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2021-07-10

$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$?

2021-07-01

$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$????

2023-02-10

$AMC院线(AMC)$ How did it become a junk stock again?🤦🏻‍♂️

2021-07-18

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$?

2021-03-06

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U.S. Senate Democrats Reach Deal on Unemployment Insurance Extension

2021-07-12

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$???

2021-03-14

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Is Biden's infrastructure expected to be passed within the year?

2021-08-31

$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$??

2021-06-28

$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$????????

2021-06-07

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I'm afraid it's hard for Gome to have a name in the "6.18" battle

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Inc.(MMAT)$????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150314945","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114821882,"gmtCreate":1623067163846,"gmtModify":1704195336645,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114821882","repostId":"1171406130","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171406130","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623066365,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171406130?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 19:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"I'm afraid it's hard for Gome to have a name in the \"6.18\" battle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171406130","media":" 锌刻度","summary":"黄光裕，迎来重掌国美的一大挑战。\n一年一度的“6·18”，堪称电商上半年的关键之战，京东、苏宁、拼多多、淘宝等无不摩拳擦掌。\n对国美而言，则是一个检验“复兴”效果的契机。\n“希望通过我们的奋斗，我们的","content":"<p>Huang Guangyu is facing a big challenge to regain control of Gome.</p><p>The annual \"6.18\" can be called the key battle of e-commerce in the first half of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Suning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>, Taobao, etc. are all gearing up.</p><p>For Gome, it is an opportunity to test the effect of \"revival\".</p><p>\"I hope that through our struggle and efforts, we will strive to restore the original market position of the enterprise in the next 18 months,\" Huang Guangyu said boldly on the third day after his official release.</p><p>However, Gome has been lagging behind for more than ten years.</p><p>Its retail sales revenue in 2020 was 44.119 billion yuan, during the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002024\">Suning.com</a>The sales scale of products is 416.315 billion yuan. The two that were comparable in the past are now a full order of magnitude behind.</p><p>So, what cards does Gome, which has turned from conservative to offensive, have to play in this \"6.18\" war? Under the pattern of numerous e-commerce giants, can we find a gap to jump up? Will the home improvement market become the second curve of Gome?</p><p><b>Live broadcast is weak, short videos become advertising sites</b></p><p>\"I heard that Maotai is easy to grab, so I went to Gome.\" E Zijun said.</p><p>E Zijun told Zinc Scale that Maotai on the Gome e-commerce APP \"True Happiness\" is as difficult to grab, but later he learned that it was \"routine\": Xiaomei Bangbang, a sharing commission-earning tool on \"True Happiness\", every successful promotion A member can get a commission of up to 6 yuan, and the so-called easy grab of Maotai is one of its biggest gimmicks.</p><p>In E Zijun's view, \"True Happiness\" followed Taobao's example of launching the live broadcast function, JD.COM's example of launching the 99 membership function, and Pinduoduo's example of launching the game and group snap-up function. \"At best, it's a masterpiece, and at worst, it's just a stitching monster!\"</p><p>The zinc scale survey found that,<b>The above-mentioned function of \"True Happiness\" is still the conventional gameplay of e-commerce, and it is still far from seizing the minds of users.</b></p><p>For example, the live broadcast is regarded as a value growth point by Gome, and Huang Guangyu has high hopes. However, the live broadcast on \"True Happiness\" is quite single, mostly in Gome's offline store scenes, and the clerk directly serves as the anchor.</p><p>According to Times Finance, since the beginning of the year, Gome has required employees to guide customers to place orders through the \"True Happiness\" APP. Among them, the live broadcast assessment target requires that the number of viewers per game should not be less than 30.</p><p>After a week's observation, Zinc Scale found that most live broadcasts lacked popularity, and in most cases, the number of viewers remained in double digits, even less than 30 people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524f5566e23fc3c50ec348a5996b1ccc\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"1476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Viewers below 30</p><p>What's worse,<b>The short videos of \"Really Happy\" are almost all advertisements for manufacturers.</b></p><p>For another example, \"True Happiness\" moves slot machine games into \"True Happiness\". Users can get tiger coins by logging in to the activity page every day to sign in or shop. Those who choose a multiplier of 2 times, 5 times or 8 times for lottery draws, thus having the opportunity to get high tiger coin rewards.</p><p>Little tiger coins can be exchanged for real happy beans, which can be redeemed in cash when shopping. Therefore, there is a saying on the Internet that \"Little tiger fights, and bicycles become motorcycles\".</p><p>The problem is,<b>This style of play is obviously on the edge of the law, and the practice of \"True Happiness\" openly implanting it into the e-commerce system is debatable</b>。</p><p><b>Is there just a bluff behind the \"price war\"?</b></p><p>Actually,<b>Price war is the killer of \"true happiness\".</b></p><p>Near May Day, Huang Guangyu sent an open letter: \"After 34 years of deep involvement in the retail industry, Gome deeply felt the pain of low-price gimmicks in the industry, and was well aware of the difficulty of low-price sustainability. It was convinced that only the real low price with high cost performance, winning by quantity, small profits but quick turnover, and the real support of manufacturer partners could meet the interests of consumers and drive market prosperity.\"</p><p>This means that Gome has raised the banner of \"price war\".</p><p>During the \"6.18\" period, the price war of \"True Happiness\" covered many fields such as electrical appliances, department stores, drinks, etc., in an attempt to find a gap to jump up under the pattern of e-commerce giants.</p><p>In this regard, Zhao Bingcong, who is being renovated, has a deep understanding.</p><p>Because he is in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, it is difficult to dry the clothes on the balcony of Huangmeitian. Zhao Bingcong has suffered before, and this time he wants to buy a dryer for his new home. In comparison, Gome is almost the lowest in the entire network.</p><p>\"The neighbor recommended Siemens WT47W5681W, which also comes with its own sterilization function.\" Zhao Bingcong said that Gome's price is 7,499 yuan, which is 100 yuan less than that of mainstream e-commerce platforms. \"You can buy one or two more T-shirts.\"</p><p>However, Zhao Bingcong told Zinc Scale that only some home appliances have a price advantage in \"True Happiness\", and most of the other products are not dominant, and some are even at a disadvantage.</p><p>In other words,<b>The firepower density of Gome's \"price war\" is not as great as imagined.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>The 2020 annual report shows that as of December 31, 2020, Gome Retail had cash and cash equivalents of 9.597 billion yuan, and the net cash flow generated from operating activities was 1.851 billion yuan. It can be seen that its background in fighting the \"price war\" is not deep.</p><p>In fact, the zinc scale survey found that the current \"Really Happy\" \"Newcomer Exclusive 1 yuan Purchase\" activity is useless because the coupons have already been robbed, but the publicity in the APP has not been pulled down, which has caused new entrants. Consumers are dissatisfied, and the voice of \"don't play if you can't afford it\" is quite high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff327127cb836d1a50c551d49bff644\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Activities without coupons are useless</p><p>This is confirmed from the side,<b>Gome's \"price war\" lacks stamina and urgently needs to replenish ammunition.</b></p><p>An Internet observer told Zinc Scale: \"At a time when Internet traffic is peaking and customer acquisition costs are high, if Gome's low-price subsidy strategy cannot continue to output and cover a large area, the possibility of overtaking in corners will be doubtful.\"</p><p><b>E-commerce falls behind, and it is difficult to break the traffic bottleneck even if the curve attacks</b></p><p>Under the above disadvantages,<b>Gome may find it difficult to overtake in corners in traditional fields</b>In fact, the official is well aware of this, and is actively seeking a breakthrough to solve the problem.</p><p>\"If Gome continues to promote the same e-commerce model as JD.COM Tmall, it will be difficult to form a new pattern and competitiveness.\" He Yangqing, CEO of Gome Investment Company, said in an interview with the media, \"There are very few leading companies in the home improvement industry, and the market share is even less than 1%.\"</p><p>Yeah,<b>Gome has set its sights on the home improvement market.</b></p><p>According to the big data of Aowei Cloud Network, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the decoration demand of the stock housing market is expected to exceed 35 million units, a significant increase of more than 77% compared with the 13th Five-Year Plan period.</p><p>Relevant data shows that with the increase in the proportion of decoration amount in fourth-tier cities and below, the home improvement market will reach a scale of 6 trillion yuan by around 2025, which is four times that of the home appliance industry.</p><p>To this end, Gome is eager to incorporate scheme design, contract signing, material procurement, construction acceptance, etc. into a unified platform to create a closed loop of transparent decoration.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326a3b0e0b05fb12c2c69139cef10128\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gome invested in Dresser, using it as the starting point for entering the home improvement market</p><p>Huang Guangyu said: \"In the industrial chain, we work together to optimize, and all parties standardize the industry step by step, giving everyone more sustainable development space with implementation path.\"</p><p>Nevertheless, but<b>Gome's road to breakthrough may not be smooth</b>。</p><p>Transparent decoration is not new, but its implementation is not ideal. The reason is that the home decoration chain is long, there are many links, and it is difficult to trace. Especially when the popularity of digitalization is low, supervision has become a long-standing problem.</p><p>This cannot be changed overnight.</p><p>In addition, Gome is taking the platform model, which does not involve specific decoration business. In essence, it is still doing traffic business. The problem is that there is no shortage of home improvement platforms in the market, including vertical home improvement platforms such as Qijia.com and comprehensive home improvement platforms such as Tmall Home Improvement. So under the confrontation, why does Gome attract home improvement companies of all sizes?</p><p>Going around in circles, I returned to the problem of how to break through the traffic bottleneck.</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Pessimistic attitude: \"Gome has ambitions for future development, but its prospects and plans are not clear. Considering that its business is facing fierce competition and its development prospects are unclear, it reiterates its'underweight 'rating.\"</p><p>All in all,<b>Gome's rejuvenation still has a long way to go</b>On the one hand, it is necessary to transfer the advantages of offline to online and open up new traffic channels; on the other hand, it is necessary to convert traffic into actual sales, so as to be on the offensive in marketization such as home appliances and home improvement.</p><p>From this point of view, there is not much time left for Gome to redeem itself.</p>","source":"lsy1568158634801","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>I'm afraid it's hard for Gome to have a name in the \"6.18\" battle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nI'm afraid it's hard for Gome to have a name in the \"6.18\" battle\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 锌刻度</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 19:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Huang Guangyu is facing a big challenge to regain control of Gome.</p><p>The annual \"6.18\" can be called the key battle of e-commerce in the first half of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Suning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>, Taobao, etc. are all gearing up.</p><p>For Gome, it is an opportunity to test the effect of \"revival\".</p><p>\"I hope that through our struggle and efforts, we will strive to restore the original market position of the enterprise in the next 18 months,\" Huang Guangyu said boldly on the third day after his official release.</p><p>However, Gome has been lagging behind for more than ten years.</p><p>Its retail sales revenue in 2020 was 44.119 billion yuan, during the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002024\">Suning.com</a>The sales scale of products is 416.315 billion yuan. The two that were comparable in the past are now a full order of magnitude behind.</p><p>So, what cards does Gome, which has turned from conservative to offensive, have to play in this \"6.18\" war? Under the pattern of numerous e-commerce giants, can we find a gap to jump up? Will the home improvement market become the second curve of Gome?</p><p><b>Live broadcast is weak, short videos become advertising sites</b></p><p>\"I heard that Maotai is easy to grab, so I went to Gome.\" E Zijun said.</p><p>E Zijun told Zinc Scale that Maotai on the Gome e-commerce APP \"True Happiness\" is as difficult to grab, but later he learned that it was \"routine\": Xiaomei Bangbang, a sharing commission-earning tool on \"True Happiness\", every successful promotion A member can get a commission of up to 6 yuan, and the so-called easy grab of Maotai is one of its biggest gimmicks.</p><p>In E Zijun's view, \"True Happiness\" followed Taobao's example of launching the live broadcast function, JD.COM's example of launching the 99 membership function, and Pinduoduo's example of launching the game and group snap-up function. \"At best, it's a masterpiece, and at worst, it's just a stitching monster!\"</p><p>The zinc scale survey found that,<b>The above-mentioned function of \"True Happiness\" is still the conventional gameplay of e-commerce, and it is still far from seizing the minds of users.</b></p><p>For example, the live broadcast is regarded as a value growth point by Gome, and Huang Guangyu has high hopes. However, the live broadcast on \"True Happiness\" is quite single, mostly in Gome's offline store scenes, and the clerk directly serves as the anchor.</p><p>According to Times Finance, since the beginning of the year, Gome has required employees to guide customers to place orders through the \"True Happiness\" APP. Among them, the live broadcast assessment target requires that the number of viewers per game should not be less than 30.</p><p>After a week's observation, Zinc Scale found that most live broadcasts lacked popularity, and in most cases, the number of viewers remained in double digits, even less than 30 people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524f5566e23fc3c50ec348a5996b1ccc\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"1476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Viewers below 30</p><p>What's worse,<b>The short videos of \"Really Happy\" are almost all advertisements for manufacturers.</b></p><p>For another example, \"True Happiness\" moves slot machine games into \"True Happiness\". Users can get tiger coins by logging in to the activity page every day to sign in or shop. Those who choose a multiplier of 2 times, 5 times or 8 times for lottery draws, thus having the opportunity to get high tiger coin rewards.</p><p>Little tiger coins can be exchanged for real happy beans, which can be redeemed in cash when shopping. Therefore, there is a saying on the Internet that \"Little tiger fights, and bicycles become motorcycles\".</p><p>The problem is,<b>This style of play is obviously on the edge of the law, and the practice of \"True Happiness\" openly implanting it into the e-commerce system is debatable</b>。</p><p><b>Is there just a bluff behind the \"price war\"?</b></p><p>Actually,<b>Price war is the killer of \"true happiness\".</b></p><p>Near May Day, Huang Guangyu sent an open letter: \"After 34 years of deep involvement in the retail industry, Gome deeply felt the pain of low-price gimmicks in the industry, and was well aware of the difficulty of low-price sustainability. It was convinced that only the real low price with high cost performance, winning by quantity, small profits but quick turnover, and the real support of manufacturer partners could meet the interests of consumers and drive market prosperity.\"</p><p>This means that Gome has raised the banner of \"price war\".</p><p>During the \"6.18\" period, the price war of \"True Happiness\" covered many fields such as electrical appliances, department stores, drinks, etc., in an attempt to find a gap to jump up under the pattern of e-commerce giants.</p><p>In this regard, Zhao Bingcong, who is being renovated, has a deep understanding.</p><p>Because he is in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, it is difficult to dry the clothes on the balcony of Huangmeitian. Zhao Bingcong has suffered before, and this time he wants to buy a dryer for his new home. In comparison, Gome is almost the lowest in the entire network.</p><p>\"The neighbor recommended Siemens WT47W5681W, which also comes with its own sterilization function.\" Zhao Bingcong said that Gome's price is 7,499 yuan, which is 100 yuan less than that of mainstream e-commerce platforms. \"You can buy one or two more T-shirts.\"</p><p>However, Zhao Bingcong told Zinc Scale that only some home appliances have a price advantage in \"True Happiness\", and most of the other products are not dominant, and some are even at a disadvantage.</p><p>In other words,<b>The firepower density of Gome's \"price war\" is not as great as imagined.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>The 2020 annual report shows that as of December 31, 2020, Gome Retail had cash and cash equivalents of 9.597 billion yuan, and the net cash flow generated from operating activities was 1.851 billion yuan. It can be seen that its background in fighting the \"price war\" is not deep.</p><p>In fact, the zinc scale survey found that the current \"Really Happy\" \"Newcomer Exclusive 1 yuan Purchase\" activity is useless because the coupons have already been robbed, but the publicity in the APP has not been pulled down, which has caused new entrants. Consumers are dissatisfied, and the voice of \"don't play if you can't afford it\" is quite high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff327127cb836d1a50c551d49bff644\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Activities without coupons are useless</p><p>This is confirmed from the side,<b>Gome's \"price war\" lacks stamina and urgently needs to replenish ammunition.</b></p><p>An Internet observer told Zinc Scale: \"At a time when Internet traffic is peaking and customer acquisition costs are high, if Gome's low-price subsidy strategy cannot continue to output and cover a large area, the possibility of overtaking in corners will be doubtful.\"</p><p><b>E-commerce falls behind, and it is difficult to break the traffic bottleneck even if the curve attacks</b></p><p>Under the above disadvantages,<b>Gome may find it difficult to overtake in corners in traditional fields</b>In fact, the official is well aware of this, and is actively seeking a breakthrough to solve the problem.</p><p>\"If Gome continues to promote the same e-commerce model as JD.COM Tmall, it will be difficult to form a new pattern and competitiveness.\" He Yangqing, CEO of Gome Investment Company, said in an interview with the media, \"There are very few leading companies in the home improvement industry, and the market share is even less than 1%.\"</p><p>Yeah,<b>Gome has set its sights on the home improvement market.</b></p><p>According to the big data of Aowei Cloud Network, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the decoration demand of the stock housing market is expected to exceed 35 million units, a significant increase of more than 77% compared with the 13th Five-Year Plan period.</p><p>Relevant data shows that with the increase in the proportion of decoration amount in fourth-tier cities and below, the home improvement market will reach a scale of 6 trillion yuan by around 2025, which is four times that of the home appliance industry.</p><p>To this end, Gome is eager to incorporate scheme design, contract signing, material procurement, construction acceptance, etc. into a unified platform to create a closed loop of transparent decoration.