after the initial decline recovered 59% of the S&P 500's total loss from the high,\" he wrote. More recently, in 2000, Grantham wrote that \"the Nasdaq (which had been the main event of the tech bubble) recovered 60% of its initial losses in just 2 months.\"U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday, with all three major benchmarks booking a fourth straight day of declines on the final day of August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6%.\"Economic data inevitably lags major turning points in the economy,\" said Grantham. \"To make matters worse, at the turn of events like 2000 and 2007, data series like corporate profits and employment can subsequently be massively revised downwards.\"\"It is during this lag that the bear-market rally typically occurs,\" he said. And now the current superbubble appears to have \"paused between the third and final act,\" according to Grantham.\"Prepare for an epic finale,\" he said. \"If history repeats, the play will once again be a Tragedy. We must hope this time for a minor one.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"END":1,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.79}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995341798,"gmtCreate":1661416785218,"gmtModify":1676536514949,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995341798","repostId":"1172569376","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172569376","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661399948,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172569376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-25 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Disaster Guidance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172569376","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia reported its second quarter earnings, missing estimates.Nvidia's Q3 guidance is more i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Nvidia reported its second quarter earnings, missing estimates.</li><li>Nvidia's Q3 guidance is more important, however. Unfortunately, that guidance was horrendous.</li><li>Nvidia is a quality company and well-positioned in the long run. But near-term issues and a too-high valuation make me stay away for now.</li></ul><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has just reported its most recent quarterly results. Profits were below expectations, but overall, results were more or less in line with what the market had anticipated, as Nvidia had pre-announced some of its results not too long ago.</p><p>The company's guidance for the current quarter is much worse than expected, however. Nvidia is clearly feeling hefty pressure from the current crypto winter, and it seems questionable to pay $170 or more per share of Nvidia in the current environment.</p><p><b>Q2 Was Worse Than Expected</b></p><p>Nvidia had pre-announced its revenue results for the second quarter earlier, thus there was no major surprise there - analysts adjusted their models accordingly, and Nvidia met the consensus estimate:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c716ed40d45d1089f6ca834756f1e12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"123\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>But the company nevertheless missed estimates, as margin compression was worse than expected. In fact, Nvidia saw its gross margin drop massively, showcased by the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7f7f877afef390846c2b1ff5b54cef9\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>The company's gross margin dropped from a very attractive 67% to a much less attractive 46% over the last year, almost being cut in half. A 46% gross margin isn't disastrous in absolute terms, but the hefty margin drop naturally has a huge impact on Nvidia's profitability.</p><p>Nvidia was widely regarded as a high-end semiconductor company that was able to generate very strong margins due to its excellent product quality. But at least for now, that has apparently ended, as its gross margin is far lower than what we have gotten used to in recent years.</p><p>At the same time, Nvidia also saw its operating expenses explode upwards. This includes research and development, sales, but also administrative costs. WhileNvidia was able to grow its revenue by 3% year over year, operating expenses somehow rose by almost 40% - or around<i>13x as much</i> as the company's revenue. That is pretty bad, and it is not clear why that happened. Higher R&D expenses aren't bad per se, at least if those result in strong products that improve the longer-term growth outlook.</p><p>But for a growth company like Nvidia, investors generally want to see operating leverage, meaning operating expenses grow less than revenue and gross profit, as this allows a company to grow its profits faster than its sales. The complete opposite of that happened here, as gross margins dropped severely while operating costs rose much more than Nvidia's sales and gross profit. The steep profit decline of more than 50% is the logical consequence of that ill-timed increase in Nvidia's operating expenses.</p><p>With earnings per share at $0.50 for the quarter, Nvidia's EPS is running at a $2 annual rate. That will most likely drop even further in Q3, as indicated by the pretty weak forward guidance (more on that later). Profits are now back at the level seen in early 2020 when earnings per share were in the $0.50 range as well. It's important to note that Nvidia was trading at as low as $50 back then, whereas Nvidia is trading at $170 right here -- or more than 80x the Q2 earnings run rate.