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2021-05-13

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Muddy Waters shorted Lemonade: It has a serious security vulnerability and should be taken offline immediately.

2021-05-13

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May may be a turning point for the entire market: the Federal Reserve's "natural enemy" has arrived!

2021-05-13

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Google announced it had won the contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX.

2021-05-13

very good

Alibaba fell nearly 5% intraday, with its stock price dropping to its lowest level since July last year.

2021-04-29

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Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.

2021-04-29

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The logic behind the Federal Reserve's "indecision"

2021-04-26

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The Dallas Fed's business activity index hit a new high since 2006 in April.

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The company is required to immediately take the website offline and fix the vulnerability. Affected by this news, Lemonade's stock price fell by more than 7% in pre-market trading before gradually recovering. As of press time, Lemonade was up 0.68% at $60.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98446c1f3c305e0b0e624ee8263a4356\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is understood that Muddy Waters is not The first short seller to target Lemonade; The Friendly Bear also shorted The company at The end of last year.</p><p>Several investment banks downgraded their ratings on internet insurance company Lemonade after its first-quarter loss per share exceeded market expectations. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Andrew Kligerman pointed out that unexpected losses caused by the Texas storm were the main reason for the stock's losses. Financial reports show that the 121% gross loss rate in the first quarter included 50% of the impact of catastrophic events. Although the adjusted EBITDA loss of $41 million was in line with the bank's expectations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>We still give Lemonade an \"underperforming\" rating.</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Muddy Waters shorted Lemonade: It has a serious security vulnerability and should be taken offline immediately.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMuddy Waters shorted Lemonade: It has a serious security vulnerability and should be taken offline immediately.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 21:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, May 13, Muddy Waters claimed that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">Lemonade</a>The website has a serious security vulnerability that may expose customers' personally identifiable information (PII). The company is required to immediately take the website offline and fix the vulnerability. Affected by this news, Lemonade's stock price fell by more than 7% in pre-market trading before gradually recovering. As of press time, Lemonade was up 0.68% at $60.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98446c1f3c305e0b0e624ee8263a4356\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is understood that Muddy Waters is not The first short seller to target Lemonade; The Friendly Bear also shorted The company at The end of last year.</p><p>Several investment banks downgraded their ratings on internet insurance company Lemonade after its first-quarter loss per share exceeded market expectations. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Andrew Kligerman pointed out that unexpected losses caused by the Texas storm were the main reason for the stock's losses. Financial reports show that the 121% gross loss rate in the first quarter included 50% of the impact of catastrophic events. Although the adjusted EBITDA loss of $41 million was in line with the bank's expectations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>We still give Lemonade an \"underperforming\" rating.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474595.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a485199ba4d98518695cb468836114","relate_stocks":{"LMND":"Lemonade, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474595.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135621359","content_text":"5月13日(周四)，浑水公司(Muddy  Waters)声称，Lemonade网站存在严重安全漏洞，可能会暴露客户个人身份信息(PII)，要求公司立即让网站下线，修复漏洞。受此消息影响，Lemonade盘前股价一度跌逾7%，后逐步回暖，盘初截至发稿，Lemonade涨0.68%，报60.57美元。据了解，浑水并不是第一家瞄准Lemonade的做空者，去年年底，The Friendly Bear也做空该公司。受第一季度每股亏损大于市场预期的影响，多家投行降低了对互联网保险公司Lemonade的评级。其中瑞银分析师Andrew  Kligerman指出，德州风暴造成的超预期的损失是该股亏损的主要原因。财报显示，第一季度121%的毛损率中包含50%的巨灾影响。虽然调整后的EBITDA亏损4100万美元符合该行预期，但瑞银还是给予Lemonade“跑输大市”评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LMND":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198952670,"gmtCreate":1620920597790,"gmtModify":1704350564738,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198952670","repostId":"1129245857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129245857","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620913695,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129245857?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 21:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"May may be a turning point for the entire market: the Federal Reserve's \"natural enemy\" has arrived!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129245857","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"通胀爆了，就业萎靡……这叫啥来着？","content":"<p>Author: Le Ming</p><p><b>primer</b></p><p>At the recent Federal Reserve \"stood up\" meeting, Powell was asked two awkward questions: Inflation expectations seem to be rising sharply now, what would you do if inflation reached the target before employment? Why are you so confident that inflation won't get out of control this time? It won't be like the 1970s?</p><p>Powell was not very happy about either of these questions, because they hit an awkward pain point.</p><p>Now the pain points are beginning to appear in the data: at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, May 12, the U.S. Department of Labor released the U.S. April CPI. Data shows that not only the overall CPI in the United States but also the core CPI saw astonishing record growth in April. In April, the US overall CPI surged 4.2% year-on-year (compared to market expectations of 3.6%), marking the highest growth rate since September 2008; The core CPI rose 3% year-on-year in April, the largest increase since January 1996.</p><p>Inflation approaching 5% is not something that long-term average inflation of 2% can tolerate unless it falls next month, which would be a \"false alarm.\" However, the possibility of a significant decline next month currently seems unlikely.</p><p>The market also conveyed this expectation through prices: the probability of an interest rate hike in 2022 has reached 100% after the data was released. This, in turn, means that the timing of QE tapering, which was just postponed because employment data fell significantly short of expectations, has been brought forward again.</p><p>This feeling of being pulled from side to side and not knowing what to do seems a bit familiar, and it's also the scenario the Federal Reserve fears most: inflation explodes, employment is sluggish... What's that called again?</p><p><b>The market is starting to distrust the Federal Reserve's rhetoric.</b></p><p>Even before today's data release, the market had already expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve's claim that long-term inflation would remain at 2%.</p><p>The April consumer survey (equivalent to the Federal Reserve's \"poll\") released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that as the economy recovers from the crisis caused by the pandemic, the median expectation for U.S. consumer inflation over the next year is 3.4%, the highest level since September 2013. Inflation expectations for the next three years remain unchanged at 3.1%.</p><p>The reason the Federal Reserve cares so much about inflation \"polls\" is that the most dangerous thing about inflation is that it spirals upwards after a \"public consensus\" is formed.</p><p>Inflation expectations can be roughly divided into three levels: 1. Inflation expectations implicit in financial products in the market; 2. The so-called \"consensus\" inflation forecast by economists (these two layers are basically consistent with the Federal Reserve's forecast). 3. The public's real inflation expectations.</p><p>The third level determines the characteristics of self-realization of inflation. If a period of relatively high inflation (likely above 2%) leads American workers to believe that the cost of living has increased and that wages need to be raised; If manufacturers believe they need to raise prices to cope with higher wages and various costs, then it is not impossible that inflation will eventually rise from 2%+ to 5%, or even 10%+ in the 1970s.</p><p>In fact, the last time the US CPI reached 4.2%, the Federal Reserve's interest rate was as high as 20%—during the stagflation period of the 1970s.</p><p><b>Stagflation!?</b></p><p>Stagflation is the Federal Reserve's most feared \"natural enemy\"—when stagflation occurs, the Fed's policies lose the initiative and enter a completely passive state. In this situation, while the Federal Reserve tightens policy to control inflation, the economy cannot withstand it. However, if policies are relaxed to save the economy, inflation will skyrocket—left and right are not human, and there is no solution; We can only endure it and let time digest it slowly, just like in the 1970s.</p><p>Although the month's data theoretically only exacerbated market concerns and did not cause panic—after all, the United States was indeed in a state of deflation in April last year, and the base effect mentioned by the Federal Reserve did exist.</p><p>Chart: Severe deflation in the United States last April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c80e9218155a4a7d34e31254600a07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the May data can fall back to around 3%, which is acceptable to the market, then inflation expectations can still be \"saved\"; However, if it remains around 4% next month, the Federal Reserve may need to quickly adopt a hawkish stance to control inflation expectations.</p><p>In addition, although the April non-farm payroll data was very unsatisfactory (17.5199, -0.26, -1.46%), a significant improvement is expected in May. For details, see: Biden's \"awakening\"! Can American employment exceed one million in May?.</p><p><b>What does it mean?</b></p><p>Although this data is shocking, it is still a \"one-off\" data - it is very normal for market probabilities to be adjusted according to the latest situation. A 100% rate hike probability does not mean that it will definitely happen, because there is still a long time until the end of 2022, and many data points will change the probability again in the meantime.</p><p>Nevertheless, this will still make the May data a \"decisive point\".</p><p>First, the US economy had already escaped deflation last May, and its inflation readings were not much different from those for the rest of 2020. If inflation reaches around 4% again in May, it can no longer be said to be a base issue. At this point, the Federal Reserve needs to \"make a statement,\" otherwise inflation is very likely to enter a \"self-fulfilling\" channel.</p><p>Furthermore, it doesn't matter whether employment in May is good or bad: good employment indicates greater inflationary pressure. It's hard to say that stagflation is getting closer—it's bad news for the market in any case. This is why the Federal Reserve is now repeatedly emphasizing that employment now needs to be monitored by the labor force participation rate, because not only is the unemployment rate data \"out of order,\" but even the non-farm payroll data is no longer very effective.</p><p>May could be a turning point for the entire market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>May may be a turning point for the entire market: the Federal Reserve's \"natural enemy\" has arrived!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMay may be a turning point for the entire market: the Federal Reserve's \"natural enemy\" has arrived!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 21:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Le Ming</p><p><b>primer</b></p><p>At the recent Federal Reserve \"stood up\" meeting, Powell was asked two awkward questions: Inflation expectations seem to be rising sharply now, what would you do if inflation reached the target before employment? Why are you so confident that inflation won't get out of control this time? It won't be like the 1970s?</p><p>Powell was not very happy about either of these questions, because they hit an awkward pain point.</p><p>Now the pain points are beginning to appear in the data: at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, May 12, the U.S. Department of Labor released the U.S. April CPI. Data shows that not only the overall CPI in the United States but also the core CPI saw astonishing record growth in April. In April, the US overall CPI surged 4.2% year-on-year (compared to market expectations of 3.6%), marking the highest growth rate since September 2008; The core CPI rose 3% year-on-year in April, the largest increase since January 1996.</p><p>Inflation approaching 5% is not something that long-term average inflation of 2% can tolerate unless it falls next month, which would be a \"false alarm.\" However, the possibility of a significant decline next month currently seems unlikely.</p><p>The market also conveyed this expectation through prices: the probability of an interest rate hike in 2022 has reached 100% after the data was released. This, in turn, means that the timing of QE tapering, which was just postponed because employment data fell significantly short of expectations, has been brought forward again.</p><p>This feeling of being pulled from side to side and not knowing what to do seems a bit familiar, and it's also the scenario the Federal Reserve fears most: inflation explodes, employment is sluggish... What's that called again?</p><p><b>The market is starting to distrust the Federal Reserve's rhetoric.</b></p><p>Even before today's data release, the market had already expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve's claim that long-term inflation would remain at 2%.</p><p>The April consumer survey (equivalent to the Federal Reserve's \"poll\") released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that as the economy recovers from the crisis caused by the pandemic, the median expectation for U.S. consumer inflation over the next year is 3.4%, the highest level since September 2013. Inflation expectations for the next three years remain unchanged at 3.1%.</p><p>The reason the Federal Reserve cares so much about inflation \"polls\" is that the most dangerous thing about inflation is that it spirals upwards after a \"public consensus\" is formed.</p><p>Inflation expectations can be roughly divided into three levels: 1. Inflation expectations implicit in financial products in the market; 2. The so-called \"consensus\" inflation forecast by economists (these two layers are basically consistent with the Federal Reserve's forecast). 3. The public's real inflation expectations.</p><p>The third level determines the characteristics of self-realization of inflation. If a period of relatively high inflation (likely above 2%) leads American workers to believe that the cost of living has increased and that wages need to be raised; If manufacturers believe they need to raise prices to cope with higher wages and various costs, then it is not impossible that inflation will eventually rise from 2%+ to 5%, or even 10%+ in the 1970s.</p><p>In fact, the last time the US CPI reached 4.2%, the Federal Reserve's interest rate was as high as 20%—during the stagflation period of the 1970s.</p><p><b>Stagflation!?</b></p><p>Stagflation is the Federal Reserve's most feared \"natural enemy\"—when stagflation occurs, the Fed's policies lose the initiative and enter a completely passive state. In this situation, while the Federal Reserve tightens policy to control inflation, the economy cannot withstand it. However, if policies are relaxed to save the economy, inflation will skyrocket—left and right are not human, and there is no solution; We can only endure it and let time digest it slowly, just like in the 1970s.</p><p>Although the month's data theoretically only exacerbated market concerns and did not cause panic—after all, the United States was indeed in a state of deflation in April last year, and the base effect mentioned by the Federal Reserve did exist.