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326a3b0e0b05fb12c2c69139cef10128\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gome invested in Dresser, using it as the starting point for entering the home improvement market</p><p>Huang Guangyu said: \"In the industrial chain, we work together to optimize, and all parties standardize the industry step by step, giving everyone more sustainable development space with implementation path.\"</p><p>Nevertheless, but<b>Gome's road to breakthrough may not be smooth</b>。</p><p>Transparent decoration is not new, but its implementation is not ideal. The reason is that the home decoration chain is long, there are many links, and it is difficult to trace. Especially when the popularity of digitalization is low, supervision has become a long-standing problem.</p><p>This cannot be changed overnight.</p><p>In addition, Gome is taking the platform model, which does not involve specific decoration business. In essence, it is still doing traffic business. The problem is that there is no shortage of home improvement platforms in the market, including vertical home improvement platforms such as Qijia.com and comprehensive home improvement platforms such as Tmall Home Improvement. So under the confrontation, why does Gome attract home improvement companies of all sizes?</p><p>Going around in circles, I returned to the problem of how to break through the traffic bottleneck.</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Pessimistic attitude: \"Gome has ambitions for future development, but its prospects and plans are not clear. Considering that its business is facing fierce competition and its development prospects are unclear, it reiterates its'underweight 'rating.\"</p><p>All in all,<b>Gome's rejuvenation still has a long way to go</b>On the one hand, it is necessary to transfer the advantages of offline to online and open up new traffic channels; on the other hand, it is necessary to convert traffic into actual sales, so as to be on the offensive in marketization such as home appliances and home improvement.</p><p>From this point of view, there is not much time left for Gome to redeem itself.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/m-9VfbcT8jzObWdeYZgBzA\"> 锌刻度</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f78d2f00cbc26b40aac0942a0a777ee","relate_stocks":{"00493":"国美零售"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/m-9VfbcT8jzObWdeYZgBzA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171406130","content_text":"黄光裕，迎来重掌国美的一大挑战。\n一年一度的“6·18”，堪称电商上半年的关键之战，京东、苏宁、拼多多、淘宝等无不摩拳擦掌。\n对国美而言，则是一个检验“复兴”效果的契机。\n“希望通过我们的奋斗，我们的努力，力争用未来18个月的时间，使企业恢复原有的市场地位。”黄光裕于正式获释第三天放出豪言。\n然而，国美掉队已有十余年。\n其2020年零售销售收入为441.19亿元，同期苏宁易购的商品销售规模为4163.15亿元，昔日比肩的两者，如今差了足足一个量级。\n那么，从保守转为进攻的国美，在这场“6·18”大战中，有哪些牌可打？在电商巨头林立的格局之下，能否寻找到上跃的空隙？家装市场，会成为国美的第二曲线吗？\n直播乏力，短视频沦为广告地盘\n“听说茅台好抢，才去的国美。”鄂子君如是说。\n鄂子君告诉锌刻度，国美电商APP“真快乐”上的茅台一样难抢，后来才知道是被“套路”了：“真快乐”上的分享赚佣金工具小美帮帮，每成功推广一位会员即可获得最高6元的佣金，而所谓的茅台好抢正是其最大噱头之一。\n在鄂子君看来，“真快乐”效仿淘宝推出了直播功能，效仿京东推出了九九会员功能，效仿拼多多推出了游戏、拼团抢购功能，“往好了说是集大成，往坏了说不就是缝合怪嘛！”\n锌刻度调查发现，“真快乐”的上述功能依然是电商的常规玩法，离抢占用户心智尚远。\n譬如，直播被国美视为价值增长点，被黄光裕寄予厚望，不过“真快乐”上的直播颇为单一，多为国美线下门店场景，店员直接兼任主播。\n据《时代财经》报道，从年初开始，国美要求员工引导顾客通过“真快乐”APP下单，其中直播考核目标要求每场观看人数不得低于30人。\n经过一周的观察，锌刻度发现多数直播人气匮乏，多数情况下观众人数维系在两位数，甚至有低于30人情况存在。观众人数低于30\n更为糟糕的是，“真快乐”的短视频几乎全为厂商的宣传广告。\n再譬如，“真快乐”把老虎机游戏搬入“真快乐”，用户每天登陆活动页面签到或购物就能获得小虎币，者选择2倍、5倍或8倍的倍率进行抽奖，从而有机会获得高额小虎币奖励。\n而小虎币可兑换真快乐豆，后者在购物时可抵现，因而网上有“小虎搏一搏，单车变摩托”的说法。\n问题在于，这个打法明显游走在法律边缘，“真快乐”堂而皇之将其植入电商体系的做法值得商榷。\n“价格战”背后只是虚张声势？\n其实，价格战才是“真快乐”的杀手锏。\n临近五一，黄光裕发了一封公开信：“深耕零售业34年，国美深感行业低价噱头化之痛，深知低价可持续性之难，深信只有高性价比、以量取胜、薄利多销的真低价，厂商伙伴的真支持，才能符合消费者的利益和带动市场繁荣。”\n这意味着，国美祭起“价格战”的大旗。\n在“6·18”期间，“真快乐”的价格战范围覆盖电器、百货、酒水等多个领域，以图在电商巨头林立的格局之下，寻找上跃的空隙。\n对此，正在装修的赵冰聪深有体会。\n由于身处江浙地区，遇到黄梅天阳台的衣服难以晾干，赵冰聪之前吃过苦头，这次想为新家添置一台烘干机，对比下来国美差不多为全网最低。\n“邻居推荐的是西门子WT47W5681W，还自带除菌功能。”赵冰聪表示国美售价7499元，到手价比主流电商平台少了100元，“可以再多买一两件T恤了。”\n不过，赵冰聪告诉锌刻度，“真快乐”上仅部分家电具备价格优势，其余商品多数不占优，甚至有的还处于劣势。\n换而言之，国美的“价格战”的火力密度并没有想象的那么大。\n据国美零售2020年年报显示，截至2020年12月31日，国美零售拥有现金及现金等价物为95.97亿元，经营活动产生的现金流量净额为18.51亿元，可见其打“价格战”的底蕴并不深厚。\n事实上，锌刻度调查发现，眼下“真快乐”的“新人专享1元购”活动，因为优惠券早已被抢完，该活动形同虚设，可APP中的宣传并未拉下，从而引起新入的消费者不满，“玩不起就不要玩”声量颇高。没有券活动形同虚设\n这从侧面印证了，国美的“价格战”后劲不足，亟需补充弹药。\n一名互联网观察人士告诉锌刻度：“在互联网流量见顶、获客成本高企的当下，国美的低价补贴打法如若不能持续输出、大面积覆盖，那弯道超车的可能性就存疑。”\n电商掉队，曲线出击也难破流量瓶颈\n上述种种劣势之下，国美恐难在传统领域上演弯道超车，对此官方其实也是心知肚明，进而也在积极寻求一个解题的突破口。\n“国美如果继续推进和京东天猫一样的电商模式，很难形成新的格局和竞争力。”国美投资公司CEO何阳青在接受媒体采访时表示，“家装行业头部公司非常少，市场份额甚至不足1%。”\n是的，国美将突围的目光瞄向了家装市场。\n据奥维云网大数据显示，在十四五期间存量房市场装修需求预计可超过3500万套，相比十三五期间大幅提升超过77%。\n而相关数据显示，随着四线及以下城市装修金额比例上升，家装市场到2025年左右达到6万亿元的规模，这一规模是家电行业的四倍。\n为此，国美渴望将方案设计、合同签订、材料采购、施工验收等纳入统一平台，打造一个透明装修的闭环。国美入股打扮家，以其为切入家装市场的抓手\n黄光裕表示：“在产业链里我们协同进行优化，各方一步一步把这个行业进行规范，给大家更多的可持续的而且有实施路径的发展空间。”\n尽管如此，但国美的突围之路或并不平坦。\n透明装修并非新鲜事物，然而落地却不太理想，究其原因为家装链条长、环节多、追溯难，特别是在数字化普及较低的情况下，监管成为老大难的问题。\n这并非一朝一夕可以改变的。\n此外，国美走的是平台模式，不下场涉及具体的装修业务，本质上仍然做的是流量生意，问题在于市场并不缺家装平台，既有齐家网等垂直家装平台，也有天猫家装等综合家装平台，那么对垒之下，国美何以吸引大大小小的家装公司？\n兜兜转转，又回到流量瓶颈如何突破这个问题上。\n对此，摩根大通持悲观态度：“国美对未来发展具有野心，但前景及计划未见明朗，考虑到业务面对激烈竞争及发展前景未明，重申‘减持’评级。”\n总而言之，国美的复兴之路依然任重道远，一方面需将线下的优势转移至线上，开拓流量新渠道，另外一方面则需将流量转化为实际销量，从而在家电、家装等市场化守势为攻势。\n这么来看，留给国美自我救赎的时间不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00493":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115940738,"gmtCreate":1622947959524,"gmtModify":1704193599039,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??‍♂️","listText":"??‍♂️","text":"??‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115940738","repostId":"1136586425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115950133,"gmtCreate":1622947482322,"gmtModify":1704193584962,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??‍♂️","listText":"??‍♂️","text":"??‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115950133","repostId":"2141004294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141004294","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622959849,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141004294?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 14:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141004294","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司","content":"<p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which was established ten years ago, ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's shares once reached an all-time high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, with its market value exceeding one trillion yuan again. Not long ago, on May 31, the company's stock price soared by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant that joined the A-share \"trillion yuan\" market value club with its technology manufacturing attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just as the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" the Ningde era, some people saw a \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's rating to \"underweight\" with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount on the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL's stock rating from overweight to equal weight. The reason given at that time was that the medium-term prospects of new energy batteries have basically been reflected in the stock price, and the global automobile Whether factories can launch new models that are popular in the market may not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can the Ningde era standing on the \"top of the mountain\" still catch up? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers that need attention.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in a downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry and the high valuation premium given by the market to leading companies, Ningde Times has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored by institutions\" since its listing, and its stock price has continued to rise.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that from the listing of the GEM on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's stock price as a whole has shown a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan per share at the beginning of listing, CATL's stock price has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>But behind the rising stock price, CATL's profitability continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45 GWh of power battery systems, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, bringing in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is not as good as the growth rate of sales, indicating that product prices are declining.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the price increase of bulk commodities since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, the main raw materials produced in CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure on cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased significantly, which put a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance checked the financial report and found that this is not the first time that the gross profit margin of CATL has declined. In fact, since its listing, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's gross profit margin has been in a downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Ningde Times financial report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the figure above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin dropped from 43.7% to 27.76%, and it earned 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the status before listing, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability differentiated significantly before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also stated in its financial report that if factors such as intensified market competition or industry policy adjustments in the future cause adverse changes in the company's product selling prices and raw material purchase prices, the company's gross profit margin will risk a decline.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 27.28%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points from the same period last year. It has not yet returned to the gross profit margin level in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points from the previous quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the company's ability to return shareholders has weakened, and its weighted return on equity (ROE) has dropped from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, this does not seem to have affected the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a runaway wild horse.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"riding a horse\"</b></p><p>Based on the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the rolling P/E corresponding to CATL is 149 times, which is the highest value in history; Calculated based on the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the unanimous performance forecast given by securities firms, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E, which is still a value within the five-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of CATL has increased from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, less than doubled, and P/E has increased from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of its listing. 7 times, obviously the valuation runs faster, or there is the possibility of consuming the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit growth rate was only 22.43% year-on-year, but with Tesla's \"hitchhiking\", the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its stock price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year. Yuan, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit will be 4.234 billion yuan, the market value will be about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E will be 125 times, which is significantly lower than that of the Ningde era; Looking at Panasonic again, the net profit in 2020 is equivalent to about 10.27 billion yuan, which is 22 times the static P/E. Compared with the Ningde era, it is really as low as the dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three major automakers with the highest A-share market value are brought in, BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor, the combined market value of the three is 1,088.1 billion yuan. CATL has created a trillion-dollar market value with one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that since the new energy industry is in the growth stage, CATL's scale expansion advantage under its leading position is more likely to highlight the market share aggregation effect, resulting in long-term development space.</p><p>According to statistics from South Korean research institution SNEResearch, from January to April this year, global electric vehicle battery sales were 65.9 Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer product, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand. To a certain extent, this determines that the industry will enter a mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the increase in demand is limited. With the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space does CATL have to overdraw?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited a \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\" rating.</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the huge wave of lifting the ban that CATL is about to usher in on June 10 requires special vigilance.</p><p>Up to now, the stock price of Ningde Times is 432.21 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1,006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on the GEM. The market value of the lifting of the ban of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the lifting of the ban next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by Ningde Times on June 10 came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Green Lianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, and Li Ping were the first, second, and fifth largest shareholders of Ningde Times respectively. Among the five shareholders of CATL who will lift the ban next week, Ruiting Investment has a market value of 247 billion yuan, Huang Shilin has a market value of 112.764 billion yuan, Li Ping has a market value of 48.386 billion yuan, and the other two shareholders have a market value of less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of Ningde Times, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of Ningde Times. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of Ningde Times, of which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are persons acting in concert.</p><p><b>CATL's lifting of ban details</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, the lifting of the ban will form shareholders' expectations to reduce their holdings, forcing short-term pressure on the stock price on the market, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>So, under the huge lifting of the ban, can Ningde era stand firm at the trillion market value mark?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-06 14:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which was established ten years ago, ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's shares once reached an all-time high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, with its market value exceeding one trillion yuan again. Not long ago, on May 31, the company's stock price soared by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant that joined the A-share \"trillion yuan\" market value club with its technology manufacturing attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just as the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" the Ningde era, some people saw a \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's rating to \"underweight\" with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount on the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL's stock rating from overweight to equal weight. The reason given at that time was that the medium-term prospects of new energy batteries have basically been reflected in the stock price, and the global automobile Whether factories can launch new models that are popular in the market may not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can the Ningde era standing on the \"top of the mountain\" still catch up? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers that need attention.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in a downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry and the high valuation premium given by the market to leading companies, Ningde Times has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored by institutions\" since its listing, and its stock price has continued to rise.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that from the listing of the GEM on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's stock price as a whole has shown a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan per share at the beginning of listing, CATL's stock price has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>But behind the rising stock price, CATL's profitability continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45 GWh of power battery systems, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, bringing in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is not as good as the growth rate of sales, indicating that product prices are declining.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the price increase of bulk commodities since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, the main raw materials produced in CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure on cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased significantly, which put a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance checked the financial report and found that this is not the first time that the gross profit margin of CATL has declined. In fact, since its listing, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's gross profit margin has been in a downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Ningde Times financial report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the figure above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin dropped from 43.7% to 27.76%, and it earned 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the status before listing, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability differentiated significantly before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also stated in its financial report that if factors such as intensified market competition or industry policy adjustments in the future cause adverse changes in the company's product selling prices and raw material purchase prices, the company's gross profit margin will risk a decline.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 27.28%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points from the same period last year. It has not yet returned to the gross profit margin level in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points from the previous quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the company's ability to return shareholders has weakened, and its weighted return on equity (ROE) has dropped from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, this does not seem to have affected the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a runaway wild horse.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"riding a horse\"</b></p><p>Based on the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the rolling P/E corresponding to CATL is 149 times, which is the highest value in history; Calculated based on the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the unanimous performance forecast given by securities firms, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E, which is still a value within the five-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of CATL has increased from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, less than doubled, and P/E has increased from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of its listing. 7 times, obviously the valuation runs faster, or there is the possibility of consuming the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit growth rate was only 22.43% year-on-year, but with Tesla's \"hitchhiking\", the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its stock price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year. Yuan, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit will be 4.234 billion yuan, the market value will be about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E will be 125 times, which is significantly lower than that of the Ningde era; Looking at Panasonic again, the net profit in 2020 is equivalent to about 10.27 billion yuan, which is 22 times the static P/E. Compared with the Ningde era, it is really as low as the dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three major automakers with the highest A-share market value are brought in, BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor, the combined market value of the three is 1,088.1 billion yuan. CATL has created a trillion-dollar market value with one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that since the new energy industry is in the growth stage, CATL's scale expansion advantage under its leading position is more likely to highlight the market share aggregation effect, resulting in long-term development space.