</p><p>These areNvidia's non-GAAP results, where items such as share-based compensation are already backed out. GAAP profitability was even worse, as GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.26 -- or around $1 annualized, for a 170x earnings multiple. That's quite expensive for a company with a 3% top-line growth rate.</p><p><b>Nvidia's Forward Guidance Is Horrendous</b></p><p>I want to note first that I do believe that Nvidia is a quality company with a positive long-term outlook, thanks to its strong position in growth markets such as AI, autonomous driving, etc. I also want to note that I have been a bull on Nvidia in the past, and shares are up since my last bullish article. But when the facts change and the underlying performance is much worse than previously thought, then it makes sense to reflect one's formerly bullish stance.</p><p>Nvidia's guidance for the current quarter, Q3, was very bad. The company is forecasting revenues of $5.9 billion for the period, which is not only $1 billion or 15% below the current consensus estimate, but which also indicates a revenue decline of 16.9% versus last year's Q3 revenue of $7.1 billion. That is comparable to Intel's (INTC) revenue decline during the most recent quarter, as Intel reported a drop of 17.3% in its top line for the period. In other words, Nvidia is forecasting a revenue drop that is comparable to the one Intel has just reported -- the huge difference is that Intel trades at 2.1x forward sales, whereas Nvidia trades at 15x forward sales, which is a 600% premium relative to how Intel is valued.</p><p>There are good arguments for Nvidia to trade at a premium versus Intel, such as its stronger position in the fast-growing data center market, where Nvidia saw its revenue rise by 60% in Q2, while Intel's data center dropped. But whether it makes sense for Nvidia to trade at a 600% premium on a sales basis, relative to Intel, while both are seeing their revenues drop, is highly questionable, I believe.</p><p>What's the explanation for the hefty revenue decline that Nvidia forecasts for the current quarter? It's not the overall semiconductor market, that's pretty clear, as the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, or WSTS, has just announced that overall semiconductor revenues would climb 14% in 2022. WhenNvidia's revenues are falling by double-digits, while the broad semiconductor industry is growing by double-digits, then there must be other factors at work. In Nvidia's case, that's the current crypto winter. WhileNvidia's chips were useless for Bitcoin mining, they were excellent for Ethereum mining due to the algorithm Ethereum uses, which is very GPU-friendly. With crypto prices plunging in 2022, Nvidia is feeling pressure due to two reasons.</p><p>First, the company can sell fewer chips to crypto miners, as Ethereum mining has become less profitable, which is why demand dropped. At the same time, less demand by crypto miners results in a looser supply-demand picture, which leads to price declines for GPUs. This is further accelerated by the fact that some crypto miners are selling the GPUs they own on secondary markets, which further pressures pricing for new GPUs.</p><p>Due to the current crypto winter, Nvidia is thus feeling a double hit from lower sales volumes and lower average margins. That's luckily partially made up by the strong performance in other areas, such as data centers. But as the weak guidance for the current quarter shows, Nvidia is not able to fully offset the headwinds from the weak crypto environment. It thus looks like investors have to come to terms with the fact that Nvidia's strong underlying performance was at least partially driven by crypto enthusiasm. Now that crypto has been in a downtrend for some time, that former tailwind is turning into a headwind.</p><p><b>What's The Outlook?</b></p><p>In the very long term, Nvidia will still be a solid growth company, I believe. Data center demand will continue to grow. Autonomous driving is a long-term megatrend that will lead to rising demand for Nvidia's Hyperion platform and similar products. But in the near term, the outlook is far from great.</p><p>SinceNvidia is trading at a pretty high valuation of 46x forward earnings, even before those earnings estimates have declined due to the weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance, I do not believe that Nvidia is a great investment at current prices. There are other semiconductor companies with way better near-term growth outlooks that trade at less than halfNvidia's earnings multiple, such as AMD (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM), and so on. With those picks being available today, I do not see a great reason to buy Nvidia right now. The long-term outlook is positive, but the near-term issues and too-high valuation make me stay away for now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Disaster Guidance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Disaster Guidance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-25 11:59 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536839-nvidia-disaster-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia reported its second quarter earnings, missing estimates.Nvidia's Q3 guidance is more important, however. Unfortunately, that