</p><p>Chart: Severe deflation in the United States last April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c80e9218155a4a7d34e31254600a07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the May data can fall back to around 3%, which is acceptable to the market, then inflation expectations can still be \"saved\"; However, if it remains around 4% next month, the Federal Reserve may need to quickly adopt a hawkish stance to control inflation expectations.</p><p>In addition, although the April non-farm payroll data was very unsatisfactory (17.5199, -0.26, -1.46%), a significant improvement is expected in May. For details, see: Biden's \"awakening\"! Can American employment exceed one million in May?.</p><p><b>What does it mean?</b></p><p>Although this data is shocking, it is still a \"one-off\" data - it is very normal for market probabilities to be adjusted according to the latest situation. A 100% rate hike probability does not mean that it will definitely happen, because there is still a long time until the end of 2022, and many data points will change the probability again in the meantime.</p><p>Nevertheless, this will still make the May data a \"decisive point\".</p><p>First, the US economy had already escaped deflation last May, and its inflation readings were not much different from those for the rest of 2020. If inflation reaches around 4% again in May, it can no longer be said to be a base issue. At this point, the Federal Reserve needs to \"make a statement,\" otherwise inflation is very likely to enter a \"self-fulfilling\" channel.</p><p>Furthermore, it doesn't matter whether employment in May is good or bad: good employment indicates greater inflationary pressure. It's hard to say that stagflation is getting closer—it's bad news for the market in any case. This is why the Federal Reserve is now repeatedly emphasizing that employment now needs to be monitored by the labor force participation rate, because not only is the unemployment rate data \"out of order,\" but even the non-farm payroll data is no longer very effective.</p><p>May could be a turning point for the entire market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129245857","content_text":"作者：乐鸣引子在刚过去不久的美联储“放鸽子”会上，鲍威尔被问到两个尴尬的问题：现在通胀预期看起来上得很猛，万一通胀比就业先达标了，你咋办？你咋那么有信心这次通胀不会失控？不会像上世纪70年代一样？对于这两个问题，鲍威尔都不太高兴，因为问到了尴尬的痛点。如今痛点开始在数据上显现：5月12日周三晚8点半，美国劳工部公布了美国4月CPI。数据显示，不光是美国的整体CPI还是核心CPI，4月份增速都创出惊人记录。其中，美国4月整体CPI同比大增4.2%（市场预期3.6%），增速创2008年9月以来新高；4月核心CPI同比大增3%，创1996年1月以来最大增长。奔5%的通胀，可不是长期通胀平均2%可以忍受的，除非下个月就下来，表示这是“虚惊一场”，但是下个月大幅下滑的可能性目前看来不大。市场通过价格也传达了这一预期：2022年升息的可能性，在数据公布后已经高达100%。这反过来意味着，刚刚因为就业数据大幅不及预期而推迟的缩减QE时间，又再次被提前。这种被左右拉扯不知如何是好的感觉有点似曾相识，也是美联储最害怕的情景：通胀爆了，就业萎靡……这叫啥来着？市场开始不信美联储的说辞了早在今天数据公布之前，市场已经对美联储所谓长期通胀保持2%的说辞表示出了怀疑态度。纽约联邦储备银行公布的4月消费者调查（相当于美联储的“民调”）显示：随着经济从疫情引发的危机中复苏，美国消费者未来一年通胀的预期中值为3.4%，创2013年9月以来最高水平。对未来三年通胀的预期维持在3.1%不变。之所以美联储这么在乎通胀“民调”，是因为通胀最可怕的一点就是形成“民众共识”后螺旋上升。对于通胀的预期，可以粗略分成三个层次：1． 市场上金融产品所隐含的通胀预期；2．所谓经济学家们“共识”预测的通胀预（这两个层基本上跟美联储的预测是一致的）3． 民众的真实通胀预期。第三个层次决定了通胀自我实现的特点。如果经过了一段时间相对高的通胀（很可能高于2%），让美国工人认为生活成本提高了，需要加工资；让厂商认为需要提价才能应对更高的工资和各种成本，那通胀最终从2%+冲上5%，甚至是70年代的10%+都不是没有可能的。实际上，上一次美国CPI高达4.2%的时候，美联储的利率高达20%——正是70年代的滞胀时期。滞胀！？滞胀是美联储最害怕的“天敌”——在滞胀出现时，美联储政策就会失去主动权，进入完全被动状态。因为在这种情况下，美联储收紧政策，虽然可以控制通胀，但是经济受不了；但是如果放松政策救经济，通胀就上天了——左右不是人，无解；只能硬抗，让时间来慢慢消化，像70年代一样。虽然一个月的数据在理论上只是加剧了市场担心，不至于产生恐慌——毕竟去年4月份的美国确实是通缩状态，美联储所说的基数效应确实存在。图：去年4月美国通缩得厉害如果，五月数据可以回落到让市场可以接受的3%左右，那通胀预期还“有得救”；但如果下个月还维持4%左右，那美联储很可能需要赶紧“放鹰”，控制一下通胀预期。另外，就业方面虽然4月非农数据非常不理想(17.5199,-0.26,-1.46%)，但是有望在5月出现大幅改观，详见：拜登“觉醒”！5月美国就业可以破百万么？。意味着什么本次数据虽然令人震惊，但是仍属于“一次性”的性质——市场概率根据最新情况进行调整是非常正常的，100%加息概率也不代表一定发生，因为距离2022年底还有很长时间，中间还有很多数据会再次更改概率。尽管如此，这仍会让5月份数据变成一个“决胜点”。首先，去年5月份美国经济已经摆脱通缩，其通胀读数跟2020年剩下的月份差距不大，如果5月通胀再次高达4%左右，就不能再说是基数问题了——这时候美联储需要“表示表示”，否则通胀很有可能进入“自我实现”通道。另外，不管5月就业好还是不好，都已经“无所谓”了：好就表明通胀压力更大；不好说明滞胀越来越近了——怎么样对市场而言都是坏消息。这就是为什么美联储现在开始反复强调，就业现在需要盯住劳动参与率，因为不仅失业率数据“失灵了”，就连非农数据现在都不太好使了。5月或是整个市场的转折点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198956083,"gmtCreate":1620920541042,"gmtModify":1704350562955,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198956083","repostId":"1167274875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167274875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620916842,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167274875?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Google announced it had won the contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167274875","media":"智通财经","summary":"显然，这笔交易代表着谷歌在云计算市场的一次胜利。","content":"<p>On Thursday, it was reported that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>It was announced today that its cloud division has won a contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX, Elon Musk's space exploration technology company, to help SpaceX provide internet services through its Starlink satellites.</p><p>According to the cooperation agreement, SpaceX will install a ground station at Google's data center to connect to SpaceX's Starlink satellites, and plans to provide high-speed internet services to enterprises in the second half of this year. Clearly, this deal represents a victory for Google in the cloud computing market. Currently, the cloud computing market is developing rapidly, and Google is striving to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>They are grabbing market share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debeb3f13e3f9c15841bd1543c97f5d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google announced it had won the contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle announced it had won the contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 22:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, it was reported that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>It was announced today that its cloud division has won a contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX, Elon Musk's space exploration technology company, to help SpaceX provide internet services through its Starlink satellites.</p><p>According to the cooperation agreement, SpaceX will install a ground station at Google's data center to connect to SpaceX's Starlink satellites, and plans to provide high-speed internet services to enterprises in the second half of this year. Clearly, this deal represents a victory for Google in the cloud computing market. Currently, the cloud computing market is developing rapidly, and Google is striving to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>They are grabbing market share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debeb3f13e3f9c15841bd1543c97f5d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474654.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab2a423ce1c2af9697237b229cede72","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474654.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1167274875","content_text":"周四，据报道，谷歌今日宣布，其云部门已赢得一份合同，向埃隆·马斯克旗下太空探索技术公司SpaceX提供计算和网络资源，以帮助SpaceX通过其“星链”（Starlink）卫星提供互联网服务。根据合作协议，SpaceX将在谷歌数据中心安装地面站，连接SpaceX的“星链”卫星，计划在今年下半年为企业提供快速互联网服务。显然，这笔交易代表着谷歌在云计算市场的一次胜利。当前，云计算市场发展迅速，而谷歌正努力从亚马逊和微软手中抢夺份额。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198958520,"gmtCreate":1620920496760,"gmtModify":1704350562311,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"very good","listText":"very good","text":"very good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198958520","repostId":"1124198478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124198478","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620917329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124198478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Alibaba fell nearly 5% intraday, with its stock price dropping to its lowest level since July last year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124198478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损","content":"<p>Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The stock fell nearly 5% during the session, hitting a low of $209.50, down more than 30% from its peak in October last year. The current stock price is the lowest since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of news, Alibaba today released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2021. The company reported an operating loss of 7.663 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, marking its first quarterly loss since Alibaba's listing. The company stated that the losses were mainly due to fines imposed in antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-time impact, the company's operating profit was RMB 10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>ALIBABA GROUP FOURTH QUARTERLY AND FULL YEAR REPORT 2021</b></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba fell nearly 5% intraday, with its stock price dropping to its lowest level since July last year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba fell nearly 5% intraday, with its stock price dropping to its lowest level since July last year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The stock fell nearly 5% during the session, hitting a low of $209.50, down more than 30% from its peak in October last year. The current stock price is the lowest since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of news, Alibaba today released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2021. The company reported an operating loss of 7.663 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, marking its first quarterly loss since Alibaba's listing. The company stated that the losses were mainly due to fines imposed in antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-time impact, the company's operating profit was RMB 10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>ALIBABA GROUP FOURTH QUARTERLY AND FULL YEAR REPORT 2021</b></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124198478","content_text":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损76.63亿，为阿里上市以来的首次季度亏损。公司称亏损主要受反垄断调查的罚款影响。剔除该一次性影响，公司的经营利润为人民币105.65亿元，同比增长48%。点击查看：阿里巴巴集团2021财年四季度及全年业绩报告","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109509871,"gmtCreate":1619703336993,"gmtModify":1704728287204,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109509871","repostId":"1170908014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170908014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618906754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170908014?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109275782,"gmtCreate":1619703250546,"gmtModify":1704728283456,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109275782","repostId":"2131309849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2131309849","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619676617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2131309849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 14:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The logic behind the Federal Reserve's \"indecision\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131309849","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"事件：美国时间2021年4月28日，美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明，美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变","content":"<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve released its April FOMC meeting statement, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave an interview.</i></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy section remains unchanged, in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>2. The April statement was more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) It emphasized the improvement of economic and employment indicators.</b>The March statement described economic and employment indicators as a \"rebound\" after a \"slow recovery,\" while this time it was described as \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support.\" We believe this is related to the significantly better economic data in March than in February.<b>。 2) The statement regarding inflation has been significantly adjusted, which may imply that the year-on-year PCE in March has exceeded 2%.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%,\" but this statement has removed that statement and replaced it with \"rising inflation mainly reflects temporary factors.\" Our benchmarks show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-month PCE growth rate in the United States after March is likely to exceed 2%. 3) The description of economic risks has been weakened.</b>The March statement described the economic outlook as \"considerable,\" while this time it only downplayed the fact that economic risks still exist. This is related to the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and vaccination in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview remarks were generally dovish, but somewhat \"indecisive,\" which the market did not buy into.</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>When asked by a reporter what he meant by \"strengthening\" in the statement, Powell said that firstly, some economic data is very good, and secondly, there is still a significant gap between us and our targets.<b>2) Inflation:</b>When asked by a reporter how to define \"mainly due to temporary factors,\" Powell said that the main factor driving rising inflation is the base effect, but of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. when asked by a reporter if there was a \"red line\" for inflation expectations, Powell said that inflation expectations are inherently volatile, and the key question is not whether (a certain level) can be reached, but when (when).<b>3) Reduce QE:</b>When asked by a reporter whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering its bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some assets are very expensive, and you see some bubbles in the capital market, which is a fact.\"</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a lot to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell mentioned a stock market \"bubble\" in his speech, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower.</b>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48%, the S&P 500 fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28%. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the US Dollar Index also declined.</p><p><b>4. How should we view the Federal Reserve's current \"indecision\"?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, such as whether the US economy has reached the \"inflection point\" that Powell called, what is the \"substantial progress\" he often mentions, and what is the tolerance limit for inflation indicators? However, Powell's remarks remained somewhat vague. We believe that, at this stage,<b>The Federal Reserve's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative,\" or rather, more inclined towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism.</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" was given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators was given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data cannot necessarily be \"linearly extrapolated\".</b>The future trend of the US economy may take two completely different directions: one is that the recovery will be \"blocked\" due to the uncertainty surrounding the current global COVID-19 pandemic and the progress of vaccine rollout; Another possibility is that the recovery is \"too strong,\" which is due to inflationary pressures caused by a variety of factors, including global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, the commodity cycle, and the base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may begin discussing tapering QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be put on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%. We estimate that it may take around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of its population. 2) Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness a peak in inflation indicators in April and May. There may be two differences of opinion at that time: one is the \"strength\": is it a normal rebound during the low base effect and economic recovery, or an unhealthy outbreak due to the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus in the early stages? On the other hand, there is the \"duration\". Is it a \"temporary rise\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or will the supply and demand imbalance objectively continue, or (due to \"price stickiness\") may the price adjustment be long-term. If inflation data for April and May is too high, the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin discussing tapering QE in June or July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy remains unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, the Federal Reserve released its April FOMC meeting statement, which left the monetary policy section \"unchanged,\" in line with market expectations.