</p><p>According to statistics from South Korean research institution SNEResearch, from January to April this year, global electric vehicle battery sales were 65.9 Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer product, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand. To a certain extent, this determines that the industry will enter a mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the increase in demand is limited. With the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space does CATL have to overdraw?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited a \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\" rating.</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the huge wave of lifting the ban that CATL is about to usher in on June 10 requires special vigilance.</p><p>Up to now, the stock price of Ningde Times is 432.21 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1,006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on the GEM. The market value of the lifting of the ban of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the lifting of the ban next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by Ningde Times on June 10 came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Green Lianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, and Li Ping were the first, second, and fifth largest shareholders of Ningde Times respectively. Among the five shareholders of CATL who will lift the ban next week, Ruiting Investment has a market value of 247 billion yuan, Huang Shilin has a market value of 112.764 billion yuan, Li Ping has a market value of 48.386 billion yuan, and the other two shareholders have a market value of less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of Ningde Times, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of Ningde Times. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of Ningde Times, of which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are persons acting in concert.</p><p><b>CATL's lifting of ban details</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, the lifting of the ban will form shareholders' expectations to reduce their holdings, forcing short-term pressure on the stock price on the market, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>So, under the huge lifting of the ban, can Ningde era stand firm at the trillion market value mark?</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a520115dfc7edeb93cc3cdf6a15df14","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141004294","content_text":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司股价放量大涨超过6％，市值首次破万亿，成为以科技制造业属性跻身A股“万亿”市值俱乐部的新巨头。不过，就在市场为宁德时代“拍手庆贺”的空档，有人却看到了“泡沫”。同一天，摩根士丹利将宁德时代评级下调至“低配”，目标价仅为251元，相当于给目前400多元的股价直接打了六折。无独有偶，早在2020年11月，大摩就曾将宁德时代的股票评级从超配下调至平配，当时给出的理由是，新能源电池的中期前景已基本反应在股价中，而且全球的汽车厂能否推出受市场欢迎的新车型情况可能要到明年才能被验证。究竟是高了还是低了？站上“山顶”的宁德时代还能不能追？对于投资者来说，至少有三重隐患是需要关注的。/ 01 /盈利能力处在下行通道作为动力电池行业的龙头，受益于行业景气度高，市场给予头部公司较高的估值溢价，宁德时代自上市以来便享受到了被机构“团宠”的待遇，簇拥其股价不断上扬。拉长日线可见，从2018年6月11日登陆创业板开始，截止2021年6月4日，公司股价整体呈快速上升趋势。相较上市之初25.14元/股的发行价，宁德时代近三年的股价涨幅达到1592%。但在股价节节走高的背后，宁德时代的盈利能力却在持续下滑。2020年，公司销售动力电池系统44.45GWh，同比增长10.43%，带来收入394.26亿元，同比增长2.18%。收入增速不及销量增速，说明产品价格在下降。另一边，囿于2020年下半年以来大宗商品涨价，宁德时代主要生产原材料中碳酸锂及钴涨幅都超过20%，成本控制压力加大。收入微涨，成本大增，对利润造成一定挤压，2020年宁德时代的毛利率为27.76%，同比2019年的29.06%减少1.3个百分点。节点财经查阅财报发现，这并不是宁德时代毛利率初次下滑。事实上，自上市后，宁德时代的毛利率便一直停留在下行通道。数据来源：宁德时代财报、东方财富choice如上图所示，2016年至2020年，公司毛利率从43.7%下降至27.76%，五年少赚15.94个百分点。对比上市前的状态，2014年至2016年，公司毛利率从25.73%提升到43.7%，其盈利能力在上市前后分化明显。对此，宁德时代也在财报中表示，若未来市场竞争加剧或行业政策调整等因素使得公司产品售价及原材料采购价格发生不利变化，公司毛利率存在下降的风险。2021年一季度，公司毛利率为27.28%，较上年同期增加2.19个百分点，尚未恢复到疫情发生前2019年一季度毛利率水平，环比则减少1.08个百分点。于此同时，公司对股东的回报能力趋弱，其加权净资产收益率（ROE）从2016年的69.55%下降至2020年11.27%。不过，这似乎都没有影响到资本市场对宁德时代的追捧，估值如脱缰的野马一路飞奔。/ 02 /估值“策马狂奔”按照今年一季度净利润19.54亿元计算，宁德时代对应的滚动市盈率为149倍，处于历史最高值；按照2020年净利润55.83亿元计算，宁德时代对应的静态市盈率为179倍，同样处于历史最高值。即使按照券商给出的一致业绩预测，公司2023年净利润预计为200亿，对应51倍市盈率，这仍是一个处在5年估值中枢区间内的数值。结合业绩，2016年-2020年，五年时间，宁德时代净利润从28.52亿元到55.83亿元，涨了不到1 倍，市盈率从上市之初约23倍到179倍，涨了接近7倍，显然估值跑的更快，或者说有提前消耗估值的可能。2020年，公司净利润同比增速不过22.43%，但搭上特斯拉的“顺风车”，叠加新能源产业中长期规划发布，碳中和概念等，其年内股价从100多元狂飙到350多元，涨幅超过200%。对比同行，宁德时代的估值更是不便宜。就拿老对手比亚迪来说，2020年净利润42.34亿元，市值约5300亿元，静态市盈率125倍，显著低于宁德时代；再看看松下，2020年净利润折合人民币约102.7亿元，静态市盈率22倍，和宁德时代一比，真的要低到尘埃里了。更甚者，就算拉来目前A股市值最高的三大主车厂，比亚迪、长城汽车和上汽集团，三者合计市值10881亿元，宁德时代以一人之力创出万亿市值，相当彪悍。节点财经认为，由于新能源行业正处在成长期，宁德时代以龙头地位下的规模扩张优势，较容易凸显出市占率聚集效应，导致发展空间被看远、看久。韩国研究机构SNEResearch统计，今年1-4月，全球电动汽车电池销量65.9Gwh，其中宁德时代占有32.5%的份额。然而，作为大宗消费品，汽车具有消费频次低，非刚需等特点，这又在一定程度上决定了该行业进入成熟期的速度要快于手机、家电等一般消费品，且需求增量有限，随着产业链出货量增速放缓，宁德时代还有多少估值空间可以透支？近期，上海证券、财信证券均给予宁德时代“谨慎增持”或“谨慎推荐”评级。/ 03 /即将到来的解禁潮对短期投资者来说，宁德时代即将于6月10日迎来的一波解禁巨浪是需要特别警惕的。截至目前，宁德时代股价为432.21元/股，总市值为10068亿元，为创业板首只万亿市值个股。4116.29亿元的解禁市值占宁德时代总市值的40.88%，下周解禁后，宁德时代流通盘将大增70.18%。宁德时代6月10日解禁的股份来自于5名股东，分别为瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平、东鹏伟创投资、绿联君和产业并购股权投资基金合伙企业，截至2021年一季度末，瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平分列宁德时代第一、第二、第五大股东。在宁德时代下周解禁的5个股东中，瑞庭投资解禁市值达2470亿元，黄世霖解禁市值达1127.64亿元，李平解禁市值达483.86亿元，其他两名股东解禁市值不足20亿元。瑞庭投资为宁德时代控股股东，由宁德时代创始人、董事长曾毓群100%控股，黄世霖、李平为宁德时代联合创始人、副董事长，其中李平和曾毓群为一致行动人。宁德时代解禁详细信息一般来说，解禁会形成股东减持预期，迫使盘面股价短期承压，属于对散户们的重大利空。那么，巨量解禁之下，宁德时代在万亿市值的关口能够站得稳吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357760178,"gmtCreate":1617301678494,"gmtModify":1704698592882,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357760178","repostId":"1123979727","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123979727","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617287972,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123979727?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-01 22:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Uxin soared by more than 40%, and the company signed investment letters of intent with two well-known funds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123979727","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月1日，优信二手车盘中暴涨超40%，公司与两家知名的亚洲基金签订投资意向书。优信二手车宣布，公司已于4月1日与两家亚洲投资基金签订具约束力的投资意向书。据此，潜在投资者已同意与公司就认购高级可转换优","content":"<p>April 1st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Youxin</a>Second-hand cars soared by more than 40% intraday, and the company signed investment letters of intent with two well-known Asian funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2167fabccf148c1d56d49b6c72965108\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Youxin</a>Used Cars announced that the company has signed binding letters of intent with two Asian investment funds on April 1. Accordingly, potential investors have agreed to negotiate with the company on the subscription of senior convertible preferred shares and may enter into a definitive agreement. The total investment amount of the potential transaction may reach up to US $300 million.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uxin soared by more than 40%, and the company signed investment letters of intent with two well-known funds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUxin soared by more than 40%, and the company signed investment letters of intent with two well-known funds\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-01 22:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>April 1st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Youxin</a>Second-hand cars soared by more than 40% intraday, and the company signed investment letters of intent with two well-known Asian funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2167fabccf148c1d56d49b6c72965108\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Youxin</a>Used Cars announced that the company has signed binding letters of intent with two Asian investment funds on April 1. Accordingly, potential investors have agreed to negotiate with the company on the subscription of senior convertible preferred shares and may enter into a definitive agreement. The total investment amount of the potential transaction may reach up to US $300 million.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ade1733a461c9483048e104ccc2d044","relate_stocks":{"UXIN":"优信"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123979727","content_text":"4月1日，优信二手车盘中暴涨超40%，公司与两家知名的亚洲基金签订投资意向书。优信二手车宣布，公司已于4月1日与两家亚洲投资基金签订具约束力的投资意向书。据此，潜在投资者已同意与公司就认购高级可转换优先股进行磋商并可能签订最终协议，潜在交易的总投资额最高或将达3亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UXIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322698642,"gmtCreate":1615800217886,"gmtModify":1704786662842,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"+1","listText":"+1","text":"+1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322698642","repostId":"1187438693","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322036494,"gmtCreate":1615731407018,"gmtModify":1704786007044,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322036494","repostId":"2119921993","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119921993","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1615698793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2119921993?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-14 13:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is Biden's infrastructure expected to be passed within the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119921993","media":"智通财经网","summary":"拜登的一揽子基建计划包括哪些内容?立法需要什么流程?在已经使用过“调和程序”的背景下，基建还能在年内立法吗?","content":"<p><b>This article comes from Wang Han's theory of macro, and the author is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Wang Han, chief macro analyst.</b></p><p><b>Summary of Contents</b></p><p>On March 4, 2021, Biden met with eight members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a follow-up to a Feb. 11 meeting with senators on infrastructure. After the successful introduction of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, infrastructure may become Biden's next policy focus. What does Biden's infrastructure package include? What process is required for legislation? Under the background that the Democratic Party has used the \"reconciliation process\" to promote the 1.9 trillion stimulus legislation, can infrastructure legislation still be legislated within the year? We will explain them one by one in this article.</p><p>Main content of infrastructure: 2 trillion yuan-restoration of traditional facilities + upgrading of clean energy industry. Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers the restoration of traditional old infrastructure and the upgrading of clean energy in industries such as automobiles, electric power, and construction. The budget of the infrastructure plan package is approximately US $2 trillion.</p><p>Legislative process: Both houses need a simple majority to pass. Generally speaking, most bills in the United States only need to abide by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the U.S. Congress, that is, they can be passed as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree.</p><p>Main legislative obstacles: it may be necessary to bypass the obstacles of Senate proceedings through reconciliation procedures. It should be noted that minority senators can prevent the voting by extending the speaking time indefinitely by \"filibuster\", and the debate can only be terminated when 60 votes are reached. The \"reconciliation procedure\" can effectively circumvent the obstacles of proceedings, and only a simple majority consent is needed to pass the bill. The recently passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus is to use the \"reconciliation procedure\" to successfully legislate against the background of zero vote support from Republican lawmakers.</p><p>Outlook for infrastructure advancement: The ideal scenario is lowered and the program can be restarted as early as October 1. Judging from historical experience, the United States can use the reconciliation process at most once per fiscal year. Considering that the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill enables the \"reconciliation process\" in the fiscal year 2021 budget resolution, infrastructure legislation wants to enable the \"reconciliation process\" again. It needs to wait until the U.S. fiscal year 2022 (October 1, 2021) at the earliest.</p><p>Why Biden is urgent: There are variables in whether the \"Blue Sweep\" can be maintained after the change of Congress in 2022. Considering that the U.S. Congress will usher in another mid-term election in 2022 (see \"Everything You Need to Know About the U.S. Mid-term Elections\" for details), there are still variables as to whether the Democratic Party can maintain the current majority seats in both houses. From this perspective, Biden has a strong incentive to advance major legislation as soon as possible before then. From this perspective, it can be understood that Biden is so urgent to advance the infrastructure plan.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Q1: What does Biden's infrastructure include?</p><p>A1: Traditional infrastructure repair + clean energy industry upgrading, with a package budget of approximately US $2 trillion.</p><p>After the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan is passed, the Biden administration's next policy focus may shift to infrastructure. According to the latest American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rating of the state of infrastructure in the United States, the state of infrastructure in the United States was \"C-\" in 2021, with 11 of the 17 classification categories falling under the \"D\" rating. Therefore, the problem of aging infrastructure in the United States needs to be solved urgently, and infrastructure may be the next important issue for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers infrastructure repair and clean energy upgrades in automobile, electric power, construction and other industries. The package of infrastructure plans has a budget of approximately 2 trillion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6a471639acda663d49c59352b36e03f9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q2: What procedures are required in Congress to pass the infrastructure plan?</p><p>A2: There is a high probability that the reconciliation procedure needs to be passed to bypass the obstacles of proceedings.</p><p>According to the provisions of the U.S. Constitution, except for impeachment, removal of members of Congress, amendment of the Constitution, overthrow of the president's veto power, etc., most bills in the United States only need to abide by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the U.S. Congress, that is, as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree, they can be passed.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/41a6bf6ec78a47b26e03fe7b8fbc9537.jpg\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, since the Senate has no limit on the time for discussion, members can prevent the voting by extending the speaking time indefinitely, and only three-fifths of the vote (60 votes) can the debate be terminated. This system is called \"filibuster\". In recent years, obstruction of deliberation has been used more and more times in Congress, and the last Congress (116th session) used obstruction of deliberation more than 300 times.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3ff2fbb28177d30f8842ccdc03d21639.jpg\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"reconciliation procedure\" can effectively bypass the obstacles of proceedings, limit the debate time in the Senate to 20 hours, and only require a simple majority to pass the bill. From a process point of view, the process of the reconciliation process is not complicated, so using the reconciliation process to pass the infrastructure plan may be the optimal solution for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the results of the just-passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus vote, the \"reconciliation procedure\" has also played an important role. In the Senate vote, all Democrats passed it, but all Republicans opposed it. The fiscal stimulus bill relies on the principle of simple majority approval stipulated in the \"reconciliation procedure\", and it can be successfully legislated.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c83412fed1839371a5859ac83f352d74.jpg\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/025f2586e9685b8635386adf28a7e514.jpg\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1577546503e46a36f098350d530bb013.jpg\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the reconciliation procedure is used on the premise that the bill abides by the Byrd Rule. During the Senate's discussion of a bill containing reconciliation procedures, any member has the right to propose that the bill violates the \"Bird Rule\" and raise procedural objections. After that, the deliberator will rule on the proposal, which can also be rejected by the vote of more than 60 senators. The \"Byrd Rule\" stipulates that the reconciliation procedure bill shall not include the following scenarios:</p><p>Budget proposals for reconciliation procedures do not alter expenditure or income</p><p>Changes in expenditures or revenues are inconsistent with the \"reconciliation directive\"</p><p>Submission of reconciliation resolutions outside the jurisdiction of the Commission</p><p>Changes in expenditure or income are merely incidental to non-budgetary components of that provision</p><p>Budget resolution increases the deficit beyond the provision of reconciliation procedure (usually ten years)</p><p>The budget resolution involves amending social security</p><p>Apart from procedural restrictions, there is no precedent for the reconciliation procedure to be used in infrastructure projects. The use requirement of the \"reconciliation procedure\" is Mandatory Spending (i.e. necessary expenditure), which mainly includes social security, medical insurance, medical assistance, income support, etc. Infrastructure expenditure is not explicitly included. There is no precedent in history for using the \"reconciliation procedure\" to pass the infrastructure bill.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8bd426573ce029f44d937d8e1f88028c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q3: Can reconciliation be used again this year?</p><p>A3: It can be used again after October 1, 2021.</p><p>In principle, Congress can use the reconciliation bill at most three times per fiscal year, covering the topics of revenue, expenditure and federal debt limit, and each topic can only be used once. However, since bills usually involve more than one topic, historical experience shows that the reconciliation procedure has been used at most once per fiscal year.</p><p>However, the division of financial years in the United States does not start on January 1, but on October 1, so October 1, 2021 is the beginning of fiscal year 2022. Therefore, the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus passed in March 2021 will not occupy the reconciliation process quota for fiscal year 2022. In principle, after October 1, 2021, the reconciliation program can be used again.</p><p>Historically, the reconciliation procedure was also successfully used twice in 2017. At the beginning of 2017, the Trump administration tried to pass the bill to repeal Obamacare through the reconciliation process; In December 2017, the Trump administration once again used the reconciliation process and successfully introduced the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.</p><p>Considering the current \"blue sweep\" situation of the Biden administration, if it wants to maximize political demands before the 2022 congressional general election, the Biden administration will most likely propose an infrastructure plan as soon as possible. Therefore, if it tries to advance the infrastructure plan through the reconciliation process, the Biden administration may submit the infrastructure plan to Congress as early as October this year.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Biden's infrastructure expected to be passed within the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Biden's infrastructure expected to be passed within the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-14 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from Wang Han's theory of macro, and the author is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Wang Han, chief macro analyst.</b></p><p><b>Summary of Contents</b></p><p>On March 4, 2021, Biden met with eight members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a follow-up to a Feb. 11 meeting with senators on infrastructure. After the successful introduction of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, infrastructure may become Biden's next policy focus. What does Biden's infrastructure package include? What process is required for legislation? Under the background that the Democratic Party has used the \"reconciliation process\" to promote the 1.9 trillion stimulus legislation, can infrastructure legislation still be legislated within the year? We will explain them one by one in this article.</p><p>Main content of infrastructure: 2 trillion yuan-restoration of traditional facilities + upgrading of clean energy industry. Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers the restoration of traditional old infrastructure and the upgrading of clean energy in industries such as automobiles, electric power, and construction. The budget of the infrastructure plan package is approximately US $2 trillion.</p><p>Legislative process: Both houses need a simple majority to pass. Generally speaking, most bills in the United States only need to abide by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the U.S. Congress, that is, they can be passed as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree.</p><p>Main legislative obstacles: it may be necessary to bypass the obstacles of Senate proceedings through reconciliation procedures. It should be noted that minority senators can prevent the voting by extending the speaking time indefinitely by \"filibuster\", and the debate can only be terminated when 60 votes are reached. The \"reconciliation procedure\" can effectively circumvent the obstacles of proceedings, and only a simple majority consent is needed to pass the bill. The recently passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus is to use the \"reconciliation procedure\" to successfully legislate against the background of zero vote support from Republican lawmakers.</p><p>Outlook for infrastructure advancement: The ideal scenario is lowered and the program can be restarted as early as October 1. Judging from historical experience, the United States can use the reconciliation process at most once per fiscal year. Considering that the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill enables the \"reconciliation process\" in the fiscal year 2021 budget resolution, infrastructure legislation wants to enable the \"reconciliation process\" again. It needs to wait until the U.S. fiscal year 2022 (October 1, 2021) at the earliest.</p><p>Why Biden is urgent: There are variables in whether the \"Blue Sweep\" can be maintained after the change of Congress in 2022. Considering that the U.S. Congress will usher in another mid-term election in 2022 (see \"Everything You Need to Know About the U.S. Mid-term Elections\" for details), there are still variables as to whether the Democratic Party can maintain the current majority seats in both houses. From this perspective, Biden has a strong incentive to advance major legislation as soon as possible before then. From this perspective, it can be understood that Biden is so urgent to advance the infrastructure plan.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Q1: What does Biden's infrastructure include?</p><p>A1: Traditional infrastructure repair + clean energy industry upgrading, with a package budget of approximately US $2 trillion.</p><p>After the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan is passed, the Biden administration's next policy focus may shift to infrastructure. According to the latest American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rating of the state of infrastructure in the United States, the state of infrastructure in the United States was \"C-\" in 2021, with 11 of the 17 classification categories falling under the \"D\" rating. Therefore, the problem of aging infrastructure in the United States needs to be solved urgently, and infrastructure may be the next important issue for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers infrastructure repair and clean energy upgrades in automobile, electric power, construction and other industries. The package of infrastructure plans has a budget of approximately 2 trillion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6a471639acda663d49c59352b36e03f9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q2: What procedures are required in Congress to pass the infrastructure plan?</p><p>A2: There is a high probability that the reconciliation procedure needs to be passed to bypass the obstacles of proceedings.</p><p>According to the provisions of the U.S. Constitution, except for impeachment, removal of members of Congress, amendment of the Constitution, overthrow of the president's veto power, etc., most bills in the United States only need to abide by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the U.S. Congress, that is, as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree, they can be passed.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/41a6bf6ec78a47b26e03fe7b8fbc9537.jpg\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, since the Senate has no limit on the time for discussion, members can prevent the voting by extending the speaking time indefinitely, and only three-fifths of the vote (60 votes) can the debate be terminated. This system is called \"filibuster\". In recent years, obstruction of deliberation has been used more and more times in Congress, and the last Congress (116th session) used obstruction of deliberation more than 300 times.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3ff2fbb28177d30f8842ccdc03d21639.jpg\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"reconciliation procedure\" can effectively bypass the obstacles of proceedings, limit the debate time in the Senate to 20 hours, and only require a simple majority to pass the bill. From a process point of view, the process of the reconciliation process is not complicated, so using the reconciliation process to pass the infrastructure plan may be the optimal solution for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the results of the just-passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus vote, the \"reconciliation procedure\" has also played an important role. In the Senate vote, all Democrats passed it, but all Republicans opposed it. The fiscal stimulus bill relies on the principle of simple majority approval stipulated in the \"reconciliation procedure\", and it can be successfully legislated.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c83412fed1839371a5859ac83f352d74.jpg\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/025f2586e9685b8635386adf28a7e514.jpg\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1577546503e46a36f098350d530bb013.jpg\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the reconciliation procedure is used on the premise that the bill abides by the Byrd Rule. During the Senate's discussion of a bill containing reconciliation procedures, any member has the right to propose that the bill violates the \"Bird Rule\" and raise procedural objections. After that, the deliberator will rule on the proposal, which can also be rejected by the vote of more than 60 senators. The \"Byrd Rule\" stipulates that the reconciliation procedure bill shall not include the following scenarios:</p><p>Budget proposals for reconciliation procedures do not alter expenditure or income</p><p>Changes in expenditures or revenues are inconsistent with the \"reconciliation directive\"</p><p>Submission of reconciliation resolutions outside the jurisdiction of the Commission</p><p>Changes in expenditure or income are merely incidental to non-budgetary components of that provision</p><p>Budget resolution increases the deficit beyond the provision of reconciliation procedure (usually ten years)</p><p>The budget resolution involves amending social security</p><p>Apart from procedural restrictions, there is no precedent for the reconciliation procedure to be used in infrastructure projects. The use requirement of the \"reconciliation procedure\" is Mandatory Spending (i.e. necessary expenditure), which mainly includes social security, medical insurance, medical assistance, income support, etc. Infrastructure expenditure is not explicitly included. There is no precedent in history for using the \"reconciliation procedure\" to pass the infrastructure bill.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8bd426573ce029f44d937d8e1f88028c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q3: Can reconciliation be used again this year?</p><p>A3: It can be used again after October 1, 2021.</p><p>In principle, Congress can use the reconciliation bill at most three times per fiscal year, covering the topics of revenue, expenditure and federal debt limit, and each topic can only be used once. However, since bills usually involve more than one topic, historical experience shows that the reconciliation procedure has been used at most once per fiscal year.</p><p>However, the division of financial years in the United States does not start on January 1, but on October 1, so October 1, 2021 is the beginning of fiscal year 2022. Therefore, the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus passed in March 2021 will not occupy the reconciliation process quota for fiscal year 2022. In principle, after October 1, 2021, the reconciliation program can be used again.</p><p>Historically, the reconciliation procedure was also successfully used twice in 2017. At the beginning of 2017, the Trump administration tried to pass the bill to repeal Obamacare through the reconciliation process; In December 2017, the Trump administration once again used the reconciliation process and successfully introduced the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.</p><p>Considering the current \"blue sweep\" situation of the Biden administration, if it wants to maximize political demands before the 2022 congressional general election, the Biden administration will most likely propose an infrastructure plan as soon as possible. Therefore, if it tries to advance the infrastructure plan through the reconciliation process, the Biden administration may submit the infrastructure plan to Congress as early as October this year.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426877.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210314/20210314111415_39549.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"CAT":"卡特彼勒"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426877.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2119921993","content_text":"本文来自 王涵论宏观，作者为兴业证券宏观首席分析师王涵。内容摘要2021年3月4日，拜登会见了众议院运输和基础设施委员会的八名成员，这是2月11日与参议员就基础设施举行会议的后续行动。1.9万亿财政刺激法案成功推出后，基建可能将成为拜登的下一个政策重点。拜登的一揽子基建计划包括哪些内容?立法需要什么流程?在民主党已经使用“调和程序”推进1.9万亿刺激立法的背景下，基建还能在年内立法吗?我们将在本文中一一解读。基建主要内容：2万亿——传统设施修复+清洁能源产业升级。从拜登政府初步提出的基建计划来看，方案主要涵盖了传统老旧的基础设施修复，汽车、电力、建筑等行业的清洁能源升级，一揽子基建计划预算约为2万亿美元。立法国会流程：参众两院均需简单多数即可通过。一般来说，美国的大多数法案在美国国会只需要遵守“简单多数”通过的原则，即只要一半以上的国会议员同意就可通过。立法主要障碍：或需通过调和程序绕开参议院议事阻碍。需要注意的是，少数党参议员可以通过“议事阻碍”(filibuster)无限延长发言时间来阻止投票的进行，而只有达到60票才可以终止辩论。“调和程序”(reconciliation)能够有效绕开议事阻碍，只需要简单多数同意即可通过法案。近期通过的1.9万亿财政刺激就是使用“调和程序”，在共和党议员零票支持的背景下顺利立法。基建推进展望：理想情景下调和程序最早能在10月1日再次启用。历史经验来看，美国每个财年最多能使用一次调和程序，考虑到1.9万亿刺激法案是在2021年财年预算决议中启用“调和程序”，基建立法想再次启用“调和程序”，最早需要等到美国2022财年(2021年10月1日)。拜登缘何急迫：2022年国会换届后能否维持“Blue Sweep”存在变数。考虑到2022年美国国会将迎来再次的中期选举(详参《关于美国中期选举你需要知道的一切》)，民主党能否维持当前两院多数党席位，仍然存在变数。从这个角度而言，拜登有极强的动力在此之前尽快推进重大立法，从这个角度可以理解拜登如此紧迫地推进基建方案。风险提示：美国疫情不确定性，政策变化超预期。正文Q1：拜登基建内容包括什么?A1：传统基础设施修复+清洁能源产业升级，一揽子预算约2万亿美元。1.9万亿财政刺激计划通过后，拜登政府下一步的政策重心可能会转移到基建。根据美国土木工程师协会(ASCE)对美国基础设施状况的最新评级，美国2021年基础设施状况为“C-”，17个分类类别中，有11个类别属于“D”级。因此，美国基础设施老化的问题亟待解决，基建可能是拜登政府的下一个重要议题。从拜登政府初步提出的基建计划来看，方案主要涵盖了基础设施修复，汽车、电力、建筑等行业的清洁能源升级，一揽子基建计划预算约为2万亿。Q2：基建计划的通过需要国会什么程序?A2：大概率需要通过调和程序以绕开议事阻碍。根据美国宪法规定，除了弹劾、除名国会成员、修改宪法、推翻总统否决权等情况，美国的大多数法案在美国国会只需要遵守“简单多数”通过的原则，即只要一半以上的国会议员同意就可通过。然而由于参议院对讨论的时间没有限制，议员可以通过无限延长发言时间来阻止投票的进行，而只有达到五分之三同意(60票)才可以终止辩论，这种制度被称为“议事阻碍”(filibuster)。近些年来，议事阻碍被使用在国会的次数越来越多，上一届国会(116届)使用议事阻碍的次数达到了300多次。“调和程序”(reconciliation)能够有效绕开议事阻碍，将参议院的辩论时间限制在20小时之内，且只需要简单多数同意即可通过法案。从流程上来看，调和程序的流程并不复杂，因此使用调和程序通过基建计划可能为拜登政府的最优解。从刚刚通过的1.9万亿财政刺激投票结果来看，“调和程序”也发挥了重要作用。参议院投票中，民主党全员通过，但共和党全员反对。财政刺激的议案依靠“调和程序”规定的简单多数通过原则，得以顺利立法。然而，调和程序使用的前提是议案遵守“伯德规则”。在参议院对包含调和程序的议案讨论过程中，任何议员都有权提出该议案违反“伯德规则”，提出程序性反对。之后由议事官对该提议进行裁定，该裁定也可由60名以上的参议员投票进行否决。“伯德规则”规定调和程序议案不得包括以下情景：调和程序的预算提案不改变支出或收入支出或收入的改变与“调和指令”中不符在委员会管辖范围外提交调和决议支出或收入变化仅仅是该经费的非预算组成部分所附带的预算决议中赤字增加到超出调和程序的规定(通常为十年)预算决议中涉及修改社会保障除了程序上的限制外，调和程序并未有在基建计划上使用的先例。“调和程序”的使用要求是Mandatory Spending(即必要支出)，这主要包含社保、医保、医疗救助、收入支持等，基建支出并未有明确包含在内。历史上也并未有使用“调和程序”通过基建法案的先例。Q3：调和程序(reconciliation)今年还能再用吗?A3：2021年10月1日之后可以再用。原则上来说，国会每个财年最多使用三次调和法案，涉及的主题分别为收入、支出和联邦债务限额，每一个主题分别只能使用一次。但是由于通常来说议案会涉及不止一个主题，所以历史经验来看每个财年调和程序最多使用了一次。然而，美国财经年度的划分并不是从1月1日开始，而是10月1日，所以2021年10月1日为2022财年的开始。因此，2021年3月通过的1.9万亿财政刺激并不会占用2022财年的调和程序额度。原则上来说，2021年10月1日之后，调和程序还可以再次使用。历史上来看，2017年也成功使用了两次调和程序。2017年初，特朗普政府试图通过调和程序来通过废除奥巴马医改的法案;2017年12月，特朗普政府再次使用调和程序并成功推出了《减税和就业法》。考虑到拜登政府目前“blue sweep”的局面，想要在2022年国会换届选举之前实现政治诉求的最大化，拜登政府大概率会尽早对基建计划进行提案。因此，如果试图通过调和程序来推进基建计划，拜登政府可能会在最早今年10月将基建计划提交国会。风险提示：美国疫情不确定性，政策变化超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322036501,"gmtCreate":1615731384603,"gmtModify":1704786006880,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322036501","repostId":"2119799346","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321424379,"gmtCreate":1615464494191,"gmtModify":1704783097590,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321424379","repostId":"1164132586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164132586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615463328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164132586?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-11 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tianfeng Macro: Looking at the price increase space from the mismatch between supply and demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164132586","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"2021年1月美国制造业产能利用率已从上年4月的历史最低点60.5%恢复至75.2%，同比下滑0.5%，基本回到了正常水平；但供需错配的结构性问题仍然明显，工业品价格出现了二轮上涨。为了厘清哪些行业内","content":"<p>In January 2021, the U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization rate has recovered from the historical low of 60.5% in April last year to 75.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, basically returning to normal levels; However, the structural problem of mismatch between supply and demand is still obvious, and the price of industrial products has risen for a second round. In order to clarify which industries have stronger endogenous price increase momentum, we measure the mismatch between supply and demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry from two perspectives: capacity utilization and inventory-to-shipment ratio. The conclusion is that there is a serious mismatch between supply and demand in industries such as petroleum coking, textiles, plastics and rubber, non-metallic minerals and electrical equipment, and there is more room for price increases.<b>1. The mismatch between supply and demand drives the rapid rise in industrial product prices</b></p><p><b>In 2020, COVID-19 pandemic has caused great disturbances to global industrial production, and the gap between supply and demand has driven commodities to \"rise\".</b>Taking the United States as an example, the production capacity of the U.S. manufacturing industry has recovered slowly due to the impact of the epidemic, while the purchasing power of residents has benefited from the government's fiscal transfer. On the one hand, the mismatch between supply and demand caused the inventory of finished goods to be rapidly removed. In September, the inventory growth rate dropped to-4.6%, a record low since the subprime mortgage crisis; On the other hand, it also drove the U.S. PPI to rise rapidly, returning to positive growth at the end of last year.</p><p><b>In January 2021, the U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization rate has recovered from a historical low of 60.5% in April last year to 75.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, basically returning to normal levels; However, the structural problem of mismatch between supply and demand is still obvious, and the price of industrial products has risen for a second round.</b>There are two main reasons behind this round of price increases: First, the overseas epidemic rebounded for the second time in the fourth quarter, the recovery slope of the U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization rate slowed down, and the gap between supply and demand widened again; Second, the overseas supply of upstream raw materials such as crude oil has shrunk, but demand has rebounded rapidly driven by vaccination and the restart of the service industry. Prices have risen rapidly, and cost pressures have pushed up terminal prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bef8dbc5ea3ffd191e0291b83a39f6a\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In order to clarify which industries have stronger endogenous price increase momentum, we measure the mismatch between supply and demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry from two perspectives: capacity utilization and inventory-to-shipment ratio.</b>Judging from historical data, the rebound in capacity utilization from low levels and the decline in inventory-to-shipment ratios from high levels often correspond to the strengthening of industrial product prices. The mismatch between supply and demand in industries with the above characteristics is obvious, and there is more room for price increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8e15fd35a3add066562a10d931f817\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Which industries are slow to recover supply?</b></p><p><b>In January 2021, U.S. manufacturing output fell by 0.8% year-on-year, of which non-durable goods output fell by 0.2% year-on-year, and durable goods output fell by 1.4% year-on-year. The difference between the two mainly comes from strong consumer demand.</b></p><p><b>For non-durable goods,</b>The production conditions of food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, leather, textiles, plastics and rubber, and chemicals benefiting from pharmaceutical demand have basically returned to pre-epidemic levels. The production conditions of petroleum processing and coking have not performed well due to abnormal weather. The production conditions of printing, textiles, clothing and papermaking industries are still poor.</p><p><b>Durable goods,</b>The production of computer and electronic products, and transportation equipment industries has recovered rapidly, while the decline in furniture production is still relatively large. There is still room for recovery in the output of midstream and upstream industries such as primary metals, non-metallic mineral products, metal products, machinery manufacturing, and electrical equipment.</p><p><b>Combined with the capacity utilization rate and output, the industries with poor production conditions at present and great room for improvement in the future mainly include petroleum processing, printing, plastics and rubber, papermaking, and textiles for non-durable goods, furniture, and non-metallic minerals for durable goods, metal products, and electrical equipment.</b>In addition, the output of industries such as clothing, primary metals and machinery has not yet returned to pre-epidemic levels, but the capacity utilization rate is no longer low, indicating that the industry share has declined, and some demand in the future may rely on external supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0892a6f34763b2b4510089f1e40674c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"1168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Which industries have strong demand recovery?</b></p><p><b>Judging from the latest data, most industries in the U.S. manufacturing industry have entered the replenishment stage.</b></p><p>among<b>Industries that actively replenish inventories include</b>Wood products, food, textiles, textiles, leather, papermaking in the consumer industry chain, and primary metals, metal products, computers and peripheral equipment, automobiles, petroleum processing and coking, chemicals and rubber and plastics in the industrial industry chain.<b>Industries that are still passively destocking include</b>Non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment and beverage tobacco. The current demand in these industries is relatively strong, and the gap between supply and demand has driven prices to rise significantly.</p><p><b>Industries with room for improvement in demand at present (the inventory-to-shipment ratio is declining and has a high quantile) include aerospace and other transportation equipment, petroleum processing, electrical equipment and textiles. In addition, there is also room for improvement in the demand of primary metals, non-metallic minerals, textiles, plastics and rubber industries.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacb7306ae40477bcf9d119f7cdc057a\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"1074\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Summary: Five industries with the highest endogenous driving force for price increases</b></p><p><b>Based on the above two dimensions of supply and demand, we judge that the mismatch between supply and demand in the following industries is relatively serious, and the endogenous driving force for current price increases is stronger. In the future, with the recovery of capacity utilization and the decline of inventory-to-shipment ratio, the industry's shipment price will further rise, but the price increase momentum may gradually weaken.</b></p><p><b>(1) Petroleum coking.</b>Industry supply has recovered slowly due to extremely cold weather, while demand is more certain to recover driven by the opening of the service industry and U.S. fiscal stimulus. OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2021. The room for subsequent industry price increases largely depends on the recovery of U.S. shale oil production and the sustainability of OPEC production cuts.</p><p><b>(2) Textile.</b>In January, the industry's capacity utilization rate was 71.3%, which is still far behind the 76.8% in the same period last year, and the supply is tight. In 2021, the global clothing market will further recover, and industry demand is expected to increase. In addition to supply and demand factors, relatively high oil prices will also support the rise in chemical fiber prices.</p><p><b>(3) Plastic rubber.</b>In January, the industry's capacity utilization rate has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, but the supply is still low compared with the strong demand for automobile tires. There is room for further decline in the inventory-to-shipment ratio, and prices still have upward momentum.</p><p><b>(4) Non-metallic minerals.</b>On the supply side, the industry's capacity utilization rate in January was 65.7%, corresponding to a quantile of 0.31; On the demand side, in the short to medium term, the U.S. real estate market will continue to replenish its inventory driven by low interest rates, high demand, low inventory and fiscal stimulus, and real estate investment will continue to be hot. Under the mismatch between supply and demand, the industry has room for further price increases.