guidance was horrendous.Nvidia is a quality company and well-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536839-nvidia-disaster-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536839-nvidia-disaster-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172569376","content_text":"SummaryNvidia reported its second quarter earnings, missing estimates.Nvidia's Q3 guidance is more important, however. Unfortunately, that guidance was horrendous.Nvidia is a quality company and well-positioned in the long run. But near-term issues and a too-high valuation make me stay away for now.Article ThesisNvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has just reported its most recent quarterly results. Profits were below expectations, but overall, results were more or less in line with what the market had anticipated, as Nvidia had pre-announced some of its results not too long ago.The company's guidance for the current quarter is much worse than expected, however. Nvidia is clearly feeling hefty pressure from the current crypto winter, and it seems questionable to pay $170 or more per share of Nvidia in the current environment.Q2 Was Worse Than ExpectedNvidia had pre-announced its revenue results for the second quarter earlier, thus there was no major surprise there - analysts adjusted their models accordingly, and Nvidia met the consensus estimate:Seeking AlphaBut the company nevertheless missed estimates, as margin compression was worse than expected. In fact, Nvidia saw its gross margin drop massively, showcased by the following table:Seeking AlphaThe company's gross margin dropped from a very attractive 67% to a much less attractive 46% over the last year, almost being cut in half. A 46% gross margin isn't disastrous in absolute terms, but the hefty margin drop naturally has a huge impact on Nvidia's profitability.Nvidia was widely regarded as a high-end semiconductor company that was able to generate very strong margins due to its excellent product quality. But at least for now, that has apparently ended, as its gross margin is far lower than what we have gotten used to in recent years.At the same time, Nvidia also saw its operating expenses explode upwards. This includes research and development, sales, but also administrative costs. WhileNvidia was able to grow its revenue by 3% year over year, operating expenses somehow rose by almost 40% - or around13x as much as the company's revenue. That is pretty bad, and it is not clear why that happened. Higher R&D expenses aren't bad per se, at least if those result in strong products that improve the longer-term growth outlook.But for a growth company like Nvidia, investors generally want to see operating leverage, meaning operating expenses grow less than revenue and gross profit, as this allows a company to grow its profits faster than its sales. The complete opposite of that happened here, as gross margins dropped severely while operating costs rose much more than Nvidia's sales and gross profit. The steep profit decline of more than 50% is the logical consequence of that ill-timed increase in Nvidia's operating expenses.With earnings per share at $0.50 for the quarter, Nvidia's EPS is running at a $2 annual rate. That will most likely drop even further in Q3, as indicated by the pretty weak forward guidance (more on that later). Profits are now back at the level seen in early 2020 when earnings per share were in the $0.50 range as well. It's important to note that Nvidia was trading at as low as $50 back then, whereas Nvidia is trading at $170 right here -- or more than 80x the Q2 earnings run rate.These areNvidia's non-GAAP results, where items such as share-based compensation are already backed out. GAAP profitability was even worse, as GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.26 -- or around $1 annualized, for a 170x earnings multiple. That's quite expensive for a company with a 3% top-line growth rate.Nvidia's Forward Guidance Is HorrendousI want to note first that I do believe that Nvidia is a quality company with a positive long-term outlook, thanks to its strong position in growth markets such as AI, autonomous driving, etc. I also want to note that I have been a bull on Nvidia in the past, and shares are up since my last bullish article. But when the facts change and the underlying performance is much worse than previously thought, then it makes sense to reflect one's formerly bullish stance.Nvidia's guidance for the current quarter, Q3, was very bad. The company is forecasting revenues of $5.9 billion for the period, which is not only $1 billion or 15% below the current consensus estimate, but which also indicates a revenue decline of 16.9% versus last year's Q3 revenue of $7.1 billion. That is comparable to Intel's (INTC) revenue decline during the most recent quarter, as Intel reported a drop of 17.3% in its top line for the period. In other words, Nvidia is forecasting a revenue drop that is comparable to the one Intel has just reported -- the huge difference is that Intel trades at 2.1x forward sales, whereas Nvidia trades at 15x forward sales, which is a 600% premium relative to how Intel is valued.There are good arguments for Nvidia to trade at a premium versus Intel, such as its stronger position in the fast-growing data center market, where Nvidia saw its revenue rise by 60% in Q2, while Intel's data center dropped. But whether it makes sense for Nvidia to trade at a 600% premium on a sales