</b>Compared to March, the monetary policy section of the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement remained unchanged, meaning that the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the pace of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, and continuing to implement repurchase agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its outlook for the U.S. economy, making it more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Chart 2):</p><p><b>1) It emphasized the improvement of economic and employment indicators.</b>The March statement described economic and employment indicators as a \"rebound\" after a \"slow recovery,\" while this time it was described as \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support,\" and emphasized that the situation in relatively vulnerable sectors has also \"shown improvement.\"</p><p><b>2) The statement regarding inflation has been significantly adjusted, which may imply that the year-on-year PCE in March has exceeded 2%.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%,\" but this statement has removed that statement and replaced it with \"rising inflation mainly reflects temporary factors.\" Given that the Federal Reserve generally obtains PCE data in advance, the year-on-year PCE growth rate for March, which is expected to be released on April 30, is likely to have already exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The description of economic risks has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically pointed out that the public health crisis was putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment, and inflation,\" but this time it was only described broadly as putting pressure on the \"economy.\" We believe this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to high levels, and the \"economy\" here mainly refers to two aspects: economic activity and employment. Furthermore, the March statement considered the economic outlook risks \"considerable,\" while this time the adjective was removed, only downplaying the fact that economic risks still exist.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report, \"Thinking About the Fed's Next Steps,\" we pointed out that although it was only a month and a half apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting were significantly different from the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is a significant gap between the US economic data for February and March.</b>Disrupted by extreme cold weather in February, US economic data was sluggish again, while economic data for March and April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm payrolls increased significantly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial jobless claims since April has declined significantly (Chart 4), indicating that the US economic recovery path is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to emerge in March, with US inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) rising significantly in March (Charts 5 and 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculations indicate that the monthly year-on-year PCE growth rate in the United States after March is likely to exceed 2%.</b>The inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index). Based on the Federal Reserve's latest forecast in March (the median year-on-year PCE forecast for the whole of 2021 is 2.4%), we calculate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 will be 0.185%. Using this as a benchmark path for the evolution of PCE inflation, we can predict that the year-on-year PCE growth rate will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to reach peaks, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate. Recent price increases may further push up US inflation. For example, the US CPI in March was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the baseline path, and the market currently predicts that March PCE will increase by 0.3% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the United States is under good control of the epidemic (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to progress (Chart 9). Compared to March, economic risks have indeed decreased at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Powell's remarks appeared somewhat \"indecisive,\" and the market failed to accept them.</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview remarks were generally dovish, but somewhat \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Description of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labor market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. When asked by a reporter what he meant by \"strengthening\" in the statement, Powell said that firstly, some economic data is very good, and secondly, there is still a significant gap between us and our targets.</p><p><b>2) Expression of inflation:</b>We seem unlikely to see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, it is unlikely to see inflation continue to rise. The temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet rate hike standards. When asked by a reporter how to define \"mainly due to temporary factors,\" Powell said that the main factor driving rising inflation is the base effect, but of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. when asked by a reporter if there was a \"red line\" for inflation expectations, Powell said that inflation expectations are inherently volatile, and the key question is not whether (a certain level) can be reached, but when (when).</p><p><b>3) Response to QE reduction:</b>When asked by a reporter whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE), Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases. Economic activity has just rebounded recently, and it will take some time to reach the standard.</p><p><b>4) Regarding financial stability and asset prices.</b>“Some assets are very expensive, and you’re seeing some bubbles in the capital markets, that’s a fact. I wouldn’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a lot to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy.”</p><p><b>5) About digital currencies.</b>A reporter asked if China and other countries are launching digital currencies and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell responded that the Federal Reserve's purpose and impact in promoting digital currencies are different from those of other central banks, requiring extreme caution. \"Correctness is more important than speed.\"</p><p><b>Following the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech, the market \"did not buy it.\"</b>After the Federal Reserve announced its decision and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly. However, after Powell mentioned a stock market \"bubble\" in his speech, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and eventually closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.48%, the S&P 500 down 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.28%. Following Powell's one-hour speech, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 1.64% to 1.62%. the US Dollar Index fell to around 90.6; Gold futures prices turned upward, while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices initially rose before falling, with relatively small volatility.</p><p><b>4. How should we view the Federal Reserve's current \"indecision\"?</b></p><p>Ahead of the April interest rate meeting, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to remain \"on hold,\" but hopes the Fed will give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell called an \"inflection point\"? What is the \"substantial progress\" he often mentions? What is the tolerance limit for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's remarks were still somewhat vague and somewhat \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>Currently, the Federal Reserve's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative,\" or rather, more inclined towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism.</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" was given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators was given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data cannot necessarily be \"linearly extrapolated\".</b>The future trend of the US economy may take two completely different directions: one is that the recovery will be \"blocked\" due to the uncertainty surrounding the current global COVID-19 pandemic and the progress of vaccine rollout; Another possibility is that the recovery is \"too strong,\" which is due to inflationary pressures caused by a variety of factors, including global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, the commodity cycle, and the base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may begin discussing tapering QE at its June or July meeting.</b></p><p>In the coming period, when tracking the Federal Reserve's policy trends, we recommend focusing on observing two sets of data simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Federal Reserve's decision-making framework, the former has a stronger lead and is more conducive to forward-looking judgment. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be put on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%. We calculated,<b>It may take around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of its population.</b></p><p>Given the base effect, the United States is expected to witness a peak in inflation indicators in April and May. This also means that the Federal Reserve will likely need to discuss rising inflation data in June and July. There may be two differences of opinion at that time: one is the \"strength\": is it a normal rebound during the low base effect and economic recovery, or an unhealthy outbreak due to the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus in the early stages? On the other hand, there is the \"duration\". Is it a \"temporary rise\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or will the supply and demand imbalance objectively continue, or (due to \"price stickiness\") may the price adjustment be long-term.<b>If inflation data for April and May is too high, the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin discussing tapering QE in June or July will increase.</b></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The logic behind the Federal Reserve's \"indecision\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe logic behind the Federal Reserve's \"indecision\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve released its April FOMC meeting statement, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave an interview.</i></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy section remains unchanged, in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>2. The April statement was more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) It emphasized the improvement of economic and employment indicators.</b>The March statement described economic and employment indicators as a \"rebound\" after a \"slow recovery,\" while this time it was described as \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support.\" We believe this is related to the significantly better economic data in March than in February.<b>。 2) The statement regarding inflation has been significantly adjusted, which may imply that the year-on-year PCE in March has exceeded 2%.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%,\" but this statement has removed that statement and replaced it with \"rising inflation mainly reflects temporary factors.\" Our benchmarks show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-month PCE growth rate in the United States after March is likely to exceed 2%. 3) The description of economic risks has been weakened.</b>The March statement described the economic outlook as \"considerable,\" while this time it only downplayed the fact that economic risks still exist. This is related to the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and vaccination in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview remarks were generally dovish, but somewhat \"indecisive,\" which the market did not buy into.</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>When asked by a reporter what he meant by \"strengthening\" in the statement, Powell said that firstly, some economic data is very good, and secondly, there is still a significant gap between us and our targets.<b>2) Inflation:</b>When asked by a reporter how to define \"mainly due to temporary factors,\" Powell said that the main factor driving rising inflation is the base effect, but of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. when asked by a reporter if there was a \"red line\" for inflation expectations, Powell said that inflation expectations are inherently volatile, and the key question is not whether (a certain level) can be reached, but when (when).<b>3) Reduce QE:</b>When asked by a reporter whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering its bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some assets are very expensive, and you see some bubbles in the capital market, which is a fact.\"</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a lot to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell mentioned a stock market \"bubble\" in his speech, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower.</b>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48%, the S&P 500 fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28%. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the US Dollar Index also declined.</p><p><b>4. How should we view the Federal Reserve's current \"indecision\"?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, such as whether the US economy has reached the \"inflection point\" that Powell called, what is the \"substantial progress\" he often mentions, and what is the tolerance limit for inflation indicators? However, Powell's remarks remained somewhat vague. We believe that, at this stage,<b>The Federal Reserve's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative,\" or rather, more inclined towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism.</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" was given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators was given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data cannot necessarily be \"linearly extrapolated\".</b>The future trend of the US economy may take two completely different directions: one is that the recovery will be \"blocked\" due to the uncertainty surrounding the current global COVID-19 pandemic and the progress of vaccine rollout; Another possibility is that the recovery is \"too strong,\" which is due to inflationary pressures caused by a variety of factors, including global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, the commodity cycle, and the base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may begin discussing tapering QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be put on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%. We estimate that it may take around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of its population. 2) Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness a peak in inflation indicators in April and May. There may be two differences of opinion at that time: one is the \"strength\": is it a normal rebound during the low base effect and economic recovery, or an unhealthy outbreak due to the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus in the early stages? On the other hand, there is the \"duration\". Is it a \"temporary rise\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or will the supply and demand imbalance objectively continue, or (due to \"price stickiness\") may the price adjustment be long-term. If inflation data for April and May is too high, the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin discussing tapering QE in June or July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy remains unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, the Federal Reserve released its April FOMC meeting statement, which left the monetary policy section \"unchanged,\" in line with market expectations.</b>Compared to March, the monetary policy section of the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement remained unchanged, meaning that the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the pace of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, and continuing to implement repurchase agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its outlook for the U.S. economy, making it more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Chart 2):</p><p><b>1) It emphasized the improvement of economic and employment indicators.