</p><p><b>(5) Electrical equipment, appliances and components.</b>The industry mainly includes lighting equipment, household appliances and electrical equipment components (such as generators), etc. On the one hand, demand benefits from the post-cycle boom of real estate, and on the other hand, it also benefits from the promotion of manufacturing investment driven by the accelerated restart of global production. At present, the downward slope of the industry's inventory-to-shipment ratio is steep, the inventory growth rate remains low, the gap between supply and demand has not yet eased, and prices are expected to rise further.</p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Macro: Looking at the price increase space from the mismatch between supply and demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTianfeng Macro: Looking at the price increase space from the mismatch between supply and demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪涛宏观笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-11 19:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In January 2021, the U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization rate has recovered from the historical low of 60.5% in April last year to 75.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, basically returning to normal levels; However, the structural problem of mismatch between supply and demand is still obvious, and the price of industrial products has risen for a second round. In order to clarify which industries have stronger endogenous price increase momentum, we measure the mismatch between supply and demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry from two perspectives: capacity utilization and inventory-to-shipment ratio. The conclusion is that there is a serious mismatch between supply and demand in industries such as petroleum coking, textiles, plastics and rubber, non-metallic minerals and electrical equipment, and there is more room for price increases.<b>1. The mismatch between supply and demand drives the rapid rise in industrial product prices</b></p><p><b>In 2020, COVID-19 pandemic has caused great disturbances to global industrial production, and the gap between supply and demand has driven commodities to \"rise\".</b>Taking the United States as an example, the production capacity of the U.S. manufacturing industry has recovered slowly due to the impact of the epidemic, while the purchasing power of residents has benefited from the government's fiscal transfer. On the one hand, the mismatch between supply and demand caused the inventory of finished goods to be rapidly removed. In September, the inventory growth rate dropped to-4.6%, a record low since the subprime mortgage crisis; On the other hand, it also drove the U.S. PPI to rise rapidly, returning to positive growth at the end of last year.</p><p><b>In January 2021, the U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization rate has recovered from a historical low of 60.5% in April last year to 75.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, basically returning to normal levels; However, the structural problem of mismatch between supply and demand is still obvious, and the price of industrial products has risen for a second round.</b>There are two main reasons behind this round of price increases: First, the overseas epidemic rebounded for the second time in the fourth quarter, the recovery slope of the U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization rate slowed down, and the gap between supply and demand widened again; Second, the overseas supply of upstream raw materials such as crude oil has shrunk, but demand has rebounded rapidly driven by vaccination and the restart of the service industry. Prices have risen rapidly, and cost pressures have pushed up terminal prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bef8dbc5ea3ffd191e0291b83a39f6a\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In order to clarify which industries have stronger endogenous price increase momentum, we measure the mismatch between supply and demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry from two perspectives: capacity utilization and inventory-to-shipment ratio.</b>Judging from historical data, the rebound in capacity utilization from low levels and the decline in inventory-to-shipment ratios from high levels often correspond to the strengthening of industrial product prices. The mismatch between supply and demand in industries with the above characteristics is obvious, and there is more room for price increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8e15fd35a3add066562a10d931f817\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Which industries are slow to recover supply?</b></p><p><b>In January 2021, U.S. manufacturing output fell by 0.8% year-on-year, of which non-durable goods output fell by 0.2% year-on-year, and durable goods output fell by 1.4% year-on-year. The difference between the two mainly comes from strong consumer demand.</b></p><p><b>For non-durable goods,</b>The production conditions of food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, leather, textiles, plastics and rubber, and chemicals benefiting from pharmaceutical demand have basically returned to pre-epidemic levels. The production conditions of petroleum processing and coking have not performed well due to abnormal weather. The production conditions of printing, textiles, clothing and papermaking industries are still poor.</p><p><b>Durable goods,</b>The production of computer and electronic products, and transportation equipment industries has recovered rapidly, while the decline in furniture production is still relatively large. There is still room for recovery in the output of midstream and upstream industries such as primary metals, non-metallic mineral products, metal products, machinery manufacturing, and electrical equipment.</p><p><b>Combined with the capacity utilization rate and output, the industries with poor production conditions at present and great room for improvement in the future mainly include petroleum processing, printing, plastics and rubber, papermaking, and textiles for non-durable goods, furniture, and non-metallic minerals for durable goods, metal products, and electrical equipment.</b>In addition, the output of industries such as clothing, primary metals and machinery has not yet returned to pre-epidemic levels, but the capacity utilization rate is no longer low, indicating that the industry share has declined, and some demand in the future may rely on external supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0892a6f34763b2b4510089f1e40674c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"1168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Which industries have strong demand recovery?</b></p><p><b>Judging from the latest data, most industries in the U.S. manufacturing industry have entered the replenishment stage.</b></p><p>among<b>Industries that actively replenish inventories include</b>Wood products, food, textiles, textiles, leather, papermaking in the consumer industry chain, and primary metals, metal products, computers and peripheral equipment, automobiles, petroleum processing and coking, chemicals and rubber and plastics in the industrial industry chain.<b>Industries that are still passively destocking include</b>Non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment and beverage tobacco. The current demand in these industries is relatively strong, and the gap between supply and demand has driven prices to rise significantly.</p><p><b>Industries with room for improvement in demand at present (the inventory-to-shipment ratio is declining and has a high quantile) include aerospace and other transportation equipment, petroleum processing, electrical equipment and textiles. In addition, there is also room for improvement in the demand of primary metals, non-metallic minerals, textiles, plastics and rubber industries.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacb7306ae40477bcf9d119f7cdc057a\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"1074\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Summary: Five industries with the highest endogenous driving force for price increases</b></p><p><b>Based on the above two dimensions of supply and demand, we judge that the mismatch between supply and demand in the following industries is relatively serious, and the endogenous driving force for current price increases is stronger. In the future, with the recovery of capacity utilization and the decline of inventory-to-shipment ratio, the industry's shipment price will further rise, but the price increase momentum may gradually weaken.</b></p><p><b>(1) Petroleum coking.</b>Industry supply has recovered slowly due to extremely cold weather, while demand is more certain to recover driven by the opening of the service industry and U.S. fiscal stimulus. OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2021. The room for subsequent industry price increases largely depends on the recovery of U.S. shale oil production and the sustainability of OPEC production cuts.</p><p><b>(2) Textile.</b>In January, the industry's capacity utilization rate was 71.3%, which is still far behind the 76.8% in the same period last year, and the supply is tight. In 2021, the global clothing market will further recover, and industry demand is expected to increase. In addition to supply and demand factors, relatively high oil prices will also support the rise in chemical fiber prices.</p><p><b>(3) Plastic rubber.</b>In January, the industry's capacity utilization rate has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, but the supply is still low compared with the strong demand for automobile tires. There is room for further decline in the inventory-to-shipment ratio, and prices still have upward momentum.</p><p><b>(4) Non-metallic minerals.</b>On the supply side, the industry's capacity utilization rate in January was 65.7%, corresponding to a quantile of 0.31; On the demand side, in the short to medium term, the U.S. real estate market will continue to replenish its inventory driven by low interest rates, high demand, low inventory and fiscal stimulus, and real estate investment will continue to be hot. Under the mismatch between supply and demand, the industry has room for further price increases.</p><p><b>(5) Electrical equipment, appliances and components.</b>The industry mainly includes lighting equipment, household appliances and electrical equipment components (such as generators), etc. On the one hand, demand benefits from the post-cycle boom of real estate, and on the other hand, it also benefits from the promotion of manufacturing investment driven by the accelerated restart of global production. At present, the downward slope of the industry's inventory-to-shipment ratio is steep, the inventory growth rate remains low, the gap between supply and demand has not yet eased, and prices are expected to rise further.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5-pgwxQBOjBV8scWgJ0gnQ\">雪涛宏观笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5-pgwxQBOjBV8scWgJ0gnQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164132586","content_text":"2021年1月美国制造业产能利用率已从上年4月的历史最低点60.5%恢复至75.2%，同比下滑0.5%，基本回到了正常水平；但供需错配的结构性问题仍然明显，工业品价格出现了二轮上涨。为了厘清哪些行业内生性涨价动力更强，我们从产能利用率和存货出货比两个角度,计量美国制造业的供需错配程度。得到的结论是石油炼焦、纺织、塑料橡胶、非金属矿物和电气设备等行业供需错配比较严重，有更大的涨价空间。\n\n一、供求错配推动工业品价格快速上涨\n2020年新冠疫情对全球工业生产造成了较大扰动，供需缺口推动商品“涨”声一片。以美国为例，美国制造业的生产能力受疫情影响恢复较慢，而居民购买力受益于政府财政转移表现较强。供求错配一方面使得产成品库存快速去化，9月库存增速回落至-4.6%，创出次贷危机以来历史新低；另一方面也带动美国PPI快速走高，去年底重回正增长。\n2021年1月美国制造业产能利用率已从上年4月的历史最低点60.5%恢复至75.2%，同比下滑0.5%，基本回到了正常水平；但供需错配的结构性问题仍然明显，工业品价格出现了二轮上涨。这一轮涨价的背后主要有两个原因：其一，四季度海外疫情二度反弹，美国制造业产能利用率修复斜率放缓，供需缺口再度走阔；其二，原油等上游原材料海外供给收缩但需求在疫苗接种、服务业重启的推动下回升较快，价格快速上涨，成本压力推升了终端价格。\n\n为了厘清哪些行业内生性涨价动力更强，我们从产能利用率和存货出货比两个角度, 计量美国制造业的供需错配程度。从历史数据看，产能利用率低位回升、存货出货比高位回落往往对应着工业品价格的走强。具有上述特征的行业供需错配明显，有更大的涨价空间。\n\n二、哪些行业供给恢复偏慢？\n2021年1月美国制造业产量同比下滑0.8%，其中非耐用品产量同比下滑0.2%，耐用品产量同比下滑1.4%，两者的差异主要来源于较强的居民消费需求。\n非耐用品方面，食品、饮料、烟酒、皮革、纺织品、塑料橡胶和受益于医药需求的化学品生产状况已基本恢复至疫情前水平，石油加工和炼焦生产状况受异常天气影响表现不佳，印刷、纺织、服装和造纸等行业生产状况仍然较差。\n耐用品方面，计算机及电子产品、运输设备两个行业的生产恢复较快，家具产量下滑幅度仍然较大，初级金属、非金属矿物制品、金属制品、机械制造、电气设备等中上游行业产量仍有修复空间。\n结合产能利用率和产量来看，目前生产状况较差且未来有较大改善空间的行业主要有非耐用品类的石油加工、印刷、塑料橡胶、造纸、纺织，耐用品类的家具、非金属矿物、金属制品、电气设备。另外服装、初级金属和机械等行业产量尚未恢复至疫情前水平，但产能利用率已经不低，说明行业份额出现下降，未来部分需求可能依赖外部供给。\n\n三、哪些行业需求恢复较强？\n从最新一期数据看，美国制造业大多数行业已经进入补库阶段。\n其中主动补库的行业包括消费产业链的木制品、食品、纺织、纺织品、皮革、造纸以及工业产业链的初级金属、金属制品、计算机与外围设备、汽车、石油加工炼焦、化学品和橡胶塑料。仍在被动去库的行业包括非金属矿物制品、电气设备和饮料烟草。这些行业当下需求较为旺盛，供需缺口已经带动价格出现了明显上涨。\n目前需求还有改善空间（存货出货比正在下行且分位数较高）的行业包括航天和其他运输设备、石油加工、电气设备和纺织。另外初级金属、非金属矿物、纺织品和塑料橡胶等行业需求也有一定提升空间。\n\n四、总结：涨价内生性动力最高的五个行业\n综合以上供给和需求两个维度，我们判断以下行业供需错配比较严重，当前涨价的内生性动力更强。未来随着产能利用率的回升和存货出货比的下降，行业出货价格将进一步走高，但涨价动力或逐步减弱。\n（1）石油炼焦。行业供给受极寒天气影响恢复缓慢，而需求在服务业开放和美国财政刺激的推动下回升确定性较强，OPEC预计2021年全球石油需求将增加580万桶/日。后续行业价格上涨空间很大程度上取决于美国页岩油产量的恢复情况和OPEC减产的持续性。\n（2）纺织。1月行业产能利用率71.3%，与去年同期的76.8%相比还有较大差距，供给偏紧。而2021年全球服装市场将进一步复苏，行业需求预计有增量。供需因素之外，油价的相对高位也将支撑化纤价格上涨。\n（3）塑料橡胶。1月行业产能利用率已超过疫情前水平，但供给相比汽车轮胎的旺盛需求仍然偏低，存货出货比有进一步下探空间，价格仍有上涨动力。\n（4）非金属矿物。供给面上看，行业1月产能利用率65.7%，对应分位数0.31；需求面上看，中短期美国房地产市场将在低利率、高需求、低库存和财政刺激的推动下继续补库，房地产投资延续火热状态。供需错配之下，行业有进一步涨价空间。\n（5）电气设备、电器及元件。行业主要包含照明设备、家用电器和电气设备组件（比如发电机）等，需求一方面受益于房地产后周期的景气，另一方面也受益于全球生产加速重启对制造业投资的推动。目前行业存货出货比下行斜率陡峭，库存增速维持低位，供需缺口尚未缓和，价格有望进一步走高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329902872,"gmtCreate":1615195689596,"gmtModify":1704779373052,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329902872","repostId":"1125607315","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125607315","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615193170,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125607315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-08 16:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street is hotly discussing this picture: After the continuous sharp drop, why are funds still buying U.S. stocks wildly?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125607315","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"波动性大增、美债收益率飙升，按理说，股市会遭遇抛售。可是，在过去16周中，流入美股的资金达到了创纪录的4360亿美元，这些钱从哪儿来，又投向了哪里？\n\n美国股市的走势，连华尔街都看不懂了。\n在过去的三","content":"<p>With soaring volatility and soaring U.S. bond yields, it stands to reason that the stock market will suffer a sell-off. However, in the past 16 weeks, the inflow of funds into U.S. stocks has reached a record $436 billion. Where did this money come from and where did it go? Even Wall Street can't understand the trend of the U.S. stock market.</p><p>In the past three weeks, U.S. stocks, especially technology stocks, have been hit hard. The Nasdaq index has slipped by 10% in a short period of time, while the S&P index has also suffered a heavy blow.</p><p>Technology leaders are even more bleak: since late January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Shares are down 15%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It lost more than $25 trillion in market capitalization in three weeks, and in less than a month, more than $1.5 trillion of Nasdaq market capitalization was wiped off.</p><p>However, although the recent surge in U.S. Treasury Bond yields has dealt a blow to risky assets, it has been accompanied by a surge in the volatility index VIX and its MOVE index, which reflects the volatility of the bond market.</p><p><b>However, according to the latest report from EPFR, a capital flow monitoring agency, $22.2 billion in new funds flowed into U.S. stocks last week, after a huge inflow of $46.2 billion in the previous week, the third highest on record. In other words, in the past 16 weeks, Total inflows into U.S. stocks reached $436 billion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8ff8c96bec400aefe6c3d2f80fe46\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Today, this performance in the U.S. stock market is peculiar.</b></p><p>Historically, investors have typically pulled out their money when market volatility has increased. Now, on the contrary, they are putting record amounts of money into the stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief strategist David Kostin also noticed this problem:</p><p>Treasury Bond yields have risen, equities have fallen, and long-term growth stocks have plunged, but equity funds continue to see significant net inflows. Since the beginning of February, inflows into equity mutual funds and ETFs totaled $163 billion. In absolute terms, these five weeks were the highest total inflows in history; Relative to assets, it is the third largest inflow in a decade.</p><p>While recent rises in U.S. Treasury Bond yields have largely weighed on stock prices, inflows into equity funds have accelerated over the past few weeks compared to the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b2791d3c0cce9c7a9828c4e208a0a70\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, weekly inflows into bond funds averaged about $10 billion in February, 50% lower than weekly inflows in January. In addition, money market funds saw net outflows of $34 billion in the past month.</p><p>Where does the money come from?</p><p><b>It is undeniable that U.S. retail investors have now become the main force in this round of chasing U.S. stocks.</b></p><p>How aggressive are retail investors?</p><p>According to data from VandaTrack, which monitors retail traffic in the U.S. market, retail investors snapped up an average of $6.6 billion in U.S. stocks every week, up from the average weekly net purchase of $4.7 billion in 2020.</p><p>Retail investors who shared their trading experiences on trading software such as Robinhood and social media such as Reddit at the beginning of the year have become accustomed to buying dips.</p><p>As Bloomberg pointed out over the weekend, the current market turmoil has not shaken retail investors. They firmly believe that the relief plans of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will continue, and the current stock market crash has not yet made them cut their flesh in tears.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, money from U.S. retail investors poured into U.S. stocks at a record rate in 2020, with an increase of 40%.</p><p>Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said:</p><p><b>Historically, the influx of retail investors into the market is a bad sign and a sign that the stock market has peaked.</b>However, in 2020, when we see retail investors entering the market frantically, we often expect that the market has peaked, but we are often wrong. Where did the money go?</p><p>So much money flowed into the stock market, where did it go?</p><p>Is it to continue to frantically chase those hot-speculated stocks?</p><p><b>But in reality, retail investors are not indiscriminately pouring cash into all stocks. Instead, the most favored investment areas for stock funds are style switching areas, that is, those that benefit from the recovery of economic growth and the control of the epidemic. industry.</b></p><p><b>In other words, the new funds entering the market actually reflect the switch of U.S. stocks from growth stocks to value stocks.</b></p><p>In absolute dollar terms, stock funds traded in the United States have seen large inflows in the past month (reaching $62 billion). Among them, emerging market stocks, value stocks, small stocks and other stock funds have seen the largest inflows, which is consistent with the market's expectations for economic recovery.</p><p>Kostin believes:</p><p>History shows that equity funds typically experience inflows when real interest rates fall. The most favorable backdrop for equity fund inflows over the past decade has been rising real interest rates and inflation rates.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04262993d39e170c96706139be2944d\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street is hotly discussing this picture: After the continuous sharp drop, why are funds still buying U.S. stocks wildly?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street is hotly discussing this picture: After the continuous sharp drop, why are funds still buying U.S. stocks wildly?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 16:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With soaring volatility and soaring U.S. bond yields, it stands to reason that the stock market will suffer a sell-off. However, in the past 16 weeks, the inflow of funds into U.S. stocks has reached a record $436 billion. Where did this money come from and where did it go? Even Wall Street can't understand the trend of the U.S. stock market.</p><p>In the past three weeks, U.S. stocks, especially technology stocks, have been hit hard. The Nasdaq index has slipped by 10% in a short period of time, while the S&P index has also suffered a heavy blow.</p><p>Technology leaders are even more bleak: since late January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Shares are down 15%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It lost more than $25 trillion in market capitalization in three weeks, and in less than a month, more than $1.5 trillion of Nasdaq market capitalization was wiped off.</p><p>However, although the recent surge in U.S. Treasury Bond yields has dealt a blow to risky assets, it has been accompanied by a surge in the volatility index VIX and its MOVE index, which reflects the volatility of the bond market.</p><p><b>However, according to the latest report from EPFR, a capital flow monitoring agency, $22.2 billion in new funds flowed into U.S. stocks last week, after a huge inflow of $46.2 billion in the previous week, the third highest on record. In other words, in the past 16 weeks, Total inflows into U.S. stocks reached $436 billion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8ff8c96bec400aefe6c3d2f80fe46\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Today, this performance in the U.S. stock market is peculiar.