basis, relative to Intel, while both are seeing their revenues drop, is highly questionable, I believe.What's the explanation for the hefty revenue decline that Nvidia forecasts for the current quarter? It's not the overall semiconductor market, that's pretty clear, as the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, or WSTS, has just announced that overall semiconductor revenues would climb 14% in 2022. WhenNvidia's revenues are falling by double-digits, while the broad semiconductor industry is growing by double-digits, then there must be other factors at work. In Nvidia's case, that's the current crypto winter. WhileNvidia's chips were useless for Bitcoin mining, they were excellent for Ethereum mining due to the algorithm Ethereum uses, which is very GPU-friendly. With crypto prices plunging in 2022, Nvidia is feeling pressure due to two reasons.First, the company can sell fewer chips to crypto miners, as Ethereum mining has become less profitable, which is why demand dropped. At the same time, less demand by crypto miners results in a looser supply-demand picture, which leads to price declines for GPUs. This is further accelerated by the fact that some crypto miners are selling the GPUs they own on secondary markets, which further pressures pricing for new GPUs.Due to the current crypto winter, Nvidia is thus feeling a double hit from lower sales volumes and lower average margins. That's luckily partially made up by the strong performance in other areas, such as data centers. But as the weak guidance for the current quarter shows, Nvidia is not able to fully offset the headwinds from the weak crypto environment. It thus looks like investors have to come to terms with the fact that Nvidia's strong underlying performance was at least partially driven by crypto enthusiasm. Now that crypto has been in a downtrend for some time, that former tailwind is turning into a headwind.What's The Outlook?In the very long term, Nvidia will still be a solid growth company, I believe. Data center demand will continue to grow. Autonomous driving is a long-term megatrend that will lead to rising demand for Nvidia's Hyperion platform and similar products. But in the near term, the outlook is far from great.SinceNvidia is trading at a pretty high valuation of 46x forward earnings, even before those earnings estimates have declined due to the weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance, I do not believe that Nvidia is a great investment at current prices. There are other semiconductor companies with way better near-term growth outlooks that trade at less than halfNvidia's earnings multiple, such as AMD (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM), and so on. With those picks being available today, I do not see a great reason to buy Nvidia right now. The long-term outlook is positive, but the near-term issues and too-high valuation make me stay away for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":580444362687280,"gmtCreate":1782740274252,"gmtModify":1782740276444,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$</a> ","text":"$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83def2196697cd27650d5266d625c1ab","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/580444362687280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":34,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":580237303497696,"gmtCreate":1782689604100,"gmtModify":1782689606438,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5a5295b381bbe01ed64892dcc1ed7f01","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/580237303497696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":573138553132048,"gmtCreate":1780961732497,"gmtModify":1780961734683,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$</a> ","text":"$SPY 20260626 700.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4ce63ea230906a70fc55c66d2b88d051","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/573138553132048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":578020731023744,"gmtCreate":1782143144669,"gmtModify":1782143146885,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT\">$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$</a> ","text":"$SPY 20260731 710.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5cb964896f24d642b125d06f3eb32683","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/578020731023744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":578019905905080,"gmtCreate":1782143105165,"gmtModify":1782148855074,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ </a> ","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d3bd35406c14dcdbf49dc7330c6acae","width":"1074","height":"1644"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/578019905905080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":576256144650856,"gmtCreate":1781712421069,"gmtModify":1781712424099,"author":{"id":"3573716074305937","authorId":"3573716074305937","name":"xEdmundx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d812cf722d8f8db391f536889b5466","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573716074305937","idStr":"3573716074305937"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Vote for powerbank , most practical item imho.","listText":"Vote for powerbank , most practical item imho.","text":"Vote for powerbank , most practical item imho.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/576256144650856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