</b>The March statement described economic and employment indicators as a \"rebound\" after a \"slow recovery,\" while this time it was described as \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support,\" and emphasized that the situation in relatively vulnerable sectors has also \"shown improvement.\"</p><p><b>2) The statement regarding inflation has been significantly adjusted, which may imply that the year-on-year PCE in March has exceeded 2%.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%,\" but this statement has removed that statement and replaced it with \"rising inflation mainly reflects temporary factors.\" Given that the Federal Reserve generally obtains PCE data in advance, the year-on-year PCE growth rate for March, which is expected to be released on April 30, is likely to have already exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The description of economic risks has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically pointed out that the public health crisis was putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment, and inflation,\" but this time it was only described broadly as putting pressure on the \"economy.\" We believe this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to high levels, and the \"economy\" here mainly refers to two aspects: economic activity and employment. Furthermore, the March statement considered the economic outlook risks \"considerable,\" while this time the adjective was removed, only downplaying the fact that economic risks still exist.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report, \"Thinking About the Fed's Next Steps,\" we pointed out that although it was only a month and a half apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting were significantly different from the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is a significant gap between the US economic data for February and March.</b>Disrupted by extreme cold weather in February, US economic data was sluggish again, while economic data for March and April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm payrolls increased significantly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial jobless claims since April has declined significantly (Chart 4), indicating that the US economic recovery path is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to emerge in March, with US inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) rising significantly in March (Charts 5 and 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculations indicate that the monthly year-on-year PCE growth rate in the United States after March is likely to exceed 2%.</b>The inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index). Based on the Federal Reserve's latest forecast in March (the median year-on-year PCE forecast for the whole of 2021 is 2.4%), we calculate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 will be 0.185%. Using this as a benchmark path for the evolution of PCE inflation, we can predict that the year-on-year PCE growth rate will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to reach peaks, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate. Recent price increases may further push up US inflation. For example, the US CPI in March was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the baseline path, and the market currently predicts that March PCE will increase by 0.3% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the United States is under good control of the epidemic (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to progress (Chart 9). Compared to March, economic risks have indeed decreased at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Powell's remarks appeared somewhat \"indecisive,\" and the market failed to accept them.</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview remarks were generally dovish, but somewhat \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Description of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labor market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. When asked by a reporter what he meant by \"strengthening\" in the statement, Powell said that firstly, some economic data is very good, and secondly, there is still a significant gap between us and our targets.</p><p><b>2) Expression of inflation:</b>We seem unlikely to see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, it is unlikely to see inflation continue to rise. The temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet rate hike standards. When asked by a reporter how to define \"mainly due to temporary factors,\" Powell said that the main factor driving rising inflation is the base effect, but of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. when asked by a reporter if there was a \"red line\" for inflation expectations, Powell said that inflation expectations are inherently volatile, and the key question is not whether (a certain level) can be reached, but when (when).</p><p><b>3) Response to QE reduction:</b>When asked by a reporter whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE), Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases. Economic activity has just rebounded recently, and it will take some time to reach the standard.</p><p><b>4) Regarding financial stability and asset prices.</b>“Some assets are very expensive, and you’re seeing some bubbles in the capital markets, that’s a fact. I wouldn’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a lot to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy.”</p><p><b>5) About digital currencies.</b>A reporter asked if China and other countries are launching digital currencies and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell responded that the Federal Reserve's purpose and impact in promoting digital currencies are different from those of other central banks, requiring extreme caution. \"Correctness is more important than speed.\"</p><p><b>Following the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech, the market \"did not buy it.\"</b>After the Federal Reserve announced its decision and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly. However, after Powell mentioned a stock market \"bubble\" in his speech, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and eventually closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.48%, the S&P 500 down 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.28%. Following Powell's one-hour speech, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 1.64% to 1.62%. the US Dollar Index fell to around 90.6; Gold futures prices turned upward, while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices initially rose before falling, with relatively small volatility.</p><p><b>4. How should we view the Federal Reserve's current \"indecision\"?</b></p><p>Ahead of the April interest rate meeting, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to remain \"on hold,\" but hopes the Fed will give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell called an \"inflection point\"? What is the \"substantial progress\" he often mentions? What is the tolerance limit for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's remarks were still somewhat vague and somewhat \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>Currently, the Federal Reserve's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative,\" or rather, more inclined towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism.</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" was given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators was given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data cannot necessarily be \"linearly extrapolated\".</b>The future trend of the US economy may take two completely different directions: one is that the recovery will be \"blocked\" due to the uncertainty surrounding the current global COVID-19 pandemic and the progress of vaccine rollout; Another possibility is that the recovery is \"too strong,\" which is due to inflationary pressures caused by a variety of factors, including global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, the commodity cycle, and the base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may begin discussing tapering QE at its June or July meeting.</b></p><p>In the coming period, when tracking the Federal Reserve's policy trends, we recommend focusing on observing two sets of data simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Federal Reserve's decision-making framework, the former has a stronger lead and is more conducive to forward-looking judgment. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be put on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%. We calculated,<b>It may take around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of its population.</b></p><p>Given the base effect, the United States is expected to witness a peak in inflation indicators in April and May. This also means that the Federal Reserve will likely need to discuss rising inflation data in June and July. There may be two differences of opinion at that time: one is the \"strength\": is it a normal rebound during the low base effect and economic recovery, or an unhealthy outbreak due to the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus in the early stages? On the other hand, there is the \"duration\". Is it a \"temporary rise\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or will the supply and demand imbalance objectively continue, or (due to \"price stickiness\") may the price adjustment be long-term.<b>If inflation data for April and May is too high, the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin discussing tapering QE in June or July will increase.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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我们的基准测算显示，由于基数效应，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。这与美国疫情防控和疫苗接种效果有关。3、 鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”，市场并不买账。1）经济：有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）通胀：有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能不能达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）削减QE：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering，鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候。4）资产价格：“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，美股三大股指集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%，美元指数亦下行。4、 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？市场期待美联储给出更多明确的态度和信号，例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，鲍威尔的本次发言仍然略显含糊。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5、 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE。建议重点观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。1）圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。2）基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。1 货币政策不变2021年4月28日，美联储公布的4月FOMC会议声明中，货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。与3月相比，2021年4月FOMC会议声明中的货币政策部分“只字未改”，即主要货币政策维持不变，包括：维持法定和超额准备金利率（0.10%），维持联邦基金利率（0-0.25%），维持资产购买节奏（每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS），继续购买CMBS，继续执行回购协议操作等（图表1）。2 对经济前景更加乐观4月声明对美国经济前景的表述有所变化，整体更显乐观。具体有三方面变化（图表2）：1）强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”，而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”（strengthened），且强调了相较脆弱的部门的情况也已经“显示出改善”。2）明显调整有关通胀的表述，或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”，而本次声明删去了这一表述，改为“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”。考虑到美联储一般提前得到PCE数据，预计4月30日将公布的3月PCE同比增速很可能已经超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明具体指出，公共卫生危机对“经济活动、就业和通胀”三个方面造成压力，但本次仅笼统地描述为对“经济”造成压力。我们认为，这主要跟通胀已经恢复高位有关，这里的“经济”主要指代经济活动和就业两个方面。此外，3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次删去了形容词，仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。如何理解上述变化？我们在前期报告《思考美联储的下一步》中指出，虽然仅相隔一个半月，但4月议息会议所处的阶段和背景，与3月会议有显著区别。第一，美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显。2月受极寒天气扰动，美国经济数据再度低迷，而3-4月经济数据普遍乐观，例如3月非农就业大增（图表3），4月以来初请失业金人数显著下降（图表4），表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。第二，3月开始基数效应显现，美国3月通胀指标（CPI和PPI）已经大幅抬头（图表5、图表6）。我们的基准测算显示，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。美联储最为关注的通胀指标是PCE（个人消费支出指数）。根据美联储3月的最新预测（2021年全年PCE同比预测中值为2.4%），我们测算，2021年美国PCE月环比平均为0.185%，以此作为PCE通胀演化的基准路径，可预测今年3月以后PCE同比增速均保持2%以上，其中4月和5月可能迎来高点，分别达到2.75%和2.77%（图表7）。需注意，这仅为保守估计，近期新涨价因素有可能进一步推高美国通胀，例如3月美国CPI同比和环比分别为2.6%和0.6%。因此，即将公布的3月PCE数据很有可能高于基准路径，目前市场预测3月PCE环比增长0.3%。第三，美国疫情控制情况良好（图表8），疫苗接种持续推进（图表9）。相较3月，现阶段经济风险确实已经有所下降。3 鲍威尔发言略显“优柔寡断”，市场未能买账鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”。重点内容包括：1）对经济的表述：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企。有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）对通胀的表述：我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升，且在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，不太可能看到通胀持续上升；今年通胀暂时上升不符合加息的标准。有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能否达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）对削减QE的回复：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering（缩减QE），鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候，经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间。4）关于金融稳定和资产价格。“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”5）关于数字货币。有记者问如中国等正在推出数字货币、美联储是不是落后了。鲍威尔回答，美联储与其他国家央行推行数字货币的目的以及造成的影响是不一样的，需要格外谨慎。“正确比快速更加重要”。美联储决议以及鲍威尔讲话后，市场“并不买账”。美联储公布决议后、鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指小幅上涨；但鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，三大股指短线下跌，最终集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。鲍威尔1小时的讲话后，10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%；美元指数下行至90.6左右；黄金期货价格转涨、WTI和布伦特原油期货价格先涨后跌、波幅较小。4 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？4月议息会议前，市场普遍预计美联储仍然“按兵不动”，但希望美联储给出更为明确的态度和信号。例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，很明显，鲍威尔本次的发言仍然略显含糊，略显“优柔寡断”。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE未来一段时间，对于美联储政策动向的跟踪，我们建议重点应同步观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。疫苗进展与就业市场恢复强相关，虽然后者更加明确出现在美联储决策框架中，但前者的领先性更强、更有助于前瞻性判断。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。这也意味着，6、7月美联储很可能需要就通胀数据的走高进行讨论。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374268973,"gmtCreate":1619449121492,"gmtModify":1704724119329,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374268973","repostId":"1117870906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117870906","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619448210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117870906?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 22:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Dallas Fed's business activity index hit a new high since 2006 in April.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117870906","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"得州工厂活动在4月份强劲增长。","content":"<p>US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index:<b>37.3，</b>This is the highest since January 1, 2006. Expected: 30, Previous: 28.9</p><p>Dallas Fed: Business executives interviewed said Texas factory activity grew strongly in April. A key measure of manufacturing conditions, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing output index fell 14 points to 34.0 in April, still well above average, indicating strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also showed strong economic growth this month, with demand, labor, price, and wage indices all hitting record highs.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Dallas Fed's business activity index hit a new high since 2006 in April.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Dallas Fed's business activity index hit a new high since 2006 in April.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-26 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index:<b>37.3，</b>This is the highest since January 1, 2006. Expected: 30, Previous: 28.9</p><p>Dallas Fed: Business executives interviewed said Texas factory activity grew strongly in April. A key measure of manufacturing conditions, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing output index fell 14 points to 34.0 in April, still well above average, indicating strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also showed strong economic growth this month, with demand, labor, price, and wage indices all hitting record highs.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3943713662845b492791ee924661e81d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117870906","content_text":"美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数：37.3，为2006年1月1日以来新高。预期：30，前值：28.9\n达拉斯联储：受访企业高管表示，得州工厂活动在4月份强劲增长。衡量制造业状况的关键指标，即4月达拉斯联储制造业产出指数下跌14点，至34.0，仍远高于平均水平，表明产出增长强劲。