</b></p><p>Historically, investors have typically pulled out their money when market volatility has increased. Now, on the contrary, they are putting record amounts of money into the stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief strategist David Kostin also noticed this problem:</p><p>Treasury Bond yields have risen, equities have fallen, and long-term growth stocks have plunged, but equity funds continue to see significant net inflows. Since the beginning of February, inflows into equity mutual funds and ETFs totaled $163 billion. In absolute terms, these five weeks were the highest total inflows in history; Relative to assets, it is the third largest inflow in a decade.</p><p>While recent rises in U.S. Treasury Bond yields have largely weighed on stock prices, inflows into equity funds have accelerated over the past few weeks compared to the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b2791d3c0cce9c7a9828c4e208a0a70\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, weekly inflows into bond funds averaged about $10 billion in February, 50% lower than weekly inflows in January. In addition, money market funds saw net outflows of $34 billion in the past month.</p><p>Where does the money come from?</p><p><b>It is undeniable that U.S. retail investors have now become the main force in this round of chasing U.S. stocks.</b></p><p>How aggressive are retail investors?</p><p>According to data from VandaTrack, which monitors retail traffic in the U.S. market, retail investors snapped up an average of $6.6 billion in U.S. stocks every week, up from the average weekly net purchase of $4.7 billion in 2020.</p><p>Retail investors who shared their trading experiences on trading software such as Robinhood and social media such as Reddit at the beginning of the year have become accustomed to buying dips.</p><p>As Bloomberg pointed out over the weekend, the current market turmoil has not shaken retail investors. They firmly believe that the relief plans of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will continue, and the current stock market crash has not yet made them cut their flesh in tears.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, money from U.S. retail investors poured into U.S. stocks at a record rate in 2020, with an increase of 40%.</p><p>Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said:</p><p><b>Historically, the influx of retail investors into the market is a bad sign and a sign that the stock market has peaked.</b>However, in 2020, when we see retail investors entering the market frantically, we often expect that the market has peaked, but we are often wrong. Where did the money go?</p><p>So much money flowed into the stock market, where did it go?</p><p>Is it to continue to frantically chase those hot-speculated stocks?</p><p><b>But in reality, retail investors are not indiscriminately pouring cash into all stocks. Instead, the most favored investment areas for stock funds are style switching areas, that is, those that benefit from the recovery of economic growth and the control of the epidemic. industry.</b></p><p><b>In other words, the new funds entering the market actually reflect the switch of U.S. stocks from growth stocks to value stocks.</b></p><p>In absolute dollar terms, stock funds traded in the United States have seen large inflows in the past month (reaching $62 billion). Among them, emerging market stocks, value stocks, small stocks and other stock funds have seen the largest inflows, which is consistent with the market's expectations for economic recovery.</p><p>Kostin believes:</p><p>History shows that equity funds typically experience inflows when real interest rates fall. The most favorable backdrop for equity fund inflows over the past decade has been rising real interest rates and inflation rates.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04262993d39e170c96706139be2944d\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622791\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622791","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1125607315","content_text":"波动性大增、美债收益率飙升，按理说，股市会遭遇抛售。可是，在过去16周中，流入美股的资金达到了创纪录的4360亿美元，这些钱从哪儿来，又投向了哪里？\n\n美国股市的走势，连华尔街都看不懂了。\n在过去的三周中，美国股票，尤其是科技股受到重创，纳斯达克指数短时间内累计滑落了10％，而标普指数也遭受了沉重打击。\n科技龙头更是一片惨淡：自一月下旬以来，苹果股价下跌了15％。特斯拉在三周内损失了超过25万亿美元的市值，不到一个月的时间，纳斯达克市值蒸发了超过1.5万亿美元。\n然而，尽管最近美国国债收益率飙升对风险资产造成了打击，同时伴随着波动性指数VIX及其反映债券市场波动性的MOVE指数大涨。\n但根据资金流向监测机构EPFR最新的报告，上周有222亿美元的新资金流入美股，此前一周有462亿美元的巨额资金流入，创下有记录的第三高，换言之，在过去16周中，美股的资金流入总额达到4360亿美元。\n\n如今，美股市场上的这种表现堪称奇特。\n从历史上看，当市场波动性加剧之际，投资者通常会撤出资金。如今却恰恰相反，他们正在把创纪录的资金投入到股市之中。\n高盛首席策略分析师David Kostin也注意到这一问题：\n\n 国债收益率上升，股票下跌，长期增长型股票暴跌，但股票基金继续看到大量的净流入。\n\n自2月初以来，流入股票共同基金和ETF的资金总额为1630亿美元，按绝对值来统计，这五周的流入资金总额为历史最高；相对于资产而言，是十年来的第三大资金流入。\n尽管近期美国国债收益率的上涨在很大程度上打压了股票价格，但与年初相比，过去几周流入股票基金的速度加快了。\n\n相比之下，2月份每周流入债券基金的资金平均约为100亿美元，比1月份的每周资金流入低50％。此外，过去一个月货币市场基金净流出340亿美元。\n钱从哪里来？\n不可否认的是，如今美国散户成为了这一轮追逐美股的主力。\n散户投资者有多积极？\n根据监控美国市场零售流量的VandaTrack的数据，散户投资者每周平均抢购美国股票达66亿美元，高于2020年每周平均净购买47亿美元的水平。\n年初在Robinhood等交易软件以及Reddit等社交媒体上分享交易心得的散户投资者们，已经习惯了逢低买入。\n正如彭博社在周末指出的那样，目前的市场动荡，并没有让散户投资者动摇，他们坚定地认为，美联储和财政部的救济计划仍将继续，目前的股市大跌还没让他们到含泪割肉的时候。\n据彭博社报道，2020年，美国散户的资金以创纪录的速度涌入美国股市，增幅为40％。\nNational Securities的首席市场策略师Art Hogan说：\n\n从历史上看，散户投资者涌入市场是一个坏信号，并且是一个股市见顶的信号。可是，2020年，当我们看到散户疯狂入场的时候，我们每每预计市场已经见顶，但常常是错误的。\n\n钱去了哪儿？\n这么多资金流入股市，都投向了哪里呢？\n难道是继续疯狂追逐那些被热炒的股票吗？\n但是实际上，散户投资者并没有不分青红皂白地向所有股票投入现金，取而代之的是，股票基金最青睐的投资领域是风格切换的领域，也就是那些得益于经济恢复增长和疫情受控的行业。\n换句话说，新进场的资金实际上反映了美股从成长股到价值股的切换。\n以绝对美元计算，过去一个月在美国交易的股票基金出现了大笔资金流入（达到620亿美元）其中，新兴市场股票、价值股、小型股等股票基金出现了最大的流入量，这与市场对经济复苏的预期一致。\nKostin认为：\n\n 历史表明，股票基金通常会在实际利率下降时经历资金流入。在过去的十年中，股票基金流入的最有利背景是实际利率和通胀率都在上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329901505,"gmtCreate":1615195569007,"gmtModify":1704779369653,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329901505","repostId":"1158252333","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158252333","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615195186,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158252333?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-08 17:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Jiaduobao Group plans IPO in Hong Kong this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158252333","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"市场消息：加多宝集团据悉计划今年在香港进行IPO，并在IPO前寻求至少3亿美元的融资。知情人士说，中国非酒精饮料生产商加多宝集团，寻求在潜在的香港IPO前的一轮融资中筹集至少3亿美元。该知情人士表示，","content":"<p>Market news: Jiaduobao Group is reported to plan to conduct an IPO in Hong Kong this year and seek at least US $300 million in financing before the IPO.</p><p>Chinese non-alcoholic beverage producer Jiaduobao Group is seeking to raise at least $300 million in a funding round ahead of a potential Hong Kong IPO, people familiar with the matter said. The person familiar with the matter said that Jiaduobao is working with consultants on pre-IPO financing and has contacted several potential investors. Jiaduobao aims to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as this year, but the timing and scale of the listing have not been finalized. This round of pre-IPO financing is still under consideration, and the details may be adjusted. A representative of Jiaduobao did not immediately respond to comments.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jiaduobao Group plans IPO in Hong Kong this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJiaduobao Group plans IPO in Hong Kong this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-08 17:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Market news: Jiaduobao Group is reported to plan to conduct an IPO in Hong Kong this year and seek at least US $300 million in financing before the IPO.</p><p>Chinese non-alcoholic beverage producer Jiaduobao Group is seeking to raise at least $300 million in a funding round ahead of a potential Hong Kong IPO, people familiar with the matter said. The person familiar with the matter said that Jiaduobao is working with consultants on pre-IPO financing and has contacted several potential investors. Jiaduobao aims to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as this year, but the timing and scale of the listing have not been finalized. This round of pre-IPO financing is still under consideration, and the details may be adjusted. A representative of Jiaduobao did not immediately respond to comments.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809e45cace16ec39a5f6cae19a41e02c","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158252333","content_text":"市场消息：加多宝集团据悉计划今年在香港进行IPO，并在IPO前寻求至少3亿美元的融资。知情人士说，中国非酒精饮料生产商加多宝集团，寻求在潜在的香港IPO前的一轮融资中筹集至少3亿美元。该知情人士表示，加多宝正就IPO前的融资与顾问合作，已接触了数名潜在投资者。加多宝的目标是最早今年在香港交易所上市，但尚未敲定上市的时机和规模。此轮IPO前的融资仍在审议中，细节可能有调整。加多宝的代表未立即回应评论。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367426276,"gmtCreate":1614962046195,"gmtModify":1704777707381,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367426276","repostId":"1195280692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195280692","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614959649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195280692?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Senate Democrats Reach Deal on Unemployment Insurance Extension","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195280692","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国参议院民主党人就延长失业救济金至9月而不是8月29日的提案达成协议，每周救济金为300美元，而不是400美元。如果参议院民主党的新提案被采纳，第一笔10200美元的失业救济金将不会被征税。","content":"<p>U.S. Senate Democrats reached an agreement on a proposal to extend unemployment benefits until September instead of Aug. 29, with weekly benefits of $300 instead of $400.</p><p>If the new Senate Democratic proposal is adopted, the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits will not be taxed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Senate Democrats Reach Deal on 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Senate Democrats Reach Deal on Unemployment Insurance Extension\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 23:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. Senate Democrats reached an agreement on a proposal to extend unemployment benefits until September instead of Aug. 29, with weekly benefits of $300 instead of $400.</p><p>If the new Senate Democratic proposal is adopted, the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits will not be taxed.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ad66c83796c50731ef69a802b644e7","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195280692","content_text":"美国参议院民主党人就延长失业救济金至9月而不是8月29日的提案达成协议，每周救济金为300美元，而不是400美元。如果参议院民主党的新提案被采纳，第一笔10200美元的失业救济金将不会被征税。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":141867934,"gmtCreate":1625848055628,"gmtModify":1703749893583,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Ltd.(TKAT)$</a>????","text":"$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158612959","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954375523,"gmtCreate":1676040679963,"gmtModify":1676042250561,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$&nbsp;</a>How did it become a junk stock again?🤦🏻‍♂️","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$&nbsp;</a>How did it become a junk stock again?🤦🏻‍♂️","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$ How did it become a junk stock again?🤦🏻‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954375523","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179509051,"gmtCreate":1626546388273,"gmtModify":1703761605791,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>?","text":"$Palantir Technologies 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23:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Senate Democrats Reach Deal on Unemployment Insurance Extension","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195280692","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国参议院民主党人就延长失业救济金至9月而不是8月29日的提案达成协议，每周救济金为300美元，而不是400美元。如果参议院民主党的新提案被采纳，第一笔10200美元的失业救济金将不会被征税。","content":"<p>U.S. Senate Democrats reached an agreement on a proposal to extend unemployment benefits until September instead of Aug. 29, with weekly benefits of $300 instead of $400.</p><p>If the new Senate Democratic proposal is adopted, the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits will not be taxed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Senate Democrats Reach Deal on Unemployment Insurance Extension</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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23:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. Senate Democrats reached an agreement on a proposal to extend unemployment benefits until September instead of Aug. 29, with weekly benefits of $300 instead of $400.</p><p>If the new Senate Democratic proposal is adopted, the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits will not be taxed.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ad66c83796c50731ef69a802b644e7","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195280692","content_text":"美国参议院民主党人就延长失业救济金至9月而不是8月29日的提案达成协议，每周救济金为300美元，而不是400美元。如果参议院民主党的新提案被采纳，第一笔10200美元的失业救济金将不会被征税。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146467761,"gmtCreate":1626097172253,"gmtModify":1703753293287,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>???","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146467761","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322036494,"gmtCreate":1615731407018,"gmtModify":1704786007044,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322036494","repostId":"2119921993","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119921993","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1615698793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2119921993?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-14 13:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is Biden's infrastructure expected to be passed within the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119921993","media":"智通财经网","summary":"拜登的一揽子基建计划包括哪些内容?立法需要什么流程?在已经使用过“调和程序”的背景下，基建还能在年内立法吗?","content":"<p><b>This article comes from Wang Han's theory of macro, and the author is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Wang Han, chief macro analyst.</b></p><p><b>Summary of Contents</b></p><p>On March 4, 2021, Biden met with eight members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a follow-up to a Feb. 11 meeting with senators on infrastructure. After the successful introduction of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, infrastructure may become Biden's next policy focus. What does Biden's infrastructure package include? What process is required for legislation? Under the background that the Democratic Party has used the \"reconciliation process\" to promote the 1.9 trillion stimulus legislation, can infrastructure legislation still be legislated within the year? We will explain them one by one in this article.</p><p>Main content of infrastructure: 2 trillion yuan-restoration of traditional facilities + upgrading of clean energy industry. Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers the restoration of traditional old infrastructure and the upgrading of clean energy in industries such as automobiles, electric power, and construction. The budget of the infrastructure plan package is approximately US $2 trillion.</p><p>Legislative process: Both houses need a simple majority to pass. Generally speaking, most bills in the United States only need to abide by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the U.S. Congress, that is, they can be passed as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree.</p><p>Main legislative obstacles: it may be necessary to bypass the obstacles of Senate proceedings through reconciliation procedures. It should be noted that minority senators can prevent the voting by extending the speaking time indefinitely by \"filibuster\", and the debate can only be terminated when 60 votes are reached. The \"reconciliation procedure\" can effectively circumvent the obstacles of proceedings, and only a simple majority consent is needed to pass the bill. The recently passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus is to use the \"reconciliation procedure\" to successfully legislate against the background of zero vote support from Republican lawmakers.</p><p>Outlook for infrastructure advancement: The ideal scenario is lowered and the program can be restarted as early as October 1. Judging from historical experience, the United States can use the reconciliation process at most once per fiscal year. Considering that the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill enables the \"reconciliation process\" in the fiscal year 2021 budget resolution, infrastructure legislation wants to enable the \"reconciliation process\" again. It needs to wait until the U.S. fiscal year 2022 (October 1, 2021) at the earliest.</p><p>Why Biden is urgent: There are variables in whether the \"Blue Sweep\" can be maintained after the change of Congress in 2022. Considering that the U.S. Congress will usher in another mid-term election in 2022 (see \"Everything You Need to Know About the U.S. Mid-term Elections\" for details), there are still variables as to whether the Democratic Party can maintain the current majority seats in both houses. From this perspective, Biden has a strong incentive to advance major legislation as soon as possible before then. From this perspective, it can be understood that Biden is so urgent to advance the infrastructure plan.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Q1: What does Biden's infrastructure include?</p><p>A1: Traditional infrastructure repair + clean energy industry upgrading, with a package budget of approximately US $2 trillion.</p><p>After the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan is passed, the Biden administration's next policy focus may shift to infrastructure. According to the latest American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rating of the state of infrastructure in the United States, the state of infrastructure in the United States was \"C-\" in 2021, with 11 of the 17 classification categories falling under the \"D\" rating. Therefore, the problem of aging infrastructure in the United States needs to be solved urgently, and infrastructure may be the next important issue for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers infrastructure repair and clean energy upgrades in automobile, electric power, construction and other industries. The package of infrastructure plans has a budget of approximately 2 trillion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6a471639acda663d49c59352b36e03f9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q2: What procedures are required in Congress to pass the infrastructure plan?</p><p>A2: There is a high probability that the reconciliation procedure needs to be passed to bypass the obstacles of proceedings.</p><p>According to the provisions of the U.S. Constitution, except for impeachment, removal of members of Congress, amendment of the Constitution, overthrow of the president's veto power, etc., most bills in the United States only need to abide by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the U.S. Congress, that is, as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree, they can be passed.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/41a6bf6ec78a47b26e03fe7b8fbc9537.jpg\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, since the Senate has no limit on the time for discussion, members can prevent the voting by extending the speaking time indefinitely, and only three-fifths of the vote (60 votes) can the debate be terminated. This system is called \"filibuster\". In recent years, obstruction of deliberation has been used more and more times in Congress, and the last Congress (116th session) used obstruction of deliberation more than 300 times.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3ff2fbb28177d30f8842ccdc03d21639.jpg\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"reconciliation procedure\" can effectively bypass the obstacles of proceedings, limit the debate time in the Senate to 20 hours, and only require a simple majority to pass the bill. From a process point of view, the process of the reconciliation process is not complicated, so using the reconciliation process to pass the infrastructure plan may be the optimal solution for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the results of the just-passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus vote, the \"reconciliation procedure\" has also played an important role. In the Senate vote, all Democrats passed it, but all Republicans opposed it. The fiscal stimulus bill relies on the principle of simple majority approval stipulated in the \"reconciliation procedure\", and it can be successfully legislated.