其它衡量制造业活动的指标也显示，本月经济增长强劲，需求、劳动力、价格和工资指数均创下历史新高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":198956083,"gmtCreate":1620920541042,"gmtModify":1704350562955,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198956083","repostId":"1167274875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167274875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620916842,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167274875?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Google announced it had won the contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167274875","media":"智通财经","summary":"显然，这笔交易代表着谷歌在云计算市场的一次胜利。","content":"<p>On Thursday, it was reported that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>It was announced today that its cloud division has won a contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX, Elon Musk's space exploration technology company, to help SpaceX provide internet services through its Starlink satellites.</p><p>According to the cooperation agreement, SpaceX will install a ground station at Google's data center to connect to SpaceX's Starlink satellites, and plans to provide high-speed internet services to enterprises in the second half of this year. Clearly, this deal represents a victory for Google in the cloud computing market. Currently, the cloud computing market is developing rapidly, and Google is striving to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>They are grabbing market share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debeb3f13e3f9c15841bd1543c97f5d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google announced it had won the contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle announced it had won the contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 22:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, it was reported that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>It was announced today that its cloud division has won a contract to provide computing and network resources to SpaceX, Elon Musk's space exploration technology company, to help SpaceX provide internet services through its Starlink satellites.</p><p>According to the cooperation agreement, SpaceX will install a ground station at Google's data center to connect to SpaceX's Starlink satellites, and plans to provide high-speed internet services to enterprises in the second half of this year. Clearly, this deal represents a victory for Google in the cloud computing market. Currently, the cloud computing market is developing rapidly, and Google is striving to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>They are grabbing market share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debeb3f13e3f9c15841bd1543c97f5d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474654.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab2a423ce1c2af9697237b229cede72","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474654.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1167274875","content_text":"周四，据报道，谷歌今日宣布，其云部门已赢得一份合同，向埃隆·马斯克旗下太空探索技术公司SpaceX提供计算和网络资源，以帮助SpaceX通过其“星链”（Starlink）卫星提供互联网服务。根据合作协议，SpaceX将在谷歌数据中心安装地面站，连接SpaceX的“星链”卫星，计划在今年下半年为企业提供快速互联网服务。显然，这笔交易代表着谷歌在云计算市场的一次胜利。当前，云计算市场发展迅速，而谷歌正努力从亚马逊和微软手中抢夺份额。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198958520,"gmtCreate":1620920496760,"gmtModify":1704350562311,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"very good","listText":"very good","text":"very good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198958520","repostId":"1124198478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124198478","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620917329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124198478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Alibaba fell nearly 5% intraday, with its stock price dropping to its lowest level since July last year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124198478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损","content":"<p>Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The stock fell nearly 5% during the session, hitting a low of $209.50, down more than 30% from its peak in October last year. The current stock price is the lowest since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of news, Alibaba today released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2021. The company reported an operating loss of 7.663 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, marking its first quarterly loss since Alibaba's listing. The company stated that the losses were mainly due to fines imposed in antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-time impact, the company's operating profit was RMB 10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>ALIBABA GROUP FOURTH QUARTERLY AND FULL YEAR REPORT 2021</b></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba fell nearly 5% intraday, with its stock price dropping to its lowest level since July last year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba fell nearly 5% intraday, with its stock price dropping to its lowest level since July last year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The stock fell nearly 5% during the session, hitting a low of $209.50, down more than 30% from its peak in October last year. The current stock price is the lowest since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of news, Alibaba today released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2021. The company reported an operating loss of 7.663 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, marking its first quarterly loss since Alibaba's listing. The company stated that the losses were mainly due to fines imposed in antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-time impact, the company's operating profit was RMB 10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>ALIBABA GROUP FOURTH QUARTERLY AND FULL YEAR REPORT 2021</b></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124198478","content_text":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损76.63亿，为阿里上市以来的首次季度亏损。公司称亏损主要受反垄断调查的罚款影响。剔除该一次性影响，公司的经营利润为人民币105.65亿元，同比增长48%。点击查看：阿里巴巴集团2021财年四季度及全年业绩报告","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109275782,"gmtCreate":1619703250546,"gmtModify":1704728283456,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109275782","repostId":"2131309849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2131309849","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619676617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2131309849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 14:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The logic behind the Federal Reserve's \"indecision\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131309849","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"事件：美国时间2021年4月28日，美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明，美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变","content":"<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve released its April FOMC meeting statement, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave an interview.</i></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy section remains unchanged, in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>2. The April statement was more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) It emphasized the improvement of economic and employment indicators.</b>The March statement described economic and employment indicators as a \"rebound\" after a \"slow recovery,\" while this time it was described as \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support.\" We believe this is related to the significantly better economic data in March than in February.<b>。 2) The statement regarding inflation has been significantly adjusted, which may imply that the year-on-year PCE in March has exceeded 2%.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%,\" but this statement has removed that statement and replaced it with \"rising inflation mainly reflects temporary factors.\" Our benchmarks show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-month PCE growth rate in the United States after March is likely to exceed 2%. 3) The description of economic risks has been weakened.</b>The March statement described the economic outlook as \"considerable,\" while this time it only downplayed the fact that economic risks still exist. This is related to the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and vaccination in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview remarks were generally dovish, but somewhat \"indecisive,\" which the market did not buy into.</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>When asked by a reporter what he meant by \"strengthening\" in the statement, Powell said that firstly, some economic data is very good, and secondly, there is still a significant gap between us and our targets.<b>2) Inflation:</b>When asked by a reporter how to define \"mainly due to temporary factors,\" Powell said that the main factor driving rising inflation is the base effect, but of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. when asked by a reporter if there was a \"red line\" for inflation expectations, Powell said that inflation expectations are inherently volatile, and the key question is not whether (a certain level) can be reached, but when (when).<b>3) Reduce QE:</b>When asked by a reporter whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering its bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some assets are very expensive, and you see some bubbles in the capital market, which is a fact.\"</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a lot to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell mentioned a stock market \"bubble\" in his speech, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower.</b>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48%, the S&P 500 fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28%. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the US Dollar Index also declined.</p><p><b>4. How should we view the Federal Reserve's current \"indecision\"?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, such as whether the US economy has reached the \"inflection point\" that Powell called, what is the \"substantial progress\" he often mentions, and what is the tolerance limit for inflation indicators? However, Powell's remarks remained somewhat vague. We believe that, at this stage,<b>The Federal Reserve's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative,\" or rather, more inclined towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism.</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" was given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators was given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data cannot necessarily be \"linearly extrapolated\".</b>The future trend of the US economy may take two completely different directions: one is that the recovery will be \"blocked\" due to the uncertainty surrounding the current global COVID-19 pandemic and the progress of vaccine rollout; Another possibility is that the recovery is \"too strong,\" which is due to inflationary pressures caused by a variety of factors, including global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, the commodity cycle, and the base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may begin discussing tapering QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be put on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%. We estimate that it may take around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of its population. 2) Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness a peak in inflation indicators in April and May. There may be two differences of opinion at that time: one is the \"strength\": is it a normal rebound during the low base effect and economic recovery, or an unhealthy outbreak due to the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus in the early stages? On the other hand, there is the \"duration\". Is it a \"temporary rise\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or will the supply and demand imbalance objectively continue, or (due to \"price stickiness\") may the price adjustment be long-term. If inflation data for April and May is too high, the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin discussing tapering QE in June or July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy remains unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, the Federal Reserve released its April FOMC meeting statement, which left the monetary policy section \"unchanged,\" in line with market expectations.</b>Compared to March, the monetary policy section of the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement remained unchanged, meaning that the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the pace of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, and continuing to implement repurchase agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its outlook for the U.S. economy, making it more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Chart 2):</p><p><b>1) It emphasized the improvement of economic and employment indicators.</b>The March statement described economic and employment indicators as a \"rebound\" after a \"slow recovery,\" while this time it was described as \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support,\" and emphasized that the situation in relatively vulnerable sectors has also \"shown improvement.\"</p><p><b>2) The statement regarding inflation has been significantly adjusted, which may imply that the year-on-year PCE in March has exceeded 2%.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%,\" but this statement has removed that statement and replaced it with \"rising inflation mainly reflects temporary factors.\" Given that the Federal Reserve generally obtains PCE data in advance, the year-on-year PCE growth rate for March, which is expected to be released on April 30, is likely to have already exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The description of economic risks has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically pointed out that the public health crisis was putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment, and inflation,\" but this time it was only described broadly as putting pressure on the \"economy.\" We believe this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to high levels, and the \"economy\" here mainly refers to two aspects: economic activity and employment. Furthermore, the March statement considered the economic outlook risks \"considerable,\" while this time the adjective was removed, only downplaying the fact that economic risks still exist.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report, \"Thinking About the Fed's Next Steps,\" we pointed out that although it was only a month and a half apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting were significantly different from the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is a significant gap between the US economic data for February and March.</b>Disrupted by extreme cold weather in February, US economic data was sluggish again, while economic data for March and April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm payrolls increased significantly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial jobless claims since April has declined significantly (Chart 4), indicating that the US economic recovery path is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to emerge in March, with US inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) rising significantly in March (Charts 5 and 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculations indicate that the monthly year-on-year PCE growth rate in the United States after March is likely to exceed 2%.</b>The inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index). Based on the Federal Reserve's latest forecast in March (the median year-on-year PCE forecast for the whole of 2021 is 2.4%), we calculate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 will be 0.185%. Using this as a benchmark path for the evolution of PCE inflation, we can predict that the year-on-year PCE growth rate will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to reach peaks, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate. Recent price increases may further push up US inflation. For example, the US CPI in March was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the baseline path, and the market currently predicts that March PCE will increase by 0.3% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the United States is under good control of the epidemic (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to progress (Chart 9). Compared to March, economic risks have indeed decreased at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Powell's remarks appeared somewhat \"indecisive,\" and the market failed to accept them.</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview remarks were generally dovish, but somewhat \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Description of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labor market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. When asked by a reporter what he meant by \"strengthening\" in the statement, Powell said that firstly, some economic data is very good, and secondly, there is still a significant gap between us and our targets.</p><p><b>2) Expression of inflation:</b>We seem unlikely to see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, it is unlikely to see inflation continue to rise. The temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet rate hike standards. When asked by a reporter how to define \"mainly due to temporary factors,\" Powell said that the main factor driving rising inflation is the base effect, but of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. when asked by a reporter if there was a \"red line\" for inflation expectations, Powell said that inflation expectations are inherently volatile, and the key question is not whether (a certain level) can be reached, but when (when).</p><p><b>3) Response to QE reduction:</b>When asked by a reporter whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE), Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases. Economic activity has just rebounded recently, and it will take some time to reach the standard.</p><p><b>4) Regarding financial stability and asset prices.</b>“Some assets are very expensive, and you’re seeing some bubbles in the capital markets, that’s a fact. I wouldn’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a lot to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy.”</p><p><b>5) About digital currencies.</b>A reporter asked if China and other countries are launching digital currencies and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell responded that the Federal Reserve's purpose and impact in promoting digital currencies are different from those of other central banks, requiring extreme caution. \"Correctness is more important than speed.\"</p><p><b>Following the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech, the market \"did not buy it.\"</b>After the Federal Reserve announced its decision and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly. However, after Powell mentioned a stock market \"bubble\" in his speech, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and eventually closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.48%, the S&P 500 down 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.28%. Following Powell's one-hour speech, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 1.64% to 1.62%. the US Dollar Index fell to around 90.6; Gold futures prices turned upward, while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices initially rose before falling, with relatively small volatility.</p><p><b>4. How should we view the Federal Reserve's current \"indecision\"?</b></p><p>Ahead of the April interest rate meeting, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to remain \"on hold,\" but hopes the Fed will give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell called an \"inflection point\"? What is the \"substantial progress\" he often mentions? What is the tolerance limit for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's remarks were still somewhat vague and somewhat \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>Currently, the Federal Reserve's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative,\" or rather, more inclined towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism.</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" was given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators was given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data cannot necessarily be \"linearly extrapolated\".</b>The future trend of the US economy may take two completely different directions: one is that the recovery will be \"blocked\" due to the uncertainty surrounding the current global COVID-19 pandemic and the progress of vaccine rollout; Another possibility is that the recovery is \"too strong,\" which is due to inflationary pressures caused by a variety of factors, including global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, the commodity cycle, and the base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may begin discussing tapering QE at its June or July meeting.</b></p><p>In the coming period, when tracking the Federal Reserve's policy trends, we recommend focusing on observing two sets of data simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Federal Reserve's decision-making framework, the former has a stronger lead and is more conducive to forward-looking judgment. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be put on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%. We calculated,<b>It may take around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of its population.</b></p><p>Given the base effect, the United States is expected to witness a peak in inflation indicators in April and May. This also means that the Federal Reserve will likely need to discuss rising inflation data in June and July. There may be two differences of opinion at that time: one is the \"strength\": is it a normal rebound during the low base effect and economic recovery, or an unhealthy outbreak due to the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus in the early stages? On the other hand, there is the \"duration\". Is it a \"temporary rise\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or will the supply and demand imbalance objectively continue, or (due to \"price stickiness\") may the price adjustment be long-term.<b>If inflation data for April and May is too high, the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin discussing tapering QE in June or July will increase.</b></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The logic behind the Federal Reserve's \"indecision\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe logic behind the Federal Reserve's \"indecision\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve released its April FOMC meeting statement, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave an interview.</i></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy section remains unchanged, in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>2. The April statement was more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) It emphasized the improvement of economic and employment indicators.</b>The March statement described economic and employment indicators as a \"rebound\" after a \"slow recovery,\" while this time it was described as \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support.\" We believe this is related to the significantly better economic data in March than in February.<b>。 2) The statement regarding inflation has been significantly adjusted, which may imply that the year-on-year PCE in March has exceeded 2%.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%,\" but this statement has removed that statement and replaced it with \"rising inflation mainly reflects temporary factors.\" Our benchmarks show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-month PCE growth rate in the United States after March is likely to exceed 2%. 3) The description of economic risks has been weakened.</b>The March statement described the economic outlook as \"considerable,\" while this time it only downplayed the fact that economic risks still exist. This is related to the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and vaccination in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview remarks were generally dovish, but somewhat \"indecisive,\" which the market did not buy into.</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>When asked by a reporter what he meant by \"strengthening\" in the statement, Powell said that firstly, some economic data is very good, and secondly, there is still a significant gap between us and our targets.<b>2) Inflation:</b>When asked by a reporter how to define \"mainly due to temporary factors,\" Powell said that the main factor driving rising inflation is the base effect, but of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. when asked by a reporter if there was a \"red line\" for inflation expectations, Powell said that inflation expectations are inherently volatile, and the key question is not whether (a certain level) can be reached, but when (when).<b>3) Reduce QE:</b>When asked by a reporter whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering its bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some assets are very expensive, and you see some bubbles in the capital market, which is a fact.\"</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a lot to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell mentioned a stock market \"bubble\" in his speech, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower.</b>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48%, the S&P 500 fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28%. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the US Dollar Index also declined.</p><p><b>4. How should we view the Federal Reserve's current \"indecision\"?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, such as whether the US economy has reached the \"inflection point\" that Powell called, what is the \"substantial progress\" he often mentions, and what is the tolerance limit for inflation indicators? However, Powell's remarks remained somewhat vague. We believe that, at this stage,<b>The Federal Reserve's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative,\" or rather, more inclined towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism.</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" was given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators was given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data cannot necessarily be \"linearly extrapolated\".</b>The future trend of the US economy may take two completely different directions: one is that the recovery will be \"blocked\" due to the uncertainty surrounding the current global COVID-19 pandemic and the progress of vaccine rollout; Another possibility is that the recovery is \"too strong,\" which is due to inflationary pressures caused by a variety of factors, including global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, the commodity cycle, and the base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may begin discussing tapering QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be put on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%. We estimate that it may take around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of its population. 2) Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness a peak in inflation indicators in April and May. There may be two differences of opinion at that time: one is the \"strength\": is it a normal rebound during the low base effect and economic recovery, or an unhealthy outbreak due to the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus in the early stages? On the other hand, there is the \"duration\". Is it a \"temporary rise\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or will the supply and demand imbalance objectively continue, or (due to \"price stickiness\") may the price adjustment be long-term. If inflation data for April and May is too high, the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin discussing tapering QE in June or July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy remains unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, the Federal Reserve released its April FOMC meeting statement, which left the monetary policy section \"unchanged,\" in line with market expectations.</b>Compared to March, the monetary policy section of the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement remained unchanged, meaning that the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the pace of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, and continuing to implement repurchase agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its outlook for the U.S. economy, making it more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Chart 2):</p><p><b>1) It emphasized the improvement of economic and employment indicators.</b>The March statement described economic and employment indicators as a \"rebound\" after a \"slow recovery,\" while this time it was described as \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support,\" and emphasized that the situation in relatively vulnerable sectors has also \"shown improvement.\"</p><p><b>2) The statement regarding inflation has been significantly adjusted, which may imply that the year-on-year PCE in March has exceeded 2%.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to remain below 2%,\" but this statement has removed that statement and replaced it with \"rising inflation mainly reflects temporary factors.\" Given that the Federal Reserve generally obtains PCE data in advance, the year-on-year PCE growth rate for March, which is expected to be released on April 30, is likely to have already exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The description of economic risks has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically pointed out that the public health crisis was putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment, and inflation,\" but this time it was only described broadly as putting pressure on the \"economy.\" We believe this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to high levels, and the \"economy\" here mainly refers to two aspects: economic activity and employment. Furthermore, the March statement considered the economic outlook risks \"considerable,\" while this time the adjective was removed, only downplaying the fact that economic risks still exist.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report, \"Thinking About the Fed's Next Steps,\" we pointed out that although it was only a month and a half apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting were significantly different from the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is a significant gap between the US economic data for February and March.</b>Disrupted by extreme cold weather in February, US economic data was sluggish again, while economic data for March and April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm payrolls increased significantly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial jobless claims since April has declined significantly (Chart 4), indicating that the US economic recovery path is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to emerge in March, with US inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) rising significantly in March (Charts 5 and 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculations indicate that the monthly year-on-year PCE growth rate in the United States after March is likely to exceed 2%.</b>The inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index). Based on the Federal Reserve's latest forecast in March (the median year-on-year PCE forecast for the whole of 2021 is 2.4%), we calculate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 will be 0.185%. Using this as a benchmark path for the evolution of PCE inflation, we can predict that the year-on-year PCE growth rate will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to reach peaks, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate. Recent price increases may further push up US inflation. For example, the US CPI in March was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the baseline path, and the market currently predicts that March PCE will increase by 0.3% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the United States is under good control of the epidemic (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to progress (Chart 9). Compared to March, economic risks have indeed decreased at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Powell's remarks appeared somewhat \"indecisive,\" and the market failed to accept them.</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview remarks were generally dovish, but somewhat \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Description of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labor market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. When asked by a reporter what he meant by \"strengthening\" in the statement, Powell said that firstly, some economic data is very good, and secondly, there is still a significant gap between us and our targets.