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c83412fed1839371a5859ac83f352d74.jpg\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/025f2586e9685b8635386adf28a7e514.jpg\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1577546503e46a36f098350d530bb013.jpg\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the reconciliation procedure is used on the premise that the bill abides by the Byrd Rule. During the Senate's discussion of a bill containing reconciliation procedures, any member has the right to propose that the bill violates the \"Bird Rule\" and raise procedural objections. After that, the deliberator will rule on the proposal, which can also be rejected by the vote of more than 60 senators. The \"Byrd Rule\" stipulates that the reconciliation procedure bill shall not include the following scenarios:</p><p>Budget proposals for reconciliation procedures do not alter expenditure or income</p><p>Changes in expenditures or revenues are inconsistent with the \"reconciliation directive\"</p><p>Submission of reconciliation resolutions outside the jurisdiction of the Commission</p><p>Changes in expenditure or income are merely incidental to non-budgetary components of that provision</p><p>Budget resolution increases the deficit beyond the provision of reconciliation procedure (usually ten years)</p><p>The budget resolution involves amending social security</p><p>Apart from procedural restrictions, there is no precedent for the reconciliation procedure to be used in infrastructure projects. The use requirement of the \"reconciliation procedure\" is Mandatory Spending (i.e. necessary expenditure), which mainly includes social security, medical insurance, medical assistance, income support, etc. Infrastructure expenditure is not explicitly included. There is no precedent in history for using the \"reconciliation procedure\" to pass the infrastructure bill.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8bd426573ce029f44d937d8e1f88028c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q3: Can reconciliation be used again this year?</p><p>A3: It can be used again after October 1, 2021.</p><p>In principle, Congress can use the reconciliation bill at most three times per fiscal year, covering the topics of revenue, expenditure and federal debt limit, and each topic can only be used once. However, since bills usually involve more than one topic, historical experience shows that the reconciliation procedure has been used at most once per fiscal year.</p><p>However, the division of financial years in the United States does not start on January 1, but on October 1, so October 1, 2021 is the beginning of fiscal year 2022. Therefore, the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus passed in March 2021 will not occupy the reconciliation process quota for fiscal year 2022. In principle, after October 1, 2021, the reconciliation program can be used again.</p><p>Historically, the reconciliation procedure was also successfully used twice in 2017. At the beginning of 2017, the Trump administration tried to pass the bill to repeal Obamacare through the reconciliation process; In December 2017, the Trump administration once again used the reconciliation process and successfully introduced the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.</p><p>Considering the current \"blue sweep\" situation of the Biden administration, if it wants to maximize political demands before the 2022 congressional general election, the Biden administration will most likely propose an infrastructure plan as soon as possible. Therefore, if it tries to advance the infrastructure plan through the reconciliation process, the Biden administration may submit the infrastructure plan to Congress as early as October this year.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Biden's infrastructure expected to be passed within the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Biden's infrastructure expected to be passed within the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-14 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from Wang Han's theory of macro, and the author is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Wang Han, chief macro analyst.</b></p><p><b>Summary of Contents</b></p><p>On March 4, 2021, Biden met with eight members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a follow-up to a Feb. 11 meeting with senators on infrastructure. After the successful introduction of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, infrastructure may become Biden's next policy focus. What does Biden's infrastructure package include? What process is required for legislation? Under the background that the Democratic Party has used the \"reconciliation process\" to promote the 1.9 trillion stimulus legislation, can infrastructure legislation still be legislated within the year? We will explain them one by one in this article.</p><p>Main content of infrastructure: 2 trillion yuan-restoration of traditional facilities + upgrading of clean energy industry. Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers the restoration of traditional old infrastructure and the upgrading of clean energy in industries such as automobiles, electric power, and construction. The budget of the infrastructure plan package is approximately US $2 trillion.</p><p>Legislative process: Both houses need a simple majority to pass. Generally speaking, most bills in the United States only need to abide by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the U.S. Congress, that is, they can be passed as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree.</p><p>Main legislative obstacles: it may be necessary to bypass the obstacles of Senate proceedings through reconciliation procedures. It should be noted that minority senators can prevent the voting by extending the speaking time indefinitely by \"filibuster\", and the debate can only be terminated when 60 votes are reached. The \"reconciliation procedure\" can effectively circumvent the obstacles of proceedings, and only a simple majority consent is needed to pass the bill. The recently passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus is to use the \"reconciliation procedure\" to successfully legislate against the background of zero vote support from Republican lawmakers.</p><p>Outlook for infrastructure advancement: The ideal scenario is lowered and the program can be restarted as early as October 1. Judging from historical experience, the United States can use the reconciliation process at most once per fiscal year. Considering that the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill enables the \"reconciliation process\" in the fiscal year 2021 budget resolution, infrastructure legislation wants to enable the \"reconciliation process\" again. It needs to wait until the U.S. fiscal year 2022 (October 1, 2021) at the earliest.</p><p>Why Biden is urgent: There are variables in whether the \"Blue Sweep\" can be maintained after the change of Congress in 2022. Considering that the U.S. Congress will usher in another mid-term election in 2022 (see \"Everything You Need to Know About the U.S. Mid-term Elections\" for details), there are still variables as to whether the Democratic Party can maintain the current majority seats in both houses. From this perspective, Biden has a strong incentive to advance major legislation as soon as possible before then. From this perspective, it can be understood that Biden is so urgent to advance the infrastructure plan.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Q1: What does Biden's infrastructure include?</p><p>A1: Traditional infrastructure repair + clean energy industry upgrading, with a package budget of approximately US $2 trillion.</p><p>After the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan is passed, the Biden administration's next policy focus may shift to infrastructure. According to the latest American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rating of the state of infrastructure in the United States, the state of infrastructure in the United States was \"C-\" in 2021, with 11 of the 17 classification categories falling under the \"D\" rating. Therefore, the problem of aging infrastructure in the United States needs to be solved urgently, and infrastructure may be the next important issue for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers infrastructure repair and clean energy upgrades in automobile, electric power, construction and other industries. The package of infrastructure plans has a budget of approximately 2 trillion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6a471639acda663d49c59352b36e03f9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q2: What procedures are required in Congress to pass the infrastructure plan?</p><p>A2: There is a high probability that the reconciliation procedure needs to be passed to bypass the obstacles of proceedings.</p><p>According to the provisions of the U.S. Constitution, except for impeachment, removal of members of Congress, amendment of the Constitution, overthrow of the president's veto power, etc., most bills in the United States only need to abide by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the U.S. Congress, that is, as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree, they can be passed.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/41a6bf6ec78a47b26e03fe7b8fbc9537.jpg\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, since the Senate has no limit on the time for discussion, members can prevent the voting by extending the speaking time indefinitely, and only three-fifths of the vote (60 votes) can the debate be terminated. This system is called \"filibuster\". In recent years, obstruction of deliberation has been used more and more times in Congress, and the last Congress (116th session) used obstruction of deliberation more than 300 times.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3ff2fbb28177d30f8842ccdc03d21639.jpg\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"reconciliation procedure\" can effectively bypass the obstacles of proceedings, limit the debate time in the Senate to 20 hours, and only require a simple majority to pass the bill. From a process point of view, the process of the reconciliation process is not complicated, so using the reconciliation process to pass the infrastructure plan may be the optimal solution for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the results of the just-passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus vote, the \"reconciliation procedure\" has also played an important role. In the Senate vote, all Democrats passed it, but all Republicans opposed it. The fiscal stimulus bill relies on the principle of simple majority approval stipulated in the \"reconciliation procedure\", and it can be successfully legislated.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c83412fed1839371a5859ac83f352d74.jpg\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/025f2586e9685b8635386adf28a7e514.jpg\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1577546503e46a36f098350d530bb013.jpg\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the reconciliation procedure is used on the premise that the bill abides by the Byrd Rule. During the Senate's discussion of a bill containing reconciliation procedures, any member has the right to propose that the bill violates the \"Bird Rule\" and raise procedural objections. After that, the deliberator will rule on the proposal, which can also be rejected by the vote of more than 60 senators. The \"Byrd Rule\" stipulates that the reconciliation procedure bill shall not include the following scenarios:</p><p>Budget proposals for reconciliation procedures do not alter expenditure or income</p><p>Changes in expenditures or revenues are inconsistent with the \"reconciliation directive\"</p><p>Submission of reconciliation resolutions outside the jurisdiction of the Commission</p><p>Changes in expenditure or income are merely incidental to non-budgetary components of that provision</p><p>Budget resolution increases the deficit beyond the provision of reconciliation procedure (usually ten years)</p><p>The budget resolution involves amending social security</p><p>Apart from procedural restrictions, there is no precedent for the reconciliation procedure to be used in infrastructure projects. The use requirement of the \"reconciliation procedure\" is Mandatory Spending (i.e. necessary expenditure), which mainly includes social security, medical insurance, medical assistance, income support, etc. Infrastructure expenditure is not explicitly included. There is no precedent in history for using the \"reconciliation procedure\" to pass the infrastructure bill.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8bd426573ce029f44d937d8e1f88028c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q3: Can reconciliation be used again this year?</p><p>A3: It can be used again after October 1, 2021.</p><p>In principle, Congress can use the reconciliation bill at most three times per fiscal year, covering the topics of revenue, expenditure and federal debt limit, and each topic can only be used once. However, since bills usually involve more than one topic, historical experience shows that the reconciliation procedure has been used at most once per fiscal year.</p><p>However, the division of financial years in the United States does not start on January 1, but on October 1, so October 1, 2021 is the beginning of fiscal year 2022. Therefore, the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus passed in March 2021 will not occupy the reconciliation process quota for fiscal year 2022. In principle, after October 1, 2021, the reconciliation program can be used again.</p><p>Historically, the reconciliation procedure was also successfully used twice in 2017. At the beginning of 2017, the Trump administration tried to pass the bill to repeal Obamacare through the reconciliation process; In December 2017, the Trump administration once again used the reconciliation process and successfully introduced the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.</p><p>Considering the current \"blue sweep\" situation of the Biden administration, if it wants to maximize political demands before the 2022 congressional general election, the Biden administration will most likely propose an infrastructure plan as soon as possible. Therefore, if it tries to advance the infrastructure plan through the reconciliation process, the Biden administration may submit the infrastructure plan to Congress as early as October this year.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426877.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210314/20210314111415_39549.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"CAT":"卡特彼勒"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426877.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2119921993","content_text":"本文来自 王涵论宏观，作者为兴业证券宏观首席分析师王涵。内容摘要2021年3月4日，拜登会见了众议院运输和基础设施委员会的八名成员，这是2月11日与参议员就基础设施举行会议的后续行动。1.9万亿财政刺激法案成功推出后，基建可能将成为拜登的下一个政策重点。拜登的一揽子基建计划包括哪些内容?立法需要什么流程?在民主党已经使用“调和程序”推进1.9万亿刺激立法的背景下，基建还能在年内立法吗?我们将在本文中一一解读。基建主要内容：2万亿——传统设施修复+清洁能源产业升级。从拜登政府初步提出的基建计划来看，方案主要涵盖了传统老旧的基础设施修复，汽车、电力、建筑等行业的清洁能源升级，一揽子基建计划预算约为2万亿美元。立法国会流程：参众两院均需简单多数即可通过。一般来说，美国的大多数法案在美国国会只需要遵守“简单多数”通过的原则，即只要一半以上的国会议员同意就可通过。立法主要障碍：或需通过调和程序绕开参议院议事阻碍。需要注意的是，少数党参议员可以通过“议事阻碍”(filibuster)无限延长发言时间来阻止投票的进行，而只有达到60票才可以终止辩论。“调和程序”(reconciliation)能够有效绕开议事阻碍，只需要简单多数同意即可通过法案。近期通过的1.9万亿财政刺激就是使用“调和程序”，在共和党议员零票支持的背景下顺利立法。基建推进展望：理想情景下调和程序最早能在10月1日再次启用。历史经验来看，美国每个财年最多能使用一次调和程序，考虑到1.9万亿刺激法案是在2021年财年预算决议中启用“调和程序”，基建立法想再次启用“调和程序”，最早需要等到美国2022财年(2021年10月1日)。拜登缘何急迫：2022年国会换届后能否维持“Blue Sweep”存在变数。考虑到2022年美国国会将迎来再次的中期选举(详参《关于美国中期选举你需要知道的一切》)，民主党能否维持当前两院多数党席位，仍然存在变数。从这个角度而言，拜登有极强的动力在此之前尽快推进重大立法，从这个角度可以理解拜登如此紧迫地推进基建方案。风险提示：美国疫情不确定性，政策变化超预期。正文Q1：拜登基建内容包括什么?A1：传统基础设施修复+清洁能源产业升级，一揽子预算约2万亿美元。1.9万亿财政刺激计划通过后，拜登政府下一步的政策重心可能会转移到基建。根据美国土木工程师协会(ASCE)对美国基础设施状况的最新评级，美国2021年基础设施状况为“C-”，17个分类类别中，有11个类别属于“D”级。因此，美国基础设施老化的问题亟待解决，基建可能是拜登政府的下一个重要议题。从拜登政府初步提出的基建计划来看，方案主要涵盖了基础设施修复，汽车、电力、建筑等行业的清洁能源升级，一揽子基建计划预算约为2万亿。Q2：基建计划的通过需要国会什么程序?A2：大概率需要通过调和程序以绕开议事阻碍。根据美国宪法规定，除了弹劾、除名国会成员、修改宪法、推翻总统否决权等情况，美国的大多数法案在美国国会只需要遵守“简单多数”通过的原则，即只要一半以上的国会议员同意就可通过。然而由于参议院对讨论的时间没有限制，议员可以通过无限延长发言时间来阻止投票的进行，而只有达到五分之三同意(60票)才可以终止辩论，这种制度被称为“议事阻碍”(filibuster)。近些年来，议事阻碍被使用在国会的次数越来越多，上一届国会(116届)使用议事阻碍的次数达到了300多次。“调和程序”(reconciliation)能够有效绕开议事阻碍，将参议院的辩论时间限制在20小时之内，且只需要简单多数同意即可通过法案。从流程上来看，调和程序的流程并不复杂，因此使用调和程序通过基建计划可能为拜登政府的最优解。从刚刚通过的1.9万亿财政刺激投票结果来看，“调和程序”也发挥了重要作用。参议院投票中，民主党全员通过，但共和党全员反对。财政刺激的议案依靠“调和程序”规定的简单多数通过原则，得以顺利立法。然而，调和程序使用的前提是议案遵守“伯德规则”。在参议院对包含调和程序的议案讨论过程中，任何议员都有权提出该议案违反“伯德规则”，提出程序性反对。之后由议事官对该提议进行裁定，该裁定也可由60名以上的参议员投票进行否决。“伯德规则”规定调和程序议案不得包括以下情景：调和程序的预算提案不改变支出或收入支出或收入的改变与“调和指令”中不符在委员会管辖范围外提交调和决议支出或收入变化仅仅是该经费的非预算组成部分所附带的预算决议中赤字增加到超出调和程序的规定(通常为十年)预算决议中涉及修改社会保障除了程序上的限制外，调和程序并未有在基建计划上使用的先例。“调和程序”的使用要求是Mandatory Spending(即必要支出)，这主要包含社保、医保、医疗救助、收入支持等，基建支出并未有明确包含在内。历史上也并未有使用“调和程序”通过基建法案的先例。Q3：调和程序(reconciliation)今年还能再用吗?A3：2021年10月1日之后可以再用。原则上来说，国会每个财年最多使用三次调和法案，涉及的主题分别为收入、支出和联邦债务限额，每一个主题分别只能使用一次。但是由于通常来说议案会涉及不止一个主题，所以历史经验来看每个财年调和程序最多使用了一次。然而，美国财经年度的划分并不是从1月1日开始，而是10月1日，所以2021年10月1日为2022财年的开始。因此，2021年3月通过的1.9万亿财政刺激并不会占用2022财年的调和程序额度。原则上来说，2021年10月1日之后，调和程序还可以再次使用。历史上来看，2017年也成功使用了两次调和程序。2017年初，特朗普政府试图通过调和程序来通过废除奥巴马医改的法案;2017年12月，特朗普政府再次使用调和程序并成功推出了《减税和就业法》。考虑到拜登政府目前“blue sweep”的局面，想要在2022年国会换届选举之前实现政治诉求的最大化，拜登政府大概率会尽早对基建计划进行提案。因此，如果试图通过调和程序来推进基建计划，拜登政府可能会在最早今年10月将基建计划提交国会。风险提示：美国疫情不确定性，政策变化超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818550976,"gmtCreate":1630420864895,"gmtModify":1676530299571,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMAT\">$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMAT\">$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$</a>??","text":"$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818550976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150314945,"gmtCreate":1624887331487,"gmtModify":1703847046814,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMAT\">$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$</a>????????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMAT\">$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$</a>????????","text":"$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150314945","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114821882,"gmtCreate":1623067163846,"gmtModify":1704195336645,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576483377389898","idStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114821882","repostId":"1171406130","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171406130","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623066365,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171406130?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 19:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"I'm afraid it's hard for Gome to have a name in the \"6.18\" battle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171406130","media":" 锌刻度","summary":"黄光裕，迎来重掌国美的一大挑战。\n一年一度的“6·18”，堪称电商上半年的关键之战，京东、苏宁、拼多多、淘宝等无不摩拳擦掌。\n对国美而言，则是一个检验“复兴”效果的契机。\n“希望通过我们的奋斗，我们的","content":"<p>Huang Guangyu is facing a big challenge to regain control of Gome.</p><p>The annual \"6.18\" can be called the key battle of e-commerce in the first half of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Suning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>, Taobao, etc. are all gearing up.</p><p>For Gome, it is an opportunity to test the effect of \"revival\".</p><p>\"I hope that through our struggle and efforts, we will strive to restore the original market position of the enterprise in the next 18 months,\" Huang Guangyu said boldly on the third day after his official release.</p><p>However, Gome has been lagging behind for more than ten years.</p><p>Its retail sales revenue in 2020 was 44.119 billion yuan, during the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002024\">Suning.com</a>The sales scale of products is 416.315 billion yuan. The two that were comparable in the past are now a full order of magnitude behind.</p><p>So, what cards does Gome, which has turned from conservative to offensive, have to play in this \"6.18\" war? Under the pattern of numerous e-commerce giants, can we find a gap to jump up? Will the home improvement market become the second curve of Gome?</p><p><b>Live broadcast is weak, short videos become advertising sites</b></p><p>\"I heard that Maotai is easy to grab, so I went to Gome.\" E Zijun said.</p><p>E Zijun told Zinc Scale that Maotai on the Gome e-commerce APP \"True Happiness\" is as difficult to grab, but later he learned that it was \"routine\": Xiaomei Bangbang, a sharing commission-earning tool on \"True Happiness\", every successful promotion A member can get a commission of up to 6 yuan, and the so-called easy grab of Maotai is one of its biggest gimmicks.</p><p>In E Zijun's view, \"True Happiness\" followed Taobao's example of launching the live broadcast function, JD.COM's example of launching the 99 membership function, and Pinduoduo's example of launching the game and group snap-up function. \"At best, it's a masterpiece, and at worst, it's just a stitching monster!\"</p><p>The zinc scale survey found that,<b>The above-mentioned function of \"True Happiness\" is still the conventional gameplay of e-commerce, and it is still far from seizing the minds of users.</b></p><p>For example, the live broadcast is regarded as a value growth point by Gome, and Huang Guangyu has high hopes. However, the live broadcast on \"True Happiness\" is quite single, mostly in Gome's offline store scenes, and the clerk directly serves as the anchor.</p><p>According to Times Finance, since the beginning of the year, Gome has required employees to guide customers to place orders through the \"True Happiness\" APP. Among them, the live broadcast assessment target requires that the number of viewers per game should not be less than 30.</p><p>After a week's observation, Zinc Scale found that most live broadcasts lacked popularity, and in most cases, the number of viewers remained in double digits, even less than 30 people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524f5566e23fc3c50ec348a5996b1ccc\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"1476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Viewers below 30</p><p>What's worse,<b>The short videos of \"Really Happy\" are almost all advertisements for manufacturers.