</p><p><b>2) Expression of inflation:</b>We seem unlikely to see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, it is unlikely to see inflation continue to rise. The temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet rate hike standards. When asked by a reporter how to define \"mainly due to temporary factors,\" Powell said that the main factor driving rising inflation is the base effect, but of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. when asked by a reporter if there was a \"red line\" for inflation expectations, Powell said that inflation expectations are inherently volatile, and the key question is not whether (a certain level) can be reached, but when (when).</p><p><b>3) Response to QE reduction:</b>When asked by a reporter whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE), Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases. Economic activity has just rebounded recently, and it will take some time to reach the standard.</p><p><b>4) Regarding financial stability and asset prices.</b>“Some assets are very expensive, and you’re seeing some bubbles in the capital markets, that’s a fact. I wouldn’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a lot to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy.”</p><p><b>5) About digital currencies.</b>A reporter asked if China and other countries are launching digital currencies and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell responded that the Federal Reserve's purpose and impact in promoting digital currencies are different from those of other central banks, requiring extreme caution. \"Correctness is more important than speed.\"</p><p><b>Following the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech, the market \"did not buy it.\"</b>After the Federal Reserve announced its decision and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly. However, after Powell mentioned a stock market \"bubble\" in his speech, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term and eventually closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.48%, the S&P 500 down 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.28%. Following Powell's one-hour speech, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 1.64% to 1.62%. the US Dollar Index fell to around 90.6; Gold futures prices turned upward, while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices initially rose before falling, with relatively small volatility.</p><p><b>4. How should we view the Federal Reserve's current \"indecision\"?</b></p><p>Ahead of the April interest rate meeting, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to remain \"on hold,\" but hopes the Fed will give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell called an \"inflection point\"? What is the \"substantial progress\" he often mentions? What is the tolerance limit for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's remarks were still somewhat vague and somewhat \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>Currently, the Federal Reserve's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative,\" or rather, more inclined towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism.</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" was given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators was given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data cannot necessarily be \"linearly extrapolated\".</b>The future trend of the US economy may take two completely different directions: one is that the recovery will be \"blocked\" due to the uncertainty surrounding the current global COVID-19 pandemic and the progress of vaccine rollout; Another possibility is that the recovery is \"too strong,\" which is due to inflationary pressures caused by a variety of factors, including global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, the commodity cycle, and the base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may begin discussing tapering QE at its June or July meeting.</b></p><p>In the coming period, when tracking the Federal Reserve's policy trends, we recommend focusing on observing two sets of data simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Federal Reserve's decision-making framework, the former has a stronger lead and is more conducive to forward-looking judgment. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be put on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%. We calculated,<b>It may take around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of its population.</b></p><p>Given the base effect, the United States is expected to witness a peak in inflation indicators in April and May. This also means that the Federal Reserve will likely need to discuss rising inflation data in June and July. There may be two differences of opinion at that time: one is the \"strength\": is it a normal rebound during the low base effect and economic recovery, or an unhealthy outbreak due to the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus in the early stages? On the other hand, there is the \"duration\". Is it a \"temporary rise\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or will the supply and demand imbalance objectively continue, or (due to \"price stickiness\") may the price adjustment be long-term.<b>If inflation data for April and May is too high, the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin discussing tapering QE in June or July will increase.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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我们的基准测算显示，由于基数效应，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。这与美国疫情防控和疫苗接种效果有关。3、 鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”，市场并不买账。1）经济：有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）通胀：有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能不能达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）削减QE：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering，鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候。4）资产价格：“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，美股三大股指集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%，美元指数亦下行。4、 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？市场期待美联储给出更多明确的态度和信号，例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，鲍威尔的本次发言仍然略显含糊。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5、 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE。建议重点观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。1）圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。2）基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。1 货币政策不变2021年4月28日，美联储公布的4月FOMC会议声明中，货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。与3月相比，2021年4月FOMC会议声明中的货币政策部分“只字未改”，即主要货币政策维持不变，包括：维持法定和超额准备金利率（0.10%），维持联邦基金利率（0-0.25%），维持资产购买节奏（每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS），继续购买CMBS，继续执行回购协议操作等（图表1）。2 对经济前景更加乐观4月声明对美国经济前景的表述有所变化，整体更显乐观。具体有三方面变化（图表2）：1）强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”，而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”（strengthened），且强调了相较脆弱的部门的情况也已经“显示出改善”。2）明显调整有关通胀的表述，或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”，而本次声明删去了这一表述，改为“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”。考虑到美联储一般提前得到PCE数据，预计4月30日将公布的3月PCE同比增速很可能已经超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明具体指出，公共卫生危机对“经济活动、就业和通胀”三个方面造成压力，但本次仅笼统地描述为对“经济”造成压力。我们认为，这主要跟通胀已经恢复高位有关，这里的“经济”主要指代经济活动和就业两个方面。此外，3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次删去了形容词，仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。如何理解上述变化？我们在前期报告《思考美联储的下一步》中指出，虽然仅相隔一个半月，但4月议息会议所处的阶段和背景，与3月会议有显著区别。第一，美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显。2月受极寒天气扰动，美国经济数据再度低迷，而3-4月经济数据普遍乐观，例如3月非农就业大增（图表3），4月以来初请失业金人数显著下降（图表4），表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。第二，3月开始基数效应显现，美国3月通胀指标（CPI和PPI）已经大幅抬头（图表5、图表6）。我们的基准测算显示，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。美联储最为关注的通胀指标是PCE（个人消费支出指数）。根据美联储3月的最新预测（2021年全年PCE同比预测中值为2.4%），我们测算，2021年美国PCE月环比平均为0.185%，以此作为PCE通胀演化的基准路径，可预测今年3月以后PCE同比增速均保持2%以上，其中4月和5月可能迎来高点，分别达到2.75%和2.77%（图表7）。需注意，这仅为保守估计，近期新涨价因素有可能进一步推高美国通胀，例如3月美国CPI同比和环比分别为2.6%和0.6%。因此，即将公布的3月PCE数据很有可能高于基准路径，目前市场预测3月PCE环比增长0.3%。第三，美国疫情控制情况良好（图表8），疫苗接种持续推进（图表9）。相较3月，现阶段经济风险确实已经有所下降。3 鲍威尔发言略显“优柔寡断”，市场未能买账鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”。重点内容包括：1）对经济的表述：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企。有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）对通胀的表述：我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升，且在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，不太可能看到通胀持续上升；今年通胀暂时上升不符合加息的标准。有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能否达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）对削减QE的回复：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering（缩减QE），鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候，经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间。4）关于金融稳定和资产价格。“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”5）关于数字货币。有记者问如中国等正在推出数字货币、美联储是不是落后了。鲍威尔回答，美联储与其他国家央行推行数字货币的目的以及造成的影响是不一样的，需要格外谨慎。“正确比快速更加重要”。美联储决议以及鲍威尔讲话后，市场“并不买账”。美联储公布决议后、鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指小幅上涨；但鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，三大股指短线下跌，最终集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。鲍威尔1小时的讲话后，10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%；美元指数下行至90.6左右；黄金期货价格转涨、WTI和布伦特原油期货价格先涨后跌、波幅较小。4 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？4月议息会议前，市场普遍预计美联储仍然“按兵不动”，但希望美联储给出更为明确的态度和信号。例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，很明显，鲍威尔本次的发言仍然略显含糊，略显“优柔寡断”。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE未来一段时间，对于美联储政策动向的跟踪，我们建议重点应同步观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。疫苗进展与就业市场恢复强相关，虽然后者更加明确出现在美联储决策框架中，但前者的领先性更强、更有助于前瞻性判断。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。这也意味着，6、7月美联储很可能需要就通胀数据的走高进行讨论。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198955855,"gmtCreate":1620920620877,"gmtModify":1704350566201,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198955855","repostId":"2135621359","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135621359","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620912742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135621359?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 21:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Muddy Waters shorted Lemonade: It has a serious security vulnerability and should be taken offline immediately.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135621359","media":"智通财经","summary":"可能会暴露客户个人身份信息，要求公司立即让网站下线，修复漏洞。","content":"<p>On Thursday, May 13, Muddy Waters claimed that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">Lemonade</a>The website has a serious security vulnerability that may expose customers' personally identifiable information (PII). The company is required to immediately take the website offline and fix the vulnerability. Affected by this news, Lemonade's stock price fell by more than 7% in pre-market trading before gradually recovering. As of press time, Lemonade was up 0.68% at $60.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98446c1f3c305e0b0e624ee8263a4356\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is understood that Muddy Waters is not The first short seller to target Lemonade; The Friendly Bear also shorted The company at The end of last year.</p><p>Several investment banks downgraded their ratings on internet insurance company Lemonade after its first-quarter loss per share exceeded market expectations. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Andrew Kligerman pointed out that unexpected losses caused by the Texas storm were the main reason for the stock's losses. Financial reports show that the 121% gross loss rate in the first quarter included 50% of the impact of catastrophic events. Although the adjusted EBITDA loss of $41 million was in line with the bank's expectations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>We still give Lemonade an \"underperforming\" rating.</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Muddy Waters shorted Lemonade: It has a serious security vulnerability and should be taken offline immediately.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMuddy Waters shorted Lemonade: It has a serious security vulnerability and should be taken offline immediately.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 21:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, May 13, Muddy Waters claimed that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">Lemonade</a>The website has a serious security vulnerability that may expose customers' personally identifiable information (PII). The company is required to immediately take the website offline and fix the vulnerability. Affected by this news, Lemonade's stock price fell by more than 7% in pre-market trading before gradually recovering. As of press time, Lemonade was up 0.68% at $60.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98446c1f3c305e0b0e624ee8263a4356\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is understood that Muddy Waters is not The first short seller to target Lemonade; The Friendly Bear also shorted The company at The end of last year.</p><p>Several investment banks downgraded their ratings on internet insurance company Lemonade after its first-quarter loss per share exceeded market expectations. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Andrew Kligerman pointed out that unexpected losses caused by the Texas storm were the main reason for the stock's losses. Financial reports show that the 121% gross loss rate in the first quarter included 50% of the impact of catastrophic events. Although the adjusted EBITDA loss of $41 million was in line with the bank's expectations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>We still give Lemonade an \"underperforming\" rating.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474595.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a485199ba4d98518695cb468836114","relate_stocks":{"LMND":"Lemonade, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474595.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135621359","content_text":"5月13日(周四)，浑水公司(Muddy  Waters)声称，Lemonade网站存在严重安全漏洞，可能会暴露客户个人身份信息(PII)，要求公司立即让网站下线，修复漏洞。受此消息影响，Lemonade盘前股价一度跌逾7%，后逐步回暖，盘初截至发稿，Lemonade涨0.68%，报60.57美元。据了解，浑水并不是第一家瞄准Lemonade的做空者，去年年底，The Friendly Bear也做空该公司。受第一季度每股亏损大于市场预期的影响，多家投行降低了对互联网保险公司Lemonade的评级。其中瑞银分析师Andrew  Kligerman指出，德州风暴造成的超预期的损失是该股亏损的主要原因。财报显示，第一季度121%的毛损率中包含50%的巨灾影响。虽然调整后的EBITDA亏损4100万美元符合该行预期，但瑞银还是给予Lemonade“跑输大市”评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LMND":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198952670,"gmtCreate":1620920597790,"gmtModify":1704350564738,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198952670","repostId":"1129245857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129245857","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620913695,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129245857?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 21:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"May may be a turning point for the entire market: the Federal Reserve's \"natural enemy\" has arrived!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129245857","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"通胀爆了，就业萎靡……这叫啥来着？","content":"<p>Author: Le Ming</p><p><b>primer</b></p><p>At the recent Federal Reserve \"stood up\" meeting, Powell was asked two awkward questions: Inflation expectations seem to be rising sharply now, what would you do if inflation reached the target before employment? Why are you so confident that inflation won't get out of control this time? It won't be like the 1970s?</p><p>Powell was not very happy about either of these questions, because they hit an awkward pain point.</p><p>Now the pain points are beginning to appear in the data: at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, May 12, the U.S. Department of Labor released the U.S. April CPI. Data shows that not only the overall CPI in the United States but also the core CPI saw astonishing record growth in April. In April, the US overall CPI surged 4.2% year-on-year (compared to market expectations of 3.6%), marking the highest growth rate since September 2008; The core CPI rose 3% year-on-year in April, the largest increase since January 1996.</p><p>Inflation approaching 5% is not something that long-term average inflation of 2% can tolerate unless it falls next month, which would be a \"false alarm.\" However, the possibility of a significant decline next month currently seems unlikely.