</b></p><p>For another example, \"True Happiness\" moves slot machine games into \"True Happiness\". Users can get tiger coins by logging in to the activity page every day to sign in or shop. Those who choose a multiplier of 2 times, 5 times or 8 times for lottery draws, thus having the opportunity to get high tiger coin rewards.</p><p>Little tiger coins can be exchanged for real happy beans, which can be redeemed in cash when shopping. Therefore, there is a saying on the Internet that \"Little tiger fights, and bicycles become motorcycles\".</p><p>The problem is,<b>This style of play is obviously on the edge of the law, and the practice of \"True Happiness\" openly implanting it into the e-commerce system is debatable</b>。</p><p><b>Is there just a bluff behind the \"price war\"?</b></p><p>Actually,<b>Price war is the killer of \"true happiness\".</b></p><p>Near May Day, Huang Guangyu sent an open letter: \"After 34 years of deep involvement in the retail industry, Gome deeply felt the pain of low-price gimmicks in the industry, and was well aware of the difficulty of low-price sustainability. It was convinced that only the real low price with high cost performance, winning by quantity, small profits but quick turnover, and the real support of manufacturer partners could meet the interests of consumers and drive market prosperity.\"</p><p>This means that Gome has raised the banner of \"price war\".</p><p>During the \"6.18\" period, the price war of \"True Happiness\" covered many fields such as electrical appliances, department stores, drinks, etc., in an attempt to find a gap to jump up under the pattern of e-commerce giants.</p><p>In this regard, Zhao Bingcong, who is being renovated, has a deep understanding.</p><p>Because he is in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, it is difficult to dry the clothes on the balcony of Huangmeitian. Zhao Bingcong has suffered before, and this time he wants to buy a dryer for his new home. In comparison, Gome is almost the lowest in the entire network.</p><p>\"The neighbor recommended Siemens WT47W5681W, which also comes with its own sterilization function.\" Zhao Bingcong said that Gome's price is 7,499 yuan, which is 100 yuan less than that of mainstream e-commerce platforms. \"You can buy one or two more T-shirts.\"</p><p>However, Zhao Bingcong told Zinc Scale that only some home appliances have a price advantage in \"True Happiness\", and most of the other products are not dominant, and some are even at a disadvantage.</p><p>In other words,<b>The firepower density of Gome's \"price war\" is not as great as imagined.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>The 2020 annual report shows that as of December 31, 2020, Gome Retail had cash and cash equivalents of 9.597 billion yuan, and the net cash flow generated from operating activities was 1.851 billion yuan. It can be seen that its background in fighting the \"price war\" is not deep.</p><p>In fact, the zinc scale survey found that the current \"Really Happy\" \"Newcomer Exclusive 1 yuan Purchase\" activity is useless because the coupons have already been robbed, but the publicity in the APP has not been pulled down, which has caused new entrants. Consumers are dissatisfied, and the voice of \"don't play if you can't afford it\" is quite high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff327127cb836d1a50c551d49bff644\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Activities without coupons are useless</p><p>This is confirmed from the side,<b>Gome's \"price war\" lacks stamina and urgently needs to replenish ammunition.</b></p><p>An Internet observer told Zinc Scale: \"At a time when Internet traffic is peaking and customer acquisition costs are high, if Gome's low-price subsidy strategy cannot continue to output and cover a large area, the possibility of overtaking in corners will be doubtful.\"</p><p><b>E-commerce falls behind, and it is difficult to break the traffic bottleneck even if the curve attacks</b></p><p>Under the above disadvantages,<b>Gome may find it difficult to overtake in corners in traditional fields</b>In fact, the official is well aware of this, and is actively seeking a breakthrough to solve the problem.</p><p>\"If Gome continues to promote the same e-commerce model as JD.COM Tmall, it will be difficult to form a new pattern and competitiveness.\" He Yangqing, CEO of Gome Investment Company, said in an interview with the media, \"There are very few leading companies in the home improvement industry, and the market share is even less than 1%.\"</p><p>Yeah,<b>Gome has set its sights on the home improvement market.</b></p><p>According to the big data of Aowei Cloud Network, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the decoration demand of the stock housing market is expected to exceed 35 million units, a significant increase of more than 77% compared with the 13th Five-Year Plan period.</p><p>Relevant data shows that with the increase in the proportion of decoration amount in fourth-tier cities and below, the home improvement market will reach a scale of 6 trillion yuan by around 2025, which is four times that of the home appliance industry.</p><p>To this end, Gome is eager to incorporate scheme design, contract signing, material procurement, construction acceptance, etc. into a unified platform to create a closed loop of transparent decoration.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326a3b0e0b05fb12c2c69139cef10128\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gome invested in Dresser, using it as the starting point for entering the home improvement market</p><p>Huang Guangyu said: \"In the industrial chain, we work together to optimize, and all parties standardize the industry step by step, giving everyone more sustainable development space with implementation path.\"</p><p>Nevertheless, but<b>Gome's road to breakthrough may not be smooth</b>。</p><p>Transparent decoration is not new, but its implementation is not ideal. The reason is that the home decoration chain is long, there are many links, and it is difficult to trace. Especially when the popularity of digitalization is low, supervision has become a long-standing problem.</p><p>This cannot be changed overnight.</p><p>In addition, Gome is taking the platform model, which does not involve specific decoration business. In essence, it is still doing traffic business. The problem is that there is no shortage of home improvement platforms in the market, including vertical home improvement platforms such as Qijia.com and comprehensive home improvement platforms such as Tmall Home Improvement. So under the confrontation, why does Gome attract home improvement companies of all sizes?</p><p>Going around in circles, I returned to the problem of how to break through the traffic bottleneck.</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Pessimistic attitude: \"Gome has ambitions for future development, but its prospects and plans are not clear. Considering that its business is facing fierce competition and its development prospects are unclear, it reiterates its'underweight 'rating.\"</p><p>All in all,<b>Gome's rejuvenation still has a long way to go</b>On the one hand, it is necessary to transfer the advantages of offline to online and open up new traffic channels; on the other hand, it is necessary to convert traffic into actual sales, so as to be on the offensive in marketization such as home appliances and home improvement.</p><p>From this point of view, there is not much time left for Gome to redeem itself.</p>","source":"lsy1568158634801","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>I'm afraid it's hard for Gome to have a name in the \"6.18\" battle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nI'm afraid it's hard for Gome to have a name in the \"6.18\" battle\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 锌刻度</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 19:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Huang Guangyu is facing a big challenge to regain control of Gome.</p><p>The annual \"6.18\" can be called the key battle of e-commerce in the first half of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Suning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>, Taobao, etc. are all gearing up.</p><p>For Gome, it is an opportunity to test the effect of \"revival\".</p><p>\"I hope that through our struggle and efforts, we will strive to restore the original market position of the enterprise in the next 18 months,\" Huang Guangyu said boldly on the third day after his official release.</p><p>However, Gome has been lagging behind for more than ten years.</p><p>Its retail sales revenue in 2020 was 44.119 billion yuan, during the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002024\">Suning.com</a>The sales scale of products is 416.315 billion yuan. The two that were comparable in the past are now a full order of magnitude behind.</p><p>So, what cards does Gome, which has turned from conservative to offensive, have to play in this \"6.18\" war? Under the pattern of numerous e-commerce giants, can we find a gap to jump up? Will the home improvement market become the second curve of Gome?</p><p><b>Live broadcast is weak, short videos become advertising sites</b></p><p>\"I heard that Maotai is easy to grab, so I went to Gome.\" E Zijun said.</p><p>E Zijun told Zinc Scale that Maotai on the Gome e-commerce APP \"True Happiness\" is as difficult to grab, but later he learned that it was \"routine\": Xiaomei Bangbang, a sharing commission-earning tool on \"True Happiness\", every successful promotion A member can get a commission of up to 6 yuan, and the so-called easy grab of Maotai is one of its biggest gimmicks.</p><p>In E Zijun's view, \"True Happiness\" followed Taobao's example of launching the live broadcast function, JD.COM's example of launching the 99 membership function, and Pinduoduo's example of launching the game and group snap-up function. \"At best, it's a masterpiece, and at worst, it's just a stitching monster!\"</p><p>The zinc scale survey found that,<b>The above-mentioned function of \"True Happiness\" is still the conventional gameplay of e-commerce, and it is still far from seizing the minds of users.</b></p><p>For example, the live broadcast is regarded as a value growth point by Gome, and Huang Guangyu has high hopes. However, the live broadcast on \"True Happiness\" is quite single, mostly in Gome's offline store scenes, and the clerk directly serves as the anchor.</p><p>According to Times Finance, since the beginning of the year, Gome has required employees to guide customers to place orders through the \"True Happiness\" APP. Among them, the live broadcast assessment target requires that the number of viewers per game should not be less than 30.</p><p>After a week's observation, Zinc Scale found that most live broadcasts lacked popularity, and in most cases, the number of viewers remained in double digits, even less than 30 people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524f5566e23fc3c50ec348a5996b1ccc\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"1476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Viewers below 30</p><p>What's worse,<b>The short videos of \"Really Happy\" are almost all advertisements for manufacturers.</b></p><p>For another example, \"True Happiness\" moves slot machine games into \"True Happiness\". Users can get tiger coins by logging in to the activity page every day to sign in or shop. Those who choose a multiplier of 2 times, 5 times or 8 times for lottery draws, thus having the opportunity to get high tiger coin rewards.</p><p>Little tiger coins can be exchanged for real happy beans, which can be redeemed in cash when shopping. Therefore, there is a saying on the Internet that \"Little tiger fights, and bicycles become motorcycles\".</p><p>The problem is,<b>This style of play is obviously on the edge of the law, and the practice of \"True Happiness\" openly implanting it into the e-commerce system is debatable</b>。</p><p><b>Is there just a bluff behind the \"price war\"?</b></p><p>Actually,<b>Price war is the killer of \"true happiness\".</b></p><p>Near May Day, Huang Guangyu sent an open letter: \"After 34 years of deep involvement in the retail industry, Gome deeply felt the pain of low-price gimmicks in the industry, and was well aware of the difficulty of low-price sustainability. It was convinced that only the real low price with high cost performance, winning by quantity, small profits but quick turnover, and the real support of manufacturer partners could meet the interests of consumers and drive market prosperity.\"</p><p>This means that Gome has raised the banner of \"price war\".</p><p>During the \"6.18\" period, the price war of \"True Happiness\" covered many fields such as electrical appliances, department stores, drinks, etc., in an attempt to find a gap to jump up under the pattern of e-commerce giants.</p><p>In this regard, Zhao Bingcong, who is being renovated, has a deep understanding.</p><p>Because he is in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, it is difficult to dry the clothes on the balcony of Huangmeitian. Zhao Bingcong has suffered before, and this time he wants to buy a dryer for his new home. In comparison, Gome is almost the lowest in the entire network.</p><p>\"The neighbor recommended Siemens WT47W5681W, which also comes with its own sterilization function.\" Zhao Bingcong said that Gome's price is 7,499 yuan, which is 100 yuan less than that of mainstream e-commerce platforms. \"You can buy one or two more T-shirts.\"</p><p>However, Zhao Bingcong told Zinc Scale that only some home appliances have a price advantage in \"True Happiness\", and most of the other products are not dominant, and some are even at a disadvantage.</p><p>In other words,<b>The firepower density of Gome's \"price war\" is not as great as imagined.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>The 2020 annual report shows that as of December 31, 2020, Gome Retail had cash and cash equivalents of 9.597 billion yuan, and the net cash flow generated from operating activities was 1.851 billion yuan. It can be seen that its background in fighting the \"price war\" is not deep.</p><p>In fact, the zinc scale survey found that the current \"Really Happy\" \"Newcomer Exclusive 1 yuan Purchase\" activity is useless because the coupons have already been robbed, but the publicity in the APP has not been pulled down, which has caused new entrants. Consumers are dissatisfied, and the voice of \"don't play if you can't afford it\" is quite high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff327127cb836d1a50c551d49bff644\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Activities without coupons are useless</p><p>This is confirmed from the side,<b>Gome's \"price war\" lacks stamina and urgently needs to replenish ammunition.</b></p><p>An Internet observer told Zinc Scale: \"At a time when Internet traffic is peaking and customer acquisition costs are high, if Gome's low-price subsidy strategy cannot continue to output and cover a large area, the possibility of overtaking in corners will be doubtful.\"</p><p><b>E-commerce falls behind, and it is difficult to break the traffic bottleneck even if the curve attacks</b></p><p>Under the above disadvantages,<b>Gome may find it difficult to overtake in corners in traditional fields</b>In fact, the official is well aware of this, and is actively seeking a breakthrough to solve the problem.</p><p>\"If Gome continues to promote the same e-commerce model as JD.COM Tmall, it will be difficult to form a new pattern and competitiveness.\" He Yangqing, CEO of Gome Investment Company, said in an interview with the media, \"There are very few leading companies in the home improvement industry, and the market share is even less than 1%.\"</p><p>Yeah,<b>Gome has set its sights on the home improvement market.</b></p><p>According to the big data of Aowei Cloud Network, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the decoration demand of the stock housing market is expected to exceed 35 million units, a significant increase of more than 77% compared with the 13th Five-Year Plan period.</p><p>Relevant data shows that with the increase in the proportion of decoration amount in fourth-tier cities and below, the home improvement market will reach a scale of 6 trillion yuan by around 2025, which is four times that of the home appliance industry.</p><p>To this end, Gome is eager to incorporate scheme design, contract signing, material procurement, construction acceptance, etc. into a unified platform to create a closed loop of transparent decoration.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326a3b0e0b05fb12c2c69139cef10128\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gome invested in Dresser, using it as the starting point for entering the home improvement market</p><p>Huang Guangyu said: \"In the industrial chain, we work together to optimize, and all parties standardize the industry step by step, giving everyone more sustainable development space with implementation path.\"</p><p>Nevertheless, but<b>Gome's road to breakthrough may not be smooth</b>。</p><p>Transparent decoration is not new, but its implementation is not ideal. The reason is that the home decoration chain is long, there are many links, and it is difficult to trace. Especially when the popularity of digitalization is low, supervision has become a long-standing problem.</p><p>This cannot be changed overnight.</p><p>In addition, Gome is taking the platform model, which does not involve specific decoration business. In essence, it is still doing traffic business. The problem is that there is no shortage of home improvement platforms in the market, including vertical home improvement platforms such as Qijia.com and comprehensive home improvement platforms such as Tmall Home Improvement. So under the confrontation, why does Gome attract home improvement companies of all sizes?</p><p>Going around in circles, I returned to the problem of how to break through the traffic bottleneck.</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Pessimistic attitude: \"Gome has ambitions for future development, but its prospects and plans are not clear. Considering that its business is facing fierce competition and its development prospects are unclear, it reiterates its'underweight 'rating.\"</p><p>All in all,<b>Gome's rejuvenation still has a long way to go</b>On the one hand, it is necessary to transfer the advantages of offline to online and open up new traffic channels; on the other hand, it is necessary to convert traffic into actual sales, so as to be on the offensive in marketization such as home appliances and home improvement.</p><p>From this point of view, there is not much time left for Gome to redeem itself.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/m-9VfbcT8jzObWdeYZgBzA\"> 锌刻度</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f78d2f00cbc26b40aac0942a0a777ee","relate_stocks":{"00493":"国美零售"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/m-9VfbcT8jzObWdeYZgBzA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171406130","content_text":"黄光裕，迎来重掌国美的一大挑战。\n一年一度的“6·18”，堪称电商上半年的关键之战，京东、苏宁、拼多多、淘宝等无不摩拳擦掌。\n对国美而言，则是一个检验“复兴”效果的契机。\n“希望通过我们的奋斗，我们的努力，力争用未来18个月的时间，使企业恢复原有的市场地位。”黄光裕于正式获释第三天放出豪言。\n然而，国美掉队已有十余年。\n其2020年零售销售收入为441.19亿元，同期苏宁易购的商品销售规模为4163.15亿元，昔日比肩的两者，如今差了足足一个量级。\n那么，从保守转为进攻的国美，在这场“6·18”大战中，有哪些牌可打？在电商巨头林立的格局之下，能否寻找到上跃的空隙？家装市场，会成为国美的第二曲线吗？\n直播乏力，短视频沦为广告地盘\n“听说茅台好抢，才去的国美。”鄂子君如是说。\n鄂子君告诉锌刻度，国美电商APP“真快乐”上的茅台一样难抢，后来才知道是被“套路”了：“真快乐”上的分享赚佣金工具小美帮帮，每成功推广一位会员即可获得最高6元的佣金，而所谓的茅台好抢正是其最大噱头之一。\n在鄂子君看来，“真快乐”效仿淘宝推出了直播功能，效仿京东推出了九九会员功能，效仿拼多多推出了游戏、拼团抢购功能，“往好了说是集大成，往坏了说不就是缝合怪嘛！”\n锌刻度调查发现，“真快乐”的上述功能依然是电商的常规玩法，离抢占用户心智尚远。\n譬如，直播被国美视为价值增长点，被黄光裕寄予厚望，不过“真快乐”上的直播颇为单一，多为国美线下门店场景，店员直接兼任主播。\n据《时代财经》报道，从年初开始，国美要求员工引导顾客通过“真快乐”APP下单，其中直播考核目标要求每场观看人数不得低于30人。\n经过一周的观察，锌刻度发现多数直播人气匮乏，多数情况下观众人数维系在两位数，甚至有低于30人情况存在。观众人数低于30\n更为糟糕的是，“真快乐”的短视频几乎全为厂商的宣传广告。\n再譬如，“真快乐”把老虎机游戏搬入“真快乐”，用户每天登陆活动页面签到或购物就能获得小虎币，者选择2倍、5倍或8倍的倍率进行抽奖，从而有机会获得高额小虎币奖励。\n而小虎币可兑换真快乐豆，后者在购物时可抵现，因而网上有“小虎搏一搏，单车变摩托”的说法。\n问题在于，这个打法明显游走在法律边缘，“真快乐”堂而皇之将其植入电商体系的做法值得商榷。\n“价格战”背后只是虚张声势？\n其实，价格战才是“真快乐”的杀手锏。\n临近五一，黄光裕发了一封公开信：“深耕零售业34年，国美深感行业低价噱头化之痛，深知低价可持续性之难，深信只有高性价比、以量取胜、薄利多销的真低价，厂商伙伴的真支持，才能符合消费者的利益和带动市场繁荣。”\n这意味着，国美祭起“价格战”的大旗。\n在“6·18”期间，“真快乐”的价格战范围覆盖电器、百货、酒水等多个领域，以图在电商巨头林立的格局之下，寻找上跃的空隙。\n对此，正在装修的赵冰聪深有体会。\n由于身处江浙地区，遇到黄梅天阳台的衣服难以晾干，赵冰聪之前吃过苦头，这次想为新家添置一台烘干机，对比下来国美差不多为全网最低。\n“邻居推荐的是西门子WT47W5681W，还自带除菌功能。”赵冰聪表示国美售价7499元，到手价比主流电商平台少了100元，“可以再多买一两件T恤了。”\n不过，赵冰聪告诉锌刻度，“真快乐”上仅部分家电具备价格优势，其余商品多数不占优，甚至有的还处于劣势。\n换而言之，国美的“价格战”的火力密度并没有想象的那么大。\n据国美零售2020年年报显示，截至2020年12月31日，国美零售拥有现金及现金等价物为95.97亿元，经营活动产生的现金流量净额为18.51亿元，可见其打“价格战”的底蕴并不深厚。\n事实上，锌刻度调查发现，眼下“真快乐”的“新人专享1元购”活动，因为优惠券早已被抢完，该活动形同虚设，可APP中的宣传并未拉下，从而引起新入的消费者不满，“玩不起就不要玩”声量颇高。没有券活动形同虚设\n这从侧面印证了，国美的“价格战”后劲不足，亟需补充弹药。\n一名互联网观察人士告诉锌刻度：“在互联网流量见顶、获客成本高企的当下，国美的低价补贴打法如若不能持续输出、大面积覆盖，那弯道超车的可能性就存疑。”\n电商掉队，曲线出击也难破流量瓶颈\n上述种种劣势之下，国美恐难在传统领域上演弯道超车，对此官方其实也是心知肚明，进而也在积极寻求一个解题的突破口。\n“国美如果继续推进和京东天猫一样的电商模式，很难形成新的格局和竞争力。”国美投资公司CEO何阳青在接受媒体采访时表示，“家装行业头部公司非常少，市场份额甚至不足1%。”\n是的，国美将突围的目光瞄向了家装市场。\n据奥维云网大数据显示，在十四五期间存量房市场装修需求预计可超过3500万套，相比十三五期间大幅提升超过77%。\n而相关数据显示，随着四线及以下城市装修金额比例上升，家装市场到2025年左右达到6万亿元的规模，这一规模是家电行业的四倍。\n为此，国美渴望将方案设计、合同签订、材料采购、施工验收等纳入统一平台，打造一个透明装修的闭环。国美入股打扮家，以其为切入家装市场的抓手\n黄光裕表示：“在产业链里我们协同进行优化，各方一步一步把这个行业进行规范，给大家更多的可持续的而且有实施路径的发展空间。”\n尽管如此，但国美的突围之路或并不平坦。\n透明装修并非新鲜事物，然而落地却不太理想，究其原因为家装链条长、环节多、追溯难，特别是在数字化普及较低的情况下，监管成为老大难的问题。\n这并非一朝一夕可以改变的。\n此外，国美走的是平台模式，不下场涉及具体的装修业务，本质上仍然做的是流量生意，问题在于市场并不缺家装平台，既有齐家网等垂直家装平台，也有天猫家装等综合家装平台，那么对垒之下，国美何以吸引大大小小的家装公司？\n兜兜转转，又回到流量瓶颈如何突破这个问题上。\n对此，摩根大通持悲观态度：“国美对未来发展具有野心，但前景及计划未见明朗，考虑到业务面对激烈竞争及发展前景未明，重申‘减持’评级。”\n总而言之，国美的复兴之路依然任重道远，一方面需将线下的优势转移至线上，开拓流量新渠道，另外一方面则需将流量转化为实际销量，从而在家电、家装等市场化守势为攻势。\n这么来看，留给国美自我救赎的时间不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00493":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}