</p><p>The market also conveyed this expectation through prices: the probability of an interest rate hike in 2022 has reached 100% after the data was released. This, in turn, means that the timing of QE tapering, which was just postponed because employment data fell significantly short of expectations, has been brought forward again.</p><p>This feeling of being pulled from side to side and not knowing what to do seems a bit familiar, and it's also the scenario the Federal Reserve fears most: inflation explodes, employment is sluggish... What's that called again?</p><p><b>The market is starting to distrust the Federal Reserve's rhetoric.</b></p><p>Even before today's data release, the market had already expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve's claim that long-term inflation would remain at 2%.</p><p>The April consumer survey (equivalent to the Federal Reserve's \"poll\") released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that as the economy recovers from the crisis caused by the pandemic, the median expectation for U.S. consumer inflation over the next year is 3.4%, the highest level since September 2013. Inflation expectations for the next three years remain unchanged at 3.1%.</p><p>The reason the Federal Reserve cares so much about inflation \"polls\" is that the most dangerous thing about inflation is that it spirals upwards after a \"public consensus\" is formed.</p><p>Inflation expectations can be roughly divided into three levels: 1. Inflation expectations implicit in financial products in the market; 2. The so-called \"consensus\" inflation forecast by economists (these two layers are basically consistent with the Federal Reserve's forecast). 3. The public's real inflation expectations.</p><p>The third level determines the characteristics of self-realization of inflation. If a period of relatively high inflation (likely above 2%) leads American workers to believe that the cost of living has increased and that wages need to be raised; If manufacturers believe they need to raise prices to cope with higher wages and various costs, then it is not impossible that inflation will eventually rise from 2%+ to 5%, or even 10%+ in the 1970s.</p><p>In fact, the last time the US CPI reached 4.2%, the Federal Reserve's interest rate was as high as 20%—during the stagflation period of the 1970s.</p><p><b>Stagflation!?</b></p><p>Stagflation is the Federal Reserve's most feared \"natural enemy\"—when stagflation occurs, the Fed's policies lose the initiative and enter a completely passive state. In this situation, while the Federal Reserve tightens policy to control inflation, the economy cannot withstand it. However, if policies are relaxed to save the economy, inflation will skyrocket—left and right are not human, and there is no solution; We can only endure it and let time digest it slowly, just like in the 1970s.</p><p>Although the month's data theoretically only exacerbated market concerns and did not cause panic—after all, the United States was indeed in a state of deflation in April last year, and the base effect mentioned by the Federal Reserve did exist.</p><p>Chart: Severe deflation in the United States last April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c80e9218155a4a7d34e31254600a07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the May data can fall back to around 3%, which is acceptable to the market, then inflation expectations can still be \"saved\"; However, if it remains around 4% next month, the Federal Reserve may need to quickly adopt a hawkish stance to control inflation expectations.</p><p>In addition, although the April non-farm payroll data was very unsatisfactory (17.5199, -0.26, -1.46%), a significant improvement is expected in May. For details, see: Biden's \"awakening\"! Can American employment exceed one million in May?.</p><p><b>What does it mean?</b></p><p>Although this data is shocking, it is still a \"one-off\" data - it is very normal for market probabilities to be adjusted according to the latest situation. A 100% rate hike probability does not mean that it will definitely happen, because there is still a long time until the end of 2022, and many data points will change the probability again in the meantime.</p><p>Nevertheless, this will still make the May data a \"decisive point\".</p><p>First, the US economy had already escaped deflation last May, and its inflation readings were not much different from those for the rest of 2020. If inflation reaches around 4% again in May, it can no longer be said to be a base issue. At this point, the Federal Reserve needs to \"make a statement,\" otherwise inflation is very likely to enter a \"self-fulfilling\" channel.</p><p>Furthermore, it doesn't matter whether employment in May is good or bad: good employment indicates greater inflationary pressure. It's hard to say that stagflation is getting closer—it's bad news for the market in any case. This is why the Federal Reserve is now repeatedly emphasizing that employment now needs to be monitored by the labor force participation rate, because not only is the unemployment rate data \"out of order,\" but even the non-farm payroll data is no longer very effective.</p><p>May could be a turning point for the entire market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>May may be a turning point for the entire market: the Federal Reserve's \"natural enemy\" has arrived!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMay may be a turning point for the entire market: the Federal Reserve's \"natural enemy\" has arrived!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 21:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Le Ming</p><p><b>primer</b></p><p>At the recent Federal Reserve \"stood up\" meeting, Powell was asked two awkward questions: Inflation expectations seem to be rising sharply now, what would you do if inflation reached the target before employment? Why are you so confident that inflation won't get out of control this time? It won't be like the 1970s?</p><p>Powell was not very happy about either of these questions, because they hit an awkward pain point.</p><p>Now the pain points are beginning to appear in the data: at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, May 12, the U.S. Department of Labor released the U.S. April CPI. Data shows that not only the overall CPI in the United States but also the core CPI saw astonishing record growth in April. In April, the US overall CPI surged 4.2% year-on-year (compared to market expectations of 3.6%), marking the highest growth rate since September 2008; The core CPI rose 3% year-on-year in April, the largest increase since January 1996.</p><p>Inflation approaching 5% is not something that long-term average inflation of 2% can tolerate unless it falls next month, which would be a \"false alarm.\" However, the possibility of a significant decline next month currently seems unlikely.</p><p>The market also conveyed this expectation through prices: the probability of an interest rate hike in 2022 has reached 100% after the data was released. This, in turn, means that the timing of QE tapering, which was just postponed because employment data fell significantly short of expectations, has been brought forward again.</p><p>This feeling of being pulled from side to side and not knowing what to do seems a bit familiar, and it's also the scenario the Federal Reserve fears most: inflation explodes, employment is sluggish... What's that called again?</p><p><b>The market is starting to distrust the Federal Reserve's rhetoric.</b></p><p>Even before today's data release, the market had already expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve's claim that long-term inflation would remain at 2%.</p><p>The April consumer survey (equivalent to the Federal Reserve's \"poll\") released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that as the economy recovers from the crisis caused by the pandemic, the median expectation for U.S. consumer inflation over the next year is 3.4%, the highest level since September 2013. Inflation expectations for the next three years remain unchanged at 3.1%.</p><p>The reason the Federal Reserve cares so much about inflation \"polls\" is that the most dangerous thing about inflation is that it spirals upwards after a \"public consensus\" is formed.</p><p>Inflation expectations can be roughly divided into three levels: 1. Inflation expectations implicit in financial products in the market; 2. The so-called \"consensus\" inflation forecast by economists (these two layers are basically consistent with the Federal Reserve's forecast). 3. The public's real inflation expectations.</p><p>The third level determines the characteristics of self-realization of inflation. If a period of relatively high inflation (likely above 2%) leads American workers to believe that the cost of living has increased and that wages need to be raised; If manufacturers believe they need to raise prices to cope with higher wages and various costs, then it is not impossible that inflation will eventually rise from 2%+ to 5%, or even 10%+ in the 1970s.</p><p>In fact, the last time the US CPI reached 4.2%, the Federal Reserve's interest rate was as high as 20%—during the stagflation period of the 1970s.</p><p><b>Stagflation!?</b></p><p>Stagflation is the Federal Reserve's most feared \"natural enemy\"—when stagflation occurs, the Fed's policies lose the initiative and enter a completely passive state. In this situation, while the Federal Reserve tightens policy to control inflation, the economy cannot withstand it. However, if policies are relaxed to save the economy, inflation will skyrocket—left and right are not human, and there is no solution; We can only endure it and let time digest it slowly, just like in the 1970s.</p><p>Although the month's data theoretically only exacerbated market concerns and did not cause panic—after all, the United States was indeed in a state of deflation in April last year, and the base effect mentioned by the Federal Reserve did exist.</p><p>Chart: Severe deflation in the United States last April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c80e9218155a4a7d34e31254600a07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the May data can fall back to around 3%, which is acceptable to the market, then inflation expectations can still be \"saved\"; However, if it remains around 4% next month, the Federal Reserve may need to quickly adopt a hawkish stance to control inflation expectations.</p><p>In addition, although the April non-farm payroll data was very unsatisfactory (17.5199, -0.26, -1.46%), a significant improvement is expected in May. For details, see: Biden's \"awakening\"! Can American employment exceed one million in May?.</p><p><b>What does it mean?</b></p><p>Although this data is shocking, it is still a \"one-off\" data - it is very normal for market probabilities to be adjusted according to the latest situation. A 100% rate hike probability does not mean that it will definitely happen, because there is still a long time until the end of 2022, and many data points will change the probability again in the meantime.</p><p>Nevertheless, this will still make the May data a \"decisive point\".</p><p>First, the US economy had already escaped deflation last May, and its inflation readings were not much different from those for the rest of 2020. If inflation reaches around 4% again in May, it can no longer be said to be a base issue. At this point, the Federal Reserve needs to \"make a statement,\" otherwise inflation is very likely to enter a \"self-fulfilling\" channel.</p><p>Furthermore, it doesn't matter whether employment in May is good or bad: good employment indicates greater inflationary pressure. It's hard to say that stagflation is getting closer—it's bad news for the market in any case. This is why the Federal Reserve is now repeatedly emphasizing that employment now needs to be monitored by the labor force participation rate, because not only is the unemployment rate data \"out of order,\" but even the non-farm payroll data is no longer very effective.</p><p>May could be a turning point for the entire market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129245857","content_text":"作者：乐鸣引子在刚过去不久的美联储“放鸽子”会上，鲍威尔被问到两个尴尬的问题：现在通胀预期看起来上得很猛，万一通胀比就业先达标了，你咋办？你咋那么有信心这次通胀不会失控？不会像上世纪70年代一样？对于这两个问题，鲍威尔都不太高兴，因为问到了尴尬的痛点。如今痛点开始在数据上显现：5月12日周三晚8点半，美国劳工部公布了美国4月CPI。数据显示，不光是美国的整体CPI还是核心CPI，4月份增速都创出惊人记录。其中，美国4月整体CPI同比大增4.2%（市场预期3.6%），增速创2008年9月以来新高；4月核心CPI同比大增3%，创1996年1月以来最大增长。奔5%的通胀，可不是长期通胀平均2%可以忍受的，除非下个月就下来，表示这是“虚惊一场”，但是下个月大幅下滑的可能性目前看来不大。市场通过价格也传达了这一预期：2022年升息的可能性，在数据公布后已经高达100%。这反过来意味着，刚刚因为就业数据大幅不及预期而推迟的缩减QE时间，又再次被提前。这种被左右拉扯不知如何是好的感觉有点似曾相识，也是美联储最害怕的情景：通胀爆了，就业萎靡……这叫啥来着？市场开始不信美联储的说辞了早在今天数据公布之前，市场已经对美联储所谓长期通胀保持2%的说辞表示出了怀疑态度。纽约联邦储备银行公布的4月消费者调查（相当于美联储的“民调”）显示：随着经济从疫情引发的危机中复苏，美国消费者未来一年通胀的预期中值为3.4%，创2013年9月以来最高水平。对未来三年通胀的预期维持在3.1%不变。之所以美联储这么在乎通胀“民调”，是因为通胀最可怕的一点就是形成“民众共识”后螺旋上升。对于通胀的预期，可以粗略分成三个层次：1． 市场上金融产品所隐含的通胀预期；2．所谓经济学家们“共识”预测的通胀预（这两个层基本上跟美联储的预测是一致的）3． 民众的真实通胀预期。第三个层次决定了通胀自我实现的特点。如果经过了一段时间相对高的通胀（很可能高于2%），让美国工人认为生活成本提高了，需要加工资；让厂商认为需要提价才能应对更高的工资和各种成本，那通胀最终从2%+冲上5%，甚至是70年代的10%+都不是没有可能的。实际上，上一次美国CPI高达4.2%的时候，美联储的利率高达20%——正是70年代的滞胀时期。滞胀！？滞胀是美联储最害怕的“天敌”——在滞胀出现时，美联储政策就会失去主动权，进入完全被动状态。因为在这种情况下，美联储收紧政策，虽然可以控制通胀，但是经济受不了；但是如果放松政策救经济，通胀就上天了——左右不是人，无解；只能硬抗，让时间来慢慢消化，像70年代一样。虽然一个月的数据在理论上只是加剧了市场担心，不至于产生恐慌——毕竟去年4月份的美国确实是通缩状态，美联储所说的基数效应确实存在。图：去年4月美国通缩得厉害如果，五月数据可以回落到让市场可以接受的3%左右，那通胀预期还“有得救”；但如果下个月还维持4%左右，那美联储很可能需要赶紧“放鹰”，控制一下通胀预期。另外，就业方面虽然4月非农数据非常不理想(17.5199,-0.26,-1.46%)，但是有望在5月出现大幅改观，详见：拜登“觉醒”！5月美国就业可以破百万么？。意味着什么本次数据虽然令人震惊，但是仍属于“一次性”的性质——市场概率根据最新情况进行调整是非常正常的，100%加息概率也不代表一定发生，因为距离2022年底还有很长时间，中间还有很多数据会再次更改概率。尽管如此，这仍会让5月份数据变成一个“决胜点”。首先，去年5月份美国经济已经摆脱通缩，其通胀读数跟2020年剩下的月份差距不大，如果5月通胀再次高达4%左右，就不能再说是基数问题了——这时候美联储需要“表示表示”，否则通胀很有可能进入“自我实现”通道。另外，不管5月就业好还是不好，都已经“无所谓”了：好就表明通胀压力更大；不好说明滞胀越来越近了——怎么样对市场而言都是坏消息。这就是为什么美联储现在开始反复强调，就业现在需要盯住劳动参与率，因为不仅失业率数据“失灵了”，就连非农数据现在都不太好使了。5月或是整个市场的转折点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109509871,"gmtCreate":1619703336993,"gmtModify":1704728287204,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109509871","repostId":"1170908014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170908014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618906754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170908014?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374268973,"gmtCreate":1619449121492,"gmtModify":1704724119329,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374268973","repostId":"1117870906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117870906","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619448210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117870906?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 22:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Dallas Fed's business activity index hit a new high since 2006 in April.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117870906","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"得州工厂活动在4月份强劲增长。","content":"<p>US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index:<b>37.3，</b>This is the highest since January 1, 2006. Expected: 30, Previous: 28.9</p><p>Dallas Fed: Business executives interviewed said Texas factory activity grew strongly in April. A key measure of manufacturing conditions, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing output index fell 14 points to 34.0 in April, still well above average, indicating strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also showed strong economic growth this month, with demand, labor, price, and wage indices all hitting record highs.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Dallas Fed's business activity index hit a new high since 2006 in April.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Dallas Fed's business activity index hit a new high since 2006 in April.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-26 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index:<b>37.3，</b>This is the highest since January 1, 2006. Expected: 30, Previous: 28.9</p><p>Dallas Fed: Business executives interviewed said Texas factory activity grew strongly in April. A key measure of manufacturing conditions, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing output index fell 14 points to 34.0 in April, still well above average, indicating strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also showed strong economic growth this month, with demand, labor, price, and wage indices all hitting record highs.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3943713662845b492791ee924661e81d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117870906","content_text":"美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数：37.3，为2006年1月1日以来新高。预期：30，前值：28.9\n达拉斯联储：受访企业高管表示，得州工厂活动在4月份强劲增长。衡量制造业状况的关键指标，即4月达拉斯联储制造业产出指数下跌14点，至34.0，仍远高于平均水平，表明产出增长强劲。其它衡量制造业活动的指标也显示，本月经济增长强劲，需求、劳动力、价格和工资指数均创下历史新高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}